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GPP

NFL DFS Week 5: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 4 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

Week 4 was another intriguing one across the NFL, as we had a variety of storylines, with the headliner being TB12 and his return to Foxboro. That game certainly did not disappoint, and neither did my QBs and stacks, so let’s try to keep the train rolling this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Similar to most DFS players, I have yet to roster Kirk Cousins ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD), but if there is a week to target him then this is absolutely that week. Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings offense will be facing off against a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 31st in total defense DVOA, which is pretty similar to what their expectation was coming into the season. It is no secret that this team is bottom of the barrel on both sides of the football, and we should look to get exposure to whatever offense is facing them each week. They also clock in at 29th in DvP against the QB position. Outside of week 4, Cousins has had three games with great production, especially at this current price tag. In the first three weeks of the season, Cousins exceeded 300 passing yards twice and the one time that he did not, he had 35 rushing yards and three passing TDs. Kirk has 9 TDs against only one interception so far this season, and has quietly been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks from a points scored perspective. I am hoping that the snoozer of a game against the Browns keeps the masses off of him for week 5 of the NFL, as he is one of the best tournament plays out there.

B. Another team that struggles to limit the damage against opposing quarterbacks is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ryan Tannehill ($6,400 DK / $7,200 FD) draws the best possible matchup for a quarterback, as the Jaguars have a bottom tier defense any way that you slice it. Ranking 30th in total DVOA, 32nd against the pass, and 29th in adjusted sack rate, the Titans should be able to bounce back after a shockingly pathetic loss to the New York Jets. In week 5 of the NFL, Tennessee should have star receiver A.J. Brown back, but Julio Jones is questionable as has been the case for every single game the last few years. Tannehill should have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart a weak defensive unit that should not take much time to dismantle. I would prefer to pay the extra $100 on DK and get up to Cousins, as he has three games of 20+ fantasy points compared to just one for the Titans passer, however if the Cousins ownership comes in higher than expected then this is a great choice at the same price range.

C. A team that is more under the radar this Sunday due to a lower team total than quite a few other options is the New Orleans Saints, who start a very boom or bust quarterback in Jameis Winston ($5,600 DK / $7,000 FD). Despite facing a Washington Football team that ranks 28th in total DVOA, 29th in DVOA against the pass, and DEAD LAST (32nd) in DvP against the quarterback position. According to the numbers, this is the best matchup for an opposing quarterback, and yet I expect Winston to carry nearly no ownership. This price on DraftKings is honestly unbelievable, but that is what happens when someone puts together three awful games in a row. I expect that we see week 1 Jameis come out to play in this spot, and with an 8/2 TD/interception ratio, he has not been as careless with the ball as in years past. This is definitely a risky play given the form, but at this price and ownership in this matchup, I think that having an overweight approach to Winston is a must.

The Stacks

A. This Vikings team has two clear top dogs at the WR position along with a clear top dog at the RB position. However, it is not all obvious and easy here, as Dalvin Cook has been nursing an ankle injury and even though he played last week, he only saw 9 rushing attempts and 6 targets in an affair where his team could only muster seven points. I will be avoiding this rushing attack due to the uncertainty surrounding Cook’s workload, but I would not blame you for taking some shots on him in lower-stakes tournaments. As far as week 5 targets go, Jefferson only has two more catches than Thielen on the season, yet he is $1,100 more expensive on DraftKings and will be much chalkier as well. If choosing one of these guys for tournaments, it absolutely needs to be Thielen, but I am of course fine with targeting both of these pass catchers. On the other side of the ball, after rostering Swift last week and watching the disaster that is the Lions offense in the red zone, I will be staying far away from any players on this team, including Swift and Hockenson, on any slate that is not a showdown this season.

B. As I mentioned above, we will need to take a wait and see approach with this team for week 5 of the NFL since Julio Jones is listed as questionable. This will likely be the case this entire season unless Julio is ruled out for an extended period or takes a trip to the IR. Regardless of the status of Julio, we do know that A.J. Brown is our top option for any Tennessee stacks, and with the number of passes that Derrick Henry has been catching so far this season I am more than fine adding him to these stacks as well. If Julio suits up then of course he is another good addition to our teams, but if he is out then I will keep my Titans exposure to just the two aforementioned players. As we saw in week 4, even with Brown and Jones out of the lineup, the rest of the receiving options on this team are painful. The tricky thing about targeting teams that have awful defenses is that they often have awful offenses as well. That is the case for most of my stacks, however with D.J. Chark suffering an injury last week, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault both enter the conversation as possible bring-back options. I would limit my teams to just one of these two as opposed to both, since this Jaguars squad just does not have any real upside.

C. To wrap things up, we have my bold call of the week as I look to stack up the New Orleans Saints in their matchup against the Washington Football Team. With only a 22-23 point team total on the week and three poor performances in a row from Winston, I would be shocked if this team was even in the top five in terms of popularity for week 5. That is music to any NFL tournament player’s ears, and as long as Taysom Hill does not continue his vulture spree, we could be looking at a big payday in this matchup. The tricky thing here is choosing a pass catcher to stack with Winston outside of Kamara. This is a rare scenario where we actually have a much more reliable option for our bring-back than we do for our main stack. Terry McLaurin is the clear top dog for WFT, and with the Logan Thomas injury we also can target Ricky Seals-Jones since he played 100% of the snaps after Thomas went down. As far as the Saints, we can look to Marquez Callaway if we must, but I am also fine sticking to just Winston and Kamara for Sunday.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL DFS Week 5: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 4 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

The QB’s

The Stacks

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Shriners Hospitals For Children Open

brucegray19722@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – TPC Summerlin

7,251 Yards – Par 71 – Greens: Bentgrass

Bobby Weed masterminded the property on the rugged desert terrain in 1991, with Fuzzy Zoeller serving as his consultant. The course meanders through arroyos and canyons, featuring lush Bentgrass greens to go along with friendly Bermuda rough. I use the word friendly because the rough is only two inches thick, but Bermuda rough can be sticky and cause fliers for those that miss the short grass off the tee. With all that being said, players don’t seem overly concerned about that fact since driving distance is over 13 yards above tour average, but it is worth noting that some of the added distance can be directly correlated to the slight altitude change and firm fairways from the Vegas heat. I think that gives an artificial boost to the shorter hitters, who will get more rollout than they are accustomed to having during a regular stop on tour.

The three par-fives and two short par-fours are the most accessible holes, and four of these are included during the final six-hole stretch. Overall, golfers that can demonstrate ball-striking ability and strategy off the tee should exploit TPC Summerlin since nine of the past 11 winners have taken home the title at 20-under par or better, but these birdie shootouts that don’t highlight a particular skillset are always a little more challenging to handicap. I tried to keep things predictive in a roundabout way, but there are some loopholes to get past since tournaments such as the Shriners Open could open up the field for more players to find success.

Strokes gained Tee to Green (17.5%) – I slightly reconfigured it from how the PGA Tour looks at the stat to try and make it more conducive towards TPC Summerlin. We saw the dispersion in scoring last year be about 15% for both off the tee and around the green – while still coming in at a heavy 37% for approach. I reallocated those percentages to remove putting from the equation entirely, which essentially gave me a weighted T2G metric that incorporated 23% of my total on both OTT and ATG and then 54% on approach.
Total Driving (17.5%) – That is a 65/35 split of accuracy over distance. Yes, players average 13 yards more off the tee here, but I view that more positively for the shorter hitters. Vegas plays in added elevation, and the heat from the town tends to dry up the fairways and create extra rollout. Distance certainly will help, but the Bermuda grass can make a stickier shot than meets the eye, even if the rough isn’t thick.
SG: Total At Easy Courses L50 (10%) – With nine of the last 11 wins coming at 20-under par or better, it takes a specific type of player
SG: Total At TPC Courses L50 (10%) -The TPC filter works nicely since all of the TPC properties are somewhat similar in the sense that they are made for birdies.
Short Par-Four + Par-Five Birdie or Better (10%) – That is about as low as you will ever see me go for a non-par 70, but most holes out here provide the opportunity to make birdie. I thought pinpointing a specific par-total of any kind for a considerable weight was dangerous because it minimizes the impact that other holes will have.
Overall Birdie or Better (15%) – Instead, I added 15 percent here. I liked the complete picture this route took of where I still have 25% of my total statistical data being derived by scoring, but it isn’t condensed into a specific range.
Scrambling (10%) – I considered sand save percentage because over 100 are scattered throughout the property, but I figured scrambling made more sense since golfers will frequently play out of the rough.
SG: Total on Bentgrass Greens (10%) – This is just another way of looking for potential positive putting regression. I don’t mind adding in three-putt avoidance because these are larger green complexes, but I decided to keep the model and use stats like that as more of an eye test than anything else.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Viktor Hovland ($10,600) – Similar to last week, five of my top-nine golfers are in this range, but I will say that I am not as convinced that we are required to start in the $10,000 section. I don’t see a massive difference between most of these players and the dropdown in the 9k range, but it doesn’t mean I don’t have a few golfers that I will be using. Viktor Hovland feels the hardest for me to shake, as he might be sitting on a significant result, averaging 3.79 shots with his irons over his last eight and 2.65 OTT in his previous 16. Hovland has gained off the tee in 19 of his past 21 and ranks sixth in total driving.

Webb Simpson ($10,200) – If I am forced to give a chalk answer near the top, I don’t mind going down the Webb Simpson route. We have seen this narrative countless times where he is almost bulletproof at specific venues. The Wyndham Championship is the more pronounced definition of that, but even here, he has recorded four straight top-20 results. I think Simpson is one of the must-have cash options, but I can also get creative enough with builds to use him in GPPs.

Favorite Cash Play– Webb Simpson ($10,200)

$9,000 Range

Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900) – I will find myself littered in this section, as it seems like an optimal strategy to formulate flatter builds. Louis Oosthuizen should have playability across the board because of his 16 straight made cuts, but he also has upside at this specific test. There is a slight worry about his ability to make birdies in bunches for a shootout like this, but he should be safe for cash and still possesses a contrarian nature for GPPs at around 10% ownership. Oosthuizen ranks second on bentgrass greens and first in strokes gained total over his last 24 rounds.

Scottie Scheffler ($9,700) – If you look at my model this week, you will notice Scottie Scheffler doesn’t grade out exceptionally well with the way it was released, but one of the things I like to do is alter certain variables on my version to try and see who moves when something is added or subtracted. Scheffler will remain GPP-only for me because there are a few red flags, but some of them are easy to explain, like the fact that he has never finished better than 74th here in two tries. If you remember, Scheffler played in the Shriners tournament last year after taking three weeks off because of COVID-19. And his 74th place finish in 2019 is more aberrational than anything else when you consider that he entered Saturday eight-under par and within striking distance of the leaders. Scheffler feels underweight in projected ownership, and I think he has the upside to win this event at his best. I don’t view this situation much differently than the one I found with Max Homa at the Genesis, where he was lightly owned, but my reconfigured model loved his potential.

Harris English ($9,300) – Haris English ranks inside the top-25 of my model for strokes gained tee to green over his last 24 rounds and is also inside the top-16 over the last two years for scoring at easy courses, par-five birdie or better, overall birdie or better, scrambling and total driving.

Si Woo Kim ($9,000) – Four top-30s in Si Woo Kim’s last five starts. Two top-15s here in his previous three appearances. Top-10 in my model at short courses. I think he fits nicely into a cash build and is still highly usable in GPPs.

Additional Thoughts: I am okay with the idea of using any of the options in this section now that Kevin Na has withdrawn. Hideki Matsuyama ($9,500) and Sungjae Im ($9,200) are both very playable.

$8,000 Range

Patrick Reed ($8,600) – I consider this GPP-only if his ownership remains sub-10 percent, but he is too good to be priced here and not generate traction.

Joaquin Niemann ($8,300) – East Lake will sometimes eat a golfer alive, but his ball-striking numbers are trending towards a big result if we remove that start. Niemann has gained OTT in 31 of 34, with his irons in 17 of 20, and he probably has about as much upside as anyone we can find in the $8,000s on the board.

Other Thoughts: Cameron Tringale ($8,500) and Paul Casey ($8,900) will be sprinkled into builds, but I am going so heavy in the $9,000 range that I don’t have a ton of room for multiple selections here. Reed and Niemann are two of the better upside choices.

$7,000 Range

Russell Henley ($7,900) – Russell Henley was shaky in his last start at the BMW Championship, but he had gained at least five shots tee to green in his previous five events. We keep running into this trend with some of these options where I am not sure they can make enough birdies to win the event, but the reason I am willing to forgive Henley for ranking 72nd in my model for overall birdie or better percentage is because of how he performs at a more straightforward test. It is the same theory that I had with Scheffler in the sense that some of his data will get skewed at the more challenging tracks that they play, and we should see a more robust outcome when faced at a birdie fest because of his ball-striking nature.

Brian Harman ($7,600) – Brian Harman always feels universally underpriced for how I run my model. As Sia said on the podcast this week, ” don’t be surprised to see Harman crack into the next range at some point.”

Ian Poulter ($7,000) – Ian Poulter is trending across the board with his strokes gained data. He is the 53rd most expensive player on DraftKings and is 30th in the betting market. That is the third-largest disparity behind only Hayden Buckley and Adam Hadwin.

Additional Thoughts: I will mostly be using this range as random dart throws when not playing the three above. I don’t envision having to use any of these often, but they are options I am either rounding a lineup up with or playing as my second-to-last choice. Stewart Cink ($7,100), Kevin Kisner ($7,400), Sebastian Munoz ($7,000), Rasmus Hojgaard ($7,100), Cameron Davis ($7,300), Sahtith Theegala ($7,500), Seamus Power ($7,400), Cameron Young ($7,000), Talor Moore ($7,300). Volatile options with high upside and high missed cut potential.

$6,000 Range

Adam Hadwin ($6,800) – I never play Adam Hadwin. In fact, I usually fade him in H2H wagers, but I love how this course sets up for him. Three top-35s here since 2016, and while he is volatile missing three of his last six cuts, Hadwin has two top-10s recently. The Canadian ranks second in strokes gained total on Bentgrass and fourth in short par-four scoring

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: William McGirt ($6,100), Adam Long ($6,000), Hayden Buckley ($6,600), Harry Hall ($6,000), Mark Hubbard ($6,100), Hank Lebioda ($6,300), James Hahn ($6,400), Kyle Stanley ($6,100), Adam Schenk ($6,800), Matt Kuchar ($6,600), Nick Taylor ($6,300). I am telling you now that if we get half those guys through the cut, I will consider it a success. Hall, Long, Hubbard and Stanley are projected to miss by my math, but they are extremely close. The other handful are barely in on the other side, but I hope that adds a little insight into playable options that my model expects to outproduce their price tag. I won’t find myself down here often this week, but there are random dart throws to target.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

The Shriners Open: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

Welcome to the Vegas swing, baby. It’s gonna be a fun west coast ride and we kick it off with The Shriners Open. We’ve got a full field event this week that is going to test APP precision and PUTT, but make no mistake about it, it’ll be another birdie-fest. I want good ball strikers but being sharp OTT isn’t a pre-requisite as the fairways are wide and there isn’t much trouble beyond them even if you miss. We’re going to discuss the course dynamics at length during our PGA Livestream, which of course, will feature @TeeOffSports model breakdown. In the interim, check out the Shriners Open Initial Picks. I’ll note that most of the plays below are for GPP and we will have at least two additional articles tomorrow that will address both GPP and Cash.

Viktor Hovland (10600) – No experience on this track, but I think he’s the best golfer in this field and his ball striking and APP play can get red hot which is what you’re going to need here.

Abraham Ancer (10400) – He’s in good form and is certainly a good fit with his ball striking and potentially hot putter. His course history is hit or miss with two 4^th place finishes and 2 MCs, but I’m leaning toward a Top 10 finish this week.

Louis Oosthuizen (9900) – I think Louis has plenty of opportunity to be contending here late on Sunday afternoon. He’s a great ball striker, particularly on APP and he’s no stranger to a hot putter. Interesting to note that he hasn’t been great from the APP proximities I’m focused upon this week, but I’m willing to overlook that.

Si Woo Kim (9000) – I like him as a GPP play if his rostership is low. He’s made 3 cuts in a row at The Shriners Open and that includes two Top 15s. His recent form has also been very good. The putter can get him in trouble but I’ll take a chance on him this week.

Erik Van Rooyen (8000) – We haven’t seen much of EVR lately which makes it the perfect time to roster him as people likely take a wait and see approach. Last we saw him he was in his best form as he fought to get into the FedEx Cup Playoffs and then continued to surge. A great play if the ownership is low. Speaking of good GPPs at low ownership, if Patrick Reed is very low owned, he’s another guy I would play in GPPs.

Russell Henley (7900) – I’m looking for guys who may be able to stuff it near the pin on these large Bentgrass greens. If Henley’s APP game is what it can be, he’s certainly eligible to do just that. He’s made 3 out of his last 4 cuts here, but nothing higher than 24^th.

Kevin Streelman (7800) – His history here is just plain bad and his recent history isn’t much better. I happen to think he’s a great course fit and I think he may be a very sneaky and low owned GPP play. Do not play him in cash.

Brian Harman (7600) – I really wonder what his ownership will be at The Shriners Open. If he’s low owned he’s an easy play for me with three Top 20s over his last three on this track. I’m hopeful that his awful recent form will steer people away (and I’d like to chalk up that poor form to fatigue down the stretch of a jam packed 2021 season).

Pat Perez (7200) – Not a guy I normally roster but I like his APP play and his OTT game won’t hurt him to badly. He can rack up birdies and find a hot putter and while he MC’d last year, he placed 3^rd and 7^th the two times prior to that. Honorable mention to Maverick McNealy in this 7k range.

Henrik Norlander (7000) – His history here isn’t great, but I just love his form right now. He gained over 8 strokes on APP last week and has been great on APP and with the PUTT since last summer. Hoping this is the beginning of a hot streak.

Hank Lebioda (6300) – There’s a lot to consider in this 6k range, but for now I’ll leave you with Hammerin’ Hank as it wouldn’t shock me if he returns to form. He missed the cut at the Fortinet, but was pretty good on APP and really lost it OTT and ARG. I don’t expect that to crush him at The Shriners Open and I’m willing to gamble at this price. Way more on this 6k range during our PGA Livestream.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-13.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Buccaneers at Patriots 10.3

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Buccaneers at Patriots 10.3

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.

Vegas Script: Total: 49.5 Bucs -6.5

This game needs no explanation. Tom Brady returns to New England and we all know that he wants to show the world that it was him, not Belichick, who was the real reason New England was the dominant force in the NFL for almost two decades. My feelings on this contest do not quite match up with Vegas because I just do not think Mac is quite ready to take a game as big as this one and put it all on him. I think nerves will be a factor and the Bucs should get up early. If you are placing any bets tonight consider taking the Bucs -6.5.

Captains:

Chalk: Tom Brady, $19,200:

I do not think there is a price high enough to keep Brady from being the big chalk tonight and for good reason. Even in his mid 40’s, he remains one of the best QB’s in the league and he wants to pour it on Bill and the Patriots for even entertaining the possibility of replacing him with Jimmy G years back. It does not matter what the score is tonight, he is not taking his foot off of the gas, and this is a guy who throws is 50 times a night against teams he does not take issue with. He may throw until his arm falls off.

Pivot: Antonio Brown, $10,500:

Finishing with the silver medal in the petty Olympics we have Antonio Brown. Brady is the one who brought Brown into New England and I can promise you that he has not forgotten that. If I am going to pivot from the goat I am going to do so with the guy I see getting the lion’s share of the passing targets this week with Gronk out with broken ribs. I think people are sleeping on Brown a bit because of the missed time and a Falcons game where he only saw three targets. Do not sleep on him tonight, the narrative is almost as important as the ability tonight and both are high.

Contrarian #1: Jakobi Meyers, $12,600:

If you want to play the garbage time narrative I like the idea of running Jakobi in the captain spot. Last week with the Patriots down, Meyers saw 14 targets for 94 yards and if the Bucs have one weakness it is with the young secondary pieces. I think Mac will struggle from a real football standpoint but I see him getting a lengthy garbage time period where he and Jakobi can pad some stats.

Contrarian #2: Chris Godwin, $16,800:

He may have ended up higher on my captain’s list if he were a little cheaper. I love the idea of going after the Pats defense from the slot and Godwin is already at 25 targets in just three games this season. If you choose to not mess with AB this week Godwin would be my other main WR play for the Bucs on the evening. Godwin is the best route runner on this team and Brady will know exactly where to go to find the soft spots in the defense.

Contrarian#3: Mac Jones, $14,100 :

As I mentioned above I think Mac has a bit of a tough time early on. While it may look ugly on the field if he has troubles in the early going that means that Damien Harris will not be an option (not that I think he does great against the Bucs front) and he will be in catch up mode early. Garbage time against the Bucs should result in a pretty productive day from a fantasy standpoint and Mac should have his first multi TD game in the process.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Buccaneers at Patriots 10.3 Flex Plays:

Mike Evans
Damien Harris
Hunter Henry
Kendrick Bourne
Jonnu Smith
Cameron Brate
Leonard Fournette
Ronald Jones
JJ Taylor
OJ Howard
Tyler Johnson
Bucs Defense

Kickers and defenses:

I’m not really messing with kickers as per usual but I really don’t expect Bill or Brady to hold back much tonight. I could see a justification for the Bucs defense as they can be a nightmare forcing turnovers and pressuring the QB and Mac being a rookie QB in the biggest game of his career I think they will be even more aggressive than usual.

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Buccaneers at Patriots 10.3 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 4 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s Cash Game and GPP articles, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

GPP:

(if you do not want to use Javonte because of the timeshare Michael Carter is in a great spot as a pivot at 5%)

Javonte Williams, Broncos $5,000DK/$5,900FD : (1.5%)

I will continue to beat this drum because it is only a matter of time before his talent results in a GPP takedown. With Melvin Gordon playing well, people will continue to avoid playing him in a 50/50 time share situation until the status quo changes. As a rookie he already has all of the tools to be an elite three down back but there is one thing people do not know, yet. He is one of the most intelligent people on the football field full stop. Not only does he understand his role, he understands the roles of every other player on the field which combined with his physical skills can and will make him an elite running back in this league the moment he gets the backfield to himself. Against the Ravens his pass catching ability is going to be vital (remember what I said about Swift last week being able to exploit the linebackers and safety’s). He will be finding open zones due to the cover 1 free concepts that are perfect for his open field agility and ability to break tackles. Gordon is questionable as of now but most people will stay away due to not knowing if he will be the main guy in the late games.

Nick Chubb, Browns, $7,000DK/$8,000FD: (3.5%)

Chubb is another player that I will continue to ride until he finally explodes and the fact that you can get him for only 7K, at under 4% ownership, against a bottom three run defense, in a pickem game, with a 51.5 total screams GPP play. Last week the Browns finally gave us the volume that we were expecting from Chubb with 22 carries. Luckily for us this week he only gained 84 yards and failed to get into the end zone for the first time in the regular season since week 10 of 2020. Chubb is an elite back averaging 5.5 yards per carry and Jarvis Landry will be out for at least a few more weeks. While Beckham will try to put the team on his back the Browns are at their absolute best when controlling the game from the ground.

Miles Sanders, Eagles, $6,400DK/$6,500FD: (3%)

The Eagles coaching staff embarrassed themselves on a nationally televised game and has everyone asking them why they would choose to not even consider running the football against a team that was short two of their defensive linemen and was susceptible to the run. Miles Sanders racked up 27 yards on only two carries and 28 yards on only three catches. It was an embarrassing game plan, so I am fairly certain after all of those questions and the clear accuracy issues of Jalen Hurts that they will make more of an effort to at minimum run enough to keep the Chiefs honest. I just do not see a scenario where Sirianni bails on his run game to an embarrassing degree two weeks in a row.

Also Consider: Zack Moss (3.5%), Michael Carter (5%), Antonio Gibson (10%)

WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3

Cash:

Derrick Henry, Titans, $8,800DK/$10,200FD: (20%)

This doesn’t take much explanation, his price will continue to climb from here and he is in a prime spot against the Jets. One thing that I would like to point out that Adam already has. Henry is now being used in the passing game. He is on pace for 73 targets this season dwarfing his career-high of 31. So now we have Derrick Henry catching four or five passes a game and his rushing volume is still the best in the league. Add in no AJ Brown and he is a must for your cash contests. Draftkings has not caught up to what Henry is doing in PPR. He is $1,000 too cheap this week.

David Montgomery, Bears, $5,800DK/$7,500FD: (17%)

I told you guys way back in the preseason that Nagy was going to have to sacrifice his play-calling duties to have a chance to keep his job. Well, four weeks in, and the rumors are that Nagy quietly surrendered the play-calling back to Lazor this week. When that happened last season David had the best six-game stretch of his career rushing for 598 yards with seven rushing TDs and 24 catches for 226 yards and one TD. The icing on the cake is that we get to enjoy this change at the same time that the Bears match up against a competitive but defensively inept Lions squad. Sadly his ownership will be high but I am still going to mix him into my GPP’s as well as Cash contests. Happy Monty day!

Alvin Kamara, Saints, $8,400DK/$9,000FD: (18%)

I haven’t been on the Kamara train this season but this is an absolute smash spot against the Giants this week. The Giants are a little better than people give them credit for against the run but they are by no means great. Washington ended up being a random shootout on a Thursday night and they abandoned the run. Atlanta is…..Atlanta right now. Denver is the only other team they faced with a legit run game and they tore them up to the tune of 165 yards on the ground. One thing at least to this point that I will say is that I was mistaken about the volume he would get in the run game. He has exceeded 20 carries in 2 of 3 and while his receiving numbers are down with Winston he is still getting at least four targets a game which still gives him some upside in that regard.

Also Consider: Alvin Kamara (18%), D’Andre Swift (15%), Chubba Hubbard (25%/FD), Najee Harris (15%)

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 4: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 4 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

Week 3 was mostly a bust for yours truly as I tried to get a bit too cute with some Jaguars stacks. Luckily I now am very well aware of how much Trevor Lawrence and the Jags suck, so I will not be making that mistake again. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Similar to most of the DFS industry, I have yet to roster Patrick Mahomes ($8,100 DK / $8,700 FD) and his weapons in this young NFL season. Obviously the reasoning has nothing to do with the talent, upside, or stack options and all to do with the consistently exorbitant price tags of this Chiefs stack. Unfortunately, I am not here to tell you that this team is suddenly extremely affordable this week, so we will definitely need to find some cheap ancillary pieces to get exposure to. However, I expect the Chiefs to smash to a similar degree that they did in week 1. This game is tied for the highest total of the week with the Cardinals and Rams matchup, and I do not expect the Chiefs to be very popular yet again. This team has let down bettors and DFS players the last two weeks, and their prices have not exactly dropped very much. Without any chalky value plays jumping out at this point in the week, DFS players will again have a very difficult time affording this team unless they hate the rest of their lineup. I think that we can find a way to make this stack work this week and the Chiefs should live up to their expectations as the team with the highest implied total.

B. If Patrick Mahomes does end up catching a significant amount of ownership, then I can assure your that my second quarterback will not. Matt Ryan ($5,400 DK / $6,700 FD) is definitely approaching the end of his career, there is no arguing that, but I feel strongly that he still has a few ceiling games left in him this season. This is a great spot for one as he faces a Washington Football Team that is ranked 30th in total defense DVOA and 26th in DVOA against the pass. This team has surrendered production to the quarterback position at the 27th highest rate, and while this game does not jump off the page in terms of an over/under, the ownership will be nearly non-existent. Washington struggles heavily against the run as well, but with the two stars of this offense slotting in as pass-catchers, I expect the damage to come through the air in this one.

C. I am not sure that I have written up a single quarterback twice through four weeks of this young NFL season, and that will not come to an end here. Russell Wilson ($7,100 DK / $7,700 FD) and the Seattle Seahawks will head to San Francisco to face off against the 49ers for the afternoon portion of the main slate this Sunday. This is a sneaky game to target because the total is not in the top four for the week, but it does slot in at number five and is only a few points behind the two games tied for the highest total which are likely to be much chalkier. The 49ers defense has not seen very much success through the first three weeks, ranking 24th in total DVOA, 27th against the pass, and 18th against the run. The clear way to attack this defense so far this season has been through the air, and that is what I expect Pete Carroll to do in this spot. We should see Russ get cooking as a slight road underdog in a soft matchup for quarterbacks with a very solid over/under.

The Stacks

A. The Chiefs side of this stack is very obvious if you watch any football at all, so I will touch on it briefly but focus more on the other side of the ball as we search for potential game-stack correlations. Some like to get cute with the Chiefs and target the ancillary pass catchers of Hardman, Robinson, or even Pringle, but if we are getting tournament-winning upside out of this team it will not be from these guys. The obvious options are Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and I will keep all of my Chiefs stacks to either one of both of these two guys. On the other side of the ball, DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor are the two top dogs, which does not exactly inspire any confidence in a bring-back. The Eagles looked absolutely horrendous against the Cowboys on Monday night, and while the KC defense has not exactly been great, this Eagles team is horrible. I will likely avoid rostering any Philly players this week, but if you do then you can hope Smith wakes up, as he had absolutely zero impact on the MNF game in Dallas.

B. We have a similar situation for the second stack that I am targeting, as we have two clear top dogs and then not much else. The difference with this game stack however, is that we do have a few very solid options on the other side of the ball. I will limit my Falcons stacks to Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, although I do have more interest on the WFT tight end Logan Thomas than I have in Pitts. Pitts has not had anything more than three pedestrian performances thus far, which is expected out of tight ends, especially those of the rookie variety. However, he is priced up across the industry and I would rather take the ownership and salary savings that Thomas provides. Our other two options from WFT are Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. While I would not want to get exposure to more than one WFT pass catcher per lineup, Taylor Heinicke actually looks much better than I expected, so this game certainly has shootout potential.

C. The final game that I will be looking to stack in NFL GPPs this Sunday is the Seattle Seahawks vs. the San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks are always an interesting case because similar to other teams, they do have two clear top dogs in the offense. However unlike other teams, these two pass catchers both play WR, and when one goes off the other tends to disappear. If you look at any type of correlation data, you will see that other teams that have a top player at TE and a top player at WR tend to have those two players correlate much higher than Lockett and Metcalf correlate. Due to this, I typically only get access to one of these two pass catchers per lineup, but I would not fault you for going with both and hoping Russ throws 40+ passes. On the 49ers side of the ball, we have Deebo Samuel who is off to a scorching start this season, Brandon Aiyuk who is letting a ton of people down, and George Kittle who is arguably the third best tight end in the league behind Kelce and Waller. This may be recency bias, but I am definitely off of Aiyuk until he shows us something. For that reason, I will keep my bring-backs limited to Samuel and/or Kittle.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 4: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 4 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

The QB’s

The Stacks

4 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Sanderson Farms Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Hello everybody, and welcome to the initial installment of ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – Country Club of Jackson

7,461 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Bermuda

The Country Club of Jackson is a unique venue to try and handicap from a DFS or gambling perspective. Originally designed by John Fought and Mike Gogel, the layout pays homage to Donald Ross by mimicking his typical quirks throughout the property. That means undulating greens will play a heavy factor at the facility, and it will require golfers to miss shots to the correct part of the fairways and greens to find success. The ability to work the ball both ways should be seen as a benefit, and while the rough should be considered non-existent, the undulation and set up of the course will still require misses to come to the correct side if players want a legitimate chance to score on most holes.

Unfortunately, that is about where our help stops from trying to handicap this statistically. I want to preface my breakdown by saying this course has been difficult for me to figure out in the past because the numerical data doesn’t seem to equal what is being shown on paper. Strokes gained putting and proximity from 100-150 yards continue to jump out like a sore thumb, but I’ve noticed the golfers winning the tournaments every year are some of the worst in those categories during that season.

To highlight that viewpoint a little more, let’s take a deeper look into the past three champions since 2018. As I mentioned, putting has been very impactful in deciding the winner, but Sergio Garcia, Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ all graded outside of the top-100 in putting last year. Conversely, and maybe even more alarming, the two most significant differentials when looking at approach shot distribution here versus tour average have come from 100-125 yards and 125-150 yards. When we break down each golfers’ finish during the year they won the event, the picture gets murky fast. Garcia finished last year 92nd from 100-125 and 144th from 125-150, Munoz was a more respectable 61st and 29th in 2019 and Champ was awful in 2018, ranking 187th and 173rd.

Look, I am the king of telling people not to overreact to limited sample sizes because they often are aberrational results beyond anything else, but the lack of historical production from those two ranges from the winners piqued my curiosity. Yes, the plurality of approaches are coming from 100-150 yards, but what if the most important shots are coming elsewhere? I decided to dive into that a little deeper, and I think I figured out a potential answer.

The last five winners have combined to shoot 97-under par during their wins. That highlights a birdie fest, but it doesn’t tell you where the scoring is coming. It isn’t going to blow anyone’s mind when I say the four par-fives are most impactful to find success, but what if I told you it is so much so that it accounts for 47.5% of the winning output? That’s substantial, right? Well, what if I also told you that another 11.5% is coming from the 15th hole – a hole that plays as a short par-four and is drivable off the tee. That would certainly raise some eyebrows that 59% of the scoring is coming during a five-hole stretch, especially when projections would suggest that the average golfer is only birding them 33.68% of the time, giving us a massive disparity between the winners and those that barely make the cut.

So with that thought in mind, I built a model to highlight those five must-have holes and came up with the following:

Proximity From 200+ Yards (20%) – This will lead me to my next category, but the real scoring chances seem to be coming for those who can control their long irons.
Par-Five Birdie or Better (25%) – As I mentioned, 47.5% of the winning scores are coming here.
Short Par-Four Efficiency (7.5%) – That takes the par-four 15th and even a little of the par-four first. I didn’t include that first hole into any of my metrics, but the ability to play shorter par-fours well will be critical.
Total Driving (17.5%) – That is an 80/20 split of distance over accuracy.
Overall Birdie or Better (10%) – I want birdie-makers that can get hot.
Strokes Gained Total Donald Ross (10%) – These types of courses are always similar.
GIR (10%) – You need to hit greens in regulation if you want to provide yourself a chance to make birdie.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Will Zalatoris ($10,800) – Pricing looks very solid at the top of the board. I think you could nitpick some of these golfers being a spot higher or lower when it comes to their price tag, but the top four players of Sam Burns ($11,000), Will Zalatoris ($10,800), Sergio Garcia ($10,500) and Sungjae Im ($10,300) are the same top four I have in my model (just a marginally different order). When pricing is spot-on like that, it can be challenging to find an edge, but I like Zalatoris because I think he provides the most complete package for all contests. The American becomes the number one golfer in my model when I remove the Ross attachment from the weight – a stat that is slightly skewy as it is.

Sungjae Im ($10,300) – Sungjae Im is a Bermuda specialist that will get a boost in ownership because of that, but it is worth noting that he has averaged 2.4 shots gained per event with his irons over his last nine starts. Im ranks inside the top-25 of my model in proximity from 200+ yards, par-five birdie or better, overall birdie or better, short par-four efficiency and strokes gained total on Donald Ross tracks, making him another target that is playable in all builds.

Potential MME Pivot – Sergio Garcia ($10,500)

$9,000 Range

Cameron Davis ($9,100) – My favorite play in this section is Cameron Davis at $9,100. Sixth here last year, which isn’t the be-all, end-all for a course that doesn’t have great rollover effect, but his distance and birdie-making prowess shows why he did find success here in 2019 and 2020. Davis is currently under 10 percent owned and is the second-largest differential in my model when comparing my rank versus his ownership projection of a golfer priced $9,000 or above. Only Sergio Garcia has a more significant difference.

Additional Thoughts: Keegan Bradley ($9,700), Cameron Tringale ($9,400), Harold Varner III ($9,200) and Charley Hoffman ($9,000) all feel playable in cash. Mito Periera ($9,900) is the number one player in my upside model, but I think his ownership projection makes him more of a single-entry target than that of an MME-style build.

$8,000 Range

Carlos Ortiz ($8,600) – I keep waiting for Carlos Ortiz’s game to flash again, but two top-fives here since 2018 is a pretty good indicator that he likes this venue. Ortiz has gained strokes with his irons in seven of his previous nine starts and off the tee in his past five. The fact that he has made 10 of the past 12 cuts only adds to the luster, and it feels like a big result might be just around the corner.

Matthew Wolff ($8,500) – Consider Matthew Wolff a GPP-only play, but the potential is there for him to take down an MME for you at roughly 10 percent ownership. His floor might be that of a golfer that comes into the week having missed back-to-back cuts, but his upside is that of a $10,000 golfer. Expect that volatility with what you might receive, but I find the risk to be worth the reward.

Cash Play: Seamus Power ($8,800)

$7,000 Range

Keith Mitchell ($7,800) – If distance and off the tee play is going to matter at the Sanderson Farms, why not Keith Mitchell? Like Sungjae Im, Mitchell is a Bermuda specialist that tends to pop out of nowhere, but he has shown life recently with multiple top-10s in his past four starts.

Taylor Pendrith ($7,800) – We still don’t have enough data to form a concrete opinion, but Taylor Pendrith looks like the real deal from the limited sample that we do have in front of us. The Canadian ranks first in both distance and strokes gained off the tee in this field, and while I do have some concerns about his long irons, the par-five scoring has been brilliant. Pendrith can be deployed a little safer across the board than the other two names in this range.

Luke List ($7,500) – The stats are trending better than the current form looks on paper for Luke List, and it is the same blueprint I am trying to find over and over again. Give me distance, long iron play and the ability to score at the five critical holes.

Additional Thoughts: Chad Ramey ($7,000) burned everyone in his last start at the Fortinet Championship, but the fact that he is priced as essentially an $8,000 golfer when we look at the top-20 market is pretty telling.

$6,000 Range

Grayson Sigg ($6,900) – Grayson Sigg is the eighth-best golfer in my model for this field when it comes to current form over the past 10 weeks. His GIR percentage and long iron play might leave something to be desired, but we are just trying to find potential when we get here, and Sigg has shown that early in his career when it comes to making birdies.

Hudson Swafford ($6,900) –Hudson Swafford is a good Bermuda player that excels off the tee. Burning everyone at the Fortinet has lowered his ownership total, but I like this course better for his upside potential.

Kevin Tway ($6,800) -Five top-30s in his last seven. Seven made cuts in his previous eight. We have seen Kevin Tway excel before on these driver-friendly tests.

John Augenstein ($6,700) – John Augenstein has the amateur pedigree to continue this recent burst of success.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Dylan Frittelli ($6,600), Andrew Putnam ($6,600), Peter Malnati ($6,500), Tyler McCumber ($6,500), Brandon Hagy ($6,300), Wyndham Clark ($6,400), Anirban Lahiri ($6,200) and Davis Thompson ($6,100). Please note that these are highly volatile options that might possess a higher ceiling but also a lower floor.

4 years ago 0 comments

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The Sanderson Farms Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The new PGA Tour year is well underway and this week we make a stop in Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Invitational. Feels like I’ve been saying a lot these days, but this week we will have yet another birdie-fest. Usually that means almost the entire field is in play, but there will definitely be an added emphasis to golfers who are long off the tee. We’re always looking for good APP and the shorter irons will definitely be emphasized here. For more on the course and each golfer, tune into our Tuesday night PGA Livestream at 8:00. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks.

Sam Burns (11000) – Burns being the highest priced golfer tells you what you need to know about this field, but he has been very good lately and has shown the ability to pop at any moment. His history here is pretty weak other than a 3^rd place finish in 2019. I also like Sungjae in this range.

Mito Pereira (9900) – Likely to be very popular so be ready to pivot in GPP’s if the ownership percentage gets too high, but this guy has plenty of upside and flashed more than a few times last season and this season at the Fortinet (3^rd place). He’s well above average in almost every metric that matters to me this week.

Keegan Bradley (9700) – I don’t love the price but Keegan is an elite ball striker and his PUTT troubles could be minimized at a course that has a history of rewarding bad putters. He was 4^th here in 2020.

Cam Davis (9100) – A great course fit who has shown upside both in his recent play and at The Sanderson Farms. I really like his trajectory at The Sanderson Farms as in his only three years here he has gone MC, 28^th and 6^th.

Charley Hoffman (9000) – Certainly not a sexy pick but if there were ever a field for Charley to contend in, it would be here at The Sanderson Farms Championship. He is good OTT and great on APP and rates out well with the PUTT and with BOB gained. Finishes of 6^th and 23^rd over the last two years.

Seamus Power (8800) – I think the pricetag may keep people off of Power and I think that makes him a pretty solid GPP play. He has a lot of experience here for a younger golfer and has had solid finishes. Recent form isn’t great but plenty of upside in the BOB Gained department. I will also consider Aaron Wise and Carlos Ortiz in this range as GPP plays only.

Patrick Rodgers (7600) – A risky play for sure as the metrics don’t jump off the page and his course history isn’t great either. I do think he’s a good course fit however and I’m willing to take a chance on a guy who has shown some upside over the last few tournaments.

Luke List (7500) – If you think PUTT is neutralized this week then I have the golfer for you: meet Luke. List is great OTT and on APP and can hit it a long way, but he is borderline hilarious with the PUTT. His missed his last two cuts here as well so tread carefully. A GPP play only.

Henrik Norlander (7200) – He’s been very good as of late and his main trouble spot is the short game, which shouldn’t come into play too much at The Sanderson Farms. Finished 4^th in 2021.

Matt Wallace (7100) – His play as of late hasn’t been good on either the PGA or European Tour, but his upside is clearly better than most in this price range. Hopefully the long break has Matt tweaking his game a bit and I’m willing to take the chance in GPPs.

Rory Sabbatini (6900) – All you really need to do with Rory is look at his course history and recent history and you’ll see he’s a solid play in the 6k range. Rory was 10^th at The Wyndham, 2^nd at The Olympics and finished 12^th and 20^th at his last two efforts at The Sanderson Farms.

Brandon Hagy (6300) – A dart throw who has shown flashes, albeit sparingly. His strength is OTT. He’s MC’d here his last three efforts but finished 18^th and 14^th the two years prior to that.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-12.

4 years ago 0 comments

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GPP

Course – TPC Summerlin

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Favorite Cash Play– Webb Simpson ($10,200)

$9,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: I am okay with the idea of using any of the options in this section now that Kevin Na has withdrawn. Hideki Matsuyama ($9,500) and Sungjae Im ($9,200) are both very playable.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Cameron Tringale ($8,500) and Paul Casey ($8,900) will be sprinkled into builds, but I am going so heavy in the $9,000 range that I don’t have a ton of room for multiple selections here. Reed and Niemann are two of the better upside choices.

$7,000 Range

$6,000 Range

Vegas Script: Total: 49.5 Bucs -6.5

Captains:

Chalk: Tom Brady, $19,200:

Pivot: Antonio Brown, $10,500:

Contrarian #1: Jakobi Meyers, $12,600:

Contrarian #2: Chris Godwin, $16,800:

Contrarian#3: Mac Jones, $14,100 :

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Buccaneers at Patriots 10.3 Flex Plays:

Kickers and defenses:

GPP:

Javonte Williams, Broncos $5,000DK/$5,900FD : (1.5%)

Nick Chubb, Browns, $7,000DK/$8,000FD: (3.5%)

Miles Sanders, Eagles, $6,400DK/$6,500FD: (3%)

WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3

Cash:

Derrick Henry, Titans, $8,800DK/$10,200FD: (20%)

David Montgomery, Bears, $5,800DK/$7,500FD: (17%)

Alvin Kamara, Saints, $8,400DK/$9,000FD: (18%)

Course – Country Club of Jackson

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Potential MME Pivot – Sergio Garcia ($10,500)

$9,000 Range

$8,000 Range

Cash Play: Seamus Power ($8,800)

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Chad Ramey ($7,000) burned everyone in his last start at the Fortinet Championship, but the fact that he is priced as essentially an $8,000 golfer when we look at the top-20 market is pretty telling.

$6,000 Range

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