The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Christmas Day showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 16 NFL DFS contests!
Welcome to a special Christmas Day Showdown edition of the preview!
The chalk in this game will be mostly a battle of RBs, with Dalvin Cook having the edge based on his logged 2020 ceiling of 50 points and his matchup-proof reputation. The red one in the matchup rank will scare a few folks off, so I’m still buying in all formats – looking at about 50% ownership as the CPT on FD and slightly less than that on DK. Alvin Kamara could be a sneaky pivot, although Cook is the safer option in cash games. On DK, it will take some finagling to squeeze both Cook and Kamara in, but I’m going to try. Latavius Murray still gets his fair share of touches, too – and he’s facing his old team for you Narrative Street whizbangs.
With Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith out, we can look to the Saints WRs and TEs for value, paying particular attention to Emmanuel Sanders, Lil’Jordan Humphrey (I can’t tell you how long I’ve waited for a reason to type out his name) and Juwan Johnson. Keep any eye on the status of Marquez Callaway, who was just activated from IR. He could be a great value if active, which would slightly ding both Humphrey and Johnson.
I don’t mind Josh Hill’s minimum price in like 2/10 GPPs, and the right kicker and QB – be it a somewhat rusty Drew Brees or the always compelling Kirk Cousins could round out a team with plenty of upside.
Justin Jefferson has gone a couple of weeks without a receiving TD, so I think he’ll notch another one, but his price point makes Adam Thielen the better value with a similar ceiling, as he’s about $600 cheaper on DK.
I’ll have some shares of the Saints DST in some builds that focus on Cook/Kamara/Saints value WR/TE and avoid Cousins and the two big Minnesota WRs, but the Vikings, especially since the Vikings have allowed DSTs to score about two thirds more fantasy points than the average opposing DST over the last three weeks.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.
DO: Play Dalvin Cook and Kamara in GPPs, preferably together.
DON’T: Forget about the Saints DST in some builds. I’d shooting for about 35-40 percent GPP ownership.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with Chargers-Saints on MNF, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 5 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Some notable injuries: The story of this game will likely be told by who is available on defense for the Saints, who are one of the best defenses in the league when healthy. The injury-riddled Saints have already ruled out CB Janoris Jenkins (shoulder) and CB Justin Hardee (hamstring), and both DE Marcus Davenport (toe), and playmaking CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) turned in limited practices leading up to this game. DT Sheldon Rankins made an appearance on the injury report and didn’t practice on Saturday because of a thumb injury, and he’s also listed as questionable.
The Saints offensive line has some injuries too (G Andrus Peat and T Ryan Ramczyk), which could affect their RB usage in attacking the Chargers run defense. If Ramczyk plays they might pound the right side more since Joey Bosa (triceps) didn’t look great in Week 4.
On the Chargers side, we have rookie RB Joshua Kelley and the recently activated Justin Jackson handling backfield duties while Austin Ekeler (hamstring) recovers on IR. QB Justin Herbert seems ready for prime time, and he’ll be asked to shoulder a heavy load on Monday night. He makes for a solid contrarian captain pivot in this showdown.
The obvious chalk at captain will be Alvin Kamara, who has 45-point upside given the 1.5x multiplier and the fact that Michel Thomas (ankle, coach’s decision) is still out. Latavius Murray is a viable contrarian CPT choice as well, since the Saints could try to salt this thing away with traditional north-south running and goal line plunges if they jump out to a large lead.
There’s still a case to be made for Drew Brees at CPT in what may be his final game facing his old team, and that’s an interesting narrative if not a likely positive outcome. There’s some inefficiency to his game lately and the Saints would be silly not to capitalize on their strong rush offense.
Emmanuel Sanders and Tre’Quan Smith are both high-risk options but should be sprinkled throughout your lineups with the news coming this weekend that Thomas is being disciplined and kept out of action tonight. I kind of like Jared Cook (groin, probable) for his two-TD upside in GPPs at what should be relatively low ownership.
If you’re stacking Herbert with Chargers WRs, you’ll be looking at Keenan Allen and company (Hunter Henry should really eat this week, Mike Williams is questionable but trending upward, and Jalen Guyton could even be an option) in what could be smash spot against a battered Saints secondary.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Focus too much on defenses, the sub-2K on DK players (not a lot there) or the Saints passing game tonight, though it’s a viable contrarian play to stack Brees with Cook and a WR if you’re entering large-field MMEs.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Ignore the effectiveness of Latavius Murray this season. The Saints are a different offensive team now and Murray’s bruising style has been one of their strengths,
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Drew Brees (DK $15,900, FD $16,000)
Pivot: Josh Jacobs (DK $14,400, FD $13,500)
Contrarian #1: Alvin Kamara (DK $17,100, FD $14,000)
Contrarian #2: Emmanuel Sanders (DK $13,200, FD $10,000)
Contrarian #3: Darren Waller (DK $11,100, FD $11,500)
Predicting showdown ownership in NFL and NBA is always tricky, because of the last-minute adjustments that folks tend to make reacting to late-breaking news (I did it just last night in the Lakers game by removing Rajon Rondo from all my showdown lineups in the minutes before lock). But I have a feeling folks will be starting a lot of lineups with Drew Brees up top and filling the rest in with affordable options. It’s certainly a viable strategy this week given the softer pricing and absence of Michael Thomas (ankle), who’s already been ruled out.
I will likely be using Josh Jacobs at MVP in my builds, however, since he has the most guaranteed touches and what I feel is the most upside in this game as a true workhorse back. It’s not a contrarian play, but it’s a way to differentiate your lineups (especially on FanDuel) and get some built-in variance in a format that requires it.
This is a game the Raiders can win, especially if they dominate time of possession, and we don’t often see the Saints without their top WR and the threat of his 5-15 catches per game. If we start with Jacobs (rather than Brees or Alvin Kamara), it’s a lot easier to fit the main offensive cogs from both teams.
Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders and Darren Waller are also MVP options, but the odds are against them dominating the game enough to warrant more than some one-off builds.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Use Drew Brees as your MVP with no Saints position players and the Raiders DST.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary – though we can make the case for including more Saints positional punts given the injury to Thomas.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
It’s time for our Week 17DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs)and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD($7,500) DK ($7,000)
With the Chiefs needing a win to secure a first-round bye, expect Kelce and the Chiefs to come out firing against the Chargers. While they are utilizing their backs a lot in this one, Kelce racked up 7-92-1 in the Week 11 meeting between the two teams and makes for a fine play in all formats.
FD($6,400) DK ($4,900)
While Zach Ertz (ribs, back) resumed practicing on Friday, Goedert still projects to be heavily involved in the Eagles offense this weekend as they try to clinch a division title and make the playoffs. Ertz is nursing some painful injuries and may not be at 100 percent even if he’s active, and it’s obvious the Eagles trust Goedert as a primary receiving option even when Ertz is logging heavy snaps. He’s a fine cash game play on DK and FD.
FD($6,000) DK ($5,800)
The price took a big jump on DraftKings, but Hooper couldbe Matt Ryan’s most popular target in Week 17 in a matchup at Tampa Bay. TheBucs rank 29th against TEs on DK and Julio Jones could be out, funneling moretargets to Hooper. With Calvin Ridley on IR and the running game a somewhat unappealingoption against the stout run defense, we could see a huge game from the bigFalcons TE.
FD($6,200) DK ($5,400)
Waller disappointed last week as the Raiders didn’t havemuch need to throw the ball in the second half as they salted away a win using heavydoses of DeAndre Washington, but this time around they could be forced intomore passing. The matchup is a tough one but Waller had as solid Week 1 againstthe Broncos (7-70-0 on eight targets) and he’ll garner low ownership at anaffordable price.
FD($6,000) DK ($4,500)
Henry had another ho-hum game in Week 16 and remains a riskin DFS, but he could be forced into more pressing duties facing the Chiefs inWeek 17. He had 6-69-0 against the division rival in Week 12 and remains one ofthe top 10 fantasy TEs with some big-game upside. He’s also very affordable onDK.
FD ($5,700) DK ($4,200)
Howard started the season off slowly but now has at leastthree catches and 46 yards in four straight games. This could be the week he getsin the end zone, and he makes for an affordable GPP Bucs passing game stackalong with Jameis Winston and either Breshad Perriman or Justin Watson.
FD($5,300) DK ($3,700)
The Giants have relied on Smith quite a bit the past few weeks, and he’s shown to have a nose for the end zone, with 6-35-2 last week in the OT win over Washington. He’s on the GPP radar for Week 17, even in a tough matchup against Philly.
TylerHigbee, LAR vs. ARI (FD $6,900, DK $5,600) – Cash or GPP
JaredCook, NO at CAR (FD $6,800, DK $5,200) – GPP only
JonnuSmith, TEN at HOU (FD $5,800, DK $4,200) – GPP punt
NoahFant, DEN vs. OAK (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) – GPP punt
FD($4,900) DK ($3,100)
The Ravens look like apretty safe play in cash games against a Steelers offense that has major QB issuesand nothing to play for. I’m locking them into cash games, especially on DK atjust $3,100.
FD ($4,800) DK ($3,200)
I’m not excited aboutplaying the Colts, but they’re a fine cash game play facing the Jaguars – whocould be without RB Leonard Fournette. They have an excellent matchup and the priceis plenty affordable on DK.
Also consider: Minnesota Vikings (DK), BuffaloBills
FD($4,700) DK ($4,300)
The Pats are expensive and there’s some risk rolling them out againsta Dolphins offense that’s looked a heck of a lot better the past few weeks. Butthis defense can score points and there’s no reason to avoid them in GPPs.
FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)
The Panthers QBs have been throwing lots ofinterceptions the past few weeks and this Saints DST takes advantage ofmistakes. I’ll downgrade them a bit if they’re missing Vonn Bell at safety, butthey’re in consideration for GPPs.
Alsoconsider: Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys
FD($4,800) DK ($3,000)
They’re overpriced on FanDuel, but they’re a punt on DraftKings at just $3K. The Lions are a mess right now and the Packers DST is filled with playmakers who capitalize on bad throws and poor blocking. They’re worth plugging in for both cash and GPP on DK.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,300)
Again, I’m not interested in FD, but the price on DK in a favorable home matchup is just too good to pass up. The Raiders have played better lately, but they do have some injury issues to navigate and the Broncos DST will look to close out the season on a high note.
It’s time for our Week 16 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD($6,900) DK ($6,000)
The price continues to rise, and now he’s the mostexpensive TE on both sites. I might stay away from him in a few of my GPPs becauseof what promises to be relatively high ownership, but I’m locking him into cashgames.
FD($6,500) DK ($6,100)
We nailed Waller last week as he exploded for 10-122-0 and was the top-scoring TE despite failing to reach the end zone. This week we could see him snag a score along with his normal smattering of 6-10 targets/catches and 50-100 yards. He’s a solid play in all formats.
FD($6,000) DK ($4,400)
The price is very reasonable on both sites, and it almost lookslike a mistake on DK. Hooper has immense upside and we know that teamssometimes Julio Jones – forcing Hooper into more targets. The Jags defense is afar cry from the unit it was in 2018, and Hooper could go off in Week 16 in asneaky good spot.
FD($6,500) DK ($5,900)
Andrews seems to fly under the radar every weekin GPPs, mainly because there are so many ways for the Ravens to beat you andfolks don’t want to tie their hopes to a TE when so much of their success on thelegs of Lamar Jackson. Andrews is risky, to be sure, but he’s got 25-point upsideand saw eight targets in the Week 4 loss to Cleveland. He’s also pretty cheapon DK.
FD($6,100) DK ($4,700)
Henry is a huge risk in DFS, as he goes through serious scoringdroughts and is typically a boom-or-bust GPP play – and this week is no different.I’m willing to take the chance in Week 16 because the Raiders are among the worstat defending TEs.
FD ($5,700) DK ($4,200)
Death, taxes and playing TEs against the Cards. That’s what the Hollister play boils down to in Week 16. I don’t love the price on FD, but he does have 15-20 point upside in the matchup.
FD($5,100) DK ($3,200)
The Giants will be without Evan Engram once again, so Smithshould maintain an expanded role on offense over the Giants’ final two games.He’s without the monster upside f his fellow receivers, but he’s affordable onDK and could get you 10-15 points.
JaredCook, NO at TEN (FD $6,600, DK $5,000) – GPP only
TaysomHill, NO at TEN (FD $5,200) FD GPP only since he’s a QB on DK
DallasGoedert, PHI vs. DAL (FD $5,900, DK $4,200) – GPP only
MikeGesicki, MIA vs. CIN (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) – GPP punt
TylerEifert, CIN at MIA (FD $4,700, DK $3,200) – GPP punt
FD($4,500) DK ($4,000)
The Ravens could be thetop defense of Week 16 in all formats, but they’re especially attractive incash games against a Browns offense that’s thrown in the towel for 2019 and isprone to multiple turnovers.
FD($4,900) DK ($3,900)
Pittsburgh’s DST is a juggernaut in DFS and has just two games this season where they’ve not reached double digits. The Jets? They’re still the Jets, possibly even more so now that 2019 is basically “in the tank.”
FD($5,000) DK ($3,500)
You’re getting a discount on DK and the Broncos unit will be happy to face a less formidable opponent, as they’ve been tested the past five weeks up against the Chiefs, Texans, Chargers, Bills, and Vikings. They’re playable in cash or GPP.
FD($4,400) DK ($3,700)
The unit has its flaws, but the opponent turns theball over quite a bit. I’m liking the price on both sites and the Seahawks havethe ability to turn this game into more of a defensive slog than the Cards areused to.
FD($3,800) DK ($2,700)
The Saints are a huge bargain on DK at just$2,700 and could see higher ownership with Derrick Henry looking doubtful toplay this week. I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs, and they may even be cashviable despite their recent struggles.
FD($3,800) DK ($2,800)
The Giants could always do some scoring, which means the Redskins can’t be used in cash games, but I like the price and what promises to be low ownership in GPPs. Jump aboard and take the risk.
Today the DFS Injury Report and Breakdown will be a doozy as player health was hit hard in Week 14. To make matters worse, many of those players (i.e. D.J. Chark who is unlikely to be active this week) have been staples in DFS lineups for most of 2019.
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Yikes.
Nevertheless, these injuries shake up the fade/play landscape which means new opportunities exist to gain leverage on the field. I’ll walk you through a brief-to-the-point injury analysis of each DFS relevant player injury, how it might affect their performance, and what to expect from them in Week 15. Later in the week, I’ll give updates on players who have a chance to return after extended absences such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen, and James Conner. Note that all of the following prices are from DraftKings.
Mark Andrews ($8,400)
Andrews’ contusion situation is frustrating for DFS players as showdown slates are already super thin and difficult to navigate. Even though he’s trending in the right direction, Andrews being active and subsequently productive is no guarantee as contusions are extremely painful. To further complicate things, the Ravens have clinched a playoff berth and have nothing to play for, so why would they rush him back? The bottom line is that Andrews being active and productive is not a slam dunk, so monitor the inactive leading up to Thursday night and consider Hayden Hurst and/or Nick Boyle in tournament plays. If Andrews is active, he’s also a tournament play.
Ryan Griffin ($2,200)
Griffin falls into a group of usable tournament tight ends from week to week, so his injury isn’t exactly inconsequential. The short and long of it is this: don’t expect him to be active and if he is, don’t expect much production from him. He’s missed practice two days in a row now. Fade the entire Jets offense in this spot (except for Le’Veon Bell ($9,400) in tournaments).
Noah Fant ($4,100)
Speaking of not a slam dunk to play, Noah Fant injured his ankle on Sunday and reportedly now has significant bruising and pain. My hypotheses is that he suffered an eversion ankle sprain (the opposite direction of when you think of “rolling” your ankle) and is not a lock to suit up against Kansas City. Much like Mark Andrews, if Fant is active, he’s not guaranteed to produce as his ankle injuries make each step painful. Jeff Heuerman ($2,600), his backup, is a deep tournament play if Fant can’t go as the Chiefs are ranked in the bottom 10 in defending the tight end.
Jared Cook ($4,600)/DeVante Parker ($6,400)
Next on the DFS Injury Report and Breakdown are two players who suffered concussions last week. I’m grouping them together as neither of them has had more than one concussion previously. Cook has had only one other documented concussion in his career and Parker hasn’t had any. This matters because the medical literature tells us that only after the third concussion does symptoms of concussion and overall recovery time significantly stall. Parker and Cook should both be active and are smash cash plays against the lowly Colts and Giants secondaries respectively.
Update: Both Parker and Cook have practiced in a limited fashion as they make their way through the concussion protocol. What that means is that every day at practice a member of the medical staff re-evaluates them based on a series of tests and measures ranging from concentration to headaches and their ability to track moving objects with their eyes. As I mentioned before, Cook has only one concussion in his past and Parker has none. Unless there is something missing in their history, I’m relatively confident Parker is active and more confident Cook will be active as well given the extra day he has to recover. The flip side here is that neither are cash plays because there is risk for another concussion for both.
Jameis Winston ($6,900)
Winston has a hairline fracture in his thumb on his throwing hand. However, it’s a good sign that he re-entered the game in the second half, and it’s an even better sign that he threw three touchdowns following the injury. Even though the fracture is minor, pain/swelling/painful gripping is very much still in play for Winston this week making him a more volatile play than usual (which isn’t really saying much). Just keep in mind that if you start him, Ryan Griffin (the Bucs backup quarterback, not the Jets’ starting eight ends) taking over at some point mid-game is very much within the realm of possibilities. Winston is a cash fade for me this week, but I would consider sprinkling him into tournaments conservatively.
D.J. Chark ($6,200)
Chark was reportedly wearing a walking boot and using a push scooter. This is concerning because those scooters are reserved for dislocations and serious fractures. Now, some teams are pretty dramatic when it comes to protecting injuries, but I’m convinced that Chark’s injury is legitimate as he didn’t practice on Wednesday. The Jaguars entire organization is a dumpster fire right now and the quarterback situation volatile. However, somebody has to catch passes so Dede Westbrook ($4,600) is a cheap tournament play who has been averaging eight targets per game over the last four weeks.
Josh Jacobs ($7,00)
Josh Jacobs’ situation is one of the most bizarre injury situations of the 2019 season. Last week it was revealed that Jacobs has a fractured shoulder and he was inactive. However, for whatever reason the general consensus on Wednesday is that he’s a slam dunk to be active and productive. This is not the case (see my tweet below). As of now, Jacobs is still not a slam dunk to play as a running back needs to be able to take full and repeated contact without further damage. Follow me on twitter for updates on Jacobs. Regardless of his status, Jacobs is a very volatile cash game option this week as the matchup is very enticing.
Update: Jacobs continues to be limited in practice on Thursday and Gruden will not commit to him being active on Sunday. At this point Jacobs has a chance at playing but the Raiders will take it slow. With nothing left to play for in 2019 and as a centerpiece for the franchise moving forward, I would not be surprised if Jacobs sits this week as well to prevent further damage to the shoulder. I’ll be much more optimistic if he gets in a full contact practice in on Friday.
Additions
James Conner
Conner is returning (again) from a sternoclavicular injury he originally suffered in Week Eight and then again in Week 11. He resumed full practice activity this week, but I’m not confident he can stay healthy. This injury is one that can be recurring as the stability of the joint itself is never the same. In other words, Conner is on my “prove it” list before using him in cash games. The risk of re-injury is still elevated for him.
T.Y. Hilton
Hilton began practicing again this week in a limited fashion which theoretically opens the door for him to play on Sunday. However, this recurring calf injury is one that is not going away as evidenced by his poor performance in Week 12 and subsequent inactive in Week 13 and 14. The calf muscle is crucial in pushing off of the ground to sprint and jump, making Hilton a fade in all formats even if he’s active. My hope is that the Colts sit him as a calf injury hypothetically increases the risk for an achilles rupture. There’s no reason to risk that at this point in the season for Indi.
Thank you for reading the DFS Injury Report and Breakdown. As I mentioned earlier, I’ll discuss players who have a chance to return from extended absences later this week (potentially even today). This is definitely a week in which you’ll want to keep up with my updates so, bookmark this page, check back periodically, and follow me on twitter here. Good luck!
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Featured image courtesy of Merson.
It’s time for our Week 14 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD ($6,700) DK ($5,900)
The high-price tight ends haven’t been as reliable as we’d like and Kittle is coming off a disappointing performance against the Ravens, but he’s a lock-n-load cash game play this week facing the Saints indoors. If you’re not looking for value, I’m fine using big George here.
FD ($6,200) DK ($5,800)
With Josh Jacobs a true game-time decision, I’ll be snaggingadditional shares of Waller as his usage should probably increase in Week 14. Thebig TE caught 7-100-0 on nine targets last week vs. the Chiefs, and he’s a goodcash game play again facing the Titans.
FD($6,300) DK ($4,600)
Doyle is a solid play in all formats this week though hisprice has come up substantially after a big Wek 13 performance (6-73-1 on 11 targets).He’s worth considering for cash games and GPPs.
FD($7,100) DK ($6,200)
We’re getting a huge price break on Kelce thisweek on DK, but he remains the top priced TE on both sites. As consistent asany tight end in football, but he’s relegated to GPP-only this week against thePatriots.
FD ($6,400) DK ($5,100)
Henry was a disaster last week but is in a good bounce-backspot facing the Jaguars in Week 14. Even after the stinker in Denver, he’saveraging around 62 receiving yards per game – so I’m willing to give himanother shot in GPPs in Week 14.
FD ($6,600) DK ($5,600)
Andrews is somewhatmatchup proof and did well against the top-rated defense against TEs last week,so we should have shares of him in GPPs. He’s facing the Bills this time around,and they’ve done a good job defending TEs.
FD ($6,600) DK ($6,000)
Hooper doesn’t have an injury designation and returns froma three-game absence, and we’re hoping he’ll continue his breakout season. TheFalcons also get Julio Jones back, so I’m looking at Hooper in GPP only. Thisgame could get pretty high-scoring.
FD($5,600) DK ($4,100)
We discussed how Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value playanymore, but now he’s questionable with an illness that limited him in practiceon Thursday and Friday. He has a good matchup against the Dolphins if he suitsup and isn’t facing a snap count.
FD ($5,800) DK ($4,300)
McDonaldmakes the value play list this week because of the matchup against the Cards,who just cannot stop TEs. He’s been quiet lately, but the Steelers need to getoffense from somewhere in this game, and McDonald is a low-risk optionconsidering the price and the opponent.
FD($5,400) DK ($4,000)
Gesickijust keeps producing, and $4K is still too cheap for what he brings to thetable. The Jets defense is a wreck right now and the Miami offense has beenclicking. Get Gesicki in there if you need salary relief.
FD ($4,800) DK ($4,400)
Rudolph is a top value play this week facing the Lions, andhe has at least four catches in his last three games. That sounds even betterwhen you factor in his red zone usage – as he’s scored five TDs in his lastfour contests.
IanThomas, CAR at ATL (FD $4,000, DK $2,500) – Punt Cash or GPP (He’s this week’sTyler Higbee)
JaredCook, NO vs. SF (FD $6,500, DK $4,200) – GPP only in tough matchup
DavidNjoku, CLE vs. CIN (FD $4,900, DK $3,500) – Risky GPP but high upside
FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)
The Packers have themost favorable matchup of the week (at home vs. WAS) and are an option in allformats. They aren’t cheap, but if you’re spending up, just plug them in.
FD($4,300) DK ($3,500)
The Steelers DST isstill way to cheap and you get a nice discount on both sites. This unit is almosta lock for 10 points every week.
FD ($4,800) DK ($3,800)
This isn’t a high-scoring defense, but the matchup could yield 10+points if they can create some turnovers. If the Vikings can salt this one awaywith the running game, it’ll help the cause of the DST.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)
Andy Dalton is back for the Bengals, but I don’tthink he’ll be having a lot of fun against the bruising Browns unit that stompedthe Steelers a couple weeks ago.
FD($4,600) DK ($2,800)
Probably a DK play only.It’s risky because they are on the road, but the matchup in Jacksonville couldsee the Chargers DST notching their best week since Week 5 against the Broncos.
FD($4,000) DK ($2,400) Last week we had the Jags againstthe Bucs, and that wasn’t even a mistake despite the Jags taking the loss. TheColts are a similar risk but this matchup bodes well for GPPs.
It’s time for our Week 12 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate, focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you take it down!
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FD($6,200) DK ($5,700)
Waller’s price has risen on DraftKings, but dropped a few hundred on FD – but that’s just minutiae. After a seven-target week and another 7-78-0 tacked onto his season total (56-666-3), we’ve got to see him as a solid cash game pick in a week without many sure things. He’s a much-matured player now, has a relatively safe floor and has plenty of upside against the Jets.
FD($6,100) DK ($6,000)
It’s a concern that his price jumped $1K on DK, but he’s coming off back-to-back 11-targets weeks, is looking a lot more like his old self and silencing his critics. I’m not going to overthink my cash game TEs this week. I think Waller and Ertz are the best options unless you’re paying down for a bargain like Mike Gesicki (more on him later).
FD($5,600) DK ($4,200)
Last week I mentioned that Griffin gets no respect in theDK pricing algorithm, and it’s been corrected – kind of. He’s still a solid GPPplay on both sites and has as much upside as any TE this week, coming off a5-109-1 game in Week 11.
FD($6,000) DK ($4,500)
Cookhas a difficult matchup in Week 12 facing the Panthers, who defend TEs quitewell. He’s not my favorite choice this week and his price is a little too highon FD, but his ownership will likely be restricted to Saints stacks, and that’sa good way to get exposure to him in GPPs.
FD($5,100) DK ($4,300)
Coming off two big performance then a Week 11bye, Hollister’s price has shot up to $4,300 on DK, but I think he’s worth it.I’m, not convinced he’s a great cash game play just yet, but he’s certainly gotthe upside to make him a solid GPP play (10-62-1 in Week 10 at SF).
FD($5,100) DK ($4,100)
Olsen had just five targets last week but he went for 5-57-0. If he can have another day like that and add a TD, he’ll be in good shape. This game could get high-scoring (45.5 total), so the game script could help his cause, and Olsen is a target that Kyle Allen trusts.
FD($5,400) DK ($3,600)
The Bucs are playing games with us. Brate was targeted 14times in Week 11, hauling in 10-73-0. He’s on my list of GPP plays because of thematchup and the obvious upside, but I’ll limit my exposure when I feel like I’mgetting toyed with.
FD($5,200) DK ($3,700)
I wouldn’t play Goedert with Zach Ertz, but they both havesolid matchups this week against Seattle. He’s actually been more consistentthan Ertz over the past week weeks, so he’s another cash game option if you’dprefer not to spend up, but I’ll be focusing on him in GPPs because he’s scoreda TD in three of his last four games and has two-TD upside this week.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,400)
Gesickihas been solid, and if the Dolphins are serious about beating the Browns, they’llbe using him. Joe Schobert is questionable, the Browns defense is missing someimportant defensive line components, and Gesicki is an athletic, big-play orientedTE who’s been woefully underutilized. He’s had six targets in each of the lastthree, but that’s just not enough. We could see a 10-target game for him in Wek12, and I’ll be way ahead of the field on my ownership in GPPs.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,100)
Eifert’s price is stilldown and he’s probably going to see more usage in Week 12 against a Steelersdefense that ranks 28th in the NFL against TEs. He’s probably dependenton a TD to be worth using in GPPs, but he did see 9 targets and haul in 6-74-0in Week 9 against the Rams, so he’s got some upside.
BenWatson, NE vs. DAL (FD $5,300, DK $3,100) – GPP
JonnuSmith, TEN vs. JAC (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) – GPP
NoahFant, DEN at BUF (FD $5,100, DK $3,900) – GPP
O.J.Howard, TB vs. NO (FD $5,000, DK $3,300) – GPP
BlakeJarwin, DAL at DET (FD $4,500, DK $2,900) – Punt
FosterMoreau, OAK (FD $4,700, DK $2,800) – Punt
FD($5,000) DK ($3,700)
The Bears, with theirability tot get to the QB, have to be one of the top plays of Week 12 in allformats. Daniel Jones, for as good as he’s looked, is a fumbler. He fumbles theball over and over, and he’ll be in that position on Sunday, likely dodgingBears lineman and being forced into bad throws.
FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)
The Bengals are terrible and the Steelers DST has been one of the most productive units in DFS. They had a bad week against the Browns, but are in an excellent spot for a rebound in Week 12.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,400)
It’s not my favorite thing to go after the Broncos in Mile High, but the Bills should be up to the task of stopping this mediocre offense and creating some turnovers by their inexperienced QB. They are a consensus top-five pick DST in Week 12.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,100)
This is a great matchup on paper, but the Lions could be down some key defensive players in Week 12 (Trey Flowers included), so my use of them will be restricted to GPPs, with the possibility of multiple Dwayne Haskins gaffes still lurking as a distinct possibility. Get some shares in tourneys.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)
The Raiders defenselooks better every week, and the Jets can get a little silly with the turnovers,as you all know. Clelin Farrell and Max Crosby make a mean defensive end combo,so Sam Darnold better be on his toes.
FD($4,200) DK ($2,800)
I’m not looking at too many punts this week for DST, but the Jags make my list. They’ve had a couple of bad losses over the past couple weeks and will likely come out pretty fired up in this divisional matchup. I’m not sold on Ryan Tannehill, and if they can contain Derrick Henry to a relatively pedestrian day, we could see some results.
FD($4,100) DK ($3,600)
The Seattle DST is massivelyunderpriced, especially against an Eagles team that’s missing so many of its offensivecomponents. I’ll have some shares of them in contrarian GPP stacks using Jacob Hollisterand Chris Carson (without Russell Wilson).
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