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Jon Rahm (DK $11,100) – We’ve got loads of golfers priced above $9,500 this week, and in the $10K+ range I’m most interested in Rahm in all formats. His game translates well to all types of venues and his play is consistent enough that he just doesn’t need much course history to find the leaderboard. He’s tops in my mixed model and with no cut, he should be able to relax a bit more the first couple of days and let his ball-striking and overall game speak for itself.
Xander Schauffele (DK $10,800) – The X-Man excels in no-cut events and checks all the boxes in the focus stat categories. Both Rahm and Schauffele are decent bets for top 10 finishes here and while I will have shares of both Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas, they aren’t my priorities this week. There may not be a better selection for a Top 5 finish than Xander this week, and that should be reflected in his ownership. If not, we can take advantage in large-field GPPs as well.
Rory McIlroy, (DK $10,400) – I’m a little bit concerned about his performance last week at the Genesis, where he lost strokes to the field T2G and on the putting surface. But if there’s a cure to his ills it’s a return to Florida where he dominates these types of venues and seems a lot more comfortable on Bermuda. There’s been talk that longer hitters will have an advantage here, and given his recent struggles McIlroy is a perfect contrarian GPP play at a small discount, since this could be the week he hoists a trophy again.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,900) – While there’s no professional course history at The Concession, Rahm, Schauffele and a much leaner Bryson all competed here in the 2015 NCAA Championship – which DeChambeau won. His game is a little different now but he seems to be fairly confident heading into this WGC event. As long as I don’t get cold feet before lock, I’ll probably have shares of him in large-field GPPs but the price seems fair given the risk.
Tyrrell Hatton (DK $9,600) – If there’s a value play in the top tier, it’s probably Hatton, whose game is strong in just about every focus stat category (he’s No. 11 on my model). He performs well against stiff competition and the relative lack of familiarity with seeing his name every week could keep his ownership low in GPPs.
Also consider: Dustin Johnson (GPP), Justin Thomas (GPP), Tony Finau (GPP)
*UPDATE: I had Patrick Cantlay listed as an option to consider, but he has withdrawn.
Viktor Hovland (DK $9,400) – The course will be a tough test for Hovland, but he should do well on the scoring holes this week and he’s No. 16 on my model. With three straight finishes in the top six, his game looks sharp these days and he doesn’t lose any points for lack of course experience. I’d like to be ahead of the field in big GPPs, and he’s on my short list for cash and single-entry tournaments.
Webb Simpson (DK $9,100) – He’s not an exciting pick, but he doesn’t make a lot of bogeys and this putter is tops in this field both overall and on Bermuda. If you’re looking in the direction of approach, short game and “thinking” your way around this course (over bombers), then Simpson provides decent value given his strengths.
Collin Morikawa (DK $9,000) – Surprisingly, Morikawa fares better on Bermuda and overperforms on difficult courses, and his elite SG: APP numbers (No. 1 in the field) don’t suffer much on the similar courses we identified in the course bullets (No. 6 in the field). We know he struggles on the greens (he, Joaquin Niemann and Hideki Matsuyama are the worst putters in my model’s Top 20), but the lack of a cut (and the surface) might help him relax.
Sungjae Im (DK $8,800) – Im is easily my favorite play between $8,500 and $9K, and he’s No. 10 overall on my mixed model with solid performance at Florida/Nicklaus venues. This should be a course where he flourishes, and he’s undoubtedly rested and ready to post a Top 10 finish among these giants. Even if he’s popular in GPPs, I’m using him in my core.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,500) – Fitzpatrick putts well pretty much everywhere, but Bermuda is his preferred surface. The lack of prowess off the tee is bit concerning in this star-studded field, but he could be an under-the-radar play and I’ll have some shares in GPPs.
Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,100) – Like Morikawa, Niemann is an excellent ball striker with solid approach and off-the-tee numbers – even among this stiff competition. His bugaboo is putting, and that may help contribute to a few too many three-putt bogeys and some lost strokes to the field. Still – he finished solo second at the no-cut Sentry Tournament of Champions and T2 at the Sony Open before a T43 last week at the Genesis, so the form is solid.
Will Zalatoris (DK $8,000) – Sia likes Willie Z as your first-round leader, and that’s a pretty good call considering the impressive stamp he’s made so early in his PGA career. The fact that this value-laden rookie has already snuck into the Top 50 in the world and qualified for this event says a lot about his game, and like some of the other youngsters playing here this week, he doesn’t lose any points for lack of experience.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $7,900) – On the opposite end of the experience spectrum, we have the veteran South African – whose most recent finish was a T11 at the Waste Management Open a few weeks ago. Bermuda isn’t his favorite surface and he doesn’t pop for his performance on Florida or similar courses, but I just can’t count him out at this price point. He’s a competitive golfer in any field and his ownership should be well under 10%.
Also consider: Daniel Berger, Cameron Smith, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Jason Day (GPP), Justin Rose, Matthew Wolff (GPP)
Sergio Garcia (DK $7,500) – The thing that stood out the most about Garcia (apart from the MC last week at the Genesis) is that he absolutely thrives on Florida courses. In fact, when I isolated SG:APP for the similar courses (identified in the preview bullets), he came out tops in the field. We know he’s a great ball striker who posts excellent SG:OTT numbers, and ball striking goes a long way in no-cut events.
Harris English (DK $7,500) – English hasn’t been playing well lately, but the price is just too low and he’s the only sub-$8K golfer who makes the top 20 of my mixed model this week. He won the last no-cut tournament he played (the Sentry) and there’s just no way I won’t have heavy shares of him in all formats. A great value play for both SE and cash, and a guy that will be party of my core for large-field GPPs.
Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – While we don’t really have course horses this week, Leishman pops in my model for the venue attributes that matter and he really overperforms on Bermuda. He might be popular for GPPs this week, but it’s not terrible chalk given his upside and value.
Ryan Palmer (DK $7,200) – Speaking of value, I’m right there with Sia’s interpretation of a DK misprice for Palmer this week. He’s the 36th most expensive golfer this week (middle of the 72-man pack) but he’s No. 25 on my model and he’s got much shorter odds to win than golfers priced $500 to $1,000 more than him. He’s far from the best putter in the field, but he’s worth a look in all formats.
Kevin Kisner (DK $7,000) – Kisner’s only knock among our focus stats is SG:OTT, but he’s in the top 10 in SG:APP, top five in putting, and ranks No. 23 o my overall model – pretty amazing for a $7K golfer. Like Palmer, I think that he’s mispriced and I’ll be taking full advantage in all formats – even considering him for my single-entry GPP team. Kisner’s last no-cut event saw him finish T24 and while he hasn’t played since mid-January, I’m excited about his prospects in Florida.
Abraham Ancer (DK $6,800) – A T17 finish at the Sentry and T5 at the AMEX stick out as highlights among his last five starts, which included two missed cuts – something we don’t have to worry about this week. He probably won’t be a member of my core build (if I end up having one this week) but Ancer makes lots of sense as a final piece under $7K in GPPs.
Lanto Griffin (DK $6,700) – He’s been striking it well recently and we know he can putt – on just about any surface. I have concerns about how well his game will translate to such a difficult, unknown type of track, and his performance on similar courses isn’t all that exciting (No. 52 in the field). If we’re rostering Lanto, it’s for his talent and ability to get the putter going well over the course of a guaranteed four days.
More value golfers to consider: Bubba Watson (GPP), Carlos Ortiz, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Lee Westwood, Bernd Wiesberger, Rasmus Hojgaard
Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,400) – Hughes gets hot with his putter pretty frequently, and he’s another guy who could post a super low score on a difficult course given a few cracks at it. He’s far from a cash game play and I wouldn’t include him in my single-entry builds, but I large-field GPPs where we have to get a little creative, he’s a fine last piece at this price point.
Erik van Rooyen (DK $6,200) – EVR is the only guy under $6,500 who makes my model’s top 30, and if he can stay away from the big number this week and strike the ball well for four days, we could see him threaten the leaderboard by Sunday. We don’t have a cut looming over him, so hopefully he can stay focused and let his sound overall game take flight.
Additional punts: Cameron Champ, Brendan Todd (GPP)
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Dustin Johnson (DK $11,300) – DJ has a solid course history (he ran away with the event in 2017 with a -17 score, five strokes clear of Thomas Pieters) and he is the betting favorite with ownership expected around 15-20 percent. One way to approach that in GPPs is by doubling the expected field ownership – a strategy I used last week with Patrick Cantlay.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – Thomas won’t be as popular as usual this week in GPPs, but he’s second in my model and he almost won here in 2019 – choking away his shot at victory with a four-over-par 75 in the final round. JT actually missed the cut here last season, so there are some bad vibes he’d like to exorcise. I’ll definitely have shares, but he’s almost a contrarian play this week.
Rory McIlroy (DK $10,500) – Rory debuted at the Waste Management at TPC Scottsdale with a somewhat disappointing T13 and has nine consecutive top 25s. The troublesome part is that his last win came in November 2019 at the WGC-HSBC, so he’s a risky play at this price point. Perhaps his consecutive Top 5 finishes at Riviera and ability to both avoid bogeys and gain strokes off the tee (tops in the field in both categories) will allow for a breakthrough win.
Jon Rahm (DK $10,400) – Rahmbo drives it well, is a maestro on and around the green, and has been less affected by bad breaks as he matures. Let’s remember – the Spaniard is still just 26 years old, a fact that makes his failure to notch more than one Top 5 (T2 at the ZOZO in October) since September a bit more palatable. What he does have is six straight Top 15 finishes since his T23 at the U.S. Open, and the ability to win at just about any event.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,100) – If there’s a course that favors Bryson the Beefy Big Boy, his aggressive lines, bomb-and-gouge style and arm-lock putting style, it’s Riviera – because he’s still pretty decent around the greens and the ultra-fast Poa Annua could favor his ability to get the ball on the right line. He may not be the best cash game play because he’s still pretty volatile and he can let a few bogeys and bad shots get the better of him but taking a stand with him at 30-40% in GPPs could really pay off this week.
Xander Schauffele (DK $9,900) – Schauffele (No. 10 on my mixed model) arrives with consecutive T2 finishes at Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale and is a California kid playing in an event that favors high-performing West Coast swing golfers. He’s a near lock for cash games and single-entry tournaments and I’ll have plenty of shares (shooting for around 25-30 percent to stay ahead of the field) in large field GPPs.
Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Cantlay (Cash), Collin Morikawa
Tony Finau (DK $9,300) – Finau could almost be a better cash game play than GPP this week, because he’s a great course fit who has made three straight cuts at Riviera – including a T2 in 2018 – and he usually sucks in the final round. We know he can burn us, but he’s No. 8 on my model because of his strength T2G, only lacking in the short game components and closing the deal on Sundays.
Adam Scott (DK $9,000) – The Aussie is a relatively safe play in all formats and I won’t talk you off including his in single entry – but he’s struggled to finish in the Top 10 (his T10 at Torrey Pines is his first since his two-shot victory here last year in a similarly strong field. That win came after a furious comeback that saw his make up eight shots over the last three rounds. Scott likes it here – he has six top 10s in 12 starts and is the tournament’s all-time earnings leader, according to PGATour.com.
Bubba Watson (DK $8,900) – Bubba is a course horse and a great narrative this week (go read the recent PGA Tour article about his struggles with mental illness), so I’m grabbing a few shares in GPPs and hopefully coming in around the field number. He’s a “self-taught, highly visual” player (and No. 25 on my model) who has won here twice despite his volatility and tendency to make a few bogeys.
Max Homa (DK $8,200) – Homa’s game is really rounding into form (five straight made cuts after his MC at the Masters) and he’s starting to seem more comfortable on the leaderboard – something that could come in handy in this tough field. My model isn’t in love with him (his T2G and ARG game don’t crack the Top 100), but he’s a local resident who finished T7 at Pebble Beach last week and notched a personal-best T5 at Riviera last year, so I’ll be overweight in GPPs and he might make my single-entry GPP when it’s all said and done.
Kevin Na (DK $7,900) – Na is the prototypical GPP play this week on a course where he’s had lots of success (T2 in 2018 and T4 in 2017) and a few dismal outcomes (MCs in 2015 and 2020). His Top 5 upside makes him a superb tournament option at this price point, and his 2021 form (a win at the Sony Open in January and a T21 in his last start in a EURO event at the Saudi International, keeps my confidence high enough to roster him in this tough field.
Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,800) – I know that his high ownership is going to scare folks off – Joel and Sia both talked about it in the breakdown video, but I still like his chance at a Top 10 here and might just try to outpace the field by locking him into a third of my large-field GPP lineups. Just be conscious of his ownership this week and know that everyone (and their mothers) will be on him.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,600) – Joel brought up my bae Fitzy in the breakdown, and while the wispy Englishman is not popping on my model and he hasn’t played the West Coast swing, there’s plenty to like about his short game and what he could do at a second try at Riviera (T30 in his debut last year). He’s not a long hitter, but he likes super-fast greens and doesn’t make a ton of bogeys – which could keep him in contention if he can avoid the one bad round that sometimes plagues him.
Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Marc Leishman (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Cameron Smith, Jason Kokrak, Abraham Ancer, Gary Woodland, Sergio Garcia, Cameron Tringale
James Hahn (DK $7,500) – Hahn checks a few boxes this week, from his West Coast form to his excellent course history at Riviera and inclusion in the Top 50 of my model. As long as ownership doesn’t eclipse 10%, he’ll make about 1/5 (or more) of my GPP builds.
Sam Burns (DK $7,400) – A big hitter with the tee ball game and lots of scoring upside, Burns is a dynamic player who’s fared well on the West Coast and hasn’t missed a cut since a disappointing performance at the Sanderson Farms Championship in early October. If he can scramble a little better than usual this week, he could contend.
Luke List (DK $7,300) – Both Sia and I are drawn to List and his dynamic game, and he’s shown an affinity for this venue despite some periodic struggles where good golf seems to somehow allude him. The long-hitting tour veteran has made four of his last five cuts here highlighted by three straight top 30 finishes, and he’s No. 23 on my mixed model – good enough to make a handful of my 20 max lineups and one or two large-field GPPs like the one on DK that pays $300K to the winner.
Matt Kuchar (DK $7,200) – His last Top 10 was a T2 at last year’s Genesis Invitational, and the rest of his record here is pretty impressive. But last year’s finish came after a T16 at the Waste Management and T38 at Pebble Beach, so there was some form to consider. I can’t possibly recommend enormous shares of Kuchar this week, but he’s an elite scrambler and he could make for a decent fit in a lineup where you’re rostering DJ, DeChambeau and a bunch of guys around $7K.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (DK $7,100) – K.H. has a great track record at Riviera and is somehow staying under the radar and 10% ownership despite a T2 at the Waste Management Open a couple of weeks ago – a tournament where he made just five bogeys in four days. There’s reasonable Top 10 upside this week despite the affordable price, and he’s got a good shot at making my big-money (for me) single-entry GPP team.
Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – The WinDaily golf writer group text discussion kicked off this week with some Reavie talk, and I was immediately intrigued. This may be the precise moment to jump on him and ride him for a few events, because it’s all about timing with a low-owned Chez – who can have stretches of solid play and is coming off a T16 at Pebble Beach. The season stats are somewhat unimpressive, but he’s an excellent ball striker who’s had two top 10s in his last five tries at Riviera – two of the other three being missed cuts. Last year’s T10 here was on the heels of a T25 finish at the AT&T, and he just cracks the Top 50 of my model this week.
Joel Dahmen (DK $6,900) – Sia loves him for one good round, and Joel loves him for his sexy first name, but Dahmen’s game is pretty solid all-round and he’s finished T5 here last year, which was tied for his best finish of 2020 (the other being a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational). I won’t have big shares, but 10 percent of my GPPs will keep me way ahead of the field and allow for some leverage if he puts together three good rounds and posts a Top 25.
Michael Thompson (DL $6,700) – Thompson did have a MC at the Waste Management sandwiched between a T5 at the AMEX and a solid-enough T34 at Pebble Beach last week, but he’s a solid value play in a price range that usually doesn’t feature much Top 10 upside – which Thompson flashed at this very event with a T7 in 2019. The model isn’t farting out roses when it comes to Mr. T, but there’s a case to be made for his low-owned keister in GPPs.
More value golfers to consider: Cameron Davis (GPP), Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, Talor Gooch (GPP), Wyndham Clark (GPP), Matthew NeSmith, Charles Howell (Cash), Harold Varner III, Brandon Grace (GPP), Vaughn Taylor, Scott Piercy
Sung Kang (DK $6,500) – Kang has been bad in 2021, but he wasn’t exceptional in 2020 when he posted a T2 at the Genesis Invitational. He’s a super high risk play only suited for 1/20 studs-and-scrubs GPPs, but that’s right around where his ownership will be because of he hasn’t missed a cut here.
Brian Stuard (DK $6,400) – Stuard is my favorite play under $6,500, and that’s mainly because he’s 3-for-4 here with a Top 25 last year, his form is decent (made cut in Phoenix and T16 at Pebble Beach last week) and he’s really good around the greens. He’s probably not gaining many strokes off the tee this week, but the T2G numbers are okay and he’s super cheap.
Pat Perez (DK $6,400) – Perez has had a rough 2021 but he’s trending up with a T26 last week and there’s plenty of correlation between Pebble and Riviera to weigh that more heavily than the four straight missed cuts in October-November. Conversely, he’s MADE four straight cuts in the Genesis and should fly under the radar this week.
Mark Hubbard (DK $6,300) – I think Hubbard is mispriced at just $6,300 this week, because he’s very strong out of the gate (with opening rounds of 63 and 66 in his last two events) and has made seven of his last nine cuts. Perhaps he’s best used in first-round lineups or as a prop bet for low round of day, but I’m going to mix him into my GPPs. He hasn’t played here since 2017 but snuck under the cutline in his only two attempts.
Additional punt options: J.B. Holmes (GPP), Jim Furyk, Denny McCarthy (GPP), C.T. Pan, Jimmy Walker (GPP)
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Webb Simpson (DK $11,200) – I’m still interested in massive shares of Webb (the runaway #1 in my models) for GPPs – even though he’s bound to get popular. I made that mistake last week with DJ (where I ended up fading instead of doubling the field ownership) and I’m not doing it this week at a tournament where he’s dominated. Simpson has been playing well, and we can differentiate our lineups elsewhere with salary surplus and other more low-owned golfers. I’m locking him in in all formats.
Russell Henley (DK $10,100) – It’s easy to forget about Henley (I almost just did) even though he’s had success at Sea Island (with three straight top 10s) and has played well since the restart (9-for-9 with four top 10). He’s also tops in the field for SG:APP, our No. 1 focus stat.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,900) – This course seems to be well suited for Fitzpatrick’s game, though it’s the first time he’s played here. He’s going to hit fairways, make putts and score in the 60s in all four rounds. Maybe he’ll even win and then join the Sea Island Mafia.
Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Harris English
Brian Harman (DK $8,500) – I like how Harman is trending from a safety perspective (top 30 finishes ion four straight, and 11 straight made cuts) and he’s a Sea Island resident with a T4 and a T14 at the RSM Classic. At this price, he’s got excellent top 10 upside.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,100) – Munoz, who finished third at the RSM last year, is playing pretty sharp golf right now. After finishing T8 in the 2020 FedExCup, he’s only made six straight cuts with four top 25s and a T19 at the Masters last week.
Kevin Kisner (DK $8,600) – He loves the venue and feels like an excellent value in this mid-range. He could be a solid core player in cash games or even single- entry GPP.
Mackenzie Hughes (DK $8,100) – Hughes is a little riskier than some of the other guys at this price point, but he won the RSM in 2016 and we know how hot this birdie-maker can get with the flatstick.
Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Based on the models, Gooch doesn’t do one thing particularly well, but he’s excellent across the board and finished T23 here last season, so he’ll make some of my GPP builds.
C.T. Pan (DK $7,900) – Perhaps the ultimate GPP play, Pan finished T7 at the Masters last week and has mixed in a T6 with a T13 (in 2016 & ’17) and a MC (2018) at the RSM. Driver isn’t a huge factor here and the price is very affordable.
Denny McCarthy (DK $7,700) – Don’t look his way in cash games, but feel free to deploy one of the tour’s best putters in tournaments. He stumbled out of the gate last year with a 71 on the Plantation course (but led the field in SG: P) en route to a T8 finish.
Also consider: Louis Oosthuizen, Corey Conners, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Ian Poulter, Doc Redman (GPP), Zach Johnson, Matthew Wallace, Alex Noren (GPP)
Austin Cook (DK $7,500) – I love this $7-8K price range and Cook headlines the value group right in the middle of it. He’s won here (2017), he’s 3-for-3 in made cuts and the podcast guys love him.
Chez Reavie (DK $7,500) – Reavie hits fairways and peppers flagsticks, though his scoring has been a little lackluster since a T3 at the Safeway in September. The T29 at Augusta should give him confidence.
Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner is on the short list of guys under $7,500 who could notch a win here, and he’ll be out to prove something after not qualifying for the Masters last week.
J.T. Poston (DK $7,300) – After three straight missed cuts at the RSM, Poston finished T14 last season and could be a low-owned GPP play with enough upside to make 2/10 of my linueps.
Henrik Norlander (DK $7,100) – Norlander will be off most people’s radar, but he’s popping in my mixed models (second overall) and I’m going to have massive shares compared to the field. Norlander withdrew on Wednesday after testing positive for COVID-19.
Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,000) – He’s generating chatter among the WinDaily staff, is third in SG:APP in the field and finished T14 in his debut here last season. Good enough for me to use him in GPPs.
Patton Kizzire (DK $6,800) – A brilliant putter who I rode to some solid finishes in the Shriners and at the Houston Open, Kizzire is still very cheap and has struck the ball well lately.
Lucas Glover (DK $6,800) – He let me down at the Masters and cost me a decent chunk of change by relegating a few of my would be 6/6 lineups into also-rans, but I’ll try again since he’s 3-for-3 at the RSM with a T6 in 2015 and T11 in 2018.
More value golfers to consider: Joel Dahmen, Matt Kuchar, Cameron Tringale, Emiliano Grillo, Tyler Duncan, Harry Higgs, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Tom Hoge (GPP), David Hearn
Hudson Swafford (DK $6,400) – Swafford is a member of the Sea Island Mafia and won as recently as the Corales in September. He’s just the type of sub-$7K player I want to target in GPPs to leave a few bucks on the table when I have a little over $7K to spend.
Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,400) –He’s notched two Top 10s in three years at the RSM but missed cuts in eight of his last nine tournaments will scare off the masses. A punt play for sure, but not without a “course horse” narrative.
Additional punts: Nick Watney, Chase Seifert, Jonathan Byrd, Jamie Lovemark
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Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – The big boy’s been inciting some audible gasps at his length this week during practice rounds (we’re talking driver-7-iron on the 575-yard Par 5 second hole and driver-wedge at the 13th), and there’s a lot of chatter about how his new power approach could dominate. Bryson’s similarly innovative arm-lock style on the greens could also exorcise his Augusta putting demons, so I’m grabbing plenty of GPP shares – even at top dollar.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – While I don’t blindly follow my PGA DFS models, Thomas is at the top of mine this week. This is his fifth appearance at Augusta National – where he’s scored better and finished higher in each attempt. He’s still without a top ten, but JT is remarkable with his ball-striking here – ranking 11th, sixth, second and third in greens hit over the last four years. The recent form has been solid, with a win and three runners-up in the restart, and I’m willing to take a shot at what could be lower ownership than Jon Rahm and DJ, the next two guys on the pricing chart,
Jon Rahm ($10,500) – The Spaniard’s recent results have been staggeringly good – with six victories, five seconds and three third place finishes worldwide since he finished, he notched a top 10 at last season’s Masters. That T9 finish was on the heels of a fourth-place finish here in 2018 – so it’s safe to say he doesn’t have major problems contending here, pun intended.
Dustin Johnson (DK $10,000) – The two missed starts due to COVID-19 could have thrown a wrench into his prep, but over his last six events that straddled that spell, he’s almost in a class by himself. DJ had a T2 here in 2019 – his fourth consecutive top 10 (he was injured in 2017) – and my biggest concern about him is always his putter.
Xander Schauffele (DK $9,800) – If you were wondering who was second in my model, look no further. The X-Man has been described as a “quick study” at Augusta, going from 50th in 2018 to T2 at the 2019 Masters. In total, he’s played 13 majors in his career and has made the cut in 12 and finished six times among the top 10. His form is solid too, so I can’t imagine a much better core play in cash or GPP.
Also consider: Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Reed (DK $9,200) – He’s only average off the tee, which may be a bigger factor than normal is this course plays soft, but his game around the greens have helped him win here before (-18 in 2015). A fine GPP option with winning upside.
Tiger Woods (DK $9,100) – I’d be fine coming in around or a bit under the field’s ownership percentage for GPPs, because I have a hard time seeing him defend without much form to speak of, but you can’t count him out at Augusta.
Adam Scott (DK $8,900) – Scott won at both Riviera (in February) and in December at the Australian PGA and doesn’t have any top 20s since then. But he won at Augusta in 2013 and has five career top 10s here. He loves this place (16 made cuts out of 18) and you can’t really blame him.
Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – I’d love to have the brass to put my Finau GPP ownership at 100 percent, but I’ve been burned by him before. The longtime tournament “bridesmaid” has played quite well in a short sample at Augusta (T10 in 2018 and T5 in 2019) and he’s been a relatively consistent golfer this season.
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – Despite a near perfect fit for the venue, Matsuyama has actually placed worse in each year he’s played Augusta since 2015, but it’s a different time and he’s putting with confidence lately and dominating par 5s – a game changer for this ball-striking maestro. I’m definitely interested in GPPs if he doesn’t get too popular.
Jason Day (DK $8,400) – He’s long enough and sharp enough around the greens to win here, with five straight Top 30s at Augusta and plenty of good mojo in his last few starts. In a perfect world, awesome dudes like Jason Day would win more majors.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,600) – The numbers in my focus stats for Fitzpatrick look like the heartrate monitor of an astronaut – he’s no worse than 33rd (BoB Gained) and no better than 23rd (SG: P) in any one category. This week, I’m most excited about his elite short game, and most concerned about his average length.
Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Bubba Watson, Matthew Wolff (GPP), Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose (GPP)
Phil Mickelson (DK $7,500) – Lefty is like an older Tiger without the back issues and has similar struggles to Woods keeping it in the fairway – but he’s still made four out of his last five cuts at Augusta. He’s also got three green jackets and 15 (wow) top 10s, his last Top 5 coming via a T2 in 2015.
Cameron Smith (DK $7,300) – My model is not kind to Smith, who fares poorly in several of the focus stat categories – but he’s 3-for-3 here with a T5 in 2018, and he’s a solid mid-level value considering his steadily improving play and string of made cuts since the memorial in July. Even his fellow Aussies think he’s got a shot this year in his fourth Masters appearance.
Lee Westwood (DK $7,200) – I’ll throw out his missed cut and focus on his record in the last decade here, which includes five top 10s since 2010. He’s not without his risk, as he hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s still pretty long off the tee for an older fellow and there’s lots of upside at this price.
Kevin Kisner (DK $7,100) – He’s far from a bomber, but Kisner is always good with the putter and around the greens, and he can compete in tough fields. His record here isn’t as good as the similarly priced Matt Kuchar, but he’s 4-for-4 here and could be primed for a Top 10 if the stars align.
Cameron Champ (DK $7,100) – The ultimate GPP wildcard, Champ will get the nod in my large-field tourneys at about a 15-20 percent clip, depending on this masher’s projected ownership. He’ll be there because of two factors – his ranking atop the SG:OTT category and his growing confidence in tougher fields.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – No signs of decay in this witty Brit, who remains among the Top 50 in the world rankings and usually plays well at Augusta, with 12 made cuts in 13 tries. Pair that with a great price and the No. 29 ranking in my model and you get a guy worth using in all formats.
Francesco Molinari (DK $6,700) – He’s way too cheap and can get insanely hot with the putter — and while it took him a while to warm up to Augusta, his last two finishes (T20 in 2018, T5 in 2019) suggest he’s learning the ropes. Molinari has played just twice since February, but the T15 at Houston last week looks like an upward arrow to me.
Lanto Griffin (DK $6,600) – Lanto could be ready to make the jump into the OWGR Top 50, but Augusta makes for a difficult virgin test. The Masters rookie is far from a cash game play and may not even crack the Top 20, but he’s No. 36 in my model and could end up in a few of my GPPs.
More value golfers to consider: Shane Lowry, Jason Kokrak, Erik Van Rooyen, Bernd Wiesberger, Zach Johnson (GPP), Si Woo Kim, Matt Wallace (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (cash), Corey Conners, Christian Bezuidenhout (GPP)
Adam Hadwin (DK $6,500) – He’s no doubt a longshot to win (250-1), but he’s 2-for-2 at Augusta, he’s popping in all my models and he has the second-shot chops to finish in the Top 20 here. I’m all over him this week and he’s an early leverage-play staple of my single-entry GPP builds.
Lucas Glover (DK $6,400) –Glover occupies the spot in this column that Patton Kizzire took up last week (he finished T11), and there’s a similarity between the two players – they can both roll it really well. If Glover can find fairways and make the cut, a Top 25 is well within reach at a venue that’s given him some trouble before.
JT Poston (DK $6,200) – A slight fellow with decent length off the tee, Poston is another guy that isn’t awful at anything. He’s a first-timer at Augusta but if the course is playing easier than usual, he could make for a fine value at this near-minimum price.
Additional punts: Chez Reavie (cash), Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Victor Perez, Charles Howell, Jimmy Walker
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Xander Schauffele (DK $11,200) – Schauffele squandered a 36-hole lead at the CJ Cup as Jason Kokrak won for the first time on the PGA Tour, leaving Schauffele with his fourth second-place finish since his last win – way back in January 2019 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This week, he’s the most expensive golfer and makes for a fine play in all formats because of his accuracy off the tee, his “no-cut specialist” status and all-around complete golf game. Whether or not I use him in GPPs depends on ownership as we approach lock.
Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – Rahmbo finished the 2019 season in the PGA Tour’s Top 20 in GIR and this week will have hopefully shaken off some of the rust that plagued him in Las Vegas. There’s no reason to fade him this week and plenty to like about his performance in the WinDaily projection model (second after Xander). I love him as a GPP play this week.
Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton finished T3 last week at Shadow Creek and now has five Top 25s in his last six starts – made all the more impressive considering he’s played a limited schedule. There aren’t many players better T2G than Hatton, who brings plenty of upside to the ZOZO.
Patrick Reed (DK $9,600) – Reed is eschewing mechanics and metrics en route to his approach – which places more emphasis on feel. He’s not the best off the tee, but he’s a SG hero with one of the best short games in golf. As long as he’s not missing every fairway, he should do well at Sherwood.
Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Justin Thomas (cash), Webb Simpson, Tony Finau (GPP)
Viktor Hovland (DK $9,200) – After firing a disappointing opening-round 75, Hovland settled down and played the next 36 holes 9-under par ultimately finishing in the Top 15 at Shadow Creek. His domination of Par 5s could prove to be an enormous help this week (there are five Par 5s at Sherwood) as he seeks another PGA Tour win.
Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Wolff got off to an abysmal start last Thursday with an opening round 80, and pretty much never recovered in the no-cut CJ Cup. He’s still one of the longest hitters in the game (averaging 311.6 yards per drive in 2019-20) and the SG: Off the Tee stat is an important one this week at Sherwood, which is not far from where Wolff grew up.
Tiger Woods (DK $9,000) – Because he’s struggled recently and hasn’t played much, it’s easy to forget that Tiger won the ZOZO last year when it was held overseas. At the time, he was coming off a two-month layoff, so I’m not that concerned with rust, especially at a no-cut event on a course he’s dominated (five titles – all from the Hero World Challenge – at Sherwood).
Daniel Berger (DK $8,900) – Berger fares very well in the WinDaily model and is a tremendous buy-low value after a few pedestrian finishes over his last four tournaments (T28 at Shadow Creek and T34 in the U.S. Open).
Harris English (DK $8,800) – English missed the cut at the Shriners a couple of weeks back, but consistently finishes in the Top 10. He makes for a great cash game play and works for tournaments as well.
Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,400) – His finishes have steadily increased week-to-week since the Tour Championship, and while he occasionally misses a cut, that’s not a problem this week. He’s a fine value in this price range and has the T2G chops to win here.
Abraham Ancer (DK $7,800) – Ancer played some impressive golf at the Shriner’s with steady play in the mid 60s all week (4th place w/ 66-66-65-67), and finished T28 last week at the CJ Cup. If the putter can get hot again, he’s looking like a great play under $8K.
Also consider: Bubba Watson, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, Adam Scott (GPP)
Paul Casey (DK $7,500) – The value play of the $7-8K range, Casey finished T69 last week but maintains plenty of upside in GPPs despite his inconsistent play this season. He’s a dynamic player who showed us at the PGA Championship how well he can play when he’s finding his groove.
Justin Rose (DK $7,400) – I have my concerns about his short game, but I’ll give Rose a shot in some GPPs at a no-cut event based on his low price and the theory that his solid T2G game will eventually come around.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,200) – Another solid ball-striker who’s stepped up his game lately,Munoz makes for a viable DFS play at a really affordable price.
Cameron Smith (DK $7,200) – We said last week that Smith doesn’t seem to be intimidated by strong fields and he wasn’t – en route to a solo 11th place. If his ball-striking recovers, he could sneak into the Top 10 this week.
Lanto Griffin (DK $7,000) – Ownership might be high this week since he finished T7 at the CJ Cup, but his price is still very affordable and he’s a solid enough putter to make up for a few wayward shots.
Cameron Champ (DK $6,800) – Champ may be a longshot to win, but he’s really long off the tee and he’s the kind of outlier player I like using in GPPs. With no cut and his length possibly coming into play at elevation with the lower temperatures than normal, I’m a fan.
Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Last week was Kokrak’s time…now Higgs is looking for his time to shine. In his search for his first PGA Tour win, a strong T2G game will help his cause,
More value golfers to consider: Brian Harman, Ryan Palmer (GPP), Talor Gooch, Alex Noren (GPP), Byeong Hun An, Corey Conners (GPP)
Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,500) – The WinDaily model loves him this week and I’m too intrigued by his upside to worry about the T65 finish last week. I’m jumping right back on board at this price.
Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – As Sia pointed out on the ZOZO stream, Hoge is a really good player who just doesn’t hit it that long off the tee. He’s a longshot, but he’s got Top 25 upside this week.
Michael Thompson (DK $6,100) – Thompson won the 3M in July and has struggled since. But he’s near the minimum price on DK and clearly has the upside to make sense for some GPP lineups.
Additional punts: Joel Dahmen, Richy Werenski (GPP), Tyler Duncan, Ryo Ishikawa
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Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – While we don’t have any real course history to look at, we do know that Rahm is the type of golfer who performs well in no-cut events, and he’s the betting favorite this week with Dustin Johnson withdrawing after a positive COVID test. He could get chalky, but he’s a fine cash game play and should be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – It’s easy to forget how much of a complete golfer JT is, especially since he has been overshadowed by some of the game’s other (younger) stars. But this PGA tour veteran remains an elite ball striker who excels in approach shots from all distances. That’s going to help this week.
Xander Schauffele (DK $11,400) – Fading Xander seems like a bad idea this week. The X-Man has an impressive record in no-cut events and is capable of dominating from start to finish, even in tough fields like this.
Matthew Wolff (DK $10,000) – Is there a hotter golfer than Wolff? His form and makeup suggest that rostering him is a priority, and there’s reason to believe this T2G monster might come in at low enough ownership to make him a tourney-breaking large-field GPP option. It’s a second-shot golf course, and nobody’s more dialed in than him right now.
Collin Morikawa (DK $9,500) – Recency bias could keep the masses off Morikawa, but he’s a great value golfer and high-upside player who belongs in the top tier. He’s 30-1 to win at the CJ Cup, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t take down this field and emerge victorious in Vegas.
Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton
Daniel Berger (DK $9,300) – Berger is another talented performer who’s elevated his game over the past calendar year, and I’ll have massive shares of him in lineups that use only one of the elite-tier golfers above. Roster construction is going to be tricky this week, but Berger offers some salary relief in all formats – without sacrificing too much upside.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,900) – Can he back up his smack-talking comments criticizing Beefy Bryson now that he’ll get some extra distance from elevation? It’s a 7,500-yard course, and since I’m a massive fan of his T2G and short game, I’ll give him a look in GPPs.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $8,800) – The PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year is one of the best values in the field, and he ranks inside the top 25 in par 5 scoring since the restart. He’s a birdie maker with plenty of GPP upside, even though his past couple of events (withdrew due to COVID, MC) haven’t gone all that well.
Sungjae Im (DK $8,700) – Speaking of upside, I’m intrigued by Im’s recent play and think this could be the week he breaks through with a Top 5 finish. The ball-striking and approach game has improved over the past few events and the South Korean offers massive value at this depressed price.
Harris English (DK $8,600) – Another solid golfer who continues to perform at a high level but hasn’t seen a huge price jump, English makes plenty of sense for cash game builds here. He’s not super exciting to roster, but he gets it done in all types of fields and events.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,500) – Outside of a third-place finish at a remarkably tough Winged Foot at the U.S. Open and a T6 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, his upside has been lacking a bit. But there’s still a really dynamic golfer in there who loves to shine at big events, and the no-cut format should help him stay birdie-focused. Worth a look in all formats.
Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Paul Casey, Brendan Todd, Gary Woodland
Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,500) – Niemann misses a cut once in a while, but that isn’t a problem this week, and his form suggests he could be the best value within the $7-8K range. He’s a wonderful player T2G, and his confidence is building.
Si Woo Kim (DK $7,100) – Kim is way too cheap for how well he handles the slings and arrows that different golf courses will throw at him, and he offers a steady combination of solid approaches and serviceable short game. With three top-15 finishes in his past seven starts, I’ll have plenty of shares at this low price.
Corey Conners (DK $6,900) – The first of three Canadians in this price range we have to discuss, Conners is a longshot to win (100-1) but possesses the game to do well here and should have a good chance at making the Top 20. I’ll have some shares in GPPs.
Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,800) – Canadian number two has a little more upside because of his birdie-making ability and recent form (four Top-15s in his last five starts). The price works, too.
Cameron Smith (DK $6,800) – Smith doesn’t seem to be intimidated by strong fields and he’s had success at this event in the past – albeit at a different venue. He’s also posted four Top-25s in his past five events and has soaring GPP upside under $7K.
Adam Hadwin (DK $6,700) – Another Canadian who could benefit from the extra distance from elevation at this course, Hadwin is a textbook second-shot golfer who sometimes struggles with the flat stick. He does, however, offer plenty of safety for cash game builds in this price range.
More value golfers to consider: Ian Poulter, Alex Noren, Bubba Watson (GPP), Brian Harman, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Marc Leishman (GPP), Ryan Palmer, Kevin Na, Dylan Frittelli
Kevin Streelman (DK $6,500) – He’s solid T2G and excels in his approaches, and this might be just the venue for him to sneak in a Top 10 under the radar. Not a sexy pick, but worth a look in all formats.
Cameron Champ (DK $6,400) – Champ occasionally struggles with his putter but the complete game has rounded into better form in the past calendar year. He’s no longer just a bomb-and-gouge player with little to offer outside massive length, and he’ll have no problem tackling the longer holes here.
Lanto Griffin (DK $6,300) – Griffin had a couple of Top 20s heading into the U.S. Open, and while he missed the cut last week, he made seven straight before that. With those concerns off the table, we can safely consider him as a viable punt option with Top 20 upside.
Additional punts: Harry Higgs, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge, Tyler Duncan
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Before we get into the picks this week, let’s talk a little about how this is not your typical tournament. Taking into account the season change, the conditions, the unfamiliarity with the course for the majority of field, and the history of U.S. Opens at this storied venue, we could see the winning score in the +5 to +8 range.
That means we don’t necessarily need a slew of birdie makers; the course has only one hole that’s considered a “birdie hole” by the players – the 321-yard Par 4 6th hole. We certainly want talented golfers who can hit fairways, fly in some under-the-wind approaches like D.J., scramble with the best of them and make some putts, but we don’t need to emphasize things like Birdie or Better% and Opportunities Gained.
I think exceedingly poor putters are out, and really awesome putters might be too because it’s nearly impossible to gain a lot of strokes with the flat stick this week given the terrifying green complexes.
Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500) – DJ is the hottest golfer on tour and has the exact set of skills to dominate here. We’ve learned a lot about his mettle the past several weeks and he’s ranked No. 7 overall in my model, with Fairways Gained being the only stat category where he’s outside the Top 10.
Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – We’ve watched Rahm (who’s No. 3 in my model) wrap up the season with of the best values in the “All-around Ranking” in tour history, and he continues to be a presence on the leaderboard in the toughest tournaments. The possibility of a meltdown scares me a bit, but I do think he’s one of the top three to watch.
Rory McIlroy (DK $10,500) – Rory will be in a bunch of my GPPs along with alternating combos of DJ, Morikawa and Webb Simpson, but that approach means I’ll have to roster some punts, which is fine. I’m incredibly excited about the prospect of seeing this man play this course under these conditions, because he could lap the field.
Collin Morikawa (DK $10,000) – The sticker shock could keep some folks off his DFS coattails, and his elite ball-striking could carry him into position on Sunday. He’s going to be tough to fit with some of the other studs, but I’m making it a priority.
Also consider: Justin Thomas (large-field GPP only), Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Webb Simpson
Daniel Berger (DK $9,200) – Berger actually finishes second in my mixed model (Webb is first), and he’s really been playing well since the reopening, when he notched a win at Colonial, added a T2 and a pair of third place finishes.
Tiger Woods (DK $8,600) – It’s a little crazy that Tiger – who knows how to make pars on tough golf courses and grind out Top 10s – isn’t getting more love this week. His 2006 MC at Winged Foot following the death of his father looms large as a narrative, and I’ll be rooting for him.
Patrick Reed (DK $8,500) – On the other end of the feel-good spectrum, we have Reed,who will undoubtedly call upon the Prince of Darkness to keep him out of the rough and summon another U.S. Open Top 15 finish. I don’t know if he can win, but he can contend.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,000) – Fitzpatrick (No. 10 overall in my mixed model this week) is famous for keeping his ball in play and his elite short game, which he’ll need to save par on some of these tough Par 4s. The wispy Englishman finished second on tour in SG: Putting, and while he’s been inconsistent at times, he seems to show up for majors.
Harris English (DK $7,900) – A shoo-in for Comeback Player of the Year, English is elite when it comes to avoiding bogeys and three-putts, he’s Top 15 in both Prox. 200+ and P4: 450-500, and he’s sixth in my overall model. I’ll be at like 50 percent, and he’s my favorite player looming around $8K.
Matthew Wolff (DK $7,700) – What Wolff lacks in experience he makes up for with talent and a flair for the dramatic. I’ll only be using him in my balanced GPP builds and without high expectations, but I like the price and it’s a tournament where the X-factor could come into play.
Also consider: Tony Finau (GPP), Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Paul Casey, Shane Lowry (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Louis Oosthuizen (cash)
Brendan Todd (DK $7,400) – I honestly think Todd could be the best golfer in this price range considering his steady play this past year and his growing confidence at tougher venues. A good bet for a Top 20 and a guy who could surprise on Sunday.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,300) – Poulty finished in the top 10 here in 2006, but my model is unkind to him. I’ll emphasize experience over the data for him, because he’s a survivor – and just the type of golfer I want rounding out some of my GPPs.
Erik Van Rooyen (DK $6,900) – Van Rooyen doesn’t normally get a lot of press, and when he has, he’s disappointed with some less-than-stellar play and some ill-timed MCs. But this might be the spot to roll him out, where his strengths (SG:BS and approaches from 200+ out) will help tremendously.
Chez Reavie (DK $6,800) – I’ve run a few different models emphasizing higher percentages among the stat categories we discussed, and Chez finished among the Top 10 in all of them. He’s a sneaky good player and he won’t be intimidated by the venue or the carnage he sees along the way.
Kevin Streelman (DK $6,700) – Another darling of my models, Streelman’s form has been pedestrian at best lately. But he’s No. 16 overall in my model and I trust his ability to hit fairways, avoid the majority of trouble and post some decent scores.
Mark Hubbard (DK $6,700) – Hubbard is also among the Top 20 in my model this week, and I’ve been impressed by his game in 2020. He’s made the cut in nine of his last ten tournaments and he’s pretty cheap.
More value golfers to consider: Billy Horschel, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Ryan Palmer, Rasmus Hojgaard, Brandon Wu
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (DK $6,500) – His MC at the PGA will keep the masses from rostering him, but this is talented golfer who could easily finish among the Top 25.
Max Homa (DK $6,400) – Homa gets love from my mixed model (No. 14 overall) with solid ball-striking numbers and excellent ranks in avoiding bogeys and navigating long par 4s. He’ll be in 20-25% of my GPPs.
Joel Dahmen (DK $6,400) – Dahmen has the overall game to finish in the Top 20 and he’s done that a lot in 2020. Plus, he’s just too cheap given his upside.
Additional punts: Mike Lorenzo-Vera (GPP), Lanto Griffin (GPP), Robert Macintyre, Romain Langasque, Andy Sullivan
The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 WGC FedEx St.Jude Invitational. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
With the WGC or any other type of no cut event, I never play cash. As the main idea with cash games is to get six golfers into the weekend. There is just too much variance with mainly the best golfers in the world guaranteed to get four days of play.
Jon Rahm $11,400 (M3, 14%)
Justin Thomas $10,700 (M4, 16%)
Patrick Cantlay $10,100 (M26, 13%)
Collin Morikawa $9,500 (M1, 16%)
Xander Schauffele $9,800 (M2, 19%)
Matthew Fitzpatrick $9,000 (M5, 12%)
Daniel Berger $9,600 (M6, 15%)
Tyrell Hatton $9,700 (M10, 15%)
Webb Simpson $9,900 (M13, 15%)
Victor Hovland $9,400 (M14, 15%)
Sergio Garcia $8,000 (M16, 11%)
Gary Woodland $8,600 (M23, 13%)
Hideki Matsuyama $8,900 (M31, 10%)
Rickie Fowler $8,300 (M37, 10%)
Jason Day $8,200 (M38, 7%)
Jordan Spieth $8,100 (M47, 10%)
Corey Conners $7,300 (M15, 10%)
Bubba Watson $7,100 (M18, 10%)
Kevin Na $7,500 (M22, 6%)
Kevin Kisner $7,000 (M45, 6%)
Matt Kuchar $7,600 (M50, 7%)
Danny Willett $7,100 (M54, 4%)
Nick Taylor $6,100 (M20, 3%)
Ryan Palmer $$6,700 (M24, 5%)
C.T. Pan $6,100 (M29, 1%)
Tyler Duncan $6,200 (M39, 2%)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,800 (M40, 4%)
Erik Van Rooyen $6,800 (M42, 5%)
J.T. Poston $6,500 (M48, 2%)
Shane Lowry $6,600 (M49, 5%)
Bernd Wiesberger $6,500 (M53, 3%)
Brandt Snedeker $6,400 (M58, 3%)
I wanted to switch it up for this article since we’re dealing with a no cut, invitation only event. The list above is for my 150 max contest of the week. It’s almost half the field and I do not expect you to run as many players as myself unless you’re going the same route. I’m gonna run through each price tier and add the players to individual contest selections and where I would play them.
9K – Morikawa, Fitpatrick and Xander
8K – Woodland, Matsuyama & Day
7K – Conners & Watson
6k – Taylor
These are guys that I feel can compete at a high level this week with respect to their price range. I did not get into the 10K range, even though there is no cut, I want to try and keep the “floor” as high as possible. I really like Taylor this week and it’s the only reason he’s in this section. If you want to drop him because of his price, by all means.
10K – Rahm or Thomas (Not both)
9K – Hovland and Berger
8K – Garcia
With these four players, add them to the Single Entry mix.
10K – The other player of Rahm and Thomas
9K – Hatton & Simpson
7K – Kuchar
6K – Palmer & Duncan
Add these six players to the SE/3 Max pool.
10K – Cantlay
8K – Fowler & Spieth
7K – Kisner & Willett
6K – Pan, Bezuidenhout, Rooyen, Poston, Lowry, Wiesberger and Snedeker
Finalize the 150 max pool with these golfers. As a general rule of thumb that I follow when “normally” entering 150 max is the higher the golfer is priced, in general you should have more of them in your lineups. For example…
10K Player – 40%
9K Player – 30%
8K Player – 20%
7K Player – 10%
6K Player – 5%
These golfers are priced like they are for a reason (for the most part). Don’t kill good lineups because you have 30% of a 6K player. Could he go off and you’re way up on the competition, sure. There’s a better chance that they sink those lineups instead. This is a no cut, so feel free to get a little more aggressive if you choose, this would be the event for it.
Projected Ownership – FanShareSports
Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Rahm and I’m fading Rory, so you can grab the Over for Rahm, the Under for Rory and make some more money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.
Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2020 3M Open. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!
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