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Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs 12.5.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 46.5 Chiefs -8.5

Vegas is making it pretty clear, the Broncos are supposed to struggle offesively to keep up and the Chiefs should be ahead quite early. While I am usually inclined to agree, I would not be surprised to see the Chiefs come out and have one of their random struggle Sundays. All else being equal though, I do believe that the Chiefs get out big in the begining and the Broncos play a much too concervative game plan when trying to catch up and never really get themselves within distance of catching up.

Captains:

Chalk: Tyreek Hill, $16,200 (16-17%)

Based on our oprimizer the chalk captain on the even is non other than the Cheetah, and after 4 straight weeks with no less than 10 targets, including 18 targets in one of those I do not blame you. The numbers have been “meh” for the amount of voume so he is (a) underpriced for his upside and (b) due for a massive game. When it comes to the Chiefs we all know what they bring to the table so play your favorite.

Pivot: Javonte Williams, $11,400 (11-12%)

Finally, after 12 weeks we get to see what Javonte can do with the full work load. We also get the added benefit of a Chiefs defense that is historically mediocre against the run. I want to heap all kinds of platitudes and tell you guys and gals to go all in here. But we need to be aware the Chiefs could run away from this one early and Javonte will not get the workload we hope. But if this game does stay close there is an outside chance that Williams is the top raw points scorer on the slate. Do not play him in all of you lineups at captain but you need to have him inseveral of your builds as a captian. I can’t wait to see what this guy can do.

Contrarian #1: Patrick Mahomes: $18,600 (15-16%)

As I mentioned above, we all know what KC brings to the table. Mahomes has been very inconsistent this season but we all know his upside and the Broncos defense does not concern me in the slightest tonight. Would anyone be shocked if he threw for 350 and 3 td’s? No, ok me either.

Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce, $15,000 (11-12%)

The big three of the Chiefs are largely interchangeable in showdown contests but I had to put Kelce as the bottom of the three simply because Denver has covered tight ends very well all season As a matter of fact they are the 4th best in terms of DVOA against guarding tight ends. Kelce is no normal tight end though, and he can easily end the night with 11 targets, 8 catches for 119 and 2 TD’s but paying for all three studs on the Chiefs is gonna be a tough task so for that reason Kelce is at the bottom of the list for KC tonight.

Contrarian #3: Jerry Jeudy, $10,800 (5-6%)

Outside of Javonte I am grasping at straws with this offense. Teddy simply does not put up big games so it may be in your best interest to pick a different Denver wide receiver in each lineup, It just so happens that I am opting to lean on the talent of Jeudy and hope that Teddy decides to lean on him this week. You could just as easily go with Sutton or even Fant in this same scenario for the same reason. The Broncos will likely be playing from behing so you can leverage the low ownership of any of those pass catchers and and pray that they throw for the entire second half.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs 12.5. Flex plays:

  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Tyreek Hill
  3. Travis Kelce
  4. Teddy Bridgewater
  5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  6. Javonte Williams
  7. Jerry Jeudy
  8. Courtland Sutton
  9. Tim Patrick
  10. Noah Fant
  11. Mecole Hardman
  12. Chiefs
  13. Harrison Butker
  14. Mike Boone
  15. Broncos
  16. Darrel Williams
  17. Byron Pringle
  18. Albert Okwuegbunam
  19. Demarcus Robinson
  20. Eric Saubert
  21. Brandon McManus
  22. Blake Bell
  23. Kendall Hinton
  24. Josh Gordon
  25. Marcus Kemp
  26. Michael Burton
  27. Noah Gray

Kickers and defenses:

I’m not really interested in either of these defenses tonight. Teddy really is not prone to turning the ball over and the Broncos play uber conservative football. Even If the Chiefs get ahead big I do not really see them taking too many risks. Both kickers in Butker and McManus are low priced options for me to get close to double digit points if you are looking to load up on all of the obvious big name guys.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs 12.5. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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We enter lucky week 13 in the NFL with still seemingly the entire league up for grabs. Is every team mediocre this season or is every team elite? I guess that depends on your own opinion but mine is that a swath of injuries has resulted in every team being mostly average, and the Patriots once again rising to the top of it all. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. My first QB for GPPs this Sunday is Jalen Hurts ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD) who gets the pleasure of taking on the New York Jets. While the DFS sites definitely have not priced Hurts at a bargain for us, this is a matchup where he should be able to use his legs easily. When Hurts averages fewer than double digit rush attempts, his floor plummets to the single digits, but Hurts has yet to score below 16.7 DraftKings points when averaging at least double digit rush attempts, and his average is 20+. This Jets team is easily bottom three in the NFL in total DVOA, as well as DVOA against both the pass and the run. No matter what opposing teams want to do on a football field, the Jets just cannot stop it. While they surrender the most production to opposing runningbacks, Hurts essentially acts as this teams RB frequently. Hurts ownership should be depressed after he totally flopped last week and due to the fact that he comes into the week listed as questionable after splitting time with Minshew on the practice field all week. If Hurts is a full go, get some exposure to him in tournaments this weekend.

B. A team that is in a more obvious pass-heavy scenario than the Eagles is the Los Vegas Raider and their signal caller Derek Carr ($6,000 DK / $7,500 FD). Carr is priced significantly cheaper than Hurts across the industry, so if we are strapped for salary cap on Sunday we can certainly do worse than looking his way. He showed signs of a ceiling in primetime against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving as he lead his team to a win and dropped 24 DraftKings points. Prior to that however, he was pretty abysmal which is why we are still able to get him at this price point. As I mentioned, the Raiders draw a matchup that will be extremely pass-heavy, as the WFT rank 7th in DVOA against the rush but only 30th against the pass. Add to this the fact that the Raiders RB Josh Jacobs is literally always injured and is listed as questionable, and the Raiders might throw the ball on 80%+ of their plays, so this is a perfect spot for us to get a cheap arm that will be throwing all afternoon.

C. One of the four afternoon games that I, along with many playing DFS, will look to get plenty of exposure to is the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to LA to take on the Rams. Obviously I am not on the Jags side of this game, so my quarterback target here is Matthew Stafford ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD). Interestingly enough, with his price so similar on the two main sites, Stafford is actually the third most expensive QB option on DK but only the 6th on FanDuel, so he is an even stronger option on FD. Pricing aside, the Rams have a dream matchup on Sunday against the team ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass, and surprisingly only 14th in the league against the run. While the Rams somehow rank 7th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, that metric can be pretty noisy and is not one that we should put as much focus on as DVOA. The Rams are massive favorites in this spot, as they should be, and the Stafford to Kupp connection should be on full display.

The Stacks

A. To clear this up at the beginning, there is only one game that I will look to target a bring-back from in terms of my top three stacks for tournaments, and this of course, is not one of them. The Jets are an abysmal professional sports organization and have been for seemingly decades, and that will not be changing in week 13 of this NFL season. The Eagles have a running back that plays like he belongs on the Jets, so I will definitely be avoiding Miles Sanders who garnered serious ownership last week for some strange reason. Our options here are truly limited to DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, with a sprinkling of Quez Watkins or Jalen Reagor if you want to get cute and/or need to save some salary, because there are some solid spend-up options at both wideout and RB this Sunday.

B. This is the lone game where we do have a viable option for a game stack, but I will start with the Los Vegas Raiders. The Raiders may or may not have Josh Jacobs for this matchup, but as I mentioned I am more interested in Kenyan Drake and the passing game here regardless of the status of JJ. Of course if Jacobs sits out, Drake becomes one of the best value plays of the entire slate, but we do have a plethora of backs in prime spots at prime price tags for us to choose from this week. Hunter Renfrow has truly taken over this team, and with Darren Waller going down with an injury, that will only further boost Renfrow’s absolutely massive expected target share in this offense. We also have the value play of the week in Foster Moreau, as the sites did not have time to bump his price tag up after the Waller news and he sits at only $2.7K on DK. You can try to get cute and fade him in tournaments, but I will likely be looking to differentiate elsewhere as he is just such a great play at that price. Terry McLaurin and a newly healthy Logan Thomas are two great options on the other side of this game, and I do not hate getting exposure to Taylor Heinicke in my game stacks either as this game is one of the most appealing of the entire day from a fantasy perspective.

C. To close things out for week 13, we have an expected one-sided affair where I will be targeting the Rams side of the football and that will be all. Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, and the receiving corps of this team are just flat out awful at football. The Rams however, are very good at football and are a well-coached team with Darrell Henderson and Cooper Kupp being our top two options. Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham have been syphoning Kupp’s volume lately, but that will hopefully just lead to lower ownership on Kupp for us. While the two aforementioned wideouts are certainly viable, Tyler Higbee should come in extremely low-owned due to the Foster Moreau chalk and he is my second favorite option from this team as a result. Get as much exposure as you want in your Rams stacks, as this team has the highest implied total of any team on the entire main slate Sunday afternoon.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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We enter lucky week 13 in the NFL with still seemingly the entire league up for grabs. Is every team mediocre this season or is every team elite? I guess that depends on your own opinion but mine is that a swath of injuries has resulted in every team being mostly average, and the Patriots once again rising to the top of it all. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. My first QB for GPPs this Sunday is Jalen Hurts ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD) who gets the pleasure of taking on the New York Jets. While the DFS sites definitely have not priced Hurts at a bargain for us, this is a matchup where he should be able to use his legs easily. When Hurts averages fewer than double digit rush attempts, his floor plummets to the single digits, but Hurts has yet to score below 16.7 DraftKings points when averaging at least double digit rush attempts, and his average is 20+. This Jets team is easily bottom three in the NFL in total DVOA, as well as DVOA against both the pass and the run. No matter what opposing teams want to do on a football field, the Jets just cannot stop it. While they surrender the most production to opposing runningbacks, Hurts essentially acts as this teams RB frequently. Hurts ownership should be depressed after he totally flopped last week and due to the fact that he comes into the week listed as questionable after splitting time with Minshew on the practice field all week. If Hurts is a full go, get some exposure to him in tournaments this weekend.

B. A team that is in a more obvious pass-heavy scenario than the Eagles is the Los Vegas Raider and their signal caller Derek Carr ($6,000 DK / $7,500 FD). Carr is priced significantly cheaper than Hurts across the industry, so if we are strapped for salary cap on Sunday we can certainly do worse than looking his way. He showed signs of a ceiling in primetime against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving as he lead his team to a win and dropped 24 DraftKings points. Prior to that however, he was pretty abysmal which is why we are still able to get him at this price point. As I mentioned, the Raiders draw a matchup that will be extremely pass-heavy, as the WFT rank 7th in DVOA against the rush but only 30th against the pass. Add to this the fact that the Raiders RB Josh Jacobs is literally always injured and is listed as questionable, and the Raiders might throw the ball on 80%+ of their plays, so this is a perfect spot for us to get a cheap arm that will be throwing all afternoon.

C. One of the four afternoon games that I, along with many playing DFS, will look to get plenty of exposure to is the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to LA to take on the Rams. Obviously I am not on the Jags side of this game, so my quarterback target here is Matthew Stafford ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD). Interestingly enough, with his price so similar on the two main sites, Stafford is actually the third most expensive QB option on DK but only the 6th on FanDuel, so he is an even stronger option on FD. Pricing aside, the Rams have a dream matchup on Sunday against the team ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass, and surprisingly only 14th in the league against the run. While the Rams somehow rank 7th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, that metric can be pretty noisy and is not one that we should put as much focus on as DVOA. The Rams are massive favorites in this spot, as they should be, and the Stafford to Kupp connection should be on full display.

The Stacks

A. To clear this up at the beginning, there is only one game that I will look to target a bring-back from in terms of my top three stacks for tournaments, and this of course, is not one of them. The Jets are an abysmal professional sports organization and have been for seemingly decades, and that will not be changing in week 13 of this NFL season. The Eagles have a running back that plays like he belongs on the Jets, so I will definitely be avoiding Miles Sanders who garnered serious ownership last week for some strange reason. Our options here are truly limited to DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, with a sprinkling of Quez Watkins or Jalen Reagor if you want to get cute and/or need to save some salary, because there are some solid spend-up options at both wideout and RB this Sunday.

B. This is the lone game where we do have a viable option for a game stack, but I will start with the Los Vegas Raiders. The Raiders may or may not have Josh Jacobs for this matchup, but as I mentioned I am more interested in Kenyan Drake and the passing game here regardless of the status of JJ. Of course if Jacobs sits out, Drake becomes one of the best value plays of the entire slate, but we do have a plethora of backs in prime spots at prime price tags for us to choose from this week. Hunter Renfrow has truly taken over this team, and with Darren Waller going down with an injury, that will only further boost Renfrow’s absolutely massive expected target share in this offense. We also have the value play of the week in Foster Moreau, as the sites did not have time to bump his price tag up after the Waller news and he sits at only $2.7K on DK. You can try to get cute and fade him in tournaments, but I will likely be looking to differentiate elsewhere as he is just such a great play at that price. Terry McLaurin and a newly healthy Logan Thomas are two great options on the other side of this game, and I do not hate getting exposure to Taylor Heinicke in my game stacks either as this game is one of the most appealing of the entire day from a fantasy perspective.

C. To close things out for week 13, we have an expected one-sided affair where I will be targeting the Rams side of the football and that will be all. Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, and the receiving corps of this team are just flat out awful at football. The Rams however, are very good at football and are a well-coached team with Darrell Henderson and Cooper Kupp being our top two options. Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham have been syphoning Kupp’s volume lately, but that will hopefully just lead to lower ownership on Kupp for us. While the two aforementioned wideouts are certainly viable, Tyler Higbee should come in extremely low-owned due to the Foster Moreau chalk and he is my second favorite option from this team as a result. Get as much exposure as you want in your Rams stacks, as this team has the highest implied total of any team on the entire main slate Sunday afternoon.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 12 Browns at Ravens 11.28.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 47 Ravens: -3

This one just feels like a game where a single person will solo takedown the $11 MME contest. We have tons of questionable guys who are expected to play in what Vegas is implying is essentially a pickem game. Then to make it even more interesting, both of these teams’ offenses can and have crapped the bed in contests where the should score like tonight.

Captains:

Chalk: Lamar Jackson, $18,600 :

To the surprise of nobody Lamar is the lock down #1 chalk by a wide margin being projected at over 20% while nobody else is over 10%. I’m going to frame it like this. Will he be the likely top scoring option on the day? Absolutely. Will you take down a showdown contest by yourself with him as your captain? No. If over 20% of the field is on one player as captain you need to build some lineups where you pivot away from him if you to have an opportunity for a big night. Don’t full fade, but do go underweight in one specific scenario. The leverage is far to high for you to not do it.

Pivot: Nick Chubb, $16,800 : 9-10%

I know that Hunt is expected to return after missing the last month with a calf injury but my expectation is that Hunt will be extremely limited and he and D’Ernest Johnson will split the backup duties tonight. I maintain that Chubb is one of the top 3 running backs in the NFL and would have stat lines similar to a healthy Dalvin Cook if he did not have a rushing title winner as his backup. With Kyrie Irving OBJ now in LA the Browns have finally begun to do what they should have been doing since week one, feed their running backs. In the last 2 games Chubb is averaging 7.41 YPC and getting two catches a game and 3 total TD’s. The man is a beast and we can get him at less that half the ownership with similar upside to Lamar. He is the de facto #1 captain for me based on that.

Contrarian #1: Marquis Brown, $16,200: 7-8%

Depending on how people treat his thigh injury when building their lineups Hollywood may find himself closer to 5% than 8% when it is all said and done. It is clear that he is Lamar’s number one receiver and he has upside for days. For me he is one of those players that I am either going to play as the captain or not at all. He has had a few different games this season where he has dropped wide open touchdowns and multiple ones at that. He is either scoring 20 or more DK points or under 10. There is no in between. In the lineups where you do not put him as a captain I recommend flexing the guy below instead.

Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews, $12,300: 7-8%

It took a little time to get Andrews going but in his last 4 weeks he has gotten no less that 7 targets in the last 4 weeks and in the lineups as I said above where I want to play the Hollywood Brown has the drops narrative Mark Andrews makes the most sense. When the Ravens get down into the red zone I am expecting Jackson to target Andrews over Brown with Cleveland’s secondary and defense as a whole being back to 100%. Denzel Ward should be able to keep Hollywood covered up in those scenarios where he is unable to utilize his straight line speed.

Contrarian #3: Jarvis Landry, $11,700: 6-7%

Jarvis Landry was the better Browns wide receiver throughout the duration of time when him and Kyrie Irving OBJ shared the field, full stop. I know he isn’t the flashy name and he has a history of being known as “the possession receiver” but he can and has put up 19+ DK point games when Cleveland needs to pass the ball over the last few years including 3 of the last 5 games he played last season during the playoff push and week one against the Chiefs where he caught 5 of 5 and ran in a touchdown. And it is his birthday for those of you who love a birthday narrative.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 12 Browns at Ravens 11.28. Flex plays:

  1. Lamar Jackson
  2. Nick Chubb
  3. Mark Andrews
  4. Baker Mayfield
  5. Marquise Brown
  6. Jarvis Landry
  7. Justin Tucker
  8. Devonta Freeman
  9. Rashod Bateman
  10. Sammy Watkins
  11. Austin Hooper
  12. Kareem Hunt
  13. Devin Duvernay
  14. Ravens
  15. Browns
  16. Kareem Hunt
  17. David Njoku
  18. Chase McLaughlin
  19. Latavius Murray
  20. Rashard Higgins
  21. Donovan Peoples-Jones
  22. D’Ernest Johnson
  23. Ja’Marcus Bradley
  24. Demetric Felton
  25. Harrison Bryant

Kickers and defenses:

I can and will run out some lineups with both either defense tonight. In my summary paragraph I mentioned it but if you glossed over it both teams can and will have terrible offensive outings at random points in the season regardless of who they are facing including last week where the Ravens scored 10 points against the Dolphins and week 7 where they got the snot beat out of them by the Bengals. And the Browns have Baker Mayfield throwing the ball, not much else needs to be said. Justin Tucker is always in play as he puts up WR2 numbers each and every week (9.5 DK PPG average, better than Jarvis Landry)

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 12 Browns at Ravens 11.28 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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While I am working with limited time on this article due to the holiday, we also have a much smaller slate than usual which leaves us with limited options. As such, I will keep the extra commentary short and sweet and look to focus on the top core quarterbacks and stacks that we can focus on for week 12 of the NFL. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. We have an absolute toilet bowl with the Texans taking on the Jets, and despite Houston drawing a prime matchup I cannot bring myself to target that mess of a team. Instead, I will be targeting Matt Ryan ($5,500 DK / $7,100 FD) of the Atlanta Falcons as he throws against the weak defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars. It has been a pretty turbulent season for Ryan, at times looking like his old self and at times looking like he should have retired long ago. This is a matchup where he should be able to finally look like his old self again after the Patriots defense absolutely embarrassed his offensive line in week 11. The Jags rank 29th in DVOA which is the second worst on this main slate, and also rank second to last in the NFL against the pass. Interestingly enough, they rank 5th in DVOA against the run somehow, so we should expect the Falcons to look to attack through the air early and often, which only further boosts Ryan’s ceiling.

B. Another team that was recently embarrassed by my New England Patriots is the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert ($6,600 DK / $7,800 FD) is an excellent option for our DFS lineups as he matches up against a Denver Broncos defense that ranks just 26th in the NFL in DVOA, 17th against the pass, and 28th against the run. While the Broncos are much more susceptible to the run than they are the pass, this offense features one of the best pass-catching running backs in the entire NFL, which allows Herbert to rack up the fantasy points. This game has a close spread and the Chargers have roughly a 25 point implied team total as of this writing. This should be easy sledding all around as the matchup between the Chargers offensive line and the Broncos defensive line (sans Von Miller) rates out as the third best for run potential on the entire slate, so we can confidently load up on LA on Sunday.

C. Coincidentally enough, my QB3 for week 12 of the NFL will be the same as the QB3 I wrote in this spot last week, Joe Burrow ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD). After seeing a price drop and drawing a matchup against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that he threw three touchdowns against earlier in the season, how could I stay away? The Steelers are somewhat of a slight pass funnel, ranking 26th in pass DVOA but 16th in run DVOA, but they also rank 25th in total DVOA and are a team that the young LSU product is familiar with. We have another spread within a touchdown and another implied total of roughly 25 points, which is tied for the highest mark this week of any team not wielding Tom Brady. While Joe did not blow the doors of in terms of fantasy points due to a lack of passing yards despite the three house calls, I do not expect that to be the case this week.

The Stacks

A. While I will definitely admit that it is slim pickings as far as viable fantasy options go on the Atlanta Falcons, if this offensive line is able to give Matt Ryan just a bit more time than he can put Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts to excellent use. These are the clear top two dogs in this offense from a fantasy point production standpoint, and any Falcons stack should honestly start with either one or both of them. After that, we could look to Russel Gage as the best option from the wideouts, or we could get weird with UMass Amherst grad Tajae Sharp or Olamide Zaccheaus, but given the likely low ownership we are already getting, I do not see that as being a necessary route this Sunday. On the other side of the football, we could listen to the coach speak and load up on Laviska Shenault, but coach speak usually just leads to abnormally inflated ownership that makes it more worth fading than believing. Despite the Jags being in shambles, this Falcons defense is not good either so I am fine using James Robinson, Marvin Jones, or even Dan Arnold as bring back options if we look to game-stack, despite that not being a totally necessary route to takedown tournaments.

B. I expect the Chargers to potentially be the chalkiest of the three teams that I have highlighted as our top stack options on Sunday, so with that in mind we will need to look to differentiate with who we choose for the stack or who we fill in around our stack. Austin Ekeler has proven himself to be the new CMC, as outside of a few random down weeks he has absolutely crushed for fantasy this season and is obviously the top option on this team. We had a Mike Williams sighting last week, and he should still be lower-owned than Keenan Allen at a massive price discount as well. The tight ends on this team truly do not do much of anything, so our best leverage point seems to be targeting Williams over Allen. On the Broncos side of the ball, they do not have a heavy pass-catching RB so I will be avoiding that, and instead will target Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, or Noah Fant as a bring-back option. This game has a total approaching 50 and has the second highest mark of any game on the main slate this Sunday so we should look to get exposure.

C. To close things out for week 12 of the NFL, I will be going back to the Bengals well as they are home favorites against a Steelers team that they embarrassed earlier this season. Joe Mixon is a pass-catching RB that we can pair with our QB, but the star of this offense is rookie sensation Ja’Marr Chase. Tee Higgins has disappeared quite a bit recently, so I think our second best option for wideouts is Tyler Boyd who was peppered with targets last week. C.J. Uzomah is serviceable at an a TE position that continues to be absolutely brutal this season, but Chase and Boyd are my top two targets in this spot. We have a clear head of each of the three skill position groups for the Steelers, which makes our job much easier. Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth are the Steelers that we should look at for a bring-back, with Harris having the highest floor/ceiling combination of the three for Sunday.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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While I am working with limited time on this article due to the holiday, we also have a much smaller slate than usual which leaves us with limited options. As such, I will keep the extra commentary short and sweet and look to focus on the top core quarterbacks and stacks that we can focus on for week 12 of the NFL. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. We have an absolute toilet bowl with the Texans taking on the Jets, and despite Houston drawing a prime matchup I cannot bring myself to target that mess of a team. Instead, I will be targeting Matt Ryan ($5,500 DK / $7,100 FD) of the Atlanta Falcons as he throws against the weak defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars. It has been a pretty turbulent season for Ryan, at times looking like his old self and at times looking like he should have retired long ago. This is a matchup where he should be able to finally look like his old self again after the Patriots defense absolutely embarrassed his offensive line in week 11. The Jags rank 29th in DVOA which is the second worst on this main slate, and also rank second to last in the NFL against the pass. Interestingly enough, they rank 5th in DVOA against the run somehow, so we should expect the Falcons to look to attack through the air early and often, which only further boosts Ryan’s ceiling.

B. Another team that was recently embarrassed by my New England Patriots is the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert ($6,600 DK / $7,800 FD) is an excellent option for our DFS lineups as he matches up against a Denver Broncos defense that ranks just 26th in the NFL in DVOA, 17th against the pass, and 28th against the run. While the Broncos are much more susceptible to the run than they are the pass, this offense features one of the best pass-catching running backs in the entire NFL, which allows Herbert to rack up the fantasy points. This game has a close spread and the Chargers have roughly a 25 point implied team total as of this writing. This should be easy sledding all around as the matchup between the Chargers offensive line and the Broncos defensive line (sans Von Miller) rates out as the third best for run potential on the entire slate, so we can confidently load up on LA on Sunday.

C. Coincidentally enough, my QB3 for week 12 of the NFL will be the same as the QB3 I wrote in this spot last week, Joe Burrow ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD). After seeing a price drop and drawing a matchup against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that he threw three touchdowns against earlier in the season, how could I stay away? The Steelers are somewhat of a slight pass funnel, ranking 26th in pass DVOA but 16th in run DVOA, but they also rank 25th in total DVOA and are a team that the young LSU product is familiar with. We have another spread within a touchdown and another implied total of roughly 25 points, which is tied for the highest mark this week of any team not wielding Tom Brady. While Joe did not blow the doors of in terms of fantasy points due to a lack of passing yards despite the three house calls, I do not expect that to be the case this week.

The Stacks

A. While I will definitely admit that it is slim pickings as far as viable fantasy options go on the Atlanta Falcons, if this offensive line is able to give Matt Ryan just a bit more time than he can put Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts to excellent use. These are the clear top two dogs in this offense from a fantasy point production standpoint, and any Falcons stack should honestly start with either one or both of them. After that, we could look to Russel Gage as the best option from the wideouts, or we could get weird with UMass Amherst grad Tajae Sharp or Olamide Zaccheaus, but given the likely low ownership we are already getting, I do not see that as being a necessary route this Sunday. On the other side of the football, we could listen to the coach speak and load up on Laviska Shenault, but coach speak usually just leads to abnormally inflated ownership that makes it more worth fading than believing. Despite the Jags being in shambles, this Falcons defense is not good either so I am fine using James Robinson, Marvin Jones, or even Dan Arnold as bring back options if we look to game-stack, despite that not being a totally necessary route to takedown tournaments.

B. I expect the Chargers to potentially be the chalkiest of the three teams that I have highlighted as our top stack options on Sunday, so with that in mind we will need to look to differentiate with who we choose for the stack or who we fill in around our stack. Austin Ekeler has proven himself to be the new CMC, as outside of a few random down weeks he has absolutely crushed for fantasy this season and is obviously the top option on this team. We had a Mike Williams sighting last week, and he should still be lower-owned than Keenan Allen at a massive price discount as well. The tight ends on this team truly do not do much of anything, so our best leverage point seems to be targeting Williams over Allen. On the Broncos side of the ball, they do not have a heavy pass-catching RB so I will be avoiding that, and instead will target Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, or Noah Fant as a bring-back option. This game has a total approaching 50 and has the second highest mark of any game on the main slate this Sunday so we should look to get exposure.

C. To close things out for week 12 of the NFL, I will be going back to the Bengals well as they are home favorites against a Steelers team that they embarrassed earlier this season. Joe Mixon is a pass-catching RB that we can pair with our QB, but the star of this offense is rookie sensation Ja’Marr Chase. Tee Higgins has disappeared quite a bit recently, so I think our second best option for wideouts is Tyler Boyd who was peppered with targets last week. C.J. Uzomah is serviceable at an a TE position that continues to be absolutely brutal this season, but Chase and Boyd are my top two targets in this spot. We have a clear head of each of the three skill position groups for the Steelers, which makes our job much easier. Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth are the Steelers that we should look at for a bring-back, with Harris having the highest floor/ceiling combination of the three for Sunday.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 11 Steelers at Chargers 11.21.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 47.5, Chargers -6

Something is going to have to give in this Steelers/Chargers game. We have one of the worst defensive fronts in the league versus the worst offensive front. The chargers are dead last in missed tackles, ninth worst in total pressures, sixth worst in sacks, and the worst pair in interior run stoppers in the league. The Steelers are 3rd worst in Run blocking only averaging 3.57 YPC with Najee Harris as their main back (that honestly goes to show how good Najee will be given his production this year) and are only giving Big Ben 2.2 seconds to throw over the length of the season. BUT, even with no time to throw, Ben is on pace for 4,000 passing and 20 TD’s with only 8 picks, and this will be a game where he will likely need to throw at least 40 times in order to keep up. So, this is going to be a very interesting situation tonight. If the Steelers give Ben closer to 2.7 seconds (which is possible given the weakness of the Chargers D) this could very well turn into a shootout.

Captains:

Chalk: Austin Ekeler, $16,200: 16%

I was really expecting to see Herbert as the chalk play but to my surprise all signs point to Ekeler being the big chalk by a wide margin. While I get it to some degree, the Steelers are the 3rd best in DVOA against pass catching running backs and Ekeler has not been getting the volume in the run game to lead me towards playing Ekeler in this contest, especially if he is going to be the highest owned captain on the night.

Pivot: Najee Harris, $17,700: 10%

I know I mentioned just how badly the Steelers have been run blocking for Najee but the Chargers are horrid on the interior and Najee’s usage is massive. If he gets is usual 25-30 targets and touches tonight and LA gives up their usual 4.75 yards per carry Najee has a legitimate 30+ DK point ceiling this evening as around 10% caption ownership. If you are banking that the Steelers O-line can do anything against this Chargers defense Najee needs to be one of your top one or two options at captain. It is also worth noting that Draftkings is so nervous about his ceiling tonight that they pulled all of Najee’s props on this game.

Contrarian #1: Dionte Johnson, $13,200 : 9%

Maybe it is all of the “Big Ben has a noodle arm” people out there, maybe people think the Steelers are terrible, maybe people know how bad the line is and folks just assume it hurts the receivers. No matter what it is people don’t realize that Dionte is is on pace for around 1200 yards and 6 TD’s as the 8th most targeted receiver in the NFL while only playing 8 games. If you translate those numbers to a per game basis he is 6th in the league in targets per game (5th if you don’t count Ridley), 4th in YAC, and 8th in plays of over 30 yards. He also has not scored less than 14.3 DK point in any game this season outside of week 9 where he had 11.7. In a game where the Steelers will presumably need to throw a Juju-less Steelers team will likely lean on Dionte in a big way.

Contrarian #2: Justin Herbert, $16,800 : 7%

While the Steelers are solid against pass catching receivers they are actually a middle of the road defense against receivers ranking 15th in DVOA in the passing game which forces me to take a long look at a 7% captain Herbert. His props imply that he should end up with close to 300 yards through the air and at least 2 td’s and I am inclined think he exceeds both of those in a game that will likely be more of a shootout than people are expecting.

Contrarian #3: Mike Williams, $11,100: 8%

If you have been a member for any length of time this year you know that we have been targeting #1 receivers against the Steelers all season with good success. They have been pretty susceptible to big plays all season allowing 30 explosive plays of at least 20 yards in the passing game on the year. While everyone is going to lean towards Keenan (and I get it) I want to take advantage of the ownership discount and the big play ability of Williams and bank on him catching a couple of long bombs against the Steelers tonight.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 11 Steelers at Chargers 11.21 Flex Plays:

  1. Najee Harris
  2. Diontae Johnson
  3. Justin Herbert
  4. Mike Williams
  5. Austin Ekeler
  6. Keenan Allen
  7. Chase Claypool
  8. Ben Roethlisberger
  9. Pat Freiermuth
  10. James Washington
  11. Chargers
  12. Steelers
  13. Jared Cook
  14. Dustin Hopkins
  15. Chris Boswell
  16. Ray-Ray McCloud III
  17. Eric Ebron
  18. Donald Parham Jr.
  19. Jalen Guyton

Kickers and defenses:

If you are going to try and fit multiple studs into your lineup this evening you can make a case for playing either kicker in tonight’s game, but I would do so sparingly. With players who could potentially have a good performance like James Washington, Pat Freiermuth, and the husk of Eric Ebron expected to play you “should” be able to fit skill players into your lineups that will fit whatever script that you are trying to go with. There is an ever smaller chance that the defenses could have a successful night in DFS as we all know the offensive line struggles of the Steelers and the seemingly random games where Herbert just flat out forgets how to read defenses. With TJ Watt presumably putting pressure on Herbert for the entire game there is an outside chance that he will have one those games so I can not rule that out as a viable game script.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 11 Steelers at Chargers 11.21: helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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The grind continues on as we enter week 11 of the NFL season. We have 12 games on tap for us to target on the main slate including the alleged game of the week that everyone will be looking to target. I will be avoiding Cowboys vs. Chiefs for the purposes of this article because I expect that to be the highest owned game by far. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. My strategy of targeting whatever offense is facing the New York Jets has worked out well so far this season, although it will really be put to the test this week. Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500 DK / $7,000 FD) will be at the helm as the Dolphins take on the Jets in an AFC East toilet bowl. I was wondering how the Falcons had managed to secure four wins despite being a horrendous football team, and then realized half of those wins were against the two teams playing in this game. The Jets are ranked dead last in team DVOA and dead last in DVOA against the pass. They are also vulnerable against the run, as they rank second to last in run DVOA and dead last in DvP against opposing running backs. Any way that you look at this matchup, it is favorable for the Fins and I expect their offense to roll in this spot even though they have not been impressive at all thus far this season. This game will not be popular at all despite having a middling total and a low spread so we can take advantage of the low ownership in tournaments.

B. Another team that we should look to buy low on in terms of both ownership and pricing is the Cleveland Browns. Baker Mayfield ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) is another extremely cheap quarterback option for us this Sunday with some upside due to the matchup. The Browns draw the hapless Detroit Lions, who unsurprisingly rank towards the bottom of the league in nearly every defensive metric. While this offensive/defensive line matchup ranks towards the middle of the pack in terms of sack potential, the Lions struggle to defend against both the pass and the run. The Browns are listed as double-digit favorites in this spot, and it is definitely a get-right opportunity after they were shellacked by the future super bowl champion New England Patriots last weekend. Target Baker and one or two of his weapons this weekend as a cheap and low-owned stack for GPPs.

C. With my first two quarterback options being on the more risky side of things, I will go a bit safer with my QB3 and target Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD). Burrow draws a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who rank below average in DVOA against the pass, and about average against the run. This is not exactly a dream matchup from a pace and DVOA perspective, but we do have what is surprisingly a top three total of the entire main slate, along with a very low 1 point spread. If there is an under the radar game that could turn into a shootout, this is certainly it. We have a plethora of options on both sides of the ball that I will cover below, but JB should be able to bounce back and post 20+ fantasy points after his brutal single digit effort against the Browns last time out.

The Stacks

A. One of my favorite best ball targets due to his boom or bust nature was Davante Parker, but I have had the absolute worst injury luck this year. Anyway, the Dolphins will be without him and instead rely on pass-catchers like Jaylen Waddle, Albert Wilson, and Mike Gesicki. Waddle is the only wideout that I have interest in from this team, but I have seen Gesicki getting a ton of buzz around the DFS industry leading up to Sunday. He is priced up at $5.2K on DraftKings, which is a bit more than I usually like to spend at such a weak position, but he is nevertheless a very strong option due to his matchup against the Jets. Gaskin is another option for our Dolphins stacks as he is priced in the mid-tier and should go extremely overlooked. On the Jets side of the ball, you will not catch me looking for a run-back as Joe “Elite?” Flacco will be taking the reigns of this offense. This is one of the most Jet-like moves we will see and this franchise just continues to be the laughing stock of the NFL. You could try to get weird with a Corey Davis bring-back and hope that Flacco still has some elite in him, but only if you are MME-ing in a low-stakes tournament on Sunday.

B. Unfortunately we once again have a situation where we are targeting teams that have horrendous defensive units but also poor offensive units, which results in a one-sided team stack as opposed to correlated game stacks. The Browns will be the only team that I look to get exposure to in this game, as the Lions are down there with the Texans, Jets, and Jaguars in the dregs of the NFL. As for the Browns, they will be returning star RB Nick Chubb, with week 10 value lock smash play D’Ernest Johnson backing him up since Hunt remains out. We are not getting a discount on Chubb and it is always tricky targeting an RB coming back from injury, but he is certainly in play for tournaments. As far as the pass-catchers go, DPJ (Donovan Peoples-Jones) has been putting together the best season of his career, although that is not saying much, while Jarvis Landry continues to struggle mightily. Landry is still the top option to pair up with Baker, although DPJ and tight ends Austin Hooper/David Njoku are also potential options that will not cost much in terms of salary, and also should come in at extremely low ownership.

C. To close things out for week 11 of the NFL, we finally have a game where we can look to get exposure to both sides, as the Bengals vs. the Raiders is an ideal game stack environment. Kicking things off with the Cinci side of the house, we have Joe Mixon as a popular RB option as he is priced just a hair below the top tier and I think he is in an excellent spot for Sunday. We can also get exposure to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd as a bit of a three-headed monster of wideouts. C.J. Uzomah has shown glimpses of a ceiling at the tight end position, but I would try to pick my spots and limit exposure to two of these four receivers in any single lineup. On the Raiders side of the football, we have another solid RB option in Josh Jacobs, who is significantly cheaper than Mixon and also in a better situation given his team is at home in a near pick ’em game. Hunter Renfrow is the clear top dog in this offense, and we can look to Waller although he has not been performing anywhere near the level that he was last season and his price has not come down quite enough to fully reflect that.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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The grind continues on as we enter week 11 of the NFL season. We have 12 games on tap for us to target on the main slate including the alleged game of the week that everyone will be looking to target. I will be avoiding Cowboys vs. Chiefs for the purposes of this article because I expect that to be the highest owned game by far. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. My strategy of targeting whatever offense is facing the New York Jets has worked out well so far this season, although it will really be put to the test this week. Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500 DK / $7,000 FD) will be at the helm as the Dolphins take on the Jets in an AFC East toilet bowl. I was wondering how the Falcons had managed to secure four wins despite being a horrendous football team, and then realized half of those wins were against the two teams playing in this game. The Jets are ranked dead last in team DVOA and dead last in DVOA against the pass. They are also vulnerable against the run, as they rank second to last in run DVOA and dead last in DvP against opposing running backs. Any way that you look at this matchup, it is favorable for the Fins and I expect their offense to roll in this spot even though they have not been impressive at all thus far this season. This game will not be popular at all despite having a middling total and a low spread so we can take advantage of the low ownership in tournaments.

B. Another team that we should look to buy low on in terms of both ownership and pricing is the Cleveland Browns. Baker Mayfield ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) is another extremely cheap quarterback option for us this Sunday with some upside due to the matchup. The Browns draw the hapless Detroit Lions, who unsurprisingly rank towards the bottom of the league in nearly every defensive metric. While this offensive/defensive line matchup ranks towards the middle of the pack in terms of sack potential, the Lions struggle to defend against both the pass and the run. The Browns are listed as double-digit favorites in this spot, and it is definitely a get-right opportunity after they were shellacked by the future super bowl champion New England Patriots last weekend. Target Baker and one or two of his weapons this weekend as a cheap and low-owned stack for GPPs.

C. With my first two quarterback options being on the more risky side of things, I will go a bit safer with my QB3 and target Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD). Burrow draws a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who rank below average in DVOA against the pass, and about average against the run. This is not exactly a dream matchup from a pace and DVOA perspective, but we do have what is surprisingly a top three total of the entire main slate, along with a very low 1 point spread. If there is an under the radar game that could turn into a shootout, this is certainly it. We have a plethora of options on both sides of the ball that I will cover below, but JB should be able to bounce back and post 20+ fantasy points after his brutal single digit effort against the Browns last time out.

The Stacks

A. One of my favorite best ball targets due to his boom or bust nature was Davante Parker, but I have had the absolute worst injury luck this year. Anyway, the Dolphins will be without him and instead rely on pass-catchers like Jaylen Waddle, Albert Wilson, and Mike Gesicki. Waddle is the only wideout that I have interest in from this team, but I have seen Gesicki getting a ton of buzz around the DFS industry leading up to Sunday. He is priced up at $5.2K on DraftKings, which is a bit more than I usually like to spend at such a weak position, but he is nevertheless a very strong option due to his matchup against the Jets. Gaskin is another option for our Dolphins stacks as he is priced in the mid-tier and should go extremely overlooked. On the Jets side of the ball, you will not catch me looking for a run-back as Joe “Elite?” Flacco will be taking the reigns of this offense. This is one of the most Jet-like moves we will see and this franchise just continues to be the laughing stock of the NFL. You could try to get weird with a Corey Davis bring-back and hope that Flacco still has some elite in him, but only if you are MME-ing in a low-stakes tournament on Sunday.

B. Unfortunately we once again have a situation where we are targeting teams that have horrendous defensive units but also poor offensive units, which results in a one-sided team stack as opposed to correlated game stacks. The Browns will be the only team that I look to get exposure to in this game, as the Lions are down there with the Texans, Jets, and Jaguars in the dregs of the NFL. As for the Browns, they will be returning star RB Nick Chubb, with week 10 value lock smash play D’Ernest Johnson backing him up since Hunt remains out. We are not getting a discount on Chubb and it is always tricky targeting an RB coming back from injury, but he is certainly in play for tournaments. As far as the pass-catchers go, DPJ (Donovan Peoples-Jones) has been putting together the best season of his career, although that is not saying much, while Jarvis Landry continues to struggle mightily. Landry is still the top option to pair up with Baker, although DPJ and tight ends Austin Hooper/David Njoku are also potential options that will not cost much in terms of salary, and also should come in at extremely low ownership.

C. To close things out for week 11 of the NFL, we finally have a game where we can look to get exposure to both sides, as the Bengals vs. the Raiders is an ideal game stack environment. Kicking things off with the Cinci side of the house, we have Joe Mixon as a popular RB option as he is priced just a hair below the top tier and I think he is in an excellent spot for Sunday. We can also get exposure to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd as a bit of a three-headed monster of wideouts. C.J. Uzomah has shown glimpses of a ceiling at the tight end position, but I would try to pick my spots and limit exposure to two of these four receivers in any single lineup. On the Raiders side of the football, we have another solid RB option in Josh Jacobs, who is significantly cheaper than Mixon and also in a better situation given his team is at home in a near pick ’em game. Hunter Renfrow is the clear top dog in this offense, and we can look to Waller although he has not been performing anywhere near the level that he was last season and his price has not come down quite enough to fully reflect that.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Sea Island Golf Club

7,005 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bermuda

Sea Island was designed in 1928 by Harry Colt and C.H. Allison but did undergo some restorations from Tom Fazio in 1998. I always note that the main takeaway from a Fazio design is the extreme undulation that can be found throughout, but I think he did an excellent job of keeping the links-style nature about as pronounced as the day it was constructed.

One of the most notable things to keep in mind is that players will be forced to play either their Thursday or Friday rounds on the Plantation Course. Rotational events are always a little more challenging to handicap, but there are at least some similarities in green size and grass type. I’m not going to go wild trying to model both courses into the mix since I think it does more harm than good when the more critical weekend rounds are going to be found at the same track, but I don’t mind adding in some emphasis on par-five scoring since the one-off day will feature four par-fives. I didn’t do that in my model, but I certainly believe it is on the table. Wind typically plays as a factor with narrow landing areas off the tee, and it is a benefit if you can find the short grass. On average, the field connects on 80 percent of their greens in regulation when hitting their approach shots from the fairway, which is right up there with the highest GIR percentage on tour. The putting surfaces are larger than average, and we have an eye-popping nine par-fours that measure between 400-450 yards. I will call it 10 for the sake of my research since one of them is just outside at 452, but the only two outliers are the 368-yard 8th hole and the 470-yard 18th.

The last two items I feel are worth mentioning would be 8.7% more putts get made from 10 feet and beyond here than a typical stop. That is a little troublesome when building models because it suggests a putting contest, and then the distance of 125-175 on approach shots is 8.5% higher than average. All other ranges are below the median output total. Tournaments like this are tough to measure since putting plays such a prominent role, but I tried to get unique in my outlook. As always you can listen to any of my podcasts to get a more in-depth breakdown, including the one I do weekly with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck where we handicap the entire show live at 5:00 pacific time on Tuesday.

  • Weighted Strokes Gained Category – Easy Courses/Bermuda Grass/Under 7,200 Yards (30%) – It was a relatively even split between the three, but to me, those three stats encompassed what I wanted to find at a venue that isn’t perfect from a quantifiable sense. It also let me combine statistics together that are 1. Predicable and consistent when we get set ups like this and 2. Might go under the radar as primary pieces of a calculation. 
  • Weighted Putting + Iron Play (30%) –  I also did 30% on a recalculated metric that took proximity from 125-175 yards and putting from five feet and beyond on Bermuda greens and combined them together with a 65/35 split of putting over proximity to form a unique category there. That is the opposite of conventional wisdom when you typically do something like that since proximity tends to be more important than a random putting total, but I didn’t see a great deal of predictability from that range in past leaderboards. Yes, the plurality of shots come there, but the easy answer remains that more putts are being made from 10-feet and beyond, which naturally means irons aren’t being hit as close. 
  • Moderate To Severe Wind (10%) – It is still an easy course, but the one true defense can be the gusts. I thought it helped to have it in my model to an extent, even if it is an outlier type stat.
  • Greens In Regulation Gained (15%) –  I noted this on my ‘Be The Number’ podcast that I wanted to try and avoid the GIR or accuracy routes this week because it starts making the same builds as every other user. That obviously has less importance in the betting market since what others are betting has little impact on what I am going to do, but I did like this stat because of the correlation I found from past leaderboards
  • Par-Four Scoring 400-450 Yards (15%) – That is another outlier category that isn’t great for modeling purposes, but the fact that I have rounded us off to have 10 means over 55% of the scoring chances come in this precise zone. That has to mean something when we are condensing data into the same range over and over again. 

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Scottie Scheffler (10,900) – It has been a quick turnaround for Scottie Scheffler, who is just a few weeks removed from a much cheaper price tag. However, some of these spots can be intriguing when a player is marginally overpriced but comes in as one of the pivots of the range. I am curious to see where Scheffler heads by Wednesday night, but it is the same theory I mentioned with him last week at the Houston Open. My model thinks he is a negative value against his price. A positive value against his ownership. And he is the betting favorite in all H2H matchups. Not that I take that to be worth a ton, but it at least doubles down the notion that multiple outlets have him as the man to beat. I’m going to keep an eye on where his popularity goes, but I can find interest in playing him if this hovers anywhere near 10 percent.

Webb Simpson (10,700) – My model always likes Webb Simpson, and it particularly finds interest in him when he gets handed a track where he has found past success. We see that here with two top-three results over his past three showings, although it is worth noting that there have been two additional finishes inside the 30s since 2016. That technically means this might not be as robust of a venue as locations like the Wyndham Championship, Sony Open or RBC Heritage, but there isn’t a better golfer on tour when it comes to predictability at the same events yearly.

Louis Oosthuizen ($10,400) – Louis Oosthuizen has surprisingly gone ice cold with his putter, losing in four straight events and averaging negative-two strokes per start. Oosthuizen is leading this field in strokes gained tee to green over his past 24 rounds, so if he is able to flip the script with what should be the best part of his game, the stats are trending towards a big result. I do have some concerns with him for cash-game-type contests because it is always scary when what you do best isn’t working, but that can easily be fixed, especially for something like an outright ticket. We don’t need the safety in a bet like that and just want upside. As far as things go for GPPs, I am going to find myself overweight on him because of the upside he possesses. The South African looks to be the lowest-owned option of the big four, and I believe he carries as much win equity as whoever you want to compare him to for the week.

Cameron Smith ($10,300) – Cameron Smith is the number one ranked player in my model when looking for that recipe of irons + putting and is also fifth when it comes to scoring on an easy course. The Aussie has some of the most playability across the board in my mind.

Fade – Harris English ($10,100) – I don’t feel as strongly about this as I did before talking to Joel Schreck on our live show, but Harris Enlgish remains off the table completely for me in cash after withdrawing from the CJ Cup when his back flared up a few weeks ago. I can see more of the interest in GPPs because of how he fits statistically in a few areas, but I prefer him on long iron tests than these pitch and putt events.

$9,000 Range

Corey Conners ($9,900) – I guess I am all in on Corey Conners at the RSM. Here is a list of categories where he graded in the top-10 of my model. You will see it is almost across the board in every pertinent measurable, including various others that I didn’t include into my mix but still found worth looking into. I will note that OTT is a few percent more impactful here than an average tour stop. A lot of that is because of the accuracy that comes into play, but we have seen good OTT players like Jason Day and Luke List take varying routes to find success. Conners is second in the field when it comes to strokes gained off the tee over the two-year model that I run, and he grades inside of the top-10 in strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained total, strokes gained at easy courses, venues under 7,200 cards, wind play, Bermuda grass, par-four scoring from 400-450 yards, accuracy, GIRs gained and his combination of putting + iron play. When we look at just that weighted putting total, he turns into one of the biggest climbers when running a model to find how a golfer improves when putting from distance versus an overall array of the stat. The top-five largest improvements I had came from Branden Grace, Russell Henley, Conners, Matt Wallace and Charles Howell III. 

Other Targets: Joaquin Niemann ($9,700), Adam Scott ($9,000) – I tend to believe Russell Henley is a better outright bet than he is DraftKings play at 20%.

$8,000 Range

Chris Kirk ($8,000) – Chris Kirk is one of just four players to grade inside the top-19 for me in all metrics that I looked at in my model. The other three were Corey Conners, Webb Simpson and Russell Henley.

Other Thoughts: Justin Rose ($8,800), Brendon Todd ($8,400) and Seamus Power ($8,200) are where I am most interested in finding additional exposure. I do like Joel Dahmen ($$8,500), but I would prefer for his ownership to drop by a few points for GPPs.

$7,000 Range

Brian Harman $7,800 –  Brain Harman is GPP-only at $7,800, but he is one of the better contrarian values I can find in this group. Three top-32s in his last four at the track. The iron play is worrisome having lost in seven straight, but while the results during that time have been far from good, he isn’t exactly bombing in his performances either. Three have resulted in missed cuts. The rest have ranged from 29th to 75th. He is definitely far from my favorite play because of his lack of safety, but I do think he has top-20 win equity in this field. That means something when nobody looks like they want to use him 

Charles Howell $7,800 – Charles Howell III can be fit into pretty much any build and ranks as one of the five best improvements in this field when given this specific green type.

Matt Wallace $7,600 – Matt Wallace is someone that never grades out well for me but landed fourth in my model when looking at overall rank. The best way to deploy him is likely in cash, but 10-11% is low enough for me to consider in GPPs as well.

Additional Thoughts: JASON DAY ($7,600), Kevin Streelman ($7,600), Branden Grace ($7,400), Emiliano Grillo ($7,400), Lanto Griffin ($7,300), Brian Stuard ($7,200) and Alex Smalley ($7,100) are plays I will be finding myself on in various spots. I didn’t include them with the top group because I just looked at the highest priced choices, but there is value to be found throughout in this range.

$6,000 Range

Michael Thompson ($6,700) – Twelve consecutive rounds of being par or better to go along with four made cuts. Those are huge benefits for a golfer that now draws a venue that suits his game as the ninth-ranked player in this field for accuracy and 21st at courses under 7,200 yards.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Harry Higgs ($6,900), Zach Johnson ($6,900), Camilo Villegas ($6,800), Cameron Davis ($6,800), Andre Putnam ($6,400), Davis Thompson ($6,400)

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