The James Harden saga is over for the Sixers and now they look to build around Tyrese Maxey. Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo breaks down why he feels they won the trade and some Fantasy trends from the new players.
Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a massive eleven game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 7:00 PM EST and we have a whole lot to break down!
If you have been waiting to join the Win Daily Sports family – now is your chance! Promo code Sweet 16 gets you 16% off the package of your choice – all in time for March Madness.
We open up today’s NBA DFS slate and are met with a massive 11 gamer just 24 hours away from the NBA Trade Deadline and in a season with so much pre-lock (and post-lock) craziness, this slate could end up being a total cluster you know what.
Not only do we have big-name injury news with players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Myles Turner, and Malcolm Brogdon all questionable but we have heavy trade discussions on guys like Aaron Gordon, Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell which is going to make navigating this slate quite tricky.
What it also means more than likely is we will have loads of value and I will keep hammering this home every single slate until the year is over – value dictates slates and stars set the cash line.
The stars we have tonight are the kinds that can win you slates on their own – the types that can go for 70-80 DK points and smash even these $11K price points – and that is exactly how I think we need to attack this slate.
Luka Doncic ($11K) is the most expensive player on the slate and going up against Minnesota, well there is good reason for it. Minnesota over the last 10 games ranks bottom 5 in the NBA in defensive rating, points allowed, FG% allowed, rebounds allowed, assists allowed, turnovers allowed and blocks allowed. Said another way – they stink defensively.
James Harden ($10.9K) gets the flow chart treatment tonight. Are Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant out? Yes. Play James Harden. For context, Harden put up 63 DK points last night against Portland and he did that shooting 29% percent from the floor including 0-7 from beyond the arc. Dude puts up 62 DK points on a night he only hit 7 shots – seriously, think about that for a second.
The only concern with Harden is his continued neck soreness which apparently was really close to making him miss last night. The biggest issue tonight – his game is at 10 PM EST – so if you hold out for him, you are missing out on Luka, Giannis, Joker etc and I think there is significant risk on the B2B.
Nikola Jokic ($10.7K) is fresh off a 71 DK point triple double last night, having now put up 70+ DraftKings points having now gone for 70+ in 5 of his last 10 games.
I am not trying to simply list the obvious plays here tonight – because what I have learned over and over this season, is that the obvious plays aren’t the ones people play.
Take last night as an example – sure everyone played James Harden as their stud but what you realize is people get squeamish going too top-heavy. That left Joker under 15% owned and it left Dame under 10% owned (boy if he didn’t shoot 29% we could have had the “nuts” as they say).
This was my line-up from last night – one that cashed easily in all Single Entry GPP’s and one as you can see was super top-heavy. What it shows you is how the stars can get you to the cash line on their own and that picking and choosing the right value around them is a consistent winning formula.
So listen, going Harden, Luka AND Joker is going to cost you but it leaves you with $3.5K per player for the rest of your build and I am here to tell you once again – IT IS DOABLE!
Guys – I am saying it is doable at 7AM EST – when we don’t even have news yet. On an 11 game slate the day before the trade deadline – more value is coming and so I will be 100% Stars and Scrubs again tonight.
So how do we make it work? Well, we can go right back to the same spots we went to last night in Brooklyn. We know Kyrie Irving is out again as is Landry Shamet – and on a B2B, I do wonder if Blake Griffin has his load managed. That would push TLC ($3.1K) again as a clear value play off the bench who was the first sub off the Brooklyn bench last night and played 27 minutes. With SF and PF eligibility on DraftKings, he is the perfect swiss-army knife value we can mix and match with his multi-position eligibility.
It is a day that end in Y and Brooklyn is playing – so I am contractually obligated to tell you that Nicolas Claxton ($4K) is still too cheap. The industry seems to finally be catching on to what the Ghost Model has been spitting for weeks, but this dude has now gone for 6X or higher in 3 of his last 4 games and would only get added boost if Blake were to sit.
Speaking of last night, Al Farouq Aminu ($3.7K) went off last night in 29 minutes, racking up 44 DK points on the back of a 17 point, 10 rebound and 6 assists performance against Denver. While I do not expect him to shoot 8 for 11 again, the minutes are secure as has been a 5X floor in each of his previous games. Another sub 4K play tonight with 6X upside and allows me to get in all the studs I want – yes please.
Staying in that Denver game – PJ Dozier ($3.4K) saw major run (28 minutes worth) and more importantly, got all the 4th quarter closing run with the starting unit. Dozier has eclipsed 20+ DK points now in 4 of his last 10 games, giving game log watchers comfort that this 6X path has been demonstrated with some serious consistency.
These are just names that jumped out at first glance – punts that can get me 20-25 DK points tonight and I hate to tell you – THAT IS ALL YOU NEED.
Think about it this way – assume the stars get you ceiling games of 70 DK points each (the outcome you are shooting for if you go this route by the way). That means you are sitting at 210 DK points with 5 players to go – meaning you need 18 points per player to “hit 300” or 28 points per player to hit 350.
Last night alone, Dozier (24), TLC (23), Claxton (29) and Aminu (44) got you 120 by themselves – added to your 210 “star trio” and you have 330 DK points with one player left to go.
This is not guaranteed by any stretch but “thinking through” the path is something that you NEED to go every day. If you cannot reasonably argue your build gets you to 300 on DraftKings, then you need to start over. Tonight, anchoring to the 3 stars is the most effective way to get that path outlined.
Stars. Scrubs. Repeat.
We have an 11 game NBA DFS slate the day before the Trade Deadline. We have all the star power we could want, early paths to value and more likely to come, and a path in my mind, that gives you a superstar-focused build (AGAIN) that will set the cash line. Stars. Scrubs. Repeat.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a solid 6 game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 7:00 PM EST and we have a whole lot to break down!
If you have been waiting to join the Win Daily Sports family – now is your chance! Promo code Sweet 16 gets you 16% off the package of your choice – all in time for March Madness.
Before we jump into tonight’s NBA DFS slate, I do think it is important we circle back to last night’s slate and the chaos that ensued post lock with John Wall and Christian Wood announced on minutes limits and Jayson Tatum being ruled out.
This was a massive change to our night as the Rockets/Raptors was our core “pivot” off the Bucks chalk and we were squarely on Tatum with Kemba out of the lineup. However, as we outlined here in Picks and Pivots yesterday, we had two plans outlined – one with the Bucks chalk and one without. I bring that up because when the news broke and it forced us to pivot – honestly, we were ready.
Having that plan B outlined – some lineups already thought through and built – allows you to very quickly adjust without making panic moves. Personally, making the move to a Bucks/Pacers game stack with Jaylen Brown was an easy swap and it ended up resulting in a massive night of profit.
Tonight we have just six games on the slate but the tricky part for us is that the big news of the night sits in the late game of Nets/Blazers with James Harden questionable. Make no mistake – if last night was a Bucks slate because of Giannis being out – this slate is a Nets slate with Durant/Irving already ruled out and now a big Q tag around The Beard.
The one difference – and it is a big one – tonight we only have one game that starts as late as the Nets do and that is Sixers/Warriors. If we do not have news on Harden by 8 PM EST – understand that 4 of the 6 games will have tipped off and your ONLY pivot will be to Warriors and Sixers. With that said, understand that game is your Plan B and you need to be happy moving to that game as a pivot if Harden is ultimately ruled out.
Regardless of the injury tag around James Harden ($11K) – the core tonight stars and ends with him and it is that simple. If Harden is in, he becomes lock city play numero uno with the Nets already down Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
Over the last 15 games, no team in the NBA has a worse defense than the Portland Trail Blazers. Portland ranks bottom 5 in opposing FG%, giving up the highest 3P % to opposing players and ranks bottom 10 in opposing rebounds and assists per game. This is the definition of a smash spot for Harden and my lean is frankly, he plays, especially with active Vegas lines and totals out for this game early in the day.
If Harden plays – I am running it back with Damian Lillard ($10K) and going with arguably the two highest ceiling stars on this slate. With a game total of 236 that is 10+ points higher than any other on the slate, this is a spot where these two alpha guards will be going back and forth all night and I think you have a legit shot at 150 DK points just by pairing these stars together.
Anchoring to these two stars for me is a formality, but I also think it is just the starting point in a Stars and Scrubs build as I believe you can get a third star on DK without much heartburn. That decision likely comes down to Nikola Jokic ($10.7K) or Russell Westbrook ($10.8K).
I lean Joker in this spot for a few reasons and frankly, it has more to do with builds than anything else. With Dame and Harden having PG eligibility only, you become a bit more limited if you use Westbrook while Jokic allows you to lock in a 60-70 point star at your Center position and gives you added flexibility by keeping your Utility spot open.
Jokic is the front-runner for the MVP now with LeBron James sidelined and with 60+ DK points in 7 of his last 10 games, including 3 games with 70+, it is hard to argue there is a player with a more consistent ceiling than Nikola Jokic this season.
Anchoring to a three star build of this magnitude give you three players with legit 70+ DK point ceilings and as we have said over and over again this year, when the value is presented we anchor to the stars that set the cash line – every single time.
On this six-game slate, it really is not overly difficult to find value as injury news presents “new value” on a daily basis. The Lakers value as an example saw their prices tick up to where you have to think about it but with injury news in Brooklyn and a questionable tag for Lonzo Ball, there are other spots to punt plays we can find with ease.
Assuming Lonzo Ball sits, it would open up the starting role for Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4.4K) who has shown massive ceiling when given the chance to run with the starters. In four games this year with Lonzo out, NAW has put up 52, 32 and 27 DK points – meaning he has exceeded 6X value in 3 of the 4 games with slate-breaking scoring upside. With this game being at 7:30 PM EST tip, we should have this news early and I would make sure to slide him into your SG spot on DK so you lock in that role early and leave your G/F/UTIL for the late games to maximize flexibility.
The absence of Kyrie Irving tonight means big time value in Brooklyn against the worst defensive team in the NBA the last month – so sounds like the perfect time to unleash the punt plays.
With Landry Shamet also sidelined, this opens up even more fringe playing time for the Nets guards/wings and I want in! Bruce Brown ($4.2K) provides arguably the safest route of the low-tier plays from Brooklyn as we have seen him average 25 DK points in the previous two games Kyrie mised against the Pacers and Mavericks.
Timothe Luwauw-Cabarrot ($3K) and Tyler Johnson ($3.1K) become two really intriguing punt options for Brooklyn as both will be locked into major minutes. I wonder if we see the Nets move Jeff Green to the bench and slide TLC into the starting lineup tonight against a smaller Portland line-up – the Nets have gone small the last two times that Kyrie sat – opting to move move one of Jordan or Green to the second unit and if that is the path they take tonight, my guess is TLC moves into the starting unit while Tyler Johnson becomes the primary second team ball-handler.
Both Nets are in play for me tonight regardless of lineup decisions as the injury to Landry Shamet gives them a path to major bench minutes. I would be doing a disservice if I failed to mention Ghost’s favorite player – Nicolas Claxton ($3.9K) who just continues to shine as a FP/M producer. Even with Blake Griffin in the rotation, Clax had another monster performance, putting up 27 DK points in 26 minutes with 7/10 shooting from the floor.
Now, do not overlook the potential value on the other side of this game either. The last two games against Dallas, Portland ran a really tight core with essentially an 8-9 man rotation if you ignore the blowout run in the latest game.
Derrick Jones Jr. ($3.7K) has played 30 and 32 minutes in the previous games (non-blowouts) with a ceiling effort of 27 DK points against New Orleans included. If you give me 30 minutes under $4K against the Nets “defense” – I am in.
With CJ McCollum still working his way back from injury, it has allowed Rodney Hood ($3K) to carved out a role playing 20 minutes off the bench as the primary second unit ball-handler when Dame subs out. In the previous game versus Dallas (the one that was not a blowout), he actually got the entire 4th quarter run alongside the starters and dropped 21 DK points, which would put him at 7x value on his minimum price.
This is a great NBA DFS slate and one that I think lends itself to a Stars and Scrubs mentality. Assuming James Harden is in, that late night hammer of Dame/Beard is going to determine the cash line in my opinion and I plan to anchor my builds to it.
On a slate where we have so much star power on the injury list, we once again have multiple paths to value and that lends itself to a Stars and Scrubs build where I think getting in three of Harden, Dame, Joker or Westbrook is a core build that will set your cash line position while the punt value puts you in a position to make it all happen!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a massive 10 game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 7:00PM EST and we have a whole lot to break down!
If you have been waiting to join the Win Daily Sports family – now is your chance! Promo code Sweet 16 gets you 16% off the package of your choice – all in time for March Madness.
This Wednesday NBA DFS slate is a monster with 10 games on the slate and a whole lot of injury news to sort through. The Raptors may be without both Pascal Siakam & Fred VanVleet again tonight while all of Kemba Walker, Christian Wood, and Victor Oladipo are listed as doubtful to play. With 20 teams in the player pool and teams on B2B’s – I think we can comfortably say the value will be there for us once again!
I harp on this all the time in Picks and Pivots but VALUE DRIVES SLATES.
Do you know why the cash line was so high last night? Because a 70% owned Moses Brown at near minimum price went for 50+ and those savings were used for stars like Dame & LeBron who also put up ceiling games. Value opens up slates and paths to stars and when we have those slates we have to take that Stars/Scrubs approach. It has proven itself out this year in NBA DFS on a nightly basis and if we do not learn from those trends – we will never consistently cash.
There is SO much value at first glance today that this slate sets up for me much as it did on Monday Night, where getting 3 stars was the anchor of my NBA DFS builds.
We have five players priced above $10K on this slate and candidly, I see no reason to think having 2-3 of these players in our builds is not the right starting approach.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11K) and Nikola Jokic ($10.8K) are the two pricey investments that I find myself most intrigued by early on.
Giannis gets to take on the Sixers without Joel Embiid inside after already putting up 67 and 73 DK points against this Philly team this season in games Embiid was on the court.
Jokic meanwhile gets to take on the vaunted Hornets duo of Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo. No really – that is who is going to try and slow him down tonight. I cannot wait for Ghost to post the “no one…no ooooooone” GIF when I ask in Discord who is stopping Jokic.
These are the kind of stars – the 70+ DK ceiling type plays that are going to set the cash line for you. The issue is, with other pivots in the same price range like James Harden and Luka Doncic, not only will ownership be spread out BUT you also have multiple paths to these kinds of builds succeeding. The fact you can get 2 and even 3 of these stars in your builds tonight is out of control! Think about it – Giannis, Joker, and one of Luka/Harden – could put up at 200-250 DK points ON THEIR OWN.
So if you go Stars and Scrubs – what is the likelihood that ALL of these stars have down games? You are going to have multiple ceiling plays from this group and so with that concept, I think you have to start your builds with this range and work backwards to the value.
And guys – it does not stop above $10K – go right below and you have star power from guys like Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Damontas Sabonis. Again the path to having 3 stars on this slate is simply too easy and you have so many paths to making that build work.
Of the group noted above – I have a lot of interest in Steph Curry ($9.8K) under $10K on DraftKings. Tonight Curry gets to take on the Rockets who will be without John Wall, likely without Victor Oladipo, and need one body who didn’t play last night to suit up just so Houston can field an 8 man team!
We have been using Houston for value in DFS routinely and we should again tonight – but let’s not overlook what this undermanned unit has meant to the opposition. Over the last 10 and 15 game stretches, the Rockets rank 3rd and 4th lowest in team defense, giving up the 2nd most points per game and ranking second to last in opposing 3P% while giving up the 4th most three-pointers per game.
Not sure if you guys know but this Curry guy is pretty good at shooting long range basketballs.
On a night where I expect to use multiple cheap Rockets – why not run it back with Curry at a discount in the “SMASH SPOT” as your – *laughs as he writes this* – third star in. Seriously imagine building a lineup and going – I have so much room even after locking in Giannis AND Joker, why not add Steph Curry in too. I feel like Space Jam putting together the Monstars.
The value on this slate likely starts with the Houston Rockets who had only 8 healthy bodies last night and looked primed for that once again tonight. The difference is – tonight Victor Oladipo will likely sit which means one of Christian Wood, Daniel House or Ben McLemore has to play tonight JUST TO GET 8 PLAYERS.
But let’s not act like this is the only value spot – in fact the value is going to come largely from the same damn places we have been using the last few nights. Tomas Satoransky has started back-to-back games, put up 33 and 31 DK points and his price is still $3.8K. Why are we overthinking this?
Daniel Thies ($4.1K) was an optimal play last night, dropping 40 DK points against the Jazz with Tristan Thompson in COVID protocols and now he gets the Cavaliers. Yep – right back to this one too.
There is obvious value as we noted above, the kind that draws the ownership and rightly so – but do not think for a second it is the only value you can use.
I was harping the Spurs bench value on Monday Night and it was essentially ignored by the industry but not for those in the Win Daily Sports Discord.
The Spurs will once again be without DeMar DeRozan and with LMA jettisoned – you are left with a nine man rotation of, well – “stuff.” And while “stuff” isn’t exactly a reason to play these guys – a match-up with the Bulls is – and my focus is once again on the cheapies – specifically the first two men off the bench for San Antonio – Drew Eubanks ($3.1K) and Devin Vassell ($3.2K).
These guys are both locked into meaningful minutes, they are the first men off the bench in both the first and second half and what is even better is that as the Spurs get blown out – they get all the 4th quarter run. So you are getting two guys at minimum price, that both went for 6X+ last game and we can run it back again in a better match-up? Yes please.
This slate may have 10 games, 20 teams and a massive player pool – but the strategy is about as easy as you can make it – Stars. Scrubs. Repeat.
Value dictates slates. Value gives you stars. Tonight we have all the value and a clown car jammed with star power. Do not overthink it – starts your builds with the star power that drives the ceiling and work in the slate breaking value that will come in droves.
Keep it simple kids.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to a massive 10 game NBA DFS slate here on Wednesday Night where Picks and Pivots will sort through all the noise and give you a clear GPP strategy to taking down all the money on DraftKings and Fanduel!
Looking to take your game to the next level? Lock in our reduced Gold Membership deal now, getting THREE MONTHS of all sports access for just $79.99 using promo code “Winning” – and let’s get to some green!
Slate strategy is always dictated by value in NBA DFS. Always.
Tonight we have 20 teams on the slate and a massive amount of injury news that is pushing roughly 15 players at $4K or under on DraftKings into real-life NBA starting lineups. If you are not playing Stars and Scrubs tonight, you are doing it wrong – it is that simple.
To summarize what we are looking at tonight:
I try to be transparent when it comes to my advice and as concise and clear as I possibly can. I know you are all busy, you ain’t got time to track all the news so you look to me to help paint the picture.
Well here is the Picasso you lazy mother trucker – ALL THE VALUE. ALL THE STARS.
The end.
Now, assuming the Detroit/Toronto game plays without any further COVID impact – between the Raptors and Lakers sans LeBron/AD, I am not sure we even need to get cute with value.
The Raptors are going to be Kyle Lowry ($8.1K) and a roster of punts like DeAndre Bembry ($3.4K) and Terrence Davis ($3.2K). The Lakers get to face the worst defense in the NBA in the last 10 games in Sacramento and will run their offense through guys like Dennis Schroeder ($5.9K), Markieff Morris ($3.7K) and Talen Horton-Tucker ($3.4K).
Now if we get Luka to sit on top of this – I think you see where the path to multiple value plays exist and that means your pick of the Stars.
From a strategy perspective, with so much value to sort through and multiple stars, I think ownership is going to play heavily into your decision-making.
We have James Harden ($11K) without KD heading back to Houston for the first time. All the narratives and all the revenge – and likely all the ownership for good reason. We mentioned Kyle Lowry already as the last man standing for Toronto at just $8.1K.
Not only will “new news” drive ownership today but the concentration of news is going to lead to group think.
Let me give you an example.
All the Raptors are out, Kyle Lowry gets left with all the usage and he is far too cheap considering that role.
Will anyone say the same for De’Aaron Fox ($9K)? The Kings have already ruled out Tyrese Haliburton and Hassan Whiteside and Buddy Hield is questionable so now you get Fox in a similar spot as Lowry where the entire offense will fall on him and he takes on the Lakers JV Squad as an added benefit?
Will anyone say the same for someone like Nikola Vucevic ($10.3K)? The Magic are already without Fultz, Anthony and Gordon and have Evan Fournier listed as questionable. Vuc is putting up 1.5 FP/M this season and 31% usage with all those guys off the court.
I bring players like Fox and Vuc up because they are great examples of where the same logic applies but the ownership likely does not follow. Everyone will flock to Lowry for $8.1K because he is the last man standing but will anyone pay the $900 more to get Fox in an similar spot?
With all this value – sure people will pay for James Harden, but will they double up and grab a $10K center like Vuc too?
This slate is different. This is not a “find a core” at 7AM EST kind of day.
Today, I will be heavily invested in ownership projections and industry buzz. With so much value that I think we NEED to use, the pivot path for me is getting different with my pay ups – that is how we made GPP noise tonight.
If you are a tournament player like me, this is the kind of NBA DFS slate you get excited for. The roster paths are going to be VERY similar with so much value but that is going to lead to some seriously concentrated ownership and duplicate builds.
With the Raptors being short-handed, the Lakers playing without LeBron and AD and ~15 players under $4K projected to start tonight – this is the ideal Stars & Scrubs slate – and the pivot points will be swerving off the field with low-owned stars!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Happy Wednesday my NBA DFS family and friends! After a huge night for the Picks and Pivots core plays, we are back with a nine-game slate to break down on DraftKings and FanDuel and some more money to win!
Looking to take your game to the next level? Lock in our reduced Gold Membership deal now, getting THREE MONTHS of all sports access for just $79.99 using promo code “Winning” – and let’s get to some green!
If you liked yesterday’s money-making Picks and Pivots write up, well then you are going to LOVE this one. We have 9 games on tap with a ton of injury news that will open up all the value we could want and that lets us get to attacking by far my favorite game on the slate – Brooklyn and Indiana.
If you need a reminder of why we attack Brooklyn – go back and look at last night’s slate and what the high-powered Pistons offense (sarcasm detected) was able to do to the Nets.
So tonight we get to attack the same Nets defense on a back to back with a Pacers team that is simply far too cheap.
You could take a similar approach to how we attacked Detroit last night and go with an inside/outside trio with Damonatas Sabonis ($8.6K), Myles Turner ($6K), and Malcolm Brogdon ($7.4K).
Seriously the pricing on Sabonis is downright laughable and he is going to be chalk we want to eat. But much like we saw with Detroit last night, Jerami Grant was chalk but the “add-on” plays like Plumlee/Delon were a fraction of the ownership – so sometimes tacking on that 1-2 extra plays in the same great spot can help you get the ownership edge we want in GPP’s.
No team in the NBA is giving up more point in the paint than Brooklyn right now, so going double bigs seems like an optimal way to attack this and we also cannot overlook that Brooklyn has one of the highest turnover rates in the league since the trade which adds ceiling to someone like Brogdon in the back court.
Now, what we continue to see on a nightly basis with Brooklyn is the ownership – just does not follow them – and so this is where I think you have to get run back to really take that GPP mindset to the next level.
James Harden ($10.4K) has now put up 62, 62 and 59 DK points in the three games with Kyrie Irving on the floor with Kevin Durant sidelined and yet we saw last night where he remains under 20% owned on DraftKings and even lower on FanDuel. Why?
We focus on the Brooklyn defense a lot here but let’s not overlook how bad Indiana is. Since the Victor Oladipo trade, the Pacers rank as the 9th worst team in defense rating across the NBA and their perimeter defense has really plummeted as they are giving up 14 3PT’s per game and allowing teams to shoot at just under a 40% clip – both marks that rank among the league’s worst 7 teams in that stretch.
Harden is the lock – the question then is really what we want to do next. I mentioned this in Discord last night, but watching that Nets game unfold, it was obvious that Kyrie Irving was having issues shooting the ball down the stretch. He air-balled a wide-open three and then on the next possession tried to shoot left-handed on a drive to the basket which prompted the Nets play by play crew to point out he was shaking his hand on the sidelines. Even in the post-game, Kyrie himself mentioned he just needs to “play through it” which gives me pause paying $9K for that kind of risk.
If we are going to fade Kyrie, then I want the secondary scoring options for Brooklyn and that leads me to Joe Harris ($6K) and Bruce Brown ($4.4K).
Harris was an afterthought last night on the offensive end, but we mentioned the Pacers ineptitude on perimeter defense lately – which sets up perfectly for a Joey Buckets three-point barrage. Brown actually started the second half last night with the Nets opting to scrap their Jeff Green/DJ starting duo and going smaller in the second half – in all honesty, neither worked – but what Brown provides is REALLY interesting for DFS purposes.
Brown racked up 9 boards and 4 steals last night and while the Nets do not have an inside presence that I want – Brown could give us some upside against a Pacers team giving up the most second-chance points in the NBA since the Oladipo trade. Brown actually ranks second on the team in offensive rebounds per game behind DeAndre Jordan so there is some sneaky potential for upside with Brown based on the Pacers struggled on the defensive glass.
This Brooklyn game stack was good to me last night and frankly, everything from a metrics standpoint says to go back to it. We have a game projected at the second-fastest pace on the slate with two teams ranked in the bottom 10 defensively since that Oladipo trade 13 games ago.
Now add to the fact that the Pacers are priced far to cheap and we actually get the Nets players at a discount from last night – and why are we making this complicated?
A Brogdon/Sabonis/Turner with Harden/Harris/Brown mini stack will leave you with $7.2K for the last two spots in your build on DraftKings, making this a perfect high ceiling game stack with the balance to build around!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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Part 2 of the Collector’s Corner: NBA 2020-21 Preview takes a look at some of the NBA trading cards — past and present — you should be collecting.
We’re about a week into the 2020-21 NBA season, and it’s a good time to preview some of the possible breakouts – or just some big jumps from guys we already know about – in the trading cards market this year.
In this preview (Part 1 was a product review), we’ll look at some of players to target as they take the stage on the most marketable of courts in the NBA. I’ve included some links to eBay sales of the players I’m covering.
Tim Duncan – I heard there’s a debate raging online about whether Tim Duncan was a better player than Anthony Davis. While the book isn’t closed on AD, Duncan is in my Top 10 all-time NBA, and he might be Top 6 or 7, if we really want to get into the level of talent he faced and how competitive those Spurs teams were in the playoffs. Duncan’s trading cards are still undervalued. His Topps and Fleer rookies are way too cheap considering his significant NBA HOF legacy.
Shaquille O’Neal – Shaq rookies, plentiful because they were produced in the early-to-mid 1990s, are easy to find sharp and some are worth buying raw to get graded. It’s a long wait right now at PSA, but Shaq remains in the spotlight as a pop icon and entertaining NBA analyst. Grabbing his cards won’t set you back a ton and locating his more valuable inserts from that era could be especially lucrative. I’ve linked to the most recent sold prices, but do a search for those same cards currently and if you see a deal.
Kevin Durant – Durant won consecutive Finals MVPs before the devastating Achilles rupture in the 2019 NBA Finals, and he’s been off the radar for over a year. He’s got the length and sharpshooting ability to rebound well and he’s great buy right now as he tries to bring a title to Brooklyn.
Devin Booker/DeAndre Ayton – The addition of Chris Paul should improve the prospects of all the Suns players, from their veteran guards to third-year center Ayton. These are talented players who should see a bump in their production and trading card value.
More Veterans to Buy Low: Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Jrue Holiday, Joel Embiid, Kristaps Porzingis
These established players could have big years in 2020-21 and make their mark once again in the playoffs, when we can see huge jumps in prices after stellar performances.
Some Veterans to Sell: Jamal Murray, Anthony Davis, Aaron Gordon, Jimmy Butler, Hassan Whiteside
These guys see spikes in popularity after big games, but I’m not bullish on the long-term value of their cards – be it health, attitude, too much hype or just a limit on their popularity. Another get in, get out scenario where you can buy low and sell after a monster stat line or two.
If we look at investing in developing NBA prospects like cash game vs. GPP, it might help in building realistic expectations and projections. GPP-investments can be the players who aren’t highly touted (represent more risky, long-term investments) but can be bought cheaply. Cash game types include established (or simply heavily hyped) players like Ja Morant, Rui Hachimura and Kevin Porter Jr.
Jayson Tatum – It may seem weird to classify him as a “developing” player, but he apparently grew two more inches in the past summer – a little joke that got a bit out of hand once it hit the rumor mill. Seriously, though – Tatum may have grown a couple inches (from 6’8” to 6’10”) since he was first drafted in 2017, but the main thing that’s grown tremendously in that time is his game. He’s a more consistent shooter and much better defender, and his cards are still more affordable than some of the other superstars in the league.
Zion Williamson & Ja Morant – Zion still has some defensive issues handling true bigs in the post, but he’s an offensive superstar and there’s no telling the kind of stat lines he’ll post when his shot improves a bit. There’s not TONS of room for short term turnaround value, but like Amazon stock, he’s a grower. As for Ja – the ankle sprain appears to be a 3-5 week thing, so if you see his process drop in the coming weeks, pick up his stuff. You won’t regret it once he hits the floor again.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – The guy fills it up – a true talent with all the right tools to be a perennial All-Star, and he has solid work ethic and attitude. His rookie cards are still very affordable. His 2018 Silver Prizm rookie in a Gem Mint PSA 10 is selling for about $1,000 to $1,300, but you can buy the card raw for about $200-$300.
P.J. Washington – He’s seen increased playing time in the first three games of the new season, and he’s already got one double-double. His stuff is still pretty cheap and we could see a big jump soon.
Tyler Herro – He’s still a streaky performer who offers very little in the way of ancillary stats when the shots aren’t going down, but his cards are still selling well and he’s still “a bucket” – especially in crunch time. I doubt his trajectory will be one of steady growth – more a few jumps where you want to get in and get out – and do it all over again once it’s playoff time.
R.J. Barrett – Barrett is a talented offensive player who may have gone No. 1 in the 2020 draft, but his future is mired in New York with James Dolan’s Knicks for the time being. The good thing? Tom Thibodeau runs short rotations, so he’ll see plenty of court minutes to help fill up the scoring column this season.
Cameron Johnson – We’re just starting to se what he’s capable of at both ends of the floor. He’s a great shot and the addition of CP3 to this team can only help his chances at more exposure. A great long-term buy and still super cheap.
Kendrick Nunn – The Herro hype kind of killed some of the chatter about how good Nunn really is, but I think this guy might even be better than Nunn, especially when you consider how inexpensive his cards are right now. He’s still mired on the bench and seeing only 8-12 minutes in the full-strength Heat rotation, but injuries happen and so can hot streaks for young players who can score as well as Nunn.
More 2019-20 rookie cards to buy: Darius Bazley, Keldon johnson
Buy and stash: Talen Horton-Tucker, Dylan Windler
Anthony Edwards – There will be some inconsistent nights and stat lines but he’s in a decent spot for rookie production and he’s carrying the No. 1 pick status for another 11 months.
James Wiseman – He’s going to be a frustrating player to own in DFS because he’s committing too many dumb fouls, but the upside is there and so is the playing time if he can stay on the floor.
Cole Anthony – Talent evaluators I trust really like him, and there’s a clear path to playing time for a PG with scoring upside. He’s already making the most of his minutes on the floor.
Ghost and Michael discuss NBA 2020 Offseason Preview! The trades that have already happened and ones we would love to see go down. Why does everyone hate LeBron? Where do Russ and Harden end up? We also check out the NBA Draft and discuss the top 3 picks included what does Golden State do with their #2 overall pick!
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In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 3/5 difference-making playsin GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit 8x-10x.
These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!
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Murray doesn’t have the best matchup on paper, but he’s got50-point upside at a price point where he’s affordable, so I’ll be building abunch of lineups with him as my PG. You can pivot to Shake Milton if you’refading the DEN-CHA game, and if you’re going to stack the LAC-HOU game, you canpunt PG with Patrick Beverley, who’s been struggling lately with theaftereffects of a groin injury that forced him to miss a handful of games inFebruary. They’ll need him against the elitebackcourt of the Rockets on Thursday night. There’s plenty of question markssurrounding the PG position today, but Murray has a decent floor and Beverley shouldsee about 20-25 minutes (or more) tonight, and he’s dirt cheap on DK.
Harden ismatchup-proof and offers the highest ceiling of any player in the slate, so I’mlocking him in tonight. It’s been a while since he’s had an elite scoring nightand this is the highest game total of the night, so I can’t find a reason to fadehim. Lou Williams (PG/SG/G/UTIL) makes for a fine stacking option and could beforced into bigger minutes than his usual 25 or so.
I’ll have some shares of Paul George and Tobias Harris as well, but Kawhi should play four quarters tonight and log heavy minutes in this Western Conference battle. He’ll probably draw Robert Covington’s defense, but he really doesn’t need to score 30+ to post an elite fantasy total, as he’ll pick up plenty of rebounds/steals/assists and both teams can play small until the cows come home. The Raptors have a slew of injuries, but Norman Powell makes for a viable punt if he’s in the starting five and getting 35-40 minutes against a hapless Warriors squad.
Scott has 8x to 10x upside whenhe sees 30+ minutes, so if he’s starting tonight against the Kings he’s worthdeploying as a high-ceiling punt. The Philly frontcourt is beyond depleted andwe’ve seen the big guy come up big in the past when given the opportunity. Oneof the Philly bigs (be it Al Horford or SF/PF Glenn Robinson) is going to havea huge game tonight, and Scott carries a lower risk than normal if he’s astarter. Daniel House is never any fun to play in DFS, but he’s a pivot option atthis price point.
He might be tough to fit with some of the other studs in this list, but if you’ve got room, Jokic is the only center offering a 60-point upside. Even if he plays just 25-30 minutes, he’s got a 50-point upside in this matchup. In GPPs, there’s a path or rostering Harden, Kawhi, and Jokic if you can find a few darlings in the $3-4K range, and there’s plenty of candidates. If you’d rather not spend up and you’ve got the stones, you can play P.J. Washington in a tough matchup.
In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/29 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.
These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!
Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!
Harden reignited his rivalry with Giannis Antetokounmpo in a sit-down interview with Rachel Nichols and will be looking to back up his claims tonight in a highly anticipated Leap Year Special with the Celtics. The Bearded One is essentially matchup-proof and dropped 42 real-life points (and 67 DK points) against Boston on Feb. 11. It’s weird to say he could be overlooked, but there is a bunch of interesting SG plays today and we can sneak Harden in at PG – where he’s priced a little bit higher than Trae Young and has more consistent upside. I’ll probably build about half of my GPP lineups around Harden in anticipation of lower ownership than usual and very little chance of a blowout. Trae is a fine pivot against the Blazers, but my HOU-BOS game stacks won’t be using any of the PG-eligible Celtic guards.
I really don’t care that McCollum is $9,200, because he should be over $10K, especially in a matchup with the Hawks that could see another monster game total. McCollum’s usage with the current Portland starters is a whopping 34% and he’s scored 50 or more DK points in there of his last four – the one outlier being a 43.25 DK outing against the defensively-minded Pacers. As chief playmaker for this Portland team (which is fighting with a slew of other squads in the Western Conference to snag the last playoff spot), he’s going to have to bring it every night until Damian Lillard returns. I’m fading the likely popular DeMar DeRozan at $7,600 in a low-total game against the Magic that’s guaranteed to fall well short of last night’s madness from a pace perspective, but I don’t mind taking a crack at Bryn Forbes ($3,200) when he’s easily got 8x to 10x upside as one of the Spurs primary three-point shooters and getting about 20-25 minutes. The best non-punt value pivot is probably Jaylen Brown – who was nursing ankle injuries the last time Boston faced the Rockets and is expensive enough at $6,900 to ward off high ownership. Smart is cheaper but doesn’t have the same offensive upside.
With Kelly Oubre out for the year, Bridges (SG/SF/G/F/UTIL) has been seeing more minutes and draws a great matchup tonight against the Warriors – who struggle to defend 3&D wings like Mikal. Cam Johnson sustained an “upper-body” injury after a fall in last night’s contest that eaves him questionable for tonight’s matchup, so we could see Bridges play a bit more with the second unit as well. He’s a solid GPP option on a night where he might go overlooked and makes for a good bargain wing to include in your lineups. DraftKings lists very few SF-only players and I doubt Bridges will see much ownership with so many stud SGs (like Jimmy Butler and DeMar DeRozan) and PFs (Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward) eligible at SF. Bridges may not have a 50-point upside like those guys, but he’s got around a 45-point ceiling and his floor comes up with the new injury to Johnson. Cam Reddish has a great motor and has been playing well, so he’s a fine pivot for a few bucks less. If Andrew Wiggins actually plays tonight, he’d make a fine stacking option – though I’m a little worried about the game blowing out.
Carmelo is another important part of Blazers-Hawks game stacks and should be a lot busier offensively than he was at Indiana two nights ago. He’s 9-for-21 from three-point range over his last four games, including the 0-for-0 in Thursday’s loss. Melo’s in a good spot against a team that gives up big fantasy points to versatile forwards, but I’ll be pivoting down a bit for some more value in quite a few builds to Kyle Kuzma at just $4,600. Kuzma has 8x to 10x upside in a possibly LeBron-less game against Memphis where he could see 30 minutes. Game stackers should consider De’Andre Hunter, who will be playing a lot of 4 against Melo. Anthony Davis is going to drawn higher ownership, but I have some concerns, so I’m fading him. At his price, I like other guys better and if he beats me, he beats me.
If we played a lot of the high-value options at guard and forward, we need to find some value at C, and I’m looking no further than Chriss, who was a dud against the dominant frontcourt the Lakers threw at him. The former “Marquese de Phoenix” (I just made that up) might put up a show against the weak defense played by the Suns’ bigs, so I’m embracing the inherent risk of him not getting more than 30 minutes and focusing on his 8x upside in just 25-30 minutes. He’s a great option in Suns-Warriors stacks along with Wiggins, and the best pivot in his price range is probably Myles Turner. One punt option that stands out is ATL power big Bruno Fernando, who’s just $3,500 on DK and has been playing minutes in the 20s now. He’s got 10x upside against a team that ranks low in defensive efficiency against big men. But I have no qualms about making Bam Adebayo your center. I’m done fading that guy and will be using him in lineups where I haven’t blown my salary on guards.
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