Before we get into the American Express preview, a quick word on last week’s golf. It was another week of near misses for us on the PGA Tour at the Sony Open. All 7 of our betting selections for the week made the cut. We again had several contenders, with 3 players in the Top 10 for the second consecutive week. The most likely of those was Russell Henley, who looked a likely winner for much of Sunday. Sitting at -8 through 13 holes, he unfortunately got the speed wobbles to play his final 5 holes at +1 and miss a play-off by a single stroke. We cash a top 5 place on him at +625.
Our best value bet was Emiliano Grillo, selected at 80/1. He just missed a top 5 and cashed his top 20 at +350. Also included was Zac Blair in 30th, who was priced at 250/1. For DFS, he was $6,300 and just 3% owned. This provided a great salary saving and leverage on the rest of the field. He easily cashed our Top 40 bet at a generous +333. All promising signs from the golf ahead of our American Express preview.
Fact is, there is always an element of luck when it comes to any sport. Overall, the process is looking very sound after a fantastic first two weeks of the season. Eventually, we will see some big winners convert as the season unfolds and the more our selections remain in close contention. It’s a strong golf tournament this week, with a decent field rivalling those seen in designated events, but we will speak about some of the inherent volatility this week in our American Express preview.
The American Express is the first golf tournament we preview in what I’ve colloquially dubbed “course rotation season”. That will of course be followed by two other pro-am events, with the Farmers Insurance Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to follow. This can prove a nightmare for many golf punters and DFS players alike.
Of the three courses on offer, La Quinta Country Club is both the shortest at 7,060 par 72 and the easiest for scoring. The majority of these holes are very short. There are just two par 4s over 450 yards, sitting at 454 and 469 yards which is pretty standard on the PGA Tour. The four par 5s are all under 547 yards and should be reachable in two for almost all of the field.
The other two golf courses at PGA West, the Nicklaus Stadium Course and the Pete Dye Stadium Course, are about 100 yards longer and a little more difficult. Driving distance does become more of a consideration at these courses. Par 5 scoring is essential on all three courses. Therefore, having a modicum of length of the tee is a real bonus. With three rounds played on these courses, with all golfers playing the Pete Dye Stadium Course again on Sunday, we have seen an uptick in correlation between driving distance and success at this event.
Then, of course, there is the infamous Jon Rahm quote where we referred to the tournament as a “putting contest”. There may have been some more fruitful language in the full quote. In some ways, he is completely right. A score of -25 to -30 will be required here. With that comes the unpredictability of this event. Therefore, it should be no surprise the average odds of the eventual winner have been a whopping 130/1.
It should also be no surprise in our American Express Golf Preview that course history is not that influential at PGA West. Given the volatility that comes with this tournament, it follows that prior course form isn’t a fantastic predictor of performance. Of course, if a golfer has a great history at this event it can still play a factor in your decision. Conversely, I’m not going to be overly penal on a golfer if they don’t have a stellar history at this tournament.
The AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch could provide a good parallel. The tournament is on another desert course with equally low scoring. Since moving to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, the tournament has been won at -25, -26, and -23.
Finally, the Shriners Children’s Open played in the desert of Las Vegas bears consideration. It is another low-scoring affair where you need to shoot -6 every day to remain in contention. The short par 4s on that course are a nice correlation. Additionally, as is the uptick in SG: Putting required at TPC Summerlin.
A short word on the weather. Obviously, with three different golf courses in-play there are a confluence of factors that make any developing weather edge more difficult to discern. In positive news, the winds look dead still for the first three days of the tournament. A little wind and rain may move into the region on Sunday. It will be insufficient to put any halt on the birdie-fest.
Thank you for reading my American Express Golf preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for the American Express, read this article here.
Premium customers can also find these in the WinDaily Premium Discord in the golf bets channel.
A golf betting article will also follow, with player profiles of our selections. To be released approximately 6am ET on 18 January.
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The DP World Tour remains in Dubai for another week for one of the season highlights. As a Rolex Series event, this is not only one of the best fields but also one of the largest purses. The list of past winners reads as a who’s who of European golf. It is often a marker of golfers we can expect big futures from. Included in that list is Rory McIlroy. I met a curly haired 16 year old amateur McIlroy here in 2006. He would achieve his first ever tournament win here in 2009 and has thrice lifted the famous coffee pot trophy. Emirates Golf Club was also my home course for the 8 years I lived in Dubai. Hopefully, that additional local experience helps our Dubai Desert Classic preview.
As frustrated as Rory will be after the inaugural Dubai Invitational, where he really should have won, it is perhaps easy to feel the same about our week. However, I feel quietly positive after the tournament. It was always going to be a tricky event to tip. Firstly, markets were dominated by McIlroy and eventual champion Tommy Fleetwood at very short single figure odds. Further, the golf course had not been used on tour for 24 years. It took some extensive diving into 1990s leaderboards!
I was pleased to see our extra deep-dive analysis proved true. We nailed the winning score, our course comps worked perfectly, and key metrics were spot on. Frustratingly, our three golfers named as last off the card all made the top 10 with Thriston Lawrence runner-up. Overall, I take it as a positive our analysis was so accurate. It bodes well entering our Dubai Desert Classic preview and the season as a whole.
The Majilis course at Emirates Golf Club plays host to the Dubai Desert Classic, as we preview what to expect from the golf course this week. This venue has held the tournament since 1989, except for 1999 and 2000 when last week’s Dubai Invitational venue Dubai Creek hosted briefly. Whereas Dubai Creek is a short and narrow course, the Emirates is a long and expansive property. The Majilis course plays as a 7,428 yard par 72 and is one of the longest golf courses on the DP World Tour.
That provides the first clue of what is required for success here. A strong driver is well correlated to success here. Rory McIlroy is obviously one of the best in the business with that club. Bryson DeChambeau is a past champion with a record of 18-1-8 here. Other past champions Lucas Herbert and Viktor Hovland can send the ball out there, as can Sergio Garcia who is both long and straight with the driver.
Our second clue comes from approach play. Obviously, several of those already named are some of the best ball-strikers in the business. Names like Paul Casey, Lee Westwood, Tyrrell Hatton, and Ian Poulter add to that list. Putting also receives an uptick here compared to other golf courses.
The bulk of scoring will happen on the back 9. That features 3 par 5s and the par 4 17th which is drivable if you cut the corner. This culminates in dramatic final hole, with a carry over water required if going for the green in two. It always make for an exhilarating end of the round. Being able to draw the ball is a big positive, with majority of key holes playing right-to-left.
Firstly, it pays to highlight in our Dubai Desert Classic preview that prior course form is vitally important. This is the most correlated golf course on the DP World Tour for prior form as a predictor to future success. We have seen a number of players become course specialists. Perhaps none more so than Stephen Gallacher. He held an insane record here of 10-2-1-1-3-MC-9 between 2011 and 2017. 20% of his career Top 5s came right here.
There has also been a link between the Majilis Course and Augusta National. Both Danny Willett and Sergio Gracia won The Masters they same year they lifted the Dubai Desert Classic trophy. Although the struggles of Rory at The Masters are well documented, part of the frustrations come from the fact he has also recorded 7 Top 10s.
Spaniards have always done well here. Golf on the Iberian Peninsula provides a good guide to Middle East golf. This is likely a combination of warmer weather, coastal winds, and the creativity required especially on approach. Garcia, Cabrera-Bello, Quiros, Jimenez, Olazabal, and Seve Ballesteros have all won here. The Seve factor often plays a part for Spanish golfers.
Neighbouring Jumeirah Golf Estates, host of the DP World Tour Championship, is a good guide. It ticks a driver friendly course with low scoring, comfortability in Dubai, and performance in a high class field featuring the best golfers of the year.
Eichenreid is notoriously a brutal driving course and has very strong links. Haotong Li, Hovland, Stenson, Els, Willett, Jimenez, Bjorn, and Montgomerie have all won at both golf courses. If we extend that to runner-ups, the list is even more extensive.
It would be remiss to not speak about weather in any Dubai Desert Classic preview. The Middle Eastern tournaments are notorious for onshore breezes. With hot coastal locations like this, the land heats up throughout the day. As the land heats up, so does the air above it which then rises. This creates an area of low pressure, and see colder air from over the ocean rush onto land.
This used to be so predictable that I always tried to play the back 9 first if playing an afternoon tee-time. The winds would come in around 1pm, remaining for 3-4 hours before fading towards dusk. It meant avoiding a really tough stretch of holes from 6 to 9 into the wind. Winds have played a large part in many tournaments, none more so than in 2020 when wind specialist Lucas Herbert was victorious.
Currently, our premium modelling suggest winds look very high on the Wednesday but relatively calm during tournament play Thursday-Sunday. We will keep a sharp eye on this as the week develops, as any wave advantage here can often be very distinct and clear.
Make sure you check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start.
Thank you for reading my Dubai Desert Classic preview and deep-dive tournament analysis.
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With the DP World Tour kicking off their 2024 season, golf is officially back! Of course, The Sentry kicked off proceedings on the PGA Tour last week and we rocketed to +140% ROI after the first event. However, in lieu of taking early retirement for the year and letting that record stand, I though it was only right to deliver all our avid readers with at least a Dubai Invitational preview.
It is the return of the DP World Tour, but also a return to a previously used course for our Dubai Invitational preview. The DP World Tour heads back to Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club for the first time since 2000. First opened in 1993, it was designed by Karl Litten. He also is the designer behind the Emirates Golf Club Majlis Course, where next week’s Dubai Desert Classic is held.
The course is a short par 71 at just 7,059 yards. The average length of par 4s and par 5s is only 449 yards. That is comparable to PGA National and Harbour Town on the PGA Tour. With a small field of just 60 golfers, it should be an intriguing event.
The picturesque Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club hosted both the 1999 and 2000 Dubai Desert Classic, the only iterations held away from the Emirates Golf Club, before returning to the Majilis Course where it has remained since. The course also hosted a MENA Tour tournament in 2017, the Dubai Creek Open. You can find that leaderboard here, and it is 2nd place finisher Todd Clements providing some guidance this week.
Fact is, with a (basically) new golf course we have to take some educated guesses here for our Dubai Invitational preview. Luckily, you are in slightly more informed hands with me. I lived in Dubai 8 years growing up and learning golf. I was a member at Emirates Golf Club and played Dubai Creek as a very bad junior golfer.
For me, Dubai Creek is quite a contrast to Emirates Golf Club. Dubai Creek is heavily guarded by water, either from the Dubai Creek itself or other man-made lakes internally. Fairways are narrow and pinch in at key points. The penalty for missing is severe. And that is where Todd Clements comes in.
The only strength to Clements game is his driving accuracy. This is affirmed when looking into the very limited data left from those two Dubai Desert Classic tournaments. The vast majority of the top 10 were inside the top 20 for driving accuracy across their rounds.
The two tournaments were won at -13 and -14, but note the -13 for the MENA Tour was a 54 hole event. The standard of golf now is obviously better. And, as we have all heard this past year, the ball is travelling further. Something around -18 I suspect might be enough to get the job done this time.
Again, some guess work is required to find some parallels to other courses here for our Dubai Invitational preview. Paul McGinley finished 2nd and 3rd in the two tournaments here. One of his 4 victories is around Valderrama, another iconic narrow course held in warm climes of Spain. 2000 winner here Jose Coceres won just one other tournament, the Catalan Open in Spain, so Valderrama may be a reasonable option to consider.
McGinley was 2nd following a play-off at Le Golf National. The 1999 winner David Howell was also a runner-up at the Open de France. Jamie Spence recorded a 2nd place finish there, alongside a 4th place finish in the 2000 tournament here. Visually, this makes a lot of sense. Both feature narrow fairways with copious amounts of water in-play.
A few form lines run though Portugal and Madeira, but they lead to dead-ends with the courses no longer featuring on the DP World Tour. We are talking about tournaments some 25 years ago after all. For perspective, Justin Rose played both events finishing 125th and 136th. But to be fair, he was 18 years old at the time… Outside those two courses, I believe a general aptitude on the Iberian Peninsula holds some appeal.
I do believe this is different to the other Dubai based golf courses on the DP World Tour. However, general positive performances in the region are a positive.
A brief word on weather for our Dubai Invitational preview. Dubai Creek Golf course is very exposed to any wind. In prior iterations, winds have played a significant part in at least one round. Dubai does have a fairly reliable onshore breeze. As the land heats up air rises, so cooler winds from over the ocean rush onto land. When living there, this was almost like clockwork and would arrive around 1pm. It would then blow heavily until the early evening when it would begin to ease slightly.
However, the rejigged DP World Tour schedule has seen these events move slightly earlier in the year. Cooler temperatures means this effect is less likely. This is winter after all, so temperature will be in the low to mid 20s. That is 70-75F for those of you with metric challenges.
Current forecasts show only moderate winds for all four days. That is perhaps welcome relief for the golfers, as the number of shots where you need to tread close to water would become infinitely more difficult with wind in the picture.
Thank you for reading my Dubai Invitational preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for the Dubai Invitational, you can find these here.
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Most One and Done golf contests will begin this week at the Sony Open. I have compiled your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive some One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. Even if you don’t play One and Done, it is well worth a bookmark to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year. If you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article.
Well, you can’t ask for much better a start to the year than that! Before we delve into our Sony Open preview proper, it pays to reflect on a fabulous first week of the PGA Tour season. Although we unfortunately dropped Chris Kirk off our final betting card, we had a stunner of a tournament.
Our tips included Theegala in 2nd. He lipped out in the 18th for a play-off, and also delivered us a first-round leader at a massive 60/1!
As well as talking through our favourite PGA DFS plays, we always end the PGA Draftcast with a few FRL tips. Although I wouldn’t consider them “official” bets per se, it’s always a fun way to end the episode and nice to get a big winner!
Subscribe to WinDaily Sports on YouTube and catch the PGA Draftcast every Tuesday 9PM ET here.
We also had Spieth in 3rd, who looked comfortable in a welcome return to form. Sungjae Im finished 5th. He broke the record for most birdies in a single tournament in PGA Tour history and somehow didn’t win, when an even par 3rd round 73 putting paid to his chances. Straka in 12th also cashed our Top 20 bet on him.
Basically, should Kirk have stumbled we had every other realistic option for the winner. To his credit, he looked incredibly calm under pressure and never looked stressed despite a studded leaderboard breathing down his neck. We should probably raise our expectations on his output, as he has looked so comfortable in both victories the past two years.
Before we get into the Sony Open, you can now read not only our free preview at The Sentry here but also get free access to our premium article from last week with our Sentry betting tips and player profiles here.
Nearly all Sony Open previews I read every year will refer to trends. My advice is to approach these with caution. A trend is only worthy of attention if there is an understandable reason why. Correlation does not always mean causation. The most prevalent trend will be some form of “X number of winners of the Sony Open also played at The Sentry the week prior”.
Is there merit to this claim? Fact is, The Sentry typically features the very best players of the PGA Tour the year before. So, it’s unsurprising that those who play the Sony Open tend to go off as favourites and often win in a typically weak field.
I do believe there is an advantage in having played the week prior, to acclimatize and shake the off-season rust. However, I do believe this trend is over-played. I will often see punters and DFS players completely excluding any players who didn’t start the week prior at The Sentry. That is a huge overreaction to a tentative link at best.
The PGA Tour does indeed remain in Hawaii for another week. The Sony Open is once again played on the beautiful Wai’alae Country Club, as we preview what to expect from this golf course. The tournament has been held at the same venue since 1965, so we have plenty of data to delve into!
Part of my perspective on trends comes from the fact that Wai’alae Country Club is as opposite as possible to last week’s Plantation Course at Kapalua. Plantation is huge, both in length of the course and width of the fairways. In contrast, Wai’alae is narrow and fiddly. Actually, Wai’alae Country Club had the largest deviation from normal driving distance of any golf course on the PGA Tour in 2023.
Therefore, unsurprisingly driving accuracy is a strong predictor of success. Much of that comes from the narrow fairways, but also overhanging trees. In 2023, the rough was grown out to 3 inches from 2.25 inches in 2022. Bermuda rough is tough to play. It can really grab onto the club face, as well as produce flyer lies. 3 inches is the longest the PGA Tour have had for Bermuda rough, only previous seen at the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational. That saw a reduction in scoring with -18 enough to win.
With large greens, it is surprising that SG: ATG is such a strong predictor of success here. The main defense for the course are the Hawai’i trade winds and this could be one explainer. As the weather shows some heavy rains before the tournament, I would hazard a prediction we see an uptick in SG: Putting instead with softer surfaces easier to hold. Approach between 150-175 yards is higher than other PGA Tour courses. 63% of all shots will occur from 125-200 yards.
Prior form at Wai’alae Country Club is highly correlated to success. The correlation of prior performance as a predictor of future success is the 2nd highest of any golf course on the PGA Tour. Augusta National is the highest, by quite some margin.
El Cameleon Mayakoba is a very good guide to our Sony Open preview. The golf course was the prior host of the Worldwide Technology Championship. Then, course designer Greg Norman claimed it back for LIV Golf to use. In 15 iterations of the WWT Mayakoba Championship, 6 also won the Sony Open. Henley completed the double most recently in 2022. It is a narrow test, where driving accuracy is weighted heavily, and is played in tropical and coastal climes.
RBC Heritage host Habour Town Golf Links is another narrow test by the ocean, as is RSM Classic host Sea Island GC. Colonial Country Club receives inclusion, given it’s propensity for SG: ATG and similar approach buckets of 125-200 yards.
To begin, it is worth a preview of the weather forecast before the Sony Open starts. Heavy rains and thunderstorms are predicted Monday, Tuesday, and early Wednesday this week. The volume of rain will be such that it will be impossible to firm out the course in time and conditions will be soft. As such, I would really be focusing on the key approach numbers listed. I also give a boost to SG: Putting over typical tournaments held here. Holding greens should be easier than previous iterations.
Thursday should present calm weather and, given the early rain, should provide low scoring. Friday sees light rain and overcast conditions all day. Winds should pick up, but they look to be high all day. This means there is less chance of a weather wave developing. Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is especially important for DFS purposes.
Thank you for reading my Sony Open preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for the Sony Open, premium customers can find these here.
For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.
JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $USD240!
That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $449.99.
You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.
One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have
I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
Over the last ten years, golf one and done contests have continued to surge in popularity. It is easy to see why. One and done leagues are easy to understand, you are rarely ever out of the competition, and it provides a fun way to follow your golf season. Increasingly, these contests have seen the ability to play for real money and bigger prizes. This year, golf one and done competitions have a few factors to take into account when making your decisions. With the majority of competitions starting at next week’s Sony Open, it seemed the optimal time to compile your ultimate guide to the 2024 One and Done golf season!
Most readers have likely already played in a one and done before, but it is probably worthy a few lines to recap how these contests work. In a one and done competition, players will usually pick one golfer for each tournament during the season. Once a golfer has been selected, they are then unavailable to be selected again during the year. Hence, the name “one and done”. Players are rewarded with prize money earned by the golfer in the tournament. The player with the most accumulated money across the season is the winner.
Unlike other fantasy golf contests, you are rarely completely out of a one and done competition. One big win, even late in the season, can give you enough prize money to catapult you back into contention. It provides a fun way to stay engaged with golf throughout the season.
The first action you should take is learning the rules of your contest. You should obviously know at which tournament your contest begins. But, just as importantly, you need to be aware what is the last tournament when your competition ends. You would be astounded how many times I hear of OAD players left still holding an elite player because they thought they would use them in the Tour Championship, but their season ended at the BMW Championship. Formulate a plan with how you will approach the year, and you will already be ahead of many of your competitors.
Finally, for smaller One and Done golf leagues you can play safer as you will need less money accumulated to take out a top prize. The larger the league, the more risks and money you will need to earn over the season to win.
Once you know the general rules for your one and done, I highly recommend mapping out your season. Specifically, not all tournaments are built equally in terms of the prize pool available. Additionally, you don’t want to be left trying to fit 5 elite golfers into 4 tournaments at the end of the year. I’m not suggesting you should know exactly where you will play each golfer at the beginning of the season. But plot a rough plan of how you will approach the season.
Key to this are the signature events, majors, and playoffs. A typical season will consist of 31 tournaments (Sony Open until the BMW Championship, with Zurich Classic excluded). But not all events are built equal. The 7 signature events, The Players, the 4 majors, The Players, and the 2 playoff events account for 65% of the total money available from the One and Done golf season. Individual prizes are roughly double what they are in the other events. Pick the winner in a couple of these events and you are already on your way to a successful One and Done golf season!
Obviously, we are going to want to use our best golfers during these events. It wouldn’t make sense to burn a Rory McIlroy at the Valero Texas Open when your potential return is so much greater elsewhere. The signature events do have one positive: they are all no cut events, so you are guaranteed a payday.
Then there is the question of LIV Golf players. Unless a miraculous deal is finalised and they’re granted immediate access to the remainder of the PGA Tour season, they will only be available for selection in the 4 majors. Very few have guaranteed qualification, although they can still qualify for the US Open and The Open Championship.
Next, I have formed three lists of players. Firstly, elite stud players you will absolutely want to use in signature events, playoffs, or majors. These 6 golfers are the only golfers who average over +2 SG: Total over the field for the last 12 months.
Elite Studs
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
You can likely add Max Homa to that list, who was just under +2 SG: Total for the past year but was +2.23 SG: Total over the past 6 months.
The only other golfer to earn over +2 SG: Total for the last 12 months is, of course, Jon Rahm. He makes the next list of LIV Elite Studs. In my opinion, you want to use at least two of these in the majors (Jon Rahm plus Brooks Koepka) and probably three (Cam Smith).
LIV Elite Studs
Jon Rahm
Brooks Koepka
Cam Smith
Dustin Johnson
Bryson DeChambeau
Joaquin Niemann?
Those first 5 golfers have guaranteed entry to all four majors, but I may also look to another option in Joaquin Niemann. However, he only currently has access to The Open Championship following his win in the Australian Open. He could still qualify for the US Open through normal qualification process.
Overall, this forms a strong base to begin planning your One and Done golf season.
Finally, there are the sub-elite golfers. These are solid picks who I more than likely want to play at some point during the One and Done golf season. I will possibly use some in the signature events, particularly at courses where they have good history or if they hit hot form during the season. Otherwise, they are solid plays in tournaments outside the signature events where they will often go off towards the top of betting markets.
Sub-Elite (ranked in order of preference)
You can find a full list of the 50 golfers with guaranteed signature event starts in 2024 here.
Certainly, this list is a lot more fluid. As you move further down that board, more questions will come into play such as injury concerns or regaining form. However, that will reveal itself as the season goes on. We can remain dynamic with these plays and slot them in later during the season, including any other golfers who inevitably emerge as the One and Done golf year unfolds.
Another factor in your decision making should be the course on offer each week. Of course, different golfers have various aspects of a game which are a strength for them. You would prefer not to use a bomber at a tight fiddly course where accuracy is at a premium, such as Sedgefield Country Club. Likewise, you wouldn’t to use a shorter hitter at a course like Quail Hollow, where long drivers of the golf ball have had a distinct advantage.
Additionally, when planning your One and Done golf season you want to consider course history. There are always a few new golf courses every season. Other courses have remained on the PGA Tour for quite some time. This has seen the rise of many course experts. Players like Sam Burns at the Valspar Championship or Webb Simpson at Sedgefield come to mind. Clearly, some golfers are going to find a course where they just feel comfortable or the tournament holds special meaning.
However, this does come with a word of caution. In an age where information and golf data is now readily available, many other One and Done golf managers are going to have the same idea. You want to play your position in the league and, usually, avoid any massive spikes in golfer ownership you see develop.
That segues nicely into a conversation on ownership. I have to give credit to my friend Rick Gehman for the inspiration to this segment. He put together this excellent video on One and Done golf player deployment and the data was astounding.
I found it amazing that Rory McIlroy had already been used by 50% of users by mid-March. Scottie Scheffler had been used by nearly 60% of player by The Masters! It raises a really good way to make yourself different. By keeping a few of your elite studs towards later in the season, you are creating leverage on your competitors.
Obviously, you could get unlucky and a high owned player ends up spiking a win for the masses. But you are nearly always better to avoid the chalk. The same applies in the regular PGA Tour stops. There will certainly be circumstances where a player like Russell Henley ends up the betting favourite, with a huge ownership percentage in a lower tier event where the fields are weaker. Again, you should probably avoid the chalk in such circumstances.
In larger leagues, you might want to consider some riskier plays at the beginning of the year. If both Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth look healthy, you could consider playing them at say the Phoenix Open and RBC Heritage for example. Playing some of the bigger names early who have either been injured or struggling for form comes with risks. But the majority of players will feel the same, wanting to save them until they feel a bit more certain of their status. Should a riskier but low-owned choice spike a win for you, you’ve set up your season nicely with your studs still in hand where others have already burned them.
Finally, you want to play your situation as the season develops. If you are front-running, you can play a bit safer. Take a risk adverse approach and let the pack chase you. Again, you don’t want to be playing the obvious mega-chalk. But you don’t need to roll the dice looking for some obscure option.
Conversely, if you find yourself significantly off the lead, you will need to take some risks. You’ll want to still save your studs until others have burned them. But you may wish to look for some alternative plays later in the season in the higher money signature events, deviating from your original plan. You would be hoping to get lucky, picking a winner that few others are on. Again, this is particularly true for larger contests with many other entries.
And, of course, we are talking about golf. Anything can happen! Players will get injured. Some will be badly out of form. New, unexpected talent will emerge and suddenly become popular must plays. Remaining dynamic and prepared to change your original plan is essential to adapting to the situation you face at the time.
This doesn’t supersede the golden rules though. Use all your studs; you don’t want to be left holding both Hovland and Scheffler in the last week of your contest. Make your picks every week; having a non-starter is criminal and obviously hinders your chances. And never give up; there are some huge purses to play for at the end of the season and anything can happen!
What follows next is a complete breakdown of every tournament this season.
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As we enter into an overview of the year ahead, I’ll reiterate that this should not be seen as the sole way to approach your One and Done golf season. Your individual strategy will depend on many different factors. I am also writing this on January 6th. So, if you plan on bookmarking this page and referring back to it throughout the year, take this into account as invariably the PGA Tour will develop and change.
I’ve broken down each course, giving a very brief outlook on the type of course and what style golfer may benefit. Then, I have included some potential players you may want to consider deploying at each event. Again, take this with a grain of salt. It remains unclear how many additional PGA Tour tournaments those who have qualified for the Signature events will end up playing.
Course: Waialae Country Club
Purse: $8.3m
Potential Players: Corey Conners, Justin Rose, Brian Harman
This narrow course is the polar opposite of the Plantation Course at Kapalua, host of The Sentry. Driving accuracy is at a premium here, with tree-lined fairways and very thick rough adding to the challenge. Winds are a defense here as well, with SG: ATG ranking heavily as a predictive factor. It is an advantage to have played the week prior at The Sentry, as is prior form here which ranks 2nd only to Augusta National in strength of correlation.
Course: Pete Dye Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course & La Quinta
Purse: $8.4m
Potential Players: Adam Hadwin, Cam Davis, Andrew Putnam, Tom Hoge
The first tournament of course rotation season. In this case, using three courses before finishing with an additional round at the Pete Dye Stadium Course. This is the tournament which Jon Rahm famously labelled as a “Piece of sh*t f*cking setup. Putting contest week”, before winning the event in 2023. Scoring is low and you’ll need to find a golfer who can reach close to -25 to -30 if they want to secure the win. As such, it tends to be a volatile event.
Course: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South and North Courses)
Purse: $9.0m
Potential Players: Wyndham Clark, Jason Day, Sungjae Im
Our second in the course rotation trifecta. Fortunately, in this case three rounds are played on the South Course with the North Course only played for one of the first two rounds prior to the cut. The North Course is substantially the easier of the two. This is a bomber heavy course and a strong driver of the golf ball is a great asset.
Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Russell Henley, Tom Kim, Max Homa
Our final course rotation tournament of three and our first signature event in the regular One and Done rota. PGA Tour were keen to have this as a signature event not just because of the iconic Pebble Beach course, but also the pro-am element and the opportunity to look after their sponsors. Again, three of the rounds will be at one course (Pebble Beach) with just the sole round at Spyglass Hill. Pebble Beach can’t be overpowered and sees a disproportionate number of shots from 100-150 yards as a result. Given some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour, alongside SG: APP you’ll need a sharp short-game here.
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Purse: $8.8m
Potential Players: Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley
I am intrigued to see what happens with the WM Phoenix Open this year. Colloquially known as the People’s Open, the event sees itself demoted to a regular season event and sandwiched between two signature events. Whether this results in a reduced quality of field and who takes this as a rest week remains to be seen. The course is a well-rounded test of a golfer’s game and has typically seen the cream rise to the top. It’ll be interesting to see how much of that crop shows up. If Scheffler is the only big name that returns looking for his three-peat he probably wins, although you should keep him in your stash for a bigger payday. Let others blow their ownership and look for greener pastures. With rather large greens at over 7,000 sq ft, don’t discount a solid putter here along with sharp iron play.
Course: Riviera Country Club
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay
Along with The Sentry host the Plantation course at Kapalua, this is one of the best form guides for Augusta National on Tour. Jon Rahm of course won both tournaments before slipping on the green jacket in 2023. You may want to jump on the future odds for the winner at The Masters as they will inevitable dive after this event. Part of that is down to the undulating nature of this course. You will rarely have a flat approach shot, and it is skill with your irons which will prove decisive.
Course: Vidanta Vallarta
Purse: $8.1m
Potential Players: Akshay Bhatia, Brandon Wu, Alex Smalley
This birdie-fest is the sole tropical course for the One and Done golf season. Paspalum greens are pretty polarizing, their slow pace not suiting all golfers and seeing some paspalum specialists developing. Brandon Wu is a key example, finishing 2nd and 3rd here and also holding a 3rd and 7th at the Puerto Rico Open. Driving distance is a big asset here, with the average yardage for par 4s and par 5s the longest on the PGA Tour averaging 495 yards.
Defending champion Tony Finau is likely to be heavily owned at this event in a very weak field. There will be few top players travelling South of the border. If Kurt Kitayama, Patrick Rodgers, or Beau Hossler end up starting they are worthy of consideration.
Course: PGA National
Purse: $9.0m
Potential Players: Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood
We begin the Florida swing with what was formerly known as the Honda Classic. This is a difficult course with a single figure winner common, especially if the weather plays a factor. It’s perhaps unsurprising this has been a strong predictor of success at The Open. 2023 Open runner-up Sepp Straka has an excellent record here, as does former Open champion Shane Lowry.
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Cam Young
Another signature event, and a tournament where Rory McIlroy is often deployed by One and Done golf managers. If you can avoid the temptation, you should have some leverage opportunities later in the season. This is a ball-strikers golf course, with both distance and accuracy positively correlated to success. Approach over 200 yards is also key, with the longest collection of par 3s of the regular PGA Tour courses.
Course: TPC Sawgrass
Purse: $25.0m
Potential Players: Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Tom Kim
The single largest paycheck in the One and Done golf year. One of the highest correlations between driving accuracy and success of any tournament on the PGA Tour, it is easy to understand why there are such strong links between here and Wyndham Championship host Sedgefield Country Club. Scheffler is likely heavily owned, being the defending champion in the biggest purse of the season, but there are other great options available.
Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort
Purse: $8.4m
Potential Players: Sam Burns, Aaron Rai, Justin Rose, Justin Thomas
Many One and Done managers will simply revert to Sam Burns here, depending on whether he is playing decent golf at the time. Holding a record of 1-1-6 in his last three starts, it is easy to understand why. You should consider your position in your One and Done golf league when making that decision. The course greets players with some of the narrowest fairways on the PGA Tour, combined with incredibly thick rough and tree-lined fairways. This makes it one of the top 3 most difficult driving courses of the season. There is a disproportionate number of shots from over 200 yards, a reflection of golfers clubbing down to avoid trouble off the tee.
Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
Purse: $9.1m
Potential Players: Nicolai Hojgaard, Ryan Fox, Patrick Rodgers, Beau Hossler
This tournament has moved from the fall to the regular season, so it will be interesting to see if the course plays any different. We only have three years worth of data to go off here, but Total Driving looks to be a fairly decent predictor of success. Markedly, there are an unusual 5 par 3s on this course and a number of them are short. That makes this 7,432 yard par 70 course play even longer, with 5 par 4s over 490 yards and the 3 par 5s averaging a massive 596 yards each.
Course: TPC San Antonio
Purse: $9.2m
Potential Players: Sahith Theegala, Ludvig Aberg, Chris Kirk, Tyrrell Hatton
The PGA Tour reduce their carbon footprint just a smidge by remaining in Texas for another week, in a rare dose of common sense. The course plays shorter than what it says on the tin, with firm fairways seeing large runout from drives. The rough ranks as the least penal on the PGA Tour. Although the greens are large, they are multi-tiered meaning the actual target area is substantially reduced. Alongside approach, SG: ATG is a strong predictor of success. As the penultimate event to The Masters, it may attract some names who are seeking a warm-up before hitting Augusta National. Determining how focused those players actually are on winning this event over fine-tuning their game is a minefield.
Course: Augusta National
Purse: $18.0m
Potential Players: Cam Smith, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm
We reach the first major of the year and likely the first decision about which LIV Golf player we should deploy. I would hazard a guess that Jon Rahm is heavily deployed here as defending champion. You may be better to save him for the next major, which should also suit. Albeit, I’m not too worried about ownership on the other three obvious LIV golfers. The likes of Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, and Ludvig Aberg will also attract selection. In short, keep an eye on whether Cam Smith’s form improves throughout the year, with last year’s runner-up Brooks Koepka an option, and previous winner Dustin Johnson if you would like to get contrarian.
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Tyrrell Hatton
The tour attempts to keep the attention of casual golf fans by placing a signature event directly after the most watched tournament in golf. The merits of this can be debated, but it is nice to shake off the hangover from the first major quickly. In contrast to last week, this short and narrow test is the near opposite of Augusta National. Therefore, the course produces some of the lowest driving distance numbers on tour. With very small greens a combination of driving accuracy, precise iron play, and short-game for the inevitable missed GIR is key here. Hopefully, a large percentage of One and Done golf managers have already used Jordan Spieth and you can select a player who has finished 1st and 2nd in his last two appearances here.
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Purse: $9.5m
Potential Players: Eric Cole, Justin Rose, Harris English
The tournament where K.H. Lee won back-to-back titles in 2021 and 2022, earning him the nickname “TPC Lee”. Jason Day then completed his own double in 2023, with some 13 years in between drinks. One unique aspect of the course is the zoysia grass fairways. This is relatively rare on the PGA Tour, only appearing at TPC Southwind and East Lake. Driver is not that important on this course. Someone like Eric Cole comes to mind, who is actually a surprisingly poor driver. Instead, we see a big uptick in long approach shots. 1/3rd of all approach shots are over 200 yards, with 2/3rd of approach shots are from over 150 yards.
Course: Quail Hollow Club
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Rory McIlroy, Min Woo Lee, Ludvig Aberg
Quail Hollow is a big boy golf course. Sitting at over 7,500 yards for a par 71, it is one of the longest tests on the PGA Tour. Driving distance is essential here, as seen by Wyndham Clark when winning for us at 80/1 in the lead-up to his U.S. Open victory. 75% of approach shots will be from over 150 yards. Putting from 5-15 feet is ranked 15th most difficult on the Tour, with putts from 15+ feet ranking 7th on tour. Hopefully, three-time champion Rory McIlroy has already been burned by a large number of managers and you can deploy him at a track he loves.
Course: Valhalla Golf Club
Purse: $17.5m
Potential Players: Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson
The majors return to Valhalla 10 years after Rory McIlroy triumphed here in 2014. If you didn’t use him the preceding week at the Wells Fargo Championship, you can deploy him here. In fact, that may preferable with invariably even more players having used him. However, this is again another rare opportunity to deploy one of the LIV Golf players. Being a Nicklaus design, parallels might be drawn to Muirfield, where Jon Rahm is a past champion. He would’ve won back-to-back there had it not been for the unfortunate withdrawal after three rounds with COVID when leading by 6.
Course: Colonial Country Club
Purse: $9.1m
Potential Players: Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Russell Henley
If Jordan Spieth hasn’t been used yet or shown continued struggles with the wrist injury, One and Done golf managers might just auto-click his name here. It is perhaps unsurprising then that the course shares links with Harbour Town, as Spieth has won on both courses. Each is a fiddly, positional course where accuracy off the tee between overhanging branches and a sharp short game is required.
Course: Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Purse: $9.4m
Potential Players: Brian Harman, Brendon Todd, Andrew Putnam, Adam Hadwin
The RBC Canadian Open returns to Hamilton Golf & Country Club, which most recently hosted this event in 2019. Outside leader Rory McIlroy, the leaderboard was dotted with accurate drivers. 7 of the top 10 on the leaderboard finished in the top 20 of driving accuracy for the week. Additionally, 8 of the Top 10 that week were in the top 10 for SG: Putting at the tournament. Find the fairway and make your putts looks to be the most reliable pathway to success.
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay
The Memorial kicks-off a big run off three large purses on the tour. In fact, 37% of the total money on offer will be awarded in the next 11 weeks (even more if your contest includes the Tour Championship). Another reminder why you should never give up on your One and Done golf contest right until the end of the year! Accuracy is more important than distance here, as is excellent approach play, and an aptitude for putting on bentgrass.
Course: Pinehurst No. 2
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Brooks Koepka, Cam Smith, Jon Rahm
The penultimate major of the year. We return to a venue where Kaymer trounced the field in 2014, fellow Kiwi Michael Campbell held off Tiger Woods in 2005, and Payne Stewart won in 1999. This course is a demon, typically delivering an incredibly tight affair and very high scoring. In fact, only three golfers have played this course under-par in three renditions. Sounds like the kind of course where the relentless attitude of Koepka could be beneficial, or the hot putter of Cam Smith could keep him in contention.
Course: TPC River Highlands
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Russell Henley, Tom Kim, Brian Harman
A big three weeks concludes at the Travelers, again strategically placed by the PGA Tour in the hope of keeping the armchair golf fans engaged. Driving accuracy rules king at TPC River Highlands, as highlighted by Brian Harman and Zac Blair just behind Keegan Bradley last time out. We had unluckily selected Zac Blair the prior tournament at 1000/1 before he withdrew with injury, only to return here with that runner-up finish. The course requires a sharp wedge game, with a disproportionate number of shots under 150 yards. Other Pete Dye courses are a good guide here, with TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield Country Club both offering accuracy heavy tests.
Course: Detroit Golf Club
Purse: $9.2m
Potential Players: Adam Scott, Taylor Moore, Ryan Fox, Nicolai Hojgaard
Off the back of those three big tournaments, don’t be surprised to see many of the best golfers give this one a miss. Consequently, you could see a lot of the top of the betting board available for selection. Basically, you are likely best to keep an eye on projected use for this week and do the opposite. More than 50% of all approach shots will occur between 50-150 yards. This is key given shots on longer par 3s and the par 5s will naturally require a longer approach shot. I put Nicolai Hojgaard up at 80/1 here in 2023, although I doubt you will see that number this time around.
Course: TPC Deere Run
Purse: $7.8m
Potential Players: Ryan Fox, Chris Kirk, Russell Henley, Lucas Glover
This tournament can prove quite volatile and could be renamed as the “John Deere wedge putter birdie-fest”. The tournament has required a score better than 20-under in 11 of the last 14 editions. The other three were won at -18 or -19 with high winds in at least one round. A huge number of approach shots will fall between 100-150 yards. Driving accuracy is helpful not because the course is overly narrow, but because you simply must give yourself as many birdie looks within 10 feet as possible. That’s easier to achieve from the short stuff.
Course: The Renaissance Club
Purse: $9.0m
Potential Players: Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Joaquin Niemann?
We make our way to the spiritual home of golf and a foray into links golf. Overall, links golf requires a unique set of skills and those with that experience hold an edge. This event is commingled with the DP World Tour, allowing an opportunity to play some golfers who might not have an opportunity to during other tournaments. I do wonder whether we might see Joaquin Niemann here, who managed to play some DP World Tour events not being a former member and receiving a sponsor exemption. Robert MacIntyre is likely a very popular selection and should probably be avoided, following a remarkable tournament last year where Rory McIlroy snatched victory in near impossible circumstances.
Course: Royal Troon
Purse: $16.5m
Potential Players: Joaquin Niemann, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Tommy Fleetwood
The final chance to snag a major in 2024, The Open Championship returns to Royal Troon. This will be it’s 10th time hosting, with the most recent of those being in 2016. Many will see Tyrrell Hatton and Rory McIlroy finishing in 5th placed here that year. As a result, read that in the context that this was an epic major between Henrik Stenson (-20) and Phil Mickelson (-17). Stenson finished 15 strokes ahead of Hatton and McIlroy, with their closer competitor being J.B. Holmes in 3rd (-6). If Niemann is in reasonable form, you should consider playing him here. His low ball-flight with irons has always looked suited for links golf if the winds blow.
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Purse: $8.3m
Potential Players: Tony Finau, Ryan Fox, Adrian Meronk
With players travelling back from The Open Championship, expect many who played the week prior to be resting. If not, jet-lag can always be a factor. Particularly if they have contended the week prior, I would avoid any such player this week. The course is long enough at 7,431 yards and par 71. Rough is fairly non-existent, but water on 15 of the 18 holes keeps golfers honest. You can perhaps rely on Tony Finau being used by other players by this point, arriving at a course where he has never finished worse than 28th in 5 looks with form of 23-3-28-1-7.
Course: Sedgefield Country Club
Purse: $7.9m
Potential Players: Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Russell Henley
A week’s break as the golfers head to the Olympic Games, played at Le Golf National. Most of the One and Done golf contests will miss that event, as there is no prize purse given putting a price on a gold medal is rather difficult.
The PGA Tour returns at the Wyndham Championship, which is always an exciting event as the last chance saloon to make the playoffs. As mentioned in The Players preview, this course and TPC Sawgrass share one of the strongest correlations you will see between two golf courses all season. Those who have not used Tom Kim likely deploy him here (should he play), so monitor usage and divert to golfers like Sungjae Im or Russell Henley. Webb Simpson likely attracts attention given his absurd course history here, at a course he loves so much he named his daughter after a hotel chain.
Course: TPC Southwind
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Patrick Cantlay, Tyrrell Hatton, Collin Morikawa
The first playoff event and hopefully you find yourself having ridden a little luck and good planning to be in contention. TPC Southwind has hosted some form of tournament since 1989. First as the FedEx St Jude Classic, then the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational, before becoming the FedEx St Jude Championship. Make sure you use course history over tournament history to have access to the most data possible.
Again, those rare zoysia grass fairways show up here. Overall, the course is a tricky test with a winning score in the low to mid teens common. Water is heavily involved on 11 holes and the rough is pretty gnarly. Driving distance is not really a factor, but accuracy is an asset as is sharp approach play. 78% of all approach shots occur between 100-200 yards here.
Course: Castle Pines Golf Club
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Aberg, Sungjae Im
The 2nd playoff event sees a reduction to the last 50 players and a return to Castle Pines, last sighted on the PGA Tour for The International tournament from 1986-2006. Unfortunately, that was before the age of big data and strokes gained was not recorded. Other Nicklaus designs like Muirfield could be a useful guide. On paper, the course looks a long test but bear in mind this is played at altitude in Colorado.
Course: East Lake Golf Club
Purse: TBC
Potential Players: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland
Finally, if your One and Done contest includes the Tour Championship some extra strategy is required. Controversially, the Tour Championship is handicapped including starting strokes based on the number of FedEx Cup points that players have earned throughout the year. I understand the appeal in having the person who lifts the trophy also being the one who wins the FedEx Cup. However, the DP World Tour handle this just fine and golf fans are smart enough to be able to handle concurrent leaderboards.
Basically, with the starting strokes you may be best to hold back an elite stud to deploy here. Obviously, the vast majority of players will have used them by this point and you are giving yourself a huge advantage. Scottie Scheffler makes the most sense as barring injury he should be in the top 4 players and, therefore, have one of the lower starting scores. However, Rory McIlroy does have an excellent record at East Lake. Monitor how the season develops and, having checked whether your contest includes this tournament, keep back an elite player who is highly likely to finish towards the top of the FedEx Cup leaderboard entering this event.
And thus ends another PGA Tour season, and a 6,500 word article. I hope you’ve enjoyed it, that you have a very successful One and Done golf year, and a big thank you again for all your support for DeepDiveGolf.
As a golf analyst, one of the questions I am most often asked is what I do differently to others. Fact is, the vast majority of sport bettors will lose money. Bookmakers are not in the business of losing money. Actually, Americans have lost a reported $245billion on sports betting since restrictions loosened in 2018. However, sometimes it is the things you don’t do which are just as important as the actions you do take. I have many years of measured and consistent profit in the betting tips I provide. My hope for you is that, if you do choose to gamble, you do so in a safer and more informed manner. Here are the most common sport betting mistakes which I encounter on a regular basis.
First in the common sport betting mistakes I come across is sport bettors unrealistic expectations. It is great to have goals. It is fantastic to have a dream. Simply put, you are extremely unlikely to get rich quick from gambling. Any website or tipster who advises you that you can gain enormous wealth immediately using their system is lying to you. Yes, you might get lucky and randomly hit one very big parlay. But, in actuality, sports betting is a grind. Any edge that exists is in the margins and is, generally, small.
For example, take my results for the past two years. In the 2022 golf season, I showed a return on investment of +25%. In 2023, we had a return on investment of +33%. That 2023 result would be the equivalent of placing a single bet of -303. Of course this is spread across an entire year, therefore lowering your risk compared to placing one rather large bet.
Sure, those results exceed the performance of the S&P 500. But, that is the result of years of gradual progress. And it places my results in some of the best and most consistent in the golf betting industry.
Therefore, sports gambling should primarily be for fun. You should never, ever, bet more than you can afford to lose. Bankroll management is key. Your maximum bet size should not exceed 1-2% of your total funds you are prepared to invest. Approach it responsibly and with the full knowledge that you could lose everything you put in.
Another common sport betting mistake is known as the gambler’s fallacy. In short, many gamblers believe that prior results mean a future result is near guaranteed to happen. Roulette provides perhaps the easiest analogy. If a black number has fallen 7 times in a row, some gamblers will believe that the next number should surely be red. After all, the roulette wheel will fall on red and black roughly the same percentage of the time right?
The fact is, each spin of the roulette wheel is a completely independent event. The wheel does not remember that the last 7 spins were black. Your odds are still exactly the same. For red or black, that is 48.65% for a single zero wheel (and don’t even get me started on people who choose to play a wheel with two zeroes!) Over a long period of time, it will trend towards that number. But most gamblers seem to think in a very short timeframe.
Of course, in sport betting, recent form is still a very important factor to consider. However, you should focus on self-awareness and avoid falling into the trap of gambler’s fallacy. No golfer is ever “due” to win. Also, just because a golfer won last week doesn’t mean they are less likely to win the following week because they got their “usual” one win for the year. Each tournament is a new event, on a different golf course, in variable conditions, and with a new field. Your bets should be based in evidence and research. Be precise and measured in your approach.
Perhaps the most common error I find sport bettors making is confusing probability and value. First, we need to understand what expected value is. This uses elements of game theory and implied probability.
Every time you place a bet, that bet has an expected value. Going back to the roulette example, on a single zero wheel the expected value is -2.7%. That is to say that, over time, you can expect to lose 2.7% of your gambled amount. This is calculated as the 37 possible numbers on the wheel, where 19 results being losing bets and the other 18 being where you double your amount bet.
The only way to consistently win at sport betting is to place bets with a positive expected value. My role is to provide you with selections where the odds on offer are not a fair reflection of the golfer’s actual chances. For example, if Rory McIlroy is given odds of +1900 to win a golf tournament, the bookmaker is saying he has a 5% chance to win that tournament. However, if our research and projections show that he actually has a 7% chance to win the tournament then an opportunity exists. That +2% difference between the implied odds and the projected probability is the small margins I allude to.
I often find people confuse probability and value. Some will make statements claiming a certain golfer will never win. Others will say that one golfer is much more likely to win than another. Those statements can both be true. However, the odds often reflect this reality. The better golfer is more than likely lower odds as a result. Instead, you are better to simply remain focused whether each set of odds truly reflect the probability of that event occurring.
It amazes me how many sports bettors do not track their bets. And that likely means that you actually already know you are losing money sport betting.
Unfortunately, this is also all too common from multiple touts. I surmise that, more often than not, the reason they don’t is because they are afraid to look. Find tipsters that you respect and enjoy reading, but also look for those that transparently publish their profit and loss for better or worse.
Can you imagine a business that never calculated what it was spending and what it revenue was? Undoubtedly, the future of that business would be untenable. You should take the same approach with your sport betting. Be transparent and honest with yourself. If you are ok losing money sport betting and are doing so responsibly whilst gaining enjoyment, then that is fine. That is something for you to decide. If you are determined to try make a little money sport betting, then you should know where you are to determine where you are trying to go.
Sportsbooks will produce a profit and loss statement for you. I prefer a more manual approach, as there is useful data to be gained from knowing specifically what type of bets win and learning from mistakes I’ve made. Either way, you should know what you are spending and where.
Let’s face it. Sportsbooks likely know more than you do. After all, it is their job and sole reason for existence. They have teams of highly skilled experts covering every sport, limiting their exposure, and complicated algorithms to project likely outcomes. They are likely investing more time into research and models than you are. If not for time, their models are likely better than yours.
Have you accurately assessed every golfer in the field, the type of golf course they are playing, what the weather conditions will be, and any and all other factors potentially impacting on the event? Hand on heart, I would struggle to ever say I’ve taken every single possible factor into account. Some factors are also simply unknown. Take when Erik Van Rooyen won for us in 2023 at 80/1. I had no idea when I recommended the bet that this factor was in play:
Scottie Scheffler doesn’t care about that funny feeling in your stomach that tells you he is going to play well this week. Too often, I see people celebrating bets they won which they placed on a “hunch”. You should avoid like the plague any touts who use language like “I’ve got a feeling” too often. Sports betting isn’t based on feelings. In fact, it should be as emotionless as possible.
Don’t bet on players because you like them and think you are a successful sport bettor. Conversely, don’t fade players simply because you dislike them. It should be a statistical and analytical approach. You are looking for opportunities where the chance of the golfer winning is greater than their odds suggest.
Much akin to tracking your bets, you should also be methodical in your approach to sport betting. One big error I see punters make is placing too many bets. Just because a tournament is on, doesn’t mean that you have to bet it. In certain events, I won’t produce any tips. Commonly, this is because the field is too small and there exists no statistical edge to any bet as the hold the books have is simply too strong. In other circumstances, we might have poor or incomplete date for many golfers in a weaker field as they do not play enough higher profile tournaments.
Following a system prevents such errors as suddenly betting significantly more after a big win. Infinitely worse is those who are chasing losses. When you’ve lost more money than you are comfortable, you need to appreciate that the money is gone. Throwing more money on the fire is rarely going to put it out. Instead, take the time to reflect on your gambling and whether it is at a level that is actually sustainable and safe for you.
By being consistent and methodical in your approach, you can mitigate this risk. I follow a system with clear unit sizing based on the perceived edge we have between the implied odds and projected probability. I typically select between 5-8 golfers each week where the highest expected value exists. This does not vary week to week. As you increase your bankroll, you can begin to slowly increase your stake as long as you remain below your total weekly limit of % of your bankroll.
It should go without saying, but you need to shop your odds. I appreciate this can be frustrating, as it often results in needing multiple accounts with different bookmakers to obtain the best odds.
However, as already noted, we so often operate under small margins in sport betting. The difference between a golfer being priced +2000 and +2500 looks small on paper. What that really means is you have given up a free 1% of implied probability. The lower the odds, the smaller deviation from the best odds is required to provide a rather substantial difference.
This cuts directly into your margin and potential profit. There are many websites out there which will give you an overview of what odds each bookmaker is offering for an event. Use them.
With all my selections, I provide detailed information of the exact odds used and where they were obtained at time of publication. This makes it easy for you and gives you the peace of mind that you’re backing a selection with a positive expected value.
If you can find better odds than I have published at another reputable bookmaker, then even better! But do be careful with golf betting and place terms for each-way bets, as these can affect the implied probability even though the headline number may be the same.
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At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
