What a week at the RBC Canadian Open! Nick Taylor was included in our selections at 66/1, causing EPIC celebrations within the WinDaily Sports Discord akin to the 18th green celebrations on course. The dramatic victory and breaking of 60+ years of hoodoo managed to overshadow the PIF news and the PGA/LIV Golf merger momentarily. There is no rest though, as it is another big week with our US Open picks!
Unlike the drought of Canadian citizens winning their national open, the 66/1 win was simply a continuation of another fantastic year for our selections. We rarely give out match-up plays. However, we saw an edge in Round 4 and we went 6/6 for our selections. This follows the same at the PGA Championship, when we last gave out some Round 4 match-ups and duly went 4/4. We have now shown a return on investment in 2023 of +69% and are up +562.57 units. Profit is already guaranteed in 2023 for those who have followed!
Los Angeles Country Club plays host to the 123rd US Open. This is the first time LA have hosted a US Open since 1940 and the inaugural US Open at this course. In fact, there have been no professional events held at this exclusive club. There have been amateur events, namely a Pac-12 Championship and Walker Cup, but this course will play so different to those events I think any perceived information from those tournaments can be largely discarded. Read on to find what we believe are the key metrics to target this week.
The first note is this course, on paper, plays very long. A 7,421 yard would not be uncommon for a par 72. We instead find a par 70, with 5 par 3s and just 3 par 5s. However, I do think the distance needs to come with a few caveats.
Chiefly, the conditions are extremely firm and fast. This will enhance rollout, especially for those with a lower ball-flight. Where I do see driving distance being an asset is the large number of approach shots over 200+ yards. Naturally, those with increased driving distance tend to have higher clubhead speed and therefore can use a higher loft on a long approach shot. Additionally, with some pretty mean and thick rough this week. A semblance of strength will be beneficial for your US Open picks digging the ball out after missed fairways and greens.
Much has been made of how wide these fairways are. Again, I think this requires a little more of a deep dive. Fairways are heavily sloped in many instances. In addition to the firm and fast conditions, they will play a lot narrower than on first sight.
With multiple long par 3s and some big par 4/5s, long iron approach will be imperative to success. Again, do note that of the long par 3s some significant elevation changes do occur. The 280 yard 7th hole has an exposed front and will allow players to roll the ball up to the green. The 290+ yard 11th par 3 is also severely downhill.
Finally, these greens will be hard to hold. The course is as close to “links” like in nature that you may ever find at the US Open. The ability to rebound from bogeys and save par will be essential for our US Open picks.
Overall, it looks that this will provide a stern all round examination of a golfer’s game. That starts from SG: OTT. Certainly, I do expect a situation where driving distance take precedence. But, ideally, this also comes with a modicum of accuracy. I believe an average driving distance of at least 295 yards is essential.
I have leaned heavily on long approach for the US Open picks this week. We may even see players resorting to irons and fairways woods to try hold these fairways in certain spots. This will further emphasize the need for elite long iron approach.
Around the green receives the weakest ranking of all the mainstream SG metrics. There will be some luck involved, with the bermudagrass rough around the greens so thick. Also, the long grass takes some of the skill out of such chips. However, I do believe bunker play could be a factor and there are some runoff areas which will produce tight lies.
Finally, I do weight putting a little higher than usual for our US Open picks. Particularly, this is true for bentgrass putting. Inevitably, every player will need to make their share of putts. Birdie opportunities will need to be taken; pars will need to be saved.
From what we have been able to discern from the information available, this course does look to be quite a unique test for our US Open picks.
Elements to Augusta National are observed. There is some more width of the tee than we would usually see at a US Open venue, as well as bentgrass greens. Naturally, with the sloped fairways I can see parallels and that rings true for the Plantation Course at Kapalua as well. Plantation also requires a disproportionate number of shots over 200+ yards and under 100 yards. I like that combination, as I believe on top of the long approach shots some closer iron shots may be required if finding trouble off-the-tee.
Other US Open venues of Shinnecock, Chambers Bay, and Erin Hills. Neighbouring Riviera Country Club is also a George Thomas design and holds some parallels.
Finally, I think Scottish Open host the Renaissance Club may be a sneaky parallel. The winning score here has been -7 and -11 previously depending on setup and wind. Although in a links style, it is not a true links course. Exposed and rugged, with undulating fairways and firm conditions, the course appears to strike some similarities to LACC.
The weather still looks to be developing this week and I will provide a final update Wednesday evening in the WinDaily Sports Discord.
Overall, conditions promise to present low humidity and warm temperatures. The course should take little time to crisp up and play very firm and fast in the afternoons particularly.
Both Thursday and Friday currently look to hold a similar outlook with very calm conditions in the morning and winds picking up in the afternoon. The morning should also prevent mildly softer conditions, before the greens firm up in the combination of sun, low humidity, and breeze. As it stands, there looks to be slightly higher and more persistent winds Friday afternoon compared to Thursday.
This pattern looks to continue into the weekend, with winds gusting up to 20-25mph in the afternoons.
Given the above course analysis and predicted weather, I’m projecting a typical US Open winning score of -6 to -9 for our US Open Picks.
We have 6 headline selections this week. I’ve also included 5 longshot bombs to consider. However, you’ll notice a heavily reduced win stake. The win stake is mainly to take advantage of the generous place terms, and emphasis is on the Top 20/40 options. Selections are weighted accordingly in the below suggested staking.
Patrick Cantlay
4pts E/W +1400 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Xander Schauffele – Your US Open Picks Favourite Headliner
2.5pts E/W +1800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Tony Finau
2.5pts E/W +2800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Justin Rose
2pts E/W +3500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Rickie Fowler – Your US Open Picks Best Value Headliner
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Wyndham Clark
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1686674490596-adc9-226?id=049229b1-526f-4653-9b80-e1dbbbe058b2″]
Ryan Fox – Your US Open Picks Favourite Longshot Bomb
1pt E/W +12500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +550 (TAB)
Kurt Kitayama
0.25pts E/W +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +250 (TAB)
Patrick Rodgers
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +170 (Bet365)
Adam Schenk – Your US Open Picks Best Value Longshot Bomb
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)
Sepp Straka
0.25pts E/W +25000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1686675020434-adc9-981?id=bb07915b-4994-4c09-bd58-85c4c1cfc1b9″]
Thank you reading our 2023 US Open picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!
PROMO: To celebrate our BIG win at the RBC Canadian Open, we are giving away a FREE one month trial for WinDaily Gold Membership! This is a LIMITED offer, so get in quick!
Includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!
You’d be forgiven if the RBC Canadian Open has become second fiddle for you this week to other matters. Tuesday saw the unexpected bombshell announcement that the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, and PIF LIV Golf merger would be going ahead. That is arguably the biggest news story the golfing world has ever encountered, with substantial ramifications to the entire structure of global professional golf. I’ll mention the merger briefly below, but there is still a tournament this week so make sure to note our Canadian Open picks.
You have to feel for the Canadian Open and it’s title sponsor RBC, who last year faced news stories with the very first LIV Golf event running concurrently to the 2022 tournament. Although, as they say, any news is good news and you could argue the global attention of even those with just a mild interest in the game is all focused in on a small plot of land 1 hour drive north of downtown Toronto.
Before we enter into our Canadian Open picks, I will touch on the recent announcement. It is worth bearing in mind, this is still early int he process and we have very little information of the exact nature of the deal. We understand that the DP World Tour and PGA Tour will form a new for-profit commercial entity including PIF as a minority shareholder. The majority financial interest and board members will remain with the PGA Tour. Jay Monahan somehow manages to find himself as seemingly CEO of all of men’s golf, although it remains to be seen whether aggrieved PGA Tour players force him out. The role of Chairman of the board will be fulfilled by PIF’s Yasir Al-Rumayyan.
Seemingly, LIV Golf will be no longer. Certainly that is a good thing, seeing the best players all playing in relatively the same place. Firstly, we understand there will remain a team aspect to the structure. Entering the realm of speculation, I suspect the PGA Tour and DP World Tour schedules will remain relatively unaffected (albeit perhaps with more lucrative purses). The new created profit making entity may then oversee a team franchise structure. Therefore, my guess is this will run concurrent to the tour as a separate competition with events not conflicting with some of the flagship events of either tour.
Basically, this seems the cleanest solution. Although the team concept may work if structured correctly, integration of an individual and team leaderboard running simultaneously was messy and confusing. A separate team entity, offering franchise opportunities to sponsors, is significantly marketable. We may even see aspects from cricket and the Indian Premier League, where an auction is run at the beginning of the season to purchase players who have opted in.
More will be revealed, but let’s get into our Canadian Open picks!
Oakdale Golf & Country Club plays host to our Canadian Open picks. This will be the first time the course has held the Canadian Open and will appear again on the rotation schedule in 2026.
The course is a relatively short par-72 7,264 yards. Particularly, there is a somewhat atypical arrangement of 3 par 3s and par 5s. Obviously, it may be this short distance that has lead to many in the industry believing this will be a birdie fest. However, I think this will play more difficult than many believe.
The course is tree lined with narrow fairways of average of 25 yards. Additionally, there are a multitude of elevation changes and it will not be uncommon for golfers to find an approach shot with the ball wither above or below their feet. With the sloped fairways and hanging trees, it will matter not just in finding the fairway but which part of the fairway you find.
Rough has been grown out to 4in and will not be cut again during the tournament. With warm and sunny weather predicted, the rough could be pushing 6in come Sunday. Given the course distance and the par 5s, there will be a disproportionate number of shots between 75-150 yards.
Given the above my focus will be on driving accuracy, approach <150 yards, with additional benefit to those with an excellent short-game.
You can find a course flyover here.
We can look to other short and positional courses as a guide this week. Obviously, Harbour Town immediately comes to mind as do Sedgefield, Sea Island GC, Waialae Country Club, Colonial Country Club and Austin Country Club. Innisbrook may draw some parallels, not from the approach distance but instead the importance of driving accuracy and a strong OTT game.
As forecasts currently stand, there is no discernible weather edge. Winds look moderate across the first two days. This is also consistent throughout the day. Thursday AM should play the softest and calmest of conditions. However, it is hard to argue this provides a significant edge worthy of acting upon.
You can find the latest weather forecasts here.
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1686151380407-adc9-371?id=8b55d81b-93b3-41cb-9094-4bb87714a880″]
Matt Kuchar – Your Canadian Open Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +4100 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Nick Taylor
2pts E/W +6600 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Adam Svensson
2pts E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
David Lipsky
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350
Mark Hubbard
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +400
Ben Martin
1pt E/W +12500 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +400
Carson Young – Your Canadian Open Picks Best Value
0.5pts E/W +17000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 40 +175
Thank you reading our 2023 Canadian Open picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!
PROMO: Use the promo code WINBIG here and you’ll receive a no obligation one week FREE trial plus just $5.99 per week for access to all sports.
Includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!
You’d be forgiven if the RBC Canadian Open has become second fiddle for you this week to other matters. Tuesday saw the unexpected bombshell announcement that the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, and PIF LIV Golf merger would be going ahead. That is arguably the biggest news story the golfing world has ever encountered, with substantial ramifications to the entire structure of global professional golf. I’ll mention the merger briefly below, but there is still a tournament this week so make sure to note our Canadian Open picks.
You have to feel for the Canadian Open and it’s title sponsor RBC, who last year faced news stories with the very first LIV Golf event running concurrently to the 2022 tournament. Although, as they say, any news is good news and you could argue the global attention of even those with just a mild interest in the game is all focused in on a small plot of land 1 hour drive north of downtown Toronto.
Before we enter into our Canadian Open picks, I will touch on the recent announcement. It is worth bearing in mind, this is still early int he process and we have very little information of the exact nature of the deal. We understand that the DP World Tour and PGA Tour will form a new for-profit commercial entity including PIF as a minority shareholder. The majority financial interest and board members will remain with the PGA Tour. Jay Monahan somehow manages to find himself as seemingly CEO of all of men’s golf, although it remains to be seen whether aggrieved PGA Tour players force him out. The role of Chairman of the board will be fulfilled by PIF’s Yasir Al-Rumayyan.
Seemingly, LIV Golf will be no longer. Certainly that is a good thing, seeing the best players all playing in relatively the same place. Firstly, we understand there will remain a team aspect to the structure. Entering the realm of speculation, I suspect the PGA Tour and DP World Tour schedules will remain relatively unaffected (albeit perhaps with more lucrative purses). The new created profit making entity may then oversee a team franchise structure. Therefore, my guess is this will run concurrent to the tour as a separate competition with events not conflicting with some of the flagship events of either tour.
Basically, this seems the cleanest solution. Although the team concept may work if structured correctly, integration of an individual and team leaderboard running simultaneously was messy and confusing. A separate team entity, offering franchise opportunities to sponsors, is significantly marketable. We may even see aspects from cricket and the Indian Premier League, where an auction is run at the beginning of the season to purchase players who have opted in.
More will be revealed, but let’s get into our Canadian Open picks!
Oakdale Golf & Country Club plays host to our Canadian Open picks. This will be the first time the course has held the Canadian Open and will appear again on the rotation schedule in 2026.
The course is a relatively short par-72 7,264 yards. Particularly, there is a somewhat atypical arrangement of 3 par 3s and par 5s. Obviously, it may be this short distance that has lead to many in the industry believing this will be a birdie fest. However, I think this will play more difficult than many believe.
The course is tree lined with narrow fairways of average of 25 yards. Additionally, there are a multitude of elevation changes and it will not be uncommon for golfers to find an approach shot with the ball wither above or below their feet. With the sloped fairways and hanging trees, it will matter not just in finding the fairway but which part of the fairway you find.
Rough has been grown out to 4in and will not be cut again during the tournament. With warm and sunny weather predicted, the rough could be pushing 6in come Sunday. Given the course distance and the par 5s, there will be a disproportionate number of shots between 75-150 yards.
Given the above my focus will be on driving accuracy, approach <150 yards, with additional benefit to those with an excellent short-game.
You can find a course flyover here.
We can look to other short and positional courses as a guide this week. Obviously, Harbour Town immediately comes to mind as do Sedgefield, Sea Island GC, Waialae Country Club, Colonial Country Club and Austin Country Club. Innisbrook may draw some parallels, not from the approach distance but instead the importance of driving accuracy and a strong OTT game.
As forecasts currently stand, there is no discernible weather edge. Winds look moderate across the first two days. This is also consistent throughout the day. Thursday AM should play the softest and calmest of conditions. However, it is hard to argue this provides a significant edge worthy of acting upon.
You can find the latest weather forecasts here.
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1686151380407-adc9-371?id=8b55d81b-93b3-41cb-9094-4bb87714a880″]
Matt Kuchar – Your Canadian Open Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +4100 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Nick Taylor
2pts E/W +6600 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Adam Svensson
2pts E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
David Lipsky
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350
Mark Hubbard
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +400
Ben Martin
1pt E/W +12500 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +400
Carson Young – Your Canadian Open Picks Best Value
0.5pts E/W +17000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 40 +175
Thank you reading our 2023 Canadian Open picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!
PROMO: Use the promo code WINBIG here and you’ll receive a no obligation one week FREE trial plus just $5.99 per week for access to all sports.
Includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!
You’d be forgiven if the RBC Canadian Open has become second fiddle for you this week to other matters. Tuesday saw the unexpected bombshell announcement that the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, and PIF LIV Golf merger would be going ahead. That is arguably the biggest news story the golfing world has ever encountered, with substantial ramifications to the entire structure of global professional golf. I’ll mention the merger briefly below, but there is still a tournament this week so make sure to note our Canadian Open picks.
You have to feel for the Canadian Open and it’s title sponsor RBC, who last year faced news stories with the very first LIV Golf event running concurrently to the 2022 tournament. Although, as they say, any news is good news and you could argue the global attention of even those with just a mild interest in the game is all focused in on a small plot of land 1 hour drive north of downtown Toronto.
Before we enter into our Canadian Open picks, I will touch on the recent announcement. It is worth bearing in mind, this is still early int he process and we have very little information of the exact nature of the deal. We understand that the DP World Tour and PGA Tour will form a new for-profit commercial entity including PIF as a minority shareholder. The majority financial interest and board members will remain with the PGA Tour. Jay Monahan somehow manages to find himself as seemingly CEO of all of men’s golf, although it remains to be seen whether aggrieved PGA Tour players force him out. The role of Chairman of the board will be fulfilled by PIF’s Yasir Al-Rumayyan.
Seemingly, LIV Golf will be no longer. Certainly that is a good thing, seeing the best players all playing in relatively the same place. Firstly, we understand there will remain a team aspect to the structure. Entering the realm of speculation, I suspect the PGA Tour and DP World Tour schedules will remain relatively unaffected (albeit perhaps with more lucrative purses). The new created profit making entity may then oversee a team franchise structure. Therefore, my guess is this will run concurrent to the tour as a separate competition with events not conflicting with some of the flagship events of either tour.
Basically, this seems the cleanest solution. Although the team concept may work if structured correctly, integration of an individual and team leaderboard running simultaneously was messy and confusing. A separate team entity, offering franchise opportunities to sponsors, is significantly marketable. We may even see aspects from cricket and the Indian Premier League, where an auction is run at the beginning of the season to purchase players who have opted in.
More will be revealed, but let’s get into our Canadian Open picks!
Oakdale Golf & Country Club plays host to our Canadian Open picks. This will be the first time the course has held the Canadian Open and will appear again on the rotation schedule in 2026.
The course is a relatively short par-72 7,264 yards. Particularly, there is a somewhat atypical arrangement of 3 par 3s and par 5s. Obviously, it may be this short distance that has lead to many in the industry believing this will be a birdie fest. However, I think this will play more difficult than many believe.
The course is tree lined with narrow fairways of average of 25 yards. Additionally, there are a multitude of elevation changes and it will not be uncommon for golfers to find an approach shot with the ball wither above or below their feet. With the sloped fairways and hanging trees, it will matter not just in finding the fairway but which part of the fairway you find.
Rough has been grown out to 4in and will not be cut again during the tournament. With warm and sunny weather predicted, the rough could be pushing 6in come Sunday. Given the course distance and the par 5s, there will be a disproportionate number of shots between 75-150 yards.
Given the above my focus will be on driving accuracy, approach <150 yards, with additional benefit to those with an excellent short-game.
You can find a course flyover here.
We can look to other short and positional courses as a guide this week. Obviously, Harbour Town immediately comes to mind as do Sedgefield, Sea Island GC, Waialae Country Club, Colonial Country Club and Austin Country Club. Innisbrook may draw some parallels, not from the approach distance but instead the importance of driving accuracy and a strong OTT game.
As forecasts currently stand, there is no discernible weather edge. Winds look moderate across the first two days. This is also consistent throughout the day. Thursday AM should play the softest and calmest of conditions. However, it is hard to argue this provides a significant edge worthy of acting upon.
You can find the latest weather forecasts here.
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1686151380407-adc9-371?id=8b55d81b-93b3-41cb-9094-4bb87714a880″]
Matt Kuchar – Your Canadian Open Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +4100 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Nick Taylor
2pts E/W +6600 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Adam Svensson
2pts E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
David Lipsky
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350
Mark Hubbard
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +400
Ben Martin
1pt E/W +12500 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +400
Carson Young – Your Canadian Open Picks Best Value
0.5pts E/W +17000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 40 +175
Thank you reading our 2023 Canadian Open picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!
PROMO: Use the promo code WINBIG here and you’ll receive a no obligation one week FREE trial plus just $5.99 per week for access to all sports.
Includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!
Coming off the Wyndham Clark 75/1 win, the AT&T Byron Nelson ended more with a whimper than a roar for our picks last week. We had leaned heavily into the Enhanced Outright Win number on Scottie Scheffler at +450. This remained for some time despite the withdrawal of second favourite Jordan Spieth. A raft of other names followed including mid-range options Spaun, Hubbard, and Smalley amongst others. Scheffler was of course there all week as expected, although an even par 3rd round proved a huge hurdle to his chances in the final round. We also notably had Ryan Palmer as joint leader entering the final day. Selected at 150/1, the Texan found some hometown advantage to complement some promising statistics to make a great charge at the title. Let’s hope we can secure a few more winning hopes this week with our PGA Championship picks!
Oak Hill Country Club, specifically the East Course, plays host this week. This venue has already played host to three PGA Championship, three US Opens, a Ryder Cup, and the US Amateur. This may imply that there is a myriad of data available for our PGA Championship picks. Those expectations should be somewhat tempered.
Significantly, the course underwent an extensive renovation at the hands of Andrew Green to restore Oak Hill closer to the original Donald Ross vision. Completed in 2020, this restoration should see quite a different course greet players this week. This was previously a test where narrow fairways littered by thousands of large tees saw a huge emphasis on driving accuracy. The removal of hundreds of trees opens up new lines of sight to players.
Explicitly, bunkering has been described as “aggressive”. These are not only strategically placed, but are almost links-like in nature. Mounds surrounding the edges and strong bunker faces will prove a true penalty if found. The rough is thick and it will make little difference whether you miss the fairway by 1 yard or 20 yards. All greens have been completely redone, extensively reshaped, and replaced with pure bentgrass. Holes 5, 6, and 15 are all significantly changed. This is a different golf course and should be treated as such.
There has been some great content produced by the Fried Egg and Golf Digest on these changes. Certainly, I highly recommend watching these to gain an understanding of the course.
Obviously, a newly redesigned golf course provides some challenges in finding related course form. Winged Foot (host of the 2020 US Open) and Bethpage Black (2019 PGA Championship and The Barclays 2016, 2012) provide the most obvious direct examples. Last year’s host Southern Hills should provide a decent correlation, in both approach metrics but also the likely wind we will see this weekend.
Quail Hollow should provide at least some noteworthy comparison, with comparative long approach metrics. Innisbrook Resort and the Copperhead Course holds a similar standing in that regard.
For bentgrass putting, last weeks tournament at TPC Craig Ranch holds the same grass type. Similarly, Wilmington Country Club and Augusta National can be used as a putting guide.
Although the restoration project does lend to an increased emphasis on driving distance compared to previous iterations hosted here, I don’t want to completely discount driving accuracy completely this week. There are many paths to the top of the mountain. However, I do believe the path to victory becomes somewhat narrower (pun intended) for those who lack distance off the tee. Markedly, the penal rough and surrounding mounds will see a distinct advantage for those who can regularly find the fairway.
I think we can also get a little more nuanced in how we treat driving distance this week. With potentially softer conditions due to winter and a wet Spring, runout may be less than at other majors. Also, there are some holes where a compulsory carry of 290 yards+ over hazards is required to gain a distinct advantage. Therefore, I prefer to use Carry Distance to a straight Driving Distance metric.
Following, we again expect a disproportionate number of approach shots to occur from over 200+ yards. 1/3 of approach shots will come from over that distance whilst 2/3 shots will occur over 150 yards. I have used both approach statistics from over 200+ yards as well as approach from rough 150+yards in our PGA Championship picks this week.
Finally, we simply expect this to provide a stern test of every golfers all round game. Accordingly, we expect a winning total in single figures from -5 to -9 is on the cards. Certainly, the list of likely potential winners is small. As such, we have provided reduced staking on many outright win bets to instead focus on place opportunities.
Generally, based on current forecasts there appears to be little to no weather edge leading into the second major of the year.
Firstly, Thursday AM looks to be brutally cold, with highs between 35-50F. Winds, however, will be lower than later that afternoon. Certainly, this looks to mitigate some of the impact from lost driving distance in the colder temperatures.
Subsequently, Friday looks to be the windier of the two opening days. Winds are expected between 9-12mph prevailing with gusts reaching 25-30mph. Basically, this looks to be consistent majority of the day. However, it may develop that Friday AM actually provides the windier conditions of the day.
Finally, if an edge were to develop I suspect that this would move in the direction of being Thursday AM/Friday PM groups. Particularly, for the purposes of DFS I would suggest building lineups with 20% being Thursday AM/Friday PM, 15% Thursday PM/Friday AM, and the remaining 65% mixed.
Latest weather forecasts can be found here
Cameron Young – Your PGA Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +3300 (MGM)
2.5pts Top 10 +320 (Fanduel)
or 2.5pts E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Tony Finau: Pre-Tournament Future
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds, Draftkings, Fanduel, & MGM)
Rickie Fowler
2pts WIN +5500 (Various)
2pts Top 10 +450 (Various)
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Wyndham Clark: Pre-Tournament Future – Your PGA Championship Picks Best Value
2pts E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds, Draftkings & Fanduel)
Taylor Moore
0.5pts WIN +16000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1000 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +450 (Bet365) or +400 (Draftkings)
Stephan Jaeger
0.5pts WIN +25000 (Draftkings)
0.5pts Top 10 +1400 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +475 (Bet365) or +550 (Draftkings)
Harris English
0.5pts WIN +18000 (Draftkings)
0.5pts Top 10 +1600 (Fanduel)
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365/TAB) or +490 (Fanduel)
And
2pts Top 40 +275 (Bet365) or +250 (Fanduel)
Alex Smalley
0.25pts WIN +55000 (Fanduel)
0.25pts Top 10 +2300 (Fanduel)
or 0.25pts E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (Bet365) or +850 Draftkings
And
2.5pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365/TAB) or +320 (Fanduel)
I’m willing to take a stab that we were a little too early on Cameron Young at the Wells Fargo Championship and mark him as our PGA Championship picks favourite this week.
Certainly, Cam Young ticks many of the key statistics we are looking for this week. For carry distance, Young boasts an impressive 3rd on the PGA Tour averaging 305 yards. He is a gainer on approach in all buckets above 100 yards. This includes in the 150+ yards from rough category, where his clubhead speed will prove an asset if straying from the short-grass this week. He displayed an affinity for bentgrass at The Masters this year, gaining +1.23 strokes per round putting around Augusta National.
Cameron Young perhaps should have won the PGA Championship last year. He was the best positioned of candidates on the final 9 Sunday, although eventually succumbing to finish 3rd. He will be better for that experience. Additionally, Southern Hills should provide a reasonable correlation to what we see this week at Oak Hill.
2nd at the 150th Open Championship hosted at St Andrews and 7th this year at The Masters, Young is building a handy resume of major championship results. Don’t be surprised to find him adding to those claims in the near future.
Finally, this is somewhat of a home tournament for Cam Young. He grew up in upstate New York, as he mentioned in this excellent Sports Illustrated interview. Specifically, he mentioned his comfort on these grass types and how it compares to golf courses where he learned to play the game. It further aids his claims to not only take out a major, but his first PGA Tour title at the same time.
Narrowly following up in our PGA Championship picks is Tony Finau, who we were able to snag at a juicy 33/1 where he can only be found at 23/1 at time of writing. For what it is worth, the 23/1 on offer would be at the bottom end of my positive EV and I would not look to take him any shorter than his current pricing.
Finau has been on a prolific winning streak notching 4 victories in his last 20 starts. I’ll acknowledge the calibre of those victories may be questioned. However, at the Mexico Open he beat Jon Rahm on a course where 63.1% of approach shots were from over 175 yards. At the Houston Open, he defeated Scheffler and Day. At the Rocket Mortgage, he beat Cantlay and Cam Young. Finally, the 3M Open he beat Sungjae Im. He has not finished worse than 31st since November 2022. Certainly, the depth of field at many of these events has been less than what we’ve become accustomed to at the new designated events. Conversely, he has also found a way to win more often, against some decent enough opponents.
Tony Finau in 2023 ranks 4th on approach over 200+ yards of those with 50+ shots recorded. He also ranks 9th for approach shots over 150 yards from the rough with 80+ attempts. Finau ranks 7th in this field for SG: APP and 6th for SG: T2G. His driving is both long and straight, which will be a key asset at this testing course.
Boasting an 8th at Winged Foot, multiple Masters Top 10s, and a 12th at Bethpage Black are all promising signs this could fit. It feels an inevitably that Finau will secure at least one major during his career. It may be this week.
I’m typically not overly enamoured by Rickie Fowler. Even in his prime, he often finished towards the top of leaderboards without competing. It felt much like a Xander or Cantlay may do now; oodles of talent but somewhat lacking in the Wins column to show for it.
However, count me impressed by Fowler’s resurgence of late. Since January, he has placed in the top 20 for 8 of his last 9 starts. This has also included 5 designated events. Data Golf rank him as 20th, whilst his OWGR still sits at 49th. That is always an opportunity where we can see some swift correction, as we did with Wyndham Clark when he won for us at big odds.
Sitting 10th for SG: APP in this field over the last 6 months is no small feat. Although on paper he may not be the longest for pure driving distance, his carry distance is an impressive 26th this season on the PGA Tour at 293.50 yards. That is plenty enough distance to be workable this week. Combine that with the fact Fowler is a big gainer in SG: Putt on bentgrass greens and is 12th for SG: Total it provides a promising complete profile for a golfer. He is simply far too long at 75/1.
5 finishes of 12th or better at the Masters, 23rd last year at Southern Hills when in far worse form, and a 36th and 7th at Bethpage Black tick the complimentary courses boxes. Perhaps we see a return to the winner circle for Fowler, just as we did for Jason Day last week.
Again, I feel fortunate we were able to pick up Wyndham Clark at big odds of 80/1 for this event when he can only be found at 66/1 at many books now. I still like him at that price here, especially where that includes 8 or more places. I’d not go as short as 60s.
It has been a stellar year for Wyndham Clark. Previously known simply as a bomber who could putt well, that all changed at the beginning of 2023. From January, Clark began finding his irons in a big way. The scale of improvement has been astounding. If looking at the last 2 years, Clark ranks a lowly 108th in this field for SG: APP. Over the last 6 months, he ranks 11th in this field. In 2022, the PGA Tour had Clark ranked as the 173rd golfer on SG: APP. This year, he ranks 20th.
The victory at Quail Hollow was dominant, winning by 4 strokes to Schauffele and 7 strokes ahead of everybody else in a designated event. That course should prove at least somewhat correlated to here, where strong driving and long irons are key. According to Data Golf, he is the 11th best player in the world where as his OWGR at 32nd. There may still be further correction coming.
The driving distance for Clark remains, where he ranks 6th this year in Carry Distance on the PGA Tour. And, finally, bentgrass may well be his best putting surface. His best putting performances in the past year came at the Fortinet Championship, Rocket Mortgage, and the RBC Canadian Open. All were on bentgrass.
As stated, given the stern test on offer I do believe the top of the board is likely where the winner of this event will come from. As such, you’ll notice a reduced stake for the win options and increased weighting on the Top Finishes markets for the below selections.
Another who I feel the market continues to disrespect is Taylor Moore. Moore secured his breakthrough win at the Valspar Championship. Copperhead Course has always provided a stern enough test. It took -10 for Moore to win this year and there have been multiple iterations where single digits has been sufficient. It also has a huge emphasis on long iron play, with 53% of approach shots this year over 175 yards.
Those long irons are really what draw me to Moore. This year, Moore ranks 2nd behind only Woodland for approach of those with 50+ recorded shots over 200+ yards. That is ahead of Rahm in 3rd, Finau in 4th, and Scheffler in 5th. Some truly elite company to be associated with. He is also 25th over the past 6 months for SG: OTT, gaining for both driving distance and accuracy.
Moore impressed in his major debut at the Masters, managing to make the cut and finishing 39th. It was a tournament where he played much better than the finishing position tells, with a final round +6 sending him flying down the leaderboard. This is easily excused in his first major appearance, especially in a heavily disrupted tournament where the 3rd round resumed on Sunday with the leaders only on the 7th hole. He remains a big gainer for putting in all his appearances featuring bentgrass greens.
11th at the RBC Heritage and 27th at the Wells Fargo came in designated events and marks a run of 11/12 events finishing 39th or better, highlighting this is no “flash in the pan”. I have lofty expectations for Taylor Moore’s career, as I do going into this week.
Jaeger was always a promising type. A stellar amateur career promised much when entering the realms of professional golf. He proceeded to yo-yo between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour, where he has now seemingly begun to find his feet.
I’ll start by saying that bentgrass is by far Jaeger’s preferred putting surface. We saw this just last week when charging through the field to finish 11th at TPC Craig Ranch. But, additionally, at Quail Hollow, the Rocket Mortgage, and Wilmington. Jaeger played in the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot, where he far exceeded expectation when finishing 34th whilst still on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Another whose golf ranking is seemingly out of kilter, Data Golf rank him at 48th versus his OWGR standing of 117th. He has finished 44th or better in 7/8 starts since the Genesis Invitational. 5 of those have been finishes of 27th or better. His long irons are excellent. Particularly, approach shots when playing from the rough from 150+ yards. He sits in the top 80% for SG per shot, proximity, GIR, and Poor Shot Avoidance for this category.
Most notably, Jaeger has quietly gone about adding a lot of driving distance in 2023. He ranks 36th in Carry Distance this season where he sat 94th last year. He is 23rd for SG: T2G in this field over the past 6 months, with his finishes held back somewhat by his putting. However, as mentioned, he is a far better putter on bentgrass and I think we could be in for an eye-catching performance from Jaeger here.
Once regarded as one of the rising stars of the game, 2021 saw Harris English playing in the Ryder Cup and winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions and Travelers Championship. His movement through the world of golf was halted following surgery to a hip injury in the 2021 season. We are beginning to see murmurs that English may soon be back towards his very best.
English impressed last outing when finishing 3rd at the designated event Wells Fargo Championship. He did so when sitting 2nd in the field behind only winner Wyndham Clark for SG: APP. As is often the case, gains in approach tend to be “stickier” whilst we expect spikes in putting performance to regress to a player’s mean much more quickly. 55.2% of approach shots were over 175 yards at Quail Hollow and 75.5% of approach shots were over 150 yards.
He is one of the biggest movers in SG: Putt when shifting to bentgrass greens. He can also boast a 4th place at the US Open at Winged Foot, which we expect to be well correlated to Oak Hill.
Finally, I round out my PGA Championship picks with a small and speculative play on Alex Smalley at huge odds of 500/1. Whereas this is somewhat of a home tournament for Cameron Young, this really is one for Alex Smalley who was born in Rochester, NY.
26 year old Alex Smalley jumped almost directly into the PGA Tour from a stellar amateur campaign. A rather weird transition due to COVID, he finished 48th, 4th, and 15th in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals to earn a PGA Tour card near immediately. It was an eye-catching rookie season, where he made it all the way to the second stage of the FedEx Cup playoffs at the BMW Championship in Wilmington.
Smalley impressed when finishing 18th on last sighting at the elevated Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. He was subsequently backed by me last week, before promptly withdrawing when it became clear he would make the PGA Championship field.
At his best, Smalley is both long and straight off the tee. His approach game has also been rounding into decent form, beyond the promising big uptick last appearance. Particularly, his approach numbers from the rough and 150+ yards are impressive. Smalley has now gained over or been at the field average for approach in his last 5 events.
Again, a debut professional major appearance is a lot to ask of any player. However, he is undeniably a rising talent who represents a great value in both Top 20 and Top 40 markets.
Thank you reading our 2023 PGA Championship picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!
PROMO: Use the promo code WINBIG here and you’ll receive a no obligation one week FREE trial plus just $5.99 per week for access to all sports.
Includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
