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Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

After a long few days of having to worry about weather and delays/ppd’s, the weather is beautiful for our 6-game slate of MLB DFS.  At first glance, this slate is a tough one.  There are no true aces and few pitchers that are actually in good spots. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Drew Smyly vs. Washington Nationals

This is how bad pitching is today as I’m recommending Drew Smyly first.  Smyly has pitched pretty respectably this year as he’s sporting an ERA of 3.21 and really hasn’t had a single start since his first start where he’s been blown up.  The biggest concern here will be strikeouts.  The Nationals don’t really strike out much vs. lefties.  The projected lineup today has just a 17% k rate vs. lefties. 

Smyly for his part isn’t a strikeout pitcher.  He has just a 25% k rate on the year.  I do think though that he pitches well enough to get into the teens tonight in terms of DK points and with how bad pitching is, that may be enough to get into the money. 

Blake Snell vs. Cincinnati Reds

This is another tough one.  Snell has all the talent in the world. He has shown to be dominant at times.  There’s one thing though that he’s struggled with his entire career and that’s his control.  He has a whopping 8.2 BB/9 this year.  Until he can get that under control, it will be tough to consider him a top-tier pitching in the league. 

That said, he gets a solid matchup today vs. the Reds.  As a whole, the Reds have very pedestrian numbers vs. lefties this season, including a nearly 25% k rate.  If Snell can cut down on his walks today, he has the chance to be one of the top pitchers on the slate. 

Other pitchers I may have interest in are going to be Cal Quantrill vs. the Yankees if Judge is out again and Jose Berrios vs. Boston.  Just know Berrios is never trustworthy. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Corey Kluber

The Toronto Blue Jays offense exploded for 10 runs yesterday after getting nearly no-hit by a spot starter making his major league debut.  They have been one of the most inconsistent offenses all year and because of that, their ownership has been somewhat suppressed this season.  This is a great spot for their offense to continue with the moment they built yesterday.  

Corey Kluber is no longer an ace but a back-end-of-the-rotation guy at best.  He matches up extremely poorly with the Blue Jays.  He’s a flyball pitcher facing a team that has a bunch of guys that have flyball rates over 40%.  A home run derby is not out of the question tonight.

I’m starting out my Blue Jays stack with Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette, and George Springer.  Matt Chapman has been a beast this season.  His average is up to .380 on the season and has already driven up 21 RBI.  He also has a wOBA of .486.  He’s been locked in all season and has shown. 

After Chapman, I’ll lock in Bo Bichette.  Bichette had a pair of homers this week and combined for 11 runs + rbi.  Other bats I’ll look to here will be Vlad Guerrero, Danny Jensen, and Cavan Biggio,

San Diego Padres vs. Luke Weaver

A case could be made to start Luke Weaver tonight.  He’s one of the few pitchers tonight that has any strikeout upside.  That said, he’s also giving up a boatload of runs.  Through 11 innings of work, his ERA is up to 7.71.  He’s given up 10 ER so far this season and 5 homers.  He’ll have his hands full tonight as he gets to take on a fully healthy Padres lineup.  I don’t care much about splits here.  Both sides have been crushing him this season.

I’m going to build around Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado tonight.  Both guys have really been coming around.  Tatis is only about a week into the season after finishing up his suspension for PEDs. Over his last 23 AB, Tatis has 8 hits and has an OPS pushing 1.000.  As he gets his timing back, he’s only going to get better.  He’s expensive, but he’s in line for a solid night. 

Machado has also been playing, but who wouldn’t after playing in Mexico for a couple of games?  That park makes Coors look huge.  He’s seeing the ball right now so we’ll want him in our lineups.  Other guys I like here are Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, Trent Grishman, and anyone else that cracks the lineup.

Houston Astros vs. Ross Stripling

I’ve never been a huge fan of Ross Stripling.  He’s someone that gives up a lot of hard contact and a decent amount of flyballs.  Often, those flyballs tend to go over the fence.  I’ll be chasing that tonight.  Through 15 innings of work this season, he’s already given up 6 homers.  That’s not something that’s unfamiliar to him.  They were down for him last season, but in the 2 years prior to that he gave up more than 2 HR/9. 

When I play the Astros, I make it a point to play Yordan Alvarez.  He’s a top 5 bat in the league IMO.  Alvarez has quietly had a solid start to the year.  While he only has 6 homers, he’s up to 27 RBI.  With Altuve out, this lineup is built around him. 

I’m also going to add in Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena.  Pena is probably their hottest hitter right now.  Over his last 24 AB, Pena has 8 hits and 3 homers.  He’s hot at the plate and a priority for me.  I’ll round out this stack with guys like Mauricio Dubon and Kyle Tucker. 

MLB DFS Summary

This is a tough slate, there’s not sugar coating it.  I plan on playing light tonight because there are field mines everywhere just waiting to explode. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Washington for Chris Bassitt’s first start for his new team — the New York Mets! But there’s no enough rain in the area to fade him or any of the Mets’ bats considering a delay would only be likely much later in the game.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Justin Verlander ($10,400)

There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, and Verlander certainly has some of that coming off TJ surgery. But even with that as a factor, the veteran has the best chance to go deeper into this game than the other arms and has the best projection from a strikeouts/IP standpoint on FanDuel. There’s enough of a gap between him and the rest of the arms to consider him the best play in both cash games and GPPs. I firmly believe that a lot of the concerns folks have about Verlander boil down to typical DFS smokescreens they’ve gleaned from some of his comments, and not actual data. The next guy might end up making sense for large-field GPPs, but Verlander always finds a way to get it done, carried a super low 3.03 and 3.18 xFIP in his last two complete seasons (2018 and 2019), and the Angels have plenty of swing-and-miss potential (and not that much pop) one we get past Ohtani and Trout.

Best GPP Option: Joe Musgrove ($10,000)

I may disagree with WinDaily’s Adam Strangis in his assessment of Verlander in his must-read MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/9 article, but I really like his support of Musgrove, who should see lower ownership as DFS participants search for value or the safety of a name like Verlander. The D-Backs are off to s slow start offensively and Musgrove could turn in a 40-point performance if he can navigate through the left-handed bats in Arizona. I can’t say I’m not concerned about the high HR/FB rates over his career, but Musgrove is a better first half pitcher with a full tank of gas — we just need it to not catch fire.

Contrarian GPP Play: Chris Bassitt ($9,700)

Bassitt finds himself out of Oakland and pitching for a new team on the road in the nation’s capital, but there’s plenty to like from a game theory perspective about using him tonight. Both SPs in this game offer GPP upside, but more could flock to Joan Adon on both sites given his punt price. Bassitt posted a respectable if somewhat inflated 3.93 xFIP last season compared to the 3.15 ERA, but he’s great at missing bats (0.86 WHIP and 9.10 K/9). Adam’s article points out that Bassitt “kept both sides of the plate under a .285 wOBA” — a stat which really stood out. You may need to use Adon in a few if you’re stacking Coors tonight, but if you want to piece together a couple of contrarian stacks and go for the big win in large-field GPPs, Bassitt could be the right path.

More GPP Value: Joan Adon, Kyle Wright

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, and the Dodgers are more than a full run ahead of the Rockies in their projected total. That means nabbing Mookie Betts ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,300) and Trea Turner ($4,500), but it would be a slap in the face if I didn’t mention Will Smith ($3,900 — see what I did there?) or Max Muncy at $3,800. It’s also a good idea to do a few wraparound stacks that include 9-hitter Gavin Lux at an affordable $2,900. They won’t be easy to fit,

The Second-best Stack: Atlanta Braves

If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers or messing around with a popular Coors Field game, you can pivot to the World Champion Atlanta Braves and their impressive projected total (>5.5) against a very hittable Vladimir Gutierrez of the Cincinnati Reds. After the obvious core (1-4) stack of Eddie Rosario ($3,000), Matt Olson ($3,800), Austin Riley ($3,900), and Ozzie Albies ($4,100), we’ve got a couple of possible value plays in Adam Duvall and Alex Dickerson. Duvall has been known to double-dong his way to GPP-winning glory, and Dickerson, if he’s the DH in the lineup, has much less upside but is very cheap for a positive-splits option in a potent lineup. I may deploy a wait-and-see approach to Marcell Ozuna until I see him getting comfortable at the plate again, but he’s also cheap at $3,000.

Value GPP Stack: San Diego Padres

Lost in the slate and the disappointment over the absence of Fernando Tatis, Jr. is a Padres lineup that still has plenty of potential and some powerful bats. I’m prioritizing Manny Machado ($3,800), Jake Cronenworth ($3,300), Trent Grisham ($3,100) and newcomer Luke Voit ($2,700), but there’s even more value in guys like Wil Myers ($2,600) and Eric Hosmer ($2,400). I love that the NL has adopted the DH because we can more easily take advantage of value stacks like the Padres with that extra big bat, and opposing pitcher Zach Davies doesn’t scare me one bit.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases.  Thanks to yesterday’s rainout we have a 3 game slate of MLB playoff baseball today. 

My goal today will be to walk you through where my mind is with pitching and then focus on some bats that are a must. 

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: Pitching            

Pitching today is very different than yesterday.  Yesterday we had the likes of Max Scherzer and Freddy Peralta while today has the likes of Tony Gonsolin and Eric Lauer.  They are solid pitchers, but nothing like their counterparts from yesterday.

My top pitcher today is Lance McCullers.  McCullers tends to strike out batters from the right side at a little bit of a higher clip.  In 2021 he struck out righties at a 28.4% clip vs. 26.2% for lefties.  McCullers also throws his slider heavily to righties, more than 44% of the time. 

The core to the White Sox lineup is right handed and all have high whiff rates to the pitch.  if he can neutralize guys like Anderson, Robert, and Abreu to start things off it could put the Astros in a position to clinch the Division Series today and the Astros vs. Red Sox in the ALCS.

Another pitcher I’m interested in is Anthony DeSclafani.  DeSclafani is well rested as he hasn’t pitched since 10/01.  We shouldn’t expect a high strike out total from DeSclafani today, but we should expect a solid outing.  DeSclafani has scored at least 24 DK points in 3 of his last 4 outings vs. the Dodgers.  He faced them most recently on 9/3 and struck out 5 in 6 innings while only allowing 2 hits. 

DeSclafani should face a lineup that has 6 righties in it today, including the pitcher.  On the year he held righties to just a .109 ISO and 33% hard hit rate.  This is a solid match up for him today and while I like McCullers a bit better, DeSclafani should be able to hold his own today.

A case could also be made to throw out Huascar Ynoa.  The Brewers bats have gone completely cold.  They have been shutout in back to back games and have only mustered 11 hits in those 2 games.  They’re in desperation mode and face off against a pitcher that was pretty solid this year. 

Ynoa relies heavily on his slider.  He threw it more than 45% of the time to both sides of the plate.  If we look at the projected lineup for the Brewers today, only Urias and Tellez had whiff rates lower than 30% to sliders.  I’m ok going into a match up having those guys as the guys that may have a decent shot at production.  If Ynoa’s slider is on point today the Braves will be moving on to the NLCS. 

Charlie Morton has been named today’s starter on short rest. Even though he may be on an abbreviated pitch count he’s very much in play. He dominated them through 6 innings on Friday and only gave up a 2 run homer to Tellez.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Atlanta Braves vs. Eric Lauer – Lauer has some pretty clear splits and those splits will not be to his advantage today.  He gives up way more hard contact and fly balls to righties.  Righties had a 46.5% hard hit rate vs. him this year and a 42% fly ball rate.  Eight of the nine Braves today will be batting from the right side of the plate.  And the lone lefty is Freddy Freeman who is typically pretty good against southpaws. 

My core today from the Braves will be Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson.   Both guys line up extremely well with Lauer and his cutter.  Riley has a .294 ISO against cutters while Swanson has a .333 ISO against them.  Both of these guys helped the Braves get to this point and they’ll help them advance to the NLCS today.  Other guys I’m interested in here are Ozzie Albies and Jorge Soler.

Houston Astros vs. Carlos Rodon – Rodon is a great pitcher.  No one on the slate has the strike out upside that he has as he’s the only pitcher throwing today that had a 30% K rate or greater in 2021.  That said, the Astros are in control of the series and should be able to send the White Sox packing today.  If we want to get a take down today we really need to differentiate our lineup. 

The field should gravitate to guys like AltuveCorrea, and Bregman and if you want to play the chalk that’s where you’d want to be.  If playing the Astros today I’d want to make sure I have the likes of Meyers and Maldonado in my lineups.  Although it was a smaller sample size, Meyers had a .294 ISO vs. lefties this year.

San Francisco Giants vs. Tony Gonsolin – If you look at just ISO and wOBA Gonsolin looks like he does better vs. lefties than he does righties.  I think it was mostly luck and I’m going to hammer him with lefties today.  If we look at some of his metrics he should be getting tagged by lefties.  His fly ball rate is higher, his hard rate is higher, his K rate is lower, and his exit velocity is higher.  All signs point to lefties getting the better of him. 

The heart and soul of the Giants is Brandon Crawford.  If using the Giants today, he’s a must for me.  He had a .230 ISO vs. righties this year and a near .400 wOBA.  I’d also make sure to prioritize guys like WadeYastrzemski, and Bryant. All three had ISO’s over .200 against righties this year.  Gonsolin Is very beatable and the Giants should clinch their spot in the NLCS vs. him today. 

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Oh what a fun day today is going to be for the baseball fan.  All 3 games could be the last for teams.  As I look at this slate and the arms vs. the bats, we should see the teams up 2-1 in their series clinch their spots in their respective league championships.  

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have our first 4 game slate of the 2021 MBL Division Series.  All 8 playoff teams are in action

My goal today will be to walk you through where my mind is with pitching and then focus on some bats that are a must. 

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

My pitching pool today will consist of 3 pitchers.  Corbin Burnes ($10.4 FD/$9.1k DK), Walker Buehler ($9.9k FD/$8.5k DK), and Shane Baz ($7.8k FD/$6.3k DK).  Let’s start with Burnes.  I’m going to ignore his final start of the year because it was a meaningless 2 inning start. 

I want to focus on the three starts before that.  He K’d 14 Indians, 11 Cubs, and then 9 Mets.  That’s 34 K’s in just 21 innings.  No one on this slate has the strike out upside as Burnes has.  Burnes is going to face a predominantly right handed lineup today.  He has a 37% K rate vs. them in 2021 and gave up just a .061 ISO.   No pitcher is safe today, but Burnes is the safest of the bunch.

Next up on my wish list is Buehler.  He comes into today’s game after pitching arguably his best game of the year on Sunday.  In that game he struck 11 in just 5 innings and gave up just 3 hits to the Brewers.  He’s pitching on regular rest so there’s little risk to him being rusty. 

Giants should throw out 5 lefties in their lineup today.  For us, that’s not a bad thing.  While he has a slightly lower K rate against lefties, he also gives up less fly balls and less hard contact.  Look for Buehler to have a dominant game against a Giants team that hasn’t played since Sunday.  

The final guy I’m looking at is Shane Baz.  This kid has a dynamic arm.  I suspect he’s going to be more popular today on DK because of how cheap he is.  While he has only 3 Major League games under his sleeve, all 3 showed some dominance.  He had a near 37% K rate in those 3 games and had a greater than 16% swinging strike rate.  The biggest risk with Baz is a quick hook.  IF he gets into trouble early, Kevin Cash could go to his bullpen pretty quickly. 

I’m off Sale today.  He’s coming into the playoffs not in good form. Over his last 12 innings he’s given up 6 walks and 7 runs.  He’s not sharp and gets a tough match up vs. the Rays.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Chicago White Sox vs. Framber Valdez – Of all the pitchers on the hill today, Valdez has the highest xFIP and has given up the most hard contact.  His hard rate over the past 30 days is nearly 41%.  And he gets an absolutely awful match up.  The White Sox were one of the best teams in baseball this season vs. lefties. 

Valdez is going to throw a ton of sinkers today.  He throws it more than 60% of the time to both sides of the plate.  Guys like Tim AndersonLuis Robert, and Yasmani Grandal have historically crushed sinkers coming from lefties.  All have ISO’s over .250 over the last few years vs. the pitch.  They would be my core to any White Sox stack.  If you need some value, a guy like Andrew Vaughn is very affordable on both sites today.  

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chris Sale – I said it up top that Sale is not in good form.  He’s beatable and he’s going to get beat by the Rays today.  It’s all going to start with Randy Arozarena.  The guy was built for October.  He dominated the playoffs last year and he started out on fire last night.  Who steals home in the playoffs? 

My TB stack will start with him and then include guys like Nelson CruzYandy Diaz, and Mike Zunino.  All 3 of them come into the game today with solid numbers vs. lefties on the year and especially over the last month.  Sale and his slider are going to be no match for the Rays today. Margot and Luplow are great values but are also pinch hit risks later in the game.   

Houston Astros vs. Lucas Giolito – Gio is a solid pitcher but he’s facing a team that’s hitting the ball extremely well right now.  Over their last 4 games they haven’t scored less than 6 runs.  That includes yesterday vs. Lance Lynn.  Any Astros stack has to start with Yordan Alvarez.  He has the most power of anyone on the Astros and has a .271 ISO vs. righties over the last month.  

Kyle Tucker is another guy I’d want to prioritize here.  Gio throws his change up a third of the time to lefties.  Tucker has a .289 ISO against righty change ups and a 45% hard hit rate.  Brantley is also someone else to put in your lineup as he’s batting second and is very affordable today on both sites. 

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

All pitchers today have some level of risk.  Most teams have rested bullpens and pitchers this time of year have shorter hooks than normal.  That said, Burnes and Buehler are the aces I’d target and if you want to get cute Baz should be your guy.  

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The ugliest weather is in St. Louis, and there’s a good shot at a delay or postponement there. Some other trouble spots to be aware of as well, but the Cubs-Cards is the worst of it.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Lucas Giolito ($9,900)

Giolito has pretty balanced splits against both sides of the plate, which is a good thing when facing a Tigers lineup that’s full of switch-hitters. While there are some rain concerns in this game, most of the heavy stuff probably stays south of the ballpark, and there’s a good chance they just play through some lighter rain. It’s one of the early games, so we’ll have to check back on the radar before lock and hopefully get confirmation there’s no late start or delay — which could complicate things. But I love his upside on a slate where Corbin Burnes and Julio Urias both have tough matchups and could have an early hook. The White Sox righty, on the other hand, should go a little deeper into this game and has the highest projected FD total of the slate — and the most upside. Aside form his last start in Detroit on July 4, he’s handled the Tigers (who have the third-highest K rate in MLB) pretty well this season. Giolito is a fine play in all formats.

GPP Value Play: Chris Flexen ($9,100)

Flexen isn’t a dazzling SP option, but he’s usually god for 5-6 Ks and almost always pitches 5-7 innings — an important factor when we consider the stage of the season we’re at. The Angels are sporting the second-worst team wOBA in baseball over the past 14 days (.273) with a paltry .218/.302/.322 slash line in that span. Flexen’s upside is capped at around 50 FD points, but he’s got a great shot at hitting 35-40 points if you’re looking for some safety. As long as he stays away from throwing too many cutters (the Angels hit that pitch relatively well), he’ll have success with his fastball/curveball combo.

Contrarian GPP Play: Zac Gallen ($8,400)

Gallen hasn’t had the season many hoped for, as the righty showed lots of promise during his first two seasons in the big leagues. But he’s been a thorn in the side of the Rockies, pitching well in his last start in Coors (7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER and 9 Ks — good for 52 FD points on Aug. 21). Even when he got “rocked by the Rockies” earlier in a home start, he struck out seven batters. I love him as a cheap contrarian play who could have a ceiling game against a lineup that’s got nothing to strive for except their pride.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves

I’m assuming the Braves won’t sit everyone again tonight since the lineup core got a breather on Friday, but we’ll have to check back before lock to make sure they’re playing. Even with an early yank, these hitters have plenty of upside and could pile up some runs in the first few innings facing Mets SP Trevor Williams. The priority bats are Freddie Freeman ($3,900), Jorge Soler ($3,400), Adam Duvall ($3,300), Eddie Rosario ($3,000). Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies would be in play, but are expected to get the night off.

GPP Value Stack: Minnesota Twins

The Twins have a slew of excellent hitters in absolute SMASH spots tonight versus Royals SP Kris Bubic, and I’ll be starting my stacks with Jorge Polanco ($3,600), Byron Buxton ($4,100) and Josh Donaldson ($3,400). We can choose our fourth hitter from riskier but high-upside cheaper options like Mitch Garver ($3,100), Miguel Sano ($2,500) and Brent Rooker ($2,200). They’ll be my primary GPP stack and should produce a lot of fireworks tonight.

GPP Value/Contrarian Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks

We don’t write up the D-backs much in this space, but they matchup up well against Antonio Senzetela, who’s been okay this season but has struggled through his past few starts. I’ll have at least a couple GPP lineups Arizona stacks featuring an array of hitters form the 1-6 spots in their order, prioritizing Ketel Marte ($3,400), David Peralta ($2,300), Daulton Varsho ($2,300), Pavin Smith ($2,100) and Carson Kelly ($2,400), with a few shares of cheap (and near-minimum price) leadoff hitter Josh Rojas ($2,100).

More (Obvious) Cash/GPP Game Stack Options: Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians & Chicago White Sox

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No heavy rain in the forecast tonight, but there are a few light showers in the San Francisco area for Braves-Giants. Nothing that should keep us off the game.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,200)

Burnes is coming off an 8.0 IP, 14 K (and no-hit) masterpiece in Cleveland on Sept. 11 where he racked up 76 FD points. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that after a 15 K game against this Cubs team on Aug. 11, he only recorded 3 Ks in his next outing versus the Cards. But that’s nitpicking. He’s the best arm of the slate with the highest floor and ceiling, and it’s not particularly close. Unless he gets lit up, he’s probably looking at a 40-point floor and 70-point upside again.

Best GPP Value: Lance McCullers ($9,900)

I think we probably need to find a way to fit Burnes into most of our GPP builds tonight as well, but McCullers in a home matchup against the Diamondbacks does offer some opportunity for salary relief with about 75-80% of the upside that the Milwaukee hurler does. The biggest knock against him tonight is the fact that Lance isn’t great against lefties, and Arizona (a high strikeout team for sure) could roll out up to seven against McCullers in this game. Still — there are not any really cheap options on this slate that don’t involve massive risk, so I think the best bet is still using a top arm and finding value in the bats.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,300)

Lynn is the only other pitcher on the slate with 65-70 points upside, but it’s ben a while since we’ve seen that kind of dominance out of the right-hander. The appeal here is the tasty matchup facing the Rangers, a small cost savings from Burnes and lower projected ownership, but I’m not sure that sacrificing the upside and floor is worth rolling him out in any more than one or two GPP lineups out of 10. McCullers and Lynn project for similar outcomes tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

It’ll be damn near impossible to afford the top bats (Jose Altuve at $4,200, Alex Bregman at $4,300 and Yordan Alvarez at $4,000) from Houston tonight in lineups that lock in Burnes, but if we grab some value bats from the bottom of this potent lineup, we can get a piece of this high projected run total (5.7) and still get exposure. I’m looking primarily at righty killers Kyle Tucker ($3,900) and Yuri Gurriel ($3,300) with Jose Siri ($2,700) and Jake Meyers ($2,400). Chas McCormick ($2,400) is obviously also an option if one of the other OF sits.

GPP Value Stack: Los Angeles Angels

Attacking objectively bad sinkerballer Daulton Jeffries, who is starting for the A’s, is where we can find the necessary firepower to build a winning lineup. If we start out our FD builds with Burnes and sinker destroyer extraordinaire Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), we have $2,771 per remaining hitter left in salary. This leaves us with the value options in the aforementioned stack and guys like Brandon Marsh ($2,400), Darrin Fletcher ($2,600), Max Stassi ($2,400), Jared Walsh ($3,000) and Luis Rengifo ($2,300) — who hits sinkers particularly well, as Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 article.

GPP Stack #2: Oakland Athletics

If we’re grabbing some Angels, there’s no reason we can’t get some of the other side of this matchup as well, as the Athletics offer some excellent value options in their lineup facing lefty Jose Suarez. Those bargain bats include 2B/3B/UTIL eligible leadoff man Josh Harrison ($2,900), Chad Pinder ($2,200), Yan Gomes ($2,600) (or Sean Murphy at $2,100) and Khris Davis ($2,100). If there’s room for Mark Canha ($3,200), Starling Marte ($3,800) and Matt Olson ($4,200), that’s great — we could even mix and match and exclusively game stack OAK-LAA — avoiding the chalky Houston bats altogether in some of our GPPs.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No rain in the forecast but we do have winds blowing out in St. Louis for the Reds-Cards game — something to consider for Cincinnati GPP stacks.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($9,700)

We can chalk up his last outing (3 IP, 7 H, 1 K, 6 ER @SF) to a bad day, and his last start vs. the Padres yielded a solid outcome. The K rate is down a bit in 2021, but the walks are down, the ground ball rate has increased and the solid 2.31 ERA isn’t too far separated from the 3.18/3.59 FIP/xFIP combo. We’re looking at about a 35-40 point projections here, with a 50-point ceiling, and that’s good enough to make him the top SP for cash games and single-entry.

Best GPP Value: Charlie Morton ($9,000)

Morton looks like a solid value tonight against the Marlins, who have the second-highest team K% in MLB. The veteran’s upside probably even exceeds Buehler’s tonight given the matchup, and that upside comes with a built-in discount from the top two arms on the slate in Buehler and Luis Castillo. I’m not as interested in Castillo because of how he can get lit up, especially against a team filled with potent bats like the Cards, but he’d make for a semi-contrarian choice given that tougher matchup. Morton seems to fit the best and carry the highest chance of notching both a QS and W, so he’s my first choice for GPPs.

Contrarian GPP Play: Luis Garcia ($8,300)

Garcia isn’t a very exciting play, but if we need a leverage pivot with some upside, he’s probably it. His ownership should be lower than Morton’s, and he’s seen an uptick in velocity on his pitches lately. The problem is that he’s got a much lower floor than either Morton or Buehler, and while the price is severely discounted compared to DraftKings, he hasn’t notched double-digit Ks in any start this season despite a 10.41 K% because he rarely pitches six full innings.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

The implied run total is well over 5, and the Astros have been red-hot offensively over the past few games, so we should start any stack off with Alex Bregman ($3,200), and then play some combination of Jose Altuve ($3,800) and Yordan Alvarez ($3,400), Carlos Correa ($3,500), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) Yuri Gurriel ($2,900) and value options Michael Brantley ($2,600) and Martin Maldonado ($2,100). There’s really nobody that’s out of consideration given the circular nature of this powerful lineup.

GPP Stack #1: Chicago White Sox

The prices are still relatively affordable for the White Sox (even moreso on DK), with Luis Robert ($3,900), Jose Abreu ($3,800), Eloy Jimenez ($3,500) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,800) all in play for stacks against Red Sox projected starter Connor Seabold. Andrew Vaughn is just $2,300, and both Brian Goodwin ($2,200) and Yoan Moncada ($3,200) are in play as well. It’s simply a great spot for mixing and matching a few different four-man stacks of White Sox.

GPP Stack #2: Cincinnati Reds

Miles Mikolas doesn’t scare me one bit, and while the Reds are a dynamic bunch who can disappoint on occasion, I like the four-man stack of Jonathan India ($3,700), Nick Castellanos ($4,100), Joey Votto ($3,700) and Tyler Naquin ($2,700) the best among this bunch, with Eugenio Suarez ($3,200), Max Schrock ($2,100) and Tucker Barnhart ($2,400) the best of the rest.

Bonus Value Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Cincinnati for the Tigers-Reds game, which if it plays will have to be through heavy rain. If the forecasts changes we can consider the Reds hitters against LHP Matthew Boyd, but this game has a good shot at a PPD so it might just be too risky even for bats.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Framber Valdez ($9,800)

There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, but Valdez offers the best shot at a decent floor with GPP-winning upside. He’s likely where a lot of folks will be starting their cash game builds. If he can avoid the big blow from Fernando Tatis Jr. and navigate through the rest of this lefty-heavy lineup, I’m confident he’ll be sitting somewhere in that 29-46 point range where he’s lived comfortably in his last seven starts. Valdez sports a relatively pedestrian 22.4% K rate this season, but he’s posted at least 6 Ks in five of his last six starts and the Padres don’t necessarily destroy lefty pitching. This slate isn’t pretty for starting pitching, but Valdez is likely the best we’ve got.

Best GPP Value: Reynaldo Lopez ($8,100)

The White Sox starting rotation has taken some hits lately, with both Lane Lynn and Lucas Giolito on the shelf — at least temporarily. If Tony La Russa weren’t so old school, I’d be worried about Lopez going the requisite five innings he needs to pick up the win, but if “Pound-em-down” Tony says Lopez is starting, he’s probably willing to let him go 5-6 IP, which should be plenty long enough to make value against the Royals. Lopez had 42 FD points in his last start (against the Cubs) on August 27, striking out 7 in 5.0 IP and notching a win. We could see similar results tonight.

Contrarian GPP Play: Joe Musgrove ($8,800)

As WinDaily’s Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 article, Musgrove worked some magic against the Angels his last time on the bump, and gets another tough test facing the Astros — a team that just doesn’t strike out very much and mashes it around the yard (lowest K-rate in baseball, top three in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP). Musgrove is pitching this game in his team’s NL park, so that helps, and the most recent performance by the Astros against an ancient Jake Arrieta shows that at least they aren’t red-hot heading into the matchup. Both of the implied team totals in this game are under 4 runs, so it could really go either way. I’m assuming that Musgrove’s ownership will be much lower than that of Valdez. If Braves RHP Ian Anderson were looking anything like his 2020 self in his last few starts after returning from injury, I’d have some interest in suing him as a contrarian play in Coors, but that just doesn’t appear to be the wise move tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, so if you’re believer they’ll finally give us the shootout we’ve been promised tonight — have at it. But the past couple of nights have given us the highest totals outside of Coors, which is where we’ll be focusing our attention for tonight’s slate. That starts with Dodgers against LHP Sammy Long in San Francisco in a revenge game. This lineup just lost first place to the Giants last night and they absolutely destroy fastballs, and that’s primarily what Long throws. I’m starting my stacks with Trea Turner ($4,300), Mookie Betts ($4,100), A.J. Pollock ($3,200) and Justin Turner ($3,800), but lefties Max Muncy ($4,000 — if he doesn’t sit) and Corey Seager ($3,800) are in play as well.

The Second-best Stack: Chicago White Sox

If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers in a pitcher’s park, then consider rolling out the White Sox, who project well against young lefty Daniel Lynch. Lynch has been solid lately and has some contrarian upside in his own right tonight, but the smart money (4.95 projected team total for the Sox) is on Luis Robert ($4,200), Jose Abreu ($4,100), Eloy Jimenez ($3,600) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,500) pulvering baseballs and giving us a big offensive night. Andrew Vaughn and his .380 wOBA vs. LHP is the best value option at just $2,500, while Leury Garcia ($2,300) who sports positive splits against LHP (.320 wOBA) makes sense as well if you need the salary savings and need to drop one of the bigger bats.

Value GPP Stack: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels offense just hasn’t been great the last couple of weeks, sporting a relatively weak wRC+ of 78 and .128 ISO over the past 14 days. But that all changes tonight against LHP Kolby Allard. On the season, the splits against LHP are solid, with a team wOBA of .322, ISO of .180 and 105 wRC+, numbers that match well against Allard and his ERA and FIP — both north of 5.00. Plus, the wind is blowing out to right field in a hitter’s park, and the temperature is the highest of any game in the slate. We’re going to see some runs scored in Anaheim tonight, and I’m starting my stacks with Shohei Ohtani ($4,500), David Fletcher ($2,900), Jo Adell ($2,500) and Justin Upton ($2,700). Max Stassi ($2,900) is in play if he starts, and so is “Fabulous” Phil Gosselin ($2,300) if he’s high in the order.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Monday edition of Aces and Bases.  Tonight we have a small 6 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.  With a small slate comes a limited pool of options.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The “Aces”

I’ll start by saying pitching today is tough.  We have one pitcher priced above $10k in Lance Lynn and I just don’t think I can go there with him against the Blue Jays.  The next guy down is Alek Manoah and he too is facing a tough lineup in the White Sox. 

Will Crowe ($6.2k)  vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – This tells you all you need to know about pitching today.  Crowe hasn’t been awful over the past 30 days.  His xFIP is in the low 4 range and he’s actually been striking some batters out.  His K rate is 25% over that same period. 

Of the pitchers throwing today, only 2 have a higher K rate over the same period.  I’m going here today because the match up is soft.  Arizona just came out of the best hitting environment and outside of yesterday’s break out they weren’t able to muster much offense. 

The lineup today for Arizona should have 6 lefties in it.  Although Crowe does tend to give up more fly balls to lefties, he also strikes them out more.  Over the past 30 days he has a near 30% K rate vs. lefties.  With his salary, you can just about get any bat you want to day. 

Antonio Senzatela ($7.3k) vs. Chicago Cubs – I told you it was bad today.  The projected cubs lineup tonight has 25.5% K rate over the 30 days against righties with just a .134 ISO.  They’re striking out at a good rate and not putting up much power. 

The wind is projected to be blowing out of Wrigley tonight but I’m not as worried with Senzatela on the mound as he’s a ground ball pitcher.  With pitching so awful tonight I’m more looking for a decent floor.  Senzatela provides that has 7 consecutive starts with at least 20 FD points. 

Over the last month he has a 4.13 xFIP so he hasn’t been that bad at all. He’s not a high strike out guy at just 14% during that same period but a match up against the Cubs should see that number climb tonight.

Huascar Ynoa ($8.6k) vs. New York Yankees – I probably won’t get here tonight because of the match up vs. a hot Yankees lineup, but Ynoa provides some decent K upside tonight.  While Ynoa has missed some time this year, he has a 27% K rate on the year. 

The Yankees hit for a lot of power, but they also K a lot.  Over the past month they have a 27% K rate vs. righties.  If Ynoa can limit the damage tonight, he has some serious K upside.  He’s my high risk/high reward pitcher tonight.    

MLB DFS: The Bats

Houston Astros vs. Daniel Lynch – That box score of Lynch’s looked great last outing.  He had 5 strikeouts, gave up just 4 hits, and only 1 ER in 7 innings.  Sometimes, looks can be deceiving. 

He also gave up 9 hard “hits” that amounted to a 53% hard hit rate.  His BABIP on the game was a pretty low .235 and his LOB % was over 85%.  What looks good in the final line doesn’t always tell the whole story.  My hope is that the casual fan looks at just the box score and not what actually happened in the game. 

The Astros have a handful of guys that have been absolutely crushing lefties of late.  Alvarez ($4.1k)Gurriel ($3.1k), and Diaz ($2.7k) all have ISO’s north of .300 against lefties over the last 30 days and those 3 are going to be my priority.  I’m focused on these 3 because of a couple of factors.  Alvarez due to the L/L matchup and he will probably go under owned.  Gurriel and Diaz due to the Lynch not being as strong against righties.  His season long K rate drops from 29% against lefties to just 17% against righties. 

There’s regression coming for Lynch and the Astros will bring it out today.

Oakland Athletics vs. Marco Gonzales – Gonzales is another pitcher that has some regression coming his way.  Over the last 30 days he has an insanely low BABIP of just .213 and an LOB of 95%.  With having such a high contact % at 81% and low BABIP it’s only a matter of time before the balls start dropping. 

My focus with Athletics today will be with the righties.  Over the last 30 days Gonzales has been far batter against lefties.  His K rate vs. lefties is over 35% while against righties it’s just 16%.  Righties have a 50% fly ball rate vs. just 29% for lefties. 

The one guy that really stands out here is Matt Chapman ($3.6k).  Over the last month he has a .480 ISO against lefties with a .482 wOBA.  He’s my building block here.  Other guys I’m interested with in this lineup are Marte ($3.9k) and Harrison ($2.7k).  

Both guys have wOBA’s greater than .400 in the last 30 days vs. lefties.  If my hunch is correct and the A’s get to Gonzales we can also look to get Olson ($3.9k) at a depressed ownership.  He’s no slouch against lefties as he has a .351 ISO against them this year. 

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Humberto Mejia – It’s looking like Mejia may get the start for the Diamondbacks tonight.  If he does, I’ll look to grab some Pirates bats.  Mejia pitched briefly in the majors with the Marlins last year and it was not pretty. 

In just 3 starts he managed a 5.40 ERA and a 6.18 xFIP.  He gave up ISO’s of at least .250 to both sides of the plate in his limited sample.  My stack here is going to start with Tsutsugo ($2.4k) who has made the most of his time so far with the Pirates.  He has hits in 4 of his first 6 games with them and 2 of the hits have left the park.  While it’s only 6 PA, he has an .833 ISO against righties. 

The other piece I’ll definitely look to lock in from the Pirates will be Brian Reynolds ($3.2k).  Reynolds has been on fire of late as he has a .339 ISO against righties in the last 30 days.  He should have no issue against the fastball/change up mix he’ll see from Mejia tonight. 

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching tonight is back to a dumpster fire.  The top tiered guys are in awful spots so I plan on living in the mid to low range with the hope they can limit enough damage that my bats will carry me to the top. 

Houston and Oakland will be my core but I’ll be sure to add in a couple of Pirates along the way as Mejia is not good. 

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Possibility for a stray shower that could cause a late start or brief delay at Citi Field for Dodgers-Mets, but other than that we don’t have to worry about much other than the usual weirdness in these trying times!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($11,500)

The price may prohibit us from getting all the bats we want, but there’s no denying that Buehler offers the safest option for cash games as long s the weather looks like it will hold prior to lock. The Mets are just about middle-of-the-road in K rate in MLB (23.6%), and Buehler’s pitch repertoire all but guarantees they’ll have trouble barreling him up tonight. From a MLB DFS perspective, there’s plenty of reason to steer away on GPPs and single-entry builds where we’d like to get some big bats, but there may be some sneaky stack value that could help us combine Buehler’s high floor with the hitting points necessary to nail down a solid cash game lineup.

NOTE: If you’re willing to assume a little more risk and need the extra savings, Joe Musgrove ($9,600) is also a viable option against a somewhat feckless Arizona lineup.

Best GPP Value: Luis Garcia ($7,900)

Garcia is woefully mispriced on FD and we’re going to take advantage in GPPs. In his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 article, Adam Strangis points out that Garcia has a great spot for production here, and that’s a DK-oriented piece where he’s actually priced at $9,900, while Buehler is just $10,600. On FD, however, we only need one SP — and Garcia’s average of 31.7 PPG (with duel season highs of 52 points coming in his last start and two of his last four starts) is a huge plus. He’s clearly our best bang for the buck against an Angels lineup that has a few bright spots but has been among the worst in the league over the past 14 days (.214/.282/.314 team slash; .264 team wOBA and 66 wRC+). Single-entry, large-field GPP — maybe even cash games — I’ll be all over Garcia tonight in MLB DFS tonight.

Contrarian GPP Play: Dylan Cease ($8,900)

The Yankees offense is very scary, but they do strike out at a 24.3% rate this season and this game will not be played in a wind tunnel Field of Dreams where any hard hit fly ball ends up in the corn. Cease is projected for over 30 FD points and he could easily exceed the 40-point mark if he can avoid the walks and big blast (he’s made big strides in 2021, lowering his BB/9% to 3.69 from 5.25 in a tumultuous 2020). He should carry low ownership against the Bronx Bombers and pitching on his home field should help a bit, as he’s posted a .267 wOBA on the South Side of Chicago, compared to .301 in road games. This is a risky play but Cease does have upside in this matchup if he can keep the Yankees off base and limit the HR damage to solo blasts.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

Taijuan Walker hasn’t been too good since the end of June, yielding a whopping .464 wOBA since the All-Star break and an almost hilarious .333/.406/.711 slash line to opposing hitters. And now, folks, he gets to face the Los Angeles Dodgers! We can focus our attention on the lefties here. making a point to include Cody Bellinger ($3,600) — who’s really been heating up — along with Corey Seager ($3,200), Max Muncy ($3,700) and finish off our four-man stack with RHB A.J. Pollock ($3,100), who’s still relatively cheap. Trea Turner is also worth a look, but he’s expensive at $4,000, and if Albert Pujols ($2,200) starts he’ll be a bargain.

GPP Value Stack: San Francisco Giants

I profited quite a bit from having almost 100% of Austin Slater ($2,500) and Wilmer Flores ($3,000) last night in the late slate contests, and we want to take advantage of their soft prices and crazy splits against LHP again tonight, as they’ll be facing Rockies SP Kyle Freeland, a southpaw with a .364 wOBA (and nine HR allowed this season in 52.0 total IP) against right-handed batters. Throw in cleanup hitter Darin Ruf ($2,700) and (future HOFer?) Buster Posey ($3,300) and you’ve got a solid and inexpensive four-man stack, viable for cash or GPP. 3B/OF.UTIL eligible Kris Bryant is also worth a look and makes sense to mix in if you can afford him at $3,900, and we have another cheap option in Donovan Solano ($2,500), who’s having an excellent second half (.307/.381/.453).

GPP Stack #2: Houston Astros

The Astros could also be popular tonight, and I’m fine starting my builds with Michael Brantley ($3,000), Yordan Alvarez ($3,900), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) and GPP wunderkind Aledmys Diaz ($2,700). Sure, we can squeeze in Jose Altuve ($3,800) if we can afford him and there’s no reason to bet against Carlos Correa ($3,500) and value option Chas McCormick ($2,300) if he gets into the lineup. Angels SP Jaime Barria has been decent since returning from Triple-A in late July, but this Astros lineup is just too good at making contact and barreling up baseballs. Don’t forget to mix in a stack or two in your GPPs.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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