LeBron James

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

We are slowly moving into the part of this NBA re-start where it feels like late-season NBA DFS – teams sitting players, scaling back rotations ahead of the playoffs and with that – means far more Stars and Scrubs kind of builds.

Today at first glance, this is feeling very Stars and Scrubs-y – yeah, sure that is a word, why not.

Let’s start with the key to the slate – the status of Russell Westbrook and what that means for James Harden.

We all know the drill by now, when Westbrook sits, you play Harden. Every time. No excuses. It is that simple.

The issue tonight is that the Westbrook news may not be known before lock and with the Rockers-Lakers the last game at 9 PM, we may have to wait and see. My take is simple – put Harden in your placeholder line-up with the expectation that Westbrook sits and IF we have to adjust, we can simply move things around later. I would much prefer this approach than building without Harden and trying to shoehorn him in after the fact.

With the focus on Harden tonight – what will that mean for the ownership on a more expensive Luka Doncic ($11.3K) who has played 40 MPG since the re-start and all he has done is rock 65, 65 and 83 fantasy point outings. With all the value we have on this slate (more on that in a moment) – there is a very easy argument to take the raw points of Luka AND Harden on this slate.

With the Memphis loss yesterday, Portland is now just one game back of the #8 spot in the Western Conference and now we get Big Game Dame! Damian Lillard ($9.7K) has played 40+ minutes in every single bubble game and put up 20 FGA in each game – and at under $10K on DK, there is a massive 6x ceiling for him here today.

Now, what will be interesting today is what people do with bubble darlings like TJ Warren and Michael Porter Jr.?

Will recency bias drive inflated ownership on these plays? Will that mean we see less focus on guys like Dame as an example if they are paying up for Warren? If we see ownership skewing away from the tried and true ceiling stars as everyone chases the next big thing – I think taking a stand here and fading them could pay huge dividends in GPP (or back fire as it has the last few slates).

The linchpin to all this – the Miami Heat.

With Jimmy Butler already ruled out and Goran Dragic questionable – the Heat are going to be value city and the fact they are the first game on the slate will likely mean we get inflated ownership as well.

Kelly Olynyk was the talk of the Discord the other day and that was before the Butler news came out which pushed Kelly O into a starting role that resulted in a 41 fantasy point performance. Even bumped to $4.8K on DK, I would argue there is still tons of profit potential here.

Tyler Herro was another projections play last slate and after going 6x his price the last two slates WITH Dragic playing, why would we move off today if Dragic sits. Herro at $3.6K is basically a free square.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up

Going Stars and Scrubs today seems like the absolute best path with so much value opening up and getting 2-3 studs and using all this sub $4K value with clear paths to minutes is going to be my preference in all builds.

Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

Monday’s NBA DFS slate was, well quite ugly for those who followed in my advice of stacking the Pelicans and Grizzlies as the two teams shot below 30% from the floor in a clunker that from the outset was played at a sloppy and slower pace then we saw these teams play before the break. Winning scores in GPP’s pushed near 380 once again as the early games had some serious stand out performances with TJ Warren (70) and Michael Porter Jr. (60) setting the stage for a high scoring night in NBA DFS.

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Today’s six-game NBA DFS slate kicks off at 1:30 PM EST with perhaps the ugliest game (or at least we hope) of this re-start with a Brooklyn/Milwaukee game in which the Nets are resting every NBA player they have. I know what you are thinking, they only had like 2 or 3 in this re-start anyways so how could they do that? Well you see, the Nets have played a few games of basketball and now its time for their 20-year-old core players like Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert to get some much-needed rest.

All I can say is THANK YOU DRAFTKINGS.

Seriously, thank you.

DK went ahead and spiked all the potentially Nets chalky value into insane pricing which makes the decision to ignore this game far easier. Chris Chiozza ($9.3K) is $100 cheaper than Russell Westbrook. Think about that for a second.

If all these guys were sub $4K it would have turned into gross Nets chalk day and I am so very happy we can avoid that!

So where do we go next? There are two games on this slate that stand out to me as Houston/Portland (243 total) and Dallas/Sacramento (236 total) gives us some high totals and a whole lot of star power to build around.

With Giannis in a likely early blow-out, I think much of the top tier decision will come down to whether you opt for Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, James Harden, Russell Westbrook and/or Damian Lillard? To me, the star power rests squarely in these two games and getting the right mixture of stars here I think will be the key to unlocking this slate.

Harden at $11.3K is the most expensive play on this slate and there is no doubt he has the ceiling to be the late night hammer that changes this slate but his struggles against Portland have been noticeable this year – going for just 36 and 37 DK points in the last two meetings against Portland as he shot 26% over those two games.

What is interesting about those two match-ups compared to the November game in which he went for 56 DK points, is those later games had Trevor Ariza on the court for Portland who as we know is sitting out this re-start. So was this Ariza’s impact? Were they just two poor shooting games for the Beard?

Any time you see games where Harden struggled, it is best to see how Russell Westbrook ($9.4K) did in those games and it is not shocking to see the correlation in a Westbrook spike in performance with The Beard off his game. Westbrook has torched Portland this season in every single match-up – going for 65.5, 68.8 and 69.8 DK points in the three previous meetings. In the two game re-start, Westbrook has actually been the usage leader on this team at 35.8% compared to Westbrook at 28.8% and with the $2K salary savings off Harden, this could be an interesting spot to pivot if the regular season is any indication.

You know who didn’t struggle that last match-up? Damian Lillard ($9.9K) who dropped a 70 DK points triple-double the last time these two teams met and has played a whopping 44 and 45 minutes in the two re-start games for Portland.

In the two games since the re-start, the Mavs have been a two man show – with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis both sporting usage rates above 30% and 1.6 FP/M a piece.

This is another spot where salary could determine how we approach this, with KP nearly $2K lower than Luka on a slate without much obvious punt value.

Think of it this way – you make the strategic decision to move away from Harden/Luka and move to Westbrook/KP which saves you $4K on DraftKings and gives you the direct leverage assuming you grabbed the team’ stars that will have the big night.

Moving off the price points of Luka/Harden gives you the option also of going 3 deep at star as you can drop below $10K and get all three of Westbrook/Dame/KP and you still have $4.3K per player for the rest of your build.

What I love about this build is the price point you are left with in the mid $4K range gives you a huge player pool just from the top two games to mix and match with.

From Dallas/Sacramento – the Kings entire starting unit besides De’Aaron Fox is $5.2K or lower and the Mavericks will get some potential value in Delon Wright ($4.1K) today with Seth Curry looking unlikely to play.

Portland meanwhile has mid-range starters like Carmelo Anthony ($5.7K) and Zach Collins ($4.3K) and this may be the team playing the most condensed rotation in the league right now since the re-start.

In the last two games, this team is running basically a 6-7 man rotation with heavy reliance on the starting unit and that is what you are banking on again here by grabbing multiple fringe plays from this game. In the last game against the Celtics, Portland played a 7 man rotation in the second half of that game with Whiteside the direct sub for Nurkic and it was Gary Trent ($4.3K) who got all the 4th quarter run with the starters.

The Rockets on the other side of this game are essentially a carbon copy – running their starters into the ground with Eric Gordon sidelined. Every single starter played 30+ minutes against the Bucks and all 5 played 40+ against the Jazz on their opening night. In both instances no bench player saw more than 22 minutes.

So what does it all mean? I love the idea of stacking the secondary plays in this game because of the minutes certainty. To me, you can get 2-3 pieces from both teams very easily in a mini game stack here around a Westbrook/Dame superstar combo.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up

Once again for GPP’s I am all about drawing my line in the sand and taking a stand and tonight I am going to limit my player pool to Houston/Portland and Dallas/Sacramento. These games to me not only give you the stars to build around but the mid-range value here has the most consistent and direct paths to minutes and value.

Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

Looking back at Sunday’s NBA DFS slate, the winning lineup in the $100K to first GPP on DK went with a Wizards/Nets game stack and a Giannis one-off that put up a massive 399 fantasy points. The build is one that I love to employ in NBA DFS as they went 3v3 and one stud – using Levert, Harris, and Allen from the Nets and running it back with Bryant, Brown, and Ish from the Wizards. Getting those huge ceiling games from this game and locking in the stud in Giannis gave them a massive high upside performance and a huge payday!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Monday’s NBA DFS slate kicks off at 4 PM EST with 5 games on the slate and a handful of superstars at the top including LeBron, AD, Embiid and The Joker. We have teams on the tail end of a B2B which is something we have yet to see in the bubble as both Memphis and San Antonio will play again after their match-up on Sunday.

Once again we will likely have some serious value as we already know the Nuggets will once again be without Gary Harris and Will Barton, while Jamal Murray is highly questionable to play.

Looking over this slate initially, my eyes immediately locked in on a game that my heart and recent bankroll are telling me not to – but this Memphis/New Orleans game has all the making of a game that could break open a slate.

Now if you have been in the WinDaily Discord the last week, you have seen that the Pelicans are no longer cordially invited into many of our DFS lineups after burning us the first two games of this re-start but we have to have a short memory in DFS and if you are letting recency bias take you off this game on a 5 game slate, I think you are making a mistake.

Memphis right now is clinging to the #8 spot in the West after their loss to the Spurs yesterday, just 2 games up on San Antonio, 2.5 up on Portland and 3.5 up on New Orleans. To say this is the “last dance” for New Orleans is an understatement – any chance they have of staying in this race to the end requires a win today against the team they are chasing.

Combine the fact both teams here are desperate for a win with the simple fact that these two teams play at top 5 pace metrics in the NBA and you can see why the Vegas total is near 240 and is 10+ points higher than any other total we have. In the two previous meetings this season, these two teams combined for 242 and 250 points so to say this is the game environment we want to target is oversimplifying.

I imagine the Grizzlies side of this game will be far more popular as we saw the Clippers as an example draw massive ownership the last slate against New Orleans with guys like Kawhi and PG13 nearing 50% ownership.

With the huge totals, the tight rotation and the clear 30+ minute roles for the starters here – I would expect multiple Memphis pieces to pop in projections. Considering the pricing, the fact you can get the entire starting line-up on DK for an average price of $6.1K, makes this an easy team to stack.

Ja Morant ($7.3K) is the core play here from Memphis, having played 37 and 41 minutes in the first two games and racking up 47 and 48 fantasy points – meaning he has gone for 6.4x+ in both games at this price point. While the two early meetings with the Pelicans did not see him meet these totals, I will roll with the recent games for the ROY in what seems like a total mis-pricing on DK.

The question then on Memphis becomes what else do you plugin – do you go to Jonas Valanciunas ($7.9K) as the next man in? With New Orleans not having the traditional bigs, I could see this game going small and Jo-Val playing sub 30 minutes once again and instead this seems to set up perfectly for a Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6.2K) game.

JJJ has played 35 and 43 minutes the last two games and averaged 37 FP/G which would put him above 6x value at this price point today. Jackson only played one of the two earlier meetings with the Pelicans and went for 33 FP in 30 minutes and his game translated perfectly to this up-tempo pace with a massive ceiling we can build around.

Dillon Brooks ($5.1K) was the scapegoat on Sunday with a costly end of game foul and makes for an intriguing GPP play as a third stack piece. We saw the floor/ceiling combo with Brooks in these two earlier match-ups as he dropped 53 FP in one game and just 23 in the other as his scoring dependency is going to drive his fantasy output. These last two games the shots have been there, with 36 FGA including 16 from 3 and its that volume that makes him a high upside play with clear 6x and more ability at this price point.

Now the Pelicans side becomes the rub and if Saturday’s ownership was any indication – the large majority of folks have already moved off them,

The $100K GPP on DK saw the following ownership levels on the Pels Big 3 – Lonzo Ball (2%), Jrue Holiday (7%) and Brandon Ingram (13%).

If that trio is once again going to be single-digit owned as a stack in this game spot – I am all-in. The fact that DK actually increased the pricing on them since Saturday’s blow-out may also drive ownership down as the trio is now priced $1,100 more than they were Saturday.

If you are going to have multiple pieces from Memphis here, I just do not see a season to avoid the run back as the ceiling for the Grizzlies is going to be heavily correlated with the ceiling from the Pelicans.

It is a stack spot for me and once that is ideal for 3v3 type builds. Go Morant, JJJ and Brooks and run it back with Lonzo, BI and Jrue and you have $3.3K for the last two spots in your build.

Burn me once – shame on you. Burn me twice – shame on me. Burn me three times? Well, let’s see what happens my friends.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up

These 5-6 game NBA DFS slates so far have been all about upside as it has been 350-400 point scores on DK atop the leaderboard so you better aim high if you plan to cash out and that is exactly what I plan to do with the Memphis/NO game stack.

Ownership can really help us get leverage today and if the Pelicans remain a team that folks stay away from, then go all-in. Conversely, if they are chalky – the last two games and the increase in price is also a viable argument to stay away. But to me, the upside in this game outweighs any risk and if/when it hits – well, it could be a GPP takedown spot!

Stay tuned to Win Daily today as our custom projections will be uploaded and updated every 10 minutes during the day as news breaks as my dude Ghost has worked tirelessly to perfect the model that has put us on all the top value each slate!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

Saturday’s NBA DFS slate has a little bit of everything as we had some superstar ceiling games (Embiid 80+ DK pts), some major letdowns (ahem Pelicans), a whole lot of 7x value and a 70 fantasy point performance from the one and only TJ Warren! The key on this slate, much like it was on Friday, was nailing the ceiling games from the stars as these 70-80 fantasy point games are driving the cash lines higher and higher.

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown: The Stars

With the superstar ceiling games top of mind the last two nights, it is hard not to open this slate and notice we have a trio of slate breaking studs at our disposal again today.

With James Harden, $11.1K), Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11K) and Luka Doncic ($10.8K) all over $10K on DraftKings, we are going to have to decide right away the path we want to take with these stars.

If there was any worry about minutes restrictions for this trio in the first game in the bubble, well that was quickly dispelled as Giannis played 32 minutes and dominated the usage as he typically does with 35% usage on his way to 70 DK points against Boston. Harden and Luka meanwhile went into OT and played 43 and 42 minutes respectively while dropping 85 and 65 DK points on opening night.

Let’s start with Luka, who will take on a Suns team he dropped 74 fantasy points on earlier this season comes at a minimal discount to both Giannis and Harden and that may again drive his ownership higher as he was the highest owned star on Friday’s similarly superstar driven slate at 46% in the Milly Maker.

Giannis was the next highest owned at 33% and if you played him against the Celtics, I am not sure how you don’t go back to the well in a far better game environment against the Rockets. These two teams played earlier in the season and Giannis racked up 71 DK points in just 28 minutes – as if we needed any more data to suggest this is a ceiling spot for the Bucks franchise star.

Lastly, we have Harden, the lowest owned of the trio on Friday at just 27% who had the best game of them all with 85 DK points. In the earlier season match-up it was actually Russell Westbrook who had the better game with 62 DK points compared to Harden’s 51.

What was fascinating to me looking back at Friday’s game against Dallas was the usage metrics for the Rockets duo. Westbrook led the team with a 36% usage rate while Harden was significantly below his season average of 35.6% – all the way down at 27%,

So while The Beard’s usage was down nearly 10%, he still managed to get 85 fantasy points. Think about that for a second.

Now his efficiency in that game was off the charts, shooting 14-20 from he floor and getting 18 of 21 from the line, which are not sustainable marks for his fantasy production but as the usage ticks up to his normal levels, it may offset any drop in his shooting efficiency.

This trio here today and how you attack them, is going to determine how this slate shakes out for you – I think it is just that simple. If these three stars all have ceiling games, you are missing out on a 200+ fantasy point foundation. Conversely, if you fade the stars and go more balanced, you could gain significant leverage off the field if they have floor games.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown: The Scrubs

One of the reasons that the stars have been so critical these first two large slates is that we have so much value which allows you to grab 2-3 stars without much effort and today looks to be more of the same!

The popular value spot on Friday in San Antonio looks to be every bit as viable today in a far better match-up against the up-paced Grizzlies. With San Antonio being so banged up, Pop is clearly giving the secondary players on this team a LONG look as we saw guys like Jakob Poeltl and Lonnie Walker step into the starting lineup and play 32 minutes each.

Additionally, our projection models were high on a minimum priced Keldon Johnson on Friday, an impressive rookie who played 30 minutes off the bench with 17 of his 30 minutes coming in the second half/closing minutes of their game against the Kings.

This trio combined for 73.75 fantasy points against the Kings, as all three players went for 30+ minutes and today you can get all three players for just $10.5K on DK which would set you up for another 7x value with a similar outing. I know it is scary to think about going with so many values, but if you go Transformers style and combine Lonnie, Poeltl and Keldon into one player – you essentially have another $10K player with 70+ upside. Fire up LonPoeDen (yes that is the trio combined) – here again for all the value!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up

If you step back and look at another Stars and Scrubs build today, you have another very clear path to 300+ DK points that I think we need to simply follow.

If you replicate Harden/Luka/Giannis and let’s combine the 3 Spurs value – that core 6 was able to give you 293+ DK points on Friday. That becomes a similar baseline with two more spots to go in your build.

For as long as we have this easy value – considering this is also a slate with the three biggest usage/fantasy stars in the NBA – I am going to take the path of least resistance and go Stars and Scrubs once again!

Stay tuned to Win Daily today as our custom projections will be uploaded and updated every 10 minutes during the day as news breaks as my dude Ghost has worked tirelessly to perfect the model that has put us on all the top value each slate!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

Friday’s first slate back of NBA DFS was absolutely awesome and if you read the content here at Win Daily, were in the Discord and used the projection models – well, let’s just say you were probably part of the late-night screenshot parade that included GPP takedowns from our members and team!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown:

The biggest takeaway I have had from these first two slates in the NBA is that the idea of any sort of “ramp-up” is complete nonsense as the run/minutes for the star players is making it seem like it is back in mid-March and nothing ever changed. Seeing guys like Harden/Luka playing 40+ minutes last night, watching LeBron/AD and company all play 33-34 minutes two nights ago – the stars are playing normal minutes and so we need to re-adjust our perception.

Looking at today’s slate we have a ton of star power on this five-game slate and the argument again will be for just how many studs can we fit in!

The absolute best game on this slate is Clippers-Pelicans with Vegas giving us a game that has a total 10 points higher than any other at 227 and the two highest projected scoring teams on the slate with Clippers (116) and Pelicans (111).

The big news here is that Zion Williamson will continue to have his minutes monitored after playing just 15 minutes against the Jazz. The Clippers meanwhile will be without Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell again so we get the benefit of very similar rotations to what we saw the first night of the season.

Kawhi Leonard and Paul George played 33 and 34 minutes respectively against the Lakers and in this pace up game environment, I think both can deliver ceiling performance at these price points. In the two previous games against New Orleans that both these stars played in (the last game PG13 sat out), they averaged right at 100 fantasy points per game combined and that is the kinda floor/ceiling you are setting here again.

The Pelicans side without Zion leads me right back to the “Big 3” for the Pelicans in a must-win game being 3.5 out of the playoff picture. So go right back to Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball as the clear usage and FP winners with Zion off the floor.

Now, I know for many of you – you got burned by Lonzo last game and it may be tempting to jump ship but please do not. Look at his stat line – 6 board, 7 assists and 2 steals. What killed him – and what usually does – is his poor shooting and opening night was no different as he went a putrid 2 for 13 from the floor.

In GPP’s Lonzo’s ability to rack up a triple-double on any night gives him massive appeal and upside and if game log watchers are going to jump off, I say we stay right back on the train and stack all three Pelicans stars!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up

Now you might look at the advice above and say – but Brian, how can I get Kawhi, PG13, Lonzo, Jrue and BI all in one lineup – that only leaves me $9.5K for my last three players.

Fear not Win Daily family – go click on the Nuggets, because today they are all the punt value we need. With Will Barton and Gary Harris already ruled out and Jamal Murray questionable, we will have tons of value right off the bat with the first game on the slate (and confirmed lineups).

If Murray sits – you can get a Nuggets back-court stack of Monte Morris and Torrey Craig for $6.5K combined. Seriously – take advantage of this punt value while we have it – just lock it in! The one guy we should not overlook for GPP’s is a min-priced Michael Porter Jr. who has put up 1.2 FP/M this season with the Nuggets trio off the court and with SF/PF eligibility on DK, he offers you a ton of roster construction flexibility.

Stay tuned to Win Daily today as our custom projections will be uploaded and updated every 10 minutes during the day as news breaks as my dude Ghost has worked tirelessly to perfect the model that has put us on all the top value each slate!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

Last night’s two-game slate appetizer saw ties atop the Milly Maker leaderboard on both FanDuel and DraftKings – with Win Daily Sports very own Draft Master Flex sitting atop the FanDuel leaderboard! Congrats my man – what a way to kick off the season – here was the winning line-up for those who may have missed it in Discord late last night!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown:

We have a six-game slate here today which starts at 2:30 PM EST with the Magic/Nets and will carry on until the late-night hammer in the Rockets/Mavericks at 9 PM EST. DraftKings has another $1M to first place GPP today with the buy-in elevated to $25 and as I write this Friday morning, only 40,000 of the 142,000 spots are spoken for – hello overlay!

So where do we start?

We already have some new injury news as players like Eric Bledsoe, Bryn Forbes and Eric Gordon will miss tonight’s first game and they get added to the list of players we already knew were out the rest of the year – including LaMarcus Aldridge, Kelly Oubre, Davis Bertans, Trevor Ariza, Willie Cauley-Stein, DeAndre Jordan, Bradley Beal, Spencer Dinwiddie, Taurean Prince, Trey Lyles, Justise Winslow, Marvin Bagley and a partridge in a pear tree.

What it all means is that we have some serious value starting off this first slate and if last night was any indication – those $3-$4K plays on DraftKings like Jordan Clarkson or JJ Redick, can make a massive impact on your roster construction.

If you are going to pay up on this slate, the most obvious spot in my mind to do so is the Rockets-Mavericks, a game with a slate-high 228 total and just a -1.5 spread which means we get the old high & tight combo that is ideal for stacking!

If you are targeting this game it all starts with the studs – Luka Doncic with James Harden and Russell Westbrook on the other side of the game but locking in that trio on DraftKings will leave you with just $3.8K per player for the final 5 spots in your build.

This trio combined for 205 DraftKings points the last time they met in January and today at a combined salary of $30.9K – that would mean a similar output would give you 6.6X from your stars.

Now, past performance does not guarantee future success but good gravy, if these stars have ceiling games and you don’t have them – well, your currently winning number is going to drop off a cliff once the late-night hammer stars.

The Stars/Scrubs approach is 100% viable here today with all the injury news and value we have so I think stacking this game is a viable and preferred path in GPP’s as these two squads are separated by just 1.5 games in the 6th and 7th spots in the West.

Going Stars/Scrubs around the high ceiling stars here doesn’t take much – in fact, you can largely stay in this game and get a handful of starting players to utilize alongside them. PJ Tucker ($4.2K) and Daniel House ($3.8K) will start alongside Russ/Harden with Eric Gordon sidelined and the Mavericks will have Maxi Kleber ($4.7K) up front alongside KP with Dallas thinner in the frontcourt with WCS sidelined.

The Other game that really catches my eye here today is the Grizzlies/Blazers – a game with a similarly high and tight environment with a 224 total and 2.5 point spread. This game has massive playoff implications with Memphis clinging onto the 8 spot, just 3.5 games ahead of Portland so to say we have an immediate need for a win on both sides is an understatement.

With a pace-up spot and a mus win for Portland, Damian Lillard ($9.3K) becomes another top tier option and a potential pivot off Russ at a similar price point on DK. The Blazers are going to be a fascinating team to watch here as they welcome back both Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins alongside Hassan Whiteside. Collins at $3K is the minimum price on DraftKings and is expected to draw the start here which could make him one of the top PP/$ on the slate!

Memphis is almost always about Ja Morant ($7K) and this price point on DK makes him a player that you can slide in with Dame and still allows you to get some serious star power in the late-night game but more on that in a moment. Morant went for 40+ DK points the first time these teams met and I think he has a serious path for 6x here tonight in a must win game for Memphis.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up

One strategy I love at first glance tonight is a 2/2 star stack of this game and the Houston/Dallas game and really that boils down to two scenario’s:

• Build #1: Dame/Morant and Luka/Harden – $3-$3.1K remaining for last 4 spots
• Build #2: Dame/Morant and Luka/Westbrook – $3.4-$3.5K remaining for last 4 spots

In both instances, you are going super Stars and Scrubs but in this context of this slate, I think it becomes the preferred approach. We are going to have multiple plays in the $3K price point range in starting lineups today – we have brutally depleted lineups in Brooklyn and Washington and while the idea of going all-in on any of those fringe pieces is scary, we all know that minutes and opportunity are key in NBA DFS and if these punt options have paths – well, it allows us to stack up 4 of the best plays on the slate.

Stay tuned to Win Daily today as our custom projections will be uploaded and updated every 10 minutes during the day as news breaks as my dud Ghost has worked tirelessly to perfect the model that had us all over Clarkson/Reddick last night. Let’s do it again!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown:

The first night back for the NBA since mid-March will give us an appetizer slate with two games – as the Jazz/Pelicans start off at 6:30 PM EST with the Lakers/Clippers to follow at 9:00 PM.

There are a few key items we should cover first:

• The Clippers will be without both Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell and the status of Patrick Beverley remains questionable.
• The Lakers will be without Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley, while both Dwight Howard and Anthony Davis are questionable to play. As I write this, the latest update is that AD expects to play (we have seen this before).
• The Jazz will be without Bojan Bogdanovic for the rest of the season due to wrist surgery.
• The Pelicans have welcomed Zion Williamson back inside the bubble but there are questions if he will suit up the first night back.

So to recap – AD is questionable, the Clippers are missing two key players and we still do not know if Zion will play – yep, it is like the NBA never missed a beat.

As we ramp back up for the start of the season, the truth is – we have far more unknowns than things we have certainty on – basically 2020 in a nutshell. All that means is you need to be comfortable as DFS players with the risk you are taking on because these “seeding games” could be a total crapshoot.

All that leads me to focus entirely on GPP’s because until we know – well, we don’t know.

One thing we do know is the standings. The Lakers and Clippers sit 1-2 in the West separated by 5.5 games while the Jazz are in the 4th spot but just a game away from dropping to 6th. The Pelicans meanwhile are the lone team on this slate on the outside looking in as they sit 3 games behind Memphis for the 8th spot in the Western Conference and for that reason, they would seem to be the best bet for immediate production with no room to spare in their playoff push.

The biggest question mark is whether Zion Williamson will play or sit and it makes a massive difference in how we approach this slate. In the games played post-All-Star break, the Pelicans ranked as the 2nd fastest-paced team in the league and if Zion were to sit, I think you have a very clear path to increased usage for the rest of the team that we know plays fast.

Without Zion, a three-man core of Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday and Brandon Ingram would become the foundation of my builds as we know where the bulk of the Pelicans fantasy production would come from. In 478 minutes this season on the court together without Zion, this trio has put up 115 fantasy points per 36 minutes which at their combined salary would put you just under a 5x return.

Nicolo Melli will likely draw the start in place of Zion, should he sit, as we saw him slide into the starting rotation in the pre-season bubble exhibitions and at $4K would offer you serious salary relief for a two-game slate. JJ Redick is another player that if Zion were to sit would see a slight uptick in his usage and FP/M production and provide another value alternative on a slate where we will need to find every dollar we can!

Now if Zion were to play, even in a limited role – I think you cross off guys like Melli/Redick and any minute he is on the court, he caps the upside of the other Big 3 so a Pelicans all-in stack really hinges on Zion sitting.

If you go this route, then I think running it back with a game stack is the best approach in GPP’s and for the Jazz, that will always start with Donovan Mitchell.

While you may not think that injury to Bojan would impact Mitchell all that much, it is D-Mitch that actually gets the biggest fantasy boost with an additional 2.3 FP per 36 this season. The other player that should see an uptick off the bench is Jordan Clarkson who sees a 2% usage boost and grades out as an FP/M player. In a fast-paced game like this, Clarkson could be a guy who regardless of game flow gets his minutes and could put up big numbers chucking off the bench.

At this point, you may be wondering when I am going to get to the marquee game on this slate – Lakers and Clippers. Well, we are here, and honestly – my gut was to fade it.

I think teams like the Lakers are going to use these 8 games back as full-on ramp-up spots with their eye solely on getting ready for the playoffs and the quotes/interview from LeBron James have seemed to back that up in the last few days. The addition of guys like JR Smith and Dion Waiters and the absence of guys like Rondo/Bradley lead me to see this as a time where LA works out its rotations rather than pushes for maximum minutes.

The one play here that I do have some interest in as a punt is Dion Waiters at $3.1K on DK. This tweet below from Mike Gallagher at Establish the Run really caught my eye as Waiters has been among the Disney usage leaders and with a clear path to minutes with a banged-up guard/wing rotation in LA – he could pay off this near minimum price tag if his shot is falling!

The last piece of the puzzle is the Clippers, again not a team I expect is going to go all-in for seeding but with just a 1.5 game lead on Denver for the #2 spot and 3 games above Utah for the #4 seed, they cannot afford to take this ramp up too lightly.

With Lou Will and Trez out for this game, I think it will mean far more on the plates of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The difference in pricing for these two on DK is absolutely staggering as Kawhi is $2K more than PG13 and the metrics would tell us that with Williams/Harrell off the court this season – it is actually George that gets the biggest usage and FP/M bump. Of all the stars in the LA battle, PG13 at $7.2K seems like the best bang for your buck!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up

So where does all this leave us?

With Anthony Davis likely to play now, I do not see the need to shoe-horn LeBron into my lineup at his price tag and with an expectation that he is simply playoff prepping.

The key here is to take a stand on a two-game slate and with that being said, I think rolling a NO-Utah game stack is the ideal way to plant your flag. Assuming Zion sits, it becomes a far easier path to go all-in on the Pelicans and run it back with Mitchell but be ready to scale back if we get word Zion is a go.

All in all – play this slate and these first few games light and with a GPP focus. Take shots because while you are likely just guessing at how this COVID bubble world unfolds – guess what – SO IS EVERYONE ELSE.

So take stands. Fade LeBron on a two gamer. Ignore AD as he heads to the Locker Room. Don’t be afraid to take chances because playing the chalk on a two-game slate and hoping for a “min-cash” is a wasting an opportunity to get a little crazy.

Welcome back NBA. We missed ya.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.