WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 11 Steelers at Chargers 11.21

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Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 11 Steelers at Chargers 11.21.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 47.5, Chargers -6

Something is going to have to give in this Steelers/Chargers game. We have one of the worst defensive fronts in the league versus the worst offensive front. The chargers are dead last in missed tackles, ninth worst in total pressures, sixth worst in sacks, and the worst pair in interior run stoppers in the league. The Steelers are 3rd worst in Run blocking only averaging 3.57 YPC with Najee Harris as their main back (that honestly goes to show how good Najee will be given his production this year) and are only giving Big Ben 2.2 seconds to throw over the length of the season. BUT, even with no time to throw, Ben is on pace for 4,000 passing and 20 TD’s with only 8 picks, and this will be a game where he will likely need to throw at least 40 times in order to keep up. So, this is going to be a very interesting situation tonight. If the Steelers give Ben closer to 2.7 seconds (which is possible given the weakness of the Chargers D) this could very well turn into a shootout.

Captains:

Chalk: Austin Ekeler, $16,200: 16%

I was really expecting to see Herbert as the chalk play but to my surprise all signs point to Ekeler being the big chalk by a wide margin. While I get it to some degree, the Steelers are the 3rd best in DVOA against pass catching running backs and Ekeler has not been getting the volume in the run game to lead me towards playing Ekeler in this contest, especially if he is going to be the highest owned captain on the night.

Pivot: Najee Harris, $17,700: 10%

I know I mentioned just how badly the Steelers have been run blocking for Najee but the Chargers are horrid on the interior and Najee’s usage is massive. If he gets is usual 25-30 targets and touches tonight and LA gives up their usual 4.75 yards per carry Najee has a legitimate 30+ DK point ceiling this evening as around 10% caption ownership. If you are banking that the Steelers O-line can do anything against this Chargers defense Najee needs to be one of your top one or two options at captain. It is also worth noting that Draftkings is so nervous about his ceiling tonight that they pulled all of Najee’s props on this game.

Contrarian #1: Dionte Johnson, $13,200 : 9%

Maybe it is all of the “Big Ben has a noodle arm” people out there, maybe people think the Steelers are terrible, maybe people know how bad the line is and folks just assume it hurts the receivers. No matter what it is people don’t realize that Dionte is is on pace for around 1200 yards and 6 TD’s as the 8th most targeted receiver in the NFL while only playing 8 games. If you translate those numbers to a per game basis he is 6th in the league in targets per game (5th if you don’t count Ridley), 4th in YAC, and 8th in plays of over 30 yards. He also has not scored less than 14.3 DK point in any game this season outside of week 9 where he had 11.7. In a game where the Steelers will presumably need to throw a Juju-less Steelers team will likely lean on Dionte in a big way.

Contrarian #2: Justin Herbert, $16,800 : 7%

While the Steelers are solid against pass catching receivers they are actually a middle of the road defense against receivers ranking 15th in DVOA in the passing game which forces me to take a long look at a 7% captain Herbert. His props imply that he should end up with close to 300 yards through the air and at least 2 td’s and I am inclined think he exceeds both of those in a game that will likely be more of a shootout than people are expecting.

Contrarian #3: Mike Williams, $11,100: 8%

If you have been a member for any length of time this year you know that we have been targeting #1 receivers against the Steelers all season with good success. They have been pretty susceptible to big plays all season allowing 30 explosive plays of at least 20 yards in the passing game on the year. While everyone is going to lean towards Keenan (and I get it) I want to take advantage of the ownership discount and the big play ability of Williams and bank on him catching a couple of long bombs against the Steelers tonight.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 11 Steelers at Chargers 11.21 Flex Plays:

1. Najee Harris
2. Diontae Johnson
3. Justin Herbert
4. Mike Williams
5. Austin Ekeler
6. Keenan Allen
7. Chase Claypool
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Pat Freiermuth
10. James Washington
11. Chargers
12. Steelers
13. Jared Cook
14. Dustin Hopkins
15. Chris Boswell
16. Ray-Ray McCloud III
17. Eric Ebron
18. Donald Parham Jr.
19. Jalen Guyton

Kickers and defenses:

If you are going to try and fit multiple studs into your lineup this evening you can make a case for playing either kicker in tonight’s game, but I would do so sparingly. With players who could potentially have a good performance like James Washington, Pat Freiermuth, and the husk of Eric Ebron expected to play you “should” be able to fit skill players into your lineups that will fit whatever script that you are trying to go with. There is an ever smaller chance that the defenses could have a successful night in DFS as we all know the offensive line struggles of the Steelers and the seemingly random games where Herbert just flat out forgets how to read defenses. With TJ Watt presumably putting pressure on Herbert for the entire game there is an outside chance that he will have one those games so I can not rule that out as a viable game script.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 11 Steelers at Chargers 11.21: helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!