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Wildcard Week of the NFL: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

Well, after 18 weeks grinding out NFL DFS, we have finally arrived at the playoffs. We have 3 days of football coming for us this weekend, starting with two games on Saturday, then three on Sunday and one on Monday. I will be covering the slate from a full Saturday – Monday perspective, but any of my targets are also perfectly viable on the single-day Saturday or Sunday slates. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Getting things started with the second largest favorites on the board on wildcard weekend, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their MVP signal-caller Tom Brady ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD). Brady draws the softest matchup of any quarterback taking the field this weekend, as he will face off against a Philadelphia Eagles team ranked 25th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. While losing Godwin and Antonio Clown will definitely hurt this offense, the Bucs still have one of the highest implied totals of the weekend and are large 8.5 point favorites at home. The salary cap is tight on DraftKings with not much value out there since it is playoff time, so I expect Brady to come in much lower owned than he normally would be in this matchup. If we are able to get savings elsewhere, then Brady is my favorite spend-up option of wildcard weekend.

B. Another QB that I expect to be low-owned despite being in one of the better spots on the full-weekend slate is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD). Carr is my favorite option if we need to save some salary at this position, and it is looking very likely that that is exactly what we will need to do. The Cincinnati Bengals have been lighting things up on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense is mediocre to below average. This unit ranks just 19th in the NFL in total DVOA, and they are even worse in DVOA against the pass, ranking just 24th in the league. The Raiders will likely need to feature a pass-heavy game script, given that they are underdogs in this matchup and they will need to keep pace with the aforementioned Bengals high-flying offense. This is my favorite game to stack and if we go the Carr route over Burrow then we are able to save a substantial amount of salary that will come in handy for our wideouts and RBs.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target to kick off the 2021-2022 NFL postseason is Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD). This is another spot where we can pay up to be contrarian, as few will have the salary flexibility to afford Mahomes this weekend. While the DVOA rankings of 14th and 8th for total and against the pass, respectively, are not exactly telling us that this is an amazing matchup, this is Mahomes we are talking about. The Chiefs are frequently discussed as a team that saves a lot of their playbook for the post season, and we should see Andy Reid and this offense come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday night. Based on the strength of the Chiefs offensive line compared to the strength of the Steelers defensive line, Mahomes has the second lowest sack potential of any QB taking the field this weekend. In other words, he should have roughly the second most amount of time in the pocket, right behind Jalen Hurts. When you give Mahomes time in the pocket, bad things tend to happen to the opposing defense, and I certainly expect that to be the case this weekend.

The Stacks

A. As I mentioned above, the goat has seen his weapons on offense dwindle as we head into the playoffs, but he does still have the best tight end in NFL history and one of the best, if not the best, red zone wide receiver weapons in the entire league. Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans are the two pass-catching options for us here, but Leonard Fournette is also expected to be back and healthy for this game so we can include him in our Tampa Bay stacks as a pass catcher out of the backfield. All four of our options from this team are expensive however, so we will definitely need to find some cheap pieces if we are stacking up the Bucs this weekend. Given that this is the playoffs, game stacks are now much more in play than they were during the regular season, because for the most part we have a competent team on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have Miles Sanders leading their backfield, who I never get excited to roster, and rookie DeVonta Smith still needs a few years before he is a top tier NFL receiver. The top bring-back option here is actually tight end Dallas Goedert, and I am perfectly fine going the two tight end route if we want to include both TEs from this game. Goedert is a great value option and will give us more unique lineup construction compared to the field.

B. Now we arrive at my favorite game stack of the weekend, the Las Vegas Raiders at the Cincinnati Bengals. Josh Jacobs is clearly one of our top two options at RB, along with the RB on the other side of this game Joe Mixon. I find it tough to see a build without one or both of these guys winning much money this weekend. This is the very first game of the playoffs and it should get us rolling with a bang. Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, and a returning Darren Waller highlight our top three options as far as pass catchers go. Waller is yet another strong tight end option, and he is my pick to be the highest scoring TE on the entire weekend. Zay Jones is an excellent source of value, as Carr has been looking his way frequently as opposing offenses zone in on Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow is fine, but may be a bit overpriced with Waller returning and soaking up a good chunk of his targets. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is the clear number one bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also extremely appealing. Trying to pick which one of these guys will have a big game is tough, but I expect at least one, if not two, to have a big ceiling performance in this spot.

C. To close things out on super wildcard weekend, the Chiefs should finally put an end to Ben Roethlisberger’s career. Ben really struggled this season and was statistically the worst first string QB in football. That is tough to do when you have rookies like Trevor Lawrence out there struggling mightily in Jacksonville. The Chiefs have Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning, but I will keep my main exposure to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Many may be scared off of Hill after he was limping and barely played last week, but it sounds like he will be good to go for this game. Kelce is yet another option at a crowded tight end position, but he could easily put up a massive ceiling game against this Pittsburgh defense. Dionte Johnson is a PPR darling, as Ben just peppers him with easy 1 yard passes during the entire game. There are few sweats quite like making the mistake of betting a Dionte Johnson reception prop under. Lastly, Najee Harris is a serviceable option at RB but he is definitely third on my priority list at the position this weekend.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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NFLPremium

Wildcard Week of the NFL: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

Well, after 18 weeks grinding out NFL DFS, we have finally arrived at the playoffs. We have 3 days of football coming for us this weekend, starting with two games on Saturday, then three on Sunday and one on Monday. I will be covering the slate from a full Saturday – Monday perspective, but any of my targets are also perfectly viable on the single-day Saturday or Sunday slates. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Getting things started with the second largest favorites on the board on wildcard weekend, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their MVP signal-caller Tom Brady ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD). Brady draws the softest matchup of any quarterback taking the field this weekend, as he will face off against a Philadelphia Eagles team ranked 25th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. While losing Godwin and Antonio Clown will definitely hurt this offense, the Bucs still have one of the highest implied totals of the weekend and are large 8.5 point favorites at home. The salary cap is tight on DraftKings with not much value out there since it is playoff time, so I expect Brady to come in much lower owned than he normally would be in this matchup. If we are able to get savings elsewhere, then Brady is my favorite spend-up option of wildcard weekend.

B. Another QB that I expect to be low-owned despite being in one of the better spots on the full-weekend slate is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD). Carr is my favorite option if we need to save some salary at this position, and it is looking very likely that that is exactly what we will need to do. The Cincinnati Bengals have been lighting things up on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense is mediocre to below average. This unit ranks just 19th in the NFL in total DVOA, and they are even worse in DVOA against the pass, ranking just 24th in the league. The Raiders will likely need to feature a pass-heavy game script, given that they are underdogs in this matchup and they will need to keep pace with the aforementioned Bengals high-flying offense. This is my favorite game to stack and if we go the Carr route over Burrow then we are able to save a substantial amount of salary that will come in handy for our wideouts and RBs.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target to kick off the 2021-2022 NFL postseason is Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD). This is another spot where we can pay up to be contrarian, as few will have the salary flexibility to afford Mahomes this weekend. While the DVOA rankings of 14th and 8th for total and against the pass, respectively, are not exactly telling us that this is an amazing matchup, this is Mahomes we are talking about. The Chiefs are frequently discussed as a team that saves a lot of their playbook for the post season, and we should see Andy Reid and this offense come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday night. Based on the strength of the Chiefs offensive line compared to the strength of the Steelers defensive line, Mahomes has the second lowest sack potential of any QB taking the field this weekend. In other words, he should have roughly the second most amount of time in the pocket, right behind Jalen Hurts. When you give Mahomes time in the pocket, bad things tend to happen to the opposing defense, and I certainly expect that to be the case this weekend.

The Stacks

A. As I mentioned above, the goat has seen his weapons on offense dwindle as we head into the playoffs, but he does still have the best tight end in NFL history and one of the best, if not the best, red zone wide receiver weapons in the entire league. Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans are the two pass-catching options for us here, but Leonard Fournette is also expected to be back and healthy for this game so we can include him in our Tampa Bay stacks as a pass catcher out of the backfield. All four of our options from this team are expensive however, so we will definitely need to find some cheap pieces if we are stacking up the Bucs this weekend. Given that this is the playoffs, game stacks are now much more in play than they were during the regular season, because for the most part we have a competent team on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have Miles Sanders leading their backfield, who I never get excited to roster, and rookie DeVonta Smith still needs a few years before he is a top tier NFL receiver. The top bring-back option here is actually tight end Dallas Goedert, and I am perfectly fine going the two tight end route if we want to include both TEs from this game. Goedert is a great value option and will give us more unique lineup construction compared to the field.

B. Now we arrive at my favorite game stack of the weekend, the Las Vegas Raiders at the Cincinnati Bengals. Josh Jacobs is clearly one of our top two options at RB, along with the RB on the other side of this game Joe Mixon. I find it tough to see a build without one or both of these guys winning much money this weekend. This is the very first game of the playoffs and it should get us rolling with a bang. Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, and a returning Darren Waller highlight our top three options as far as pass catchers go. Waller is yet another strong tight end option, and he is my pick to be the highest scoring TE on the entire weekend. Zay Jones is an excellent source of value, as Carr has been looking his way frequently as opposing offenses zone in on Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow is fine, but may be a bit overpriced with Waller returning and soaking up a good chunk of his targets. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is the clear number one bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also extremely appealing. Trying to pick which one of these guys will have a big game is tough, but I expect at least one, if not two, to have a big ceiling performance in this spot.

C. To close things out on super wildcard weekend, the Chiefs should finally put an end to Ben Roethlisberger’s career. Ben really struggled this season and was statistically the worst first string QB in football. That is tough to do when you have rookies like Trevor Lawrence out there struggling mightily in Jacksonville. The Chiefs have Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning, but I will keep my main exposure to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Many may be scared off of Hill after he was limping and barely played last week, but it sounds like he will be good to go for this game. Kelce is yet another option at a crowded tight end position, but he could easily put up a massive ceiling game against this Pittsburgh defense. Dionte Johnson is a PPR darling, as Ben just peppers him with easy 1 yard passes during the entire game. There are few sweats quite like making the mistake of betting a Dionte Johnson reception prop under. Lastly, Najee Harris is a serviceable option at RB but he is definitely third on my priority list at the position this weekend.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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NFLPremium

Wildcard Week of the NFL: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

Well, after 18 weeks grinding out NFL DFS, we have finally arrived at the playoffs. We have 3 days of football coming for us this weekend, starting with two games on Saturday, then three on Sunday and one on Monday. I will be covering the slate from a full Saturday – Monday perspective, but any of my targets are also perfectly viable on the single-day Saturday or Sunday slates. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Getting things started with the second largest favorites on the board on wildcard weekend, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their MVP signal-caller Tom Brady ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD). Brady draws the softest matchup of any quarterback taking the field this weekend, as he will face off against a Philadelphia Eagles team ranked 25th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. While losing Godwin and Antonio Clown will definitely hurt this offense, the Bucs still have one of the highest implied totals of the weekend and are large 8.5 point favorites at home. The salary cap is tight on DraftKings with not much value out there since it is playoff time, so I expect Brady to come in much lower owned than he normally would be in this matchup. If we are able to get savings elsewhere, then Brady is my favorite spend-up option of wildcard weekend.

B. Another QB that I expect to be low-owned despite being in one of the better spots on the full-weekend slate is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD). Carr is my favorite option if we need to save some salary at this position, and it is looking very likely that that is exactly what we will need to do. The Cincinnati Bengals have been lighting things up on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense is mediocre to below average. This unit ranks just 19th in the NFL in total DVOA, and they are even worse in DVOA against the pass, ranking just 24th in the league. The Raiders will likely need to feature a pass-heavy game script, given that they are underdogs in this matchup and they will need to keep pace with the aforementioned Bengals high-flying offense. This is my favorite game to stack and if we go the Carr route over Burrow then we are able to save a substantial amount of salary that will come in handy for our wideouts and RBs.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target to kick off the 2021-2022 NFL postseason is Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD). This is another spot where we can pay up to be contrarian, as few will have the salary flexibility to afford Mahomes this weekend. While the DVOA rankings of 14th and 8th for total and against the pass, respectively, are not exactly telling us that this is an amazing matchup, this is Mahomes we are talking about. The Chiefs are frequently discussed as a team that saves a lot of their playbook for the post season, and we should see Andy Reid and this offense come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday night. Based on the strength of the Chiefs offensive line compared to the strength of the Steelers defensive line, Mahomes has the second lowest sack potential of any QB taking the field this weekend. In other words, he should have roughly the second most amount of time in the pocket, right behind Jalen Hurts. When you give Mahomes time in the pocket, bad things tend to happen to the opposing defense, and I certainly expect that to be the case this weekend.

The Stacks

A. As I mentioned above, the goat has seen his weapons on offense dwindle as we head into the playoffs, but he does still have the best tight end in NFL history and one of the best, if not the best, red zone wide receiver weapons in the entire league. Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans are the two pass-catching options for us here, but Leonard Fournette is also expected to be back and healthy for this game so we can include him in our Tampa Bay stacks as a pass catcher out of the backfield. All four of our options from this team are expensive however, so we will definitely need to find some cheap pieces if we are stacking up the Bucs this weekend. Given that this is the playoffs, game stacks are now much more in play than they were during the regular season, because for the most part we have a competent team on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have Miles Sanders leading their backfield, who I never get excited to roster, and rookie DeVonta Smith still needs a few years before he is a top tier NFL receiver. The top bring-back option here is actually tight end Dallas Goedert, and I am perfectly fine going the two tight end route if we want to include both TEs from this game. Goedert is a great value option and will give us more unique lineup construction compared to the field.

B. Now we arrive at my favorite game stack of the weekend, the Las Vegas Raiders at the Cincinnati Bengals. Josh Jacobs is clearly one of our top two options at RB, along with the RB on the other side of this game Joe Mixon. I find it tough to see a build without one or both of these guys winning much money this weekend. This is the very first game of the playoffs and it should get us rolling with a bang. Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, and a returning Darren Waller highlight our top three options as far as pass catchers go. Waller is yet another strong tight end option, and he is my pick to be the highest scoring TE on the entire weekend. Zay Jones is an excellent source of value, as Carr has been looking his way frequently as opposing offenses zone in on Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow is fine, but may be a bit overpriced with Waller returning and soaking up a good chunk of his targets. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is the clear number one bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also extremely appealing. Trying to pick which one of these guys will have a big game is tough, but I expect at least one, if not two, to have a big ceiling performance in this spot.

C. To close things out on super wildcard weekend, the Chiefs should finally put an end to Ben Roethlisberger’s career. Ben really struggled this season and was statistically the worst first string QB in football. That is tough to do when you have rookies like Trevor Lawrence out there struggling mightily in Jacksonville. The Chiefs have Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning, but I will keep my main exposure to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Many may be scared off of Hill after he was limping and barely played last week, but it sounds like he will be good to go for this game. Kelce is yet another option at a crowded tight end position, but he could easily put up a massive ceiling game against this Pittsburgh defense. Dionte Johnson is a PPR darling, as Ben just peppers him with easy 1 yard passes during the entire game. There are few sweats quite like making the mistake of betting a Dionte Johnson reception prop under. Lastly, Najee Harris is a serviceable option at RB but he is definitely third on my priority list at the position this weekend.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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PGAPremium

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Sony Open

brucegray19722@gmail.com
written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Waialae Country Club

7,044 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bermuda

When we look at Waialae Country Club, the property was designed in 1925 by Seth Raynor but did undergo an enhancement by Tom Doak in 2016. The purpose of the improvement was to try and bring back the old-school feel of the property, and I think Doak did that job perfectly. The venue is straightforward in its flat, boring setup, but there are doglegs where golfers will need to work the ball in both directions.

There are 12 par-fours in general. Ten of those stretch between 400-500 yards. The condensed nature from those holes produces 12.8% more second shots from 125-200 yards than average. I noticed a heavy correlation between the PGA Tour’s definition of ball striking and positive results. That combination looks at a mixture of accuracy and distance and then blends in GIR % to derive a total. Most of it is cumulative in how their website looks into the data, but I always make mine slightly more weighted into particular areas that I find relevant over the PGA’s basic construction.

Before we get into the statistical breakdown that I used, the last two things worth noting would be that the wind is the one real defense of the property. We have seen a three-shot difference in production when gusts pick up, and the second area that I found interesting is putting has been 4.3% more impactful to the dispersion of scores than a typical stop.

  • Ball-Striking (25%) – I took an even split of distance and accuracy. I realize accuracy is more pertinent to finding success at Waialae, but golfers can easily club down off the tee. That is what Justin Thomas and Patton Kizzire did during the years they won the title, and it was another scenario where I noticed pushing numbers too far towards accuracy seemed to do a disservice to the model. Maybe you could look at a stat like fairways gained and increase the weight that way, but I still don’t love it because there are so many courses some of your bombers nosedive their totals throughout the year. I then took the average of that total driving number and weighed it in with GIR percentage in a 65/35 split towards GIR.
  • Pertinent Proximity Ranges (10%) – Sixty-seven percent of irons come between 125-200 yards. I am marginally lower on approach play this week than most in the industry, but there are roundabout ways to get unique. I think GIR % is one. Breaking it down into this specific distance is another. And the reason we receive 67% of irons from this relatively basic zone is because of what I mentioned earlier of there being 10 par-fours between 400-500 yards. There are a lot of landing areas that will be similar for all players in the field
  • Weighted Par-Four (17.5%) – It is a pretty basic split there of 34% overall par-four average and then 33% each on 400-450 and 450-500. 
  • Easy Scoring Courses Under 7,200 Yards (17.5%) – Birdie makers that can find success at the venue. It is as simple as that.
  • Mixture of Strokes Gained Total on Bermuda + Strokes Gained Putting on Bermuda (20%) – That is my way of looking into Bermuda as a whole and gradually inserting putting into the mix. Everyone knows that I don’t love putting numbers, but we can’t ignore it here. Putting has been 4.3% more impactful to the dispersion of scores than an average stop. Bermuda putting is one of the ways to make it more relevant to Waialae. 
  • Birdie or Better Percentage (10%) – That is an extension of scoring to go along with how golfers perform at easy courses that are shorter. 

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Webb Simpson ($10,500) – We are going to have to be cognizant of collective ownership amongst our six golfers. It is going to be nearly impossible to bypass the chalk in general, so it will be a lineup-by-lineup decision for me when I make builds. Webb Simpson is the number overall player in my model. Unfortunately, he is also number one in ownership. You will have to make a decision when it comes to how much exposure you want, but nobody produces yearly at the same tracks in the fashion of Webb.

Sungjae Im ($10.300) – The ownership is where it should be for the week. The price tag is fair. Those aren’t exactly ringing endorsements for a golfer that is going to far exceed his projection, but I do think he is the second-best route on this board. Im’s irons have turned around after a cold stretch in the middle of 2021, and we have seen him average 2.25 over his last four starts with that approach game.

Other Consideration – Cameron Smith ($11,200) – Either Cameron Smith or Hideki Matsuyama will be your best leverage route to consider. I don’t love Hideki’s upside because of his inability to make putts at a birdie fest, but we know Smith is a winner.

$9,000 Range

Kevin Na ($9,900) – Joel and I mentioned this about Kevin Na on our show, but it bears repeating. While Kevin Na is technically overpriced as one of the big boys in this field at $9,900, the leverage he provides at roughly 10 percent more than makes up for the price tag. You want players you like to be higher priced because it creates more playability when others are down on them.

Corey Conners ($9,600) – Corey Conners should have likely been in the $10,000 zone. I wish he would have been for all the reasons I just mentioned about Kevin Na, but there is a ton to love about the Canadian. Conners ranks first in my model for ball-striking and has gained nearly twice as many strokes on these greens versus any other surface in the world. If the putter remains hot at the track, the sky is the limit.

Other Targets: Abraham Ancer (GPPs)

$8,000 Range

Billy Horschel ($8,700) – Billy Horschel isn’t going to be for everyone, and I am okay with that. The Florida product ranks 15th at easy courses under 7,200 yards and ninth in my mixture of Bermuda scoring. Sub-10 percent is a great number.

Matt Jones ($8,400) – I like Matt Jones to keep the train rolling in Hawaii. Let’s see where the ownership comes in for the week, but if he can hover outside of the top-15 projection totals on the board, the safety Jones brings allows us to remove some of the other qualities we would like to see in his statistical makeup.

Charles Howell III ($8,000) – Charles Howell IIII looks to be one of the better cash-game values on the board at $8,000. I am willing to give him a look in GPPs if the ownership remains sub-15 percent, and his course history has been magnificent. He hasn’t missed a cut during his career in 19 tries. He has provided 15 top-30s, with nine of those landing inside the top eight.

Other Thoughts: Kevin Kisner is playable at $8,900

$7,000 Range

Si Woo Kim ($7,700) – I have Si Woo Kim inside the top-10 in outright win equity. He places ninth at easy courses under 7,200 yards. There is always going to be combustibility that he falters, but he does rank inside of the top-60 in every category I ran. We know that when he gets into contention that he can win, and 6-7 percent is way too low for his popularity on DraftKings. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see him on the first page of the leaderboard when all is said and done.

Additional Thoughts: I am going to mix-and-match options, but my next two favorite targets would be Keegan Bradley ($7,400) and Stewart Cink ($7,200)

$6,000 Range

Nick Hardy ($6,600) – Fourteenth here last year. A great iron player that hits a ton of greens in regulation. He will need to keep the ball in the fairway, but my numbers love him.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Max McGreevy $6,900, Michael Thompson $6,900, Harry Higgs $6,900, Chan Kim $6,300, Andrew Novak $6,300

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

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NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all-in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 48, Chargers: -4.5

You could not ask for a much better matchup for a week 18 showdown contest than this one. A “win and in” scenario between the Chargers and Raiders in primetime. The Chargers when “on” do everything well so you are going to have to mix and match throughout multiple builds to get the correct combination of players on LA’s side of the ball and lean heavily on script to make your builds. The Raiders however might be the definition of the Mendoza line in the NFL. They are room temperature water and as boring as it gets. But, there are some injury questions that could either free up value or create opportunities on the Vegas side. This should be a close one so you are going to need to play multiple lineups in this game more than you normally would so try to avoid the single bullet approach, lower your buy-in amount and increase your contest volume.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9 Captains:

Chalk: Austin Ekeler, $17,400: 18-20%

The clear-cut chalk option on the evening is Austin Ekeler coming in at almost 20% in our projections and for good reason. Ekeler is about as close to game script proof as you can get and at this point in the season, I have no need to explain to you just how high his upside can be. If you choose to plant your flag on Ekeler as your main captain or if you intend on only entering one lineup just be sure to leave more salary than you usually would on the table or fade another player or two in your lineup that you know will be a popular option in order to increase your chances of having a unique build that will not get split with 100 of your closest friends in the even you end up on top.

Pivot: Justin Herbert, $17,100: 11-13%

With Herbert’s price being so close to Ekelers I think that most people will simply opt to go a few hundred more dollars at captain and Herbert will be a fair bit lower in ownership than Ekeler so I like the idea of using him as a pivot. He has been all over the place this season with 5 games scoring 30 or more DK points and 6 games under 20. If you are running Juston out as your captain you are clearly banking on him having a ceiling game so be mindful of leaning heavily on the Chargers passing game for your flex pieces so that you can get the most out of your build.

Contrarian #1: Mike Williams, $10,800: 5-7%

If you were to look at the little red 3 next to the Chargers receivers you would be forgiven for wanting to shy away from the Chargers receivers just a bit tonight. But if you dig just a little deeper you will see that the Raiders are near the bottom of the league against #2 receivers and are bottom 8 in the league against the deep ball. Mike has been inconsistent, to say the least after a hot start but that has more to do with Herbert’s inconsistent play and injuries than anything else. If good Herbert makes an appearance in this do-or-die scenario the benefactor will most likely be Williams and his sub 8% ownership.

Contrarian #2: Darren Waller, $13,800: 5-7%

It would be understandable if you did not realize this but it has been 13 games since Waller last found the endzone. Waller has been dealing with injuries for most of the season and has missed the last 5 games dealing with a knee injury. We need to wait and confirm the active status and he is almost assuredly less than 100% so be mindful of that. If he does go, the Chargers are the worst team in the NFL against tight ends and he will be looking at likely double-digit targets in this scenario. This has the potential to completely flame out, so be cautious and do not go overweight on him. But even a 75% Waller can have a huge day at lower than usual ownership and break this slate wide open.

Contrarian #3: Josh Jacobs, $11,700: 11-13%

Another prime spot against a Chargers weakness and yet another injury that will likely drive ownership down just enough to make Jacobs a viable captain play. The Chargers have had the worst batch of interior run stoppers all season and have been getting gashed by virtually any reasonably good running back all season when the script allows it. This is another one of those high-risk/high-reward situations and if you are using Jacobs at captain it is likely due to the Chargers passing attack not clicking on all cylinders and or this game staying close so be sure to build appropriately.

Bonus Play: Hunter Renfrow (6-8%)deserves an honorable mention here simply because if Waller struggles or reaggravates his injury Renfrow becomes the de facto #1 option for the Raiders and will be useful in almost every game scenario.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9 Flex plays:

  1. Austin Ekeler
  2. Justin Herbert
  3. Keenan Allen
  4. Derek Carr
  5. Darren Waller
  6. Hunter Renfrow
  7. Josh Jacobs
  8. Mike Williams
  9. Zay Jones
  10. Nathan Peterman
  11. Jared Cook
  12. Justin Jackson
  13. Jalen Guyton
  14. Joshua Palmer
  15. Chargers
  16. Dustin Hopkins
  17. Daniel Carlson
  18. Raiders
  19. Foster Moreau
  20. Bryan Edwards
  21. DeSean Jackson
  22. Peyton Barber
  23. Tre’ McKitty
  24. Stephen Anderson
  25. Jalen Richard
  26. Joshua Kelley

Kickers and defenses:

With a 48 point total and a pretty low spread, I am less inclined to use either of the defenses in this contest but I do not mind occasionally putting the Raiders in a flex spot or two if you are expecting Herbert to have one of his inconsistent games where he struggles with accuracy and maybe throws a pick or two. For the same reason (close spread) and am more inclined to use the kickers in the flex as a final piece. The prices for both are very reasonable and kicking is likely going to be the reason either team wins or losses in a divisional contest like this. Coaches tend to tighten up and play more conservatively in scenarios where a single unneeded risk will lead to a loss and getting knocked out of the playoffs.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 18 Chargers at Raiders 1.9 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2022 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFLPremium

Week 18 of the NFL: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

For the first time in history we are entering week 18 of the NFL. Typically, teams without a bye are kicking off the playoffs at this point, but we still have one more regular season week to determine the final seeding positions. Motivation and which teams are actually playing their starters the full allotment of minutes will be the name of the game, so I will be focusing on those two aspects as I select my DFS plays this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Kicking things off with a team that does have motivation, although definitely a lower level than some teams on the main slate, we have the Buffalo Bills and their signal caller Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen’s price remained flat on Fanduel, while he was bumped up just $100 of salary cap on DK. Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, which is not somewhere that I believe I have gone the entire season up to this point. This is the week to do it though, because we are expected to have a plethora of value at our finger tips and the Bills are facing their hopeless division-mates, the New York Jets. As we know by this point in the season, the Jets are the easiest matchup in the entire NFL, ranking dead last in DVOA, 26th in DVOA against the pass, and dead last in DVOA against the run. The Bills need to win to hold off the Patriots from winning the AFC East for the millionth time, and I expect them to treat this as a playoff tune up and really take it to the Jets. While the Bucs had a strange letdown last week and really should have lost to this team, the Bills are not expected to do the same as they are the largest favorites on the board with a gigantic -16.5 betting line.

B. If, for some reason, we find ourselves needing to save some salary off of the most expensive QB option, then look no further than Taysom Hill ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD). The Saints not only have playoff motivation on their side, they are also facing off against an awful team in the Atlanta Falcons that has a 0% chance of sniffing the playoffs. While this is not exactly promising from a game-stack perspective, this is the quarterback section and Taysom is in a smash spot. The Falcons have one of the worst defensive units in the NFL, ranking just 29th in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, and 28th in DVOA against the run. We all know the floor that Hill provides us due to his rushing upside, and the ceiling is also extremely high at this price point in this matchup. This Falcons defensive line ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate in the entire NFL, so Hill should have ample time in the pocket when he is not running wild all over this Falcons squad.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the 2021-2022 NFL regular season is Kyler Murray ($7,400 DK / $8,400 FD). Murray is only the fourth highest-priced QB over on DraftKings, while he is the second highest on FanDuel, so we are getting a better deal over on DK in comparison to other players at his position. The Cardinals check in on week 18 with the third highest implied team total on the entire main slate behind only the two gargantuan favorites, the Bills and Colts. In terms of motivation, the Cardinals will make the playoffs but depending on the result of their game and one or two others, their seed can move around quite a bit. It is always tricky determining how much seeding matters to a team vs. staying healthy, but I expect the Cardinals to be extremely hungry for a win given how poorly they have finished out the regular season. Seattle ranks just 25th in DVOA, although they do rank 8th in DVOA against the pass. Kyler is not a normal quarterback that is as susceptible to how well a team defends the QB position, and we are getting him at a great discount given the team’s recent struggles.

The Stacks

A. We had our first sighting of a player on the Jets that we can use as a bring-back last week, as Braxton Berrios went off as the chalky cheap wide receiver option of the week on DraftKings. However, I want to start with the team that I will have more exposure to in this game as usual, which is the Buffalo Bills. As much as it pains me to say as a Patriots fan, the Bills will almost definitely steamroll the Jets this week. The Jets essentially had their last hurrah last week as they nearly beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that blown lead essentially sums up their season. Stefon Diggs is one of the top five players I have heard around the industry this week as someone to watch in terms of incentives. He is very close to hitting a few bonuses, so I am sure that he will be letting his quarterback know that he needs to see the ball a few extra times. Sanders, Beasley, and Davis are all essentially interchangeable as second or third receiving options for our Buffalo stacks as well. The DFS sites were quick to bump up the pricing on Berrios as he was both highly owned and a strong performer, which is a recipe for the algorithms to hike up salary rapidly. Due to recency bias, I expect him to be extremely popular yet again this week which is why I will be fully fading him, along with the rest of this awful Jets team, for tournaments.

B. Moving on to the New Orleans Saints, we have an amazing pivot off of the likely chalky Berrios, in Marquez Callaway. Callaway is only $100 more salary than Berrios on DK, and I expect him to carry a fraction of the ownership. Outside of MC however, I am not interested in any of these other pass-catchers as Taysom Hill is not really the type of quarterback that will be helping more than one subpar wideout achieve a ceiling game that will help us win GPPs. Of course the top option to pair with Taysom is Alvin Kamara, and given Hill’s rushing ability and propensity to vulture touchdowns from his RB’s, I expect this combo to be relatively contrarian. As the Falcons play out the final game of yet another disappointing and lost season, they can at least hang their hat on the resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson. Although Patterson fell off a cliff down the stretch, he had the best season of his career. With that said, I do not have much interest in him or Russel Gage in this game. My sole interest here is on another incentive-driven pass-catcher, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. While Pitts has massively underwhelmed relative to his expectations, catching only one touchdown all season, he has been able to rack up yards and catches in bunches. He is close to the rookie tight end receiving record which I believe is reason enough to use him as a bring-back option at the notoriously ugly tight end position on DFS sites.

C. To wrap up the regular season, we have the Arizona Cardinals facing off against the Seattle Seahawks in the desert as one of the final games on Sunday before primetime. James Conner is once again a question mark, and if he is unable to suit up, then I will start every Kyler Murray lineup with Chase Edmonds. Christian Kirk has yet to really take advantage of the lack of D-Hop in this lineup, and that has been mostly due to this team and Kyler struggling as a whole. He is a fine option to pair with Kyler for GPPs, as is A.J. Green. The top pass catching option here though is Zach Ertz, which surprises me to type as much as it surprises you to read. As I mentioned above, the tight end position has been truly brutal this year, and Ertz is getting the targets from Kyler that allow him to easily hit and exceed his value at this current price point. We have two ideal bring-back options on the other side of the ball, as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should see plenty of targets given that we should expect Russ to cook for potentially the final time with the Seahawks. Rashaad Penny has been breaking out down the stretch of the regular season as well, and I am fine going to him, although he is easily the third best option from Seattle for us given that Arizona ranks 5th in DVOA against the run.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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NFLPremium

Week 18 of the NFL: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

For the first time in history we are entering week 18 of the NFL. Typically, teams without a bye are kicking off the playoffs at this point, but we still have one more regular season week to determine the final seeding positions. Motivation and which teams are actually playing their starters the full allotment of minutes will be the name of the game, so I will be focusing on those two aspects as I select my DFS plays this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Kicking things off with a team that does have motivation, although definitely a lower level than some teams on the main slate, we have the Buffalo Bills and their signal caller Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen’s price remained flat on Fanduel, while he was bumped up just $100 of salary cap on DK. Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, which is not somewhere that I believe I have gone the entire season up to this point. This is the week to do it though, because we are expected to have a plethora of value at our finger tips and the Bills are facing their hopeless division-mates, the New York Jets. As we know by this point in the season, the Jets are the easiest matchup in the entire NFL, ranking dead last in DVOA, 26th in DVOA against the pass, and dead last in DVOA against the run. The Bills need to win to hold off the Patriots from winning the AFC East for the millionth time, and I expect them to treat this as a playoff tune up and really take it to the Jets. While the Bucs had a strange letdown last week and really should have lost to this team, the Bills are not expected to do the same as they are the largest favorites on the board with a gigantic -16.5 betting line.

B. If, for some reason, we find ourselves needing to save some salary off of the most expensive QB option, then look no further than Taysom Hill ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD). The Saints not only have playoff motivation on their side, they are also facing off against an awful team in the Atlanta Falcons that has a 0% chance of sniffing the playoffs. While this is not exactly promising from a game-stack perspective, this is the quarterback section and Taysom is in a smash spot. The Falcons have one of the worst defensive units in the NFL, ranking just 29th in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, and 28th in DVOA against the run. We all know the floor that Hill provides us due to his rushing upside, and the ceiling is also extremely high at this price point in this matchup. This Falcons defensive line ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate in the entire NFL, so Hill should have ample time in the pocket when he is not running wild all over this Falcons squad.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the 2021-2022 NFL regular season is Kyler Murray ($7,400 DK / $8,400 FD). Murray is only the fourth highest-priced QB over on DraftKings, while he is the second highest on FanDuel, so we are getting a better deal over on DK in comparison to other players at his position. The Cardinals check in on week 18 with the third highest implied team total on the entire main slate behind only the two gargantuan favorites, the Bills and Colts. In terms of motivation, the Cardinals will make the playoffs but depending on the result of their game and one or two others, their seed can move around quite a bit. It is always tricky determining how much seeding matters to a team vs. staying healthy, but I expect the Cardinals to be extremely hungry for a win given how poorly they have finished out the regular season. Seattle ranks just 25th in DVOA, although they do rank 8th in DVOA against the pass. Kyler is not a normal quarterback that is as susceptible to how well a team defends the QB position, and we are getting him at a great discount given the team’s recent struggles.

The Stacks

A. We had our first sighting of a player on the Jets that we can use as a bring-back last week, as Braxton Berrios went off as the chalky cheap wide receiver option of the week on DraftKings. However, I want to start with the team that I will have more exposure to in this game as usual, which is the Buffalo Bills. As much as it pains me to say as a Patriots fan, the Bills will almost definitely steamroll the Jets this week. The Jets essentially had their last hurrah last week as they nearly beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that blown lead essentially sums up their season. Stefon Diggs is one of the top five players I have heard around the industry this week as someone to watch in terms of incentives. He is very close to hitting a few bonuses, so I am sure that he will be letting his quarterback know that he needs to see the ball a few extra times. Sanders, Beasley, and Davis are all essentially interchangeable as second or third receiving options for our Buffalo stacks as well. The DFS sites were quick to bump up the pricing on Berrios as he was both highly owned and a strong performer, which is a recipe for the algorithms to hike up salary rapidly. Due to recency bias, I expect him to be extremely popular yet again this week which is why I will be fully fading him, along with the rest of this awful Jets team, for tournaments.

B. Moving on to the New Orleans Saints, we have an amazing pivot off of the likely chalky Berrios, in Marquez Callaway. Callaway is only $100 more salary than Berrios on DK, and I expect him to carry a fraction of the ownership. Outside of MC however, I am not interested in any of these other pass-catchers as Taysom Hill is not really the type of quarterback that will be helping more than one subpar wideout achieve a ceiling game that will help us win GPPs. Of course the top option to pair with Taysom is Alvin Kamara, and given Hill’s rushing ability and propensity to vulture touchdowns from his RB’s, I expect this combo to be relatively contrarian. As the Falcons play out the final game of yet another disappointing and lost season, they can at least hang their hat on the resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson. Although Patterson fell off a cliff down the stretch, he had the best season of his career. With that said, I do not have much interest in him or Russel Gage in this game. My sole interest here is on another incentive-driven pass-catcher, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. While Pitts has massively underwhelmed relative to his expectations, catching only one touchdown all season, he has been able to rack up yards and catches in bunches. He is close to the rookie tight end receiving record which I believe is reason enough to use him as a bring-back option at the notoriously ugly tight end position on DFS sites.

C. To wrap up the regular season, we have the Arizona Cardinals facing off against the Seattle Seahawks in the desert as one of the final games on Sunday before primetime. James Conner is once again a question mark, and if he is unable to suit up, then I will start every Kyler Murray lineup with Chase Edmonds. Christian Kirk has yet to really take advantage of the lack of D-Hop in this lineup, and that has been mostly due to this team and Kyler struggling as a whole. He is a fine option to pair with Kyler for GPPs, as is A.J. Green. The top pass catching option here though is Zach Ertz, which surprises me to type as much as it surprises you to read. As I mentioned above, the tight end position has been truly brutal this year, and Ertz is getting the targets from Kyler that allow him to easily hit and exceed his value at this current price point. We have two ideal bring-back options on the other side of the ball, as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should see plenty of targets given that we should expect Russ to cook for potentially the final time with the Seahawks. Rashaad Penny has been breaking out down the stretch of the regular season as well, and I am fine going to him, although he is easily the third best option from Seattle for us given that Arizona ranks 5th in DVOA against the run.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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NFLPremium

Week 18 of the NFL: Top DFS QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda
written by Adam Zibuda

For the first time in history we are entering week 18 of the NFL. Typically, teams without a bye are kicking off the playoffs at this point, but we still have one more regular season week to determine the final seeding positions. Motivation and which teams are actually playing their starters the full allotment of minutes will be the name of the game, so I will be focusing on those two aspects as I select my DFS plays this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Kicking things off with a team that does have motivation, although definitely a lower level than some teams on the main slate, we have the Buffalo Bills and their signal caller Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen’s price remained flat on Fanduel, while he was bumped up just $100 of salary cap on DK. Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, which is not somewhere that I believe I have gone the entire season up to this point. This is the week to do it though, because we are expected to have a plethora of value at our finger tips and the Bills are facing their hopeless division-mates, the New York Jets. As we know by this point in the season, the Jets are the easiest matchup in the entire NFL, ranking dead last in DVOA, 26th in DVOA against the pass, and dead last in DVOA against the run. The Bills need to win to hold off the Patriots from winning the AFC East for the millionth time, and I expect them to treat this as a playoff tune up and really take it to the Jets. While the Bucs had a strange letdown last week and really should have lost to this team, the Bills are not expected to do the same as they are the largest favorites on the board with a gigantic -16.5 betting line.

B. If, for some reason, we find ourselves needing to save some salary off of the most expensive QB option, then look no further than Taysom Hill ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD). The Saints not only have playoff motivation on their side, they are also facing off against an awful team in the Atlanta Falcons that has a 0% chance of sniffing the playoffs. While this is not exactly promising from a game-stack perspective, this is the quarterback section and Taysom is in a smash spot. The Falcons have one of the worst defensive units in the NFL, ranking just 29th in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, and 28th in DVOA against the run. We all know the floor that Hill provides us due to his rushing upside, and the ceiling is also extremely high at this price point in this matchup. This Falcons defensive line ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate in the entire NFL, so Hill should have ample time in the pocket when he is not running wild all over this Falcons squad.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the 2021-2022 NFL regular season is Kyler Murray ($7,400 DK / $8,400 FD). Murray is only the fourth highest-priced QB over on DraftKings, while he is the second highest on FanDuel, so we are getting a better deal over on DK in comparison to other players at his position. The Cardinals check in on week 18 with the third highest implied team total on the entire main slate behind only the two gargantuan favorites, the Bills and Colts. In terms of motivation, the Cardinals will make the playoffs but depending on the result of their game and one or two others, their seed can move around quite a bit. It is always tricky determining how much seeding matters to a team vs. staying healthy, but I expect the Cardinals to be extremely hungry for a win given how poorly they have finished out the regular season. Seattle ranks just 25th in DVOA, although they do rank 8th in DVOA against the pass. Kyler is not a normal quarterback that is as susceptible to how well a team defends the QB position, and we are getting him at a great discount given the team’s recent struggles.

The Stacks

A. We had our first sighting of a player on the Jets that we can use as a bring-back last week, as Braxton Berrios went off as the chalky cheap wide receiver option of the week on DraftKings. However, I want to start with the team that I will have more exposure to in this game as usual, which is the Buffalo Bills. As much as it pains me to say as a Patriots fan, the Bills will almost definitely steamroll the Jets this week. The Jets essentially had their last hurrah last week as they nearly beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that blown lead essentially sums up their season. Stefon Diggs is one of the top five players I have heard around the industry this week as someone to watch in terms of incentives. He is very close to hitting a few bonuses, so I am sure that he will be letting his quarterback know that he needs to see the ball a few extra times. Sanders, Beasley, and Davis are all essentially interchangeable as second or third receiving options for our Buffalo stacks as well. The DFS sites were quick to bump up the pricing on Berrios as he was both highly owned and a strong performer, which is a recipe for the algorithms to hike up salary rapidly. Due to recency bias, I expect him to be extremely popular yet again this week which is why I will be fully fading him, along with the rest of this awful Jets team, for tournaments.

B. Moving on to the New Orleans Saints, we have an amazing pivot off of the likely chalky Berrios, in Marquez Callaway. Callaway is only $100 more salary than Berrios on DK, and I expect him to carry a fraction of the ownership. Outside of MC however, I am not interested in any of these other pass-catchers as Taysom Hill is not really the type of quarterback that will be helping more than one subpar wideout achieve a ceiling game that will help us win GPPs. Of course the top option to pair with Taysom is Alvin Kamara, and given Hill’s rushing ability and propensity to vulture touchdowns from his RB’s, I expect this combo to be relatively contrarian. As the Falcons play out the final game of yet another disappointing and lost season, they can at least hang their hat on the resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson. Although Patterson fell off a cliff down the stretch, he had the best season of his career. With that said, I do not have much interest in him or Russel Gage in this game. My sole interest here is on another incentive-driven pass-catcher, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. While Pitts has massively underwhelmed relative to his expectations, catching only one touchdown all season, he has been able to rack up yards and catches in bunches. He is close to the rookie tight end receiving record which I believe is reason enough to use him as a bring-back option at the notoriously ugly tight end position on DFS sites.

C. To wrap up the regular season, we have the Arizona Cardinals facing off against the Seattle Seahawks in the desert as one of the final games on Sunday before primetime. James Conner is once again a question mark, and if he is unable to suit up, then I will start every Kyler Murray lineup with Chase Edmonds. Christian Kirk has yet to really take advantage of the lack of D-Hop in this lineup, and that has been mostly due to this team and Kyler struggling as a whole. He is a fine option to pair with Kyler for GPPs, as is A.J. Green. The top pass catching option here though is Zach Ertz, which surprises me to type as much as it surprises you to read. As I mentioned above, the tight end position has been truly brutal this year, and Ertz is getting the targets from Kyler that allow him to easily hit and exceed his value at this current price point. We have two ideal bring-back options on the other side of the ball, as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should see plenty of targets given that we should expect Russ to cook for potentially the final time with the Seahawks. Rashaad Penny has been breaking out down the stretch of the regular season as well, and I am fine going to him, although he is easily the third best option from Seattle for us given that Arizona ranks 5th in DVOA against the run.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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PGA

PGA Tour 2022 Power Rankings

Seth Howery
written by Seth Howery

The 2020-2021 PGA Tour season was one for the ages. It contained 6 major tournaments and the strength of the field week in and week out was at an all-time high.  Whether it was comeback wins (or 54 holes lead meltdowns), first-time champs, or the young stars bursting onto the scene, this season was truly incredible, and it showed everyone why the sport of golf is on the upswing. Today, we will take a look at my top 50 power rankings players for the beginning of the 2022 calendar year.

  1. Jon Rahm

“Rambo” was without a doubt the best player in the world last year and there is no indication that he is slowing down. He finished inside the top 10 in 15 of his 22 starts. He was clearly the most consistent golfer on the planet. The 27-year-old Spaniard has one of the most complete games in all of golf.  Rahm led the PGA Tour in earnings where he racked up $7,705,933 in those 22 events. Look for Rahm to continue his stellar ball-striking in 2022. He should continue to be inside the top 10 in strokes gained off the tee and in strokes gained approach.

2. Collin Morikawa

The 24-year-old phenom has so much potential and the results in 2020-2021 matched his talent. He grabbed two out of the 6 majors, a WGC win and he was the first American to win the Race to Dubai. He is currently ranked as the 2nd golfer in the world, but he came very close to grabbing first place in the Bahamas during the swing season. Morikawa is, by a pretty significant margin, the best iron player in the world, and frankly, the best we have seen since a prime Tiger Woods. His marvelous tee-to-green play makes him a contender at pretty much all the courses in the world.

3. Rory McIlroy

The former number one ranked golfer struggled to gain his form at the start of 2021. But it sure looks like he found it toward the end of the calendar year, grabbing a title at the Wells Fargo Championship and at the CJ Cup. His off-the-tee game is still second to none, and he regained some confidence with the flat stick. That is the lethal combo needed in order to re-establish himself as the best player in the world.

4. Justin Thomas

Here is another guy that had a very tumultuous past year. It was unfortunately marked by the passing away of his grandfather and on-course slur that ended up costing him a few sponsors. JT bounced back beautifully from those events and had one of the most amazing performances of the year on Saturday and Sunday at the Players Championship. He was still a top 5 iron/wedge player in the world and he continues to add some distance with the driver. If he can gain a little more consistency with the putter he will truly be a force to be reckoned with. He appeared on the “No laying up” podcast a couple of weeks ago and he sounded more motivated than I have ever heard him to grab the second major of his career.

5. Bryson DeChambeau

I think it is now time to admit that the Bryson “experience” is straight-up working. When Covid struck and we got into a lockdown, Bryson grinded, added over 20 pounds of muscle and added another 20 mph of clubhead speed. The result: he gained 1.16 strokes off-the-tee last year. That is of course the best on Tour by a pretty significant margin. His driver is a tremendous weapon that can bring him to victory at a lot of different courses. The Texas native sure needs to work on his wedge game because he ranks outside the top 130 on approaches from 50 to 125 yards.

6. Patrick Cantlay

“Patty Ice” had a tremendous season last year. He won a tour high four times and was crowned the Fed-Ex Cup champion. His game is extremely complete, and he can have success at pretty much any type of course. However, his most important skill is his ability to close out tournaments. The nickname “Patty Ice” is very realistic because this dude has some nerves of steel and never seems fazed.  

7. Viktor Hovland

Some of you might raise an eyebrow when you see him ranked higher than some of the great golfers below. Viktor is such a great golfer that one could make a case he could be ranked even higher. He possesses the rare ability to drive the ball very far and straight, he can hit each of his irons on a rope and he can catch fire with his putter. Viktor made a huge step during the 2021-2022 and look for him to continue his rise to the top because the sky is truly the limit for him.

8. Jordan Speith

The Jordan Spieth Mania was back last year and the golf world could not be more thrilled about it. He finally got back to the winner’s circle in his home state at The Valero Texas Open. Spieth still had the same magic on and around the green that he always had, but the true difference this year was his ball striking. He went from being one of the worst drivers of the ball to a neutral driver, which is great for him. In addition, his iron play ranked inside the top 20 in the world. Spieth is poised for a great year, and he should fare extremely well in the majors (and in these rankings) this year because they pretty much all suit his game.

9. Sam Burns

Here is another extremely promising young star that we have in the game of golf. Burns is such a talented player. He has a rare ability that is pretty much second to none to catch lightning in a bottle and go completely nuclear during a round of golf. He has the most rounds under 64 this year. When Burns is on, he is extremely on. From a betting standpoint, it is extremely valuable because a guy like him can do wonders in showdown and in the live outright betting as well.

10. Dustin Johnson

For the past 10 years or so, DJ has always been inside the top 5 in these types of rankings. This year is different because Dustin really looked out of sorts. Of course, we need to pump the brakes on the DJ slander because he has shown in the past that he can flip a switch in a heartbeat. If there is one thing that my years of being a golf handicapper have shown me, it is that the guys of this caliber don’t need a lot to go from a couple of bad results to a dominant win. Dustin can definitely go back to the top of the golf world and these rankings but for now, he has not shown us why he should be ranked higher on my list.

11. Xander Schauffele

Xander has a reputation for being an amazing player that has not lived up to his potential when it comes to winning PGA golf tournaments. I say PGA because his only win in the past 2 years has come at the Tokyo Olympics. Although it was a great moment for him and for the US, you can debate the strength of the field (news flash: it wasn’t a great field) . Xander ranked very highly in my model when it comes to par 4 scoring, Tee-to-green, and scoring average. He also is a very reliable putter. Nonetheless, we have come to a point where he needs to rack up these wins. Hopefully, this is the year for him.

12. Louis Oosthuizen

The South African had one of the best years of his career. He was able to pair up his great ability to be a top 20 ball-striker in the world with the fact that he was the best putter on the PGA Tour last year per the strokes gained metrics. He actually didn’t have his best year tee-to-green. If he can improve a little in that department, and if he keeps putting well, Louis could finally get back to the winner’s circle. Since this is a President’s Cup year, he will have the added pressure of, most likely, being the top player on his team.

13. Brooks Koepka

The 4-time major winner had a rocky year. He was nursing a knee injury for a good part of it. The recent news coming from him and his camp are that the knee is no longer an issue and he can concentrate on his practice and his play on the course. This should help a lot. The reason that Brooks is not higher on this list is that he often seems unmotivated in the smaller events, and he tends to show up only for 6 or 7 tournaments per year. Maybe the beef with Bryson could be a motivating factor for Koepka. When it comes to the numbers, they are not great. However, betting on Brooks is often a gut feeling and it is worth mentioning that Koepka made a change in his bag when he teamed up with Srixon in November 2021.

14. Tony Finau

Here is another great talent that doesn’t win as often as he should, or as he is expected by the fans. Finau is one of the few guys that pops into our minds when we think of guys that can hit the ball a long way. He can also dial in his approach and hit a lot of greens. However, the strongest part of his game is actually his around-the-green play. He ranked 15th on Tour last year. Tony should be able to contend in a lot of tournaments this year and he, in my opinion, is capable of closing out some leads.

15. Hideki Matsuyama

The current Green Jacket holder had the best year of his career. He not only won the biggest tournament of the sport, but he also won the Zozo Championship in front of his fans in Japan. Hideki is definitely a hero in his home country. He can hit the golf ball with the best of them. His slow backswing is extremely effective as he ranked inside the top 15 in the tee-to-green metric. When you look at his ball striking numbers, you wonder why he doesn’t win even more than he does. It is because the putter has been holding him back. Matsuyama needs to find a way to become more effective with the most important club in the bag.

16. Scottie Scheffler

The kid from Dallas is incredible and he has the complete game that so many seek.  Out of the guys that drive it over 300 yards on average, he was the most accurate. He also has some amazing hands around the greens, and he can catch fire with the flat stick. Scottie is the first player on this list that has yet to make his way into the winner’s circle. That fact should not stay true for a long time as he is bound to win at some point. Although it may not be that bold, I am speaking it into existence, Scottie will get his first win before the end of the season. He finished inside the top 20 in all 4 majors this year and inside the top 10 in three of them. He for sure has the nerves to win one.

17. Matthew Wolff

I may get some smoke for this one… I know Wolff had a rough 2020-2021 season. He dealt with some mental health struggles and even a couple of injuries. However, he bounced back beautiffuly during the swing season. During the 4 events he started, he finished inside the top 5 in two of them and he added a T11 finish. He ranked first in scoring average and 4th in strokes gained total, which is arguably the most important stat. You need to embrace the volatility in his game and you’ve got to love the fact that he is one of the best birdie makers on Tour. This is so important when it comes to scoring points in DFS. I will without a doubt have a lot of share of Matthew Wolff early this season and you should too.

18. Daniel Berger

Berger was one of the best Approach players on the PGA Tour (was ranked 8th). He used his strength to become one of the most consistent golfers. He made 22/24 cuts last year and piled up nine Top 10 finishes. While he may not be as long off-the-tee as some other guys, he still is a very capable driver of the golf ball. Look for him to try to win at Pebble Beach again this year versus what may be a pretty weak field due to most top players playing overseas the same week.

19. Abraham Ancer

The 30 years-old Mexican had by far the best year of his career. He won the FedEx St. Jude against an amazing field. Ancer is the prototype short but accurate player. When we see a good number hanging on Ancer at a course that fits his game like the Innisbrook golf club or Harbour Town, we must bet him without blinking an eye.  Ancer was on the rise last year, and he could be in-store for an even bigger 2022. He also should be a big piece on the international team for the upcoming Presidents cup in 2022.

20. Jason Kokrak

Kokrak has a very dangerous weapon in his arsenal. This one is the driver. He is quite honestly one of the 6 or 7 best drivers of the golf ball on the PGA Tour. He combined that force with an extremely hot putter last year. He in fact finished as the 5th best-ranked putter in 2021 per my model. Jason has yet to truly contend against a very strong field like a WGC or a major, but 2022 might just be the year he takes the next step on the tour and in these rankings. 

21. Sungjae Im

22. Harris English

23. Webb Simpson

24. Cameron Smith

25. Talor Gooch

26. Will Zalatoris

27. Patrick Reed

28. Paul Casey

29. Matt Fitzpatrick

30. Joaquin Niemann

31. Corey Conners

32. Aaron Wise

33. Mito Pereira

34. Tyrell Hatton

35. Billy Horschel

36. Marc Leishman

37. Russell Henley

38. Cameron Tringale

39. Max Homa

40. Seamus Power

41. Sergio Garcia

42. Shane Lowry

43. Robert MacIntyre

44. Adam Scott

45. Lucas Herbert

46. Maverick McNealy

47. Mackenzie Hughes

48. Carlos Ortiz

49. Rickie Fowler

50. Kevin Kisner

These rankings will continue to be updated at windailysports.com and I’ll have some emerging stars for you to key-in on for your DFS lineups and betting card as the season moves forward.

-Vincent

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PGAPremium

Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks

Isaiah
written by Isaiah

Welcome back golf fans. This week the PGA Tour travels to beautiful Maui, Hawaii for the first event of the calendar year. The Sentry Tournament of Champions (TOC) is played at The Plantation Course at Kapalua. It’s the only par 73 PGA course on tour, and measures out around 7596 yard (which also makes it the longest). Don’t let the yardage fool you as Kapalua is by all standards a “resort” course designed for vacationers to enjoy themselves. There are multiple changes in elevation, extremely wide fairways, and gigantic Bermuda greens. The warm coastal winds, and 93 bunkers are its only defense. This invite-only event consists of the 40 PGA winners from the last calendar year (Xander Schauffele did not win a PGA event last season, but is here on a special exemption for winning gold at the Tokyo Olympics).  As of now we are down to 38 players as Rory opted out and Cam Champ is out with Covid.  Kapalua is a true birdie fest which has produced minimum scores of -20 for each of the previous 7 years except one (which had serious wind and weather issues which are not expected this year).

I want to mention a few quick tidbits to think about while selecting your lineups: 12 of the last 13 Sentry TOC winners have played in December of the previous year and 5 of the last 7 champions have won on their second trip here. However, players making their debut here haven’t won since Daniel Chopra in 2008. I believe that both course history and recent form are a major factor to consider at Kapalua.

Key Metrics (in order)

These fairways average almost 60 yards wide so accuracy off the tee is of minimal importance. This is also a factor when considering golfers that specialize in gaining strokes on the field with their accuracy (i.e. Morikawa, Ancer). Distance is ALWAYS a key in golf, but previous winners have shown it’s not a necessity here. This has me leaving SG: OTT (off the tee) out of my model altogether.

SG: APP (approach)

Birdie or Better Gained

SG: Par 5

SG: P (putting, on Bermuda)

Putting: 10-15 feet

Scrambling

Initial Picks

Justin Thomas ($10,600) – The only multiple winner here (with a couple 3rds as well), coming in HOT with something to prove this year. Always starts the year well and results have shown since making the switch to ‘Bones’ on the bag.

Patrick Cantlay ($9700) – Skeptical as we haven’t seen him in a while. The reigning Fed-Ex Champion is just priced too low here IMO.

Xander Schauffele ($9500) – Similar to JT, he’s a boss at no-cut events. Another impeccable record here with something to prove.

Jordan Speith ($8900) – My favorite play on the board. Got on the podium in 3 of 4 appearances (4th was a 9th). Risky, but he became a new Dad in the fall (I’ll let it slide). The craftiest player I know around the greens. Time to get back to work at a course he loves.

Daniel Berger ($8400) – He’s just always in the top 10. Perfect lineup filler at this price.

Cameron Smith ($8300) – Like Jordan, great around and on the greens. OTT woes won’t come into play here. Big things are coming this year for Cam (2nd trip narrative).

Sungjae Im ($8200) – Seems to be coming back into the form we all grew to love.  2nd Trip Narrative in play after finishing T5 with all four rounds in the 60’s last year.

Patrick Reed ($7900) – Think he’s carrying a BIG CHIP on his shoulders after the Ryder Cup snub. Stats are never there, but history? Win in ‘15, 2nd in ‘16, 6th in ‘17, playoff in ‘20.  Expecting low ownership for my GPP guy.

Others If You Must: Talor Gooch ($7600), Mark Leishman ($7500), Max Homa ($6700), Seamus Power ($6600), Phil Mickelson ($6500)

Punt Play: K. H. Lee ($6000)

WinDaily has 3 other tools coming at you later this week to help with your process of building winning Draftkings lineups. Check out our Tuesday night show here with Sia, Joel, and Spencer (or on Apple podcasts or the win daily video hub). Spencer also releases an article later in the week. Check back on Wednesday evening to catch Steven’s ownership article to help you nail down those final low-owned guys that’ll get you that big GPP win. As always, make sure to stop into the WinDaily Discord room to ask questions from our stellar PGA team or just compare notes with some of the other members of our family. If you haven’t already, follow WinDailySports on YouTube and via Apple podcasts to check out all the content at WinDailySports.com. We’ve been hitting big with our NFL, NBA, and NHL content and you’re going to want to be part of that. Hope you enjoyed this article.

– Isaiah

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