Houston Rockets

Happy Monday my NBA DFS friends – we have an interesting week ahead of us where the NBA alternates days with massive schedules like tonight (9 games) and then gives us much more manageable slates of 5 games on Tuesday/Thursday. As we have talked about before, the larger the slate the wider the range of outcomes so be careful spreading yourself too thin on these larger slates and don’t be afraid to take stands to limit your player pool.

Let’s not bury the lede here – the slate begins and ends with the status of its two highest priced plays – James Harden and Luka Doncic who both come in with questionable tags as they are set to face each other on a national TV game this evening.

My guts says that both play because of the “exposure” and frankly, I hope they do play because if they sit – the value Rockets/Mavericks will be the chalk du jour on both DFS sites.

The other key on this slate besides injury news is going to be accounting for potential blowouts and while this is not something I typically set out to do, eliminating games on a 9 game slate is important and there are a few games that have the potential to limit court time for the stars including the Bucks against the Pistons, Sixers against Hornets and Heat against OKC.

Taking a Stand in our Builds!

Now let’s go into today with the assumption that both Luka and Harden play, in an effort to tackle that angle.

As I mentioned if they are out – the chalk builds will be to jam in under-priced plays like John Wall, Christian Wood, Eric Gordon and run it back with Sunday’s same value cast of characters from Dallas (Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Richardson, Trey Burke and Jalen Brunson.)

Don’t believe that it would be popular? Its just simply that easy.

So again, let’s hope for the sake of GPP’s that this does NOT happen and we are able to dive deeper than simply taking the obvious path that is plowed in front of us.

I mention this all the time but we need to take a stand in our builds on slates this large and with a handful of games with the potential to be one-sided, game stacking can be a great way to take down GPP’s if we are selective.

The game that really stands out to me tonight is the Hawks/Knicks as it checks a few of the boxes we need to build around.

• 221 total (one of the higher on the available totals) with a 5 point spread.
• We have some high ceiling star power and condensed rotations as a result of injuries to fringe/secondary players.

If we look first at the Hawks, the fact Atlanta is without Danillo Gallinari and now Kevin Huerter is questionable means the Hawks rotation becomes far easier to predict.

Any Hawks build has to start with Trae Young ($9.8K) who is priced in no man’s land between Luka and last night’s hero Steph Curry. To say this is a match-up that Young has had success in would be a slight understatement as Trae dropped 61, 62 and 73 DK points in three games against the Knicks last season and with the Knicks being one of the worst teams defensively against PG’s again this season – this could be a spot for Trae to drop a ceiling game at low ownership due to the pricing of the options around him.

Clint Capela ($6.1K) has played back-to-back games of 30+ minutes, dropping 36 and 46 DK points, and even with the price bump over $6K, his “floor” game the last two outings still returns 6x value on a flat out mispricing.

The rest of the Hawks rotation is more fill-ins for a game stack and while I think they are all viable, using guys like Cam Reddish, DeAndre Hunter and/or Bogdan Bogdanovic likely means guys like Trae Young are not having ceiling games so I would be hesitant on a slate this big to use them alongside Trae because any shot attempts they take, are ones that our pay up in Trae Young is not taking.

On the Knicks side, this team remains short-handed and it has led to some seriously condensed rotations and usage. Julius Randle ($9K) is the pay up piece from this game, the one ceiling player with triple/double ability and demonstrated 60 DK point upside. You are paying a premium for Randle but he is the ideal run back in a Trae Young/Capela core.

The other piece I would add here is Elfrid Payton ($6K) who is playing 30 minutes a night for an undermanned Knicks squad and has 33 DK points or more in 3 of his last 4 games.

This 2 v 2 core leaves you with just under $5K per player for the rest of your build which is more than viable on DraftKings and gives you a nice mini-game stack.

Time to Pivot!

If Luka/Harden sit, we covered where I think the chalk goes and the more I look at this slate the more I think Knicks/Hawks could end up being super chalky and any time you can play chalk New York Knicks, well you just have to do it!

So on this slate, pivoting and finding the move OFF the ownership is going to be critical and I think with no real “obvious” spots we need to build around – playing the ownership game could be ideal.

The one game that I doubt gains much traction but could be an ideal GPP game stack spot is Magic/Cavaliers – a game with the 4th highest projected pace and price points that really give multiple avenues to proft.

The Cavaliers side is going to be a bit news dependent as we already know Kevin Love and Kevin Porter Jr. are OUT and Isaac Okoro and Darius Garland are questionable.

If this foursome is all out – ALL the usage, literally ALL OF it – falls to two guys – Andre Drummond and Collin Sexton. You are talking about two players who would have 30% plus usage in a massive pace up spot against a Magic team playing at the 6th fastest pace in the NBA this season and oh by the way – NARRATIVE ALERT – it is Sexton’s birthday!

On the Magic side of this game, the biggest injury news is Evan Fournier who is questionable with a back injury and has been unable to practice – leading me to believe much of what we saw last game will remain in tact.

If you look back at the Magic’s last game, what you see is essentially a 6 man rotation with all the minutes and usage – like literally, all of it. The starting 5 of Vuc, AG, Fultz, Bacon and MCW along with 6th man Terrence Ross – shot the ball 95 times. Guys – NINETY FIVE!!!!

In total the Magic had only 108 FGA attempts so literally this core played all the minutes and accounted for 90% of the shot attempts.

So we get a team that plays at a top pace with an extremely condensed usage and oh by the way – NONE of the player on this team are over $9K. Not one!

In fact, only two players – Nikola Vucevic and Markelle Fultz are even over $6K on DK.

I love this game stack as the pricing is extremely balanced and you can essentially get all the usage with Drummond/Sexton and mix and match the corresponding Magic pieces.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This slate is really going to be one where the news and ownership drives my decision making as there does not appear to be any “chalk” that I feel I need to have and there are viable GPP pivots that may get overlooked.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!