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Welcome to the Week 2 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
With Week 2 now complete one thing is very clear, Ravens fans are not happy!
Let’s dig in to the data!
Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
Thanks to trailing by 21 heading into the fourth quarter on Sunday, Tua Tagovailoa was forced to throw often. That led to monster games from both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. The 19 targets were by far the most that Waddle has ever had in a game, as were the 171 yards receiving. Waddle now has touchdowns in 2 consecutive games to start to the season.
Waddle’s teammate Tyreek Hill also had himself a monster game, finishing with 11 catches and 190 receiving yards on 13 targes. Like Waddle, he found the endzone twice. There are going to be games where Hill gets you almost no fantasy points. That said, there’s no receiver that has the pure upside that he has due to his breakaway speed and ability to get past any secondary in the league. Next weekend will be a much tougher task for the Dolphins as they’ll face off against a Bills defense that has given up only 363 passing yards on the year.
Now on to non-Dolphins receivers! With no Gabe Davis last night, it was the Stefon Diggs show for the Buffalo Bills. And oh what a show it was! Diggs finished with 12 catches on 14 targets and 148 receiving yards and 3 TD. The 148 yards were the most he’s had in a game since Week 10 against the Jets last season.
What a start to the year for Amon-Ra St. Brown! The second year receiver for the Detroit Lions had one of the finest games of his young career this past weekend. He was targeted a team leading 12 times (second straight week with 12 targets) and caught 9 of them for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns. Up next week for St. Brown and the Lions will be the Vikings, a team that has given up close to 600 passing yards on the year.
As you’ll see when we get to the Running Back Touches section, this was a weird week for running backs. Only Austin Ekeler was over 7 targets this weeks as he finished his game with 10 targets. If we compare that to least week, there were 6 running backs that had more than 7 targets. Ekeler was able to catch 9 of his 10 targets for 55 yards.
The first 2 names on this chart are names we often see on this list. Both Zach Ertz and Mark Andrews are favorites of their respective QB’s as both have strong abilities to catch balls thrown their way. Ertz led all Tight Ends this week with 11 targets, finishing with 8 catches and 75 yards. The only negative was that he failed to find the end zone.
Mark Andrews had his first 100-yard game of the young season. He is, by far, Lamar Jackson’s favorite target. In Week 2, Andrews was able to catch 9 of the 11 balls thrown his way for 104 yards and 1 TD. Up next will be a tough matchup with the Patriots, a team that has only given up 37 yards to Tight Ends so far this season through the first 2 weeks.
Justin Herbert threw the ball 46 times this week past week. Nearly a third of those passes were thrown to his backs. While Austin Ekeler saw the bulk of the 15 targets to his backs, both Zander Horvath and Josh Kelly saw action too with 2 targets each. Should Keenan Allen return in Week 3 for the Chargers, I’m sure we’ll see a swing back to more target share to his receivers.
Of Lamar Jackson’s 29 passes this weekend, more than half of them went to his Tight Ends. The combo of Andrews and Isaiah Likely combined for 16 targets this weekend. Likely’s 5 targets were the third most of anyone on the Ravens this weekend.
If you missed what happened in Baltimore this weekend with Tua Tagovailoa, it’s time to put down the book or whatever you were doing and search for some highlights. The Dolphins trailed throughout in this one and it caused Tua to throw often. Tua threw the ball 50 times on Sunday, with more than 70% of those passes going to his receivers. Hill and Waddle accounted for 32 of the 50 targets.
I said it earlier and I’ll say it again, this was a weird weekend for running backs. Out of all the running backs with more than 15 touches this weekend, none finished with more than 90 yards rushing. Nick Chubb was the “best “ of the bunch as he finished with 87 yards on 17 carries. His 5.1 yards per carry were the most of anyone in the top tier of running backs and carries. Not what you want to see in season-long fantasy and DFS.
That said, there were a handful of running backs that did have solid games. They didn’t finish in the top of carries, but Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, and Christian McCaffrey all finished with over 100 yards rushing on 15 carries. Again, rough week for Running Backs.
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.
For the second consecutive week, Chicago went with a run heavy offense. The only difference this week was they did not play in a monsoon. Justin Fields threw the ball just 11 times this weekend against the Packers. I don’t need to state the obvious, but he’s not really an option for fantasy at this point.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Vikings threw the ball 80% of the time last night vs. the Eagles. Trailing from the moment of the coin flip and the run game of Dalvin Cook non-existent, the Vikings were forced to throw often. Of the 56 plays for the Vikings last night, 45 were passes.
Before setting your weekly lineups, make sure to check out our Optimizer.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Week 2 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
With Week 2 now complete one thing is very clear, Ravens fans are not happy!
Let’s dig in to the data!
Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
Thanks to trailing by 21 heading into the fourth quarter on Sunday, Tua Tagovailoa was forced to throw often. That led to monster games from both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. The 19 targets were by far the most that Waddle has ever had in a game, as were the 171 yards receiving. Waddle now has touchdowns in 2 consecutive games to start to the season.
Waddle’s teammate Tyreek Hill also had himself a monster game, finishing with 11 catches and 190 receiving yards on 13 targes. Like Waddle, he found the endzone twice. There are going to be games where Hill gets you almost no fantasy points. That said, there’s no receiver that has the pure upside that he has due to his breakaway speed and ability to get past any secondary in the league. Next weekend will be a much tougher task for the Dolphins as they’ll face off against a Bills defense that has given up only 363 passing yards on the year.
Now on to non-Dolphins receivers! With no Gabe Davis last night, it was the Stefon Diggs show for the Buffalo Bills. And oh what a show it was! Diggs finished with 12 catches on 14 targets and 148 receiving yards and 3 TD. The 148 yards were the most he’s had in a game since Week 10 against the Jets last season.
What a start to the year for Amon-Ra St. Brown! The second year receiver for the Detroit Lions had one of the finest games of his young career this past weekend. He was targeted a team leading 12 times (second straight week with 12 targets) and caught 9 of them for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns. Up next week for St. Brown and the Lions will be the Vikings, a team that has given up close to 600 passing yards on the year.
As you’ll see when we get to the Running Back Touches section, this was a weird week for running backs. Only Austin Ekeler was over 7 targets this weeks as he finished his game with 10 targets. If we compare that to least week, there were 6 running backs that had more than 7 targets. Ekeler was able to catch 9 of his 10 targets for 55 yards.
The first 2 names on this chart are names we often see on this list. Both Zach Ertz and Mark Andrews are favorites of their respective QB’s as both have strong abilities to catch balls thrown their way. Ertz led all Tight Ends this week with 11 targets, finishing with 8 catches and 75 yards. The only negative was that he failed to find the end zone.
Mark Andrews had his first 100-yard game of the young season. He is, by far, Lamar Jackson’s favorite target. In Week 2, Andrews was able to catch 9 of the 11 balls thrown his way for 104 yards and 1 TD. Up next will be a tough matchup with the Patriots, a team that has only given up 37 yards to Tight Ends so far this season through the first 2 weeks.
Justin Herbert threw the ball 46 times this week past week. Nearly a third of those passes were thrown to his backs. While Austin Ekeler saw the bulk of the 15 targets to his backs, both Zander Horvath and Josh Kelly saw action too with 2 targets each. Should Keenan Allen return in Week 3 for the Chargers, I’m sure we’ll see a swing back to more target share to his receivers.
Of Lamar Jackson’s 29 passes this weekend, more than half of them went to his Tight Ends. The combo of Andrews and Isaiah Likely combined for 16 targets this weekend. Likely’s 5 targets were the third most of anyone on the Ravens this weekend.
If you missed what happened in Baltimore this weekend with Tua Tagovailoa, it’s time to put down the book or whatever you were doing and search for some highlights. The Dolphins trailed throughout in this one and it caused Tua to throw often. Tua threw the ball 50 times on Sunday, with more than 70% of those passes going to his receivers. Hill and Waddle accounted for 32 of the 50 targets.
I said it earlier and I’ll say it again, this was a weird weekend for running backs. Out of all the running backs with more than 15 touches this weekend, none finished with more than 90 yards rushing. Nick Chubb was the “best “ of the bunch as he finished with 87 yards on 17 carries. His 5.1 yards per carry were the most of anyone in the top tier of running backs and carries. Not what you want to see in season-long fantasy and DFS.
That said, there were a handful of running backs that did have solid games. They didn’t finish in the top of carries, but Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, and Christian McCaffrey all finished with over 100 yards rushing on 15 carries. Again, rough week for Running Backs.
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.
For the second consecutive week, Chicago went with a run heavy offense. The only difference this week was they did not play in a monsoon. Justin Fields threw the ball just 11 times this weekend against the Packers. I don’t need to state the obvious, but he’s not really an option for fantasy at this point.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Vikings threw the ball 80% of the time last night vs. the Eagles. Trailing from the moment of the coin flip and the run game of Dalvin Cook non-existent, the Vikings were forced to throw often. Of the 56 plays for the Vikings last night, 45 were passes.
Before setting your weekly lineups, make sure to check out our Optimizer.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
I hope each and everyone have a happy, healthy, and profitable new year to come!
Once you’re done reading this article make sure to hop in our expert chat on Discord to stay up to date with lineup discussions because we all know a lot will change from now to kickoff.
Kelce, similar to Mahomes, is still good at football. After a tough stretch, Kelce came back with a chip on his shoulder and came through with a 10 catch 191 yard 2 touchdown walk off performance versus the Chargers. The Bengals have real trouble defending the tight end (reference Mark Andrews box score from last week) and defending the pass in general as they rank 29th in the league. One of the great parts about this matchup is that the Bengals can trade punches as their offense is also one of the best in the league. With not much of a run game from the Chiefs and an over which keeps pushing higher (currently at 51) I want shares/stacks of this game in almost all lineups. I think the highest scoring pairing from this game will be a Mahomes/Kelce stack and it wont be the most popular.
Once again we have the Buccaneers in a great spot against a bad Jets defense. On top of that we are coming off a week where Gronk was a major disappointment in fantasy. Same spot on paper without Evans, Godwin, and Fournette but the ownership will be driven down a bunch after her burned so many people last week. On top of potentially low ownership we also have Antonio Brown hobbled who missed practice the past couple of days. I don’t expect Brown to sit this one out but I do think this is more than just rest. So look to Brady and Gronk to connect early and often as they relive their memories of thrashing the Jets twice a year while they were on the Patriots together. It’s a great bounce back spot for Gronk, who will be the lowest owned piece of this Tampa offense.
Ertz has found a fresh start in Arizona and we are starting to see signs of prime Ertz, as we once saw in Philly. In the last 3 weeks Ertz has been targeted 7, 11, and 13 times. Since Hopkins went down with an injury Ertz has become the number 1 target in this offense. The Dallas defense is good but not great, and regardless this game is going to be high scoring and played at a high pace. With 51.5 points set as the total and the Cowboys the favorite, we can see another 12+ target game here for Ertz and that means fantasy production. He is the safest landing spot for cash and tournaments, if you want a discount off the top tier. Ertz is a real solid play any way you look at it so don’t get fooled by the Cowboys defense. Get some shares of Ertz and don’t look back on Sunday.
Goedert has come on strong since Ertz left town for Arizona with 2 great performances in his last 3 games. Goedert has become Hurts most trusted receiver alongside Smith and a matchup versus Washington should present targets and receptions in order for him to post another strong game. Washington has been getting gashed through the air all season allowing the 30th most passing yards per game at 269. The Cowboys ripped them apart in Week 16 and in a Week 15 Goedert caught 7 balls for 135 yards. Most people will be off Goedert this weekend and I think he’s in a nice leverage spot for tournaments only on Sunday.
I didn’t plan to write up Noah Fant but as I was finishing up the article Jerry Jeudy got ruled out basically leaving two viable pass catchers in Sutton and Fant for Drew Lock to pass to. Fant has been targeted each week and has carried a 9.7 DraftKings fantasy point per game average so the floor is safe at these price levels. Now combine that with the target uptick with Jeudy out and a matchup versus the 31st ranked defense against the tight end and we have solid value on both sites in cash and tournaments. It is tough to find value on this slate and due to the injuries and the upside Fant might be one of the best value plays on the board. Lock will have to try his best to keep up with Herbert and all the Chargers weapons so game script should be in the favor of Fant and the passing game.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 16 DFS Tight Ends article and the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, covering cash games and tournaments, and we will have articles, videos, and podcasts so lock in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last minute news.
Just like that and we are already in NFL Week 16 and the holiday season and a new year is approaching. I do want to say this year has been rough on all of us. With covid and the world flipped upside down I really appreciate each and everyone of you in our community. Trust me when I tell you that we are not some big corporate company sitting on millions of dollars preying and taking advantage of anyone. When I started Win Daily 3 years ago I wanted to give back to the community that I was passionate about. I love to build companies and brands so I thought to myself why not build a brand from what I love to do. After 3 years of building we have a team from all over the world working together to help others when most of us never met in person. We try our best to come together to help each other and we are all doing it because we care about people and we love sports. Besides some big tournament wins we all still have our day jobs and we put in all of our free time into helping the community by writing articles, building models and tools, and talking in the expert chat. I hope everyone sees the effort we all put in and I consider you all my friends. Without a doubt over the past 3 years I cut out a lot of friends in my real life to chat and work with my friends in fantasy. So when I think about the community we all built I don’t only count the wins or losses on a particular slate I count all the good friends and conversations I have because of fantasy. For whoever read my long message I hope you have a happy holiday and fresh and safe start to the new year! And whenever this pandemic truly ends I hope we can finally have our Win Daily meet up in Vegas sometime in 2022
Once you’re done reading this article make sure to hop in our expert chat on Discord to stay up to date with lineup discussions because we all know a lot will change from now to kickoff.
The Buccaneers are at a all time low for their season. Not only did they get shutout but they also loss Fournette, Godwin, and Evans in the process. So it now becomes the Gronk and Brown show in Week 16. Every lineup I make will have 2 out of the 3, between the mentioned above and Ronald Jones. Listen you can easily make a case for Johnson or Miller but with so much value around this week I will be anchoring every lineup I make with at least 1 Buccaneer but in most cases 2. The price never got adjusted and I just don’t see a reason to fade the Bucs. Gronk has been averaging 9 targets with weapons around him the past couple weeks and now will be basically alone alongside Brown. I will be honest the matchup is not great, but the target share, red zone upside, and price makes Gronk a near lock on Sunday on both sites.
The Buccaneers are at an all time low for their season. Not only did they get shutout, but they also loss Fournette, Godwin, and Evans in the process. So it now becomes the Gronk and Brown show in Week 16. Every lineup I make will have 2 out of the 3, between the mentioned above and Ronald Jones. Listen you can easily make a case for Johnson or Miller but with so much value around this week I will be anchoring every lineup I make with at least 1 Buccaneer but in most cases 2. The price never got adjusted and I just don’t see a reason to fade the Bucs. Gronk has been averaging 9 targets with weapons around him the past couple weeks and now will be basically alone alongside Brown. I will be honest the matchup is not great, but the target share, red zone upside, and price makes Gronk a near lock on Sunday on both sites.
I love to lock in tight ends who are truly the 1st option in the receiving game of their respective offense. Goedert should be a nice pivot off the possible chalk mentioned above. If he can continue the trend of 100 yards receiving for a 3rd straight week the leverage you gain and the slight discount can bring rewards to your lineup. The matchup is good versus the Giants who rank 19th against tight ends and with Jalen stepping up in the passing game the stack could pay dividends. The only Jalen stacks I am willing to trot out there are with Goeddert. The Eagles are projected to score 25+ in this game and we can only hope one of the touchdowns will come through the air and land in Goeddert’s hands.
The hype was high on Pat but after recent down games the ownership has dwindled down to nothing. We do need him to clear concussion protocol so as long as he does so I like the price in a up paced matchup versus the Chiefs. Pitt is The hype was high on Pat but after recent down games the ownership has dwindled down to nothing. We do need him to clear concussion protocol so as long as he does so I like the price in an up paced matchup versus the Chiefs. Pitt is fighting to stay in the playoff hunt and they will have to throw the ball a ton to defeat the Chiefs rather or not if they are at full strength. If you combine the 6 touchdowns Pat has scored in the last 7 games with a lot of garbage time and an aerial attack from the Pittsburgh offense Freiermuth should crush value in a very low owned spot. With the way roster construction is shaping up most people will choose value running backs and some value wide receivers which will force their hand to pay up at tight end. Thus leaving Pat in a nice low owned spot to be a different maker in your lineups on Sunday. Pat has been ruled out. I honestly want to lock in with Gronk and Andrews but if you need another guy for your multi entry maybe look to Hunter Henry or Cole Kmet.
Will I be loading up on Pitts? the answer is no. But in tournaments I am not going to go all in on 1-2 tight ends. So to Will I be loading up on Pitts? The answer is no. But in tournaments I am not going to go all in on 1-2 tight ends. So to extend the player pool we need to fight guys who have upside at low ownerships. The price on Pitts has finally come down to the point where I will be taking some shots in a matchup which should have the Falcons scoring some points. The targets have always been there for Pitts and that is not going to change in Week 16. Pitts and the Falcons in general are just not scoring enough points. Pitts only has one touchdown on the year and let’s hope he catches his second on Sunday. As we saw the last couple of weeks, the floor is there with Pitts. All we need is the upside 100 yard 1 touchdown game to come for him to pay off.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 16 DFS Tight Ends article and the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, covering cash games and tournaments, and we will have articles, videos, and podcasts so lock in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last minute news.
The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 10 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Oh, boy. We’ve finally gotten to an outrageous price point for our chalk captain, and on DK, the electric Lamar Jackson has eclipsed $20K. And when you consider that his passing yardage and rushing yardage props combine for right about 300 yards, it doesn’t seem all that silly. Jackson is actually from right nearby, in Pompano Beach. It’s only about a 35-minute drive away from Hard Rock Stadium, unless you get caught with faulty GPS in a less-than-desirable section of that city in a sketchy trailer park, which happened to me once. Most frightened I’ve ever been in my life. Anyway, we can find ways to get to Lamar at CPT, but there are some pivots to consider once we recognize that the Ravens don’t actually shut anybody down defensively.
Ravens notes: It probably won’t be the narrative we’ve seen a couple times before this season, where the Ravens need to come back from multiple TDs to notch a win, but I could see the offense starting off without a bang — giving the Dolphins (and their 26th worst defense against opposing fantasy RBs) healthy doses of DeVonta Freeman, who’s coming off his best game of 2021. Freeman is a good value and with Latavius Murray doubtful, we could see Le’Veon Bell get some carries as well. The receiving options have expanded as well, and while Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown are the two most obvious options, we have a healthy Rashod Bateman, a resurgent Devin Duvernay coming off a big Week 9, and god old Sammy Watkins, who’s expected to play. Bateman’s eight targets against the Vikings could be a sign of bigger things to come, so he’s the priority after Andrews and Brown. Of course, the Ravens DST and Justin Tucker are worth mixing into your builds as well.
Dolphins notes: We’re still not sure who’s starting at QB for the Dolphins, but that’s baked into the pricing because they’re not that far apart. I don’t have much interest in Tua Tagovailoa if he starts, but the minimal discount on Jacoby Brissett could mean I’ll use him in 2-3 out of 10 GPP builds. Myles Gaskin could see a few extra targets in the passing game, and while the Ravens run defense isn’t great, the Dolphins have had a rough time making holes for Gaskin in a traditional offensive sense. For that reason, I’m most enamored by the possibilities that exist with Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle, both dynamic players who can rack up catches and yardage. Remaining options include Mack Hollins and my favorite cheap option tonight — WR Preston Williams, who’s just $200 as a flex play and could be worth a look at captain in some contrarian builds — just like I planned for Jimmy Graham on MNF before the football gods yanked away my shot at glory.
Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Neglect Preston Williams. His price tag allows for lots of stacked builds and a shot at rostering Lamar with some other high-upside plays.
Now that we’ve established some Week 10 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 9 action!
Just like that and we are already in NFL Week 10. We have had a good run on tight ends and hope to continue providing value each week in my NFL DFS Tight Ends article. Tight ends are sometimes forgotten and left to the last pick in your lineup and that can easily leave you with an outcome of 0-2 points. This could be devastating for your chances of a takedown or simply cashing. Each week I will lay out my favorite options up top and the best value plays on the board as well. Once you’re done reading this article make sure to hop in our expert chat on Discord to stay up to date with lineup discussions.
It’s slim pickings in the tight end pool in Week 10. The goal is to avoid land mines and simply find ways to hit value in different price tiers. I am typically the most optimistic person in the room but it’s truly bad out here and I’m simply looking for safe floors to land on. Pitts has been up and down all season but lands with a great matchup in Week 10. The Cowboys rank 22nd against opposing tight ends and are currently allowing 270 passing yards per game. Pitts will be popular for various reasons. He is the highest priced tight end and is involved in the highest projected scoring game as well. With the over under set for 55 in this matchup versus the Cowboys, we should be a high paced affair with game script in the favor of the passing attack for the Falcons. Pitts has received 40 targets in the past 5 games and has exceeded over 20+ points in 2 of the 5 games. The upside is there along with the floor, so I will have a solid amount of Pitts in Week 10.
As stated above, this game is the highest scoring game on the slate as per Vegas. Similar to Pitts, the floor is set with Schultz and the consistency has been there all season. Dalton has averaged 12 fantasy points per game and I will be content with an average game from him in Week 10. With that being said, the matchup against the Falcons is one I always like to pick on. The Falcons defense is allowing 26 points per game and they rank 17th against opposing tight ends. Both these metrics should lead to another double digit performance for Schultz and if this game stays close through 4 quarters we should see a ceiling game out of him and the passing attack of the Cowboys.
This dude can ball and he has emerged as one of, if not the favorite targets of Big Ben. Freiermuth catches everything thrown his way and is starting to rack up the red zone looks. With 3 touchdowns in the past 2 games and double digit fantasy point performances in all 3 games, he is starting to cement himself as one of the better tight ends in the game. The Lions are ranked 12th against opposing tight ends and are allowing 29 points per game, which is the second highest in the league. This should be an up pace game for the Steelers, which are coming off of 5 tough matchups over the past month. We should see an outburst from Ben and Pat in Week 10, and I prefer the discount at the tight end position with most of the top tier tight ends not on the main slate.
Jared Cook is a tournament only play for me at the tight end position. The targets for Cook are a tier below the 3 tight ends mentioned above and Cook is the 3rd to 4th option on his team. The price is right on Cook and the game is also the second highest on the slate with a projected total of 53 points. The Vikings are a middle of the pack defense and both these teams are typically involved in high scoring affairs. The hope for Cook in this one is a couple extra looks and for him to find his way into the end zone. I prefer Freiermuth, but may look to grab a couple shares of Cook in Week 10 at lower ownership.
If we need value on the slate at lower ownership, we can look to Conklin in a nice matchup versus the Charger secondary and linebackers which are really struggling this year. The Chargers currently rank 28th against opposing tight ends. Targets are beginning to funnel to Conklin which provides a nice floor at this price tag in tournaments. Conklin has received 28 targets over the past 5 games which is not too far behind both Thielen and Jefferson. He is a DraftKings only play for me in tournaments only when you need the salary savings to pay up at other spots. So if you need the savings in Week 10 look to Conklin in tournaments.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 10 DFS Tight Ends article and the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, covering cash games and tournaments, and we will have articles, videos, and podcasts so lock in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last minute news.
Just like that and we are already in NFL Week 9. We have had a good run on tight ends and hope to continue providing value each week in my NFL DFS Tight Ends article. Tight ends are sometimes forgotten and left to the last pick in your lineup and that can easily leave you with an outcome of 0-2 points. This could be devastating for your chances of a takedown or simply cashing. Each week I will lay out my favorite options up top and the best value plays on the board as well. Once you’re done reading this article make sure to hop in our expert chat on Discord to stay up to date with lineup discussions.
The emotions of fantasy football are getting the best of the industry. Through the first 3 weeks of the season, if you faded Kelce you were mocked. During the last 2 weeks, I have heard everything from Kelce is washed to the Chiefs should engage in trade talks for Kelce and Hill. That means Kelce will most likely be low owned in Week 9 and I will buy low on him. We got a depressed price tag combined with an opening total of 54.5 points versus the Packers. The line has swung dramatically with the news of Rodgers being out. The over has dropped by 6 and the Chiefs are now 8 point favorites. This should be a get right spot for Kelce, who is still receiving the targets and it’s only a matter of time until the production returns. Kelce has received 40 targets the past 4 weeks which hasn’t led to his usual fantasy output but I will be removing the recent results when molding my lineups. He is a fine one off, but I will get most of my shares of Kelce when pairing him with Mahomes in Week 9.
As long as Waller is a full go this week in practices I will get some shares of him in Week 9. With two weeks off, I’m hoping Waller is back to full strength. Combine that with more targets to go around with the unfortunate incident with Ruggs, and we should see a nice output from Waller this Sunday. The Giants are middle of the pack at defending the tight end, and in total defense. The Raiders are projected to score 24.5 points on Sunday and with not much of a run game, Waller should be involved through 4 quarters. Waller is averaging close to 9 targets per game and only 5.5 receptions. The connection from Carr to Waller should become more efficient and while fantasy players have forgotten about him it’s the time to take some shots in tournaments.
Gesicki has been a great season long tight end draft pick to start this season. He has been consistently productive every week and provides stability at a position which can leave you frustrated. Gesicki has averaged 13 points per game and has become one of Tua’s favorite targets. Just like Kelce and Waller, Gesicki is a wide receiver playing the role of a tight end. Gesicki has an upside matchup this week against Houston who currently ranks 29th against opposing tight ends and are allowing the 30th worst 401 total yards per game. The targets are there each week and the production will continue to be there for Gesicki. If you can’t afford Kelce or Waller, Gesicki is the first name I will roster on DraftKings, but on FanDuel I will take the upside in Waller.
Goedert just happens to be the most consistent receiver in the Eagles offense. Through the blowout last week of the Lions, Goedert was the only pass catcher who hit value. This game shouldn’t be lopsided and if the game script goes as Vegas has planned the Eagles should be trailing in this one. Since Ertz has been traded, Goedert has had back to back double digit fantasy point performances. This matchup will be the best opportunity for Goedert to reach for new highs since the departure of Ertz. The Chargers rank 30th against opposing tight ends and we have one of the highest game totals of the entire slate sitting at 50 points. When taking into account the matchup and the high total, Goedert will be heavily involved through 4 quarters, leading to a ceiling game in Week 9.
If we need value on the slate, we can look to Conklin in a nice matchup versus the Baltimore secondary and linebackers which are really struggling this year. Baltimore currently ranks 31st against opposing tight ends and is allowing a league worst 296.1 passing yards per game. Targets are beginning to funnel to Conklin which provides a nice floor at this price tag in tournaments. Conklin has received 29 targets over the past 5 games which is not too far behind both Thielen and Jefferson. He is a DraftKings only play for me in tournaments only when you need the salary savings to pay up at other spots. So if you need the savings in Week 9 look to Conklin in tournaments.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 9 DFS Tight Ends article and the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, covering cash games and tournaments, and we will have articles, videos, and podcasts so lock in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last minute news.
Just like that and we are already in NFL Week 8. We have had a good run on tight ends and hope to continue providing value each week in my NFL DFS Tight Ends article. Tight ends are sometimes forgotten and left to the last pick in your lineup and that can easily leave you with an outcome of 0-2 points. This could be devastating for your chances of a takedown or simply cashing. Each week I will lay out my favorite options up top and the best value plays on the board as well. Once you’re done reading this article make sure to hop in our expert chat on Discord to stay up to date with lineup discussions.
It hasn’t taken long for Pitts to emerge as the #1 receiver in Atlanta and one of the best tight ends in the NFL. With each week that passes, Pitts is getting better and better. Carolina is middle of the pack against covering opposing tight ends but each week their defense has started to slip further down the list. In the past 4 games they lost, they have allowed 36, 21, 24, and 25 points after starting the season 3-0. The 3-0 start was more of a mirage while facing the Jets, Saints, and the Texans. This defense is attackable and Pitts is coming off of 3 weeks of increased targets, averaging 9 targets per game. Not only is Pitts getting targeted, he is racking up yardage with 2 back to back 100 yard receiving games. At a fair price on both sites Pitts is our highest projected tight end in both our projection model and optimizer projections for good reason. We have a nice total of 46 which is on the higher side of the slate and we have the Falcons projected at 24.5 points per Vegas. Lock in Pitts in both cash games and tournaments.
The Eagles secondary instills zero fear in me and I can see the Lions winning this game outright. This game has game stack potential and I love Swift and Hockenson from the Lions side. Hockenson is dealing with some knee and ankle injuries which has me slightly concerned but he has gutted it out each week without missing time. Please confirm prior to locking him Sunday, and make sure these injuries don’t take a turn for the worse. Hockenson has had a respectable start to the season through 7 games. He has averaged 51 yards receiving and 12.6 fantasy points per game and looks to build off that in a juicy matchup versus the Eagles. The matchup is ideal as the Eagles rank 24th against opposing tight ends and I expect this game to have some fireworks at a lower ownership of some of the higher profile games. I prefer paying up for Pitts in cash, but I will invest in some shares of Hockenson in tournaments in NFL Week 8.
Nobody likes playing Broncos and every week Fant and Sutton are under owned and continue to perform regardless of the health and skill level of Teddy Bridgewater. This Washington defense is a shell of what it was last year and is currently allowing a league worse 300.6 passing yards per game. On top of that they currently rank 20th against opposing tight ends and that sets up well with Fant. Fant has average 12 fantasy points per game while only hauling in 3 touchdowns so if the touchdowns start falling Fant’s way we can see a nice uptick in production. Fant and the Broncos are coming off 4 straight weeks of difficult matchups and this is the first week in recent memory that Vegas has this team projected to score more than 24 points. With Jeudy looking like he has a chance to play in Week 8, I am not ready to go all in on Fant. Fant is a tournament play only for me and I will sprinkle in some shares to avoid some of the possible chalk at the position.
With Ertz out of town, Goedert steps into the primary tight end role and should no longer fight for targets with Ertz. He hasn’t had his breakout week due to the instability of this offense and the passing game in general. This Eagles team is a mess right now and the whole city of Philly including our guy Jon Jansen are back and forth crying about what team they hate more between the Eagles and 76ers. As a New Yorker I love to see it! But lets get back to football and why Goedert may be in line for his breakout game. I’m expecting this game to provide some fireworks and I want my shares of both offenses. I will have my game stacks, and will be riding Hurts and Goedert combinations along with Goff, Swift, and Hockenson. I think we shoot over the 48 point total Vegas has set and with no real consistent run game from either side I see a back and forth up paced game. At his price tag, Goedert is safe for both cash games and tournaments in NFL Week 8.
If we need value on the slate, we can look to Arnold in a nice matchup versus the Seattle secondary which is really struggling this year. I think Vegas has this game wrong with only putting a 43.5 total on the game. I haven’t bet it yet, but once I talk to my guys at the Sharp App, I will lock it in. Remember you can download the Sharp App for free and get access to all of our sports betting pros. The Seahawks are allowing 280 passing yards per game and are ranked 17th against opposing tight ends. Arnold is tied for target share over the past 2 weeks with Shenault and is just getting out targeted by Jones Jr. With the matchup slightly better for Arnold over the receiving core, we can see a uptick in targets which would lead to even more fantasy production. So if you need the savings in Week 8 look to Arnold in tournaments.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 8 DFS Tight Ends article and the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, covering cash games and tournaments, and we will have articles, videos, and podcasts so lock in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last minute news.
Just like that and we are already in NFL Week 7. We have had a good run on tight ends and hope to continue providing value each week in my NFL DFS Tight Ends article. Tight ends are sometimes forgotten and left to the last pick in your lineup and that can easily leave you with an outcome of 0-2 points. This could be devastating for your chances of a takedown or simply cashing. Each week I will lay out my favorite options up top and the best value plays on the board as well. Once you’re done reading this article make sure to hop in our expert chat on Discord to stay up to date with lineup discussions.
This is a pay up week for tight ends. The low end is dicey and with the 3 expensive tight ends being in great spots, I don’t want to take to many shots on cheap tight ends. I can see 3 top end tight ends put up 20+ points in Week 7, so lets start with the best one in Kelce. The over in this game has pushed up to 57.5 and has been climbing since the week started. The Chiefs are in a great spot and are projected to put up 31.5 points. Listen we know how good this offense is and the Titans defense can be exposed through the passing game. The Titans are allowing 276 passing yards and 384 total yards per game. Looking back at the past 3 games the Titans have allowed 31, 19, and even 27 points to the Jets. Kelce has somewhat disappointed us the past 3 weeks putting up 6, 17, and 17 which I hope that bring downs his ownership. It’s still early as I’m writing this on Wednesday morning, but he is currently sitting at only 14% ownership which is a nice number to get Kelce at. I will be locking in shares of each of the tight ends listed in this article and I will be over the field in Week 7 on Kelce.
The Eagles secondary instills zero fear in me and probably less in Waller’s mind. Waller has been rather stagnant since his Week 1 outburst of 29.5 points. People have long forgotten about Waller and we may see sub 10% ownership on him in Week 7. Waller finds a great spot against the Eagles who currently rank 22nd versus the tight end position. The Eagles defense has shown strives but they have been exposed by the Bucs, Chiefs, and the Cowboys and I believe Carr and Waller are playing inspired ball since the departure of Gruden. Waller is currently sitting as the second highest projected player in our optimizer projections and I will take the discount on Kelce in spots. For every 2 shares of Kelce, I will have one share of Waller in Week 7.
Mark Andrews is coming off a monster Week 5 and nice performance in Week 6 as well. Andrews had 11 receptions on 13 targets and rumbled for 147 yards receiving with 2 touchdowns in Week 5 and followed that up with a 17 point performance in Week 6. We have a total of 47 with Baltimore favored by 6, so this game should be high scoring and close through 4 quarters if Vegas has this game projected correctly. After what the Ravens did to the Chargers last week I do have some concern that the Bengals won’t be able to keep pace in this one but the price tag is still very affordable on Andrews. The discount is large, the floor is safe, and the upside is still there where Andrews is a solid play for cash and still warrants attention for tournaments. My ownership will be spread across the top 3 tight ends I just mentioned and just like Waller, I will have 1 share of Andrews for every 2 shares of Kelce.
With Ertz out of town, Goedert steps into the primary tight end role and should no longer fight for targets with Ertz. His price tag has dropped after being out a week due to Covid-19, but this is a great landing spot to buy shares of Goedert in Week 7. This should be a great spot for him against the Raiders who currently rank 24th against opposing tight ends. This game has a over of 49 and I believe the game shoots over 50 points in a back and forth game for four quarters. I’m expecting a lot of passing as both these teams don’t really run the ball well which should keep the pace up for 4 quarters. As long as all the practice reports seem positive throughout the week, I love Goedert and his price tag in Week 7.
I loaded up last week on Ricky and I’m ready to go back to the well in Week 7. With Logan Thomas out and a good matchup versus the Packers, Seals-Jones could bring solid value to our DFS lineups again. Ricky played 82 out of the 83 snaps in Week 5 and hauled in 4 receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown in Week 6. The Packers passing defense has been good, but if they have a weakness in the passing game its through the tight end position. The Packers defense has yet to face too many solid passing attacks, and I’m not saying that Washington is one of them but at this price tag we don’t need much. The Packers should take a lead, which will have Washington playing from behind and forcing them to air it out to keep pace. Ricky is a tournament only play which could pay off nicely in Week 7.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 7 DFS Tight Ends article and the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, covering cash games and tournaments, and we will have articles, videos, and podcasts so lock in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our YouTube page and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last minute news.
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