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Common Sport Betting Mistakes To Avoid: The 5 betting errors people make most often

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Frustrated losing money betting? Here are the most common sport betting mistakes I encounter

As a golf analyst, one of the questions I am most often asked is what I do differently to others. Fact is, the vast majority of sport bettors will lose money. Bookmakers are not in the business of losing money. Actually, Americans have lost a reported $245billion on sports betting since restrictions loosened in 2018. However, sometimes it is the things you don’t do which are just as important as the actions you do take. I have many years of measured and consistent profit in the betting tips I provide. My hope for you is that, if you do choose to gamble, you do so in a safer and more informed manner. Here are the most common sport betting mistakes which I encounter on a regular basis.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Great Expectations

First in the common sport betting mistakes I come across is sport bettors unrealistic expectations. It is great to have goals. It is fantastic to have a dream. Simply put, you are extremely unlikely to get rich quick from gambling. Any website or tipster who advises you that you can gain enormous wealth immediately using their system is lying to you. Yes, you might get lucky and randomly hit one very big parlay. But, in actuality, sports betting is a grind. Any edge that exists is in the margins and is, generally, small.

For example, take my results for the past two years. In the 2022 golf season, I showed a return on investment of +25%. In 2023, we had a return on investment of +33%. That 2023 result would be the equivalent of placing a single bet of -303. Of course this is spread across an entire year, therefore lowering your risk compared to placing one rather large bet.

Sure, those results exceed the performance of the S&P 500. But, that is the result of years of gradual progress. And it places my results in some of the best and most consistent in the golf betting industry.

Therefore, sports gambling should primarily be for fun. You should never, ever, bet more than you can afford to lose. Bankroll management is key. Your maximum bet size should not exceed 1-2% of your total funds you are prepared to invest. Approach it responsibly and with the full knowledge that you could lose everything you put in.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Gambler’s fallacy

Another common sport betting mistake is known as the gambler’s fallacy. In short, many gamblers believe that prior results mean a future result is near guaranteed to happen. Roulette provides perhaps the easiest analogy. If a black number has fallen 7 times in a row, some gamblers will believe that the next number should surely be red. After all, the roulette wheel will fall on red and black roughly the same percentage of the time right?

The fact is, each spin of the roulette wheel is a completely independent event. The wheel does not remember that the last 7 spins were black. Your odds are still exactly the same. For red or black, that is 48.65% for a single zero wheel (and don’t even get me started on people who choose to play a wheel with two zeroes!) Over a long period of time, it will trend towards that number. But most gamblers seem to think in a very short timeframe.

Of course, in sport betting, recent form is still a very important factor to consider. However, you should focus on self-awareness and avoid falling into the trap of gambler’s fallacy. No golfer is ever “due” to win. Also, just because a golfer won last week doesn’t mean they are less likely to win the following week because they got their “usual” one win for the year. Each tournament is a new event, on a different golf course, in variable conditions, and with a new field. Your bets should be based in evidence and research. Be precise and measured in your approach.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Convoluting probability and value

Perhaps the most common error I find sport bettors making is confusing probability and value. First, we need to understand what expected value is. This uses elements of game theory and implied probability.

Every time you place a bet, that bet has an expected value. Going back to the roulette example, on a single zero wheel the expected value is -2.7%. That is to say that, over time, you can expect to lose 2.7% of your gambled amount. This is calculated as the 37 possible numbers on the wheel, where 19 results being losing bets and the other 18 being where you double your amount bet.

The only way to consistently win at sport betting is to place bets with a positive expected value. My role is to provide you with selections where the odds on offer are not a fair reflection of the golfer’s actual chances. For example, if Rory McIlroy is given odds of +1900 to win a golf tournament, the bookmaker is saying he has a 5% chance to win that tournament. However, if our research and projections show that he actually has a 7% chance to win the tournament then an opportunity exists. That +2% difference between the implied odds and the projected probability is the small margins I allude to.

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I often find people confuse probability and value. Some will make statements claiming a certain golfer will never win. Others will say that one golfer is much more likely to win than another. Those statements can both be true. However, the odds often reflect this reality. The better golfer is more than likely lower odds as a result. Instead, you are better to simply remain focused whether each set of odds truly reflect the probability of that event occurring.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Not tracking results

It amazes me how many sports bettors do not track their bets. And that likely means that you actually already know you are losing money sport betting.

Unfortunately, this is also all too common from multiple touts. I surmise that, more often than not, the reason they don’t is because they are afraid to look. Find tipsters that you respect and enjoy reading, but also look for those that transparently publish their profit and loss for better or worse.

Can you imagine a business that never calculated what it was spending and what it revenue was? Undoubtedly, the future of that business would be untenable. You should take the same approach with your sport betting. Be transparent and honest with yourself. If you are ok losing money sport betting and are doing so responsibly whilst gaining enjoyment, then that is fine. That is something for you to decide. If you are determined to try make a little money sport betting, then you should know where you are to determine where you are trying to go.

Sportsbooks will produce a profit and loss statement for you. I prefer a more manual approach, as there is useful data to be gained from knowing specifically what type of bets win and learning from mistakes I’ve made. Either way, you should know what you are spending and where.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Going on “gut feeling”

Let’s face it. Sportsbooks likely know more than you do. After all, it is their job and sole reason for existence. They have teams of highly skilled experts covering every sport, limiting their exposure, and complicated algorithms to project likely outcomes. They are likely investing more time into research and models than you are. If not for time, their models are likely better than yours.

Have you accurately assessed every golfer in the field, the type of golf course they are playing, what the weather conditions will be, and any and all other factors potentially impacting on the event? Hand on heart, I would struggle to ever say I’ve taken every single possible factor into account. Some factors are also simply unknown. Take when Erik Van Rooyen won for us in 2023 at 80/1. I had no idea when I recommended the bet that this factor was in play:

Scottie Scheffler doesn’t care about that funny feeling in your stomach that tells you he is going to play well this week. Too often, I see people celebrating bets they won which they placed on a “hunch”. You should avoid like the plague any touts who use language like “I’ve got a feeling” too often. Sports betting isn’t based on feelings. In fact, it should be as emotionless as possible.

Don’t bet on players because you like them and think you are a successful sport bettor. Conversely, don’t fade players simply because you dislike them. It should be a statistical and analytical approach. You are looking for opportunities where the chance of the golfer winning is greater than their odds suggest.

Avoiding common sport betting mistakes

Stick to a system

Much akin to tracking your bets, you should also be methodical in your approach to sport betting. One big error I see punters make is placing too many bets. Just because a tournament is on, doesn’t mean that you have to bet it. In certain events, I won’t produce any tips. Commonly, this is because the field is too small and there exists no statistical edge to any bet as the hold the books have is simply too strong. In other circumstances, we might have poor or incomplete date for many golfers in a weaker field as they do not play enough higher profile tournaments.

Following a system prevents such errors as suddenly betting significantly more after a big win. Infinitely worse is those who are chasing losses. When you’ve lost more money than you are comfortable, you need to appreciate that the money is gone. Throwing more money on the fire is rarely going to put it out. Instead, take the time to reflect on your gambling and whether it is at a level that is actually sustainable and safe for you.

By being consistent and methodical in your approach, you can mitigate this risk. I follow a system with clear unit sizing based on the perceived edge we have between the implied odds and projected probability. I typically select between 5-8 golfers each week where the highest expected value exists. This does not vary week to week. As you increase your bankroll, you can begin to slowly increase your stake as long as you remain below your total weekly limit of % of your bankroll.

Shop your odds

It should go without saying, but you need to shop your odds. I appreciate this can be frustrating, as it often results in needing multiple accounts with different bookmakers to obtain the best odds.

However, as already noted, we so often operate under small margins in sport betting. The difference between a golfer being priced +2000 and +2500 looks small on paper. What that really means is you have given up a free 1% of implied probability. The lower the odds, the smaller deviation from the best odds is required to provide a rather substantial difference.

This cuts directly into your margin and potential profit. There are many websites out there which will give you an overview of what odds each bookmaker is offering for an event. Use them.

With all my selections, I provide detailed information of the exact odds used and where they were obtained at time of publication. This makes it easy for you and gives you the peace of mind that you’re backing a selection with a positive expected value.

If you can find better odds than I have published at another reputable bookmaker, then even better! But do be careful with golf betting and place terms for each-way bets, as these can affect the implied probability even though the headline number may be the same.

Take yourself out of the equation

If you are determined to be a better sports bettor, one of the best things you can do is to invest in a WinDaily Sports premium membership.

Yes, my selections have been proven to be profitable over a substantial period. I don’t promise that you will get rich quick. But, we have shown to turn a profit consistently over time and I can guarantee you will have fun along the way. You can have all the thrill of cheering on your golfers each week, with less risk and time than doing the extensive research required yourself.

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

However, one of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel.
You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with myself and others, as well as asking me directly any questions you have.

For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024.

JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $USD240!
That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $449.99.

I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2024!

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PGAGolf

The Sentry Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s tournament analysis, weather, and advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
The Sentry preview, set on the backdrop of the Plantation Course at Kapalua

It seems only fitting that the PGA Tour have dropped the “Tournament of Champions” part from the tournament title for The Sentry, our first preview of 2024. After all, this will now be the second consecutive year where the champion is not actually even here to defend their title. Cameron Smith was absent in 2023. Subsequently, Jon Rahm will not be here in 2024 as the latest and most significant defection to LIV Golf. That is a real shame not just for the PGA Tour but, most importantly, the fans. You can read more on my thoughts on the defection and what 2024 may hold here.

Before we dive into our Sentry preview proper, I’d like to take a paragraph to thank all my loyal followers in 2023. Especially, to all our WinDaily Sports subscribers. Obviously, there are costs associated with running a website and providing the best coverage of golf tournaments that we can. For those who supported me in that, please accept my heartfelt gratitude. You literally keep the lights on and, therefore, help us continue producing more great content.

Of course, this also paid off in a rather grand way for our Premium subscribers in 2023!
2023 we had 15 outright winners for a return of investment of +22% on the DP World Tour and +40% on the PGA Tour.
2023 total ROI was an EPIC +33% and profit of +929.58 units.
Using just $10 per unit, you would have made over $9,000 in 2023!

That follows a 2022, when we had 16 outright winners for a return of investment of +24% on the DP World Tour and +26% on the PGA Tour. It marks our 5th consecutive year of profitability; may 2024 bring another one!

The Sentry Preview

Plantation Course at Kapalua – Course Analysis

This is often a tricky event to cover. Chiefly, that comes down to the fact many golfers have only played sparingly since August. Some guesswork is required, and hope that we can use what we know to assist us in our search for a winning start to 2024.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua plays host to The Sentry (Tournament of Champions) as it has done since 1999, so a preview of the course may seem somewhat unnecessary. But, we have of course all been so focused on “growing the game” the last few years that I am sure there are lots of eager new golf fans ready to delve into their first tournament here.

First, note that this is a rare par 73 on the PGA Tour. Sitting at 7,596 yards, the course has 3 par 3s and 4 par 5s. That makes the course one of the longest on the PGA Tour.

The length is offset somewhat by many of the holes playing downhill. As such, driving distance is not the be all and end all here. Fairways are undulating, leading to many approach shots where the ball is above or below the feet. Also assisting are some of the widest fairways and the largest greens on the PGA Tour. Players can pull their driver out regularly, with % of fairways found the highest of all regular PGA Tour stops at 72.2%.

The huge green complexes averaging over 8,700 sq ft also pose less risk when approaching with a long iron than on other courses. There really lies the key to success. Finding the right area of the green. Making your fair share of putts is important too, at a course which has had a tendency to allow some low scores.

Preview Course Comps for The Sentry

Course form at Plantation is somewhat stickier than most PGA Tour courses. If you have played well here previously, there is a higher probability that you will do so again than at comparative venues. Further adding to this phenomenon is the transient nature of this field. Typically, the Sentry field has consisted only of the winners from the previous PGA Tour season. I suspect the correlation of previous success as a predictive factor should actually receive some uptick compared to first glance.

The strongest correlation is from The Masters. That comp passes the sense check. Augusta National features some of the widest fairways on the PGA Tour, actually just wider on average than at the Plantation course Kapalua. Again, fairways found hovers above 70% for Augusta National. Many approach shots are congruent to those seen here due the undulating fairways at both. Most obvious, Jon Rahm completed the double winning both in 2023. 2022 champion Cam Smith came mighty close to winning The Masters with a 2nd and 3rd in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

Hero World Challenge host, Albany Golf Course, also is a decent guide. Played in The Bahamas and featuring a small but elite field, Albany has hosted the Hero World Challenge since 2015. The course provides parallels not only from the field assembled. The tropical and coastal elements lend itself well to Plantation. As a 7,309 yard par 72, driver is used heavily and we can see correlation through the top of the leaderboard. Rahm has won and finished runner-up at both. Morikawa has never finished worse than 7th at Plantation nor worse than 6th at Albany.

Weather

As the Sentry features a limited field, we can release our tournament preview article a little earlier in the week as there is less chance a significant weather edge will develop. Basically, the tee-times are over a shorter window. There is less of an advantage to be gained by any one player.

From our future forecasting, Thursday looks to be overcast with possibility of light showers to soften conditions and benign winds. Scoring should be good, and a fast start likely necessary to keep up with the pack. Friday should see some heavy winds arrive from midday, with gusts over 25mph. The winds remain for Saturday, while Sunday will settle. A low round should again be required on the final day of play.

Overall, the course does not pose much risk and has yielded some very low scores. The main defense for Plantation has always been the wind. We saw this in 2020 with a winning score or -14 being 20 strokes higher than the tournament record -34 set in 2022. With some wind in the forecast, I suspect a winning score in the low 20s should see the job done.

Sentry Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Sentry preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for The Sentry, premium customers can find these here.

For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.

JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $USD240!
That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $449.99.

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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Sports BettingPGAGolf

The Sentry Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s best bets and player profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Sungjae Im is our favourite play from our Sentry betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for The Sentry, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. Here I provide my deep-dive analysis of the course, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament.

There are a few notables worth discussing first. Collin Morikawa holds clear appeal. Obviously, he has strong links to Hawaii and has never finished worse than 7th in 4 starts at The Sentry. However, the spectacular capitulation to hand Jon Rahm victory here could well play on his mind. I also held concerns about his ability to play in the wind, which is expected to get reasonably strong on two days of play. Therefore, he misses out on the Sentry betting tips.

Justin Rose held appeal, given his strong Masters record and excellent performances at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas. Similarly, Keegan Bradley was considered before his poor record at both Augusta National and Albany alongside poor showings in his last two Sentry starts saw others preferred.

The Sentry Golf Betting Tips

Results
25 units in, 60.31 units out

Updated 8 Jan 8:30PM ET
Jordan Spieth
3rd – Top 5 at +625
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Tony Finau
38th
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Sungjae Im – The Sentry Betting Tips Favourite
5th – Top 5 at +825 (reduced to -117 due dead-heat)
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Sepp Straka
12th – Top 20 at +162
1pt E/W +6600 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +162 (William Hill)

Sahith Theegala – The Sentry Betting Tips Best Value
2nd – Top 5 at +2000 and Top 20 at +190
1pt E/W +8000 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +180 (William Hill)

We also gave out Theegala as First-Round Leader on the PGA Draftcast, which hit at 60/1!
Tune in on YouTube Tuesdays at 9PM ET as we give out our favourite DFS plays and free FRL bets.

The Sentry Betting Tips Player Profiles

Jordan Spieth – 3rd

It is likely fair to say that Spieth has been out of sorts for a couple of season now. In 2022, he finished in the Top 5 in just 13% of his starts and only really claimed victory at the RBC Heritage as others crumbled around him. Three of those were on our card that week, but I digress.

2023 was a winless season, but did see some improvement finishing in the top 5 in 21% of his starts. No doubt, he will be eager to begin 2024 on a positive note. The Plantation Course at Kapalua could prove the perfect antidote.

We spoke about the correlation from The Masters to The Sentry in our tournament preview article. And, we obviously know what Spieth does at Augusta National. His 2nd on debut was quickly followed by victory the following year and another runner up. He has added another two 3rd place finishes and a 4th in 2023. That means he has finished 4th or better in 60% of his starts at The Masters.

It is no surprise then that he won this tournament in 2016. Again, that came after a runner-up finish on first sight. He finished 9th or better in his first 4 starts here. Falling off the boil in 2022 and 2023 (21st and 13th respectively) coincides with his general regression in form over that period.

Of promise though was a return to form in December, finishing 6th at the Hero World Challenge. A mediocre 71 in the 3rd round put paid to his chances there, but it was a glimmer of hope that Spieth could kick-start 2024 in the best way possible.

Tony Finau – 38th

Next in our Sentry betting tips is Tony Finau. Given his propensity to be a perennial close finisher, he had been referred to as “T2 Tony” by some. Finau broke free of the shackles of that reputation in 2022.

Back-to-back wins that year were followed by a 2023 season where he again got over the finish line twice. The latter of those victories came at the Mexico Open over absent defending champion Jon Rahm. Vidanta Vallarta is far from the worst comp course. The wide open fairways, long irons, and low scoring are all common to what is required at Plantation.

Finau already holds a 9th and 7th at this tournament and boasts 3 top 10s at the Masters, where he has never missed the cut. However, the form at the Hero World Challenge is what really caught my eye. He holds a record around Albany of 2-10-7-7-4. That most recent 4th included holding the first round lead, with another 67 coming in the final round.

Much of the final result will come down to Finau’s ability to get the putter rolling. But, when he does so, he now wins golf tournaments. The putter again looked to be leaning towards the right direction towards the end of 2023, and a fast start to the season would not surprise at a course where he has always looked a likely sort.

Sungjae Im – 5th
The Sentry Betting Tips Favourite

I really like the number currently available around Sungjae Im this week. Sungjae was 5th on his first look at this course, a tournament where he also lead the field in SG: tee-to-green and actually lost strokes putting. He has subsequently finished 8th and 13th in his other two appearances here.

Of course, Im has also flashed at Augusta National. The runner-up finish on Masters debut was obviously eye-catching, but he has then gone on to add an 8th and 16th place finish there as well. He has only played the Hero World Challenge once, finishing 8th in 2022. There, he was able to overcome the 3rd worst opening round (74) to continually improve throughout the week.

Sungjae Im has always been a golfer who has promised more. It is perhaps surprising that he is still only 25 years old. For context, he is just 18 months older than Ludvig Aberg. The end of 2023 held much promise for Im. Outside a lackluster Tour Championship, he quietly finished 14th or better in his final 5 tournaments of the year. 2024 could well be the year he kicks on to bigger things.

Sepp Straka – 12th

Sepp Straka has cemented himself as one of the ultimate boom-or-bust plays in golf. When looking at longer odds, that is always going to hold some appeal and more-so in a reduced field size.

It was another fantastic year in 2023, most notable for winning the John Deere Classic before finishing runner-up at The Open Championship.

The Masters record is just ok, although he has made the cut in his two starts there. He arrives here off another recent runner-up finish in the Hero World Challenge at Albany. He overcame a mediocre even par opening round there, quickly finding his feet and finishing with an excellent 64 in the final round. Similar can be said for his single appearance here, where he finished 68-67 over the weekend and improved in each round.

Additionally, in that sole Sentry appearance he was 2nd in the field for SG: Approach. And it is that which we are buying into; his absolute ability to get red-hot with his irons and putter on his day.

Sahith Theegala – 2nd
The Sentry Betting Tips Best Value

Another longer odds selection with seemingly endless upside to close out our Sentry betting tips. Sahith Theegala secured his inaugural PGA Tour win towards the tail-end of 2023. It was a victory that many saw coming, with his notably aggressive style of play lending itself to top finishes or ending at the bottom half of the field.

Theegala struggled at this course in 2023. However, a deeper dive into his numbers that week reveal that he was actually 10th in the field for SG: Approach and 2nd worst for putting that week. Theegala is certainly an excellent putter, ranking 13th on the PGA Tour over the last 6 months. Additionally, some of his best putting performances have come on bermudagrass as we find here. Notably, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and RSM Classic come to mind.

Of course, then was the 9th on Masters debut. That really felt like a significant moment for Theegala in his fledgling career; a sign to all of us that he can truly holds the ability to compete with the best. That, when combined with his near perfect correlation to the ideal course fit for this track, makes the 80/1 currently available far too juicy to resist.

What a start to 2024!

For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.

Our results speak for themself.
2022 we had 16 outright winners for a return of investment of +24% on the DP World Tour and +26% on the PGA Tour.
2023 we had 15 outright winners for a return of investment of +22% on the DP World Tour and +40% on the PGA Tour.
2023 the combined total ROI was an EPIC +33% and +929.58 units.
Using just $10 per unit, you would have made over $9,000 in 2023!

JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $USD240!
That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $449.99.

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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PGALIV TourGolf

LIV PGA Tour merger talks delayed: What does 2024 hold for the future of golf?

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Jon Rahm announcing he signed with LIV Golf shocked the golfing world and disrupted LIV PGA Tour merger talks

In a move widely expected, given the imminent arrival of the self-imposed 31 December deadline, The Telegraph is now reporting that merger talks between LIV and PGA Tour will be extended. Obviously, this is no surprise for many. The 6 June shock announcement from the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund and the PGA Tour to lay down their weapons and move towards a reunification of golf was surprisingly light on any detail. With rumours that meetings were still to occur all through December, including a “final” meeting on the D-Day of 31 December itself, an outcome in time for 2024 seemed unlikely.

Further, contributing to the delay were antitrust investigations into the deal by the U.S. Justice Department and the emergence of the Strategic Sports Group as another potential investor. And, of course, the shock announcement that Jon Rahm had decided to sign with LIV Golf rocking the golf world. Make no bones about it; securing the scalp of Jon Rahm was a major boon for LIV Golf. It was his Masters victory which likely made the defection easier to stomach for Rahm. It granted him multiple years with guaranteed entry to all four majors. With LIV denied OWGR points, due a lack of clear pathways for earning (or losing) a card other than answering the phone, certainty of major entries was essential for Rahm. Further, it is speculated Rahm had become disillusioned with leadership from the negotiating team and, particularly, Patrick Cantlay’s emergence as a supposed leading voice in those talks.

It’s fair that golf fans have grown restless, frustrated, and despondent for the continual disruptions. So fans find themselves once again asking the question: what now for the future of professional golf?

Scenario 1: LIV PGA Tour merger confirmed in 2024

Perhaps the most likely outcome is that at some point in early 2024 the LIV PGA Tour merger is finally confirmed. Speculation is that the new deadline will be moved to end of March, before the latest LIV defector Jon Rahm defends his green jacket at the 2024 Masters.

What the Rahm move means is the onus is now on the PGA Tour to find a solution. Losing one of the four biggest names in the sport is a golf ball sized pill to swallow. The thought of two of their flagship events, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, being without their defending champion is a bad look. Rahm is one of the few names in golf that actually move the needle in viewership.

The exact shape of that deal remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, team golf would form an element. Several LIV contracts have included equity in their respective teams for their key signings. The best scenario for fans would likely see LIV move to a team only format, drawing on players from both the PGA and DP World Tours. The current LIV format is messy, confusing, and the viewership numbers show it has simply not connected with fans in the way they hoped. Separating team golf and individual golf would provide clarity.

Most importantly for fans, it would see the best golfers play together more often. Otherwise, the sport risks becoming tennis where the major championships are the only time the best all compete. Or worse, boxing where fans are left to contemplate what title really matters. The merger remains a very possible resolution. And one which could see Jon Rahm get his $USD500m cake and be able to eat it too.

Scenario 2: PGA Tour and Strategic Sports Group form a new deal

Another possibility is that the PGA Tour utilise the expiration of the 31 December deadline and the DOJ investigation to back out of the LIV PGA Tour merger. The emergence of another potential investor was not expected. However, it became clear this was a preference for the PGA Tour when players gained further voices on the board and Tiger Woods made obvious his sentiments on the matter.

This comes with some problems. First, let’s be very clear. There is no viable business case for the current deals being signed for players. Yes: Jon Rahm is a very, very good golfer. But, he is simply not worth $US500m for a deal rumoured to be for 3-5 years. To put the number in perspective, the PGA Tour generates about 10% of the revenue of the NBA. Rahm’s deal alone is worth about a third of all revenue generated by golf in a year from all sources. It is roughly double the highest paid NBA player.

Unlike PIF, other entities expect and need a return on their investment. The Saudi PIF have already demonstrated they don’t necessarily care about a direct financial return from buying professional golf. More, they may benefit indirectly through sports washing and non-linear business deals made adjacent to LIV tournaments.

Therefore, it’s a reasonable assumption any money invested by Fenway will not be to the exorbitant extents PIF are offering. It could provide a temporary solution. But it is unlikely sustainable for more than a few years to compete with LIV. Whether LIV agree to allow SSG a seat at the table in a triangular agreement remains to be seen.

Scenario 3: LIV PGA Tour talks dissolve

This possibility likely sends a shiver down the spines of golf fans. The status quo would be a huge blow to golf fans. Perhaps we were blissfully naive as fans to be able to watch all the best players regularly compete against one another. But there is a real chance we don’t see those times again for the foreseeable future.

Further, the move of Jon Rahm is likely to see others follow. It provides real legitimacy to the LIV Tour; a feather in their cap that we can expect them to roll-out frequently. It could result in a further fracturing of the best players in the game. For a somewhat niche sport that lacks global appeal, it means spreading to little butter over too much bread. The resulting reduction in viewership and subsequently revenue would be devastating to the game as we know it.

It is already the case that many arm-chair golf fans tune in only for the majors and that’s about it. The continued fractured tours would only amplify that phenomenon.

The death of the journeyman golfer

Irrespective of what deal (or lack thereof) is struck, one thing does seem certain. The concentration of funding is all pointing towards the elite of the game. That is unsustainable for the sport, resulting in less funding for those who have previously made a comfortable living from golf without setting the world alight. If you are ranked outside the top 100 in the world, the life as a professional golfer will inevitably look quite different.

In many ways, that is a real shame. The beauty of golf is that any player can win on their day. The David and Goliath stories of Rocco Mediate going against the G.O.A.T. will be all that more infrequent. Fields of 140+ players and even having a cut could well be a thing of the past. For many players, making that cut can mean the difference between keeping their tour card or returning to the lower ranks for another attempt. All of that makes for compelling storylines; the types of tales that keep bringing us back to the sport.

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World Wide Technology Championship Betting Picks & Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
El Cardonal plays host to the World Wide Techonology Cahmpionship for the first time.

The PGA Tour returns this week with a revamped World Wide Technology Championship. Of course, this tournament was previously held at the iconic El Cameleon Mayakoba. LIV Golf halted the streak of tournaments hosted there. LIV secured exclusive use of the course for their schedule, whatever that may eventually end up being. I’ll miss El Cameleon not just for the aesthetics, but also it’s very predictable nature of that event given the strongly weighted statistical profile it always produced. Instead, El Cardonal at Diamante is our host for the first time. This provides a new course for us to dive into and additionally the first appearance of a Tiger Woods design course on the PGA Tour.

I always enjoy seeing where the industry lands once a new golf course is added to the schedule. But it does appear, to my eye, that El Cardonal is somewhat straightforward to read. And that includes taking all World Wide Technology Championship form you previously had, burn the book, and do the complete opposite.

Qatar Masters Recap

A second week in a row where we had multiple selections in contention only for them to fade on the final day. Our two favourite selections, who were also members of our DFS core, Thorbjorn Olesen and Ewen Ferguson finished 9th and 16th respectively. It is always frustrating to have players in contention not finish the job, but the more often you end up having multiple players in position on Sunday is what eventually leads to the great results we have enjoyed this year. Olesen missed a full place payout by one shot and Ferguson by three.

It was somewhat pleasing to see Sami Valimaki secure the victory via playoff over Jorge Campillo, given Campillo featured prominently in our shortlist until his odds were released a tad too short to represent a genuine profitable play. A substantial weather edge did develop which we got spot on. This proved particularly advantageuous for our DFS players who were able to weather stack according to our advice.

Wil Besseling was our only triple figure for the week, put up at a massive 175/1. He did well in finishing 21st. Again, just one shot short of cashing a juicy Top 20 ticket but good enough to lock in a Top 40 payout on him. Here is hoping those we get in contention at this week’s World Wide Technology Championship get the job done on Sunday.

El Cardonal Course Analysis

Firstly, what jumps out from the greenskeeper notes is the average fairway width of 60 yards and greens averaging 8,400 sq feet. Both of those numbers are absurd and represent some of the highest you will see on tour all season. Tiger basically insinuated the course is essentially a resort course for weekend hacks. Eamon Lynch stated the course is “generous”. Basically, this course was never built with a PGA Tour professional in mind. It will be intriguing to see what the subsequent result is.

The course is coastal and, therefore, will play every inch of the some 7,452 yard par 72 shown on the scorecard being at sea level. The entire course is paspalum grass. This sturdy grass is rarely found on tour. Essentially, paspalum is used in hot and humid tropical conditions where the ocean is nearby. The thicker nature and higher salt tolerance make it a must in such conditions. That always has me licking my lips, as we have seen some real paspalum specialists pop up over the years.

In short, I expect a birdie fest this week. The only defense looks to be wind, and the weather forecast is so benign I’m not even providing a paragraph for it this week. You will need to go low and do so often to contend, with my suspicion being you will see a winning score close to -30 than -20. Driving distance should be particularly advantageous, but particularly performance on paspalum is weighted highly for me this week.

YouTube player

World Wide Technology Championship Course Comps

As mentioned, throw Mayakoba out the window. Where that test is narrow and testing, this is likely to be anything but.

My favourite course comps this week are paspalum courses where driving distance and putting have proven to be good predictive factors to success. Included in that list are Grand Reserve GC (Puerto Rico Open), Puntacana Resort & Club (Corales Puntaca Championship), and Vidanata Vallarta (Mexico Open). We have seen time and again how these tropical courses throw out the same players regardless of form, and should be a good guide this week.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua (Sentry Tournament of Champions) should also be a good guide for you this week. Along with being a coastal and tropical track, it features fairways and greens complexes as large as we see here. Additionally, El Cardonal does feature some significant elevation changes and undulations. However, do be cautious when reading form at Plantation. Given the field typically only features 30 or so golfers, a finish of 21st is likely nothing to write home about.

World Wide Technology Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Emiliano Grillo
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Akshay Bhatia
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cameron Champ – Your World Wide Techonology Championship Favourite
2.5pt E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Do check your odds on Champ, as he opened at 80/1 in places.

Vince Whaley
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Erik Van Rooyen
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Brandon Wu
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Nate Lashley
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Kelly Kraft – Your World Wide Techonology Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our World Wide Technology Championship preview article. You can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Link your premium channel and Discord on the website, as we often have exclusive betting plays within our Discord channels.

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Qatar Masters Picks & Advice: Everything You Need to Know About Doha Golf Club

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Doha Golf Club again plays host to our Qatar Masters picks

With just the one tournament this week, the eyes of the golfing world turn to the Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour. We have had an excellent record in national opens this season. We have correctly included the winner in our selections for the Canadian Open (Taylor 66/1), US Open (Clark 80/1), British Masters (Hillier 80/1), Irish Open (Norrman 45/1), and the Open de Espana (Pavon 80/1). An excellent omen for our Qatar Masters picks!

This tournament has shifted about a bit over the past few years. Originally held as part of the “Desert Swing” in January, it shifted to March, yet now pops up on the calendar at the end of October. It should not make too much difference to the golfer profile we search for this week, but more on this in our weather analysis. It does, however, mean that the tournament takes on added significance as the final event of the regular schedule. This is the last chance for many players to secure their DP World Tour playing rights for 2024. It is also a final opportunity to qualify for the Nedbank Challenge and DP World Tour Championship in the coming month. I’m looking forward to attending the latter in Dubai, so I will make sure to post some pictures in the Win Daily Discord for all our premium members.

ZOZO Championship Recap

We had the 36 hole leader on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour for another week with multiple options in contention. At the ZOZO Championship, Beau Hossler once again put himself in prime position. Our Premium members will know we have been on Hossler for the past three weeks. Notably, his approach play is showing some great improvement. Typically a long driver of the golf ball with excellent putting, addressing the weakest part of his game will see him win on the PGA Tour in the near future. He eventually finished 2nd for a full place payout at equivalent odds of +600.

That was behind an impressive Morikawa, who ended his dry spell in emphatic fashion. I’ll admit I did hold concerns for Morikawa in the high winds forecast in rounds 1 and 2. To some extent, that did come to fruition. Morikawa was back at even par four holes into his 3rd round. He then miraculously played his final 32 holes at 14 under to win by some margin. We also had Cam Davis, who was 8th at the 36 hole mark and eventually just missed out on place money in 12th. Xander was 4th at halfway, but a dreadful weekend saw him tumble well out of contention.

Andalucia Masters Recap

The DP World Tour remained in Spain for the Andalucia Masters. With a new course, some guess work was required. We got it spot on for the weather draw, with a decent weather edge for those avoiding the highest winds. Our key course comp of Al Hamra also proved true, with winner Adrian Meronk having finished 4th and 6th in his two appearances at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship.

Despite the course favouring longer hitters, it was the accurate Spaniard Adrian Otaegui who held the 36 hole lead for us. He was well in contention entering Sunday, including playing his first 48 holes bogey free despite high winds. To his credit, he pushed hard for victory firing at every pin. That is all you can really ask for a golfer in such position, although it did eventually cost us another full place payout finishing 9th.

Our 140/1 selection Adri Arnaus also came out firing in the 3rd round, shooting up the leaderboard to join Otaegui in the lead on Saturday. He faded slightly in the final round, but a 19th place finish was good enough for a partial Top 20 payout and a Top 40 hit. We also cashed a Top 20 bet on Sebastian Soderberg in 19th, again reduced due to dead-heat rules.

Doha Golf Club Course Analysis

Heading into our Qatar Masters picks, Doha Golf Club plays host once again. This course has played host to this tournament since 1998, except in 2020 and 2021 when the event was held at neighbouring Education City Golf Club. Therefore, it is important to ensure you read course history rather than tournament history when analyzing your data.

Course form also proves to be more “sticky” here than other venues. You should give more weighting to prior performance here than on other courses. Basically, if golfers have played well here before they are statistically more likely to do so again. Conversely, do not be surprised if players in form don’t carry that with them to Doha have they struggled here previously.

I’ve previously referred to this course as one of the “faux links” we see on the DP World Tour. The course is designed by Peter Harradine, but it is the work of Kyle Phillips that provides the most guidance. Phillips designed Kingsbarns, one of the regular courses from the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation. He also created other faux links courses Yas Links, in Abu Dhabi, and Bernardus, an inland but exposed links course hosting the KLM Open. The former also has paspalum grass. Paspalum is often found in ocean side and tropical courses, due to it’s sturdy nature and higher salt tolerance.

The key reason for all this is wind. The course is very exposed, with virtually no protection from the winds. Fairways and greens are undulating and well bunkered. Certainly, the course demands a specific skillset you don’t often see for the majority of the season.

Course Comps for our Qatar Masters Picks

For all the aforementioned reasons, our course comps are dominated by links form. The Alfred Dunhill Links and, to some extent, The Open Championship have been good guides here. Likewise, the Kyle Phillips designed Yas Links and Bernardus provide good correlations to Doha Golf Club.

Yet it is another Phillips design which is perhaps the best course comp to guide your Qatar Masters picks. Verdura Golf Club hosted the Sicilian Open on four occasions. However, the correlation is significant.

Alvaro Quiros has won at both courses. Michael Lorenzo-Vera finished 2nd there in his one appearance and has a record in Doha of 30-59-4-10-2. Thorbjorn Olesen won at Verdura (having also won and finished runner-up at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship). He has a 2nd and 3rd at Doha GC. Chris Wood, who was 5th as an amateur at The Open then 3rd the next year, finished runner-up to Olesen at Verdura and then won in Doha the next year. Joakim Lagergren went the other way. He finished runner-up at the Qatar Masters and then won at Verdura the following here.

Education City form shouldn’t be completely thrown away, Campillo having won on that course and holding a good record on this track. Likewise, general form in the Middle East is seen as a positive for our Qatar Masters Picks.

Weather for our Qatar Masters Picks

As mentioned, the tournament has shifted from March to October this year. Conditions should present quite similar. Both March and October are in the shoulder season, with temperatures consistently in the range of 30-35C (high 80s-low 90s for those metrically opposed).

What is also consistent is the wind. All coastal Middle East golf courses experience a sea breeze from early afternoon. As the land heats up, air rises and creates a lower pressure area. This causes the air above the ocean to move onshore. When I was learning to play golf in Dubai, you could almost predict when these winds would hit to the minute. The impact was also severe, and playing longer holes into the high winds became very difficult.

This week, Thursday morning provides for the lowest winds of the two rounds prior to the cut. Friday morning will also present better conditions than the afternoon. However, some moderate winds will start building a couple of hours earlier than Thursday. Although no significant weather edge exists for our Qatar Masters picks, general ability to play in the wind is essential to success here.

Qatar Masters Picks

Suggested Staking

Thorbjorn Olesen
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Ewen Ferguson – Your Qatar Masters Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Sebastian Soderberg
2pt E/W +6000 (William Hill with 8 palces 1/5 odds)

Jeff Winther
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (TAB)

Michael Lorenzo-Vera
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Matthew Jordan – Your Qatar Masters Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +335 (Unibet)

Will Besseling
0.5pt E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (TAB)
And
2pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Summary

Thank you reading our Qatar Masters picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Make sure you are linked in to your premium channel, as we often have exclusive betting plays within the Discord channels.

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ZOZO Championship Picks: Everything You Need To Know About Narashino CC

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Narashino Country Club plays host to our ZOZO Championship Picks

ANOTHER ONE. Another week and yet another winner from the pages of DeepDiveGolf! Mathieu Pavon completed a relatively stress free wire-to-wire victory paying a juicy 80/1. In a quirky stat, we’ve had a ridiculous run of winners at national opens. We’ve successfully picked the winner at the Canadian Open (Nick Taylor 66/1), US Open (Wyndham Clark 80/1), Irish Open (Vincent Norrman 45/1), and now Mathieu Pavon at 80/1 for the Open de Espana. You could convince me to add Daniel Hillier winning the British Masters at 80/1 to the list. And, although this is not a national open (the Japan Open Golf Championship was actually last week), we are in fine form for our ZOZO Championship picks.

I feel even more aggrieved now that we tipped Ryo Hisatsune in 3 out of the 4 tournaments before he won the Open de France at 100/1. If you’ve followed our suggested staking in 2023 using $10 per unit, then you are over $9,000 in profit.

The first many will notice about Narashino Country Club is that there are two greens on every hole. This is common in Japan and comes with many benefits. Firstly, having two greens allows one to be restored or undergo aeration whilst the other is played. Secondly, it allows variety for course members and regulars. Finally, in a country like Japan which has extremely hot and humid summers then snow in winter, it would be used by having different grass types on each green for the seasons.

https://x.com/PGATOUR/status/1187072948152061952?s=20

Narashino Country Club Course Analysis

Fortunately for analysis this week, the course will mostly use just one of the greens. Any shots that end on the other green will be eligible for free relief. However, do note we have seen them previously alternate between the greens on a few select holes.

The ZOZO Championship and Narashino CC makes for a tricky format and course to handicap. The usual strokes gained data are not recorded without trackman travelling to Japan. A reduced field and no cut also adds a wrinkle to the format for our ZOZO Championship picks. Basically, with all golfers playing 4 rounds the cream tends to eventually rise to the top. Analysis of previous leaderboards here and from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, good drive percentage should be a useful stat this week. It doesn’t necessarily matter if you are long off the tee or straight, just that you do one. If you can have both, that is certainly a bonus but reduces the pool largely to the elite.

Another key to our guidance this week is approach from 150-200 yards. Golfers will see 1.5-2 strokes more within this bracket each round, depending on driving distance. This means roughly 60% of approach will fall within this yardage. Looking through prior leaderboards, players who have played well here are also high in the rankings within this yardage.

Tree-lined fairways are carpeted with zoysiagrass. This unique grass is polarizing and seen rarely on the PGA Tour. Some golfers have remarked they like that this sturdy grass acts like your balls is teed up. Others golfers have lamented that the grass can produce flyers.

Finally, a solid short game is imperative. With a winning score likely to end in the -15 to -18 range again, key up and downs are key to maintaining momentum to compile a score.

Course Comps for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Last year’s winner, Keegan Bradley, provides a guide to course comps for our ZOZO Championship picks. Prior to his victory, he had also recorded a 7th and 13th in his three starts. TPC River Highlands, where he also won the Travelers Championship, has formlines as well as using similar bentgrass greens. Brendan Steele was runner up here on his first look and has 9 Top 25s at TPC River Highlands from 12 starts.

Bradley is also a winner at Firestone Country Club (former host of the Bridgestone Invitiational). Tiger Woods holds a ridiculous record there, and won on his sole start here in 2019 for perhaps his last PGA Tour victory. I dislike using Tiger as a guide, as he simply won almost everywhere he played. But 2019 Tiger was quite a different proposition, so it does seem relevant he won on first look here.

I also generally dislike using Augusta as a comp, as it obviously attracts the best field in golf. However, treelined fairways and undulations visually provide a comparison. Xander Schauffele won the Olympics gold medal in Tokyo 2020 and has finished in the top 10 at The Masters in 50% of his starts.

Xander is also a winner at The Old White TPC (former host of the Greenbrier Classic). Sebastian Munoz provides further links, finishing 4th at Narashino Country Club and a record of 3rd and 7th at The Old White TPC.

Finally, other zoysia fairway courses of TPC Southwind and TPC Craig Ranch can be used for approach play on this unique grass type.

Weather Forecast for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Weather forecast for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Weather could well be a factor across the first two days for our ZOZO Championship picks. Thursday morning has a small chance of fog delays and will be cold. Winds will pick up throughout the day, with gusts around 20mph from early afternoon. However, prevailing winds will remain relatively moderate.

Friday morning will again experience lower winds, before building substantially later in the afternoon. Winds could reach as high as 25mph prevailing with gusts above 40mph.

Although there are condensed tee times with the reduced field, there remains potential for a weather edge there. Those going off earliest on Friday morning should experience an advantage for at least 9 holes. If any fog delays do occur or there is a substantial temperature difference on Thursday, we could potentially see the edge move across both the first two rounds. I certainly don’t see the edge being sufficient to completely rule out a player from your player pool. However, it should play a factor in your decisions this week. Especially, in situations when deciding between two similar players for DFS purposes.

ZOZO Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Favourite
5pt E/W +800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Davis
4pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2pt E/W +4000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Tom Hoge – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +200 (Unibet)

Michael Kim
0.5pt E/W +10000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +240 (William Hill)

Summary

Thank you reading our ZOZO Championship picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Make sure you are linked in to your premium channel, as we often have exclusive betting plays within the Discord channels.

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Shriners Children’s Open Picks: Everything You Need to Know About TPC Summerlin

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
TPC Summerlin plays host to the Shriners Children's Open picks

Time flies when you’re having fun (or getting old). It’s 12 months since I was meeting up with our fellow WinDaily Sports superstar and fellow golf data nerd Spencer Aguiar (aka @TeeOffSports). We had an awesome time exploring TPC Summerlin and watching our Shriners Children’s Open picks during the first round in 2022. Work and child commitments meant I needed to fly back to New Zealand after a whistle stop 16 hours in Vegas.

But before leaving, we did get to witness one of the greatest shots of the year from Sungjae Im. We were standing by the green waiting for the group to play up and could not even see Im down in the waste area. He managed to produce the spectacular:

YouTube player

The Week Just Been

It was a week of close calls for us on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour last week. At the Sanderson Farms Championship, our 200/1 selection Zecheng Dou was close to another first round leader. He bogeyed the last to miss out on the places at equivalent odds of +4000. We did however cash Top 20 and Top 40 bets on him at +500 and +200. We also cash a Top 40 on Vince Whaley at +170 and a Top 20 for Erik Van Rooyen +233 (reduced under dead-heat rules).

Over in Europe, sadly the Alfred Dunhill Links was heavily affected by adverse weather conditions. Heavy flooding saw two days abandoned and the tournament reduced to 54 holes with all professionals playing the three rounds. Matthew Southgate surged into the lead, only to be caught down the stretch by Matthew Fitzpatrick. His 2nd place finish cashes a full place at +1320 and our Top 20 at +260. Another huge priced outside Jeff Winther was our next near miss. Selected at 250/1, he finished just one shot outside the a place payout at +5000 in 10th. We cash a Top 20 at +750 and a Top 40 at +320.

All up, we finish the week with a small profit and a tinge of what could have been.

TPC Summerlin Course Analysis

Host for our Shriners Children’s Open picks is TPC Summerlin, an oasis in the desert of Las Vegas. The course plays as a par 71 at 7,255 yards. I’ve seen a lot of rhetoric, as we often do, that driving distance is an advantage here. Yes, driving distance is always an advantage at any golf course. Statistically, driving distance doesn’t have a massive predictive factor on final result here. We have seen both long drivers and accurate drivers find success here. Part of this is as a result of the course playing shorter than it’s yardage due to the high altitude and thinner air.

Approach does see an uptick for shots under 150 yards, with an additional two approach shots within this range. This is a combination of no truly drivable par 4 and of the 3 par 5s one is a long 606 yards and another features a gnarly second shot over water if going for it.

Primarily we see a significant uptick in SG: Putting and, secondly, SG: Around-The-Green. This correlates with an increase in bogey avoidance and birdie % here. It is no surprise that Cantlay has found such success on this course, having been in the top 5 on the PGA Tour for birdie percentage for the last couple of years.

Course Comps for our Shriners Children’s Open Picks

The somewhat generic nature of TPC Summerlin is also reflected in the course comps this week. No one course stands out as a common thread between the course analysis and performance here. Where we do see correlation is on the leaderboards on other desert courses.

The American Express is played in the desert of neighbouring California. This has the added benefit of seeing an uptick in approach from under 150 yards and a heavy emphasis on putting performance. It often turns into a birdie fest and, as Rahm famously said, “a f*cking putting contest.”

For similar reasons, TPC San Antonio and the Valero Texas Open shows some correlation to TPC Summerlin leaderboards. Another desert course where the driver is somewhat neautralized, but with a heavy emphasis on the short game particularly around the green.

Finally, don’t discount form from the DP World Tour at the Dubai Desert Classic. The tournament always attracts one of the strongest fields on the DP to -World Tour. It is a Rolex Series event and they also pay generous appearance fees. Scores to win there typically range from -18 to -25.

Weather for our Shriners Children’s Open Picks

There appears to be little weather edge to take advantage of this week. Thursday should see winds decrease as the day goes on. However, this will be offset somewhat by the greens firming up and getting faster in the Nevada sun. Friday morning will see winds marginally lower than in the afternoon.

Overall, I would give a small weighting on players starting Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. The edge is not substantial. Therefore, I would recommend only building a few stacks playing across those tee-times but certainly wouldn’t remove players from my player pool exclusively due to the weather forecast.

Shriners Children’s Open Picks

Suggested Staking

Adam Schenk – Your Shriners Children’s Open Picks Favourite
3pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Davis Thompson
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Lucas Herbert
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2pt E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300

Chesson Hadley – Your Shriners Children’s Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +375

Erik Van Rooyen
1.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365)
And
4pt Top 40 +175 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our Shriners Children’s Open picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Make sure you are linked in to your premium channel, as we often have exclusive betting plays within the Discord channels.

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DP World TourSports BettingPremium

Open de France Picks: Everything You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
The spectacular Le Golf National plays host to our Open de France picks

Having selected winner Vincent Norrman at 45/1 and Ryan Fox in 3rd at 40/1 at the Irish Open, it was a week of what could have been at the BMW PGA Championship. Undoubtedly, my fellow countryman Ryan Fox was a deserving winner. The composure he displayed down the final stretch was incredibly compelling. Despite the huge number of arguably bigger names breathing down his neck, Fox recovered from a triple bogey on the 3rd hole to play the final 15 at 8-under. He continues to impress in the big moments and an even bigger 2024 could well be imminent. Could he upset our Open de France picks?

A couple of those bigger names were our headline selections, with Tommy Fleetwood 14/1 and Tom Kim 25/1 sitting just one and two shots back respectively. They both managed to capitulate over the course of the final round, but it was pleasing as always to have live chances well in contention. We also cashed Top 40 bets on Shubhankar Sharma (150/1) and Julien Brun (180/1). It has also been a great year for us at the national opens, having tipped the winner at the US Open, Canadian Open, Irish Open, and British Masters. Can we follow up with a winner at the golf French Open? What a fantastic back-drop to set the scene for our Cazoo Open de France picks!

Course Analysis of the Albatros Course at Le Golf National

With another Ryder Cup just a week away, the DP World Tour returns to a former Ryder Cup venue for our Open de France picks. Le Golf National hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup, where Team Europe handed Team USA a thumping 17.5-10.5. Part of the reason can be found in the course on display this week.

This quirky course has historically provided a stern test. The event moved to October, which hosted the last two renditions in 2019 and 2022 (2020 and 2021 cancelled due to COVID-19). In those events, longer drivers had done well without excluding those lacking distance off the tee. My suspicion is that this tournament will play more as it used to, with a well documented heat wave across Europe providing the firmer conditions previously seen when this was played in summer.

Meanwhile, back to that 2018 Ryder Cup walloping, the Europe victory came down to the fact this is a tricky and positional course which nullifies driving ability. That was frustrating for the Americans, who typical strength of longer driving distance was mitigated by the elements they faced. And with a fast course presented this week, I suspect we face more of the same here for our Open de France picks.

As the multitude of water hazards and unique mounds narrowing the fairways, you’ll see players reaching for a lofted wood or iron off the tee here more often. The key then lies in driving accuracy and precise iron play. Despite the slight reversion towards driving distance the last two years, it is hard to deny Migliozzi, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Colsaerts can absolute flush their irons on their day.

Other than that, avoiding the big mistakes and plotting your way around the course is key with a winning score of -12 to -16 likely.

Comp Courses for our Open de France Picks

Firstly, I’ll note that course history is stickier here than most. Play well here, you have a significantly better chance of doing so again. If you’ve hated the course, you could be in for a tough week. Much of this comes down to the unique nature of this course, which seems rather polarizing for many players.

Celtic Manor provides extremely strong form lines and it is easy to see why. Another Ryder Cup stadium course hosting in 2010, the course features numerous water hazards and narrowing fairways. And, although Celtic Manor admittedly plays longer, that recipe is what our Open de France picks will face this week. Even visually the courses look relatively similar.

Form lines can be found through Graeme McDowall, Alex Noren, and Thongchai Jaidee have won at both golf courses. Thomas Pieters holds a 3rd at both. Jamie Donaldson a 6th and 4th. Uihlein and Sterne have a runner up at both courses. Luiten has won at Celtic Manor and finished 9th and 11th here. Colsaerts had a 4th and 18th at Celtic Manor and won at Le Golf National in 2019. Certainly, it is one of the strongest form links you will find all season.

Other notable courses include Valderrama, whose narrow tree lined fairways and quirky test holds similarities as do leaderboards. Additionally, Valderrama tests the nerve of a golfer with bogeys inevitable and similar winning scores. Your ability to maintain composure can be as important as scoring here. Other similar course guides can be found at Diamond, Eichenreid, and a Challenge Tour event in France the Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge.

Weather

Certainly, the weather looks tumultuous to say the least over the first two days. The course should receive some very welcome rain for the region on Thursday. The majority of this should occur in the morning. Notably though, this is forecast to be joined by high winds. Gusts in the morning look set to reach above 30mph consistently with prevailing winds in the mid-teens.

Conversely, Friday looks another windy day but with the best conditions in the morning. There is also no rain on the radar. I imagine we see those in the morning benefit from the moisture left in the ground. I don’t suspect this softening in the ground to last long. With high winds and sun in the afternoon, combined with a very hot and dry summer, should see the moisture burn off swiftly.

All of this leads to a firm weather edge to those going off Thursday afternoon and Friday morning over their first two rounds. The majority of our Cazoo Open de France picks come from that weather wave. Therefore, I would be giving a firm weighting of 40% of my DFS lineups favouring that side of the draw. Obviously, the weather can flip at any time and you should be monitoring this for your Open de France picks right up to lock. However, this forecast has remained consistent all week. Back it with confidence and keep your fingers crossed.

Open de France Picks

Suggested Staking

Alexander Bjork
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
2pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Connor Syme – Your Open de France Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Julien Brun
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +320 (Unibet)

Callum Shinkwin – Your Open de France Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +375 (Bet365)

James Morrison
1pt E/W +15000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +550 (Unibet)

Soren Kjeldsen
0.5pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
1pt Top 20 +800 (Bet365)
and
2pt Top 40 +275 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our Open de France picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching!

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DP World TourPremium

Everything You Need to Know for the Irish Open

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
The K Club plays as a majestic host for our Irish Open Picks

What a fabulous week it was once again for our picks at The European Masters. Alexander Bjork went extremely close to victory, an imperious Ludvig Aberg denying him the win with a stunning final 5 holes. Aberg continues to impress and is surely the most exciting prospect in European golf since Hovland and Rahm burst onto the scene. Masahiro Kawamura was put in these pages at a huge 200/1 and duly finished 8th. For those with 8 place payouts this was reduced slightly from 40/1 due a tie for 8th, but we cash full tickets on a Top 20 and Top 40. Finally, Renato Paratore at 150/1 and Ryo Hisatsune at 80/1 both finished in 13th. That was one shot off two more big place payouts and both were good for Top 20/40 options. Barring the winner, that is just about as good as it gets. With the European Ryder Cup team now set following Luke Donald’s captain’s picks, the attention turns to the magnificent K Club in County Kildare for our Irish Open Picks.

The K Club Course Analysis

The Irish Open changes venues this year, albeit to a familiar and iconic course. The Arnold Palmer North Course at The K Club perhaps most famously hosted the 2006 Ryder Cup. The Europeans romped to a 9 point victory that year. Hopefully, you already got on Europe at +210 per our recommendation in the WinDaily Sports Discord. They have since narrowed to just +125 with multiple players in excellent form.

The course also previously hosted one edition of the Irish Open in 2016 and was the previous host for the European Open between 1995-2007.

Perusing those leaderboards and data, there are a few key metrics that standout. The winner here has also led the field in Greens In Regulation for the last three tournaments. The course puts an emphasis on excellent approach play, particularly from 125-175 yards.

Finding fairways is also a key here. With numerous water hazards of the tee and trees right up to the fairway, keeping the ball in play is imperative. Despite it’s length on paper of 7,441 yards, there are two par 5s over 580 yards eating a lot of that yardage. Conversely, there are no short par 4s seeing an average length of an approachable 438 yards for the par 4s. Nobody has really come here and dominated it with the driver. Driving accuracy should be your guide.

Comp Courses for our Irish Open Picks

Immediately looking at the course, it always strikes me as very similar to the Brabazon Course at The Belfry. With the British Masters held in May, this also provides at least a smattering of similar recent form being held less than 3 months ago. Both rely heavily on excellent approach play and driving accuracy, with each dotted with water hazards significantly in play.

There are also some strong links to leaderboards at the European Masters host Crans-sur-Sierre. Collin Montgomerie, Lee Westwood, Mathias Gronberg all won at both. Michael Campbell won at The K Club and had a 2nd at Crans. Graeme Storm and Paul Lawrie had a runner-up at both. Bradley Dredge and Constantino Rocca both had a runner-up at K Club, then won and also had a 2nd place finish at Crans. Admittedly, some of these names were at the height of their powers in Europe at the time. But the correlation between some of the lower tiered names should not be discounted so readily. This also has the added benefit given the tournament was hosted at Crans just last week, allowing for some strong recent form.

Weather

As always, I should caution any conversation about weather when it comes with Ireland to the simple fact it is more volatile than other regions of the world. Weather does frequently develop over the Atlantic and move over the island, leading to the copious green pastures that Ireland is famous for.

It has also been a notoriously bad summer in the region. Heavy rain should see the rough plenty thick and juicy, with the fairways playing slow and soft. This should lead to a further increase in driving accuracy. Holding the fairway should be easier if found and the penalty for missing more severe.

Thursday AM looks to be the calmest conditions of that day, before winds gradually increase into the evening. Friday promises calm conditions all day with ideal scoring conditions. No strong advantage appears at time of writing for any particular tee-time.

Irish Open Picks

Golf Betting Tips and Suggested Staking

Ryan Fox – Your Irish Open Picks Favourite
2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Vincent Norrman
2pts E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Thorbjorn Olesen
1pt E/W +6600 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (TAB)

Eddie Pepperell – Your Irish Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Jorge Campillo
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +450 (TAB)

James Morrison
0.5pt +35000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +800 (Bet365)
And
3pt Top 40 +333 (TAB)

Soren Kjeldsen
0.5pt +40000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1100 (TAB)
And
3pt Top 40 +400 (TAB)

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Summary

Thank you reading our Irish Open picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

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