LeBron James

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Wednesday Night’s slate is a repeat of the Monday two game slate with the Bucks/Heat continuing their second round series while OKC and Houston face off in a Game 7.

Monday Night’s winning lineup in the $100K to first GPP on DK pushed 320+ fantasy points with a more balanced build – ignoring the stars like Giannis and Harden and building around the mid-range with a lineup consisting of Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Goran Dragic, Robert Covington, PJ Tucker and Darius Bazley.

Also fun fact – you cannot just play that lineup again tonight on DK – I tried.

The fact we a carbon copy slate just 48 hours later will make for some interesting game theory and discussion on how we approach this slate tonight.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Studs

We basically are walking into the same scenario here on Wednesday where the only news we are waiting on is the status of Eric Bledsoe, who is questionable to play and with that game being first to tip-off, we should have all the news we need on that front.

So the million dollar question today is – what are we doing with James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo?

Giannis was the popular pay up on Monday, at nearly 60% ownership in GPP’s and considering the bump he got with Bledsoe off the court, it made sense to prioritize him as a spend up on the slate.

While Giannis still managed to get 10 boards, 9 assists and just shy of 50 DK points, what stood out to me watching that game was how the Heat forced the ball out of his hands to make him more of a facilitator and that limited him to just 12 shot attempts.

That forced Khris Middleton (24 FGA) and Brook Lopez (10 FGA) to carry the load offensively and with Miami getting a win in Game 1, I am not sure we see the defensive strategy change. Miami post-game talked about the need to “pack the paint” defensively to force Giannis away from the hoop and keep him from getting downhill where he is so dangerous.

So you can play this one of two ways – you can assume Game 1 is replicated and do with the Giannis fade with a Middleton/BroLo leverage that worked in Game 1. Or you can assume that Middleton will not shoot 50%, with Lopez shooting 80% and it pushes Giannis to be more aggressive.

Harden on the other hand was far less popular, coming in at half the ownership for Giannis, sub 30% in the $100k to first GPP on DK, and while he was solid with 51 DK points – it most certainly did not pay off his hefty price tag.

The thing is – everything remains set up for Harden – as he had 20+ FGA, double-digit three pointers and combined for 15 rebounds/assists – so the ceiling remains slate breaking for Harden even with Russell Westbrook back on the court.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Taking a stand

I argued for Stars and Scrubs on Monday and I am a big believer in process over results when it comes to DFS. Writing DFS every day leads you to understand the ebb/flow and where we saw Stars/Scrubs be the winning approach on Saturday/Sunday – it has been the balanced builds that have ruled the day on Monday/Tuesday of this week.

If recency bias is going to push everyone towards the balanced builds or to the game logs from Monday – why not simply stay the course we argued on Monday?

There are no players in NBA DFS that have the ability to win you a slate single handily like Giannis and Harden have and while they can have floor games as they did on Monday – they have unmatched ceilings and if they are on and you opted to fade, well – kiss your night goodbye.

So tonight, take a stand – let’s not assume Giannis is only going to take 12 shots, and that Middleton/Lopez will not combine to shoot 60% from the floor.

In a must-win game, is Harden going to “settle” for just 22 shots or is he going to have a take over game where the fringe guys like Eric Gordon/Robert Covington simply stand around and watch instead of getting 20+ shot attempts of their own as they did in Game 6.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Let’s ride!

So if we go Stars and Scrubs again – I think we follow the same blueprint from Monday by and large.

Going “three deep” with stars led us to argue pairing Giannis/Harden with one of Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo.

Now Butler had the better day on Monday with 53 DK points but that was all driven by a scoring dependent 40 real-life points which included 12-13 from the free-throw line. The Bucks were one of the hardest teams to drive on all season and gave up one of the fewest amounts of fouls/free throws, so was this a one-game anomaly?

Adebayo meanwhile was far more diverse in his peripherals, racking up 17 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals and it is that well-rounded game that makes me far more interested tonight as I would argue he has more paths to value than Butler does.

The value plays tonight are going to be the same cast of characters from Monday – so be prepared for more George Hill chalk if he is going to play 30+ minutes again as the starter.

Pat Connaughton was the first sub off the bench for Milwaukee and more importantly, was on the floor the the final 7-8 minutes of the 4th as he closed the game out with the starters. Patty C has a similar path to that run tonight and if he can hit any sort of shot (he went just 1-5), he has the ability to exceed value easily at just $3.7K on DK.

OKC is going to afford you the same set of plays once again as Lu Dort ($4K) will give you a cheap starting option with a path to 20 DK points and value darling Darius Bazley ($3.9K) remains under $4K despite the fact he has gone for 22+ DK points in 3 of the first 6 games in this series.

Bazley’s ceiling is sky high if he gets offense to go with his peripherals as he managed 24 DK points last game despite the fact he made just ONE shot from the floor.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap Up

Take your stand tonight – we all saw this exact slate play out and if Eric Bledsoe sits again, we are literally staring at the same decisions and by and large, the same price points for the majority of the player pool.

If you want to argue Game 1 was an off night for the stars and they bounce back tonight – then ride that Stars and Scrubs route. If you think Game 1 was an indication of things to come – stay balanced and hope you can repeat the winning formula from Monday.

My biggest piece of advice though – do not overreact.

If your strategy on Monday remains sound in logic and process – stay the course and let others chase the recency bias and game logs.

Let’s jump into Discord and talk strategy today – the small pivots we make can make a massive difference on a two-game slate!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

After back to back NBA DFS slates where the Stars/Scrubs approach carried the day, Monday’s slate reversed course as a more balanced approach took down GPP’s with 320+ DK points by fading the high priced studs like Giannis and Harden who combined for under 100 fantasy points.

Tonight we get another two-game slate with a Game 7 between the Nuggets/Jazz and Game 2 of the second-round series between the Celtics and Raptors.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Decision Point #1

What is interesting about this slate is that we do not have the high dollar superstars like LeBron, Giannis or Harden which typically drive roster decisions and instead we open to a slate with no players above $10K on DraftKings.

That does not mean we lack for ceiling however as the $9K range on this slate has superstar ability with Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic all core plays in arguably the best first round series in the bubble.

Now we might have a little sticker shock on this threesome, considering back in Game 1 of this series that Jamal Murray was just $6.2K but after going for 82, 68 and 68 DK points the last three games to force a Game 7 – well, you can understand why the pricing has reached this level.

The Nuggets to me are basically a two man show – in real life and in DFS – and you ultimately need to decide whether you make Murray/Jokic a core part of your build here today.

This duo has put up 115 DK points per game the last two games, while no other player on Denver has even hit 27 DK points as all the usage and volume is flowing through this duo. Murray and Joker also provide you the rare duo in DFS that positively correlates as superstars – as Murray is the highest positive correlation play alongside Joker, primarily due to the pick and roll they run so well.

To me this slate hinges on this first decision point – if you are playing Denver it needs to start with Murray and Joker – because the fringe plays here have not shown the ability to work as valuable one-offs

Now the reason I think this has to be your first decision point is because if you are locking in both core Denver plays, then you need to run it back with the Jazz and that likely leads you to Donovan Mitchell.

D-Mitch has been a one man wrecking crew for Utah in this series with ceiling games of 82, 66 and 68 DK points and the back and forth between him and Murray has been fascinating to watch.

Mitchell’s fantasy value in those ceiling affairs hinges on his scoring ability as it took 152 real life points to get the 216 DK points in those three games – or put another way – 70% of his DFS output came from scoring.

Now, the Mitchell decision is where I think you have viable pivots – unlike the Denver side. While the Nuggets have proven to be a two man operation, the Jazz have shown that they have other viable pieces we can move to IF we chose to fade Mitchell.

If we take the route of fading Mitchell, you are doing so under the game script guidelines that he does not score 50 real life points and instead the scoring output is pushed to other pieces.

So under that route – I think the obvious pieces then push to Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson. Conley has been a steady cross-category contributor since he re-joined the team and his ability to rack up peripheral stats while also driving double-digit shot attempts makes him a nice pivot off Mitchell here tonight.

Clarkson though is the direct leverage in my opinion, the lone player in this Jazz rotation with a negative correlation to Mitchell – and it makes all the sense in the world – you have two scoring dependent players and only one ball. If Mitchell is dropping 50 points, well then Clarkson is picking up scraps and vice versa.

So if you take the approach of fading Mitchell then I think you need to use Clarkson as your leverage. Think through yesterday’s slate – Giannis had a floor game while Middleton and BroLo had ceiling games. Find the leverage and move there.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Pivots

The “easy” pivot would be to fade the Utah/Denver game which has far more buzz and recency bias and instead look to stack Boston/Toronto but honestly, I am not sure how much of a pivot that will really be.

We have seen over and over again, the first game on these slates get skewed ownership and that was the case on Sunday as guys like Tatum (21%), FVV (25%), Kemba (33%), Theis (43%) saw heavy ownership as examples in the first game of the three game Sunday slate.

Will there be enough of an ownership edge on a two game slate to pivot to the lesser game enviornment?

Since the start of the playoffs – Boston ranks #2 in team defense while Toronto ranks #3 and that is not far off from the regular season where both ranked inside the top 5.

So while I understand the logic of pivoting to this game, if you are not getting a material ownership edge – why move to the far tougher game for scoring?

Instead the “pivot” may be to fade that game entirely and build a game stack of Denver/Utah and hope it gives you a Game 7 for the ages.

If you are fading Mitchell (as I argued), then you can add in fringe plays like Joe Ingles and Royce O’Neale who gives you minutes security and the ability to fill underwhelming forward positions.

The one fringe piece on Denver you could add – is Michael Porter Jr. – and that is really a result of his usage on the court in recent games. While MPJ has not started, he is getting all the closing minutes and we saw in Game 6 he checked in with 5 minutes left in the 3Q and played the entire rest of the game. In Game 5, he checked in with 6:22 left in the 3Q and again – never came off the floor. He racked up 27 DK points in Game 5 and while he only got to 18 fantasy points in Game 6, despite 12 boards, he shot just 1-7 including 0-5 from three, so the ceiling remains there is he can knock down his shots.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap Up

On these two game slates it becomes FAR more strategy than it becomes about the “right plays” and we need to think through this game script strategy when building our lineups.

Do not just click in the players names – think through the game script. So do not put in Mitchell as an example and then throw in Clarkson “because it fits” – the correlation would tell you that is a massive mistake.

Let’s jump into Discord and talk strategy today – the small pivots we make can make a massive difference on a two-game slate!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Looking back at the last two days we have seen similar trends and roster builds in NBA DFS contests that have set cash lines and ultimately taken down the big GPP’s on DraftKings.

The winning line-up on Saturday scored 330 DK points jamming in LeBron, Giannis and McCollum and a whole lot of Portland/Laker value (4 guys under $4K) and faded the OKC/Houston game which ended up being the blow-out game.

Last night, the winning line-up ticked up to 347 DK points but with a similar Stars/Scrubs approach as the winning build had Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell and Kawhi Leonard – going then with five value plays including Daniel Theis, Marc Gasol, Reggie Jackson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Ivaca Zubac.

So is the winning formula in these NBA playoffs now to anchor to stars and scrubs with three ceiling players in our builds?

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Stars

Today we have just two games – both with similar 225 totals and 5 point spreads with the line difference is we have the “known” in the Rockets/OKC versus the unknown in a new series with the Bucks/Heat. I bring this up because with new series, brings new rotations and we saw that yesterday with Enes Kanter who was glued to the bench as the Celtics opted to use Robert Williams as their second unit big despite using Kanter in the first round.

If we want to explore a similar Stars and Scrubs build today – then the obvious place to start is with the high-priced duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.4K) and James Harden ($11.3K).

Harden is the “known” commodity in this series against OKC as Houston tried to close out the first round but his role is very much unknown as this could be the first game in the series where he plays alongside Russell Westbrook for meaningful minutes. Westbrook was on a near 25 minute cap last game and Harden played just 28 minutes due to a massive blowout.

What intrigues me about Harden is the continued low ownership as he was just 20% owned in GPP’s on Saturday and with his price ticking down just $100, will folks continue to stay away as Westbrook’s minutes ramp up?

Giannis meanwhile was churning out 60 DK point outings on the regular against the Magic in the first round and with some injury news on Milwaukee, it could push even more on to his plate here against Miami in Game One.

The big injury news we have to watch today is Eric Bledsoe who popped up with a Q Tag due to a hamstring injury which could end up being the key to this whole slate – as it would have a massive impact on the Bucks stars and introduce a whole ton of value (but more on that in a second).

This season, with Bledsoe off the court, the big winner has been Khris Middleton ($7.9K) who sees a whopping 5% usage bump and gets 6 more FP per 36 minutes. Giannis meanwhile sees a 2% usage boost and put up 70+ DK points in 3 of the 8 games Bledsoe missed this season.

Not only does the Bledsoe news have a positive impact on Giannis and tick his ceiling already that much higher – but it also open up the value we need to build around the stars – hence why I feel it holds the key to the slate.

The simple reality is – Harden and Giannis on a two game slate are likely the two raw point scoring leaders and if they have the kind of 60-70 point fantasy outings we have grown accustomed to – they alone will set the cash line.

We have seen the last two days that the cash line has been sub 300 DK points and I do not expect that to change on just a two game slate here tonight – so the reality is we don’t need to focus as much on 6x-7x value – but we need to find a path to raw points and that is going to start and end with the two highest priced players on the slate.

Locking in both Giannis/Harden will mean you have $4.5K per player for the rest of your build but it also gives you a realistic path to getting 150 fantasy points from just two guys and then it becomes all about how you fill in the rest of your builds.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Next Level:

I mentioned the last two slates it has been three stars anchoring the winning builds so even with Harden/Giannis in our line-ups – it means stepping down to the next level (before we go dumpster diving) to find our third piece – the Chris Bosh to our LeBron/Wade if you will.

We mentioned Khris Middleton already but if I am rolling out Giannis, I want him to get a ceiling game and he has neutral to slightly negative correlation with Middleton.

For slightly cheaper – we can go Bam Adebayo ($7.7K) who put up 45 and 49 DK points in the two pre-bubble games against the Bucks this season and will get the same interior match-up we just saw Nikola Vucevic exploit for massive games.

We saw it repeatedly with Vuc in that first round as he went for 50+ DK points in 4 of the 5 games against Milwaukee with double/double games and with Bam already showing he has hit 6x upside in this match-up earier this season, I think he has profit potential left at this price and helps you lock down your Center position on DK.

If you want to pivot off Bam – I would stay in the same range and move to Jimmy Butler ($8.1K) to give you a correlation with Giannis. Butler did not have the same success in this match-up that Bam had during the regular season with 38 DK points in his lone regular-season meeting but we saw against Indiana that his 48-50 point ability was on display and I think you can make the argument for either of this Heat pieces as your third piece in.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Scrubs:

Now going with Harden/Giannis and adding in Bam/Butler puts you under $4K remaining on DK for the last 5 spots in your build – a similar spot to what the winning line-ups have replicated the last two nights.

So let’s just run through some options quickly:

George Hill ($4.2K) would likely step into a starting role if Bledsoe were to miss this game and we saw back in December in an 8 game stretch Bledsoe was sidelined, Hill went for 27+ DK points in 3 of those games which would return 6.4x value at this price point.

Donte DiVincenzo ($3.4K) is another player that could step into major minutes if Bledsoe were to miss and he had similar success during that December run without Bledsoe – putting up 21 or more DK points in 7 of the 8 games that Bledsoe was out. In fact during that stretch he averaged 26 DK points, which would exceed 7.6x value at his price point today.

The Miami side of this game also has a ton of value – with a few names that I think we could play interchangeably.

Andre Igoudala ($3.5K) and his G/F eligibility on DK becomes a really nice piece to use in filling out rosters because we know a few things – he has 25+ minutes certainty on this Miami team which is hard to find at this price point and I would argue the minutes could tick up as they use Iggy to help guard Giannis all series long.

We saw against the Magic, the best way to attack the Bucks was from the three point line and this is where I think you start to mix and match value pieces from Miami.

The way Vuc was able to get those big outings is stepping out and draining threes and while Bam may not have that ability – you know who does? Kelly Olynk ($3.9K).

Kelly O under $4K could be the type of GPP value play that breaks the slate for you and I think if you go this route, it makes more sense to pair him with Butler than Bam from a correlation perspective.

I mentioned this game last game in our Discord as a high ceiling GPP punt and boy, did Darius Bazley pay off with 30 DK points in a blowout affair. Now Bazley has already flashed this upside with 22 DK points in Game 1 of the series so the fact he has shown you 6x ability twice in this series should make you feel comfortable using him in any game script.

The key in tournaments is taking shots on punts that can break the slate and that is why guys like Bazley/Kelly O are really intriguing.

Now there is nothing wrong with the steady presence of guys like Iggy/George Hill but when you are living in this punt range for tournaments – take shots on upside and I think we have guys here today that could be difference makers.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up

Are you ready to go Stars and Scrubs again today? This piece has been working and I think we have paths to re-creating it here again today.

The key is watching the Bledsoe news but honestly, I think with Miami and guys like Bazley in OKC – we have other paths to punt that do not require you to simply hinge the day on Bledsoe’s hammy.

Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops – we are going to need to be flexible today as we wait on news. Build your core and wait to find the value we can plug and play!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Looking back at yesterday, we argued about taking a stand – playing blowout angles and stacking the close games with the stars and that is exactly what took down the $100K GPP on DK.

Well – the idea did anyways.

The winning line-up scored 330 DK points jamming in LeBron, Giannis and McCollum and a whole lot of Portland/Laker value (4 guys under $4K) and faded the OKC/Houston game which ended up being the blow-out game.

While I was all about fading Lakers/Bucks and stacking Houston (which back-fired) – the logic we laid out is important because you can see how drawing a line and fading spots that underperform is how you get to the top.

Today, the slate is setting up in much of the same way in that Vegas is telling us we have one game that stands out and if we can get it right – we could be staring at a big pay day.

The Clippers/Mavericks have a 238 total which is a whopping 20 points higher than either Boston/Toronto or Utah/Denver but the rub is that the other games have just 2 point spreads while Dallas is a 10 point dog.

So how do we play this?

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Where to stack?

The Clippers/Mavericks is the key to unlocking this slate as we have the star power to set cash lines, a ton of value due to injury but as we saw in Game 5 – massive blowout risk that could leave you on the outside looking in.

The Mavericks injury report is – well – lengthy. We already know Kristaps Porzingis is out while all of Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke and Dorian Finney-Smith are questionable.

Now Burke and DFS had similar injury designation heading into last game and played so I would assume that trend continues but the new injury to THJ is the one we need to watch as it would essentially remove the top two offensive usage plays alongside Luka.

On the season, with KP and THJ off the court, Doncic sees a 3% usage boost as he sports a 40% usage rate with 60 FP per 36 minutes of court time. Now the price on Luka is high at $11.2K on DK and considering he has been held under 50 DK points in 3 of the 5 games in this series may be a reason to argue the fade BUT this is also a player that if given full run can drop the 70+ DK point game that sets the cash line and is a staple in optimal builds.

Now if you are playing Luka, you are banking on that ceiling game much like you saw last night from LeBron James. And if you are getting a full run ceiling game on the Dallas side – it makes sense to run it back with the Clippers stars in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.

Kawhi has been as steady as any player in the playoffs with 50+ fantasy points games in every game of this series and we finally saw PG13 get his shot to fall in Game 5 after some serious struggles for ole Playoff P.

I go back to the winning line-up last night – where it had LeBron (71), Giannis (57) and McCollum (55) that drove 183 of the 327 fantasy points (55%) in an extreme stars and scrubs build.

Can you not see a similar path tonight with Luka/Kawhi/PG13 all having ceiling games and then hitting on the $4K/per player value in the rest of your build?

If you opt to go this Stars/Scrubs route then you have the luxury of staying right in this game with KP being out and even more so if THJ is forced to miss as the trio of Trey Burke, Seth Curry and Delon Wright would likely all see substantial court time.

Burke/Curry played 37 and 31 minutes in the Game 4 OT thriller that KP missed while Wright did not see the floor in that game – so it is likely that THJ would have to miss to make Delon playable but Burke/Curry seem like 30+ minute locks at sub $5K pricing.

Outside of the guards we have many of the usual suspects including Boban ($4K) and Reggie Jackson ($3.8K) who is another player we need to watch as Patrick Beverley was upgraded to questionable. If Pat Bev is out, R Jax would be an elite value again as he has put up 23 and 26 DK points the last two games, which would return 6x value.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up

I love the idea of going Stars and Scrubs today with Luka/Kawhi/PG13 and by doing so it means we need 5 plays in the $4K range on DK to make it work.

Trey Burke is likely player #1 on my list before we have news but we still need more – however I think we need to get some clarity on THJ and the Mavericks Q tags before we can just lock and load.

I am interested to see what line-up the Nuggets use today as they could present an interesting value in the late-night hammer. Denver opted to close with Michael Porter Jr. and PJ Dozier in the last game as they checked in mid-way through the 3rd quarter and never came back out. Dozier at just $3.1K on DK could be a guy you keep in your punt player pool as a pivot off Dallas if the news does not break how we want it to.

Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops – we are going to need to be flexible today as we wait on news. Build your core and wait to find the value we can plug and play!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Welcome to Wednesday – oh wait, this is now Saturday’s slate – which was originally Wednesday’s slate but then it wasn’t. So ok, hold on.

After a historic day in sports in Wednesday that began with the Milwaukee Bucks refusing to take the court in protest of ongoing social justice issue in America, there was the potential that the NBA season would have been over as quickly as it re-started. Thankfully for us DFS players, the season is back on and Saturday we re-start with the same three games we initially had on Wednesday.

The Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers have a chance to close out their first-round series against the short-handed Magic and Blazers respectively while the biggest change is that Russell Westbrook will be back for Houston in their 2-2 series against OKC.

The big news heading into this slate is that Damian Lillard will miss whatever remains of Portland’s season which puts the Blazers in a difficult spot as they try and defeat LeBron and AD.

What you notice today is we have two of the three games sporting two touchdown spreads as both the Bucks and Lakers are expected to win and win big and we have seen it all playoffs on these small slates – blowouts can derail your DFS night in a hurry.

So I think the approach for these games is simple – you either stack or stay away.

If you think Portland can keep it close, you take the core of CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and company and you run it back with a superstar on the other side like LeBron James in the hopes you get full run and ceiling games from both sides.

The same goes in Milwaukee – if you want Giannis Antetokounmpo then you can pair him with Nikola Vucevic and hope that the Magic can continue to compete as they have been, keeping Giannis on the court for his full minutes. The Magic have been able to keep these games competitive despite being short-handed so I think yo can continue to roll out value pieces like Gary Clark, DJ Augustin and Terrence Ross as cheap fliers that all have shown 6x upside at their current price in this series.

For what it is worth – on Wednesday, when this first game locked on DK – there was heavy ownership on Giannis and the value plays in this game, so I wonder if that trend continues today.

The other way to approach this – take the pieces from these games that are game-script proof only. The best example of that is Anfernee Simons who will likely draw the start for Portland with Dame sidelined and as we saw in Game 4, he got all the blowout run as well, checking in for Dame mid-way through the third quarter and playing the entire fourth quarter. Simons has started four games this season with Dame out, going for 6x in 2 of those 4 games at his price of $4K tonight on DK and makes for one of the safer value plays on the slate.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Game Stack?

We know what to expect largely in Orlando/Milwaukee and with it being the first game, I can absolutely see the ownership being heavy on that game while the Lakers/Portland will be a popular spot for value.

However, my approach it to game stack the Houston-OKC game – the one with the highest total (226.5) and the closest spread (5) and hope the other games simply blowout/underwhelm.

The return of Westbrook to the court will likely push ownership away from James Harden ($11.4K) which is intriguing considering that his ownership was sub 20% on three-game slates WITHOUT Westbrook alongside him. So what happens today? If Harden was 15% owned in GPP play the last slate at $11.7K without Westbrook – the fact his price remains high and Westbrook is back on the court – could we actually see it drop to single digits?

The regular season match-ups against OKC with Westbrook on the court give you more argument for the fade as he was only able to get to 52 and 58 fantasy points which would not pay off this price tag today.

So the likely path by the masses today in my opinion will be to have lower ownership on Harden and I think that extends as well to Russell Westbrook ($9.9K) who is priced up and there are rumors of a minute limit.

That to me is where this gets interesting because if you are not playing Harden or Westbrook, there is not really anything else on Houston you are going to prioritize – meaning this team could be largely under-owned.

So on a three game slate, why not zig when everyone zags and stack up Harden/Westbrook together?

In the two previous games against OKC – this duo combined for an average of 116 fantasy points per game which would put them right around 5.5x value with today’s pricing. Just for comparison sake – the likely more popular pairing will be Giannis/Vuc at a similar price point on DK – and those two have averaged 107 fantasy points per game in this series so far.

So the point is – if Harden/Westbrook are going to be pivots rather than core plays (which I think is very likely) – can you not see a path where they outscore the other high dollar pairings?

Now if you are going this route in GPP’s you are going to likely want a game stack so you get full run and the highest ceiling possible from the stars you are banking on.

On the OKC side – I think that starts with Shai Gilgeous Alexander and Dennis Schroder. SGA at $7.4K feels like a mis-price considering he has gone for 44 DK points or more in each of the last three games which puts his average performance right at 6x value at tonight’s price.

The secondary pieces here are going to be where I think you get different from where you may have been in previous games of this series as the addition of Westbrook completely removes guys like Eric Gordon from my player pool. Instead, I would look to get correlation exposure on Houston and the only two players that have positive correlation with Harden/Westbrook are Robert Covington and PJ Tucker.

Guys like Tucker on Houston and Lou Dort on OKC are great ways to get cheap exposure to this game as both players are locked into 30+ minutes and at just $4K a piece, offer you easy secondary stacking spots around the higher priced priority plays.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up

As long as we do not get any official word from the Rockets on a hard minutes cap for Westbrook (the latest is that he would be “good to go”) – then I love the idea of using him right out of the gate and stacking this game with a core of Harden/Westbrook/SGA and Schroder.

Now that core means you have just $3.7K left for the rest of your build and even with cheapies like Tucker/Dort – you are going to be scraping the barrell.

It is risky – but in my mind – you are taking a stand that the other two games under perform and potentially blow out and you are left with the only game that gives you full run.

Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

We head into Wednesday’s three game slate where both the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers have a chance to close out their first round series against the short-handed Magic and Blazers respectively.

The big news heading into this slate is that Damian Lillard will miss this game (and likely more) which puts the Blazers in a a difficult spot as they try and defeat LeBron and AD.

What you notice tonight is we have two of the three games sporting two touchdown spreads as both the Bucks and Lakers are expected to win and win big and we saw it as recently as last night in Dallas – blowouts can derail your DFS night in a hurry.

So I think the approach for these games is simple – you either stack or stay away.

If you think Portland can keep it close, you take the core of CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and company and you run it back with a superstar on the other side like LeBron James in the hopes you get full run and ceiling games from both sides.

The same goes in Milwaukee – if you want Giannis Antetokounmpo then you can pair him with Nikola Vucevic and hope that the Magic can continue to compete as they have been, keeping Giannis on the court for his full minutes. The Magic have been able to keep these games competitive despite being short-handed so I think yo can continue to roll out value pieces like Gary Clark, DJ Augustin and Terrence Ross as cheap fliers that all have shown 6x upside at their current price in this series.

The other way to approach this – take the pieces from these games that are game-script proof only. The best example of that is Anfernee Simons who will likely draw the start for Portland with Dame sidelined and as we saw in Game 4, he got all the blowout run as well, checking in for Dame mid-way through the third quarter and playing the entire fourth quarter. Simons has started four games this season with Dame out, going for 6x in 2 of those 4 games at his price of $4K tonight on DK and makes for one of the safer value plays on the slate.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Game Stack?

So now where does this leave us? Much as I argued on Tuesday, there is merit to stacking the lower total game you expect to stay close and tonight that is OKC-Houston.

While this game may lack the flashy Vegas totals, it gives us a game environment that we expect to stay close throughout and two teams with clearly defined and tight rotations – and that stability breeds value for DFS in the playoffs.

Let’s not bury the lead here, this game and I would argue – this slate all starts once again with James Harden for as long as Russell Westbrook remains out. It has been fascinating to me to watch game after game go by and Harden’s ownership continues to free fall – setting in at 15-20% last game.

The fact we are getting Harden on 3-4 game slates at this kind of ownership when we have a massive amount of data to know his value when he is the lone star left standing in Houston is mind-blowing and those who faded him last game were reminded of that with his 74 fantasy point outing. His price has only gone up $100 from that game and I would argue tonight, he is the lock and load foundation you start your builds with.

The Rockets continue to play one of the most consistent;y tight rotations in these playoffs – with 6 guys playing 30+ minutes in Game 4. When trying to find the complimentary pieces around Harden, my preference is to surround him with the players that are less scoring dependent and have higher correlation.

Eric Gordon is an interesting case – as if I took out the name of the player and told you that you can get a player who since the playoffs started ranks top 10 in the NBA in both usage and shot attempts per game AND you can get him for just $6K on DraftKings – wouldn’t you just hit the lock button?

The other names on that list? Harden, Giannis, Vuc, Kawhi, Donovan Mitchell and Luka – thats it – that is the list. Imagine getting those guys for $6K?

Now Gordon is almost entirely scoring dependent which presents a challenge when your teammate is shooting the ball 30 times a game, but if you look at the substitution patterns, Gordon always checks out near the end of Harden’s “shift” and checks back in for him so he can run the offense when Harden is out. It is a little nuance, but that stretch alone could push him into elite value at this price tage.

Guys like Robert Covington, Jeff Green and PJ Tucker all make for great correlation pieces around Harden/Gordon as they can get you DFS points without needing the ball.

Covington to me is the one that stands out on DK, as his price as dropped all the way to $5.7K, which is way down from the $6.5K it started at in Game 1 of this series. The minutes for him in Game 4 at 34 where the highest of any game in the series and his ability to rack up peripheral stats alongside Harden makes for an ideal correlation.

The OKC side of this game is going to be very guard heavy with Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder all standing out as great plays in the back-court. OKC has committed these last two games to matching the Rockets small ball line-up and it has resulted in two wins so I do not expect the strategy to change as this trio has been closing out games alongside Lugentz Dort and Danilo Gallinari.

SGA at $7.4K feels like a mis-price considering he has gone for 44 DK points or more in each of the last three games which puts his average performance right at 6x value at tonight’s price.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up

With two games that have the potential for blowouts tonight, I think we need to take stands and either full on stack or fade those games outside of the game-script proof value types.

It leads me, much like it did on Tuesday, to game stack the spot I think will be competitive throughout with teams that have a proven track record of leaning on their core guys for big minutes in these playoffs. So locking in multiple Rockets, with Harden priority #1, alongside a few OKC pieces – gives you a build that may afford you the safer floor versus the risky ceiling of stacking up a game like Portland/LA that could see its star players sitting by the second half.

Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

Big thank you to Adam Strangis for covering Picks and Pivots for me the last two weeks while I was on vacation and driving some big time wins for our team at Win Daily!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Well, glad my first slate back is the first two game slate of the NBA playoffs as a result of the Raptors and Celtics sweeping their way through the first round!

We have EARLY confirmation that Kristaps Porzingis is OUT and with that – we have the big news we needed that changes the slate entirely.

First and foremost – on a two game slate with no KP – you lock in Luka Doncic and move on. Luka without KP in many ways is like Harden when Westbrook is out as we see the usage and FP increase and on a small slate, the raw points of Luka become a building block.

It also now pushes all the Dallas value into the forefront with the additional news that Dorian Finney-Smith is also questionable. You are going to have multiple viable options for value from Dallas now including Tim Hardaway Jr, Trey Burke, Maxi Kleber, Seth Curry and BOBAN!

In the previous game with KP sidelined, the volume was heavily concentrated outside of Luka with THJ (18 FGA) and Trey Burke(14 FGA) being the only other usage/volume options from the Mavericks.

My take here is that you likely only want one of these types alongside Luka if you are stacking because their fantasy value will largely be tied to their volume scoring. It is unlikely that you can get ceiling games from all of these guys alongside Luka since they are scoring dependent and there is only one ball to go around.

The “pivot” option within this stack is to put the non-scoring dependent players from Dallas alongside Luka – guys like Boban, Kleber and MKG (if DFS is out). This way you are getting guys who can get to value in other ways with the theory that Luka dominates the scoring and popular plays like Burke/THJ do not shoot 56% from the floor as they did last game.

Now the other side of this news is that in order to get a ceiling game from Luka, you need him to play the full game and that means a close game throughout which means running it back with Clippers like Kawhi, PG13, LouWill and Reggie Jackson.

Watching Game 4, remember that the Clippers were up 10 on Dallas at the end of the first and it took some crazy hot shooting from Burke/THJ to keep Dallas close. The only reason we got the ceiling games from Luka that we did was because this game stayed close – so if you assume that is the case again you want to run back with the Clippers stars so we get the highest degree of correlation possible.

Because of the value that now exists on Dallas – you can game stack Kawhi/PG13/Luka with ease – leaving you with over $4.1K/per player on DK for the remaining spots and that is more than doable with the value guys we have listed out.

What this news also does – is makes the Jazz-Nuggets game the clear lower owned pivot as the ownership rightfully so will flock to LAC/Dallas. So there is an argument – if Dallas/LAC is the chalky game stack and your cash position could simply be determined by whether you pick correctly on Trey Burke versus Tim Hardaway Jr. – do you have more leverage just fading that game entirely?

Remember it is a two game GPP slate – you have to think differently somehow.

The Nuggets opted to change their starting line-up prior to last game, moving Monte Morris and Jerami Grant into the starting unit over MPJ and Torrey Craig. One of the biggest things this did, and we talked about it in Discord prior to tip-off, is it took Craig’s defense off the floor which as proven to be a massive boost to Donovan Mitchell.

Mitchell went absolutely bonkers in Game 1 of this series with Craig in foul trouble, putting up 81 DK points on 57 actual points and in Game 4 and he absolutely destroyed Denver again with 51 actual points and 67 DK points.

If Craig remains out of the starting unit again, Mitchell stands out once again as a high ceiling play as he has proven he can get every and anything he wants against the other Nuggets defenders – putting up 27 and 33 FGA in the two games Craig did not get the individual assignment.

The fact that Mitchell is priced just below Luka/Kawhi could make him the low-owned pivot and he has shown already in this series he has slate leading ability which makes him a great building block for GPP’s.

If you play Mitchell – running it back with Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic with their season on the line makes all the sense in the world as this duo was responsible for 55 of the team’s 100 FGA in Game 4.

Murray has not been priced over $7.2K yet in this series but his 80 burger last game has pushed his price to $8K on DK and that sticker shock may lead folks into other areas however he has shown us the highest ceiling of any Denver starter and that includes The Joker who has failed to hit 6X in any of the first four games of this series..

On a slate with weak Forward options – the value of Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant becomes viable with the duo right at $5K each on DK, after they played 35 and 36 minutes apiece in Game 4. It was a turn back the clock kind of performance for Millsap, who dropped 35 DK points, good for 7x value at this price, and that will likely make him popular option on a slate that could quickly lose its value if Porzingis does play.

There could be an argument to play the entire starting five for Denver here tonight including Monte Morris at $4K and that is driven largely by how this unit was deployed in Game 4. Denver ran essentially a 7 man rotation with every member of the starting 5 playing 35+ minutes – so the fact you can get guys like Morris, Millsap and Grant all at $5K or under – with that kind of minutes security – could pay big dividends especially if the Dallas value at similar prices gets zapped by KP being active.

While Mitchell is the key piece for Utah – there are other viable plays we can use in a game stack including the two best correlation plays from Utah – Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley.

Gobert does not get the usage of a Jokic but that is perfectly fine if we use Mitchell – as we want D-Mitch to get ALL the shot attempts and let Rudy get his fantasy production from rebounds, blocks and easy put backs. Dollar for dollar – I think Gobert may actually be the best PP/$ Center in this game.

Conley meanwhile has stepped right back into his role alongside Mitchell and has put up 38 and 39 DK points in the first two games back which put him on track to hit 6X if we start to see the assist numbers tick up (just 4 per game).

Outside of this trio it is really hard to argue strongly for Joe Ingles or Royce O’Neale who have seen their roles essentially drop off the cliff since Conley has been back. Both players have shot the ball just SIX times combined the past two games so while the prices seem fair at weak forward positions – you really need to get a wildly different game script or some crazy peripherals to see them hit value.

Much like we mentioned for Denver – Utah played an incredibly tight rotation in Game 4, as every single starter played 30+ mins, with Jordan Clarkson being the only meaningful bench contributor. So there is a path here to game stack this game with players we know all have 30+ minute security.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up

So how do you want to play this today?

The clear path is to stack Dallas and LAC. There are stars with slate breaking ceilings alongside value options with 30+ minute routes galore and frankly its the “right” path by all metrics.

However we have seen time and time again in these playoffs that blowouts happen and they change the slate.

Go back to Game 4 – what if Trey Burke and THJ don’t shoot out of their minds in the 2nd quarter to bring Dallas back into that game? Do the Clippers build a huge lead and we see Dallas give Luka a rest on a gimpy ankle?

I do not want to project blowouts by any means but is it so crazy to think Dallas could have a let down tonight with a short-handed squad? There is a reason the spread on this game has gone from 6 to 8 points with the KP news. If LAC gets out in front and Dallas cannot hit the shots with the same efficiency – could it be like the heavily owned Portland/Lakers game last night that underwhelmed and set the cash line far lower?

Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

We head into the final days of the NBA regular season in the bubble and each and every slate we are finding more and more teams resting players as they clinch their postseason positions which is making figuring out rotations a tougher task each and every day.

Today we already know the Mavericks will be without both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, the Nuggets remain without both Gary Harris and Will Barton and with Q tags next to guys like Donovan Mitchell, Steven Adams and TJ Warren – well, today is going to be no different.

For the most part, the rest of the regular season is going to be about seeding for these remaining teams with the exception coming at the bottom of the Western Conference where we have 4 teams withing 1.5 games of the #8 seed and with a play-in tournament added this year if the #8 seed is less than 4 games ahead for the last spot – well, this is setting up for a wild ride for those final teams.

The Phoenix Suns are one of those teams, 1.5 games behind Memphis entering play as they have gone undefeated in bubble play. Today they take on Oklahoma City who is on the tail end of a B2B after playing the Wizards on Sunday.

I mentioned this on Friday with the Suns, but this is a team playing at a top 10 pace since the re-start and on top of that, they are running a tight rotation that is condensed around their starting unit – all that, and the need to win – makes them an appealing core for NBA DFS purposes.

The rub is that OKC happens to be one of the best defensive teams since re-entering the bubble, ranking 2nd in Def-Rtg behind only the Toronto Raptors. At this point however, I think finding teams with a reason to play is going to outweigh DvP and that leads me to start my builds today with Devin Booker ($8.7K) and DeAndre Ayton ($8K).

Booker has now put up 20 ore more FGA in every game but one since his return to the bubble and that volume plus his 33.5% usage rate, which ranks behind only Giannis and Zion since the re-start, puts him at the top of my player pool today.

Ayton is an interesting case today as the DvP would say this is a poor match-up but with the Thunder playing without Steven Adams AND Nerlens Noel yesterday, this could end up becoming a wildly different match-up. The fact that Adams was in, then out, leaves me to think hes likely to play here today but we will have to watch for news leading up to lock.

For all the reasons you are playing Booker, you can argue for Ayton as he has played 35+ minutes in every single game except the one where he had foul trouble against Dallas, so we know the minutes security will be there and with 49 DK points in 2 of his last 5 games, he has already shown us his 6x upside at this price point.

On the other side of this game, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander ($7K) could be a fascinating GPP pivot after burning the DFS community time and time again. SGA has not eclipsed 40 DK points in any game but yet his price has risen from $6K to $6.7K to $6.8K on Friday and now he is at $7K. I do wonder if the price increase and the game log watchers who have been burned will stay away here.

What I love about guys like SGA for DFS purposes is that he has the ability to rack up peripherals even when his shot is not falling. We saw it against the Lakers where he shot just 3 for 11, but still managed 37 DK points as a result of 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals. The ceiling for SGA can be massive when he puts together a total game and with my core being around Booker/Ayton – I love the idea of having some run back with OKC, especially if SGA is under-owned.

One guy we were on in Discord on Friday against Memphis was Darius Bazley ($3.3K) as a pivot off chalky Nerlens Noel and he delivered with 23 DK points at $3K. Yesterday he played 26 minutes and racked up 37 DK points with both Adams and Noel out – and if we get similar circumstances today, we need to have some of the athletic big man in our pool.

There is an argument today to front-load your builds, as we have the “better” actual basketball games later in the slate but the better DFS environments could be the two early games as we get a short-handed Dallas team against a potentially short-handed Jazz squad at 3PM EST.

For the Win Daily family that may be new to me and Picks and Pivots, I have a problem – and the only solution is more THJ. That is Tim Hardaway Jr.

I have not played THJ yet this re-start, but today with BOTH Luka and KP out, now is the time to fire up some THJ at just $5.6K.

The last time both these stars for Dallas sat out was February 22nd against the Hawks and THJ did what he does in those scenarios – shot the ball 22 times, led the team with 33% usage and dropped 48 DK points.

For those of you new to THJ Day – you lock him in when he is going to be the #1 scoring option and can drive all the usage – which is key for him as a volume scorer. There are crazy highs/lows anytime you roster a scoring dependent player so understand the variance that can exist, but at this price point – I am more than willing to lock in my favorite player in the NBA.

The rest of Dallas could end up being a value bonanza and while we do not have a ton of spend ups, the sheer minutes that we could get for punts like Trey Burke and Maxi Kleber make them appealing PP/$ plays that could easily 10x their price today.

Utah will be interesting as they are coming off a double-OT thriller which now has Donovan Mitchell with a Q tag heading into today. If Mitchell were to sit, I would have a lot of interest in Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley who are priced in the $6-$7K range on DK and get the benefit of a Dallas team with no interior defense to speak of. The only real “concern” here would be Utah blows the doors off Dallas and sits their veterans so using them within a game stack may be your best approach.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up

Today is all about value – and yet, we have no real stars to pay up for.

One approach could be to go more balanced, ignoring the punt value that we have already in Dallas and could have in multiple other spots.

The other approach could be to overpay for players who may get over-looked – so someone like SGA or Chris Paul who is over $8K. Neither play has come close to paying off their price tags but if these kind of guys are under-owned, do we play the game theory and take shots on them in our roster construction since it is so easy to fit them?

This will be my last NBA DFS column for the regular season but don’t worry – my dud Adam Strangis will be rocking Picks and Pivots for me the rest of the year. Let’s go out with a THJ day my friends!

Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Welcome back NBA DFS fans to a full day of NBA bubble action on Saturday as we have five games that are spread out on the Main Slate which kicks off at 1 PM EST and concludes with an 8:30 match-up between the Bucks/Mavs.

This slate most certainly does not lack for star power with Giannis, Luka, LeBron and AD all on it – but at this point in the re-start, there are real concerns as DFS players over which players are still going to give us full run.

You know which star we don’t have to worry about? Damian Lillard ($10K).

Portland is now just one game back of the #8 seed in the West and Dame is literally playing ALL the minutes he can handle right now as he tries to carry his team into the post-season. Dame has played 40+ minutes in every single game of this re-start and has shot the ball 20+ times per game with DFS ceiling games of 60 and 80 points in that four game sample.

Anytime you can get a player this late in the season with something to play for, this much court time and a slate leading type ceiling – you just play him. It is that simple.

If there is one game that really catches my eye as a potential stack today – it is Miami and Phoenix. The Suns have been scorching hot (haha see what I did there) since the re-start, winning all 4 games inside the bubble and now sitting just 2.5 games back of Memphis with 4 to play.

The Suns have also increased their pace since the re-start, playing at a top 5 pace in the NBA and pushing more than two possessions per game more than their pre-COVID regular-season average. Their opponent today, the Miami Heat, will be down Jimmy Butler, Kendrick Nunn and potentially Goran Dragic and we have seen the Heat perform as one of the lowest-rated defensive teams in the games since Butler has been sidelined. So fast pace and bad opposing defense you say?

The Suns are leaning on their trio of Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton and Cameron Johnson from both a minute per game perspective and a usage/volume perspective. Booker is the lead-dog here with a 33% usage rate but it has actually been Ayton with the higher ceiling relative his price with two games at 50 FP which would return 6.3x value at today’s price of just $7.6K on DK.

Cam Johnson meanwhile makes for an intriguing correlation with Booker/Ayton because he doesn’t require shot volume to hit his value, as his as used peripheral stats to go 6x in two of his last three games.

Lastly, Cameron Payne ($3.6K) has gone for 6x in every single game since we re-started the season and to get that kind of consistency from a punt is rare in DFS.

If you are going Suns heavy, I do think a run back with Miami makes sense and with all the injuries – we are going to have tons of value with guys like Tyler Herro and Kelly Olynyk who have been popular Win Daily targets the last week.

The guy I want today though is Bam Adebayo ($7.4K). Bam is a guy who was priced at $9K or higher before COVID hit, and we have seen his price drop now to a level, especially with all these injuries, that I simply cannot pass on.

The minutes have been volatile for Bam and I hope that keeps the game log watchers off him, because when he has played 30+ minutes as he did against Boston, he would get you 6x value at this price tag. If you are loading up on Suns and assuming this game plays fast and stays close, Bam is the ceiling run back that may get over-looked as everyone plays the cheap Heat value instead.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up

To me this slate is all about Dame as a cornerstone in my builds and looking to find game stacks around him as a one-off.

If you step back and think about this slate – we have some potential ugly games with cloudy rotations – so this could be about playing game theory more than it is about the plays itself.

Are LeBron/AD and Luka/Giannis the best plays on the slate? Sure, but do we think they play normal minutes? Will the Jazz get their starters back on the floor and how will that impact Michael Porter Jr. who has 3 straight 50+ fantasy games.

To me, the two teams with the most to play for today are the Blazers and Suns and I think anchoring around them gives you the clearest path to a roster build that is balanced price wise and gives you multiple pieces with 50+ fantasy point upside.

Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Last night’s NBA DFS slate was the quintessential late-season NBA slate – we had stars sitting out, all the punt value we could possibly want and we saw Stars and Scrubs builds pushing near 400 DK points at the top of GPP’s as Harden/Lillard builds were easily attainable with the plethora of value the slate offered us.

The one big difference in this slate tonight is we lack the superstar power at the top end, as the only high-dollar investment is Joel Embiid ($10.5K). As a result, starting builds with Embiid makes a ton of sense on this slate especially with Philly being without Ben Simmons for the forseeable future.

On the season, Embiid has put up 1.7 FP/M with Simmons off the floor and in five games that Simmons missed in the regular season, Embiid put up 70+ in two of those games – and that is the exact ceiling type performance you are looking for today against the Magic.

Where we are now seeing teams resting players, we also have to keep an eye on the standings as we are getting very close to teams being mathematically eliminated – especially out West where the Kings/Pelicans are hanging on by a thread at this point, 3 games out of the #8 seed.

This could be the last gasp effort for both teams today and the match-ups with the Nets and Wizards respectively could not be better.

On the Kings side, De’Aaron Fox ($7.6K) stands out as a player with a massive ceiling in an elite match-up that could have 7x upside at this price point on DK. Since the re-start, Fox has been a usage beast, sporting a 34% usage rate for the Kings and has put up 49, 55 and 57 DK points in 3 of his 4 games which would return 6.4x value and more with his price tonight.The usage and the shot volume have been through the roof, with 21, 27 and 33 FGA in those 3 games and with the Kings looking to stay in the playoff picture – this could be another ceiling game for the Kings star.

On the other side of this game, Caris LeVert ($7.1K) is sitting at his lowest price since the re-start and his 33% usage rate, not surprisingly leads the team in Brooklyn. With Jarrett Allen and Joe Harris questionable, this could become even more of the LeVert show and a 1v1 pairing of LeVert/Fox in this game could pay big dividends.

The other early game that stands out to me is Memphis/OKC as the Grizzlies find themselves just a 1/2 game up on Portland for the final spot in the West after the Blazers win on Thursday.

Ja Morant ($8.5K) has basically been a 45-48 FP/G game player since the re-start so there is a solid floor here and that lack of ceiling has kept his ownership suppressed nearly every slate. This is more a gut call, but I think with Memphis reeling, having lost every game since the re-start, this is a spot that Morant takes over the game and is uber-aggressive in getting Memphis a win.

On the other side of this game, I love the run back with Shai-Gilgeous Alexander ($6.8K) who will continue to be a focal point for OKC’s offense and his well-rounded game is ideal for DFS. Look back at last game, even though he shot just 3-11, he put up 37 DK points as a result of his 15 combined steals, rebounds and assists. In this pace up spot for OKC, the peripherals should shoot up and if SGA’s shot is falling it could be a big night.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up

The five-man core I outlined above leaves you with just $3.1K for the last 3 spots on DK but once again, I think we will find value easy to come by as news breaks.

We already know Ben Simmons is out, we have Aaron Gordon questionable and with the Nets potentially without Joe Harris and Jarrett Allen – my guess is we have a handful of true punts at our disposal again.

Don’t be afraid to use these guys – jam in the value when we have it – this is the method we have to employ in late-season NBA DFS and staying flexible and inserting value as we find it is a key with the lat swap functionality we have!

Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.