Happy Thursday my NBA DFS friends – after a 10 game slate where we saw the OKC value chalk drive DFS scores, we come back to a more manageable 5 game slate and one where we could see a ton of injury news open up chalk-tastic value.
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We only have 10 teams in our NBA DFS player pool on Thursday but we have a ton of high-end player injury news on the tail end of back to backs for a handful of teams that could drive some serious value our way – and frankly, that will dictate how this slate is built.
Damian Lillard is questionable and we have Kristaps Porzingis/Victor Olapido unlikely to play on the B2B. To have that much star power potentially on the bench, it is going to open up a massive amount of value that will make it easier to pay for our studs.
Also, if Dame does sit – how will that impact the stars in Philadelphia with their own B2B set tonight?
Luka Doncic ($10.9K) becomes arguably the top star to pay for on the slate when/if we get confirmation that KP is managing his load. We have a massive data set to pull from in this case where Luka has a near 40% usage rate over the last two seasons in 1400 minutes when Porzingis is out and you get the added boost of a match-up against a Warriors squad playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA this season.
Now the last two games that KP has sat, Luka has actually been more floor than ceiling – with 49 and 45 DK points against the Suns and Rockets – DFS outputs that frankly would be a massive disappointment if you are paying a near $11K premium. However, take that data set back to the four previous games KP missed and you see the demonstrated ceiling – 57, 59, 72, and 79 DK points.
In the 10 games that Porzingis has missed this year, it is interesting to note that Luka has been held under 50 DK points in 6 of the 10 so the simplistic logic of KP out equals Luka lock, really has not been the case.
The flip side here is that we have to look at Luka and these stars in the context of the slate. First and foremost, if we get the value that we expect – that value dictates that we have the salary flexibility to afford Luka. Secondly, that 70-80 DK point ceiling that Luka has shown this year – that is the kind of raw point ceiling you simply need to have on a short slate.
In this same game, we get a National TV match-up with Luka versus Steph Curry ($9.8K).
Curry is the entirety of the Warriors offense this year and he gets to take the stage tonight against a Dallas team that is giving up the 3rd highest opponent 3P% over the last 10 games at 40.4%. No player in the NBA is putting up more 3PA per game than Chef Curry this season – so let’s see, national TV with a high volume three-point shooter against a team that cannot defend it – hello ceiling game!
The final superstar in this top tier that I would consider is Nikola Jokic ($11K).
Now the recent history against the Lakers is not going to be a strong selling point as he has been held under 40 DK points in 3 of his 4 meetings against the Lakers the last two seasons with a 53 DK point outing being his “ceiling.”
However, much like with Luka – I think the slate will dictate how The Joker becomes a priority. From a raw points perspective, it is hard to argue with a player who has gone for 60+ in 7 of his last 10 games and eclipsed 70 DK points in two of those meetings (both against Utah).
I am a firm believer in raw points being a priority on small slates like this and if the value is there to jam in the stars – I think you are almost forced into outlining this path.
A Luka-Curry-Joker build is going to leave you around $3.7K per player for the rest of your build – a spot that becomes quite doable IF the injury news breaks as we are hoping. You are also anchoring to a three-man core that has a legitimate chance to get you 200 DK points on their own. The question then becomes can you get 100-150 DK points from the “Scrub 5” – or 20-30 DK points per player to make this a winnable NBA DFS build?
The starting point for value tonight is going to be in Portland – if we get the news that Damian Lillard will sit. This is the path in my mind where taking the obvious value and pairing it with the high-priced stars like Luka/Joker becomes a core building block.
Portland is already without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, will be without Nassir Little tonight and Derrick Jones Jr. is questionable. With that crew out last game, Portland played an 8 man rotation – which included Dame for nearly 40 minutes of court time – take him off, and sheesh – it is value city.
Rodney Hood ($3.7K) received the start last game with Litte/DJJ out and played 35 minutes, shot the ball 12 time and racked up 22 DK points which puts him right at 6x value since his priced moved all of $200. If Jones Jr. is out again – Hood becomes an easy plug and play value.
The big winner if Dame were to sit would be Anfernee Simons ($4.6K) who would get the start at PG and get all the run he could handle against the Sixers. We have seen Simons start a hand full of times the last two years and he has put up 25-26 DK points in those stars but here is a big difference – those spot starts have always come in place of one of Dame/CJ. Tonight it would be a potential start with BOTH stars out – the ceiling would simply be too high for us to pass on tonight if Dame is out and he would be a lock button mid-range value.
Lastly – and my man Adam Strangis nailed this in his Cash Game Breakdown ($) today – is the role Juan Toscano Anderson ($3.5K) will play now with both Kevon Looney AND James Wiseman sidelined. As Adam pointed out “JTA was the direct sub for Looney and played 18 of the 26 possible minutes after Looney left the game with an injury.”
One additional play from Golden State that could give us elite value is Kent Bazemore ($3.3K). Similar to JTA – Bazemore played 12 of the second half 24 minutes with Looney sidelined and actually closed the 4th alongside JTA, Curry, Wiggins and Draymond.
If you are following along – here is what we got kids.
Lock in Luka, Joker and Chef Curry. The click in the values that would/could have starters minutes path tonight – and you still have around $3.5K per player for those last two spots.
When the value is this obvious – I do not try and get cute – I play the value that allows me to get the high ceiling stars that win you the slate. Every. Single. Time.
Stars. Scrubs.
Rinse. Repeat.
This slate has the potential to be very clear and obviously it is injury dependent – the path opens up early here for this kind of build that has massive GPP appeal.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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This week’s Collector’s Corner takes a look at what 2018 NBA rookie trading cards – beyond Luka and Trae – could have some lasting value down the road.
The meteoric rise of 2019-20 NBA trading card products because of the historically talented rookie class is well known – with generational superstars like Rookie of the Year Ja Morant and 20-year-old sensation Zion Williamson already doing special things on the court, and names like Tyler Herro, R.J. Barrett, Brandon Clarke and P.J. Washington (to name just a few) flashing some transcendent ability on the hardwood. But the 2018-19 rookie crop has some real gems beyond Luka Doncic – possibly the best young player in the league since LeBron James – and Trae Young, a sharpshooting combo guard sniper who can score on a level with Stephon Curry and some of the league’s best.
Doncic and Young cards make buying 2018-19 NBA products an expensive endeavor and finding their rookie trading cards at affordable prices is already pretty difficult. But what about some of the other players from that class who’ve yet to see their games fully emerge into the consciousness of collectors? In this edition of Collector’s Corner, we’ll give you some players from the 2018-19 draft class who make for excellent investments as they prepare to take the next step in the NBA showcase.
Note: I’ll continue to use my DFS-derived Cash-GPP-Punt terminology to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.
A do-it-all guard with the size to create constant mismatches and handle the pick-and-roll with the best of them, SGA was the centerpiece of the Paul George trade and is probably the player most likely to join Luka and Trae in the stratosphere of NBA superstardom. The Thunder are just 6-7 to start the season but have a bright future – thanks to SGA and a new head coach (Mark Daigneault) who’s honest about the mistakes he sees his players make, and how they need to improve.
You can pick up some of SGA’s rookie trading cards (like this 2018-19 Panini Optic Rated Rookie #162) for a fraction of what Luka and Trae cost. He’s not guaranteed to reach their level right away, but he may be a better all-around player than Young because of his size and should be money in the bank a couple years down the road.
Ayton still need to learn to stop fouling people, but it’s obvious he can manhandle dudes in the post – like he did up-and-comer Christian Wood on Wednesday night in Houston. He’s a beast at both ends of the floor, and the Suns are building a supporting cast that can take some of the pressure off the two-headed Ayton-Booker monster that still fared pretty well in 2019-20.
I’ve talked about how much I like Ayton before – he’s the centerpiece of my 2018-19 basketball collection thus far – but the big man just keeps drawing positive reviews and is in a great spot to return major trading card value in a few years. If you think SGA is still pretty cheap, you should see what the same card (2018-19 Optic base) is selling for. A PSA 9 at $25 could easily return a 400% profit in two or three seasons.
If you’re a DFS junkie and you’ve seen Porter Jr. get into a groove on the court and smash value, you probably know how excellent an investment in his rookie trading cards can be. But he’s blocked a bit from producing at an elite level at the moment and there is a lot of uncertainty about whether or not he can do enough to make the Nuggets a contender in 2020-21 – so you can still find some good deals on his rookies.
Even when he was drafted, there were concerns about how many minutes Porter would be playing in the NBA; he played just 53 minutes of his freshman season in college as a result of back surgery, and a hip issue in the leadup to the draft added more concern about his body. MPJ has now been out since Dec. 29 after testing positive for COVID-19, but he’s nearing a return and was averaging nearly 20 points, seven rebounds, one steal and 1.5 blocks prior to his quarantine period.
We don’t have any recent on-court performance to look at with Triple-J, but he looked like a star in three bubble games with averages of 25.3 points, 3.3 triples and 1.7 blocks, and he reportedly grew a couple inches (I know, I know) since the last time he’s taken the court – if Dillon Brooks is to be believed. Still – it’s not unrealistic that the 6-11 (pre-COVID-19) Memphis big man has crested the 7-foot mark as he recovers from meniscus surgery.
JJJ should make for a wonderful complement to the scoring and distribution of Ja Morant, and he’s a floor-stretching 4-slash-5 who can knock down three-pointers, crash the boards and send back that weak stuff like a two-way unicorn. His high-level trading cards could definitely be worth the investment, especially if you can find some raw examples that look like they could 10.
When he was drafted, Bridges drew comparisons to Klay Thompson, and he’s been a solid producer on the new-look Suns. His stuff is cheap, and even the rookie trading cards with parallels within reach. There’s a lot of good young players in Phoenix, and who stays and who goes in the next few years due to salary cap decisions makes the whole situation a bit uncertain, but he’s a talented player with monster upside.
I’m very much on the fence about Mo Bamba, and as the NYT pointed out when he was drafted – it’s hard to find “two people to agree on what Bamba’s ceiling is, or how likely he is to reach it.” That NYT goes on to talk about how Bamba broke the NBA combine record for wingspan measurement – reaching an absurd 7 feet 10 inches – and how his standing reach was a full three inches taller than any player measured at the combine. You don’t have to buy with much trepidation – because his stuff is super cheap.
The Former No. 7 draftee from Duke had expectations through the roof, and has been a fantasy bust so far. But while he’s been lacking defensively and took a step back in 2019, new Bulls HC Billy Donovan has the team headed in the right direction. Carter, Jr. could have a good season coming and might be investing in. His Silver Prizm rookie card (even in a PSA 10) can be had for relative peanuts.
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