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The 151st Open Championship Picks

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Claret jug sits at Hoylake Royal Liverpool Golf Club, host for our 151st The Open Championship Picks

Golf snobs will be delighted for the return to Royal Liverpool Golf Club, colloquially known as Hoylake, for the 151st Open Championship. Although last week’s Genesis Scottish Open offers up similar-ish conditions, The Renaissance Club can really only be described at links golf lite. For many, performance on links track remains the true test of golf. It has perennially been an examination of all aspects of a golfers game. Further, one that has managed to largely avoid the increasing advantage of the long drivers that now dominate the leaderboards across the globe. This course is iconic and provides a rugged yet beautiful test for our Open Championship picks.

We were oh so close to yet another winner at the Scottish Open. Rory McIlroy won in near impossible circumstances and continues to impress, as he arrives at a course he won at in 2014. We had just two selections last week with a unit stake over 1. They were Scottie Scheffler, who finished 3rd in typical fashion, and Tyrrell Hatton. Hatton particularly had a 2 shot lead into the last 9 holes, before throwing that away over 6 holes to wind up 6th. That was also in rather typical fashion for what has been a frustrating year for the Brit. We also had young Scot Ewen Ferguson continuing to impress. He was put up at a massive 250/1 and finished up in 12th, just two shots outside the place money but sufficient to cash both Top 20 and Top 40 bets he had recommended.

Royal Liverpool Golf Club Hoylake – Course Analysis

Royal Liverpool Golf Club presents as a stern test for the Open picks. The first, and perhaps more notable feature, are the 6 internal out of bounds areas for the golfers to avoid. For the uninitiated, finding OB off the tee is not just a penalty shot but also loss of distance. It is one of the harshest penalties a golfer can face in regular circumstances. The scary thing with Hoylake is that these areas are often mere yards from the fairway. It does not take much here for things to go very, very wrong. Not something we want for our Open Championship picks!

Further adding to this are strategically placed fairway bunkers. Often occurring right in the key landing distances, these bunkers are deep with extreme faces. They should be viewed as you would a water hazard. The same bunkers are littered around the greens, with many areas shaved and slope to feed your golf ball right to the bottom of the pit.

And yet, we are not done with the hazards here. Thick gorse bushes are found around the course and, again, just mere yards off the relatively narrow fairways. Gorse presents extremely thick bushes with sturdy branches. If finding your ball in them is near impossible, hitting a shot from them certainly is.

Ideal Player Profile for The Open Championship picks

What this means is you can’t simply rip driver here whenever you like. You will need to be extremely strategic and display exquisite course management to be successful. If you can be both long and consistently straight off the tee, then that is obviously best. It is hard to see a winner outside the really great drivers of the golf ball.

Otherwise, driving accuracy would be the preference for our Open Championship picks. Preference is given to long drivers comfortable using iron off the tee when strategically appropriate. Many holes require the player to draw the golf ball so this should also be noted. As always, approach will be a factor. Lesser weighting is given to around the green and putting than those two factors.

Short game is obviously imperative in links golf, so these aren’t discounted entirely. This is given many around the green shots are subject to a little luck where the ball lands in the bunker, lessening some of the around the green skill. With putting, the slower than normal greens provide a moderately easier test.

Course Comps for Royal Liverpool

Hoylake provides a very different test off the tee than last year’s host at the Old Course at St Andrews. That course features huge 100 yard wide fairways and nothing to penal in terms of hazards when driving. A much better comparison can be found at the 2019 Open Championship host Portrush. Visually they are much a like, but they also both have a draw preference to their layout.

A somewhat obscure comparison can be made between the Qatar Masters host, Doha Golf Club. That tournament has thrown out a number of Open Championship winners or likely contenders. That includes Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Henrik Stenson, and Paul Lawrie. The course is a Kyle Phillips design, the same designer of Kingsbarns. That course features in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation, another solid form guide to The Open Championship picks.

For the PGA Tour players, the difficulty comes that they really don’t have any links courses in the USA. Some parallels can be extracted through correlation. First, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National have provided similar names to the prior Open Championship leaderboards hosted here in 2006 and 2014. They ask similar questions in different ways. The Players requires driving accuracy off the tee with heavy penalty if too wayward. Augusta National requires a strong driver, with excellent approach and around the green play.

Finally, The Honda Classic host PGA National is a great look. Padraig Harrington is a two time champion both at The Open Championship and there. McIlroy, Els, Scott, and Rickie Fowler also dot both the leaderboards there and are either Open Championship winners or runner ups. Any PGA Tour players who have played somewhat well in Scottish Open is a nice bonus for The Open Championship picks.

Weather

Foremost when considering the weather, you should note the unique format at The Open Championship. It is tradition that all players start on the 1st tee. As such, tee times cover a huge range from the early first sunlight hours of 6:35am through to those finishing in twilight at 4:16pm.

This presents a unique question for weather. Typically, coastal areas experience increased wind levels from midday through to late afternoon. This though does tend to fade as it enters evening. The main cause for this is the colder air over the seas moves towards the warmer air over land as it heats up, rises, and creates a low pressure area for the winds to advance.

This rings true across both Thursday and Friday. Of the first two days, Friday looks to be the windier of the two. Rain also looks to be a factor and consistent across the tournament.

Preference is given to those with a very early tee time Friday, which should present the best conditions of that day. Simply though, the key is to not find a golfer stuck in the middle ground for our Open Championship picks. I want golfers who get to take advantage of at least one decent true morning start. Those very late in the day may experience a small benefit too. The risk is ending up stuck with a late morning tee time, when winds are already picking up, and then ending up in the afternoon the next day. This should be avoided wherever possible.

151st The Open Championship Picks

Headline Picks

Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds) with 25% Bet Boost

Shane Lowry
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Max Homa
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Adam Scott
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Ryan Fox
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +335 (Unibet)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1689788095069-adc9-920?id=63fbd158-d2f7-427a-8852-862667446fda”]

Long-Shot Bombs

Note that, as per the Scottish Open, I like to include some long-shot bombs. This comes due to the potential volatility inherent in links golf, presenting opportunities further down the board at inflated prices. This is combined along with the specialist nature that players can develop specific to links courses. You’ll see that the win stake on these is heavily reduced, with the main focus on obtaining exposure in Top 20 and Top 40 markets.

Matthew Jordan
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +175

Kurt Kitayama
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Alex Noren – Your 151st Open Championship Best Long-Shot Bomb
0.25pt E/W +25000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
3.5pt Top 40 +230 (TAB)

Ewen Ferguson
0.25pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (Bet365)

Victor Perez
0.25pt E/W +35000 (Unibet with 7 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +750 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (TAB)

Matt Wallace
0.25pt E/W +40000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +900 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +320 (TAB)

Matthew Southgate
0.25pt E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (William Hill)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +300 (Bet365)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1689788884589-adc9-136?id=c7dca0c6-4471-4b0b-abe5-1615eb7f10a4″]

Player Profiles for The Open Championship Picks

Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite

Cases can be made for all of Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Cam Smith, and Koepka. The fact is that, if anything, they are likely priced very correctly in the market and often below fair odds. This is a volatile tournament and fading the favourites is something we almost just have to do. There is little in the way of value there.

Although somewhat disappointed to miss the opening 30/1 which we liked, I’m still happy to side with Cantlay at the top of the board. The 22/1 on offer can be inflated by 25% with Bet365, which I recommend doing if you have access to that bookmaker.

Look, I know what you’re thinking. Cantlay sucks in majors. I get it. The question comes, do we simply think Cantlay will never win a major? I’m not convinced that will be the case when his career is all said and done. What should also be noted is he is now on a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 14th or better in majors. A good start is imperative to his chances of success, something he can hopefully obtain with a morning tee time Thursday.

Cantlay is one of the strongest drivers in the game. Over the past 6 months, he is the 12th in this field for driving accuracy despite being long off the tee. That jumps to 7th if looking at the last 3 months. Further, he is leader for par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour, a stat he also led in 2022. He has already shown an aptitude for links golf with finishes of 8th and 12th in the Open previously. I expect him to be in the mix come Sunday. Here’s hoping he can then shut the door and silence the critics.

Shane Lowry

Lowry is once again quietly putting together an impressive season. He is one of a small smattering of golfers who have finished in the Top 20 in every major for 2023. That includes 16th and 3rd at The Masters, which should be somewhat correlated to here.

Beyond the obvious correlations from being The Open winner at Portrush, one of the better past courses for guidance here, he has a great record at other comp courses. This includes finishes of 2nd and 5th at the Honda Classic for the past two years and 3 finishes of 16th or better at The Players.

Last week’s Scottish Open was eye catching given a large spike in his short game performance. Typically the weakest element of his game, he wound up 12th despite not possessing his best approach week. A return to normality with his ball striking numbers will see him go close here if he putts even half as well as he did in Scotland.

Max Homa

Look, I know what you’re thinking. Homa sucks in majors. I get it. Much like Cantlay though, I suspect we will see Homa as a major champion at some point in his career and The Open Championship seems to fit well.

Homa has impressed recently at The Players, with finishes of 6th an 13th at his last two appearances. That course rewards both long and straight drivers of the ball, which Homa possesses in spades. Homa’s victories have often come in tough conditions, particularly when it is raining. His wins at the Fortinet Championship and Wells Fargo Championship come to mind. Both were wet tournaments, but also on courses favouring accuracy off the tee. All of his 8 victories bar one have come at scores from -8 to -16. With likely winning score here likely to be in the -12 to -15 range, that fits right in his pocket.

As the 8th best golfer in the world, we are getting an inflated price at 50/1 here. An avid fan of golf history, he is well aware of the special place The Open holds in the world of golf. He would make for a worthy champion.

Adam Scott

We were on Adam Scott last week, who missed the cut right on the number. That may not end up a bad thing, given the volatile winds over the weekend and very early starts that ensued. If not in contention, he was likely best to pack up and head down to Hoylake a little in advance.

He arrives at a course where he finished 8th and 5th in the prior to renditions hosted at Royal Liverpool. Further building to his links (pun unintended) are his two wins at the Qatar Masters and a win at the Honda Classic. Alongside those impeccable credentials are a multitude of top 20s at The Players and a green jacket. Scott could well be the veteran who pops up here for a major win towards the end of a stellar career.

Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value

Conners quietly went about building a decent links warm-up last week with a 19th placed finished at the Scottish Open. We also saw a large increase in driving accuracy but, most notably for Conners, a good week putting.

Conners is long and straight off the tee, rankings 11th in SG:OTT over the last 3, 6, and 12 months and 8th if looking over 2 years. 15th and 28th at the past two Opens suggest he isn’t completely foreign to links golf. He also boasts a great record at Augusta National with a run of 6th, 8th, and 10th at The Masters between 2020-2022. 12th at the PGA Championship is also not the worst guide, with a course that played very well but featured incredibly penal rough if straying a couple yards off the fairway. Should he find a half decent putter, he is a shout to surprise a few here.

Ryan Fox

Patriotism aside, Ryan Fox could well be a sneaky look to sneak another claret jug for New Zealand here. Fox has had a sterling few years as his game continues to grow. He continued that with a 12th place finish last week at the Scottish Open, where he has a previous 4th in 2017.

Not adverse to windy conditions, Foxy has already displayed some of his best on links courses. We saw that in his most notable victory, winning the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links in sometimes torrid conditions. He also surprised for a 16th at the 2019 Open at Portrush. That came well before the levels we see him playing at now and broke a run of 7 consecutive missed cuts. He also follows those performances at other courses where he is equally happy using a 2 iron off the tree. The Soudal Open comes to mind, where he finished 2nd on a very narrow test hindered when his 2 iron shaft actually cracked on the final day.

He also owns the course record at his home course, Te Arai Links, which he broke in February this year. He shot a 60 there: https://www.europeantour.com/dpworld-tour/news/articles/detail/ryan-fox-breaks-course-record-at-te-arai-links-on-trip-back-home/

If you want to look at similarities, simply go and look at some of the photos of that beautiful piece of land.

I asked in my recent interview with Ryan Fox about what it is about links golf suits his game so well. He pointed to the fact he prefers tests where he feels he doesn’t have to make birdie every hole. That more strategic, methodical approach gives me faith he will put the driver away when needed. When he gets to the par 5s and par 4s, he can let the big dog eat and attack some of those longer holes. Go well Foxy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzUk1Qjj6so&t=339s

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 151st The Open Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

John Deere Classic Picks and Advice: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC Deere Run hosts our John Deere Classic picks

What a year we are having! Daniel Hillier secured yet another victory from our selections over on the DP World Tour. The 80/1 long-shot secured the British Masters with a stunning final 9 holes, including going eagle-birdie-eagle before a clutch par putt on the 18th. Let’s look for another winner with our John Deere Classic picks.

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1675531476836974597?s=20

Hillier made an obvious selection. He had finished 3rd and 5th in two of his three most recent appearances. Realistically, he was in a position to win one if not both of those tournaments. But, the secret sauce actually came from a 2021 Challenge Tour event. The 2021 British Challenge was hosted on the same course at The Belfry. Obviously, it was an easier setup than the DP World Tour tournaments played at the same venue. Hillier finished 14th that week. However, Hillier was the best player in the field over the last three rounds. Likely this was missed by many, but not when we are @DeepDiveGolf!

Course Analysis for our John Deere Classic Picks

TPC Deere Run plays host to this event, as it has since 2000. This short 7,289 yard par-71 completes what should really be coined the wedge, putting contest, birdie-fest swing. A low winning score of between -20 to -25 is likely this week.

The course offers up very little defense. A quick peruse through past leaderboards makes clear driving accuracy is at a premium here for our John Deere Classic picks. The 2017 edition, battled between DeChambeau and Rodgers, provides the sole exception. Rough is reasonably thick at 4 inches, although fairways are not that narrow. Players simply need to be providing themselves a multitude of birdie looks here from within 15 feet. That is best achieved through finding the short grass off the tee. It is an essential element to your John Deere Classic picks.

There will be a disproportionate number of shots between 50-100 yards and, particularly, 100-150 yards. This been the same recipe as seen recently at the RBC Canadian Open, Travelers Championship, and Rocket Mortgage Classic. Over 60% of shots are from 100-200 yards. This is further emphasized given the majority of approach shots over 200 yards will occur on the par 5s and two of the par 3s being over 200 yards.

I will be putting less weighting on putting here than other models. The greens are relatively simple and true, being bentgrass. There is little in the way of undulations or complicated reading here. I’d much rather narrow the focus on fairway finders who will be giving themselves plenty of birdie looks due to elite wedge play.

Key metrics: Driving accuracy, Approach 100-150 yards, Approach 50-100 yards.

Course Comps for TPC Deere Run

Chiefly, a number of recent courses are used as guidance for your John Deere Classic picks. Detroit Golf Club, TPC River Highlands, and Oakdale Golf & Country Club all emphasize accuracy and a disproportionate number of wedge shots. They also provide bentgrass within their green complexes. These courses balance a nice combination of recent form as well as being correlated to what we expect this week.

Other correlations for John Deere Classic picks are at Waialae Golf Club, Sedgefield Country Club, and the American Express tournament. All emphasize driving accuracy and a high number of wedge shots. Therefore, as Jon Rahm infamously described one of the aforementioned, they become a bit of a putting contest.

Weather

There appear to be few pitfalls in the weather this week. Winds look relatively consistent across both Thursday and Friday and any potential weather edge does appear minimal.

There is a small chance of some raining on Wednesday evening. Certainly, this may lead to a softening of conditions for those out Thursday morning. However, the advantage should be minimal. Therefore, this does not factor into our John Deere Classic picks. However, I would provide a small uptick for any lower priced options you are considering in DFS who are going out early in round 1.

John Deere Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Russell Henley – Your John Deere Classic Picks favourite
3pts E/W +1600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk
2.5pts E/W +3000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Stephan Jaeger
2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Alex Smalley
2pts E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Brendon Todd
1pt E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (TAB)

David Lipsky
1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And 2pts
Top 20 +450 (Bet365)

Zac Blair
0.5pts +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 (Bet365)
And
2pts Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Satoshi Kodaira – Your John Deere Classic Picks best value
0.5pts +35000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1200 (Unibet)
And
2pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365)

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 John Deere Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks and Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Detroit Golf Club hosts our Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

It looked for the first two days of The Travelers Championship as we were well on track for the three-peat. Following winners of Nick Taylor 66/1 and Wyndham Clark 80/1, Denny McCarthy led across the first two rounds. Unfortunately, a rare cold putter in the 3rd round saw him fall out of contention. He still collected a full place payout for us along with the Top 20 money to keep the ball rolling. It looks like another birdie fest is instore for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Course Analysis

Nestled in the heart of Detroit lies the magnificent Detroit Golf Club, a captivating haven for golfers seeking a true test of their skills. With its meticulously manicured fairways, undulating greens, and strategic bunkering, this Donald Ross masterpiece offers an ideal setting for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Many people will simply look at the list of winners and believe this is a bombers paradise. Seeing names such as Tony Finau, Cam Davis, and Bryson DeChambeau battling Matthew Wolff could lead some to believe driving distance is essential here. That can be a fallacy many fall into. I prefer taking a much more nuanced approach.

We have also seen many shorter but accurate hitters also find success here. Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt, and J.J. Spaun top the list of the best course history here for those with more than 12 rounds played despite being shorter hitters.

What these players do share in common is they are consistently gaining strokes on approach from 50-150 yards. More than 50% of shots will occur from this range. This is significant, especially when you account for Par 3s and Par 5s that are always naturally going to demand longer irons no matter which course you play.

Comp Courses

Sedgefield Country Club is another Donald Ross design featuring tree lined fairways and a reputation as a birdie fest. There are correlating links between the The American Express, not just through Rahm’s infamous putting contest remark but the disproportionate number of wedge shots required there.

Recent results at The Travelers Championship and this year’s Canadian Open host Oakdale Golf and Country Club are noted. These tournaments both feature a large number of wedge shots, tree lined fairways, and greens featuring a bentgrass/poa annua mix. They provide a nice balance between correlated metrics and recent form arriving here for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Weather for our Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

There does appear to be a minor weather edge developing for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks. Golfers fortunate enough to tee off on Thursday morning and continue their second round on Friday afternoon might benefit from calmer conditions, as the forecast suggests a light breeze and moderate temperatures during these periods. Potential thunderstorms Friday afternoon could delay play. Therefore, this would see those golfers get to finish their rounds under calm conditions Saturday morning. This favorable weather window could potentially yield lower scores and provide an advantage for those players.

In contrast, competitors teeing off on Thursday afternoon and continuing their second round on Friday morning might encounter slightly more challenging conditions. The forecast indicates an increase in wind speeds and possible showers during these timeframes.

We predict the scoring advantage to fall in the range of 0.50-0.75 strokes on average. This is likely insufficient to take me off premium players like Hideki Matsuyama. However, it is worthy on noting for lower tier options that the preference should be for them to come from the perceived better weather draw.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Hideki Matsuyama – Your Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk
2pt E/W +5000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Stephan Jaeger
2pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Nicolai Hojgaard
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (William Hill/TAB)

Mark Hubbard
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (William Hill/TAB)

Joseph Bramlett – Your Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Best Value
1.5pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +400 (Bet365)

David Lipsky
0.5pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +230 (Bet365)

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Travelers Championship Picks & Advice: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC River Highlands host this week for our Travelers Championship Picks

Back-to-back winners! What a US Open we had, most notably selecting Wyndham Clark available in some markets as long as 80/1. This marked our second win in as many weeks, having also tipped Nick Taylor at 66/1 in the RBC Canadian Open. Likewise beyond Clark, we had additional winners from the week. We selected both Xander and Rickie in the First-Round leader market at 35/1 and 66/1 respectively. Additionally, Fowler secured us a full place payout and Xander a reduced place payout in 10th. Patrick Rodgers also locked in a Top 40 win for us, in an outstanding week of tipping! This now takes our PGA Tour record in 2023 to a whopping +718 units and a return on investment of 80%. However, there is no rest for the wicked as we go for a threepeat with our Travelers Championship Picks!

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1671147586655522817?s=20

Course Analysis for our Travelers Championship Picks

TPC River Highlands plays host this week. The course has hosted this tournament in Cromwell, Connecticut since 1984. As such, we have a wealth of data to go on here and should be able to really narrow our player pool as a result.

Firstly, this provides quite a different test to what we have seen recently. TPC River Highlands is a narrow course with heavy rough and tree-lined fairways. It is one of the most correlated courses between driving accuracy and predicting future success.

Additionally, we will see a disproportionate number of shots under 150 yards this week. At just 6,852 yard par 70, this makes logical sense. Greens are again bentgrass overseeded with poa annua, so recent putting performance should be a fair indicator of how players will handle themselves on these surfaces.

Obviously, the recipe to success here has been relatively simple. Find the fairway, hit a good wedge shot, and make the putt. Scoring typically sits in the -15 to -20 range for the winner. We expect little different this week.

Course Comps to TPC River Highlands

Unsurprisingly, other courses with heavy weighting to driving accuracy and tree lined fairways display a good correlation to TPC River Highlands. We can also look to other Pete Dye designs for guidance, as these do all tend to play quite similar.

For our Travelers Championship picks, courses like Sedgefield and TPC Sawgrass provide obvious similarities. Certainly TPC Potomac provides very similar metrics, as does Austin Country Club. Obviously, the latter being a little more difficult being the host of the WGC Matchplay Championship.

Finally, the recent RBC Canadian Open course Oakdale Golf and Country Club looks very similar. That course featured thick rough, lots of wedge shots, and bentgrass putting surfaces. Obviously, this ticks the box nicely on both a course comp and, additionally, some signs of recent form.

Weather for our Travelers Championship Picks

There does appear to be a decent weather edge developing for our Travelers Championship Picks. Currently, Thursday will have light rain throughout the day. Winds should be steady between 6-9 mph all day. Gusts will increase from 16-18mph in the morning to 20-22 mph in the afternoon.

Friday looks to be where any edge may develop. Rain looks likely overnight and Friday AM winds look very calm. This should see Friday AM provide some of the best scoring conditions. Certainly, winds are forecast to increase as they day goes on. Winds should peak around midday, with prevailing winds at 12-14mph and gusts up to 23-27mph.

We predict the weather edge will finish up between 0.5-0.75 strokes on average. Obviously, this is not insignificant. However, it should be noted there is a small chance of fog and thunderstorms developing Friday AM.

Certainly for purposes of DFS, I would suggest a construction of 30% Thursday PM/Friday AM with 10% the contrarian Thursday AM/Friday PM and the remaining 60% of your lineups being mixed.

Travelers Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Tom Kim
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Russell Henley – Your Travelers Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Denny McCarthy
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Aaron Rai
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (Bet365)

Andrew Putnam
0.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +475 (Bet365)

Mark Hubbard – Your Travelers Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +200 (Bet365)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
0.5pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

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Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 Travelers Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: To celebrate our BIG win at the US Open and RBC Canadian Open, we are giving away a FREE one month trial for WinDaily Gold Membership! This is a LIMITED offer, so get in quick!

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA

U.S. Open Picks & Advice: All you need to know about the 123rd U.S. Open

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

How does Los Angeles Country Club play? The exclusive LACC plays host to our US Open Picks.

What a week at the RBC Canadian Open! Nick Taylor was included in our selections at 66/1, causing EPIC celebrations within the WinDaily Sports Discord akin to the 18th green celebrations on course. The dramatic victory and breaking of 60+ years of hoodoo managed to overshadow the PIF news and the PGA/LIV Golf merger momentarily. There is no rest though, as it is another big week with our US Open picks!

Unlike the drought of Canadian citizens winning their national open, the 66/1 win was simply a continuation of another fantastic year for our selections. We rarely give out match-up plays. However, we saw an edge in Round 4 and we went 6/6 for our selections. This follows the same at the PGA Championship, when we last gave out some Round 4 match-ups and duly went 4/4. We have now shown a return on investment in 2023 of +69% and are up +562.57 units. Profit is already guaranteed in 2023 for those who have followed!

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1669011871264034816?s=20

Los Angeles Country Club plays host to the 123rd US Open. This is the first time LA have hosted a US Open since 1940 and the inaugural US Open at this course. In fact, there have been no professional events held at this exclusive club. There have been amateur events, namely a Pac-12 Championship and Walker Cup, but this course will play so different to those events I think any perceived information from those tournaments can be largely discarded. Read on to find what we believe are the key metrics to target this week.

Los Angeles Country Club Course Analysis

The first note is this course, on paper, plays very long. A 7,421 yard would not be uncommon for a par 72. We instead find a par 70, with 5 par 3s and just 3 par 5s. However, I do think the distance needs to come with a few caveats.

Chiefly, the conditions are extremely firm and fast. This will enhance rollout, especially for those with a lower ball-flight. Where I do see driving distance being an asset is the large number of approach shots over 200+ yards. Naturally, those with increased driving distance tend to have higher clubhead speed and therefore can use a higher loft on a long approach shot. Additionally, with some pretty mean and thick rough this week. A semblance of strength will be beneficial for your US Open picks digging the ball out after missed fairways and greens.

https://twitter.com/BradFaxon/status/1668806642765365249?s=20

Much has been made of how wide these fairways are. Again, I think this requires a little more of a deep dive. Fairways are heavily sloped in many instances. In addition to the firm and fast conditions, they will play a lot narrower than on first sight.

With multiple long par 3s and some big par 4/5s, long iron approach will be imperative to success. Again, do note that of the long par 3s some significant elevation changes do occur. The 280 yard 7th hole has an exposed front and will allow players to roll the ball up to the green. The 290+ yard 11th par 3 is also severely downhill.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcIcBilkJ9k&t=614s

Finally, these greens will be hard to hold. The course is as close to “links” like in nature that you may ever find at the US Open. The ability to rebound from bogeys and save par will be essential for our US Open picks.

What type of golfer suits LACC?

Overall, it looks that this will provide a stern all round examination of a golfer’s game. That starts from SG: OTT. Certainly, I do expect a situation where driving distance take precedence. But, ideally, this also comes with a modicum of accuracy. I believe an average driving distance of at least 295 yards is essential.

I have leaned heavily on long approach for the US Open picks this week. We may even see players resorting to irons and fairways woods to try hold these fairways in certain spots. This will further emphasize the need for elite long iron approach.

Around the green receives the weakest ranking of all the mainstream SG metrics. There will be some luck involved, with the bermudagrass rough around the greens so thick. Also, the long grass takes some of the skill out of such chips. However, I do believe bunker play could be a factor and there are some runoff areas which will produce tight lies.

Finally, I do weight putting a little higher than usual for our US Open picks. Particularly, this is true for bentgrass putting. Inevitably, every player will need to make their share of putts. Birdie opportunities will need to be taken; pars will need to be saved.

Course Comps for our US Open Picks

From what we have been able to discern from the information available, this course does look to be quite a unique test for our US Open picks.

Elements to Augusta National are observed. There is some more width of the tee than we would usually see at a US Open venue, as well as bentgrass greens. Naturally, with the sloped fairways I can see parallels and that rings true for the Plantation Course at Kapalua as well. Plantation also requires a disproportionate number of shots over 200+ yards and under 100 yards. I like that combination, as I believe on top of the long approach shots some closer iron shots may be required if finding trouble off-the-tee.

Other US Open venues of Shinnecock, Chambers Bay, and Erin Hills. Neighbouring Riviera Country Club is also a George Thomas design and holds some parallels.

Finally, I think Scottish Open host the Renaissance Club may be a sneaky parallel. The winning score here has been -7 and -11 previously depending on setup and wind. Although in a links style, it is not a true links course. Exposed and rugged, with undulating fairways and firm conditions, the course appears to strike some similarities to LACC.

Weather for our US Open Picks

The weather still looks to be developing this week and I will provide a final update Wednesday evening in the WinDaily Sports Discord.

Overall, conditions promise to present low humidity and warm temperatures. The course should take little time to crisp up and play very firm and fast in the afternoons particularly.

Both Thursday and Friday currently look to hold a similar outlook with very calm conditions in the morning and winds picking up in the afternoon. The morning should also prevent mildly softer conditions, before the greens firm up in the combination of sun, low humidity, and breeze. As it stands, there looks to be slightly higher and more persistent winds Friday afternoon compared to Thursday.

This pattern looks to continue into the weekend, with winds gusting up to 20-25mph in the afternoons.

Given the above course analysis and predicted weather, I’m projecting a typical US Open winning score of -6 to -9 for our US Open Picks.

US Open Picks

We have 6 headline selections this week. I’ve also included 5 longshot bombs to consider. However, you’ll notice a heavily reduced win stake. The win stake is mainly to take advantage of the generous place terms, and emphasis is on the Top 20/40 options. Selections are weighted accordingly in the below suggested staking.

Headliners: Suggested Staking

Patrick Cantlay
4pts E/W +1400 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Xander Schauffele – Your US Open Picks Favourite Headliner
2.5pts E/W +1800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Tony Finau
2.5pts E/W +2800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Justin Rose
2pts E/W +3500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Rickie Fowler – Your US Open Picks Best Value Headliner
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Wyndham Clark
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

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Longshot Bombs: Suggested Staking

Ryan Fox – Your US Open Picks Favourite Longshot Bomb
1pt E/W +12500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +550 (TAB)

Kurt Kitayama
0.25pts E/W +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +250 (TAB)

Patrick Rodgers
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +170 (Bet365)

Adam Schenk – Your US Open Picks Best Value Longshot Bomb
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

Sepp Straka
0.25pts E/W +25000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

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Summary

Thank you reading our 2023 US Open picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: To celebrate our BIG win at the RBC Canadian Open, we are giving away a FREE one month trial for WinDaily Gold Membership! This is a LIMITED offer, so get in quick!

Includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

Canadian Open Picks & Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Oakdale Golf & Country Club plays host for our Canadian Open Picks

You’d be forgiven if the RBC Canadian Open has become second fiddle for you this week to other matters. Tuesday saw the unexpected bombshell announcement that the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, and PIF LIV Golf merger would be going ahead. That is arguably the biggest news story the golfing world has ever encountered, with substantial ramifications to the entire structure of global professional golf. I’ll mention the merger briefly below, but there is still a tournament this week so make sure to note our Canadian Open picks.

You have to feel for the Canadian Open and it’s title sponsor RBC, who last year faced news stories with the very first LIV Golf event running concurrently to the 2022 tournament. Although, as they say, any news is good news and you could argue the global attention of even those with just a mild interest in the game is all focused in on a small plot of land 1 hour drive north of downtown Toronto.

What does the PGA Tour and PIF LIV Golf Merger mean?

Before we enter into our Canadian Open picks, I will touch on the recent announcement. It is worth bearing in mind, this is still early int he process and we have very little information of the exact nature of the deal. We understand that the DP World Tour and PGA Tour will form a new for-profit commercial entity including PIF as a minority shareholder. The majority financial interest and board members will remain with the PGA Tour. Jay Monahan somehow manages to find himself as seemingly CEO of all of men’s golf, although it remains to be seen whether aggrieved PGA Tour players force him out. The role of Chairman of the board will be fulfilled by PIF’s Yasir Al-Rumayyan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSzBHI5wcPI&t=1218s

What might happen from here?

Seemingly, LIV Golf will be no longer. Certainly that is a good thing, seeing the best players all playing in relatively the same place. Firstly, we understand there will remain a team aspect to the structure. Entering the realm of speculation, I suspect the PGA Tour and DP World Tour schedules will remain relatively unaffected (albeit perhaps with more lucrative purses). The new created profit making entity may then oversee a team franchise structure. Therefore, my guess is this will run concurrent to the tour as a separate competition with events not conflicting with some of the flagship events of either tour.

Basically, this seems the cleanest solution. Although the team concept may work if structured correctly, integration of an individual and team leaderboard running simultaneously was messy and confusing. A separate team entity, offering franchise opportunities to sponsors, is significantly marketable. We may even see aspects from cricket and the Indian Premier League, where an auction is run at the beginning of the season to purchase players who have opted in.

More will be revealed, but let’s get into our Canadian Open picks!

Course Analysis for our Canadian Open Picks

Oakdale Golf & Country Club plays host to our Canadian Open picks. This will be the first time the course has held the Canadian Open and will appear again on the rotation schedule in 2026.

The course is a relatively short par-72 7,264 yards. Particularly, there is a somewhat atypical arrangement of 3 par 3s and par 5s. Obviously, it may be this short distance that has lead to many in the industry believing this will be a birdie fest. However, I think this will play more difficult than many believe.

The course is tree lined with narrow fairways of average of 25 yards. Additionally, there are a multitude of elevation changes and it will not be uncommon for golfers to find an approach shot with the ball wither above or below their feet. With the sloped fairways and hanging trees, it will matter not just in finding the fairway but which part of the fairway you find.

Rough has been grown out to 4in and will not be cut again during the tournament. With warm and sunny weather predicted, the rough could be pushing 6in come Sunday. Given the course distance and the par 5s, there will be a disproportionate number of shots between 75-150 yards.

Given the above my focus will be on driving accuracy, approach <150 yards, with additional benefit to those with an excellent short-game.

You can find a course flyover here.

Comp Courses and Weather for our Canadian Open Picks

We can look to other short and positional courses as a guide this week. Obviously, Harbour Town immediately comes to mind as do Sedgefield, Sea Island GC, Waialae Country Club, Colonial Country Club and Austin Country Club. Innisbrook may draw some parallels, not from the approach distance but instead the importance of driving accuracy and a strong OTT game.

As forecasts currently stand, there is no discernible weather edge. Winds look moderate across the first two days. This is also consistent throughout the day. Thursday AM should play the softest and calmest of conditions. However, it is hard to argue this provides a significant edge worthy of acting upon.

You can find the latest weather forecasts here.

Canadian Open Picks

Suggested Staking

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Matt Kuchar – Your Canadian Open Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +4100 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Nick Taylor
2pts E/W +6600 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adam Svensson
2pts E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

David Lipsky
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350

Mark Hubbard
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +400

Ben Martin
1pt E/W +12500 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +400

Carson Young – Your Canadian Open Picks Best Value
0.5pts E/W +17000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 40 +175

Summary

Thank you reading our 2023 Canadian Open picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use the promo code WINBIG here and you’ll receive a no obligation one week FREE trial plus just $5.99 per week for access to all sports.
Includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!