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Los Angeles Clippers

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Western Conference Round 1

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoffs are officially under way! Yes, the Play-In tournament got us kicked off a few days ago. But the conventional one through eight matchups began last night. The Western Conference matchups are much more even than those in the Eastern Conference. Moreover, many NBA Championship contenders are featured in this one.

With the NBA Play-In tournament now over, here is the updated bracket for the Western Conference:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. As previously mentioned, rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors are all discussed. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Denver Nuggets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Denver Nuggets (-500 to win series)

Introduction

After an opening round loss to the eventual NBA Champions last season, the Nuggets stormed out of the gate this year and never looked back. Nikola Jokic averaged a near triple-double while leading his team to the #1 seed in a competitive Western Conference. One can only hope the injury woes of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are behind them for what should be a deep playoff run.

Matchup

Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, Minnesota still ranked 17th in points allowed in the paint per game and a disastrous 27th in rebounding. Thus, the matchup bodes well for MVP candidate, Nikola Jokic. Elsewhere, Jamal Murray will look to get the best of veteran Mike Conley on the perimeter, while the best statistical matchup is for Michael Porter Jr., who will see a ton of Anthony Edwards.

Rotation

The back-to-back NBA MVP will be a staple point in this offensive flow. Moreover, Jamal Murray looks healthy and is poised for a big role on what hopes to be a lengthy playoff run. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon flank the wings, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope plays the role of spot-up shooter from behind the arc. Elsewhere, Bruce Brown is a versatile player in this rotation, while Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, and veterans Reggie Jackson and Jeff Green round out the rotation.

X-Factor

Aside from the duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon is the x-factor to this series for Denver. A matchup looms against Karl-Anthony Towns, and other wings in smaller Minnesota lineups, such as Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince. However, Gordon will have to get his offensive game going early and often. Jokic will surely be double-teamed on nearly every possession, and there is only so many shots for Jamal Murray to take. Gordon’s versatility outweighs the inconsistency of Michael Porter Jr., making the former of more impact than the latter.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+375 to win series)

Introduction

The Minnesota overhaul was a disaster. Rudy Gobert was acquired in the offseason for far too many assets, and it simply has not worked out. This offense is stagnant, relying on Anthony Edwards in isolation far too often. Meanwhile, the defensive unit has been mediocre at best. Despite making it through Oklahoma City in the Play-In, there is little to like about this roster heading into the opening round.

Matchup

Despite making it through the Play-In tournament, things don’t get any easier for Minnesota. The Nuggets have a good roster when everyone is healthy, and this team looks to be in its best form after the regular season they had. However, there is an opportunity to Minnesota to take advantage on the perimeter. The issue is trusting the likes of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns regularly, let alone the rest of this rotation.

Rotation

Expect to see as much Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as you ever have in these NBA Playoffs. Moreover, Rudy Gobert will anchor the paint in a matchup versus Nikola Jokic and Mike Conley will run point. Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince will play impactful minutes, whether in the starting lineup or off the bench. Nickeil Alexander-Walker earned a starting spot in the final game of the Play-In, while Jordan McLaughlin will check in off the bench, only if necessary.

X-Factor

Both Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley will be of extreme importance to Minnesota in this series. However, the latter gets the nod as the x-factor with his role on both ends of the floor. Not only will Conley have to keep Jamal Murray at bay, but he will need to attack on the other side. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards will lead the team in usage rate, but Conley needs to be efficient in his time on the court if the Timberwolves stand a chance.

Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

Memphis Grizzlies (-140 to win series)

Introduction

After a disappointing exit to the eventual NBA Champions last season, Memphis is back on the big stage. It does not come without concern though, as Steven Adams missing the postseason is a huge hole to fill. However, Jaren Jackson Jr. is a Defensive Player of the Year finalist and needs to prove he can handle a matchup against Anthony Davis in this series. Ja Morant leads the charge for a team that will certainly face adversity from the get-go.

Matchup

A matchup versus the Lakers gives Ja Morant the best chance to take over a series. While Austin Reaves is a quality defender, the Lakers finished the season 29th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers and 28th versus crafty finishers at the position. However, the true mismatch lies in the paint. Memphis takes a huge hit on the glass and in interior defense with Steven Adams ruled out. Thus, hoping that Jaren Jackson Jr. is not only up to the task, but that he’s able to stay out of foul trouble versus Anthony Davis is more than enough cause for concern.

Rotation

Ja Morant and Desmond Bane will log a ton of minutes in the backcourt. Flanked by Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies have a strong core. However, in the absences of both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, Jackson Jr. will shift to the ‘5’ at times. Not only will he be forced to guard Anthony Davis, but the former needs to stay out of foul trouble; something he has not proven in his young career. Moreover, Tyus Jones will play a crucial role off the bench, while Luke Kennard and John Konchar pick up a few minutes on the wing. Xavier Tillman will need to step up in the absence of Adams and Clarke, with Santi Aldama being the fallback option.

X-Factor

Just as Ja Morant comes into this series with something to prove, Desmond Bane cannot go unnoticeable for multiple games. There is no doubt that the Lakers will key in on Morant. Thus, Bane needs to be able to not only provide offense, but create his own shots and create for others when he handles the rock. Being able to get open off the ball will be crucial, as Morant will be forced to find his teammates more often than he is used to in this series.

Los Angeles Lakers (+120 to win series)

Introduction

After making it through the Play-In tournament after a single game, the Lakers now turn their attention to the Grizzlies. Outside of Los Angeles fans, most have Memphis winning this series with ease. However, there is a clear path to the Lakers winning this one. By utilizing Anthony Davis as much as possible, the Lakers can wreck havoc for Memphis on the inside. Moreover, LeBron James looks for a fifth NBA Championship, while the front office acquired multiple contributors to a potential run.

Matchup

The key to this matchup will be in the paint. Yes, Memphis has a quality roster along the perimeter, both in their starting unit and off the bench. However, with Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke both nursing injuries, Anthony Davis needs to dominate on the interior and the glass, while LeBron James needs to attack the rim every chance he gets.

Rotation

This Lakers rotation is surprisingly deep thanks to an overhaul at the trade deadline. Alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will play prominent minutes. Moreover, Jarred Vanderbilt and his defensive ability will earn him significant run. Rounding out the rotation are Dennis Schroder, Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, and Tory Brown Jr.

X-Factor

LeBron James and Anthony Davis look to shock the NBA community with a series win over Memphis. However, they will not be able to do it without Austin Reaves containing Ja Morant for multiple games. The breakout Laker will be tasked with guarding Memphis’ primary ball handler and will need to force him into bad shots. Moreover, Reaves’ offensive ability through attacking the likes of Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks on the other side of the ball makes him the key to a series win.

Sacramento Kings (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

Sacramento Kings (+225 to win series)

Introduction

Light the Beam! Sacramento will be making their first NBA Playoffs appearances since 2005-2006. After trading Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis, many had the Kings listed for a top pick in the upcoming draft lottery. However, this group had other plans. Behind career years from De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, this will be the most fun series of the entire opening round.

Matchup

The Warriors put up a lot of points, but they give up a ton as well. This is right up Sacramento’s alley, as they have done that all season long. However, the key to this series will be the first two games. Golden State struggled mightily on the road, and there may not be a louder building than Sacramento in the entire Playoffs. Look for De’Aaron Fox to score and create on every possession, as the Warriors ranked 24th to primary ball handlers and 27th to crafty finishers at the guard position.

Rotation

The core of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Harrison Barnes will see the most minutes. However, after that, things could get interesting. Yes, Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray will continue to start for the majority, if not every game this series. However, with the Warriors potentially going back to their roots of a smaller closeout lineup, look for Malik Monk to see a ton of run in this one. Moreover, Davion Mitchell gives Sacramento a quality on-ball defender, while Trey Lyles will be the first big man off the bench.

X-Factor

While this may be breaking the rules of the section, De’Aaron Fox is simply too important not to highlight. Yes, Domantas Sabonis was outstanding this season and led the NBA in both rebounds per game and total rebounds. However, it is Fox that will have to keep pace with Steph Curry on the other side. Following a career year where he was still snubbed from the All-Star game, Fox is looking to make waves in his first career playoff appearance and has the biggest stage of any guard in the opening round.

Golden State Warriors (-275 to win series)

Introduction

In an eventful season, the core of the dynasty remains. This was certainly a tighter race in the Western Conference than anticipated, and the Warriors were a mere two losses from being in the Play-In. Nonetheless, this is a team ready to make waves and has a clear path to yet another NBA Finals.

Matchup

While Sacramento had a career year in all facets of the season, their offense was simply outstanding. Not only did they finish first in offensive rating, but they posted a league-best 120.7 points per game. However, with an elite offense came a poor defense. The Kings finished 26th in defensive rating and struggled mightily on the wings and versus primary ball handlers. Domantas Sabonis is a beast in the paint and on the glass, but this is a pristine matchup for Curry and company.

Rotation

The Splash Bros will log a ton of minutes in this backcourt. However, with Andrew Wiggins returning in time for the NBA Playoffs since missing two months of action, others will need to step up. Donte DiVincenzo will get minutes on the wing, and Jordan Poole will get a ton of run off the bench as well when Thompson shifts to the wing. Moreover, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney will be tasked with a matchup versus Domantas Sabonis, while Gary Payton II and Jonathan Kuminga round out the rotation in sparing minutes.

X-Factor

Poised for another run at a Championship, the Warriors may have the toughest road than they ever have. The true x-factor in this series will be Jordan Poole. After winning Sixth Man of the Year last season, Poole averaged two more points per game this year while appearing in all 82 games for the Warriors. However, in a series versus the Kings, Poole will have to be able to be an effective secondary scorer if Golden State wants to keep pace. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson will lead the charge, but if Poole cannot outduel Malik Monk on the other side, it will be a quick out for the reigning NBA Champions.

Phoenix Suns (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Phoenix Suns (-500 to win series)

Introduction

Expectations need to be held in check for this Suns roster. Yes, they acquired Kevin Durant. However, not only has their starting unit played few minutes together, but their bench is not up to standards of others. Luckily, it is not a bench that wins the NBA Playoffs, but the starting unit. The core of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Deandre Ayton is one of, if not the best of remaining teams. However, this roster is a single injury or bad matchup away from falling short of an NBA Championship.

Matchup

Despite having two of the best defenders of this generation on the same roster, Los Angeles has not shown the ability to win tight games for a full series. Largely due to the absence of one, if not both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Clippers finished 17th in defensive rating this season. Moreover, they continued to struggle versus primary ball handlers, finishing 28th in the NBA. While Kawhi Leonard is capable of shutting down Kevin Durant, there is simply too much firepower on this Suns roster in the absence of Paul George.

Rotation

The core of Paul, Booker, Durant, and Ayton will soak up the majority of minutes for Phoenix. Moreover, Josh Okogie will take over the defensive responsibility left by Mikal Bridges in his departure to Brooklyn. The bench will be shallow, but look for Landry Shamet, Torrey Craig, and Cameron Payne (when healthy) to be first off the bench. Lastly, Terrence Ross and TJ Warren are options on the wing, while one of Bismack Biyombo or Jock Landale can sub in for Deandre Ayton in a limited capacity.

X-Factor

This offense is littered with elite options. Kevin Durant joins an established core of Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton. However, it is the savvy veteran running point that will need to be an x-factor in this series. Firstly, the matchup is as good as it gets. For years, the Clippers have struggled to guard primary ball handlers. Not only is CP3 one of the best to do it during his career, but of all time. Secondly, this offense had little time to familiarize itself before getting to the biggest stage of an NBA season. Thus, Paul can provide both stability and production with the ball in his hands by finding open teammates and limiting isolation possessions down the stretch.

Los Angeles Clippers (+375 to win series)

Introduction

In what was deemed a contender for years to come since Kawhi Leonard and Paul George joined forces, this roster has failed to live up to expectations. The main reason for their downfall has been injuries. After missing the entire season last year, Kawhi appeared in a mere 52 games for Los Angeles. Moreover, he has not played more than 60 games since 2016-2017. Paul George has been no better, appearing in 56 or less games in every year since he arrived to Los Angeles. This team has a strong foundation, but concerns loom.

Matchup

Phoenix is not the same team as they were for the majority of the regular season. Not only are both Devin Booker and Chris Paul healthy, but the acquisition of Kevin Durant makes this a roster capable of winning an NBA Championship. However, Kawhi Leonard has been one of the best playoff performers of this generation. Moreover, the Suns are vulnerable in the paint with Deandre Ayton and a combination of Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale off the bench. Lastly, the Clippers need to attack individual matchups versus Booker, Craig, and bench players to spark offensive opportunities.

Rotation

Coach Ty Lue is notorious for rotation changes. Since leaving Cleveland, where he won an NBA Championship with LeBron James in 2016, Lue has become a much better game manager. Kawhi Leonard will have to log as many minutes as his body can handle in the absence of Paul George. However, the surrounding cast will have to step up. Lue has veteran options in Nic Batum, Marcus Morris Sr., and Robert Covington. Both Mason Plumlee and Ivica Zubac will get to man the paint. Meanwhile, Norman Powell and Terance Mann will see increased roles with George out for the series. However, both Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland give Lue more options at the ‘2’. Lastly, Russell Westbrook will have to be his best if Los Angeles stands a chance at winning a game, let alone the series.

X-Factor

In the absence of Paul George, no one is as important to the Clippers as Kawhi Leonard. However, others will need to step up as well. Thus, Norman Powell is the x-factor in this series. While he has an abysmal matchup, he can score in bunches. Lining up against Kevin Durant is no joke, but Powell has the ability to play well off-ball to get open in a matchup versus Devin Booker. Moreover, Powell averaged 17 points per game off the bench this season. In a starting role, he will have to alleviate some of the pressure off Kawhi.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 3)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Amongst a plethora of games on the NBA schedule are a few that stand above the rest. Moreover, a few key rotations are on the second half of a back-to-back. Injury reports will be crucial to monitor heading into the late games, as usual. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+6.5)

Injuries for the Trail Blazers continue to get worse. While still missing Jusuf Nurkic to a calf injury, Anfernee Simons managed to log a mere 20 minutes before reaggravating his ankle injury after a two-week absence. The two have both been ruled out tonight, meaning this is once again an NBA slate where Damian Lillard will be amongst the most popular options in the field. After scoring 25 points versus Golden State, Lillard returned to form against the Pelicans, dropping an efficient 41 points in 39 minutes. He has now averaged 45.7/5.7/4.3 on 53.1% shooting in three games since the All-Star break, sporting an outrageous 41% usage rate. In the absence of Simons, look for Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle to see extended run.

Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

There are two ways to approach this Hawks offense tonight. The first, being the more clear path to success, is playing both Damian Lillard and Trae Young. However, be aware that, consequently, lineup construction is entirely dependent on this game being the highest scoring affair of the NBA slate. Young has logged three straight 30-point efforts since the All-Star break, averaging 33/2.7/8 through a commanding 40.1% usage rate. Moreover, the second approach is riskier. Both Clint Capela and John Collins have terrific matchups on the inside versus a Portland interior defense that struggles mightily in the paint and on the glass. However, Onyeka Okongwu is a candidate for increased minutes in favor of Capela, should Portland run a smaller lineup down the stretch.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings (OTB)

Los Angeles Clippers (OTB)

The Clippers are on the second half of a back-to-back and face another potential playoff opponent tonight. However, they are notorious for resting players in these types of situations, primarily Paul George and/or Kawhi Leonard. The former has said to have been on a minutes restriction lately, but his minutes say otherwise. Meanwhile, Leonard has been in and out of the lineup after serious injuries over the years. There is no clear cut way to get exposure here at the time of writing, but this is one of the best spots on the NBA slate for a team that is already missing Ivica Zubac (calf) and Marcus Morris Sr. (elbow).

Sacramento Kings (OTB)

Two of the best individual matchups on this NBA slate belong to the Sacramento Kings. If primary ball handlers versus the Clippers did not entice you enough over the years, the acquisition of Russell Westbrook only makes matters worse for Los Angeles. Enter De’Aaron Fox, who was back at practice yesterday after a wrist injury. In three appearances since the All-Star break, Fox has averaged 35.3/3.7/7.7 on 63.9% shooting. Moreover, Domantas Sabonis gets the matchup that the fantasy community loves: Mason Plumlee. The former Charlotte Hornet was a daily target to pick on, and the league’s leading rebounder will be no match for him.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (-1.5)

While this offense is dominated by Anthony Edwards in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns, both Mike Conley and Jaden McDaniels make for intriguing plays on this NBA slate. Since coming over from Utah, Conley has averaged 8.5/2.7/5.8 on a mere 36.7% shooting. While the numbers certainly do not jump off the page, the game environment is elite: the Lakers rank second in the league in pace, while ranking 27th against combo guards. Moreover, McDaniels has been a focal point of this defense, alongside Rudy Gobert. The former has been efficient on both ends of the court, scoring in double digits in five straight appearances while averaging 15.4/5.2/1.6 on 62.5% shooting during that span.

Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

Make no mistake about it, a matchup versus Rudy Gobert does not limit Anthony Davis’ ceiling on this NBA slate. Not only is he a candidate to lead all players in fantasy points scored, but he has a tremendous floor for someone of his position on the pricing grid. Over his last two appearances, AD has averaged 29/17/2 on 53.8% shooting, amassing four blocks per game. After sitting out the second half of a back-to-back the other night, not only is the Lakers star rested, but there is no one more crucial to this team at the moment.

Honorable Mentions:

Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+1.5)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors (OTB)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Jan. 24)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

A few teams are on the second half of a back-to-back, while others’ injury reports figure to be lengthy. This NBA slate will certainly be one to monitor throughout the day. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers (-1.5)

Chicago Bulls (+1.5)

The Bulls are on the second half of a back-to-back, meaning there is a chance players miss this game. In addition, Chicago has many players still on contracts with term, making them attractive trade deadline pieces. However, this is still one of the best game environments on the NBA slate. The trio of Lavine, Vucevic, and DeRozan will continue to dominate usage on the offensive side of the ball. Of the three, Lavine has the highest ceiling, but Vucevic has the best ceiling/floor combination. Over his last 11 games, Vucevic has record 11 straight double-doubles. Moreover, he has been dominant on the glass and has seen an increase in offensive looks. With the Pacers ranked 27th in the NBA against true centers, Vucevic will line up on Turner for a ton of minutes.

Indiana Pacers (-1.5)

Tyrese Haliburton continues to rehabilitate from a knee injury, leaving this offense with plenty of additional looks to go around. In this particular matchup against the Bulls, Buddy Hield will be the x-factor. On the season, Hield leads the NBA in three-pointers made with 181. Moreover, he has shot 42.2% from behind the arc, averaging 3.8 three-pointers per night. With the Bulls ranked 29th in the league in three-pointers allowed, Hield will be relied upon to shoulder the load.

Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans (OTB)

Denver Nuggets (OTB)

In a rare occurrence, Nikola Jokic has missed the last two games for the Nuggets. Should he miss this one again tonight, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. will see more shot attempts. However, the latter is also in question tonight considering he missed last game due to personal reasons. Should Porter Jr. miss this game, Bruce Brown and Aaron Gordon make for intriguing options on this NBA slate, barring a Jokic absence. This is an important injury report to monitor.

New Orleans Pelicans (OTB)

The Pelicans got off to a hot start but have been falling in the absence of both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. While the former is set to be re-evaluated soon, the latter is still listed as doubtful for tonight. Thus, CJ McCollum will continue leading this offense. Over the course of the season, McCollum has a 27.4% usage rate, resulting in 1.11 fantasy points per minute. However, with both Williamson and Ingram off the court, McCollum sees increases to 1.21 fantasy points per minute through a 31.8% usage rate. Denver ranks 26th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, setting the stage for McCollum to have a stellar performance.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers (+3.5)

Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5)

Despite missing many games for the Clippers throughout his tenure, Kawhi Leonard has been tremendous. The Klaw now has scored 24 or more points in seven straight appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 29.9/6.7/3.9 on 54.1% shooting during that span. In a game between the two Los Angeles teams, all eyes will be on Kawhi & Paul George versus LeBron James. If you are looking for serious star power on this NBA slate, there is no greater game environment than this one.

Los Angeles Lakers (+3.5)

Despite being in his 20th NBA season, LeBron James is showing no signs of slowing down. Only 223 points behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the all-time scoring record, James is set to make history in the near future. This season, James has averaged 29.8/8.5/6.9 on 50.8% shooting through a 36.8% usage rate. Moreover, he has scored 30 or more points in four of his last five games, averaging 35/8.8/7.6 during that span. Committing to this game environment limits your options for the rest of your DFS lineups, but it truly has the best potential on the slate.

Honorable Mentions:

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks (+3.5)
Charlotte Hornets @ Phoenix Suns (OTB)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/17/2023

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are only four games on the NBA schedule tonight, but there is plenty of intrigue. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5)

Toronto Raptors (+6.5)

Both of these teams are on the second half of a back-to-back and have key players in question. After the Raptors starting unit all played over 40 minutes yesterday in an overtime win versus the Knicks, it’s possible to see someone rest. The most likely candidate is Fred VanVleet, who has been dealing with a back injury. With Pascal Siakam dealing with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez in the paint, the perimeter options will have to carry the offense. VanVleet has been having a streaky season, showing upside on the offensive end, while also carrying a low floor. Moreover, Gary Trent Jr. seems to have shaken off his jitters from the beginning of the season. In his last 11 games, GTJ has seen 30 or more minutes in ten appearances, scoring 20 or more points in seven of them. The two are the preferred Raptors on this NBA slate.

Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5)

Giannis Antetokounmpo missed his third consecutive game yesterday. However, he had taken part in warmup and was listed as probable. Barring any setback, he is in a great spot to lead the NBA slate in scoring. While he had two poor performances recently, the upside he carries against the Raptors is tremendous. While Toronto sits 6th in the league in points allowed in the paint, Giannis is matchup proof. The MVP candidate has averaged 30.1/15/6.3 over his last seven games, despite two appearances with seven and nine points. There are plenty of studs to choose from on this slate, so Brook Lopez makes for a fine alternate to get exposure to this competitive game environment.

Brooklyn Nets @ San Antonio Spurs (+5.5)

Brooklyn Nets (-5.5)

Once one of the hottest teams in the NBA, the Nets are 0-2 since losing Kevin Durant to an MCL sprain. However, a matchup versus a Spurs defense that ranks last in the league could be what they need to get things in gear. The Spurs defense struggles most notably in their backcourt. They sit 27th versus primary ball handlers and 29th versus off-ball guards, allowing the 22nd most three-pointers and the highest shooting percentage from behind the arc. Ben Simmons has a modest 9% usage rate in two games without Durant, but he continues to run point alongside Kyrie Irving. Moreover, the quartet of Irving, Curry, Harris, and Warren are set to flourish in a quick game environment.

San Antonio Spurs (+5.5)

Vegas has this game as far from a blowout as anticipated. Despite the lopsided matchup on paper, the Spurs aren’t as big of underdogs as one would expect. Thus, the trio of Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson, and Jakob Poeltl are in for big minutes. Jones has been a pleasant surprise for the rebuilding Spurs this season. Over his last seven games, Jones has been phenomenal on offense despite the team’s 1-6 record. During that span, Jones has averaged 19.1/4.3/5.7 on 49.1% shooting. With the Nets shifting Simmons to the paint on defense, Jones gets a friendly matchup versus Kyrie Irving.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets (-6.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+6.5)

If you’re looking for fireworks on this NBA slate, look no further. This matchup is set to feature two elite offenses, but all eyes will be on Damian Lillard versus Nikola Jokic. The former has been on quite a tear for the Trail Blazers recently. Over his last five games, Lillard has scored 30 or more points in each appearance. Moreover, Lillard has averaged 38/3.6/6.4 on 53.1% shooting during that span while attempting over ten three-pointers per night.

Denver Nuggets (-6.5)

On the flipside of Lillard’s upside is none other than Nikola Jokic. The back-to-back NBA MVP has done it all for the Nuggets this season, and has posted three triple-doubles over his last four games. Moreover, he has averaged 20/13.5/12.3 during that span. If Jokic does not fit builds, both Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are good ways to get exposure to this elite game environment. The two rely heavily on their scoring to provide a good fantasy output, but if Jokic does not break the slate, it’s largely because someone else on Denver is carrying the load alongside with him.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Clippers (+1.5)

Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5)

While the status of Paul George greatly impacts the Clippers rotation, his probable return makes this an elite game environment that will go overlooked on a small NBA slate. While there are many players with offensive upside on both teams, none have been playing to the level that James Harden has been lately. Over his last five games, The Beard has averaged 23/8.4/13 on 57.4% shooting. Moreover, Harden has two triple-doubles during that span, while collecting 11 or more assists in each appearance. Primary ball handlers versus the Clippers will forever be one of the best matchups in NBA DFS, and Harden is set to take flight tonight.

Los Angeles Clippers (+1.5)

Exposure to the Clippers on this NBA slate is contingent on the status of Paul George. After practicing on Monday, the expectation is that PG will return after missing the team’s last five games. However, this greatly impacts the production of others around him. Given the level of uncertainty and the fact that this game is the last to tipoff, this is a risk that could send lineups to the top or bottom of the leaderboards.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/13/2023

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

As has been the theme of the week, tonight’s NBA slate is riddled with injuries. However, plenty of elite game environments remain. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers (+3.5)

Atlanta Hawks (-3.5)

The lone bright spot of the Pacers in their own end of the court has been their on-ball defense. However, this changes drastically with Tyrese Haliburton ruled out for the next two weeks. Trae Young missed last game with an illness, but is off the injury report. Wednesday night was a prime example of how this offense can struggle without the face of their franchise. Not only does Young lead the team with a 33.6% usage rate, but he also leads the team in both scoring and assists as well. Despite swirling rumors around the team, Young has been excellent this NBA season, averaging 27.5/2.9/9.8 on 42.2% shooting.

Indiana Pacers (+3.5)

As mentioned above, Tyrese Haliburton will be out for at least two weeks with a sprained elbow. Thus, there is ample opportunity for others on the offensive side of the ball. While TJ McConnell and Andrew Nembhard figure to share the rock on the starting unit, interest should also lie in Indiana’s shooters. While Atlanta has good on-ball defense thanks to Dejounte Murray, Trae Young has been abysmal on defense with a 117.7 rating. Thus, Buddy Hield and Bennedict Mathurin cannot be overlooked on this NBA slate. Hield leads the league in three-pointers this season with 165 makes. Moreover, he has averaged 18.3 points while shooting 42.7% from behind the arc. Meanwhile, Mathurin continues to lead the Pacers in usage at 25.8% and figures to play a crucial role in this offense in the absence of Haliburton.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers (-1.5)

Denver Nuggets (+1.5)

Nikola Jokic was a surprising addition to the Nuggets injury report. Known as one of the most durable players in the NBA over recent years, the back-to-back MVP will dictate exposure to this offense. Should he evidently play, he is in a prime spot to lead the slate in scoring. The Clippers currently rank 19th in points allowed in the paint and 24th versus true centers. Moreover, Jokic has averaged 25.5/12.3/11 over his last 13 games, recording a whopping seven triple-doubles along the way. If Jokic is ruled out, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon will lead the starting unit, while Bones Hyland becomes an intriguing play off the bench.

Los Angeles Clippers (-1.5)

Kawhi Leonard is no longer mispriced on NBA DFS sites. Tonight, in the absence of Paul George, Leonard will once again lead the charge for the Clippers. However, there are other targets in this offense as well. Norman Powell and Terance Mann both continue to log heavy minutes over veterans John Wall and Reggie Jackson. Moreover, Powell has now scored in double digits in each of his last four appearances. During that span, Powell has averaged 18.8/3.5/1.8 on 50% shooting, including 20 or more points in two of his last four outings. If you cannot play Leonard, don’t hesitate to get exposure to this offense in other ways.

Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings (-10.5)

Houston Rockets (+10.5)

A rematch of Wednesday’s contest is highlighted for the second time in three days. A key difference, however, is that Kevin Porter Jr. has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Thus, both Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun are elite targets on this NBA slate. On the season, Green leads the team with a 28.1% usage rate and has posted 0.98 fantasy points per minute. However, with KPJ off the court, Green’s output increases to 1.07 fantasy points per minute and a 32.4% usage rate. Moreover, Sengun continues to be ignored by the field. He was highlighted in Wednesday’s article, which you can find here. The sophomore came through with the first triple-double of his career, posting a 10/10/10 scoring line on 55.56% shooting.

Sacramento Kings (-10.5)

Another NBA slate featuring the Kings is another day to play Sabonis or Fox. However, both have been featured countless times over the years. Kevin Huerter was scratched on Wednesday because of an illness and he did not practice yesterday. Should Huerter be ruled out for tonight’s game, both Malik Monk and Terence Davis will play larger roles on offense against one of, if not the worst defense in the NBA. However, make no mistake about it, Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are the prime targets here.

Honorable Mentions:

Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs (OTB)
Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls (-4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/10

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Following the theme of the new year, there are numerous studs already ruled out for tonight’s NBA slate. However, there are marquee names nearing their returns, while others look to step up in their teammates’ absences. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5)

Detroit Pistons (+9.5)

In the absence of Bojan Bogdanovic, the Pistons offense will be searching for answers. There will be plenty of shots to go around, with a few benefactors. Killian Hayes continues to lead the charge in a surprisingly deep backcourt. While Philadelphia leads the NBA in defensive rating versus primary ball handlers, Hayes figures to be in for a ton of work tonight. Over his last three games, Hayes has logged 35 minutes per night, averaging 17.7/3/8.7 on 51.2% shooting. Moreover, Hamidou Diallo, Saddiq Bey, and Alec Burks make for intriguing options with Bogdanovic out. If Joel Embiid remains out for Philadelphia, Isaiah Stewart has a tremendous matchup versus Montrezl Harrell.

Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5)

Exposure to the 76ers offense in contingent on the availability of Joel Embiid. Should the face of the franchise return to the lineup after missing the last three games, both he and James Harden will be able to roll this offense efficiently versus the Pistons. However, if Embiid sits out another game, James Harden figures to be one of the more popular options on the NBA slate. Detroit currently ranks 29th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, struggling mightily since Cade Cunningham went down with a season-ending injury. Over his last eight games, Harden has scored 20 or more points in seven appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 23.1/6.1/11.9 on 41.6% shooting during that span. Harden is only in consideration should Embiid miss this game.

Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors (-4.5)

Phoenix Suns (+4.5)

No team in the NBA has as depleted of a rotation as the Suns. Tonight, they will be without Devin Booker, Chris Pauk, Cam Johnson, and Cam Payne. Moreover, Deandre Ayton, Landry Shamet, and Torrey Craig are all listed as questionable to play. This is not a question about statistics, per minute fantasy output, usage rate, or anything else. Rather, the Suns that do find themselves suiting up will be popular solely because there will be so few of them. Both Damion Lee and Duane Washington Jr. will see a ton of minutes in the backcourt, with the latter being a must play in all formats.

Golden State Warriors (-4.5)

Depending on how the Suns injury report shakes out, the Warriors will approach the game accordingly. Steph Curry is nearing a return from a shoulder injury, while Andrew Wiggins returned to the lineup the other night after missing 15 games. Golden State needs to get their best players back into rhythm, while prioritizing their long term health. One player that has been routinely in NBA lineups for our team has been Anthony Lamb. In the absence of Jonathan Kuminga, Lamb has been tremendous off the Warriors bench. Over his last three games, Lamb has logged over 31 minutes per night. Moreover, he has scored 17 or more points in each appearance, averaging 20/5.7/3.3 on 53.7% shooting, including 40% from behind the arc on 3.3 three-pointers made per game.

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5)

Dallas Mavericks (+2.5)

It’s forever been a matchup to pick on: primary ball handlers versus the Clippers. This season is no different than in years past, with Los Angeles ranked 26th in the NBA against the player type. On the other side of the ball, there’s a pretty good ball handler in Luka Doncic that the Clippers have to deal with. Leading the league with a 38.5% usage rate, Doncic has averaged 34/8.8/8.7 on 49.9% shooting this season. It’s a challenge in its own to get Doncic into NBA lineups on all fantasy sites, but his upside is like no other player in the league.

Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5)

In the absence of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard will be a must play on this NBA slate. On the season, Leonard has averaged 17.3/5.9/3.8 on 46.4% shooting through a 25.9% usage rate. However, he has been limited in both playing time and games played. With his teammate off the floor this season, Kawhi sees bumps in both output and usage rate. The former increases from 1.14 fantasy points per minute to 1.25 fantasy points per minute, while the latter jumps from 25.9% to 29.2%, leading the team. Not only does he have a high ceiling in an elite game environment, but his safe floor makes him one of the best targets of the slate.

Honorable Mentions:

Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors (-7.5)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Utah Jazz (-3.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/06

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are a ton of good matchups on the NBA schedule tonight. Unfortunately for fans, many stars of the game have already been ruled out. However, this makes this slate interesting for fantasy purposes. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5)

Brooklyn Nets (-4.5)

No NBA team is on a better run than the Nets. Before losing to the Bulls the other night, Brooklyn had strung together 12 wins in a row and are now 12-1 in their last 13 games. During that stretch, the duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have been phenomenal. The two lead the team in usage rate at 32.1% and 30.9%, respectively. Moreover, they have combined for 59 points per game. With Zion Williamson out for the Pelicans, Kevin Durant has a tremendous matchup versus the Pelicans’ wings. However, Kyrie Irving has scored 20 or more points in 11 of the team’s last 13 games, averaging 28.9/6.1/5.1 on 52.9% shooting. The two will combine for a ton of shots tonight, and either one makes for a great play.

New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5)

In the absence of both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans duo of CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas will be two of the most rostered players on the NBA slate. However, expectations need to be tempered. The Nets are no longer a team that can be easily beat in their own half of the court. Over the last ten games, they have the third-best defensive rating in the league. Moreover, they are now a top-10 defense in the NBA. Despite the interior presences of Nic Claxton and Ben Simmons, Valanciunas has the higher upside between he and his teammate. Over his last six games, Valanciunas has four double-doubles and has averaged 12.7/11.2/1.8 on 44.9% shooting.

Washington Wizards @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Washington Wizards (+1.5)

This game will be overlooked on a large NBA slate and it really should not be. Not only is it one of the best game environments, but a key injury to Bradley Beal opens up this Washington rotation. The Thunder currently rank 26th in the NBA against true centers, and we want to exploit their interior defense. On the season, Kristaps Porzingis has a 27.5% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute. However, with Beal off the court, these increase to a 29.8% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute. If you are reluctant to commit to KP at the top of the pricing grid, Daniel Gafford makes for an intriguing tournament play, as does Rui Hachimura, only if Gafford (elbow) misses this game.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

By now, everyone should know just how good Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been playing this season. He is far and away the top talent and fantasy player on a rebuilding Thunder team. However, similarly to Porzingis, there are other options if the salary is worrisome. In the absence of two frontcourt players, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Aleksej Pokusevski, the field has been searching for a replacement big man. However, it has been Josh Giddey that has reaped the benefits. Not only is he the leading rebounder on the team, but he has seen an increase in both scoring and usage rate. Over his last four games, Giddey has three 20-point efforts. Moreover, he has averaged 20.5/7.3/3.5 on 53.2% shooting, seeing a notable increase in shot attempts over his season average.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves (OTB)

Los Angeles Clippers (OTB)

I wanted to touch on this game because the Clippers are on the second half of a back-to-back. At the time of writing, Paul George is questionable for their game against the Nuggets. Moreover, Kawhi Leonard is a rest candidate on the second half of a back-to-back, as is John Wall, Nic Batum, and Marcus Morris. If the dominos fall with a lengthly injury report, this will be the spot for the majority of the value on a large NBA slate. Look for updates in Discord.

Minnesota Timberwolves (OTB)

There is no greater disappointment in the NBA than the Timberwolves. Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert in the offseason, Minnesota is actually performing worse on both ends of the court this season. However, with Karl-Anthony Towns still nursing a calf injury, there are many touches to go around on offense. Anthony Edwards will continue to lead the charge, however the Clippers boast two of the best defenders in the league in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Should both end up sitting, Edwards carries much more upside. Elsewhere, Rudy Gobert has been the primary cause for concern over this roster. However, with a friendly matchup against a Clippers defense that ranks 22nd against centers and 18th in points allowed in the paint, he makes for an intriguing pivot to a popular Jonas Valanciunas.

Honorable Mentions:

Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5)
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors (-3.5)
Atlanta Hawks @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/21

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Injuries and shortened rotations have been the theme of the week in the NBA. As was pointed out in both articles this week, this will continue to be the trend throughout the holiday period. Yesterday was utter chaos and there was only five games on the schedule. Tonight, with many more set to tipoff, it will be more of the same. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Golden State Warriors @ Brooklyn Nets (OTB)

Golden State Warriors (OTB)

With the Warriors on the second half of a back-to-back, this rotation will be one of, if not the most popular on tonight’s NBA slate. Assuming the injury reported is finalized as expected, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are strong candidates to receive the night off. Already without Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins, the Warriors would be without four of five regular starters. Jordan Poole instantly becomes a premier option, while there will be ton of viable value options as well.

Brooklyn Nets (OTB)

Exposure to the Nets offense all depends on the Warriors’ injury report. Should both Thompson and Green miss this game, in addition to both Curry and Wiggins being sidelined, this one could get out of hand rather quickly. However, blowouts are never predictable and this is an elite game environment on a large NBA slate. Both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have been phenomenal since the latter returned to the lineup in late November. During those 14 games, the Nets are 11-3. Moreover, the two have combined for a ridiculous 57 points per game during that span, representing 49.7% of the team’s scoring.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings (-6.5)

Los Angeles Lakers (+6.5)

Assuming LeBron James makes his return to the lineup tonight, this is the best game on the NBA slate. James sat out the tail end of the Lakers’ back-to-back after playing 35 minutes per game in the previous five, so it was likely precautionary, considering Anthony Davis will be sidelined for the next month. Having scored 30 or more points in his last four appearances, James has been carrying the Lakers once again in his 20th season. Moreover, he has averaged 32.8/7.5/6.8 on 57.4% shooting during that span. With Davis off the court this year, LeBron sees an increase in both usage rate and fantasy points per minute. The former goes from 31.6% to 33.9%, while the latter goes from 1.40 to 1.52. He is far and away one of the best targets at the top of the pricing grid.

Sacramento Kings (-6.5)

For those that have been here for multiple NBA seasons, you know where the Domantas Sabonis fanbase began. Tonight, to the surprise of no one, Sabonis is again a favorite amongst a loaded player pool. Over his last eight games, Sabonis has scored 20 or more points in six appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 20.8/15.6/6.6 on 68.9% shooting during that span. With the Lakers missing their best interior defender in Anthony Davis, the paint will be Sabonis’ to own on both ends of the court. The Lakers currently rank 27th in the league against true centers, while ranking 24th in points allowed in the paint. Moreover, both of these teams are top 5 in pace, making this the best game environment on the NBA slate.

Honorable Mentions:

Portland Trail Blazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+4.5)
Orlando Magic @ Houston Rockets (+2.5)
Charlotte Hornets @ Los Angeles Clippers (OTB)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/14

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Plenty of games on tonight’s NBA slate but a few stand out above the rest. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Golden State Warriors @ Indiana Pacers (OTB)

Golden State Warriors (OTB)

This will be an injury report to monitor throughout the day. While there is no clear path to take as of yet, there will be one once the NBA slate locks, as this is the first one on it. Klay Thompson has sat out back-to-backs this season, and he continues to rehabilitate from multiple ACL injuries. Moreover, Draymond Green is a rest candidate, Andrew Wiggins is out with a groin injury, and Steph Curry looked hobbled by the end of yesterday’s game against the Bucks. Thus, Jordan Poole can be one of the most popular players on the slate, depending on how this one shakes out.

Indiana Pacers (OTB)

Depending on who plays for the Warriors, there are different ways to get exposure to the Pacers in an elite game environment. The Warriors currently lead the NBA in pace, while the Pacers rank 5th. Thus, there will be a ton of offense in this one and getting exposure to both sides is a strong start to any NBA lineup tonight. Tyrese Haliburton has upside in this matchup given that the Warriors rank 23rd against primary ball handlers. Moreover, the duo of Buddy Hield and Myles Turner can do damage in the midrange of the pricing grid.

Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs (+6.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (-6.5)

This is a risky spot for the Trail Blazers. While they are heavily favored, Vegas does not have this as a landslide victory. Thus, be cautious with exposure but feel confident enough to get a piece of this high scoring game. Damian Lillard is the main contributor on offense, but this is a favorable matchup for Anfernee Simons as a tournament play. San Antonio currently ranks last in the NBA against off-ball guards, allowing over 44 fantasy points per game to the player type. Moreover, the Spurs rank last in three-point shooting percentage allowed and 23rd in three-pointers allowed per game. With Simons being one of three players to hoist up over ten three-pointers per night, he has the chance to lead the team in scoring tonight.

San Antonio Spurs (+6.5)

While the trio of Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Tre Jones will shoulder the offense once again, there will be value in this Spurs frontcourt. Jakob Poeltl remains out and Zach Collins is listed as doubtful to play. Thus, a combination of Jeremy Sochan, Keita Bates-Diop, Charles Bassey, and Isaiah Roby will see the bulk of minutes in a favorable matchup. Portland currently ranks 26th in the NBA against centers while being 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game. Look for updates in our projections for further direction.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (+6.5)

This game brings us back to a duo that won us a ton of money on Monday night. Despite the field loving Anthony Edwards, I preached the upside of Rudy Gobert as a pivot and tonight is the same case. While the Clippers are known to go with smaller lineups, they will have no choice to roll Ivica Zubac for more time, as the Timberwolves simply cannot match the Clippers’ small ball lineup with Towns still out. Thus, Gobert has massive upside in this matchup. The Clippers currently rank 24th in the NBA against true centers. Moreover, Gobert has three double-doubles in his last four games, averaging 19.5/15.8/1.5 on 66% shooting.

Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5)

I preached the upside of Kawhi Leonard in his last matchup and boy did he come through! Not only was he rostered by a mere 5% of the field that night, but Kawhi dropped 47 fantasy points in 29 minutes. Tonight, we’re going right back to the well. While on a “minutes limit”, Leonard has now seen 28 or more minutes in his last four contests. That is more than enough to do significant damage on this NBA slate. The Timberwolves currently rank 28th against wings, struggling mightily with their 3-and-D rotation. In his last contest, Kawhi dropped 25/9/6 on 83.3% shooting and I expect more of the same tonight, even despite an expected dip in efficiency.

Honorable Mentions:

Sacramento Kings @ Toronto Raptors (-5.5)
Miami Heat @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/12

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are plenty of elite matchups on tonight’s NBA slate. However, the majority of the action resides in the latter part of the schedule. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards (+5.5)

Brooklyn Nets (-5.5)

Back to back calls on Kyrie Irving has paid off in tournaments. On tonight’s NBA slate, he’s in another good spot. Over his last ten appearances, Kyrie has scored 20 or more in nine of ten. Moreover, he has averaged 25.2/4.4/4.5 on 51.3% shooting. With the absence of Royce O’Neale from the lineup, Kyrie becomes the primary three-point shooter as well. Washington currently ranks 28th in the league in three-point percentage allowed on 12.6 made attempts allowed per game. This play is for tournaments only, as I much rather get exposure to the next two games.

Washington Wizards (+5.5)

Exposure to the Wizards offense on tonight’s NBA slate depends on the availability of Bradley Beal. After leaving a game against the Lakers over a week ago, Beal has since missed three games and is questionable to play tonight. Should he be ruled out again, the trio of Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, and Deni Avdija will be in for another night of big minutes. The Wizards have been playing on an awfully short rotation this past week, and tonight may be the same case. Should Beal make his return, I’ll fade this game entirely to prioritize the next two.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (+4.5)

Karl-Anthomy Towns remains out and there is a lot to like about the trio of Edwards, Gobert, and Russell. While Anthony Edwards has the highest ceiling of the three, his point/dollar upside isn’t ideal in this matchup. Rather, Gobert will be in for a big night against Jusuf Nurkic. Portland currently ranks 24th in the NBA in defensive rating. However, they have been exposed in the paint. Portland struggles mightily on both ends of the floor, ranking 24th in the league against true centers. Moreover, they are 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game. Gobert certainly won’t lead the team in touches, but his efficiency around the rim will be on display. Many shot takers in this game gives Gobert plenty of rebounding opportunity.

Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5)

If you are not fond of the studs in the next game, you should be fond of Damian Lillard in an elite game environment. Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, Minnesota ranks 19th in the NBA in defensive rating. Moreover, they rank 27th against primary ball handlers. If that wasn’t enough for Lillard, Minnesota ranks 29th in three-point percentage allowed and 27th in three-pointers allowed per game. Over his last two games, Lillard has posted 30 or more points each time. He has averaged 38 points per game, chipping in 10 assists per night during that span as well. The shooting efficiency can always be an issue, but Lillard has attempted a whopping 28 three-pointers over his last two.

Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Clippers (+3.5)

Boston Celtics (-3.5)

In the absence of both Al Horford and Robert Williams III, the trio of Tatum, Brown, and Smart will be tasked with heavy minutes tonight. First, Tatum has the highest ceiling of the three, but is tough to fit in builds on this NBA slate. If you can, do so with confidence. Second, Brown has been one of the best shooting guards in the league this season. A model of consistency, Brown has scored 20 or more points in 23 of 25 appearances this season. Moreover, he is second on the team in usage rate at 31.2% while averaging 26.8/7.2/3.6 on 50.1% shooting. Lastly, Smart has a safe floor but low ceiling. He is in a great spot as a ball handler versus the Clippers and is easier to fit in midrange builds. Moreover, Smart has five or more assists in his last twelve games, averaging 13.7/3.3/8.2 on 49.2% shooting during that span.

Los Angeles Clippers (+3.5)

It might be time to finally deploy Kawhi Leonard with confidence on an NBA slate. This certainly won’t come with any risk, given that he has been in and out of the lineup since returning from a torn ACL. However, he has played 30 minutes in back-to-back appearances. Moreover, with Boston being without both Al Horford and Robert Williams III, a smaller Celtics lineup may force the Clippers to do the same, resulting in more rebounding opportunity for Leonard. If you’re uncertain of Leonard, then Paul George is one of the better targets in a thin Clippers offense. PG13 has averaged 32.5/7.5/6.5 on 48.9% shooting in his last two games and will be relied upon heavily tonight.

Honorable Mentions:

Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers (+2.5)
Atlanta Hawks @ Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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