The options in tonight’s 7:05 EST 9/25 DFS main slate are limited, and most of the arms we’re focusing on are in the upper pricing tier. But there’s a couple lower priced options in the mix of today’s pitching picks to help you get some of those potent bats in your lineups. Let’s go!
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I don’t normally like to pick too much on the Marlins, but after last night’s big Mets rally and subsequent victory, I think Miami will have a tough time getting up for this game against the NL’s most electric starter. The dominant deGrom has thrown seven scoreless innings in each of his last two starts and most recently allowed just four hits with no walks and nine Ks in an 8-1 win over the Reds. He’s carrying a 3.44 ERA in 21 career starts against the Marlins but those numbers should improve overall after tonight.
He’s a huge favorite on the road in Seattle and this will be his final start in the regular season – one that’s been somewhat tumultuous. But in nine starts since being traded from the D-backs back to the AL on July 31, Greinke is 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA. 9/25 DFS features a couple of proven veteran arms with upside — and Lester has now topped 200 innings pitched for the ninth time – a feat that only Justin Verlander, who’s done that 12 times, has accomplished more among active pitchers. The Mariners don’t scare me much, so Greinke makes sense in cash and GPP.
Bieber might not be the most dominant arm on tonight’s slate, buthe’s a couple hundred bucks cheaper than Jacob deGrom and should command muchlower ownership for GPPs. He had a clunker a couple starts ago, which shouldkeep him from donning the chalk, and he’s still sporting a 28.1 K% over hislast two seasons. The White Sox have a 25.6 K% this season and Bieber should besinging them the blues in the Southside tonight.
It’s been a frustrating season for Lester, who’s 35 years old and winding down an impressive career. He’s okay for 9/25 DFS cash if you’re fine with a little bit of risk, but I think he’s more of a GPP play tonight. The Cubs southpaw has gone 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA in four starts against the Pirates this season and is 2-1 with a 5.48 ERA in four outings in September. He’s not an exciting guy to plug into your lineups, but he’s pitched well versus the Pirates and seems to be one of the best options in this slate.
I guess the aforementioned Lester could be considered apunt on FD, where he’s less than $7K, but there just aren’t too many arms inthat price range who I’ll be rolling out this evening. Samardzija will make thefinal start of his 2019 season at home versus the Rockies, who are much less frighteningon the road. Last night’s game lasted 5 hours, 31 minutes, with the Giants making12 pitching changes – so they’ll be looking for some length out of Big Jeff tonight.The 34-year-old veteran is 6-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 20 career appearances againstthe Rockies and makes for a fine cheap SP2 on DK and a contrarian GPP play onFD.
Speaking of contrarian options for 9/25 DFS, we’ll close out the recommendations with Jacob No. 2. Waguespack, a reverse splits pitcher with an occasionally aggressive approach that’s feast or famine for opposing hitters, pitched well in his last start against the Yankees in New York, peppering hitters with inside fastballs and cutters, limiting hard contact and striking out six batters over five innings. This version of the Orioles lineup (the one with Chris Davis) strikes out at a pretty high clip, and I’m less frightened of them the day following a big offensive explosion. Mix him into a few GPPs as your SP2 on DK and stay away from him on FD.
Morton should rack up plenty of Ks against the Yankees. He’s posted at least eight Ks in seven of his last 11 and three of his last four games. If there’s one thing the Yankees do other than hit home runs, it’s strike out, and they really don’t make a lot of contact in Tampa.
Tanaka has at least 5 Ks in six of his last seven games and matches up well with the Tampa lineup. There’s plenty of upside here if you want to take the risk and bank on the over for both pitchers.
I love Lamet’s 12.57 K/9 this season and 14.2 SwStr% this season,a number that’s been 15.2 over the last 30 days, good for 10th bestin baseball (min 20 IP) during that stretch. He’s posted K totals of 14,7,4,10,5, 6, 7 and 12 since the start of August. He’s also gone at least 5.0 IP in allthose games. I’m taking the over and counting on at least six Ks from Dinelson.
Stripling’s pitched just 2.0 innings in three of his last four appearances(the other was 3.0 IP), and has whiffed just 3,2,2,2 in those outings. He’s basicallyan opener now and the odds of him of racking up more than five Ks have to bepretty low. I’m taking under 5.5 Ks from the Dodgers’ opener.
Good afternoon everyone! For those not familiar, my name is Dan Wehr and I am a new author here at WinDailyDFS. This article will cover a game by game breakdown for the seven game main slate on Draftkings and Fanduel.
Over/Under: 10.5
Implied Run Total – TOR: 3.91 Runs
Implied Run Total – NYY: 6.63 Runs
Weather Concerns – N/A
Toronto Blue Jays – Aaron Sanchez (RHP) on the mound tonight for the Jays in New York. He is carrying a 5.49 ERA, 5.50 FIP, and 5.43 SIERA on the season. He has identical splits, allowing .354 wOBA, .380 OBP, and .445 SLG on the season. Toronto hitters are slashing .346 wOBA .213 ISO, and 119 WRC+ to left handed pitchers over the last two weeks.
Preferred Plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Eric Sogard, Vlad Guerro Jr., and Randal Grichuk.
New York Yankees – CC Sabathia (LHP) on the mound tonight for the Yankees at home. He is carrying a 4.14 ERA, 5.66 FIP, and 4.29 SIERA on the season. Sabathia has true splits, allowing .379 wOBA, .561 SLG, and .352 OBP against right handed batters. He is also allowing 2.14 HR/9. New York hitters are slashing .380 wOBA, .232 ISO, .366 BABIP, and 138 WRC+ to right handed pitching over the last two weeks, well above their season average.
Preferred Plays: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion, DJ Lemahieu, and Gleyber Torres.
Over/Under: 10
Implied Run Total – NYM: 4.76 Runs
Implied Run Total – PHI: 5.26 Runs
Weather Concerns – Possible late game shower
New York Mets – Steven Matz (LHP) on the mound tonight for the Mets in Philly. Matz is carrying a 4.28 ERA, 5.00 FIP, and 4.37 SIERA on the sesason. Matz has reverse splits, allowing .401 wOBA, .563 SLG, and .397 OBP to left handed batters. He is also allowing 40% hard contact and 1.83 HR/9. Mets batters are slashing .306 wOBA, .182 ISO, .262 BABIP, and .419 SLG. They are hitting close to their season average over their last two weeks.
Preferred Plays: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and Robinson Cano.
Philadelphia Phillies – Zach Eflin (RHP) is on the mound at home tonight. He is sporting a 2.83 ERA, 4.02 FIP, and 4.51 SIERA. Eflin is allowing only .221 BABIP on the season. Philly batters are slashing .332 wOBA, .155 ISO, .300 BABIP, and .412 SLG against left handed pitching over the last few weeks, close to their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Zach Eflin, Scott Kingery, Jay Bruce, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, and JT Realmuto.
Over/Under: 10
Implied Run Total – KCR: 4.34 Runs
Implied Run Total – CLE: 5.72 Runs
Weather Concerns – Possible PPD. 55% Precip. 7pm-10pm (EST)
Kansas City Royals – Brad Keller (RHP) on the mound for the Royals in Cleveland. He carries a 4.45 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 5.41 SIERA on the season. Keller has identical splits, allowing .311 wOBA, .343 OBP, and .367 SLG. He has a low HC% and FB% all while only allowing .56 HR/9 this season. Royals batters are slashing .275 wOBA, .115 ISO, and .271 BABIP to right handed pitchers over the last few weeks. They are hitting well below their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Brad Keller
Cleveland Indians – Adam Plutko (RHP) takes the mound at home. He carries a 4.55 ERA, 6.25 FIP, and 4.69 SIERA on the season. Plutko is allowing .391 wOBA, .655 SLG, and .305 OBP on the year. He is also allowing 2.93 HR/9. Despite the inflated numbers, Plutko does offer strike out upside. Indians batters are slashing .341 wOBA, .212 ISO, and .327 BABIP over the last few weeks. They are hitting above their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Adam Plutko, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Oscar Mercado, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor.
Over/Under: 9
Implied Run Total – CHW: 3.88
Implied Run Total – BOS: 5.14
Weather Concerns – N/A
Chicago White Sox – Lucas Giolito (RHP) is on the mound in Boston tonight. He is sporting a 2.74 ERA, 3.09 FIP, and 3.62 SIERA on the season. Giolito has excellent splits, allowing .252 wOBA, .267 OBP, and .304 SLG to both hands this season. White Sox batters are slashing .353 wOBA, .192 ISO, and 124 WRC+ over the last two weeks, well above their season avearges.
Preferred Plays: Luery Garcia, Jose Abreu, James McCann, and Eloy Jimenez.
Boston Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) is on the mound at home this evening. He is carrying a 4.71 ERA, 4.00, and 3.98 SIERA on the season. Rodriguez is a reverse splits pitcher, allowing .392 wOBA, .610 SLG, and 7 home runs through 18 innings pitched against left handed batters. Red Sox batters are slashing .392 wOBA, .243 ISO, and 139 WRC+ to right handed pitching over the last two weeks. The Red Sox are hitting well above their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Christian Vasquez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, and Jackie Bradley Jr..
Over/Under: 11.5
Implied Run Total – ATL: 5.45
Implied Run Total – CHC: 6.12
Weather Concerns – N/A
Atlanta Braves – Julio Teheran (RHP) takes the mound at Wrigley this evening. He is sporting a 3.40 ERA, 4.36 FIP, and 5.10 SIERA on the season. Teheran has identical splits, carrying .288 wOBA .311 OBP, and .347 SLG to both hands. I consider Teheran a viable pitching option in GPP’s. Braves hitters are slashing a massive .426 wOBA, .271 ISO, .386 BABIP, and 161 WRC+ over the last two weeks. To put it simply, they are on absolute fire.
Preferred Plays: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Ronald Acuna Jr..
Chicago Cubs – Jon Lester (LHP) is on the mound at home tonight. He carries a 4.13 ERA, 4.47 FIP, and 4.16 SIERA on the season. Lester has identical splits, allowing .390 wOBA, .329 OBP, and .464 SLG to both hands. He is also allowing 81% contact on his pitches, 41% of that being hard contact. Cubs batters are slashing ,291 wOBA, .163 ISO, .253 BABIP, and 78 WRC+ over the last two weeks. They are hitting well below their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Kyle Schwarber, Wilson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, and Jason Heyward.
Over/Under: 8
Implied Run Total – LAD: 4.25 Runs
Implied Run Total – ARI: 3.75 Runs
Weather Concerns – Dome
Los Angeles Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw (LHP) takes the mound in Arizona tonight. He is sporting a 2.85 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 3.76 SIERA on the season. Kershaw has identical splits, carrying .282 wOBA, .269 OBP, and .278 BABIP to both hands. Dodgers batters are slashing .338 wOBA, .209 ISO, and .298 BABIP over the last two weeks. They are hitting close to their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Clayton Kershaw, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, and Cody Bellinger.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Zack Greinke (RHP) takes the mound at home tonight. He is sporting a 2.91 ERA, 3.45 FIP, and 3.96 SIERA on the season. Greinke has identical splits, allowing .260 wOBA, .249 OBP, and .252 BABIP to both hands. Arizona batters are slashing .339 wOBA, .218 ISO, and .306 BABIP over the last two weeks, They are hitting above their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Ildemaro Vargas, and Carson Kelly.
Over/Under: 7.5
Implied Run Total – COL: 3.75
Implied Run total – SFG: 3.75
Weather Concerns – N/A
Colorado Rockies – Jon Gray (RHP) takes the mound tonight in San Francisco. He carries a 4.18 ERA, 4.20 FIP, and 4.19 SIERA on the year. Gray has identical splits, carrying a .338 wOBA, .339 OBP, and .439 SLG to both hands. Rockies batters are slashing a slate high .427 wOBA, .220 ISO, .438 BABIP, and 138 WRC+ over the last two weeks. They are hitting well above their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Jon Gray, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, David Dahl, and Nolan Arenado.
San Francisco Giants – Drew Pomeranz (LHP) is on the mound at home. He carries a 7.09 ERA, 6.01 FIP, and 4.68 SIERA on the year. Pomeranz has true splits as right handed batters are slashing .412 wOBA, .594 SLG, and .396 OBP against him this season. San Francisco batters are slashing .334 wOBA, .182 ISO, and .321 BABIP recently. They are hitting close to their season averages.
Preferred Plays: Brandon Belt and Alex Dickerson
Top Pitchers:
Top Stacks:
Home Run Call: Austin Riley (ATL)
Absolutely no weather issues (again!) for today.
Max Scherzer, Nationals at Padres ($11,700 FD, $12,000 DK): Scherzer comes into this matchup smoking hot, striking out 15 in eight innings of one-run ball in his last start against the Reds, although he needed 120 pitches to do so. So the Nationals gave their ace an extra day’s rest. The Padres come into this matchup striking out the most often of any MLB team against righties, at 26.8%. Though you will struggle to get the bats you want in your lineup, he has to be given cash consideration.
Lucas Giolito, White Sox at Royals ($11,400 FD, $11,200 DK): There is no doubt in my mind that Giolito can be considered an ace. On FD, he has scored at least 55 fantasy points in three consecutive starts. And taking a rain-shortened start against the Blue Jays on May 18th, he has recorded at least 52 in his last five. Coming off this amazing roll, he was named AL Pitcher of the Month for May and Player of the Week last week. Giolito has given up just five runs in 43.2 innings over his past six starts. The Royals are not the paper-cut-you-to-death team of years past that simply didn’t strike out. They are 19th in the league with their 22.4% strikeout rate against righties. Much like Mad Max above, he is worth of cash consideration though roster construction will be challenging.
Jack Flaherty, Cardinals at Cubs ($8,100 FD, $9,000 DK): You get a cash game pitcher on FD with that price! Flaherty was cruising in his last start, at home against this same Cubs team, striking out eight batters while giving up four hits and two runs, until the rain came and limited his start to five innings. Speaking of the rain and other aspects of the weather, a crucial component of any game at Wrigley is the weather and today we get a wind blowing in from right at 10-20 mph with no chance of any rain. The Cubs strike out the 15th most frequently vs. righties at 23.1% and over the last seven days, they are whiffing 26.6% of the time, which is the sixth most frequent in MLB.
Jon Lester, Cardinals at Cubs ($7,700 FD, $7,400 DK): Cash worthy on both sites because of his floor, Lester is sure happy to be pitching in Wrigley. His eyes must light up when he sees he is pitching at home this season, because his splits are dramatic. In 30.2 innings at Wrigley he has only given up two home runs and has a 1.76 ERA. On the road, he has surrendered five big flies in only 29 innings pitched with a 4.97 ERA. Maybe his strikeout to walk ratio is most telling: 32 to 4 at home, 24 to 10 away.
Nick Pivetta, Reds at Phillies ($7,300 FD, $8,800 DK): Well, maybe bargain basement only applies to FD in this case, but making my prelim lineups on that site, Pivetta is who I am going with. He is coming off one of the best starts of his career Sunday against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, allowing three hits and striking out nine in six scoreless innings. The Reds strike out the eighth most frequently at 24.6% against righties and the 10th in the last seven days, at 24.3%. Pivetta seemed to have found himself at the Triple A level and has carried that back to the Majors.
Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day
Nick Pivetta over 6.5 strikeouts
I just wrote about Pivetta above, so let’s double down on him! Seriously though, in his two starts since his recall from AAA, he has struck out 15 batters in only 11 innings. If he can last six innings, he should have no problem reaching seven strikeouts.
Absolutely no weather issues (again!) for today.
Max Scherzer, Nationals at Padres ($11,700 FD, $12,000 DK): Scherzer comes into this matchup smoking hot, striking out 15 in eight innings of one-run ball in his last start against the Reds, although he needed 120 pitches to do so. So the Nationals gave their ace an extra day’s rest. The Padres come into this matchup striking out the most often of any MLB team against righties, at 26.8%. Though you will struggle to get the bats you want in your lineup, he has to be given cash consideration.
Lucas Giolito, White Sox at Royals ($11,400 FD, $11,200 DK): There is no doubt in my mind that Giolito can be considered an ace. On FD, he has scored at least 55 fantasy points in three consecutive starts. And taking a rain-shortened start against the Blue Jays on May 18th, he has recorded at least 52 in his last five. Coming off this amazing roll, he was named AL Pitcher of the Month for May and Player of the Week last week. Giolito has given up just five runs in 43.2 innings over his past six starts. The Royals are not the paper-cut-you-to-death team of years past that simply didn’t strike out. They are 19th in the league with their 22.4% strikeout rate against righties. Much like Mad Max above, he is worth of cash consideration though roster construction will be challenging.
Jack Flaherty, Cardinals at Cubs ($8,100 FD, $9,000 DK): You get a cash game pitcher on FD with that price! Flaherty was cruising in his last start, at home against this same Cubs team, striking out eight batters while giving up four hits and two runs, until the rain came and limited his start to five innings. Speaking of the rain and other aspects of the weather, a crucial component of any game at Wrigley is the weather and today we get a wind blowing in from right at 10-20 mph with no chance of any rain. The Cubs strike out the 15th most frequently vs. righties at 23.1% and over the last seven days, they are whiffing 26.6% of the time, which is the sixth most frequent in MLB.
Jon Lester, Cardinals at Cubs ($7,700 FD, $7,400 DK): Cash worthy on both sites because of his floor, Lester is sure happy to be pitching in Wrigley. His eyes must light up when he sees he is pitching at home this season, because his splits are dramatic. In 30.2 innings at Wrigley he has only given up two home runs and has a 1.76 ERA. On the road, he has surrendered five big flies in only 29 innings pitched with a 4.97 ERA. Maybe his strikeout to walk ratio is most telling: 32 to 4 at home, 24 to 10 away.
Nick Pivetta, Reds at Phillies ($7,300 FD, $8,800 DK): Well, maybe bargain basement only applies to FD in this case, but making my prelim lineups on that site, Pivetta is who I am going with. He is coming off one of the best starts of his career Sunday against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, allowing three hits and striking out nine in six scoreless innings. The Reds strike out the eighth most frequently at 24.6% against righties and the 10th in the last seven days, at 24.3%. Pivetta seemed to have found himself at the Triple A level and has carried that back to the Majors.
Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day
Nick Pivetta over 6.5 strikeouts
I just wrote about Pivetta above, so let’s double down on him! Seriously though, in his two starts since his recall from AAA, he has struck out 15 batters in only 11 innings. If he can last six innings, he should have no problem reaching seven strikeouts.
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