Jon Lester

Welcome to the Thursday, May 13th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Game Slate

Another day of MLB DFS split slate action for us on Thursday and it begins with a five game slate at 12:20 PM EST.

First and foremost, we have a slate-breaking ace in Corbin Burnes on this slate who possesses a massive 45.4% K rate this season and 20% swinging-strike rate and has put up 30+ DK points in 4 of his first 5 starts of the young season including a 9 K 30 point outing against the same St. Louis team he faces today.

The only real “concern” with Burnes is that he is coming off the COVID list after testing positive, however Burnes was asymptomatic during his quarantine. Unless we hear about some definitive pitch count prior to the game, I am simply locking him in as a core play on this slate.

The SP2 question is far tougher and while I do think there is a path to going double-aces with Jack Flaherty, the pricing on the bats dictates that I likely need to go cheaper and that leads me to two arms – Michael Pineda and Daniel Lynch.

As he always does – Adam Strangis laid out the path for both of these arms in his starting rotation where I think there are strong arguments to be made for both here today but there is risk in using either. Personally, I am with Adam though that the risk on Lynch is largely priced in at $5.7K and the season-long metrics would tell us we can attack Detroit with LHP this season.

Listen, Lynch got his teeth kicked in against the White Sox but a lefty struggling against the White Sox is not something I am going to be surprised by and Mike Matheny said after the game that Lynch was tipping pitches and they went to work to address it.

The reality is, Lynch has NASTY stuff and it all starts with the slider he threw nearly 40% of the time in his first start to the Indians.

The Tigers projected line-up has one batter in Robbie Grossman who profiles well against that pitch type, but otherwise the rest of the lineup all has 35% or higher whiff rates against that pitch type so there is some serious K upside here for Lynch with his pedigree.

One of the major arguments for Lynch on DraftKings as an SP2 is that he allows you a path to big bats while still being able to pay up for Corbin Burnes and that is one of the main strategy foundations for me on this five gamer – because I want to make sure I have big time pieces to the Braves/Blue Jays bats.

The Braves get Ross Stripling, a pitcher that has struggled mightily early in the year especially to right-handed batters with a near 3 HR/9 on the back of a .306 ISO and a walk rate at 11% that is equal to his K rate (fyi – that is not a good thing).

Stripling struggles with right-handed power is well, in for a real treat when you consider the right-handed power the Braves posses and the even scarier part is that they profile well against his pitch types.

Stripling has significantly upped his slider usage this season, a near 10% jump from the prior two years and is using it nearly 30% of the time to right-handed batters. The problem is he is giving up a .417 ISO and 42% HC rate with that pitch and in comes Ronald Acuna Jr. who has a .301 ISO and 52% hard contact rate against that pitch type. If Stripling goes to the curve, which he throws 20% of the time instead – well Acuna has a .311 ISO and 48% HC rate against that pitch type.

When Acuna hits a bomb in the first at-bat and you vault up the early leaderboards, you can smile and know we called it. Acuna double-dong day is coming – and I am here for it.

While Acuna profiles well, so too does Marcell Ozuna with a .246 ISO against the curve and a .330 ISO against the low 90’s velocity fastball. Now this stack can get expensive if you want to roll out Freddie Freeman and/or Ozzie Albies as well but you may get some true punt value you can use to offset that with Christian Pache ($2k) and Jeff Mathis ($2K) who could draw the start in a day game after William Contreras caught the last two games.

The Blue Jays will take on RHP Charlie Morton, who has surrendered 15 runs in his last three starts, spanning just 11 innings and one of those starts came against the same Jays team he faces today. Morton relies heavily on his curve to RHB, nearly a third of the time, and oh well – Vladdy Jr. and Bo Bichette both happen to hit said pitch to the tune of .250+ ISO marks and 45% hard contact.

For me in a roster build today – my goal will be to go 5-3 with the Braves being the priority, while a go power and home run hunting more on the Jays side all while locking in Corbin Burnes as my SP1.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate

The six-game Main Slate has a contest in Coors Field with an 11 IRT, a $2K Jared Kelenic making his MLB debut for the Mariners (thanks to Brodie Van Wagenen), and pitching options that well, are quite limited.

As Adam outlined in Starting Rotation – the pitching pool is SUPER dicey tonight and I think it leads me to either a path where I go double-aces with Christian Javier and Trevor Rogers or pair one with a dirt-cheap Logan Gilbert at $4K as a way to get Coors Field exposure.

Javier and Rogers have the kind of elite K stuff I want to anchor to in my MLB DFS picks with 30% and 33% K rates respectively this season and having two pitchers with demonstrated 30+ DK point ceiling on a slate where everyone tries to jam in Coors bats could give us massive leverage on the field.

The truth is, getting these two arms is not going to preclude you from missing out on big bats and I think there is a really sneaky stack tonight in the Tampa Bay Rays that offer us massive upside at likely no ownership and price points that make it easy to pay for the two big arms.

The Rays take on RHP Jameson Taillon in Tampa tonight and while the name value may keep you from picking on him, the metrics should not. Taillon has massive red flags – giving up .200+ ISO marks to both sides of the plate with 50% + fly ball rates.

The Rays order has 4 hitters in the heart of it with .220+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of last season with Randy Arozerena, Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe and Mike Zunino. Additionally, Meadows and Zunino have 55%+ fly ball rates against right-handed pitching which sets them up for a batted ball profile that aligns with Taillon’s red flags.

The Rays are the kind of team on a short slate like this that has the demonstrated power to rival any other team and I think the combination of Coors Field and the lofty pricing on some of the Rays will make them virtually ignored. However just a quick glance at this slate and you will see we have multiple $2K type hitting punts – some even in Coors Field with Connor Joe and Josh Fuentes ($2K and $2.3K) respectively that allows you a path to go 5 man Rays with 3 man Rockies using the punt 1B/3B duo from the Rockies!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

We have two slates today that play somewhat similarly in that we have limited pitching options while also having clear big bats we want to anchor to. On slates like these, prioritize pitching FIRST and work your way into builds where we can still get the big bats. The day games are almost guaranteed to get some punts on a day game after a night game and the Main Slate has multiple hitters at minimum price that allow you to stack big bats and still get the arms you need!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Wednesday, May 12th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Three Game Early Slate

Happy Wednesday my MLB DFS family – we get a split slate of DFS action with a 3 game Early Slate that kicks off at noon and a 10 game Main Slate at 7 PM EST and neither slate will have Coors Field chalk which makes this even better!

The early three-gamer is actually pretty solid and there is nothing better than some mid-day DFS action so I wanted to give my quick thoughts on this slate.

The pitching is simple, honestly, I think there are only two viable options with Sonny Gray and Taijuan Walker – the only two arms on this slate with swing and miss ability and the pricing is low enough where you are still able to build big stacks around them.

I would argue that staying right here with the Reds/Mets is the ideal way to attack this slate for bats as well. Listen, the Cubs bats are the top stack on the slate against LHP Sam Hentges however they are insanely pricey with the top 4 hitters all at $5K or higher on DK and that assumes they even play, as Kris Bryant and Javier Baez both missed Tuesday’s game with illness/injury.

The Reds take on RHP Trevor Cahill, who is surrendering a .204 ISO and 47% HC rate to LHB this season with a reliance on a change-up he is throwing nearly 30% of the time and it is getting hammered to the tune of a .438 ISO and 40% HC rate.

Scroll through the LHB on the Reds – Winker, Moustakas and Naquin – all of them have .250+ ISO marks and 40% plus hard contact rates against that pitch type which makes them an ideal core stack to build around to attack Cahill’s pitch type.

While the right-handed batters have not been the spot to target, I will say – a Eugenio Suarez addition to a Reds stack looks amazing here today. Cahill relies nearly 40% of the time on his sinker to RHB – Suarez has a .340 ISO against that pitch type and most importantly, he has a 51% fly-ball rate against RHP this season and has a low GB rate against that pitch type. So where Cahill wants to pound righties into the ground with the sinker, Suarez has the swing profile to lift it and take him deep.

Now the Mets – listen, it’s been a while since we wrote up a Mets stack and this is not a “revenge narrative” against Matt Harvey in his first start back in Citi Field. The reality is, Harvey is a much better pitcher this year but he still is an arm with a low K rate and a high fly ball rate, especially to LHB with a 13% K rate and near 50% FB rate.

Harvey has been able to limit the damage by relying on his change-up but the reality is, hes generating almost no swing and miss stuff and even his soft contact rate at just 14% is low. So while the big crooked innings haven’t been there – he is also relying on pitching to contact and BABIP to help him. The Mets are a full stack or stay away for me as a result because what you are looking for in this spot is multiple hit innings, where the lack of a put away pitch leaves working with runners on base and the Mets using their left-handed heavy line-up to attack their ex-franchise star.

The core for me here is going to be the lefties – Conforto, Dom Smith and Lindor. Welcome back to New York Dark Knight – I hope you get a well-deserved ovation – then the Amazin’s hammer you for a DFS GPP takedown!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate

Oh man, not only do I get Matt Harvey back in New York but I get a Jon Lester day too? Is it my birthday?

This slate at first glance is incredibly top heavy with pitching – meaning I think we have to build around “double aces” and I also think with how strong this slate is, it is going to make finding bats that much harder.

Thankfully, we have Jon Lester against Philadelphia in what sets up perfectly as the Philly bats are cheap enough where you can lock in two high-dollar elite K arms like Gerrit Cole, Brandon Woodruff or Danny Duffy as an SP2 and still 5 man stack the Phils against our favorite lefty!

As Adam outlined in his Starting Rotation – I simply see no reason to move off the “top tier” – especially when I can get the stacks I want around them!

You guys know the deal by now, Lester has a near 6 xFIP and has a .200 ISO and 40% HC rate and will face an almost entirely right-handed Phillies line-up with the exception of Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorious.

It looks unlikely that JT Realmuto will play after an injury last night but the Phillies still have Andrew McCutchen with a .290 ISO to LHP, Alex Bohm (.260) and Rhys Hoskins (.310) all with strong power numbers on the right side of the splits.

I am always looking for strong correlation in my stacks to find teams that work well together and if we assume that Realmuto is out for the Phillies, can I find a stack to work around them with a strong Catcher? Enter the Kansas City Royals against RHP Casey Mize.

While Mize has struggled more against LHB, Salvador Perez profiles extremely well against Mize’s primary pitch types with a .300 ISO against the slider and a .500 ISO mark against the sinker which is what Mize throws nearly 60% combined to right-handed batters this season.

Any time that we go Royals – for me the mini-stack starts with the C/2B combo of Salvy/Whitt Merrifield and I am hopeful today we get Ryan O’Hearn in the lineup.

O’Hearn has been in a straight platoon but with a .241 ISO against RHP this season aligning with Mize’s .250 ISO and 52% HC rate allowed to LHB, he becomes a tremendous salary saving option to use in a Royals mini-stack.

Going with a Phillies/Royals 5-3 type build will still allow you to pay up for arms and that is a path that could pay big time dividends in GPP’s this evening!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Two Slates and all day MLB DFS to talk about? Yes please!

The Early Slate is all about Gray/Walker and the Reds power bats with some Matt Harvey regression as an appetizer.

The Main Slate – well this is where you get a Picks and Pivots favorite – the ability to go double aces AND 5 man stack against the one and only Jon Lester. Fire up the band – make sure the Phanatic is ready, because tonight the Phillies bats take down a GPP!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Tuesday, May 11th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Never Leave the Table on a Hot Streak!

Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots and after a monster night on Monday, we are back and ready to keep the heater rolling. As you can see above, the Reds stack paid big dividends around our Alex Wood/Tyler Mahle combo and we hit big as a Win Daily Sports team last night – absolutely nothing better than seeing the games go final and the Discord screenshot parade begin! You simply love to see it!

At first glance in looking over this slate, there is a clear cut ace up top with Walker Buehler but what really stands out to me is the mid to lower range of starting pitchers on this slate with elite K upside and/or match-ups.

My man Adam Strangis did an exceptional job today as he always does in his Starting Rotation of going pitcher by pitcher and I implore you – guys, this is the best pitching article in the industry and if you are not reading it and REALLY listening instead of just “trying to pick plays” – you are doing yourself a disservice.

What Adam lays out perfectly is how strong this mid-range is with K upside and while I do like Buehler as a play, at first glance I see myself living in the value range with arms like Shohei Ohtani, Dylan Cease and Brady Singer.

One of the main reasons that I like that type of build for GPP play is that you can anchor to high upside K arms and you still have significant room to build around the bats that are going to win you the slate.

The spot for the offense that I LOVE tonight is in Atlanta as we get the Braves and Blue Jays and two offenses that have slate-breaking potential. Now the one tricky part – The Braves are still undecided on their starting pitcher for this game but indications are they could recall Bryse Wilson to start from AAA.

What we do know is that Robbie Ray will start for the Jays for the second time this season against Atlanta where he gave up just 2 ER back in April with 5 K’s.

Robbie Ray is a fascinating case for DFS because his K ability is always something that draws people in to use him but his advanced metrics simultaneously scream we should load up bats against him.

Take the name out of it for a second – if I told you there was a pitcher that since 2020 against right-handed batters had a .280 ISO, 48% hard contact rate, 48% fly-ball rate, 17% walk rate, and 2.5 HR/9 rate – and oh, by the way, will likely face 7/8 RHB tonight, wouldn’t you be stacking as much as you could?

If you go back to that first game against Atlanta, Ray threw his fastball a whopping 68% of the time and while the average velocity of 96 MPH may seem impressive, the reality is, the pitch generated just a 13% swing and miss rate.

Take it a step further and his most used secondary offering – the slider, which he used nearly 20% of the time in that game, has a average hard contact rate of 72.3% (yikes) when facing RHB this season.

The game logs tell you he can and has been successful but when the advanced metrics are flashing red lights and you see a pitcher, relying almost entirely on a two pitch mix that A) is getting hit HARD and B) is not generating swing and misses – it is only a matter of time before you have to pay the piper.

You start any Braves stack with Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna and I would argue that Ozzie Albies deserves to be added to that list as all three have .200+ ISO marks against LHP since the start of last season. All three of these hitters mash high-velocity fastballs as well with Ozuna (.600 ISO) and Albies (.364 ISO) leading the team with Dansby Swanson also sporting a .360+ mark of his own.

This is an all-or-nothing type stack – the best kinds for GPP play – as Ray could finally have that blow-up outing in arguably the best hitter’s environment on the slate with 70 degrees and the wind blowing out in Atlanta. With Coors Field on the slate, will these Atlanta bats be overlooked? If so, giddy up!

If Wilson is recalled by Atlanta, it is hard not to load up on Jays bats considering that Wilson has given up 10 runs and 4 HR in just 12 innings of work this year with the large majority of the damage coming from the left side. Now – the hard part with stacking Jays is that they may only have one lefty in the line-up with Cavan Biggio so the “splits” are not as clear to attack.

There is one path for the right-handed hitters though and that is Wilson’s sinker, a pitch he throws nearly 40% of the time to batters from the right side. This is a pitch type that all of Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien and Randal Grichuk hit and hit well with Semien (.294 ISO) and Grichuck (.318 ISO) leading the charge.

These two teams correlate incredibly well on DraftKings with the Blue Jays infield dominant roster and the Braves likely taking up at least 2/3 of your OF with Acuna/Ozuna. With two pitchers who struggle with hard contact and opposing batters who profile well, buckle up for some DFS fireworks!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

We have a massive slate here tonight to sort through when making our MLB DFS picks and with a game in Coors Field, it will likely draw much of the ownership even on such a large slate.

Personally, I think the offense is the priority on this slate but I do not feel the need to eat Coors Field chalk when I could argue the Braves/Jays game environment is just as good and has far more talented rosters to draw from. The fact that the DK pricing on arms is soft in the mid-range, gives us a path to all the big bats without having to sacrifice on K upside from our bargain arms!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Monday, May 10th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Someone has a case of the Monday’s

Nothing like kicking off your week with a Monday MLB DFS slate that has just six games and likely will have only five come lock with massive weather concerns in Coors Field with freezing temperatures and rain/snow expected during the day. Oh, and by the way, I would get a strong drink before looking at the pitching options – because well, it is terrifying.

I am not going to spend a ton of time on the pitching because to me, I am likely going to work backward on this slate, prioritizing hitters while keeping a very tight core of arms in consideration.

I think that this slate will set up where people will take risks at SP, especially on DraftKings where we need two arms, but I am going to take a different approach – playing it straight at SP and looking to avoid the landmines.

That means my pitcher pool will be some combination of Alex Wood, Tyler Mahle and Kyle Gibson. The options are gross. Paying nearly $10K for Alex Freakin Wood is gross. However, we are all dealt the same hand here tonight, and sometimes on these slates people will throw caution to the wind and take shots on guys that have no business being in lineups.

So I am going to be boring and pay the premium for arms that I think can get me 20 DK points each and hope that A) my bats do the talking and B) the random arms that have ownership tonight get blown up.

Paying for two arms is going to likely take you out of consideration for the big stacks tonight but there is one stack I think tonight that stands out with elite talent and far too cheap pricing – and that is the Cincinnati Reds against RHP Mitch Keller.

Just looking at the metrics, Keller you can argue is the single worst arm on this slate – with a near 6 SIERA, an xFIP over 6, a 17% BB rate and a SS% rate of under 8% – all of which are at the bottom or minimally in the bottom 3 among SP’s on this slate of pitching poo.

This season, Keller is giving up a near 50% hard contact rate with a .196 ISO to LHB and .239 ISO to RHB. This Reds line-up has a .232 ISO mark against RHP this season with 5 batters sporting .200+ ISO marks in the heart if their line-up this season.

The lefties – Jessie Winker, Mike Moustakas and Tyler Naquin all have .280+ ISO marks against RHP this season. Both Moustakas and Naquin have .200+ ISO marks against the curve which is Keller’s primary offering off his fastball to lefties and Naquin specifically has a 52% HC rate and 94 MPH exit velocity which ranks as the top mark among left-handed bats in the Reds line-up.

The right-handed big sticks like Nick Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez have .270 and .230 ISO marks against RHP so this is a spot where you can literally go 5 deep with every single hitter sporting massive power against a pitcher who is giving up hard contact and power to hitters from both sides of the plate!

Nick Senzel ($3.1K) also becomes a super valuable part of this stack – both from a salary relief perspective, but you get a lead-off man you can use at 2B or OF on DK. Senzel is more of a stack play than a one-off as his path to value really correlates with the big bats behind him as his strengths lie in a team-high walk rate (important with Keller’s command struggles) and his team-high 80% contact rate to RHP this season.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This MLB DFS slate is gross – it is ugly – it is scary to put your hard-earned American or US Dollar equivalent (that is for you Ghost) – but up on the line. But here is the thing – we all have the same player pool – so we are all playing from the same angle.

The key on a slate like this where we do not have elite arms to anchor to is to avoid unnecessary risk and instead lean on the slim pitching options we do have while still building elite stacks. The Reds stack tonight is the perfect core GPP anchor because it allows us to attack arguably the worst arm on the slate with elite power bats that are priced reasonably and still allow you to pay for the “top-end” arms.

Good luck tonight all!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Friday, May 7th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Where to go at Pitcher?

Looking at this slate initially, we have tons of high dollar arms available to us when picking our MLB DFS picks at pitcher but honestly, none of these are ace level arms I feel like I simply have to have.

The best arm on the slate in my opinion is LHP Trevor Rogers ($8.8K) who has a 32% K rate and 14.6% SS rate since the start of 2020 which would rank him 2nd in both metrics of all the arms on this slate and yet he is priced as the 8th highest arm on DraftKings.

Rogers just faced this same Brewers team and struck out 7 in 6 scoreless innings for 28 DK points. The Brewers have the 5th highest K rate in baseball against LHP at 29.2% and the bottom of this order, hitters 4-8, all have 26% or higher K rates against southpaws and that is before we get to the pitcher batting 9th.

Rogers is an SP1 priced far too low and I am just going to take the free square here today in all formats.

Now the SP2 decision is much less clear but I think we have one obvious punt choice. What if I told you there was a pitcher with a 28% K rate, 4 % walk rate and a 50% GB rate to right-handed batters in 2021 and will face 6+ of them in the opposing line-up?

Would you not be interested in Win Daily fan-favorite Mike Foltynewicz ($6.8K)?

Folty has his warts for sure this year, especially with hard contact, but facing a Mariners projected line-up with a 26% K rate to RHP since 2020 and a team overall that ranks 8th in baseball with a 25.7% K rate against RHP in 2021- this is a team we can attack.

What really jumps out to me – the Mariners rank 2nd to last in all of baseball with just a 29% hard contact rate against RHP which means we have a high K team that generates mostly soft contact – an ideal spot in my mind to use a pitcher like Folty who has struggled with opposing hard hits.

I want to throw one other name out and listen, it’s gross – but hear me out. Brad Keller ($4.9K) against the White Sox. Yes, I told you it was gross.

However here is the thing about the White Sox as currently constructed – they are simply not that good against RHP – they rank bottom 5 in ISO and hard contact and have the highest GB rate in all of baseball at 53%.

Why does this matter? Well Keller is a ground ball machine with a 50% GB rate since 2020 which ranks as one of the top marks on today’s slate.

That is it – that is kind of the argument. Keller has minimal swing and miss stuff and those game logs show you a massive floor with two games of negative scores this season. Yeah he went full Ponce De Leon – TWO TIMES already in 2021.

However, the flip side is he has had solid games against the Tigers and Angels where in both cases he got 9 ground ball outs, racked up 4-5 K’s and got 15-20 DK points as result.

Listen, you are not going to feel good about it – but I could absolutely see a path where Keller goes 6 innings, gets the Sox to pound the ball into the ground, limits the damage and gets a few punchouts and gives you a solid return. At under $5K – he is literally cheaper than almost every bat you’ll end up using alongside him!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Bats and Stacks

Now – going with a Rogers/cheap SP2 du0 on DraftKings is going to leave us some serious salary for batters and well, we are going to want that tonight. My guess is the New York Yankees will be at the forefront tonight against LHP Patrick Corbin and rightfully so.

Corbin has been, well awful, and especially awful against RHB with a .361 ISO, 50% FB rate and a 45% HC rate all with a minuscule 15% K rate. Struggles with right-handed hitters and now has to go face a Yankees right-handed heavy line-up in Yankee Stadium? Yeah, this should end well.

Stack them up, lock in the red-hot Giancarlo Stanton and all his friends and move on – eat the chalk, because it is good chalk.

Finding a second stack is where I think we can get different and get the lower ownership to separate ourselves from the pack.

There is an arm tonight that I do not think people will pick on but I would argue we should. This pitcher has given up a .220 ISO to RHB since 2020 with a 50% fly ball rate and tonight will face arguably the most talented line-up in baseball that is loaded with right-handed pop.

Welcome to the Toronto Blue Jays against RHP Jose Urquidy!

Urquidy may not be an arm we target bats against often but if you dig into his pitch data, this seems like a massive trouble spot.

It is fascinating to me to see a pitcher so drastically change their approach this early into the season but take a look at the pitch type game logs for Urquidy from Fangraphs.

This push to use the change-up more though I think has been far more match-up based against lefty heavy teams, which when you face the almost entirely right-handed Blue Jays means we are more likely see him revert to a two pitch pitcher tonight with a fastball/slider.

The fastball at that velocity is a pitch that up and down the Jays can handle and when you dig into the slider, well there are some serious individual standouts with Randall Grichuck and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. both with massive ISO marks.

Gurriel ($3.1K) is my favorite one-off HR call here based on his ability to hammer the slider. He has 84 batted ball events on this pitch type to the tune of a .336 ISO with a 90 MPH+ EV and he puts the ball in the air 70% of the time.

Remember, Urquidy has a 53.3% FB rate this year to RHB so we cant guys that can get the ball in the air and Gurriel against the slider matches up incredibly well – calling my HR shot here!

All of Semien, Bichette and Vladdy have .200+ ISO marks against RHP this season and Semien especially profiles well with a 50%+ FB rate. This Toronto team correlates really well with the Yankees as well – as you can use their super star infield with the big Yankee bats in the OF for all the power you could ask for!

The one other spot I wanted to mention is the Minnesota Twins against LHP Tarik Skubal and the brutal Tigers bullpen. Now the risk here – is just rain – as we have rain risk all day and even into tonight but I would argue, this spot is better than the Yankees bats.

Skubal on the year has a 7+ xFIP, with a massive .426 ISO and 66% FB rate to right-handed batters and well, you do not need me to tell you what the Twins have in droves.

The Mitch Garver (Catcher) and Nelson Cruz (OF) pairing could be the perfect pivot off a Sanchez/Stanton/Judge chalk build if this game is able to play and the reality is – Skubal/Tigers pen is a better match-up than Corbin/Washington.

So let me make another call – Skubal has basically abandoned his change this year to righties and is using his slider more. You know what Nelson Cruz’s ISO against sliders from lefties is? Take a guess – I will wait.

Did you guess?

It is .706. Yes seven hundred and six. With a tidy little average distance of 340+ feet and a 55% hard contact rate. Seriously Skubal – throw him a slider just so we can see how far it goes.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This MLB DFS slate is awesome and I love the paths that we have today when making our MLB DFS picks.

For me the core concept is locking in Trevor Rogers and two big bat stacks. The question really comes down to which SP2 and whether or not we can/should pivot off Yankees bats and load up more on Twins/Blue Jays.

Stay tuned to our Discord – come on in and ask questions and let our team help coach you! Happy Friday all!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Thursday, May 5th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Cole or Bust?

Welcome to Thursday’s MLB DFS slate which kicks off early at 1PM EST with 8 games on the slate and that means all day baseball to sweat!

The very first question you have to ask yourself on this slate is what you plan to do with the clear-cut ace in Gerrit Cole ($10.5K)?

Now, this is not about the metrics or the talent, as Adam broke down in today’s Starting Rotation – he is the clear highest upside K arm on this slate. However, with the lofty ownership likely (consider Bieber last night was roughly 60% owned in GPP’s), is there merit to the fade in an effort to make our builds entirely different than those that opt to pay up for their SP1?

If we go this route, then we need to build from the bottom up – meaning, we start at the bottom of the SP player pool and work our way up to find price points we are comfortable attacking.

The first name we come to is Triston McKenzie ($6.6K) – the absolute definition of a GPP arm on this slate. McKenzie’s K rate of nearly 34% and SS rate of over 13% would rank only behind Mr. Cole on this slate but his over 21% walk rate this season has completely stymied whatever jump we expected in Year 2 and it has meant early exits and crooked numbers.

This play is equal parts terrifying and equal parts GPP perfection as the K upside jumps off the page for McKenzie in this spot as he has a 40% K rate against RHB this season and the Royals have 5 of their 9 hitters from that side of the plate.

This is not a question of McKenzie’s stuff – the first inning last game shows you what he is capable of.

I went back and watched the post game for McKenzie and what jumped out to me is how measured he was in his response, how specific he was in understanding his walk issues and how he intends to push more first push strikes going forward.

That first pitch strike issue has really jumped out when you dig into the metrics – he has dropped from 66% of first pitch strikes down to 54% this year – with last game’s 18% rate being a massive season low.

The inability to get ahead in counts, has also meant his pitch mix changes – having to rely nearly 75% of the time in his fastball last start which when you consider last season that mark was just 53%, you realize how the walks are forcing him to become a one pitch pitcher.

Now, looking at the metrics and saying – well if he just throws more first-pitch strikes, he can get ahead in the count and rack up the lofty K metrics – is an overly simplistic view and not one I think McKenzie just flips on a dime and executes. That being said, his price point is at a point where you simply do not find guys this often with the K upside he has and as a GPP player, I would rather be ahead of the MLB DFS crowds when he does make that switch and be willing to absorb the risk that these walk struggles continue.

If we stay in the same game, it is hard to overlook what Danny Duffy ($8.8K) offers us with a near 30% K rate and 14% SS rate on the season. Duffy has now gone 5 straight starts with 20+ DK points, throwing 30 innings, allowing just 2 ER’s and racking up 34 K’s in the process.

As Adam pointed out, there may be a regression in the ERA but the K rate is very much real and that is all I care about when it comes to MLB DFS picks for GPP play.

If you want to go even cheaper – the top value arm besides McKenzie in my eyes is Taijuan Walker ($7K) who is going to get the advantage of the massive split against a right-handed heavy Cardinals team which plays into his 25%K rate and 6% walk rate splits benefit.

Honestly – I think McKenize and Walker could be the absolute perfect pairing for GPPs as a way to go heavy with your bats and build a lineup that looks totally different than those who plug in Cole as an SP1.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Time to Stack

If you take the approach to fade Cole and go K hunting in the value range, you are doing so with an eye on bats – the ones that can do some serious damage and thankfully we have multiple such spots today.

Let’s not bury the lede here – it is Jon Lester day and he has to face – oh boy, the Atlanta Braves.

Lester did exactly what he always does in his first start against Miami – straight up tight rope act. He had a 6.8 xFIP, an under 7% swinging strike rate and gave up 45% hard contact – and you know what that resulted in? 5 innings of shutout ball.

This is why Lester is my DFS nemesis – the metrics say attack and he just Harry Houdini’s it every time.

However, let’s be real – navigating the Marlins line-up is not even remotely the same as trying to get through this right-handed heavy Braves line-up – especially at the top with Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies all sporting massive ISO marks of .230, .350 and .280 against LHP since the start of last season.

That trio is at the core of my lineup building today and stacking the Braves right-handed batters alongside Freddie Freeman gives you the “late-night” or is it “late afternoon” hammer for this mid-day DFS slate.

The other stack that jumps off the page today to me is the Toronto Blue Jays against Mike Fiers who frankly, you could argue is the worst arm metrics-wise on this slate. Fiers has the highest SIERA, lowest K rate and lowest SS rate of any arms on this slate and in 2021 has surrendered a 50% plus hard contact rate to hitters from both sides of the plate.

Fire up the Molson’s because the Blue Jays are going HR hunting!

Fiers is going to rely heavily on his sinker to both sides of the plate and well, I have bad news for you Mike – the Jays hammer this pitch type. Both Cavan Biggio and Marcus Semien have .300+ ISO marks against it while Bichette, Teoscar and Grichuk all have .200+ marks. The one guy that struggles with it is actually Vladdy but you aren’t going to skip him in a Jays stack just because of this one metric.

The Jays and Braves actually correlate really well from a stacking perspective as well. The Braves are very OF heavy with Acuna/Ozuna which is perfect for a Jays team that is more infield centric when it comes to their fantasy production. Mix and match these stacks and watch the home runs fly!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Nothing better than the sun shining and all day MLB DFS to play and with elite arms and big bats to stack, we are going to have a fun tournament slate on our hands.

Ownership will matter for me on an 8 game slate and if Gerrit Cole’s ownership is inflated, you have to realize that those who opt to pay up for him are likely all going the same route with their bats. So fading Cole to me is not about just fading him, it’s about fading those builds, and by doing so I can attack two high octane offenses in the Braves and Blue Jays and allow my bats to do the talking!

Happy Lester Day!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Wednesday, May 5th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome in to Wednesday’s 11 game MLB DFS slate where we have some continued rain concerns in Boston and Minnesota, elite high dollar arms, under-priced SP2’s and some high dollar stacks to plug into our MLB DFS picks!

At first glance on this slate, the obvious studs up top in Shane Bieber and Yu Darvish jumped out, but as I scrolled down and saw the price points on Martin Perez and Brady Singer, my usual “double ace” mindset quickly shifted to a “double SP2 mindset.”

It was reassuring to see that Adam Strangis had the same reaction in today’s Starting Rotation – so it made me wonder if going with the two cheap arms was a viable route tonight.

If going with Martin Perez ($6.6K) and Brady Singer ($5K) on DraftKings, I think what makes them appealing is that they are not guys you are simply hoping “get you there” and instead, I would argue they have paths to 20+ DK point ceiling which would smash these price points and offer you ceiling level returns.

Perez is coming off a 21 DK point, 7 K outing against the Rangers and steps into a match-up today with the Tigers that has essentially been a 20 point lock for lefties this season.

As you can see in the chart above from Statmuse – every single one of the last seven LHP to face the Tigers has put up 20 DK points or more (yes I am rounding Logan Allen’s 19.7 up). Every single one of them!

Singer meanwhile, is expected back after taking a comebacker last start that forced him to leave early and his price drop to $5.5K seems – well, wrong. Singer has averaged just under 24 DK points per game over his previous three starts, going 18 IP over those starts with just 2 ER and a 20:3 K:BB ratio. Why exactly did his price go from $8.3K just a few starts ago down to this?

The point is – I think you have a strong argument where both Perez/Singer could get you in the 20-25 DK point range based on their 2021 form and opponents tonight and if you are getting that kind of performance for two punt arms – I am wildly interested.

One of the reasons I think this path is viable tonight is that we have big-time offenses and high-priced ones that look to be in elite spots – and that is the

The Red Sox will get Casey Mize to start before attacking the worst bullpen statistically in all of baseball in Detroit. No bullpen in baseball has given up more ER’s or more HR’s than the Tigers this season and with Mize failing to get past the 5th inning now in two starts, allowing 11 ER in the process, you get the double dose for Boston where they rack up runs early on Mize and then feast late on the Tigers pen.

There is another team on this slate, trotting out a hittable SP and a bullpen that ranks among the bottom 8 in ER’s allowed and HR’s surrendered in 2021 and that is the Texas Rangers taking on the loaded Minnesota Twins line-up.

LHP Hyeon-Jong Yang will get the start for Texas as a low K arm that is not fully stretched out and has to face a Minnesota lineup that is just LOADED with right-handed power. It all starts with Byron Buxton and Nelson Cruz if you are getting guaranteed at-bats against a lefty, but also we need to watch to see if Miguel Sano ($3.3K) is activated today with Alex Kiriloff injured and scheduled to see a hand specialist.

What I love about these two teams is how well they correlate when building your MLB DFS Picks.

At catcher – you can flip back and forth between Mitch Garver or Christian Vazquez. At third base, you can move easily between Josh Donaldson or Rafael Devers and at SS the same applies to Jorge Polanco and Xander Boegarts.

The price points are nearly identical on these two teams so it makes for easy mix and match opportunities, especially for those looking to MME/3-entry type builds where you can attack the same match-ups and team by simply swapping out key players in the same basic build type.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This looks like a phenomenal GPP slate where our MLB DFS picks can really explore avenues that allow us some high-upside builds anchored around slate breaking offenses and under-priced arms with paths to ceilings.

Tonight, I think exploring a “double-punt” strategy with Singer/Perez in an effort to stack the big bats of the Red Sox and Twins, will give you a path to massive upside which is exactly what we want for the tournament focused lineups.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Saturday, May 1st edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown

We get a nice looking 7 game MLB DFS slate here to start off Saturday that frankly, is not all that obvious to navigate, especially on the pitching front as we lack clear ace arms and the offenses on this slate present difficult match-ups for the second tier arms we have to choose from.

On slates like this, where the match-ups are tough and the pitching choices become less transparent – I side with strikeout ability and simply look to avoid the landmines.

The first arm that I want today is LHP Jesus Luzardo who gets a home start against the same Baltimore Orioles team he just faced in Camden Yards. What stands out for me in that start is the high number of swinging strikes that Luzardo racked up – a total of 14 – giving him a 34% SS% in that game which resulted in 8 strikeouts.

Luzardo, like many of the Oakland arms, has significant splits as a result of their spacious home ballpark and with today’s game on his home turf, I think we could see a ceiling game. In his short career thus far, Luzardo has a 2.79 ERA at home compared to a 6+ ERA on the road, with a K rate that is 4% higher and most importantly, a HR/9 rate that drops from 1.73 to .39 when he is at home.

Luzardo’s swing and miss stuff is how you unlock his DFS ceiling and with home runs being his issue in his last start, I think the shift to his home ballpark with a massive pitcher’s umpire scheduled to be behind the plate – we lock in the A’s young lefty.

It may seem odd to go in this order- but I would argue my SP2 is Lance Lynn, who is actually the highest-priced arm on the slate. The price is at its highest point of the year after a 10 day IL stint due to a strain in his back- an injury that let’s face it – is scary when you are paying nearly $10K the first time back on the mound – and that is why he is more a SP2 for me than a priority arm.

The thing with this slate though is that I think you have more risks than “known” commodities so anchoring to Lynn makes sense as he has struck out 10 and 11 batters in his last two outings including his last start where he racked up those 10 K’s against the very same Indians squad he will face today.

From a bats perspective, we have a ton of great offenses on the slate and frankly, it is hard not to simply go right back to the New York Yankees against Spencer Turnbull today. The wind is once again blowing out at 15-20 MPH in Yankee Stadium and you get a mediocre SP followed by one of, if not the worst, bullpen in all of baseball.

Turnbull historically has been able to avoid trouble due to his high ground ball tendencies but so far in 2021 that has not been the case as his 50% GB rate has dropped to 33% and his fly ball rate has elevated to 48%. Now, it would be easy to cite small sample size but Turnbull has made pitching mix changes that might give us an idea of the change in batted ball profile as he is throwing his fastball 10% less than he has in his career and has seen a spike his his curveball usage.

That curveball increase seems counter to what the metrics would say he should do as it has the highest ISO of any pitch type at .200+ and it generates a ground ball rate 12-15% lower than his fastball/sinker repertoire.

With a 41% HC rate this season and a barrel rate of 13%, this could be a really troublesome spot for Turnbull before he turns it over to a Tigers pen that has given up the most HR’s in baseball (20) and has a 6.7 ERA that is a full run higher than any other pen in the majors.

This early slate for me is where we go with a 5 man Yankee stack – alongside Lynn/Luzardo – attacking big bats and two elite K arms and let others make the mistake of using the landmine arms that could sink their slate before it even begins.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

The 6 game Main Slate is in many ways, a carbon copy of the early slate – where we have solid arms but terrible opposing match-ups and more landmines to avoid than arms I actually want to roster.

I mean sure – Brandon Woodruff and Anthony DeSclafani are talented but I do not make a habit of attacking the Dodgers and Padres lineups – far more risk than reward.

As Adam Strangis broke down in his Starting Rotation today, this looks like a slate where we simply live up top and I tend to agree with him that the clear top arms when aligning talent and match-up look to be Dustin May and Eduardo Rodriguez.

In both instances, you have elite K arms, facing high K teams – and on this slate, you simply are not finding many other spots where that aligns for arms – so this seems like a spot where we simply play it straight.

Again, much like the early slate I want to anchor to a high octane offense and the one that stands out to me is the Atlanta Braves against the Blue Jays bullpen game with lefties Travis Bergen and Tommy Milone scheduled to start.

We have seen the park in Dunedin play as a bandbox and this Atlanta offense mashes LHP with all of Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna having .260+ ISO marks against lefties since 2019. You can even extend this stack to the bottom of the order with Austin Riley and Pablo Sandoval who have .282 and .215 ISO marks respectively against LHP since 2019 and all of a sudden you get a full-on 5 man Atlanta stack that can do some serious damage.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

While we may have split slates today in our MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the reality is both slates play pretty similarly in my eyes. We need to anchor to the high K arms in the safest spots and most importantly avoid the landmines and we do so wrapped around the power stacks of the Yankees/Braves.

Enjoy the day – watch lineups and take advantage of value – weekend MLB DFS is almost always where we find the $2K punts that open up entirely new roster builds!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!