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Max Scherzer

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Mar. 30)

Welcome to the first edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

We did it, my friends. We made it through the winter and the MLB season is finally upon us. If you haven’t noticed yet, the game is very different this season. With the newly implemented pitch clock, the game is faster. We’ll definitely see some different things happening earlier in the season until all the players are fully used to playing quicker.

That said, it’s still baseball and it’s going to be fun to watch. We have a great 11-game slate today of MLB DFS today. With it being opening day, we have some studs on the mount so we’ll have a lot of low-scoring games. We also have some really bad pitchers throwing, so there should still be some offense.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Max Scherzer vs. Miami Marlins

Max Scherzer is coming off what was mostly a successful 2022 campaign in his first season with the Mets. While he did spend some time on the IL last season, when he was healthy, he was the Scherzer we have come to love. His K/9 were in line with his career numbers and he still managed to get double-digit victories, a rarity these days with pitchers not going too long in games.

Scherzer gets arguably one of the easier matchups today as he’ll face off against the Miami Marlins. While their lineup is a little improved over last season with the addition of Luis Arraez, they are still a bad lineup. The projected lineup for the Marlins today had just a .110 ISO and a .285 wOBA vs. righties last season. Scherzer should be able to navigate this lineup with ease this afternoon.

Shane McClanahan vs. Detroit Tigers

Another pitcher with a solid matchup today will be Shane McClanahan. McClanahan is coming off a very solid sophomore season. In his second season, McClanahan set career highs in both wins and innings pitched. At just $7.7k on DK today, we’ll be getting a pitcher that had a 30% K rate in 2022. I’ll take that every day of the week.

This Tigers lineup is not one that will strike fear in any pitcher’s eyes. It’s pretty weak up and down the lineup. Last season, this team had just a .129 ISO vs. lefties. The Tigers will more than likely throw out 8 righties today. McClanahan had a higher K rate last season vs. righties than he did lefties and that sets him up for a solid day today. You should feel very confident throwing McClanahan out in your lineups today.

Corbin Burnes vs. Chicago Cubs

I expect Corbin Burnes to have a monster season in 2023. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him win the NL Cy Young award this season. Burnes is coming off a very solid 2022. Like McClanahan, Burnes also set career highs in both Wins and Innings pitched. While the K’s were down a smidge from years past, his K rate was still at a very respectable 30% in 2022. I expect that number to climb this season.

The Cubs lineup will be improved this season with the additions of Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Mancini. That said, it’s still a below-average lineup and one we’ll be able to chase K’s against, especially with a righty on the hill. This projected lineup today for the Cubs had a 25% K rate vs. righties in 2022. There’s definitely some upside in throwing out Burnes today.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Patrick Corbin

When I opened up the schedule today and saw that Patrick Corbin was the opening-day starter for the Nationals 2 things came to mind. The first was that they were going to have an awful rotation this season. Corbin is the epitome of a gas can and while he’ll eventually throw out a gem, more often than not he’s hot garbage.

The second was that the Braves would be extremely popular. They’ll be popular for good reason. Corbin was atrocious in 2022. He pitched to a nearly 5 xFIP and gave up a nearly 50% hard-hit rate. His 58 barrels against far exceed any pitcher on the hill today. When Corbin is on the mound, we attack!

This stack will start with Austin Riley today. He was one of the best in baseball against lefties last season, with a .336 ISO and a .435 wOBA. He should continue to smash against lefties today in a very soft matchup. Next up will be Ronald Acuna. Acuna is now far removed from the knee surgery that saw him start out slowly last season. He matchups up extremely well today vs. Corbin. Corbin mostly throws a sinker to righties. This is a pitch that Acuna has done well against, with a .375 ISO.

I also really like Matt Olson here. Never fear the L/L matchup, especially against Corbin. Olson also has really strong numbers vs. lefty sinkers. Other guys I like here will be Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Eduardo Rodriguez

2022 was not kind to Eduardo Rodriguez. He had one of the worst seasons of his career last year. His strikeouts were down significantly and his xFIP was one of the highest numbers of his career. To make matters worse for him, he’ll be facing off against a Rays team that just crushes lefties. The projected Rays lineup today had a .171 ISO and a .337 wOBA vs. lefties last season. They have some lefty smashers and we’ll want to take advantage of that today.

My priority with the Rays stack today will be Randy Arozarena. He smashed lefties last year, to the tune of a .240 ISO and a .382 wOBA. Fresh off his WBC stint, he’s becoming a force to be reckoned with. He’ll be in all of my lineups today. Next up will be Yandy Diaz. While he doesn’t hit for much power vs. lefties, he does have a very high wOBA of .379. He’ll set the tone at the top of this lineup today.

My value plays in this lineup will be Isaac Paredes, Christian Bethancourt, and Jose Siri. Of the bunch, Paredes is my favorite as he showed a lot of pop at times last season. Franco, Margot, and Ramirez are also very much in play today.

Boston Red Sox vs. Kyle Gibson

The Baltimore Orioles offense is going to be a fun one to watch this season. They are much improved up and down the lineup. The rotation however is still one that is awful and one we’ll be able to attack often. On most teams, Kyle Gibson would be a back-of-the-rotation guy. For the Orioles, he’s being asked to be the ace of the staff. That says a lot about the Orioles’ pitching staff. With Gibson, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. His numbers against both sides of the plate are pretty similar.

Any Red Sox stack needs to start with their star player, Rafael Devers. Devers had a very solid year vs. righties in 2022 and he made us some money with our MLB DFS lineups. He had a .252 ISO and a wOBA that was pushing .400. He’s extremely pricey today at nearly $6k, but he should do extremely well in this matchup vs. Gibson. Next up will be a newcomer to the states, Masataka Yoshida.

Yoshida was a star in Japan and his skillset should transfer pretty nicely to the states. He’ll be hitting in the middle of this lineup today and is fairly priced at $4.4k. Other guys I really like here today will be Trison Casas at just $2.9k on DK, Reese McGuire at just $2.2k, and Alex Verdugo. The Red Sox are set up today to put up a big number on opening day. Vegas likes them a lot, and so do I!

MLB DFS Summary

We waited many months for this day and it’s going to be a great one. I plan on loading up on both Rays and Braves with my bats. My pitching will be focused on Mad Max and Shane Mac. This will hopefully be a recipe for success today!

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 7)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wild Card edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Playoffs? You want to talk about Playoffs? Yes! Yes, I do!. The 2022 MLB playoffs start today and as a Mets fan, I’m excited! MLB DFS is tough during the playoffs as we’re normally dealing with solid starting pitching and today’s pitching is quite good.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Max Scherzer vs. San Diego Padres

While the Padres are a star-studded lineup, the Mets signed Max Scherzer to a massive deal in November for this very moment. He’s been one of the best pitchers of our generation and tonight is his chance to shine on the big New York stage. He’s coming into this having struggled in his last outing vs. the Braves, giving up 4 ER in just 5 innings of work.

Prior to that though he had been lights out, not allowing more than an ER in 4 consecutive starts. His K rate is nearly 31% over the last month, tops of any pitcher today. He’ll have his hands full tonight, but he’s the best pitcher on the slate. I’m locking him in as my SP1.

Shane Bieber vs. Tampa Bay Rays

We’ll see a substantial drop off in strikeouts from Scherzer to Shane Bieber, but Bieber gets the better matchup today. This isn’t the same Rays team of last year when they had the likes of Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows. Lowe’s on the IL and Meadows was shipped off to the Tigers. While it’s a solid lineup, it’s also one that has struggled vs. righties. Over the last month, they have just a .117 ISO, a .224 wOBA, and a nearly 32% K rate vs. righties. This is a really solid spot for Bieber today.

Zack Wheeler vs. St. Louis Cardinals

While my lean right now is to lock in Scherzer and Bieber, I may take a chance on Wheeler as well. He’s coming into this one fairly fresh as he’s only thrown 15 innings over the last month. And those 15 innings have been absolutely dominant. The competition in those last 3 starts wasn’t the toughest, but over them, he allowed just 1 run.

Although the matchup will be tough for him today against the Cardinals, the Cardinals haven’t really been crushing the ball over the last month against righties. Against righties, over the last month, they have just a .066 ISO. It’s only that high due to how well Pujols did coming down the stretch.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cleveland Guardians vs. Shane McClanahan

While I typically reserve using the Guardians against righties, they’re getting the pitcher today coming into the playoffs pitching the worst. McClanahan did not have a strong finish to the season. It could very well be due to the fact he’s never thrown this many innings. His 166 innings this year were the most he’s thrown in his young career, and by a lot.

Over the last month, McClanahan pitched to a 5.21 ERA and a matching xFIP. He was giving up more hard contact and more flyballs as the season ended. The hope is that it continues today and that the Guardians can take full advantage of his struggles.

Core: My core with the Guardians today will be Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez, and Andres Gimenez. Ramirez finished up the season strongly. He finished with a 5-game hitting streak, a streak that saw him get at least 18 DK points 3 times. Now he’s normally better as a lefty, but he’s the heart and soul of this franchise. If they’re going to advance to the NLDS, it will be on his back.

Next up is Gimenez. Gimenez has been one of their better hitters vs. lefties all year, and especially recently. Over the last month, Gimenez has a .410 wOBA vs. lefties in about 30 AB. McClanahan has been slightly worse against lefties this season, making this L/L matchup for Gimenez all the more sweeter.

Secondary Pieces/Value: Other Guardians bats we look to today will be Myles Straw and Gabriel Arias. Arias finished the season strong vs. lefties, with a .384 wOBA and a .273 ISO over since his call-up in late September.

New York Mets vs. Yu Darvish

After getting swept by the Braves, the Mets returned the favor to the Nationals. Their bates woke up during that series and they’ll hopefully continue with the momentum from the final series. The matchup will be tough for them against Yu Darvish, but the time to attack Darvish is when he’s on the road.

His ERA this season was a full run higher away from San Diego. It also helps that Darvish hasn’t exactly been Mr. October. In 7 career playoff starts, Darvish has a 5.18 ERA. Most of that was from when he struggled in the 2017 playoffs with the Dodgers.

Core: My Mets stack will start with Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso. Brandon Nimmo finished the season on fire. He had 6 hits in his final 8 AB and finished with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He’s reasonably priced today at $4.6k on DK.

After winning the 2022 NL Batting Title, McNeil will look to carry that over to the Wild Card round. McNeil also finished the season strong, with hits in 10 straight. In those 10 games, he had multi-hit games in all but 2 of them. He’s their best pure hitter and they’ll need his bat to keep going if they have any chance of making it to the Dodgers in the next round.

Secondary/Value: I also like Francisco Lindor, Eduardo Escobar, and Daniel Vogelbach. Vogelbach makes for a nice punt at 1B as he’s only $3.4k tonight and has power upside.

Seattle Mariners vs. Alek Manoah

Sorry Ghost, but I’m siding with the Mariners in this one. Although the ERA has been low for Manoah over the last month, the xFIP isn’t. Manoah’s xFIP is more than 3.5 runs higher than this 1.07 ERA over the last month. A lot of this is due to his disappearing K rate. Over the last month, Manoah has had just a 21% K rate, down significantly from the start of the year.

He also has a troubling 50% flyball rate over the last month. This is a strong Mariners and giving up that many flyballs can lead to some damage. Lefties are the way to really get Manoah. They have a higher slugging % and wOBA and 11 of the 16 homers he gave up this year were to lefties.

Core: When you stack the Mariners, it all starts at the top with presumed Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez. What a year for the kid! He ended the season strong against righties, with a .421 ISO and a .535 wOBA over the last few weeks of the season. He’ll look to continue that momentum into this matchup vs. Manoah.

I’ll also build around Carlos Santana. He’s risky but also possesses some power from the left side. Although he doesn’t hit for average as a lefty, 16 of his 19 homers this season were as a lefty. At just $2.6k he’s a nice value with some upside.

Secondary/Value: Jarred Kelenic may also make my lineup today. He has a ton of risk, but at $2.4k I’m willing to eat that risk as he did start to show some power at the end of the year and fewer strikeouts.

MLB DFS Summary

I also like the Phillies vs. Quintana today.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 21)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a nice sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. We’re at the point of the season where teams are starting to jockey for playoff position, or are fighting for the playoff lives.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Robbie Ray vs. Oakland Athletics

Robbie Ray has had an up-and-down season in 2022. He’s shown flashes of the 2021 Cy Young-winning pitcher, but he’s also thrown some duds like he did last time out vs. the Los Angeles Angels. That said, I do think he has one of his better outings tonight vs. a pesky, but average at best Oakland Athletics lineup.

He’s faced the Athletics 3 times already this season and has had double-digit strikeouts in 2 of them. The projected lineup tonight for the Athletics has just a .255 wOBA against lefties over the last month and a 26% K rate. There’s definitely going to be some upside for him tonight and he’s priced fairly at just $9.6k on DK tonight.

Triston McKenzie vs. Chicago White Sox

The price is a little on the high end for what I like to pay for Triston McKenzie, but options are extremely limited tonight, especially with one of the better pitchers on the mound in Snell being in an awful matchup. McKenzie has put together a really solid season. He’s reached double-digit wins for the first time in his career and he also has the lowest ERA at just 3.08.

Over the last month 2.5 months, he’s had just 2 games allowing more than 3 ER. If we ever attack the White Sox, it’s with a right-handed pitcher. They’re extremely beatable tonight and while McKenzie is expensive, he’s proven his worth this season. He has back-to-back games over 20DK points and hasn’t been in single digits since way back in June. He has sneaky upside tonight as the last time he faced the White Sox he K’d 14 of them.

Bailey Ober vs. Kansas City Royals

I said options were limited tonight and I meant it. Ober is cheap tonight at just $7.7k on DK and gets a really solid matchup vs. a bad Royals team, a team that is on pace to lose well over 90 games this season. Their lineup has been more anemic than usual as they’ve scored just 15 runs over the last month.

The lineup that Ober is expected to face tonight has a .296 wOBA vs. righties over the last month and just a .108 ISO. Ober hasn’t pitched much this season due to injury, but his first start coming off the IL was very solid, allowing just 1 hit in 5 innings against the Guardians. He was also able to strike out 5 in that game. Against a much weaker Royals lineup, he should be able to come close to that again tonight. He’s a solid value SP2 tonight. Pairing him with Ray gives you more than $4k per batter on DK tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Madison Bumgarner

This is the matchup that dreams are made of. The Dodgers tonight get the best matchup of the day as they’ll be taking on a pitcher in Madison Bumgarner that just continues to struggle night in and night out when he’s on the mound. MadBum got shelled in his last outing, allowing 5 ER in 5 innings of work, while allowing 3 homers to the Padres. He continues to give up just a ton of hard contact.

Over the last month, he’s given up a hard-hit rate of over 42% and has allowed 11 barrels in his last 19 innings of work. MadBum has been especially bad against righties over the last month. They have a .319 ISO vs. him and a .429. While they will be my priority tonight, lefties won’t need to be ignored as they’ve been crushing him too.

Core: My core with the Dodgers tonight will be the trio of Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and former Met Justin Turner. I don’t need to get into much detail about Betts and Turner. They are 2 of the better hitters in the game, especially against lefties. Betts has been absolutely crushing lefties over the last month with a .556 ISO and a .504 wOBA. He’s expensive at $6k on DK tonight, but on FanDuel he’s somehow just $3.5k. Someone was asleep at the wheel when they set that and he’s a must-play over there.

Justin Turner has also been crushing lefties recently. Over his last 20 AB, he has a .333 ISO and a .567 wOBA against them. At $4.7k on DK tonight, he’s absolutely in play with how well he’s handled lefties.

Secondary Pieces/Value: After my core, I’ll look to use the rest of the Dodgers lineup where they fit as the entire team will be in play tonight. The 3 guys at the back of this lineup will provide us a ton of value in a great spot. Trayce Thompson, Hanser Alberto, and Miguel Vargas are all under $3k tonight and will give us a ton of flexibility with our payroll tonight. They’ll make paying up for Betts and Tuner much easier to swallow.

Minnesota Twins vs. Daniel Lynch

While Daniel Lynch has shown some promise, he’s still shown that he is young and makes a ton of mistakes. He has 3 consecutive starts allowing multiple homers, with one of those being against this same Twins team a week ago. Over his last 23 innings of work, Lynch has allowed 7 homers and a 38% hard-hit rate.

Until he can control the homers, he’s someone we should always consider stacking against. Especially with a high-powered offense like the Twins. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits against Lynch. Over the last month, both sides of the plate have crushed him. He’s especially bad against lefties as they have a .532 wOBA during that stretch.

Core: My priority with the Twins tonight will be Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela. Combined, these two will cost us an average of $4.2k which isn’t too bad. Carlos Correa has been on fire over the last month vs. lefties, with a .579 wOBA and a .750 ISO. He’s also coming into this one hot as he has 8 hits over his last 14 AB. Although the Twins have been a huge disappointment this season, it hasn’t been due to Correa.

Next up is Gio Urshela. Urshela has also been very strong vs. lefties over the last month, with a .469 wOBA and a .269 ISO. He should continue with that strong hitting tonight with this matchup.

Secondary: Next up I’ll look to include guys like Jose Miranda, Gary Sanchez, and Nick Gordon. Even though Gordon is in the L/L matchup tonight, Lynch has struggled with lefties his whole career. Gordon will absolutely be a K risk but he has also sneaky power as he one of the top expected slugging %’s in all of baseball this season. He’s just $3.2k and is really hot right now, with 5 hits in his last 8 AB. He’ll someone that has upside at a low cost and low ownership.

Texas Rangers vs. Tucker Davidson

No team has been a bigger disappointment this season than the Texas Rangers, in real life and MLB DFS. They were expected to compete for a playoff spot this year but have already been eliminated. That said, they get a good matchup tonight vs. Tucker Davidson. This is also a team that has performed significantly better vs. southpaws this season than righties. In Davidson, we have a pitcher that has given up a 7.27 ERA over the last month and has also allowed 4 homers in 17 innings of work over that stretch.

His biggest struggle though has been his command. His BB/9 over the last month is an astounding 5.71. If the Rangers can show any level of patience tonight, they’ll get plenty of runners on. This is another matchup where we won’t need to worry about splits. Davidson has been equally bad against both sides of the plate, as each has a slugging % over .450.

Core: I’m going to start my build tonight with Nate Lowe, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia. Lowe is someone that i love using in L/L matchups. Over the last month Lowe has a wOBA over .400 vs. lefties. On the year, he’s hitting .341 against them and has a .553 slugging %. He excels in these matchups and is reasonably priced at $4.2k on DK.

Next up will be Marcus Semien. Semien has been hitting the ball well recently, with 6 hits in his last 17 AB. He’s also had a 46% hard-hit rate over that stretch. He should dominate in this matchup tonight.

Value: After my core with the Rangers, I’ll look to grab value. And they’ll have a ton of it tonight. Mark Mathias, Josh Jung, Leody Tavares, Sam Huff, and Bubba Thompson are all under $3k tonight and will provide for flexibility. My favorite of the bunch will be Jung as he’s been solid since being called up. Over 19 plate appearances against lefties, he has a .421 ISO and a .423 wOBA. He’s as solid of a value as we’ll see tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will be the Mariners vs. James Kaprielian and both sides of the Coors game.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 19)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a nice-sized 7-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. We’re at the point of the season where teams are starting to jockey for playoff position, or are fighting for their playoff lives. We have a little bit of both of that tonight with many teams in action tonight in the playoff hunt. That will make for even better baseball.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Clayton Kershaw vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Of the aces on the hill tonight, Clayton Kershaw gets arguably the best matchup on paper. While the Diamondbacks have been better against lefties over the last month, they’re still the Diamondbacks facing Clayton Kershaw and this is a matchup that Kershaw should be able to navigate with some level of ease.

Over the last month, Kershaw has been the dominant Kershaw we’ve grown to appreciate. He has just a 1.5 ERA over 18 innings of work and a 28.8% K rate. He just faced this team a week ago and went 7 strong without giving up an ER and striking out 5. With his price being under $10k tonight at $9.7k on DK, we don’t need a double-digit K performance. We just need a similar performance to last time as it netted him 27 DK points. I’ll take that every day of the week from a pitcher under $10k.

Max Scherzer vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The matchup isn’t great for Scherzer tonight, but he’s a big game pitcher in a big game for the Mets tonight. The Mets are clinging to a 1-game lead right now and the Braves get a soft matchup tonight vs. Washington. They’ll need the bulldog that is Max Scherzer to bring his A+ game tonight and I think he does.

He’s coming off a rehab start that saw him strike out 7 in just 3 and two-thirds innings. The Brewers are a solid lineup, but also a lineup that can go ice cold instantly. The projected lineup tonight for the Brewers has a 23% K rate over the last month to righties while having just a .157 ISO. I really like this spot for Scherzer tonight to have one of his 8-10 K games while giving up just a run or 2.

Wade Miley vs. Miami Marlins

The Marlins have been one of Major League baseball’s worst teams this season against righties. They haven’t been great against righties either, but against lefties, they’ve been awful. The Marlins have just a 68 wRC and a .589 OPS as a team vs. southpaws this season. That’s just horrendous.

They’ll have a tough time tonight vs. a pitcher in Miley that has thrown 2 very strong games in a row since sitting out for the 3 months. Over his last 2 outings, he’s struck out 11 while giving up just 3 ER. At just $6.6k tonight on DK, he’ll make for a decent SP2.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tyler Alexander

I wish the Orioles had better numbers as a team vs. lefties, but this is still a strong matchup for them tonight and they could help us get a take down in MLB DFS tonight. Tyler Alexander is coming into this one really struggling. In his 5 starts over the last month, he’s given up 7 ER twice and has given up at least 3 in all but one of them. He’s just been giving up way too much contact to have any level of success. His contact rate over the last month is massive 88.60%. That’s significantly higher than any other pitcher throwing tonight. That much contact leads to a ton of balls in play and the more balls in play, the better chance of putting runners on and scoring. It’s as simple of an equation as there is in sports.

Also over the last month, he’s given up 8 homers and 12 barrels. Over just 23 innings of work, that’s really bad. Another thing that we have going for us here is that Alexander has been dreadful on the road. His home ERA this season is 3.57. On the road, it’s more than double that at 7.30.

Core: My core with the Orioles tonight will be Austin Hays, Adley Rutschman, and Anthony Santander. After coming out of the gates struggling to hit lefties, Rutschman has been really strong against them over the last month. He has a .250 ISO and a .361 wOBA. With how poorly Alexander has pitched on the road, this is a spot that Rutschman should continue to smash in.

Next up will be Anthony Santander. Santander has been arguably their best hitter vs. lefties this season. On the year, he’s hitting .296 vs. them and has a .898 OPS thanks to a .535 slugging %. He’s $4.9k on DK tonight so he’s a bit pricy, but this is definitely a spot for him to smash in.

Secondary Pieces/Value: After my core, I’ll look to plug in Orioles pieces where I can. With Rutschman and Santander being the only hitters over $4k tonight for the Orioles, this lineup will be filled with value. One of my favorite pieces to this lineup tonight and most nights will be Jorge Mateo. Mateo, while not spectacular, has done a little bit of everything for the Orioles. He’s hit for some power and stolen some bases. At just $3.4k he’s extremely affordable for someone that has tons of upside in this matchup.

Ryan McKenna is also a potential solid value tonight at the min-price of $2k. If he hits close to the front of the lineup, I’ll like him a lot more though.

Atlanta Braves vs. Corey Abbott

Corey Abbott has somehow been able to limit the damage in every single appearance this season but the 1 against the Phillies where he gave up 7 ER in less than 4 innings of work. The only reason he’s been able to limit the damage is thanks to a low hard-hit rate of just 29.70%. He’s teetering with damage as he’s also given up a 65% flyball rate over the last month.

With not having strong swing and miss stuff, giving up that many flyballs is a recipe for disaster and that very well could come at the hands of the Braves tonight. The Braves will be looking to inch closer to the Mets in the NL East race. With the easier of the matchups between the 2 times, it’s quite possible they draw even with the Mets tonight.

Core: The bats I’m most interested in here are going to be Ronald Acuna and William Contreras. These 2 guys are really the guys that are hitting the best right now. Acuna seems to finally have hit a consistent stride. He has hits in 5 of his last 6 games and has had really full box scores in 2 of his last 3 games. He also has extra-base hits in 4 of his last 5 games. Contreras is also hot. He has hit in 4 straight games, including a homer in yesterday’s 5-2 victory over the Phillies.

Secondary Pieces: Other bats I like here but aren’t going to prioritize are going to be Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Michael Harris. Similar to the Giants, none of these guys are smoking the ball right now but can go off in an instant. Can Abbott be the slump buster that some of these cold Braves bats need? It’s quite possible.

San Francisco Giants vs. Chad Kuhl

I haven’t been the biggest fan of playing the Giants this season, but they get a strong matchup tonight and an even stronger hitting environment. Sometimes playing Coors is inevitable and tonight is going to be one of those nights with limited spots for offense. The former Pirates pitcher, Chad Kuhl has not had much success this year. His ERA of 5.33 is the highest of his career and his K/9 of 7.08 is the lowest it’s been since his rookie year in 2016. He’s coming into this game having given up at least 3 ER in 10 straight games so we know the Giants should score at least that many, but more than likely many more than that.

Kuhl has been getting rocked over the last month. His hard-hit rate of 45.8% is by far the highest rate of any pitcher on the mound today. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits here as Kuhl has been bad vs. both sides of the plate. The one caveat here is that the Giants aren’t hitting the ball very well right now. You can make an easy case to fade in MLB DFS tonight, but it’s Coors and even the worst hitting teams can excel here.

Core: I’m going to build around Joc Pederson tonight. He’s the one guy in the lineup that has really shown any level of power vs. righties over the last month. His .340 ISO and .465 wOBA vs. righties over the last 30 days is far and away the best out of any Giants hitter.

Secondary: After Pederson, I’ll look to add guys like LaMonte Wade, Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores, and J.D. Davis. While these bats aren’t exactly hitting the cover off the ball right now, this is a great spot for them to bounce back and put up solid numbers.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will be the Rockies vs. Junis, Tigers vs. Wells, Astros vs. Rasmussen, and Dodgers vs. Kelly.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Monday – 10/11

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Monday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have our final 4 game slate of the 2021 MLB Division Series. All 8 playoff teams are in action.

My goal today will be to walk you through where my mind is with pitching and then focus on some bats that are a must.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: Pitching

As we’ve seen for the most part with pitching so far, we’ll want to pick the pitchers that will do the least damage while also grabbing some K’s to thwart off the damage. We’ve only seen a handful of truly dominant outings so far between Webb, Fried, and Morton.

The first guy I’m going to look to today is Freddy Peralta vs. the Atlanta Braves. Peralta hasn’t pitched in more than 2 weeks. With him we’re dealing with a rested pitcher but also a pitcher that may show some rust. He has just as much K upside as anyone else throwing today.

He’ll face a team that will throw out 5 righties and he’s struck out righties at a near 38% clip this year. The winner of this game puts the other team on the brink of elimination. With Peralta on the hill I like the Brewers to go up 2-1 in the series.

The next guy I’m looking to is Carlos Rodon vs. the Houston Astros. Rodon is another guy that hasn’t pitched in about 2 weeks so there’s some level of rust involved with him. That said the White Sox need Rodon to have a dominant outing today if they have any chance of extending this series.

Rodon struck out righties at a near 36% clip this season and he’s going to face a lineup predominantly right handed. When he’s on he’s dominant. This is a very high risk, but very high reward type of pick.

I expect Max Scherzer to be extra amped up today. Amped up Scherzer is the best Scherzer. Dodgers return home today looking to take a 2-1 series lead and who better to turn the ball over to than Mad Max.

Coming into the playoffs Scherzer was struggling a bit but he was able to somewhat return to form and stymie the hot St. Louis Cardinals. Max has K rates greater than 30% to both sides of the plate this year so while the Giants are a low strike out team, I fully expect him to be one of the top pitchers on the slate.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Ian Anderson – Depending on who the Rays throw out today, Ian Anderson is the worst pitcher on the slate. He comes into the playoffs not in great form. Over the course of September he gave up 7 homers in just 5 outings, while also walking 12 batters. He’s beatable today and the Brewers have a real shot at going up 2-1 in the series.

I’m going to attack Anderson with lefties as he gives up significantly more fly balls to them. Anderson will throw lefties his changeup close to 40% of the time. Brewers have some lefties that handle them very well. The first two that I’d look at are Christian Yelich and Omar Narvaez.

Both guys have slugging %’s over .500 against changeups this year. My hope is that Craig Counsel plays Daniel Vogelbach today as Vogelbach profiles extremely well against Anderson. If he doesn’t, I also like Rowdy Tellez and Eduardo Escobar today.

Chicago White Sox vs. Jose Urquidy – The White Sox finally exploded last night keeping their World Series hopes alive. They should explode against today as they face off against a pitcher in Urquidy who struggled at times this year.

Urquidy was a reverse splits pitcher this season and performed pretty poorly against right handed hitting. Not a good sign for him today as he faces a lineup where the core is right handed. Righties had a .234 ISO against him this season.

If the White Sox have any hope of continuing this series they’ll need Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, and Yasmani Grandal to perform well today. Those guys would be my core if going with the White Sox.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox – The last team on the brink of elimination today is the Tampa Bay Rays. After taking the opener of the series they’ve dropped 2 in a row including an absolute heart breaker last night. The Rays are a deep lineup and will be able to load up on righties today giving them some serious platoon advantages.

A guy like Jordan Luplow becomes an important part of the Rays puzzle because he’s cheap and has a .247 against lefties this season. He is however a pinch hit risk once a righty comes into the game.

Mike Zunino, Randy Arozarena, and Nelson Cruz are also must plays here. With father time not on his side it very well could be Cruz’s final game and you can be sure he’s going to try his best to keep this series going.

A full game stack of the Rays/Red Sox game is also in play. Right now the projected starter for the Rays is Colin McHugh. If it is McHugh on the hill I’m going to load up on guys like Kyle Schwarber and Devers.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

This is the last 4 game slate of the year and it very well could be the best of the year, at least from a fan’s perspective. We have 2 teams in the Rays and White Sox who are battling for their playoff lives. I expect them to come out hungry and force game 5’s. Pitching is tough and all present some level of risk.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 09/23

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on each slate.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces (Early)

Max Scherzer ($11.3k) vs. Colorado Rockies – It’s a steep price to pay for a pitcher throwing in Coors but with a pitcher like Scherzer I’m not as concerned with “Coors effect” as I am others. When you have a near 20% swinging strike rate you’re just not putting as many balls in play as your peers.

Scherzer is in as good a form as we’ve seen him. Over the last month his K rate is hovering around the 38% mark. We chase K’s in DFS and with Scherzer on the hill, we chase. My hope is that with him being in Coors his ownership will be lower than normal. He’s the top pitcher on the slate and it’s not really close.

Logan Webb ($9.8k) vs. San Diego Padres – If you’ve made the decision to fade Scherzer the next best option would be Logan Webb. Webb is quietly putting together a solid season. Over the last month his xFIP is just 2.58, the lowest of any pitcher on the slate. While he doesn’t have the K upside of Scherzer, he’s still striking out around 27% of the batters over the last month.

Where he excels though is keeping the ball on the ground and inducing soft contact. More than 21% of the contact he’s been giving up is soft and his GB rate is approaching 60%. 10 of his last 11 starts have been quality starts so the QS bonus is almost a given. I really like his chances of making it 11 out of 12 today. If you want the $1,500 savings over Scherzer you could do a whole lot worse than Webb.

Adam Wainwright ($9.5k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – I’m going to stick with the top 2 pitchers, but if you want to go a different route Wainwright comes into the conversation. He lacks the K upside of the first two as his K rate is just 15% over the last month. What he provides us with is length which normally equates to another strike out or 2.

Similar to Webb, he also provides us a decent floor. In 9 of his last 10 starts he’s finished with a QS. That 4 point bonus is always key on FD as it’s essentially 1 more K. Brewers are striking out almost 25% of the time vs. righties over the last month and that’s good for Wainwright. He faced the Brewers a couple of weeks ago and had a 4K game with a Win and QS. Good for 38 points. He’s not my first choice today but he’s a solid choice if you go that route.

MLB DFS: The Bats (Early)

Atlanta Braves vs. Madison Bumgarner – I suspect the Braves will be popular to chalky today. They get a great match up vs. a pitcher that is a shell of what they used to be. Over the last month MadBum is pitching to a 6.17 xFIP. He’s giving up hard hits almost 46% of the time. He’s just not good anymore. We want to attack him with righties as his splits are pretty clear.

Righties have a .282 ISO vs. him and a .379 wOBA. Lefties have a .182 ISO and .250 wOBA. That’s a 100 point difference in the ISO category and we want power in DFS. With the Braves clinging to a 3 game lead over the Phillies we can expect them to put their best foot forward today.

My core with the Braves will be Soler ($3.2k), Riley ($3.5k), and Swanson ($2.8k). All three have historically hit lefties extremely well. Over the last 30 days they all have wOBA’s in the mid .300’s or greater vs. lefties. They should be able to get MadBum and then get to take on the Diamondbacks porous bullpen.

Oakland Athletics vs. Yusei Kikuchi – I used the A’s against Gonzales the other day and I’ll be honest, they were a disappointment. I’m going right back to the well with them today against another lefty. Kikuch is very attackable. I’ll add here though that if you go with the A’s today, you need to go all in. He doesn’t give up many homers so he’s not someone to use a one off hitter and hope that they homer. Kikuchi is more someone that gives up a ton of contact, and a ton of hard contact.

Of all the pitchers on the day slate no one is giving up more hard contact that Kikuchi. His hard hit rate over the last 30 days is sitting at 41%. While the match up is great here, the real reason I’m going here is that the A’s provide us value. The back of the A’s lineup is very cheap today. We have guys like Gomes ($2.8k), Pinder ($2.2k), and Davis ($2.1k) who all get the platoon advantage today and are all under $3k. With having an expensive pitcher in Scherzer we’ll need value. The A’s provide us that today.

San Francisco Giants vs. Yu Darvish – Darvish has had a very up and down year. He’s been brilliant at times and then absolutely awful at times. The match up today is screaming an awful outing for him. Over the last 30 days he has an extremely glaring weakness and that’s lefties. They have a .476 ISO and .521 wOBA against him. His K rate plummets from 39.7% against righties to just 6% against lefties.

The Giants have a lineup filled with lefties. I’m focused on the lefties here and I think we can chase homers with them too. It starts with Belt ($3.8k) who has a .485 ISO against righties over the last month. I think he takes Darvish deep today!

Other guys I like here are Crawford ($3.3k) and Wade ($2.9k). Both guys have ISO’s over .200 vs righties over the last month and have power upside. Giants are clinging to a 2 game lead over the Dodgers so you can be sure they are still playing their hardest. I think we can get some of these Giants at much lower ownership than they should be today.

MLB DFS: Main Slate

There are really only two arms I trust on the main slate tonight. Aaron Nola ($9.1k) and Lance McCullers ($10.2k). My lean right now would be to go with McCullers. The Angels have been striking out a ton of late and have a 28% K rate vs. righties over the last month. McCullers will more than likely face a lineup that has 5 lefties in it. Over the last month he’s striking out lefties at a 29% clip. This is a solid match up for McCullers.

My lean to McCullers over Nola is due to the Pirates being a low strike out team. Over the last 30 days they have just a 23% K rate vs. righties. While Nola does tend to strike out lefties at a higher rate this match up just doesn’t look like a good one for him. I can see Nola closer to his floor than ceiling tonight.

With bats we have some options. My lean right now is to favor the Texas Rangers vs. Zac Lowther. Lowther has been getting rocked over the last 30 days. His xFIP is in the mid 5’s and his hard hit rate is 68%. Just not what you want to see out of your starter. He has pretty clear splits.

Righties have a .306 ISO against him. The righties I’d pick here are Garcia ($3.4k), Ibanez ($2.8k), and Kiner-Falefa ($3k). Ibanez and Kiner are the hottest hitters on the Rangers right now. While Garcia has been struggling, he has a 45% fly ball rate over the last week and a modest 36% hard hit rate. If anyone can homer in this lineup, it’s him.

My core of bats will the Blue Jays. They’re going to be popular but it may be chalk we need to eat on a short slate. Blue Jays bats are hot right now. Vlad Guerrero ($4.5k) and Gurriel ($3.4k) are the hottest of the bunch. They both have OPS’s greater than 1.000. Gurriel is absolutely smashing the ball right now with 4 barrels over the last week.

Pineda is a guy that can be had and with the Blue Jays on the cusp of the final Wild Card sport you can be rest assured that they are going to continue to play as hard as anyone in the league. Blue Jays put up a big number today.

My final stack will be on the other side of the game with the Minnesota Twins vs. Steven Matz. Matz biggest weakness is righties. Over the last 30 days they have a 45% fly ball rate and 37% hard hit rate vs. him. The Twins have 3 guys at the top of the lineup that are crushing lefties over the last month.

Buxton ($3.8k), Polanco ($3.8k), and Donaldson ($3.3k) are my lean here. Polanco and Donaldson have ISO’s at or approaching .500 vs. lefties over the last month. Matz will not be able to cool them down. Garver ($2.5k) is also a nice cheap addition to this stack. On the year he has a .272 ISO against lefties and should be in the lineup.

Summary

We get two decent slates on the day. I do like the day slate much batter and with weather risk in the night slate a case could be made to just skip it and enjoy TNF.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 08/26

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Tonight we have a nice sized 9 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Chris Sale ($10.7k) vs. Minnesota Twins – Through his first 2 outings after a couple of years off Sale has looked like his old self. He’s sporting a sub 2 xFIP and has a 32.5% K rate. While there’s a concern he won’t go deep, what he’s doing while he is on the mound is what we should be concerned with.

Sale is a master as keeping batters on their toes. He has a 38.9% chase rate and just a 64% zone swing rate. Both numbers indicate that batters really have no idea what to do when he’s throwing to them. If he goes deeper than he has in his first two outings today he should have no issue paying off his salary.

Max Scherzer ($10.5k) vs. San Diego Padres – If I had to pick between Sale and Scherzer I’d probably lead with Max right now due to we know exactly what we’re going to get. A dominant pitcher with little to no restrictions.

Since joining the Dodgers Max has a 32% K rate, a 13.5% swinging strike rate, and a 13.5% CSW. He’s elite, there’s no other way to really describe. While the Padres may sound like a tough match up, they really haven’t been setting the world on fire of late.

Over the past week they have a 26% K rate with just a handful of barrels and homers from their star players. Max will more than likely be my SP1 tonight.

Alex Wood ($8.2k) vs. New York Mets – The Mets psyche is totally broken at the moment and it’s something we should take advantage of. The projected lineup tonight has a 28.9% K rate vs. lefties over the past month and just a .111 ISO.

Both of those numbers are just dreadful from a team that was supposed to walk away with the division. Wood himself has been pretty decent over the same 30 days. He’s sporting a 3.56 xFIP and a sub 30% hard hit rate. Wood is my high risk/high reward pick of the night.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Cleveland Indians vs. Jordan Lyles – The Indians get to take on a pitcher tonight in Lyles that has just not been good at all this year. If we look at some recent data on Lyles we can see he’s giving up a healthy dose of fly balls and hard hits. His fly ball rate is 45% and his hard hit rate is 45%.

That’s a lethal combo for a pitcher. It adds up to him giving up 7 homers and 13 barrels in his last 31 innings. He’s been especially bad against lefties over that stretch as they’ve tagged him for a .379 wOBA and a .333 ISO. Insert Jose Ramirez ($4.4k) into my lineups.

He’s been crushing righties over the last month with a .361 ISO and .413 wOBA. He’s my core to the Indians stack tonight. My hope is that Daniel Johnson ($2.3k) makes the lineup tonight. In a smalls sample size of 13 PA against lefties in August he has a .250 ISO and .402 wOBA against righties. If he plays he’ll be right next to Ramirez in my lineup.

Another guy on the Indians that’s hot and will be sure to be in play tonight is Amed Rosario ($3.3k). He had a 10 game hitting streak snapped last night. He’s been super-hot and the matchup tonight should be good for him to get back on track.

Kansas City Royals vs. Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi has really hit a rough patch over the past 30 days. Some of it has been unlucky, but some of it has been his own doing. His fly ball rates and hard hit rates aren’t “bad” as they are middle of the pack. More than a quarter of his fly balls are leaving the park though and he’s been giving up way too many walks. His 5.48 BB/9 has led to a 1.87 WHIP over the past 30 days and both of those numbers are tops of all pitchers going tonight.

Kikuchi’s splits have been pretty clear. Play righties against him as they have a .306 ISO against him over the last month. The guy that immediately gets my interest here is Perez ($3.4k). He’s been crushing lefties all year long with a .349 ISO and .420 wOBA.

While he doesn’t necessarily hit for power, Merrifield ($3.9k) is another guy that will be sure to be in my Royals stack. Over the last 30 days he has a .378 wOBA against lefties. If you want to get a little crazy with the Royals stack, add in Michael Taylor ($2.7k) and his .438 wOBA against lefties.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Zac Gallen – Gallen hasn’t been that bad of late, but he has very clear splits over the last month that we can really take advantage of. Over the last 30 days Gallen has been getting mauled by righties. They have a .375 ISO and .380 wOBA against him. They also have a 71% hard hit rate against him.

Those numbers are really bad and with the Phillies having some really solid right handed bats the bleeding won’t stop tonight. Rhys Hoskins ($4.1k) is the bat that comes to mind first. Since coming back from the IL he has 3 homers in 2 games. He also has been crushing righties on the year with a .262 ISO, a.345 wOBA, and a near 50% fly ball rate. He goes yard tonight.

JT Realmuto ($3.5k) is another guy I’ll want in this matchup as he has a 46% hard hit rate vs. righties over the last month. Even though Gallen tends to do well against lefties, there’s no denying the spot that Harper ($4.1k) is in. He’ll see mostly fastballs from Gallen and over the last few years he has a .350 ISO against righty fastballs. These 3 all have a chance at homering tonight.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

With pitching tonight I’ll more than likely stay in the upper tier as both Sale and Scherzer should do really well. In terms of hitting, Cleveland and KC both fit very well together and they will be the main part of my build.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 08/10

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 13 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. We have a great slate lined up with solid options for pitching and stacking.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Max Scherzer ($10.6K) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – There isn’t much to say today to sell you on using Scherzer. He proved me very wrong last time and showed that he is match up proof. Scherzer dominated a very solid lineup in the Houston Astros.

Today he faces off against a streaking Phillies team. Hopefully the day off yesterday cools them down a bit. On the year Mad Max has been great. He has an elite 33% K rate and a 3.60 xFIP.

Phillies are a familiar foe as he’s faced them a couple of times already during his Nationals days. In those 2 outings he combined for 17 K’s. Look for another solid performance out of him today.

Alex Wood ($8.6k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Wood has had a couple of rough outings in a row. One vs. a very solid Astros lineup and one vs. these same Diamondbacks in Arizona. The game against the Diamondbacks he had a string of bad luck in the game.

He had an insanely high .500 BABIP and just a 64% LOB %. The hard hit rate against him was just 35.7%. A few of those hits don’t squeak through and we’re talking about a very different game.

Dbacks haven’t been exactly crushing the ball of late. Over the past week they have a 31% K rate with just 5 barrels. I really like Wood’s chances of having a bounce back game today as he heads back home to San Francisco.

Daniel Lynch ($6k) vs. New York Yankees – If you want to get a little crazy tonight, look no farther than Daniel Lynch. Lynch is one of the Royals top pitching prospects on his second tour of duty. The first tour did not go well as he looked over matched in his first 3 starts.

His last 3 starts have been a completely different story. Two of his last 3 starts have been outstanding. One was against a streaking Tigers team and the last was against a tough White Sox lineup. Even the middle start against Toronto he was able to limit damage and ended up with a QS.

The Yankees have a tough lineup, but they also have a bunch of free swingers that have high K rates. This is a very high risk, but equally high reward type of pick for tonight. With a lot of the top pitchers in questionable match ups tonight, you could do a lot worse than Lynch.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Chicago White Sox vs. Griffin Jax – For my primary stack tonight I’m going right back to the well. The White Sox are healthy for the first time in months and they’re going to be a lineup that will do some damage night in and night out. Up and down the lineup they have power and tonight they are facing a pitcher that has been skating by with some luck.

Over the last 30 days he has an ERA of 1.88 but an xFIP and SIERA in the mid 5’s. Any time I see a gap that big I automatically start to look why it’s there. Three things that stick out are his low K rate of 15%, his LOB of 97%, and his near 53% fly ball rate. I’m looking for some regression with him tonight.

About a month ago Jax faced the White Sox and had a decent outing. Not in the lineup were Cesar Hernandez ($3.2k), Eloy Jimenez ($3.4k), and Luis Robert ($2.7k). The lineup he’s going to face tonight is significantly better.

White Sox will see a lot of fastballs tonight as Jax throws it more than 50% of the time. The guys on the team that have the best numbers vs. fastballs are Abreu ($3.7k), Goodwin ($2.5k), and JIminez. I’ll be building my stack around those 3. No hitter is hotter than Jimenez right now and you should prioritize fitting him in.

Seattle Mariners vs. Kolby Allard – The Mariners tonight will be my top secondary stack. They’re getting a match up vs. a pitcher in Allard who has been giving up an astronomical amount of hard contact. In his last 24 innings of work he’s given up 14 barrels.

He’s what we like to say as “wild in the zone”. Hitters have a near 94% contact rate on his pitches in the zone. Batters see his pitches well and until he figures out how to deceive batters, he’s going to continue to get drilled. His power numbers against have actually been worse to lefties this year as his ISO jumps to .236 vs. “just” .178 vs. righties.

My top player in this stack is going to be Kyle Seager ($3.6k). Seager has a .271 ISO and .328 wOBA against lefties this year. Other than his fastball, Allard throws a cutter more than 26% of the time. Ty France ($3.1k) has a .731 slugging % and a .463 wOBA against cutters this year and will also be another piece I want from the Mariners.

New York Mets vs. Paolo Espino – Mets are back home after an extremely embarrassing road trip. This is their final “easy” match up until they face the Giants and Dodgers so I fully expect them to come out hungry. The good thing for them is they are facing a pitcher that attackable in Espino.

Over his last 22 innings he’s given up 5 homers and 9 barrels. Epsino’s biggest struggles have come against righties with a .265 ISO and .338 wOBA. My core here will be built around Pete Alonso ($3.8k) and JD Davis ($2.9k). Davis has a .214 ISO and .414 wOBA against righties this year.

Another guy I’ll look to here is Conforto ($2.6k). He’s starting to show some signs of life in what’s been a poor campaign. He has a 50% fly ball rate and 50% hard hit rate over the past week.

Other offenses I like today the Tigers vs. Keegan Akin and the Pirates vs. J.A. Happ.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching wise Scherzer is my priority tonight. The rest of the expensive guys all have some risks tonight so if I don’t go with Scherzer I’ll drop down to either Alex Wood or drop all the way down to Lynch. White Sox are my priority and I’ll make sure I have at least 3 of them in my lineup.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 07/08

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 7 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

With this slate we have a pitcher’s duel out west with Darvish vs. Mad Max. Both guys should be fun to watch tonight. We also have my favorite pitcher to stack against, Mr. J.A. Happ.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Max Scherzer ($10.9k) vs. San Diego Padres – This isn’t going to be the easiest of match-ups for Scherzer as the Padres have a potent lineup. That said, if there’s anyone out there that can silence the Padres it’s Scherzer.

On the year Max has a 35.4% K rate. If we look at his splits, it’s been pretty even against both sides of the plate. I’m siding with Max in this match-up due to his pitch mix. He throws his slider more than 38% of the time to righties and it’s a pitch he can silence Tatis and Machado with. Both have high whiff rates against this pitch. If you can silence those 2 guys, you’re off to a good start. Not an easy match-up for Scherzer tonight, but he’s my SP1.

Taijuan Walker ($9.5k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – We’ll need to monitor the weather in this game as there is rain in the forecast this evening. If the game plays, I really like Walker tonight. While the Pirates aren’t going to K much, Walker should do enough to return value.

Over the past month his K rate is right up there with Scherzer and Darvish. It’s sitting right around the 30% mark. He’s been doing this by really fooling batters. He has the lowest swing rate in the zone of any pitcher going tonight. By a pretty wide margin too. Batters have only been swinging at 64% of his pitches in the zone. Look for Walker to have one of his better games tonight.

Tarik Skubal ($8.2k) vs. Minnesota Twins – This is more of a boom or bust pick which is ideal for GPP’s. I’m chasing the upside of Skubal in this one. He’s gotten at least 6 K’s in 8 of his last 9 games and the Twins have been striking out a bunch over the past week. Their K rate over the past week is 27% which is the third highest of any team going tonight.

Yes, this match-up poses a risk for Skubal because the Twins have been really good against lefties this year with a lot of power. However, Skubal has shown at times he can handle teams that are solid against lefties with great games against the White Sox, Yankees, and Houston. This is a high risk/high reward pick that is not for the faint of heart.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Detroit Tigers vs. J.A. Happ – It wouldn’t be a Happ slate without me recommending bats against him. Are the Tigers a good offense? Nope. Is Happ a bad pitcher? YES. In my mind bad hitting > bad pitching. While the projected Tigers lineup today has a 28% K rate vs. lefties, they also have a .352 wOBA and a .232 ISO.

Happ is not someone that I’m scared of in terms of strike outs. His CSW over the past month is just 23%. That is tied with Houser for the worst mark on today’s slate. Happ’s been especially bad to righties this year with a 46% fly ball rate and a 43% hard hit rate. I’m locking in Schoop ($3k), Haase ($2.9k), and Grossman ($3.3k). All have shown power against lefties this year with ISO’s great than .200.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Keegan Akin – This is going to be a chalky stack, but on a short slate sometimes you need to eat the chalk. Akin is giving up a homer every 3 innings over the past month. That’s just not good. If we look at this contact type, we also see he’s giving up a ton more hard contact than soft. His hard minus soft rate is sitting at 24% over the past month. Just not a pitcher you want on the hill facing the best lineup in baseball.

With the Orioles blowing through their pen last night due to another short outing from Harvey there’s a very good chance they ask Akin to go longer than he normally would if he gets shelled. This is a good thing for us. Guerrero ($4.7k), Gurriel ($3.3k), Hernandez ($3.5k), and Grichuk ($3.6k) are my main targets as they have had the best success against lefties this year.

Minnesota Twins vs. Tarik Skubal – If you aren’t using Skubal as your pitcher tonight, I highly recommend considering the Twins as a stack. While Skubal has made great strides over the past couple of months, he’s also still shown the propensity to give up homers and hard contact.

His hard hit rate over the past month is sitting close to 50% and his line drive % is nearly 28%. If he isn’t missing any bats, he’s giving up some pretty hard contact. With the Twins we’re getting a team that has been great this season vs. lefties. They own a 107 wRC+ and a .763 OPS. Both very strong indicators of success against south paws.

I’m focused on righties here as Skubal’s fly ball rate vs. righties this year is nearly 48% with a 40% hard hit rate. Cruz ($4k),Polanco ($3.1k), and Jeffers ($2.1k) are my main targets here.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Weather will play a main factor tonight. Half the games are under the threat of rain or thunder showers. We’ll need to keep an eye on things and make sure our pitchers and batters are safe.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 06/27

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

**FD still has the CHW/SEA game on the main slate. I think they’ll follow suit from what DK did and remove it from the main slate since the game is now at 4:30.

Today’s FD slate brings us a couple of studs on the mound and then some mid-range guys that may fit nicely with the Blue Jays. We also have some of my favorite pitchers to pick on, Chi Chi and Happ.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Max Scherzer ($11.2k) vs. Miami Marlins – Mad Max showed a little rust in his last outing after having only thrown 12 pitches over the previous 18 days. In that outing, while he still struck out 8 Phillies, he did throw 106 pitches in 5 IP. My money says he has a much more efficient outing vs. the Marlins today.

Scherzer gets to face off against a team today has really struggled against righties this season. On the year they have a 25% K rate and a measly .135 ISO. Scherzer faced this team earlier this year and had a 9 inning 9 k performance.

While complete games are few and far between these days and I don’t see that happening again, having another 9K performance certainly is within the realm of possibilities.

Patrick Sandoval ($7.8k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – There’s always risk in using pitchers against the Rays as they have a bunch of guys that can homer at any time. They also have a bunch of guys that can K multiple times a game and that’s what we’re chasing in DFS.

On the year the Rays have a 28% K rate against lefties. Of all the teams going today, that’s the highest mark if we look at the handedness of who they are facing.

In Sandoval we’re getting a guy who I think should be at least $1k more expensive than he is. Over the past 30 days Sandoval has a near 33% K rate. That’s in the elite category. He’s also doing a great job limiting hard contact. He’s actually giving up more soft contact than he is hard. Again there’s always a risk in using pitchers vs. the Rays, but this is a good match-up for Sandoval.

Jake Odorizzi ($7.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – After struggling to start the year, Odorizzi has been pitching pretty well of late. Over his last 30 days he has a 3.31 xFIP and a K rate nearing 29%. He’s also been doing a great job of limiting hard contact which is at just 26%. The lineup he’s projected to face today has a 25% K rate on the year to righties. At only $7.6k, we really don’t need much to return value. I’m going to most likely use one of Scherzer or Sandoval, but you could do a lot worse than Odorizzi today.

I noticeably left off both Wheeler and Cole from my list of pitchers. I don’t like either match-up for them, especially at their price points. Wheeler is $11k facing a healthy Mets lineup. He also looked very shaky in his last outing. Could it have been related to no more sticky substances? It very well could be.

Cole is also $11k and facing a very a good Red Sox lineup. He has not been himself over the past 30 days with just a 25% K rate. I’m off both of them today.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles – Blue Jays are the clear cut favorite stack of the day. While Lopez hasn’t been awful over the past 30 days, he’s giving up a ton of contact, of which nearly 40% of it his hard contact. A pitcher throwing to contact vs. a lineup like the Blue Jays is just a recipe for disaster.

Lopez throws his sinker more than 35% of the time to both sides of the plate. Blue Jays, up and down this lineup, have a ton of success vs. this pitch. Semien ($3.7k), Bichette ($4.3k), Springer ($4k), Biggio ($3.3k), Grichuk ($3k), and Gurriel ($3k) all have ISO’s greater than .220 vs. this pitch.

If using this stack today, you could certainly make the case to fade Guerrero as the “other” guys in this lineup are all set up to have a great day and come at a discount from him. Blue Jays have a 6.72 IRT as I write this. The only reason to fade them today is to be different and hope they all forgot how to hit overnight.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – Gonzalez is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. When he’s on the mound, I’m stacking against him. On the year he has a 5.17 xFIP, a 13% K rate, and a 41% hard hit rate. So we have someone that gives up a ton of contact with a healthy amount of that contact being hard contact. In his last 20 innings of work he’s given up 8 barrels. That’s just an absurd rate.

If we dig into splits data, Gonzalez has been giving up more hard contact to righties than lefties. This means we really don’t need to worry about platoon splits much because even righties are tagging him. My main targets from Milwaukee today will be Wong ($3.1k) if he’s back in the lineup, Yelich ($3.8k), Garcia ($2.7k), and Narvaez ($2.4k). If Wong is out I could see Bradley ($2.1k) being moved up to the lead-off spot. Should that happen, I’d love him in the spot.

Cleveland Indians vs. J.A. Happ – Happ’s xFIP is nearing 6 at this point. On the year it’s at 5.93. That’s bad. There’s really nothing else you can say about it. He’s been especially bad against righties this year. He’s giving up a .263 ISO, a 48% fly ball rate, and a 40% hard hit rate vs. righties.

I’m loading up on guys from the right side of the plate today. The top 3 guys vs. lefties this year from the Indians surprisingly don’t include Jose Ramirez ($4.2k). While he’s still in play, he’s expensive. Hernandez ($3.1k), Amed Rosario ($2.6k), and Harold Ramirez ($2.8k) all have ISO’s over .200 this year and come at steep discounts over JRam. Those 3 guys plus Scherzer still gives you nearly $3,100 per player to fill out your roster.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Sunday always presents us with the added risk of veterans sitting due to it being getaway day. Make sure to keep an extra eye on lineups. It’s going to be a hot one on the east coast today so games that are in New York, Boston, and Buffalo may seem some extra offense.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Pitching

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MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces (Early)

MLB DFS: The Bats (Early)

MLB DFS: Main Slate

Summary

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

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