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Waialae Country Club plays host to our Sony Open preview

Well, you can’t ask for much better a start to the year than that! Before we delve into our Sony Open preview proper, it pays to reflect on a fabulous first week of the PGA Tour season. Although we unfortunately dropped Chris Kirk off our final betting card, we had a stunner of a tournament.

Our tips included Theegala in 2nd. He lipped out in the 18th for a play-off, and also delivered us a first-round leader at a massive 60/1!

As well as talking through our favourite PGA DFS plays, we always end the PGA Draftcast with a few FRL tips. Although I wouldn’t consider them “official” bets per se, it’s always a fun way to end the episode and nice to get a big winner!
Subscribe to WinDaily Sports on YouTube and catch the PGA Draftcast every Tuesday 9PM ET here.

We also had Spieth in 3rd, who looked comfortable in a welcome return to form. Sungjae Im finished 5th. He broke the record for most birdies in a single tournament in PGA Tour history and somehow didn’t win, when an even par 3rd round 73 putting paid to his chances. Straka in 12th also cashed our Top 20 bet on him.

Basically, should Kirk have stumbled we had every other realistic option for the winner. To his credit, he looked incredibly calm under pressure and never looked stressed despite a studded leaderboard breathing down his neck. We should probably raise our expectations on his output, as he has looked so comfortable in both victories the past two years.

Before we get into the Sony Open, you can now read not only our free preview at The Sentry here but also get free access to our premium article from last week with our Sentry betting tips and player profiles here.

Nearly all Sony Open previews I read every year will refer to trends. My advice is to approach these with caution. A trend is only worthy of attention if there is an understandable reason why. Correlation does not always mean causation. The most prevalent trend will be some form of “X number of winners of the Sony Open also played at The Sentry the week prior”.

Is there merit to this claim? Fact is, The Sentry typically features the very best players of the PGA Tour the year before. So, it’s unsurprising that those who play the Sony Open tend to go off as favourites and often win in a typically weak field.

I do believe there is an advantage in having played the week prior, to acclimatize and shake the off-season rust. However, I do believe this trend is over-played. I will often see punters and DFS players completely excluding any players who didn’t start the week prior at The Sentry. That is a huge overreaction to a tentative link at best.

Waialae Country Club Course Analysis

The PGA Tour does indeed remain in Hawaii for another week. The Sony Open is once again played on the beautiful Wai’alae Country Club, as we preview what to expect from this golf course. The tournament has been held at the same venue since 1965, so we have plenty of data to delve into!

Part of my perspective on trends comes from the fact that Wai’alae Country Club is as opposite as possible to last week’s Plantation Course at Kapalua. Plantation is huge, both in length of the course and width of the fairways. In contrast, Wai’alae is narrow and fiddly. Actually, Wai’alae Country Club had the largest deviation from normal driving distance of any golf course on the PGA Tour in 2023.

Therefore, unsurprisingly driving accuracy is a strong predictor of success. Much of that comes from the narrow fairways, but also overhanging trees. In 2023, the rough was grown out to 3 inches from 2.25 inches in 2022. Bermuda rough is tough to play. It can really grab onto the club face, as well as produce flyer lies. 3 inches is the longest the PGA Tour have had for Bermuda rough, only previous seen at the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational. That saw a reduction in scoring with -18 enough to win.

With large greens, it is surprising that SG: ATG is such a strong predictor of success here. The main defense for the course are the Hawai’i trade winds and this could be one explainer. As the weather shows some heavy rains before the tournament, I would hazard a prediction we see an uptick in SG: Putting instead with softer surfaces easier to hold. Approach between 150-175 yards is higher than other PGA Tour courses. 63% of all shots will occur from 125-200 yards.

Wai’alae Country Club Course Comps

Prior form at Wai’alae Country Club is highly correlated to success. The correlation of prior performance as a predictor of future success is the 2nd highest of any golf course on the PGA Tour. Augusta National is the highest, by quite some margin.

El Cameleon Mayakoba is a very good guide to our Sony Open preview. The golf course was the prior host of the Worldwide Technology Championship. Then, course designer Greg Norman claimed it back for LIV Golf to use. In 15 iterations of the WWT Mayakoba Championship, 6 also won the Sony Open. Henley completed the double most recently in 2022. It is a narrow test, where driving accuracy is weighted heavily, and is played in tropical and coastal climes.

RBC Heritage host Habour Town Golf Links is another narrow test by the ocean, as is RSM Classic host Sea Island GC. Colonial Country Club receives inclusion, given it’s propensity for SG: ATG and similar approach buckets of 125-200 yards.

Weather

To begin, it is worth a preview of the weather forecast before the Sony Open starts. Heavy rains and thunderstorms are predicted Monday, Tuesday, and early Wednesday this week. The volume of rain will be such that it will be impossible to firm out the course in time and conditions will be soft. As such, I would really be focusing on the key approach numbers listed. I also give a boost to SG: Putting over typical tournaments held here. Holding greens should be easier than previous iterations.

Thursday should present calm weather and, given the early rain, should provide low scoring. Friday sees light rain and overcast conditions all day. Winds should pick up, but they look to be high all day. This means there is less chance of a weather wave developing. Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is especially important for DFS purposes.

Sony Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Sony Open preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for the Sony Open, premium customers can find these here.

For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.

JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $USD240!
That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $449.99.

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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The Sentry preview, set on the backdrop of the Plantation Course at Kapalua

It seems only fitting that the PGA Tour have dropped the “Tournament of Champions” part from the tournament title for The Sentry, our first preview of 2024. After all, this will now be the second consecutive year where the champion is not actually even here to defend their title. Cameron Smith was absent in 2023. Subsequently, Jon Rahm will not be here in 2024 as the latest and most significant defection to LIV Golf. That is a real shame not just for the PGA Tour but, most importantly, the fans. You can read more on my thoughts on the defection and what 2024 may hold here.

Before we dive into our Sentry preview proper, I’d like to take a paragraph to thank all my loyal followers in 2023. Especially, to all our WinDaily Sports subscribers. Obviously, there are costs associated with running a website and providing the best coverage of golf tournaments that we can. For those who supported me in that, please accept my heartfelt gratitude. You literally keep the lights on and, therefore, help us continue producing more great content.

Of course, this also paid off in a rather grand way for our Premium subscribers in 2023!
2023 we had 15 outright winners for a return of investment of +22% on the DP World Tour and +40% on the PGA Tour.
2023 total ROI was an EPIC +33% and profit of +929.58 units.
Using just $10 per unit, you would have made over $9,000 in 2023!

That follows a 2022, when we had 16 outright winners for a return of investment of +24% on the DP World Tour and +26% on the PGA Tour. It marks our 5th consecutive year of profitability; may 2024 bring another one!

The Sentry Preview

Plantation Course at Kapalua – Course Analysis

This is often a tricky event to cover. Chiefly, that comes down to the fact many golfers have only played sparingly since August. Some guesswork is required, and hope that we can use what we know to assist us in our search for a winning start to 2024.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua plays host to The Sentry (Tournament of Champions) as it has done since 1999, so a preview of the course may seem somewhat unnecessary. But, we have of course all been so focused on “growing the game” the last few years that I am sure there are lots of eager new golf fans ready to delve into their first tournament here.

First, note that this is a rare par 73 on the PGA Tour. Sitting at 7,596 yards, the course has 3 par 3s and 4 par 5s. That makes the course one of the longest on the PGA Tour.

The length is offset somewhat by many of the holes playing downhill. As such, driving distance is not the be all and end all here. Fairways are undulating, leading to many approach shots where the ball is above or below the feet. Also assisting are some of the widest fairways and the largest greens on the PGA Tour. Players can pull their driver out regularly, with % of fairways found the highest of all regular PGA Tour stops at 72.2%.

The huge green complexes averaging over 8,700 sq ft also pose less risk when approaching with a long iron than on other courses. There really lies the key to success. Finding the right area of the green. Making your fair share of putts is important too, at a course which has had a tendency to allow some low scores.

Preview Course Comps for The Sentry

Course form at Plantation is somewhat stickier than most PGA Tour courses. If you have played well here previously, there is a higher probability that you will do so again than at comparative venues. Further adding to this phenomenon is the transient nature of this field. Typically, the Sentry field has consisted only of the winners from the previous PGA Tour season. I suspect the correlation of previous success as a predictive factor should actually receive some uptick compared to first glance.

The strongest correlation is from The Masters. That comp passes the sense check. Augusta National features some of the widest fairways on the PGA Tour, actually just wider on average than at the Plantation course Kapalua. Again, fairways found hovers above 70% for Augusta National. Many approach shots are congruent to those seen here due the undulating fairways at both. Most obvious, Jon Rahm completed the double winning both in 2023. 2022 champion Cam Smith came mighty close to winning The Masters with a 2nd and 3rd in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

Hero World Challenge host, Albany Golf Course, also is a decent guide. Played in The Bahamas and featuring a small but elite field, Albany has hosted the Hero World Challenge since 2015. The course provides parallels not only from the field assembled. The tropical and coastal elements lend itself well to Plantation. As a 7,309 yard par 72, driver is used heavily and we can see correlation through the top of the leaderboard. Rahm has won and finished runner-up at both. Morikawa has never finished worse than 7th at Plantation nor worse than 6th at Albany.

Weather

As the Sentry features a limited field, we can release our tournament preview article a little earlier in the week as there is less chance a significant weather edge will develop. Basically, the tee-times are over a shorter window. There is less of an advantage to be gained by any one player.

From our future forecasting, Thursday looks to be overcast with possibility of light showers to soften conditions and benign winds. Scoring should be good, and a fast start likely necessary to keep up with the pack. Friday should see some heavy winds arrive from midday, with gusts over 25mph. The winds remain for Saturday, while Sunday will settle. A low round should again be required on the final day of play.

Overall, the course does not pose much risk and has yielded some very low scores. The main defense for Plantation has always been the wind. We saw this in 2020 with a winning score or -14 being 20 strokes higher than the tournament record -34 set in 2022. With some wind in the forecast, I suspect a winning score in the low 20s should see the job done.

Sentry Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Sentry preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for The Sentry, premium customers can find these here.

For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.

JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $USD240!
That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $449.99.

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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Sungjae Im is our favourite play from our Sentry betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for The Sentry, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. Here I provide my deep-dive analysis of the course, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament.

There are a few notables worth discussing first. Collin Morikawa holds clear appeal. Obviously, he has strong links to Hawaii and has never finished worse than 7th in 4 starts at The Sentry. However, the spectacular capitulation to hand Jon Rahm victory here could well play on his mind. I also held concerns about his ability to play in the wind, which is expected to get reasonably strong on two days of play. Therefore, he misses out on the Sentry betting tips.

Justin Rose held appeal, given his strong Masters record and excellent performances at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas. Similarly, Keegan Bradley was considered before his poor record at both Augusta National and Albany alongside poor showings in his last two Sentry starts saw others preferred.

The Sentry Golf Betting Tips

Results
25 units in, 60.31 units out

Updated 8 Jan 8:30PM ET
Jordan Spieth
3rd – Top 5 at +625
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Tony Finau
38th
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Sungjae Im – The Sentry Betting Tips Favourite
5th – Top 5 at +825 (reduced to -117 due dead-heat)
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Sepp Straka
12th – Top 20 at +162
1pt E/W +6600 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +162 (William Hill)

Sahith Theegala – The Sentry Betting Tips Best Value
2nd – Top 5 at +2000 and Top 20 at +190
1pt E/W +8000 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +180 (William Hill)

We also gave out Theegala as First-Round Leader on the PGA Draftcast, which hit at 60/1!
Tune in on YouTube Tuesdays at 9PM ET as we give out our favourite DFS plays and free FRL bets.

The Sentry Betting Tips Player Profiles

Jordan Spieth – 3rd

It is likely fair to say that Spieth has been out of sorts for a couple of season now. In 2022, he finished in the Top 5 in just 13% of his starts and only really claimed victory at the RBC Heritage as others crumbled around him. Three of those were on our card that week, but I digress.

2023 was a winless season, but did see some improvement finishing in the top 5 in 21% of his starts. No doubt, he will be eager to begin 2024 on a positive note. The Plantation Course at Kapalua could prove the perfect antidote.

We spoke about the correlation from The Masters to The Sentry in our tournament preview article. And, we obviously know what Spieth does at Augusta National. His 2nd on debut was quickly followed by victory the following year and another runner up. He has added another two 3rd place finishes and a 4th in 2023. That means he has finished 4th or better in 60% of his starts at The Masters.

It is no surprise then that he won this tournament in 2016. Again, that came after a runner-up finish on first sight. He finished 9th or better in his first 4 starts here. Falling off the boil in 2022 and 2023 (21st and 13th respectively) coincides with his general regression in form over that period.

Of promise though was a return to form in December, finishing 6th at the Hero World Challenge. A mediocre 71 in the 3rd round put paid to his chances there, but it was a glimmer of hope that Spieth could kick-start 2024 in the best way possible.

Tony Finau – 38th

Next in our Sentry betting tips is Tony Finau. Given his propensity to be a perennial close finisher, he had been referred to as “T2 Tony” by some. Finau broke free of the shackles of that reputation in 2022.

Back-to-back wins that year were followed by a 2023 season where he again got over the finish line twice. The latter of those victories came at the Mexico Open over absent defending champion Jon Rahm. Vidanta Vallarta is far from the worst comp course. The wide open fairways, long irons, and low scoring are all common to what is required at Plantation.

Finau already holds a 9th and 7th at this tournament and boasts 3 top 10s at the Masters, where he has never missed the cut. However, the form at the Hero World Challenge is what really caught my eye. He holds a record around Albany of 2-10-7-7-4. That most recent 4th included holding the first round lead, with another 67 coming in the final round.

Much of the final result will come down to Finau’s ability to get the putter rolling. But, when he does so, he now wins golf tournaments. The putter again looked to be leaning towards the right direction towards the end of 2023, and a fast start to the season would not surprise at a course where he has always looked a likely sort.

Sungjae Im – 5th
The Sentry Betting Tips Favourite

I really like the number currently available around Sungjae Im this week. Sungjae was 5th on his first look at this course, a tournament where he also lead the field in SG: tee-to-green and actually lost strokes putting. He has subsequently finished 8th and 13th in his other two appearances here.

Of course, Im has also flashed at Augusta National. The runner-up finish on Masters debut was obviously eye-catching, but he has then gone on to add an 8th and 16th place finish there as well. He has only played the Hero World Challenge once, finishing 8th in 2022. There, he was able to overcome the 3rd worst opening round (74) to continually improve throughout the week.

Sungjae Im has always been a golfer who has promised more. It is perhaps surprising that he is still only 25 years old. For context, he is just 18 months older than Ludvig Aberg. The end of 2023 held much promise for Im. Outside a lackluster Tour Championship, he quietly finished 14th or better in his final 5 tournaments of the year. 2024 could well be the year he kicks on to bigger things.

Sepp Straka – 12th

Sepp Straka has cemented himself as one of the ultimate boom-or-bust plays in golf. When looking at longer odds, that is always going to hold some appeal and more-so in a reduced field size.

It was another fantastic year in 2023, most notable for winning the John Deere Classic before finishing runner-up at The Open Championship.

The Masters record is just ok, although he has made the cut in his two starts there. He arrives here off another recent runner-up finish in the Hero World Challenge at Albany. He overcame a mediocre even par opening round there, quickly finding his feet and finishing with an excellent 64 in the final round. Similar can be said for his single appearance here, where he finished 68-67 over the weekend and improved in each round.

Additionally, in that sole Sentry appearance he was 2nd in the field for SG: Approach. And it is that which we are buying into; his absolute ability to get red-hot with his irons and putter on his day.

Sahith Theegala – 2nd
The Sentry Betting Tips Best Value

Another longer odds selection with seemingly endless upside to close out our Sentry betting tips. Sahith Theegala secured his inaugural PGA Tour win towards the tail-end of 2023. It was a victory that many saw coming, with his notably aggressive style of play lending itself to top finishes or ending at the bottom half of the field.

Theegala struggled at this course in 2023. However, a deeper dive into his numbers that week reveal that he was actually 10th in the field for SG: Approach and 2nd worst for putting that week. Theegala is certainly an excellent putter, ranking 13th on the PGA Tour over the last 6 months. Additionally, some of his best putting performances have come on bermudagrass as we find here. Notably, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and RSM Classic come to mind.

Of course, then was the 9th on Masters debut. That really felt like a significant moment for Theegala in his fledgling career; a sign to all of us that he can truly holds the ability to compete with the best. That, when combined with his near perfect correlation to the ideal course fit for this track, makes the 80/1 currently available far too juicy to resist.

What a start to 2024!

For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.

Our results speak for themself.
2022 we had 16 outright winners for a return of investment of +24% on the DP World Tour and +26% on the PGA Tour.
2023 we had 15 outright winners for a return of investment of +22% on the DP World Tour and +40% on the PGA Tour.
2023 the combined total ROI was an EPIC +33% and +929.58 units.
Using just $10 per unit, you would have made over $9,000 in 2023!

JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $USD240!
That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $449.99.

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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