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After a swing of tournaments in the Middle East, the DP World Tour ventures to their second preview of Africa for the Magical Kenya Open. This tournament is always a lot of fun and has produced some thrilling finishes. Much of that comes down to the golf course, as we preview the Magical Kenya Open host Muthaiga Golf Club.

Muthaiga Golf Club host our Magical Kenya Open Preview

The difference between Muthaiga and the PGA Tour Mexico Open venue this week, Vidanta Vallarta, are that they are as polar opposite to each other as they are geographically. This got me thinking about many of the DP World Tour players who have made their way to Mexico this week. Someone like Bjork could be much more suited to the course in Kenya than the one he will face this week.

Perhaps we will see a trend develop in time, with those who hold duel access selecting where they play more on the venue than which Tour is on first glance seemingly paying the most money. It is certainly interesting times we are living in for those of us in the golf industry.

Dial-in on H2H Match-ups this week

The specific nature of the course this week can produce wonderful opportunities for mismatches in rounds 3 and 4 matchups, where you can get two golfers with quite different player profiles who have achieved their score via different means. Keep an eye on the WinDaily Premium Discord for opportunities as we spot them!

Also, we just gave out our first Masters future of 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. It is well worth considering the promo highlighted above.

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Magical Kenya Open Preview Muthaiga Course Analysis

Onto a preview of the golf course then, where the Magical Kenya Open returns once again to Muthaiga Golf Club.

It is very important to note to use course history this week. Despite hosting events in Kenya since 1967, the event has alternated between Muthaiga and Karen Country Club. 2022 and 2023 were both held at the current venue, as were 2017 and 2018 on the Challenge Tour. 2019 and 2021 were played at Karen CC, as were Challenge Tour events from 2013-2016. You get the idea. Although I wouldn’t totally discount form at Karen, this is quite a different test.

I’ll note the Seve factor as well. How often do you see a winning Spanish golfer commenting how “Seve Ballesteros won at this course” and that provided inspiration for them? The effect is real and provides such huge emotional motivation for Spanish players. Seve won this event back in 1978 at Muthaiga and we have seen other Spaniards play well here since. This includes last year’s winner, Jorge Campillo.

Although on paper the golf course looks long enough at 7,228 yards for a par 71, bear in mind that Nairobi is at an altitude of 6,000 feet. That sees the golf ball travel quite significantly further in the air. In fact, the distance increase is up to 20% in the modern age of golf ball technology.

Driving Accuracy the Key to Success

Where Muthaiga gets it’s defense is in the extremely narrow nature of the course. There is barely in runout from the fairway before you are in the towering trees.

Past champion Jeremy Robinson said: “Muthaiga is a narrow course – I think they’ve changed a few of the holes but I remember that being the overriding factor, it being narrow. You had to drive the ball straight because the rough was pretty thick and it wasn’t a long course, even in those days. Hit the ball straight, get used to the grain on the greens, the different grasses, and it’s more of a thinker’s course, unlike a lot of the courses today that favour longer hitters.”

Robinson went on to note how the unique grass types and nature of the course would prove difficult on debut; a sentiment I largely agree with.

It is no wonder then that we have seen some of the straightest hitters on tour find success here. Other links can be found in those who have played well at altitude previously. Perhaps the ability to best adjust to yardages plays a factor there. Greens are very small and scoring should not get out of control.

Muthaiga Golf Club Course Comps

Strangely enough, one of the better course comps for our Magical Kenya Open preview comes from the Swiss Alps. Crans-sur-Sierre is of course also played at altitude, but is a narrow course emphasising driving accuracy and small greens. Soderberg has found success on both courses, with Thriston Lawrence winning at Crans and runner-up at Muthaiga both on debut.

Valderrama is a very narrow, tree-lined test that has favoured the accurate drivers with sharp approach play. Players such as Kinhult link the two, finishing 8th at Muthaiga and 6th at Valderrama later that year. Catlin finished 15th on debut appearance at Muthaiga, a fine performance for a first start, and holds a record at Valderrama of W-11-11.

Le Golf National asks similar questions, but in a different way. The penalty at the Open de France host for a wayward driver is often a watery end. Again, greens are small with penalty severe for a miss. Kinhult also has a 5th there. He may well have made the Magical Kenya Open preview betting card had he shown any glimpse of form in the last 6 months. Julien Brun has gone 13-7 at Muthaiga and 13-6 at Le Golf National. It should provide a fascinating host course for the 2024 Paris Olympics, but is a handy guide for our Magical Kenya Open preview.

Weather

High winds are forecast for Nairobi to begin the week. Wind gusts above 30mph are no joke, even with some protection from the tall trees on this property.

Some rain is set to develop on Friday afternoon. As long as this does not become too severe this could prove beneficial in softening the greens, which can play pretty fast at times. If the rain becomes heavy in conjunction with the wind, it could become very difficult.

As the winds are quite consistent all day, I don’t think a substantial weather edge will develop for week long. You may see a small edge for those playing Thursday AM/Friday PM if light rain softens and slows greens. The caveat for that will come from the level of rain experienced Friday afternoon. For DFS purposes, I think a case could be made for building a number of line-ups in each direction to provide protection and leverage on the field.

Magical Kenya Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Magical Kenya Open, you can preview these in this article here in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
We believe trust and transparency is key in this industry. We keep meticulous result tracking, so you can sign-up with the utmost confidence you are joining one of the sharpest golf bettors on the planet.

Two months to go to The Masters!
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You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value!

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.

Thank you for reading my Magical Kenya Open preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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Before getting into our betting tips for the Magical Kenya Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Muthaiga Golf Club, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into ...

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Vidanta Vallarta is the host course for our Mexico Open preview

What a finish to the Genesis Invitational! You have to feel for all the Patrick Cantlay backers, who would’ve been ready to cash their tickets on Friday evening with the substantial lead he had established. Along with those on Cantlay, it was a bit of a frustrating week for our selections. Both Burns and Scott endured slow starts before finding their rhythm and finishing 10th and 15th respectively. Very poor final rounds from our long-shot selections Hossler (80/1) and Kitayama (100/1) saw them move from inside the Top 20 to miss out on the Top 20 bets. Fortunately, our final round match-up bets came through in a big way. We went 4/5 to restore some profit on the week. We only post match-ups rarely, when we see a definitive edge develop in our data. There may be more from our Mexico Open preview, with some particular quirks to this course.

It was quite some final round for Hideki Matsuyama, whose Masters price has subsequently crashed in from 50s into 28s. We actually just posted our first Masters future of 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. It is well worth considering the promo highlighted above. We are basically giving away our product at 2 months for the price of 1, meaning it is just $49.99 for ALL sports Premium access. Simply use PROMO code “MASTERS” at check-out when you join at this link.

Preparation is key at The Masters.
The same goes for you.
If you want the best chance of cashing a big win, you need to be dialed in for the next 8 weeks!
The best way to do that is with a WinDaily Sports Premium membership.

Mexico Open Preview Vidanta Vallarta Course Analysis

As mentioned for our Mexico Open preview, this quirky course has some fairly key indicators for what is required to play well. That leads to many opportunities in betting markets and, also, in the round match-ups.

This is a resort style golf course that was never designed to be played by PGA Tour golfers. The setup is relatively easy and you are going to need to shoot low to be victorious this week. Playing at 7,456 yards for a par 71, it is one of the longer tracks on the PGA Tour. Bear in mind, the course is also at sea level. It will play every inch of that distance with no benefit from altitude. Par 4 and par 5 length are the longest on the PGA Tour at a whopping 495 yards on average.

In 2022, of the top 14 players 11 ranked in the top 24 for driving distance. Additionally, 9 of the top 14 players were in top 20 and 4 of the top 7 ranked in the top 10 for driving distance. It should come as no surprise for our Mexico Open preview that driving distance is ranked highly.

This also has an impact on approach shots. You will see a disproportionate number of shots with long irons this week. 35% of all iron shots will occur from over 200+ yards. Additionally, the 175-200 yard range sees another big uptick in correlation.

Finally, no Mexico Open preview would be completely without speaking about grass type. This is paspalum grass tee-to-green. This sticky grass is used rarely in the PGA Tour. It is found in seaside golf courses, as it is resistant to salt air and water. It tends to play very slow. We have seen a number of paspalum grass specialists develop over the years.

Vidanta Vallarta Course Comps

On the face of it, course history has not been very correlated to predicting success here. Bear in mind though, the Mexico Open has only hosted two events here so it has only been a brief preview into this course. Additionally, as it is regarded as a lesser field event there is quite a large transition in the field each rendition. We may see more correlation develop in time.

One of the best golf courses to use as a guide for your Mexico Open preview is Corales Golf Club. The course sits at a 7,670 yards par 72. Host of the Corales Puntacana Championship, it is another long golf course featuring paspalum. The new host of the World Wide Technology Championship, El Cardonal, is another long 7,452 yard par 72 in Mexico with paspalum greens.

Another worthy of preview in a Mexico Open analysis is Grand Reserve Country Club. Host of the Puerto Rico Open, it is a 7,506 yards par 72 again featuring paspalum. Tony Finau is a winner at both events. Akshay Bhatia also links these nicely.

The benefit of both of these courses is they not only take in similar agronomy, but also tick the box of exposed tropical golf courses. They are also more likely to feature common players, being alternate field events, to the more flagship PGA Tour stops.

Finally, some cases can be made for Korn Ferry Tour and DP World Tour events. The Korn Ferry Tour has two events in the Bahamas, in Panama, and the Astara Championship was in Colombia last week. All bear consideration. For the DP World Tour, Al Hamra should provide a nice course comp. It is a long track dominated by bombers with above average size greens, and features paspalum greens

Weather

The only other potential defense to this course, other than length, is the wind. Just as we saw last year, there is very little in the forecast. It is worth bearing in mind for DFS Showdown purposes that the AM is likely to provide the most advantage.

Given the exposed nature of this coastal track, wind gusts in the mid-teens are sufficient to put a slight dampener on rampant scoring. Overall, the on-shore breeze looks to consistently arrive around midday. However, as this consistent daily there is unlikely to be any tangible weather edge for week long selections.

If you play DFS showdown, my recommendation would be to look to the morning in nearly all instances.

Mexico Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Mexico Open, you can preview these in this article here in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
We believe trust and transparency is key in this industry. We keep meticulous result tracking, so you can sign-up with the utmost confidence you are joining one of the sharpest golf bettors on the planet.

Two months to go to The Masters!
JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code MASTERS and get Two Months for the Price of One!
That is just $49.99! For EVERYTHING!

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value!

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.

Thank you for reading my Mexico Open preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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Before getting into our betting tips for the Mexico Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Vidanta Vallarta, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of ...

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