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Mexico Open Picks

Vidanta Vallarta is the host course for our Mexico Open preview

What a finish to the Genesis Invitational! You have to feel for all the Patrick Cantlay backers, who would’ve been ready to cash their tickets on Friday evening with the substantial lead he had established. Along with those on Cantlay, it was a bit of a frustrating week for our selections. Both Burns and Scott endured slow starts before finding their rhythm and finishing 10th and 15th respectively. Very poor final rounds from our long-shot selections Hossler (80/1) and Kitayama (100/1) saw them move from inside the Top 20 to miss out on the Top 20 bets. Fortunately, our final round match-up bets came through in a big way. We went 4/5 to restore some profit on the week. We only post match-ups rarely, when we see a definitive edge develop in our data. There may be more from our Mexico Open preview, with some particular quirks to this course.

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Mexico Open Preview Vidanta Vallarta Course Analysis

As mentioned for our Mexico Open preview, this quirky course has some fairly key indicators for what is required to play well. That leads to many opportunities in betting markets and, also, in the round match-ups.

This is a resort style golf course that was never designed to be played by PGA Tour golfers. The setup is relatively easy and you are going to need to shoot low to be victorious this week. Playing at 7,456 yards for a par 71, it is one of the longer tracks on the PGA Tour. Bear in mind, the course is also at sea level. It will play every inch of that distance with no benefit from altitude. Par 4 and par 5 length are the longest on the PGA Tour at a whopping 495 yards on average.

In 2022, of the top 14 players 11 ranked in the top 24 for driving distance. Additionally, 9 of the top 14 players were in top 20 and 4 of the top 7 ranked in the top 10 for driving distance. It should come as no surprise for our Mexico Open preview that driving distance is ranked highly.

This also has an impact on approach shots. You will see a disproportionate number of shots with long irons this week. 35% of all iron shots will occur from over 200+ yards. Additionally, the 175-200 yard range sees another big uptick in correlation.

Finally, no Mexico Open preview would be completely without speaking about grass type. This is paspalum grass tee-to-green. This sticky grass is used rarely in the PGA Tour. It is found in seaside golf courses, as it is resistant to salt air and water. It tends to play very slow. We have seen a number of paspalum grass specialists develop over the years.

Vidanta Vallarta Course Comps

On the face of it, course history has not been very correlated to predicting success here. Bear in mind though, the Mexico Open has only hosted two events here so it has only been a brief preview into this course. Additionally, as it is regarded as a lesser field event there is quite a large transition in the field each rendition. We may see more correlation develop in time.

One of the best golf courses to use as a guide for your Mexico Open preview is Corales Golf Club. The course sits at a 7,670 yards par 72. Host of the Corales Puntacana Championship, it is another long golf course featuring paspalum. The new host of the World Wide Technology Championship, El Cardonal, is another long 7,452 yard par 72 in Mexico with paspalum greens.

Another worthy of preview in a Mexico Open analysis is Grand Reserve Country Club. Host of the Puerto Rico Open, it is a 7,506 yards par 72 again featuring paspalum. Tony Finau is a winner at both events. Akshay Bhatia also links these nicely.

The benefit of both of these courses is they not only take in similar agronomy, but also tick the box of exposed tropical golf courses. They are also more likely to feature common players, being alternate field events, to the more flagship PGA Tour stops.