The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re going to help you win big money in the first Week 3 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Tonight’s MVP landscape is a pretty complicated one, because the pricing is soft enough that we can safely play a host of high-upside options in the flex spots, even if we roster a QB up top.
The chalk is obviously going to be Gardner Minshew II, who gets a great matchup against a weak Miami secondary that’s now missing Byron Jones (out with a groin injury). It shouldn’t be too difficult to stack up two or three of his WRs and RBs and come back with some high-profile Dolphins, though the winning combination might leave a considerable amount of salary on the table.
Ryan Fitzpatrick makes for a nice pivot, since the Jaguars have an effective rookie back in James Robinson who could rack up some points and keep Minshew from making value. I’d certainly entertain Fitzmagic-at-MVP combos with one (or both) of the Jaguars RBs (pass-catching back Chris Thompson being the other).
In one scenario, the Jags would grab an early lead behind the running of Robinson, with the veteran Miami QB storming back via several TD passes against a defense that’s no longer a stalwart unit.
In the other, the Dolphins grab an early lead via Fitzpatrick, struggle to move the ball on the ground and get most of their yardage and points via their WRs (Keelan Cole has some incredible hands and is massively underpriced on DK) and a drive or two that relies heavily on Thompson.
I’m very high on Mike Gesicki (who runs nearly 80% of his routes directly out of the slot) and I’m finding a way to get him into most of my builds. If you’ve been following him since last season, you know that his monster Week 2 performance (11-130-1 on eight targets) was not a fluke, and that he’s a talented pass-catching tight end with tons of upside in just about any matchup.
Spending down for a non-QB at MVP allows you almost total freedom in stacking up the best offensive options on DraftKings, though I might not go too heavy with this approach on FanDuel. The game total and defensive strengths of both teams seem to point to big days for one or both signal callers.
UPDATE: With the news that DJ Chark will sit out TNF, I’m making a little more room for Laviska Shenault, Jr. and Chris Conley.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Rely too heavily on either of these defenses in your builds – though using a DST in 1 or 1 out of 10 large-field GPPs could be good way to establish some variance. Fitzpatrick tossed three INTs in Week 1 against the Patriots, and we know he’s capable of throwing more than that (and a pick six).
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your offensive selections.
DON’T: Be afraid to use just one or two players from a single team if you think a blowout is a possibility.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time to rock and roll. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.
Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.
General GPP Note:
Everyone and their brother is going to be using DeSean Jackson/Marvin Jones/Boston Scott/Davante Adams. I will rarely have a lineup with more than one of those players this week. Do not stack up that chalk and expect to be different unless you mix in some incredibly low-owned upside elsewhere.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
It’s time for our Week 16 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD($6,900) DK ($6,000)
The price continues to rise, and now he’s the mostexpensive TE on both sites. I might stay away from him in a few of my GPPs becauseof what promises to be relatively high ownership, but I’m locking him into cashgames.
FD($6,500) DK ($6,100)
We nailed Waller last week as he exploded for 10-122-0 and was the top-scoring TE despite failing to reach the end zone. This week we could see him snag a score along with his normal smattering of 6-10 targets/catches and 50-100 yards. He’s a solid play in all formats.
FD($6,000) DK ($4,400)
The price is very reasonable on both sites, and it almost lookslike a mistake on DK. Hooper has immense upside and we know that teamssometimes Julio Jones – forcing Hooper into more targets. The Jags defense is afar cry from the unit it was in 2018, and Hooper could go off in Week 16 in asneaky good spot.
FD($6,500) DK ($5,900)
Andrews seems to fly under the radar every weekin GPPs, mainly because there are so many ways for the Ravens to beat you andfolks don’t want to tie their hopes to a TE when so much of their success on thelegs of Lamar Jackson. Andrews is risky, to be sure, but he’s got 25-point upsideand saw eight targets in the Week 4 loss to Cleveland. He’s also pretty cheapon DK.
FD($6,100) DK ($4,700)
Henry is a huge risk in DFS, as he goes through serious scoringdroughts and is typically a boom-or-bust GPP play – and this week is no different.I’m willing to take the chance in Week 16 because the Raiders are among the worstat defending TEs.
FD ($5,700) DK ($4,200)
Death, taxes and playing TEs against the Cards. That’s what the Hollister play boils down to in Week 16. I don’t love the price on FD, but he does have 15-20 point upside in the matchup.
FD($5,100) DK ($3,200)
The Giants will be without Evan Engram once again, so Smithshould maintain an expanded role on offense over the Giants’ final two games.He’s without the monster upside f his fellow receivers, but he’s affordable onDK and could get you 10-15 points.
JaredCook, NO at TEN (FD $6,600, DK $5,000) – GPP only
TaysomHill, NO at TEN (FD $5,200) FD GPP only since he’s a QB on DK
DallasGoedert, PHI vs. DAL (FD $5,900, DK $4,200) – GPP only
MikeGesicki, MIA vs. CIN (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) – GPP punt
TylerEifert, CIN at MIA (FD $4,700, DK $3,200) – GPP punt
FD($4,500) DK ($4,000)
The Ravens could be thetop defense of Week 16 in all formats, but they’re especially attractive incash games against a Browns offense that’s thrown in the towel for 2019 and isprone to multiple turnovers.
FD($4,900) DK ($3,900)
Pittsburgh’s DST is a juggernaut in DFS and has just two games this season where they’ve not reached double digits. The Jets? They’re still the Jets, possibly even more so now that 2019 is basically “in the tank.”
FD($5,000) DK ($3,500)
You’re getting a discount on DK and the Broncos unit will be happy to face a less formidable opponent, as they’ve been tested the past five weeks up against the Chiefs, Texans, Chargers, Bills, and Vikings. They’re playable in cash or GPP.
FD($4,400) DK ($3,700)
The unit has its flaws, but the opponent turns theball over quite a bit. I’m liking the price on both sites and the Seahawks havethe ability to turn this game into more of a defensive slog than the Cards areused to.
FD($3,800) DK ($2,700)
The Saints are a huge bargain on DK at just$2,700 and could see higher ownership with Derrick Henry looking doubtful toplay this week. I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs, and they may even be cashviable despite their recent struggles.
FD($3,800) DK ($2,800)
The Giants could always do some scoring, which means the Redskins can’t be used in cash games, but I like the price and what promises to be low ownership in GPPs. Jump aboard and take the risk.
It’s time for our Week 14 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD ($6,700) DK ($5,900)
The high-price tight ends haven’t been as reliable as we’d like and Kittle is coming off a disappointing performance against the Ravens, but he’s a lock-n-load cash game play this week facing the Saints indoors. If you’re not looking for value, I’m fine using big George here.
FD ($6,200) DK ($5,800)
With Josh Jacobs a true game-time decision, I’ll be snaggingadditional shares of Waller as his usage should probably increase in Week 14. Thebig TE caught 7-100-0 on nine targets last week vs. the Chiefs, and he’s a goodcash game play again facing the Titans.
FD($6,300) DK ($4,600)
Doyle is a solid play in all formats this week though hisprice has come up substantially after a big Wek 13 performance (6-73-1 on 11 targets).He’s worth considering for cash games and GPPs.
FD($7,100) DK ($6,200)
We’re getting a huge price break on Kelce thisweek on DK, but he remains the top priced TE on both sites. As consistent asany tight end in football, but he’s relegated to GPP-only this week against thePatriots.
FD ($6,400) DK ($5,100)
Henry was a disaster last week but is in a good bounce-backspot facing the Jaguars in Week 14. Even after the stinker in Denver, he’saveraging around 62 receiving yards per game – so I’m willing to give himanother shot in GPPs in Week 14.
FD ($6,600) DK ($5,600)
Andrews is somewhatmatchup proof and did well against the top-rated defense against TEs last week,so we should have shares of him in GPPs. He’s facing the Bills this time around,and they’ve done a good job defending TEs.
FD ($6,600) DK ($6,000)
Hooper doesn’t have an injury designation and returns froma three-game absence, and we’re hoping he’ll continue his breakout season. TheFalcons also get Julio Jones back, so I’m looking at Hooper in GPP only. Thisgame could get pretty high-scoring.
FD($5,600) DK ($4,100)
We discussed how Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value playanymore, but now he’s questionable with an illness that limited him in practiceon Thursday and Friday. He has a good matchup against the Dolphins if he suitsup and isn’t facing a snap count.
FD ($5,800) DK ($4,300)
McDonaldmakes the value play list this week because of the matchup against the Cards,who just cannot stop TEs. He’s been quiet lately, but the Steelers need to getoffense from somewhere in this game, and McDonald is a low-risk optionconsidering the price and the opponent.
FD($5,400) DK ($4,000)
Gesickijust keeps producing, and $4K is still too cheap for what he brings to thetable. The Jets defense is a wreck right now and the Miami offense has beenclicking. Get Gesicki in there if you need salary relief.
FD ($4,800) DK ($4,400)
Rudolph is a top value play this week facing the Lions, andhe has at least four catches in his last three games. That sounds even betterwhen you factor in his red zone usage – as he’s scored five TDs in his lastfour contests.
IanThomas, CAR at ATL (FD $4,000, DK $2,500) – Punt Cash or GPP (He’s this week’sTyler Higbee)
JaredCook, NO vs. SF (FD $6,500, DK $4,200) – GPP only in tough matchup
DavidNjoku, CLE vs. CIN (FD $4,900, DK $3,500) – Risky GPP but high upside
FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)
The Packers have themost favorable matchup of the week (at home vs. WAS) and are an option in allformats. They aren’t cheap, but if you’re spending up, just plug them in.
FD($4,300) DK ($3,500)
The Steelers DST isstill way to cheap and you get a nice discount on both sites. This unit is almosta lock for 10 points every week.
FD ($4,800) DK ($3,800)
This isn’t a high-scoring defense, but the matchup could yield 10+points if they can create some turnovers. If the Vikings can salt this one awaywith the running game, it’ll help the cause of the DST.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)
Andy Dalton is back for the Bengals, but I don’tthink he’ll be having a lot of fun against the bruising Browns unit that stompedthe Steelers a couple weeks ago.
FD($4,600) DK ($2,800)
Probably a DK play only.It’s risky because they are on the road, but the matchup in Jacksonville couldsee the Chargers DST notching their best week since Week 5 against the Broncos.
FD($4,000) DK ($2,400) Last week we had the Jags againstthe Bucs, and that wasn’t even a mistake despite the Jags taking the loss. TheColts are a similar risk but this matchup bodes well for GPPs.
It’s time for our Week 13 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate, focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!
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FD($7,100) DK ($7,200)
Weather is playing a key role in a few games this week, with cold rain being the main culprit. It’s going to be about 35 degrees in KC with no precipitation in the forecast, so I’m perfectly fine rolling with Kelce and his 8-10 targets as my main cash gameplay. He’s coming off his best game since Week 2.
FD($6,100) DK ($5,500)
Waller is cheaper than Kelce and doesn’t have quite the flooror upside, but he’s still worth a look in all formats if you need the savingsat TE. It’s frustrating to see Waller without much red-zone volume and justthree TDs on the season, but he should be more involved against the Chiefs inWeek 13.
FD($7,000) DK ($6,100)
Kittle isn’t listed on the injury report but is reportedly dealing with a bone chip in his ankle – which could make him a little uncomfortable moving forward. But he returned from a two-game absence with a huge Week 12 (6-129-1 against the Packers). Sunday’s road matchup with the Ravens is a tougher draw and the weather in Baltimore projects to be a cold rain. He’s a GPP play only this week but still has an upside.
FD($6,600) DK ($5,800)
Henry is coming off a Week 12 bye and should have his usualshare of looks (54 targets in seven games this season) against the Broncos inMile High. He’s averaging an excellent 70 receiving yards per game, making himone of the more reliable tight ends in fantasy and a solid GPP play in Week 13.
FD($6,500) DK ($5,700)
Andrews is in the sameboat as Kittle this week with regard to the game conditions and the difficultmatchup, but he’s a little bit cheaper. He’s a talented player and way too goodto fade completely, but my shares will be slightly diminished this week andthere are a few guys I like better.
FD($6,900) DK ($6,700)
Ertz (hamstring) was a limited participant in Friday’spractice and could always miss this game, but the Eagles are optimistic he’llplay. Goedert would see a huge increase in snaps and volume if Ertz is inactiveagainst Miami, but Ertz is worth rolling out in some GPPs if he’s good to go.
FD($5,200) DK ($4,100)
Goedert could be an even better option if Zach Ertz misses,but he’s a fine enough play even with the Eagles No. 1 TE available. You’regetting a huge discount on both sites, however, if Ertz is inactive – so he’sbound to get chalky in GPPs and could make a fine enough cash play.
FD($5,600) DK ($4,200)
Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value play anymore, but he’ stillGPP-viable and gets a great matchup against the Bengals. He’s now up to28-282-5 on the season, with most of that production coming after his Week 6breakout against the Cowboys.
FD($5,100) DK ($4,400)
Olsen is easy to forget in this week’s list of availableTEs in the main slate, but he’s up to 68 targets this season and has now hauledin at least five passes in three straight games. In Week 13 he faces a Redskinsdefense that’s allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns this season – so he’sworth considering for GPPs.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,400)
Gesickibroke through with his first TD of 2019 in Week 12 and should get a handful oftargets this week against the Eagles. He’s still pretty cheap on both sites.
FD($5,500) DK ($2,500)
Higbee will be Jared Goff’s main TE on Sunday with GeraldEverett out for Week 13. He saw six targets last week against the Ravens and hasnow played 70 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps the past two weeks – a ratethat should increase in Arizona.
JimmyGraham, GB at NYG (FD $5,800, DK $3,800) – GPP
JonnuSmith, TEN vs. JAC (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) – GPP (If Walker sits)
NoahFant, DEN vs. LAC (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) – GPP
TylerEifert, CIN vs. NYJ (FD $4,700, DK $2,800) – GPP
FD($3,700) DK ($3,500)
The Steelers DST pricing is all messed up on FD, so they’re the easy pick for top DST on that site this week, even against a team that gave them fits (and hits!) a couple of weeks ago. I might look elsewhere in DK, but the discount is just too significant on FD to pass up.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,600)
The Eagles are usually GPP-only but are decent cash gameplay this week facing the Dolphins, especially considering how well they did against the dangerous Seahawks last week. They’re expensive on FD but you get a discount on DK.
FD($4,900) DK ($3,700)
Jets fans know that you should never get too comfortable with theJets defense, and that heartache is just around the corner. While I’d love toinclude this unit in my cash game recommendations, it’s just too risky.
FD($4,700) DK ($3,800)
The Panthers defense has its problems, so they’renot really viable in cash games – but this is a fine enough matchup for GPPsand the Redskins offense is an excellent one to pick on.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)
This game could get interesting.Cold rains are an awful weather component for football, and Daniel Jones hasbeen known to fumble. The Packers are a sneaky good play this week against theGiants, though their struggles against the run should limit your ownership toGPPs.
FD($4,400) DK ($3,300)
The Jags make an excellent play this week at home vs. the Bucs – ateam that turns the ball over frequently and doesn’t have a very dynamicrunning game. They’re on my list of bargain options.
FD($4,100) DK ($3,200)
The Rams DST turned in areal stinker last week against the Ravens, but the matchup this week is muchmore favorable, and they had scored 58 DK points total over the past four weeksbefore the negative performance in Week 12. Expect Aaron Donald and the rest ofthis unit to give Kyler Murray some trouble.
Also consider: Colts,Browns
It’s time for our Week 12 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate, focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you take it down!
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FD($6,200) DK ($5,700)
Waller’s price has risen on DraftKings, but dropped a few hundred on FD – but that’s just minutiae. After a seven-target week and another 7-78-0 tacked onto his season total (56-666-3), we’ve got to see him as a solid cash game pick in a week without many sure things. He’s a much-matured player now, has a relatively safe floor and has plenty of upside against the Jets.
FD($6,100) DK ($6,000)
It’s a concern that his price jumped $1K on DK, but he’s coming off back-to-back 11-targets weeks, is looking a lot more like his old self and silencing his critics. I’m not going to overthink my cash game TEs this week. I think Waller and Ertz are the best options unless you’re paying down for a bargain like Mike Gesicki (more on him later).
FD($5,600) DK ($4,200)
Last week I mentioned that Griffin gets no respect in theDK pricing algorithm, and it’s been corrected – kind of. He’s still a solid GPPplay on both sites and has as much upside as any TE this week, coming off a5-109-1 game in Week 11.
FD($6,000) DK ($4,500)
Cookhas a difficult matchup in Week 12 facing the Panthers, who defend TEs quitewell. He’s not my favorite choice this week and his price is a little too highon FD, but his ownership will likely be restricted to Saints stacks, and that’sa good way to get exposure to him in GPPs.
FD($5,100) DK ($4,300)
Coming off two big performance then a Week 11bye, Hollister’s price has shot up to $4,300 on DK, but I think he’s worth it.I’m, not convinced he’s a great cash game play just yet, but he’s certainly gotthe upside to make him a solid GPP play (10-62-1 in Week 10 at SF).
FD($5,100) DK ($4,100)
Olsen had just five targets last week but he went for 5-57-0. If he can have another day like that and add a TD, he’ll be in good shape. This game could get high-scoring (45.5 total), so the game script could help his cause, and Olsen is a target that Kyle Allen trusts.
FD($5,400) DK ($3,600)
The Bucs are playing games with us. Brate was targeted 14times in Week 11, hauling in 10-73-0. He’s on my list of GPP plays because of thematchup and the obvious upside, but I’ll limit my exposure when I feel like I’mgetting toyed with.
FD($5,200) DK ($3,700)
I wouldn’t play Goedert with Zach Ertz, but they both havesolid matchups this week against Seattle. He’s actually been more consistentthan Ertz over the past week weeks, so he’s another cash game option if you’dprefer not to spend up, but I’ll be focusing on him in GPPs because he’s scoreda TD in three of his last four games and has two-TD upside this week.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,400)
Gesickihas been solid, and if the Dolphins are serious about beating the Browns, they’llbe using him. Joe Schobert is questionable, the Browns defense is missing someimportant defensive line components, and Gesicki is an athletic, big-play orientedTE who’s been woefully underutilized. He’s had six targets in each of the lastthree, but that’s just not enough. We could see a 10-target game for him in Wek12, and I’ll be way ahead of the field on my ownership in GPPs.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,100)
Eifert’s price is stilldown and he’s probably going to see more usage in Week 12 against a Steelersdefense that ranks 28th in the NFL against TEs. He’s probably dependenton a TD to be worth using in GPPs, but he did see 9 targets and haul in 6-74-0in Week 9 against the Rams, so he’s got some upside.
BenWatson, NE vs. DAL (FD $5,300, DK $3,100) – GPP
JonnuSmith, TEN vs. JAC (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) – GPP
NoahFant, DEN at BUF (FD $5,100, DK $3,900) – GPP
O.J.Howard, TB vs. NO (FD $5,000, DK $3,300) – GPP
BlakeJarwin, DAL at DET (FD $4,500, DK $2,900) – Punt
FosterMoreau, OAK (FD $4,700, DK $2,800) – Punt
FD($5,000) DK ($3,700)
The Bears, with theirability tot get to the QB, have to be one of the top plays of Week 12 in allformats. Daniel Jones, for as good as he’s looked, is a fumbler. He fumbles theball over and over, and he’ll be in that position on Sunday, likely dodgingBears lineman and being forced into bad throws.
FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)
The Bengals are terrible and the Steelers DST has been one of the most productive units in DFS. They had a bad week against the Browns, but are in an excellent spot for a rebound in Week 12.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,400)
It’s not my favorite thing to go after the Broncos in Mile High, but the Bills should be up to the task of stopping this mediocre offense and creating some turnovers by their inexperienced QB. They are a consensus top-five pick DST in Week 12.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,100)
This is a great matchup on paper, but the Lions could be down some key defensive players in Week 12 (Trey Flowers included), so my use of them will be restricted to GPPs, with the possibility of multiple Dwayne Haskins gaffes still lurking as a distinct possibility. Get some shares in tourneys.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)
The Raiders defenselooks better every week, and the Jets can get a little silly with the turnovers,as you all know. Clelin Farrell and Max Crosby make a mean defensive end combo,so Sam Darnold better be on his toes.
FD($4,200) DK ($2,800)
I’m not looking at too many punts this week for DST, but the Jags make my list. They’ve had a couple of bad losses over the past couple weeks and will likely come out pretty fired up in this divisional matchup. I’m not sold on Ryan Tannehill, and if they can contain Derrick Henry to a relatively pedestrian day, we could see some results.
FD($4,100) DK ($3,600)
The Seattle DST is massivelyunderpriced, especially against an Eagles team that’s missing so many of its offensivecomponents. I’ll have some shares of them in contrarian GPP stacks using Jacob Hollisterand Chris Carson (without Russell Wilson).
It’s time for our Week 11 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!
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With 6-53-2 in Week 10, things worked out for Andrews, who we listed as our top GPP choice. There’s a dearth of viable cash game options this week, so even in a tough matchup against the Texans, Andrews is likely the best we’ve got. You can always spend down at TE in cash games and assume a little more risk since it’s a generally inconsistent position in terms of week-to-week production, but Andrews should be considered an elite TE at this point.
It’s a ugly week at TE. Cook rarely can be considered a lock forproduction, but he’s been remarkably consistent for the past three weeks withdouble-digit DK points in all three, and his 10 targets last week were aseason-high for him. His price has comeup on FD, but DK still has him listed as just $4,400, making him a huge bargainin a great matchup (TB ranks 31st against TEs)
Waller has just as much upside as any TE this week based on matchup and typical volume, but Derek Carr is spreading the ball around more to his other TEs and WRs like Hunter Renfrow. Waller is worth a look in GPPs, but he’s no cash game lock.
Ebronis actually the discounted Colts TE this week, coming in at a remarkably low $3,600after a 12-target game in Week 10 against the Dolphins. His ownership might bea little higher than Doyle’s based on the pricing.
It’s fascinating to watch Doyle and Ebron flip back andforth on DK, with Doyle priced up this week despite just four targets to Ebron’s12 a week ago. Both make sense for GPPs, though it would take some hutzpah toplay them both together. That’s not recommended.
Hockenson gets a favorable matchup against Dallas, as the Cowboys are30th in the league against TEs based on DK points allowed. The rookie parlayedhis six targets into 3-47-0 last week facing the Bears, and he gets Jeff Driskelagain this week. He’s not a lock, but worth sprinkling into some GPPs.
Dwelley only hauled in three of his seven targets last week,but he faces the worst defense in the league against TEs and should have moresuccess against the Cards than he did against Seattle. George Kittle is listedas doubtful for Week 11.
Eifert’s stock is on therise, as theBengals have installed Ryan Finley down the stretch and a big-bodied, sturdytarget like Tyler could offer a security blanket for the rookie. This week hegets a favorable matchup against a Raiders team that has struggled in passdefense and will likely allow multiple dump-offs to Eifert and the RBs.
Griffin gets no respect ion the DK pricing algorithm, andthat’s just fine with me. I’ll have tons of shares of the Jets TE, especiallywith Chris Herndon out for the season and no longer a threat to cut into hissnaps and targets.
Olsen had 10 targetslast week and he could have a huge impact in this game if the Falcons stack thebox against CMC. I love the Panthers offense as a whole this week, as last week’sperformance vs. the Saints was probably an anomaly.
FanDuel must have something against Rudolph, because he’s just $4,500 there. For a guy with four TDs in his last four weeks, that’s way too low. Use him in GPPs at TE or flex if you aren’t loading up on Dalvin Cook and the run game.
ZachErtz, PHI vs. NE (FD $6,200, DK $5,000) – GPP
NoahFant, DEN at MIN (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) – GPP
O.J.Howard, TB vs. NO (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) – GPP
MikeGesicki, MIA vs. BUF (FD $5,100, DK $3,500) – GPP
BlakeJarwin, DAL at DET (FD $4,500, DK $2,900) – Punt
NickBoyle, BAL (FD $4,900, DK $2,700) – Punt
In Week 11, the Bills facethe Dolphins. They had a poor showing versus the Browns in Week 10 but scored10+ against this Miami team in Week 7 when Preston Williams was healthy andthey had more viable RBs. They offer a solid floor and upside this week and shouldbe a cash game staple, and the price on DK is still affordable.
With 14 sacks over theirpast four games, the Saints make for a solid option in all formats against abanged-up Falcons offensive unit. They’re cash-viable with 20-point upside inGPPs.
The 49ers defense gets a favorable matchup and is one of thebest units in the game, and they didn’t take advantage a couple weeks ago in Arizona.Now, on their home turf, we could see a completely different story emerge. They’re solid play in all formats.
This might be the cheapest you’ll see the Patriots defense the restof the way out this season on DK, where they’ve scored double digits in everyweek of the season except Week 9 and their bye. They should easily be $4Kagainst a banged-up Eagles team that’s lacking in consistent offensive options.The best option for GPPs (20+ upside) and cash-viable as well.
The Vikings defensive line must be licking theircollective chops at the prospect of going after Brandon Allen on their hometurf. This week could feature their highest DST score since the dropped 16 DKpoints on Atlanta in Week 1.
The Raiders face one ofthe worst teams in the league, if not the worst, and should put plenty of pressureon Ryan Finley despite their issues with pass coverage. They might have a lowerflor than some of these other STs listed, but they have just as much upside asanyone except the Pats and Vikings.
The Cowboys are relatively inexpensive, because they’re a risky bunchto get into shootouts and don’t create a ton of turnovers. They have muchhigher upside this week against a poor run defense (they can slow it down andyou can pair Ezekiel Elliott with the Cowboys DST in a few GPP builds)) and apositive game script for the defense against Jeff Driskel.
TheColts are a boom-or-bust GPP play this week, as they face the Jaguars and NickFoles. I’m willing to consider them at home against a QB who could be rusty,especially sine they have a solid run defense and Foles might be forced to throwa bit more than he’d like in his first game back.
The Jets face a rookie QB (Dwayne Haskins) and have looked muchbetter defensively the past few weeks. They’re a viable play in all formatsthis week and still won’t cost you much.
The Ravens DST has a toughmatchup, but the Texans are not immune to mistakes. They’re a risky play butcheap on both sites and GPP viable.
The Panthers might be my favorite punt defense this week in GPPs,because they have the best RB in fantasy and the Falcons are a mistake-prone groupmissing their top RB and TE Austin Hooper, a key safety valve for Matt Ryan.
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Michael Thomas, Jared Cook and Mike Evans are my guys, though if youre skittish about using a TE you can go with Alvin Kamara or Chris Godwin.
It’s time for our Week 10 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!
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No tight end in the NFL has more double-digit fantasy performancesthis season, as Hooper has averaged 18.6 FPPG on DK and 14.63 on FD. Thematchup may be tough on paper, but the Falcons will be throwing the ball inthis one and Hooper is a lock for 7-10 targets each week. He’s got the highestfloor and a Top 3 ceiling.
Kelce caught 7-62-0 on nine targets last week, but with Patrick Mahomeslooking ready to suit up for Week 10, we might see the big TE finally reachpaydirt for only the second time since mid-September, when he dropped 7-107-1on the Raiders. I’m expecting a stat line closer to that than the morepedestrian totals we’ve been seeing.
The exciting young TE isfar from a cash game lock against a Bengals defense that may struggle tocontain Baltimore’s running game. Game script may dictate a conservativeapproach from the Ravens and they might just not need much from Andrews. But ifCincy can somehow keep this thing close, we could see monster day from him.
The Rams are without Brandin Cooks, and both WR JoshReynolds and Everett get a big bump this week against the Steelers. Everett hassome of the biggest GPP upside on this slate, and his price isn’t oppressiveenough that we are forced to compromise at other positions. He has three gamesof 15+ DK points so far, including a 23.6-point effort against Seattle in Week5 – so get him in some of your Sunday builds.
I’m notgoing to begin to parse how the pricing algorithms on FD and DK are this wonkywhen it comes to Ebron and his teammate (discussed below), but there’s merit toplaying both of these guys in GPPs against the Dolphins, who have done a betterjob keeping games close the past few weeks. Ebron is a boom-or-bust GPP optionjust about every week, and we need to consider him, even if we don’t load up.
Doyle is a huge bargain on DK and relatively expensive onFD, but he’s an excellent GPP option on both and could have a higher floor thanthe aforementioned Ebron. It would take some enormous hutzpah to play both in aGPP, and I’m not necessarily recommending it, but if there was a week to do it,it would be one like this.
Hockenson gets a favorable matchup against the Bears, who are 30thin the NFL vs. TEs. No major worries the concussion front, either, as he wasevaluated during Week 9 but just had the wind knocked out of him on a big hit.He’s an excellent GPP value play with upside.
Delanie Walker (ankle) has been ruled out again, and it’s asituation Smith is familiar with. He’s had a couple different results – with a6-78-1 receiving line in a Week 8 win over Tampa Bay and a not-so-great 3-18-0in last week’s loss to the Panthers. The matchup with the Chiefs is on the favorableside, as they are 22nd in the NFL vs. TEs.
Brate gets to face theworst team in the league at defending TEs and he’s the best option at theposition for the Bucs. TheKing is with me on this, so feel free to roll Brate out in GPPs and evensome cash games if you don’t want to spend up.
Griffin has double-digit fantasy points on DK in three of his last four and caught six of eight targets for 50 yards in Sunday’s 26-18 loss to the Dolphins. His Week 10 matchup is against the Giants, who are 28th in the league vs. his. With Chris Herndon questionable again, Griffin is a staple of my GPP builds.
Olsen hasn’t shown much upside in the past several weeks, as the Panthers offense has involved the WRs more and focused on being the Christian McCaffrey show. We’ll see another big workload from CMC, but the Packers secondary is more likely to yield completions underneath to Olsen than the big play. If this thing turns into an offensive explosion, Olsen could get more red-zone looks and make for a cheap, TD-dependent GPP play.
The suddenly relevant Gesicki matches up against the AFC’s second-worst team vs. TEs, and he’s been relatively efficient the past three weeks. Absent Preston Williams, the Miami offense could work him into more routes and targets for Week 10.
JimmyGraham, GB vs. CAR (FD $5,800, DK $4,000) – GPP
VanceMcDonald, PIT vs. LAR (FD $5,600, DK $3,800) – GPP
JaredCook, NO vs. ATL (FD $5,800, DK $4,100) – GPP
O.J.Howard, TB vs. ARI (FD $5,000, DK $3,300) – Punt
RhettEllison, NYG at NYJ (FD $5,000, DK $2,500) – Punt
Tyler Eifert, CIN vs. BAL(FD $5,000, DK $3,000) – Punt
The Ravens DST has a great matchup this week and has proven themselves worthy even against the toughest of opponents, with 31 combined DK points over the past two weeks against the Seahawks and Patriots. They’re easy to lock into cash games.
With 14 sacks over their past four games, the Saints make for a solid option in all formats against a banged-up Falcons offensive unit. They’re cash-viable with a 20-point upside in GPPs.
The Colts draw the best matchup of Week 10 and should be a chalky GPP option facing Miami. They’ve averaged 8.5 DK points over their last three and have a 15-point upside on Sunday.
The Rams are a sneaky play this week facing the Steelers, who seem to limit mistakes and play a conservative style that doesn’t yie4ld a lot of turnovers. Still, the Rams have a slew of impact defensive players who give them an enormous upside in GPPs.
In Week 10, the Bills facethe Browns, who make a lot of mistakes. The road matchup and two recent weak effortsare the only things that will keep me from using them more.
The Giants just acquired Leonard Williams from the Jets not toolong ago, and we’ve seen the Jets struggle to score the football in the redzone. They make for a boom-or-bust GPP play in a game that could end up being adefenseless shootout.
The Bears DST has been remarkably quiet lately, but Matthew Stafford and the Lions tend to push the ball up the field and throw over the top of the defense, which can lead to multiple turnovers. They’re far from safe, but they have an upside.
Scott Engel mentioned these guys, along with the Chiefs in hispunts column this week, and I’m right there with him. The Steelers defensehas been maddeningly consistent with its DK scoring, averaging 11.8 on the seasonand posting 19, 11, 14, 13, and 19 points in succession since Week 4.
The Chiefs defense – especially the pass rush – is underrated, andthey should have DL Chris Jones back for a second consecutive week, which meansRyan Tannehill could be in trouble. I’m on board as a GPP punt in large-field,low-stakes tourneys.
The Browns’ defensive line is loaded with talent and the defensive backs seem sot be getting healthy. They could give the Bills some problems, but they remain a longshot for viable production. I’d avoid them in lineups using Devin Singletary and/or the Bills passing game, obviously.
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I am including TE Austin Hooper with WRs Julio Jones and Michael Thomas in this MKF bet, going for broke on the 3x, because these three guys can easily average 8 receptions each this week. Thomas might be good for 12 on his own, and Jones and Hooper each have about 7-8 in them too.
Photo of Austin Hooper via Thomson200 at Wikimedia Commons.
