The RSM Classic is ready to tee off and The Win Daily Sports golf squad of Joel (@DraftMasterFlex), Sia (@SiaNejad) and Spencer (@TeeOffSports) are here with their preview to talk all things Fantasy Golf.
Golf snobs will be delighted for the return to Royal Liverpool Golf Club, colloquially known as Hoylake, for the 151st Open Championship. Although last week’s Genesis Scottish Open offers up similar-ish conditions, The Renaissance Club can really only be described at links golf lite. For many, performance on links track remains the true test of golf. It has perennially been an examination of all aspects of a golfers game. Further, one that has managed to largely avoid the increasing advantage of the long drivers that now dominate the leaderboards across the globe. This course is iconic and provides a rugged yet beautiful test for our Open Championship picks.
We were oh so close to yet another winner at the Scottish Open. Rory McIlroy won in near impossible circumstances and continues to impress, as he arrives at a course he won at in 2014. We had just two selections last week with a unit stake over 1. They were Scottie Scheffler, who finished 3rd in typical fashion, and Tyrrell Hatton. Hatton particularly had a 2 shot lead into the last 9 holes, before throwing that away over 6 holes to wind up 6th. That was also in rather typical fashion for what has been a frustrating year for the Brit. We also had young Scot Ewen Ferguson continuing to impress. He was put up at a massive 250/1 and finished up in 12th, just two shots outside the place money but sufficient to cash both Top 20 and Top 40 bets he had recommended.
Royal Liverpool Golf Club presents as a stern test for the Open picks. The first, and perhaps more notable feature, are the 6 internal out of bounds areas for the golfers to avoid. For the uninitiated, finding OB off the tee is not just a penalty shot but also loss of distance. It is one of the harshest penalties a golfer can face in regular circumstances. The scary thing with Hoylake is that these areas are often mere yards from the fairway. It does not take much here for things to go very, very wrong. Not something we want for our Open Championship picks!
Further adding to this are strategically placed fairway bunkers. Often occurring right in the key landing distances, these bunkers are deep with extreme faces. They should be viewed as you would a water hazard. The same bunkers are littered around the greens, with many areas shaved and slope to feed your golf ball right to the bottom of the pit.
And yet, we are not done with the hazards here. Thick gorse bushes are found around the course and, again, just mere yards off the relatively narrow fairways. Gorse presents extremely thick bushes with sturdy branches. If finding your ball in them is near impossible, hitting a shot from them certainly is.
What this means is you can’t simply rip driver here whenever you like. You will need to be extremely strategic and display exquisite course management to be successful. If you can be both long and consistently straight off the tee, then that is obviously best. It is hard to see a winner outside the really great drivers of the golf ball.
Otherwise, driving accuracy would be the preference for our Open Championship picks. Preference is given to long drivers comfortable using iron off the tee when strategically appropriate. Many holes require the player to draw the golf ball so this should also be noted. As always, approach will be a factor. Lesser weighting is given to around the green and putting than those two factors.
Short game is obviously imperative in links golf, so these aren’t discounted entirely. This is given many around the green shots are subject to a little luck where the ball lands in the bunker, lessening some of the around the green skill. With putting, the slower than normal greens provide a moderately easier test.
Hoylake provides a very different test off the tee than last year’s host at the Old Course at St Andrews. That course features huge 100 yard wide fairways and nothing to penal in terms of hazards when driving. A much better comparison can be found at the 2019 Open Championship host Portrush. Visually they are much a like, but they also both have a draw preference to their layout.
A somewhat obscure comparison can be made between the Qatar Masters host, Doha Golf Club. That tournament has thrown out a number of Open Championship winners or likely contenders. That includes Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Henrik Stenson, and Paul Lawrie. The course is a Kyle Phillips design, the same designer of Kingsbarns. That course features in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation, another solid form guide to The Open Championship picks.
For the PGA Tour players, the difficulty comes that they really don’t have any links courses in the USA. Some parallels can be extracted through correlation. First, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National have provided similar names to the prior Open Championship leaderboards hosted here in 2006 and 2014. They ask similar questions in different ways. The Players requires driving accuracy off the tee with heavy penalty if too wayward. Augusta National requires a strong driver, with excellent approach and around the green play.
Finally, The Honda Classic host PGA National is a great look. Padraig Harrington is a two time champion both at The Open Championship and there. McIlroy, Els, Scott, and Rickie Fowler also dot both the leaderboards there and are either Open Championship winners or runner ups. Any PGA Tour players who have played somewhat well in Scottish Open is a nice bonus for The Open Championship picks.
Foremost when considering the weather, you should note the unique format at The Open Championship. It is tradition that all players start on the 1st tee. As such, tee times cover a huge range from the early first sunlight hours of 6:35am through to those finishing in twilight at 4:16pm.
This presents a unique question for weather. Typically, coastal areas experience increased wind levels from midday through to late afternoon. This though does tend to fade as it enters evening. The main cause for this is the colder air over the seas moves towards the warmer air over land as it heats up, rises, and creates a low pressure area for the winds to advance.
This rings true across both Thursday and Friday. Of the first two days, Friday looks to be the windier of the two. Rain also looks to be a factor and consistent across the tournament.
Preference is given to those with a very early tee time Friday, which should present the best conditions of that day. Simply though, the key is to not find a golfer stuck in the middle ground for our Open Championship picks. I want golfers who get to take advantage of at least one decent true morning start. Those very late in the day may experience a small benefit too. The risk is ending up stuck with a late morning tee time, when winds are already picking up, and then ending up in the afternoon the next day. This should be avoided wherever possible.
Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds) with 25% Bet Boost
Shane Lowry
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
Max Homa
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
Adam Scott
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)
Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)
Ryan Fox
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +335 (Unibet)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1689788095069-adc9-920?id=63fbd158-d2f7-427a-8852-862667446fda”]
Note that, as per the Scottish Open, I like to include some long-shot bombs. This comes due to the potential volatility inherent in links golf, presenting opportunities further down the board at inflated prices. This is combined along with the specialist nature that players can develop specific to links courses. You’ll see that the win stake on these is heavily reduced, with the main focus on obtaining exposure in Top 20 and Top 40 markets.
Matthew Jordan
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +175
Kurt Kitayama
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)
Alex Noren – Your 151st Open Championship Best Long-Shot Bomb
0.25pt E/W +25000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
3.5pt Top 40 +230 (TAB)
Ewen Ferguson
0.25pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (Bet365)
Victor Perez
0.25pt E/W +35000 (Unibet with 7 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +750 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (TAB)
Matt Wallace
0.25pt E/W +40000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +900 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +320 (TAB)
Matthew Southgate
0.25pt E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (William Hill)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +300 (Bet365)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1689788884589-adc9-136?id=c7dca0c6-4471-4b0b-abe5-1615eb7f10a4″]
Cases can be made for all of Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Cam Smith, and Koepka. The fact is that, if anything, they are likely priced very correctly in the market and often below fair odds. This is a volatile tournament and fading the favourites is something we almost just have to do. There is little in the way of value there.
Although somewhat disappointed to miss the opening 30/1 which we liked, I’m still happy to side with Cantlay at the top of the board. The 22/1 on offer can be inflated by 25% with Bet365, which I recommend doing if you have access to that bookmaker.
Look, I know what you’re thinking. Cantlay sucks in majors. I get it. The question comes, do we simply think Cantlay will never win a major? I’m not convinced that will be the case when his career is all said and done. What should also be noted is he is now on a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 14th or better in majors. A good start is imperative to his chances of success, something he can hopefully obtain with a morning tee time Thursday.
Cantlay is one of the strongest drivers in the game. Over the past 6 months, he is the 12th in this field for driving accuracy despite being long off the tee. That jumps to 7th if looking at the last 3 months. Further, he is leader for par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour, a stat he also led in 2022. He has already shown an aptitude for links golf with finishes of 8th and 12th in the Open previously. I expect him to be in the mix come Sunday. Here’s hoping he can then shut the door and silence the critics.
Lowry is once again quietly putting together an impressive season. He is one of a small smattering of golfers who have finished in the Top 20 in every major for 2023. That includes 16th and 3rd at The Masters, which should be somewhat correlated to here.
Beyond the obvious correlations from being The Open winner at Portrush, one of the better past courses for guidance here, he has a great record at other comp courses. This includes finishes of 2nd and 5th at the Honda Classic for the past two years and 3 finishes of 16th or better at The Players.
Last week’s Scottish Open was eye catching given a large spike in his short game performance. Typically the weakest element of his game, he wound up 12th despite not possessing his best approach week. A return to normality with his ball striking numbers will see him go close here if he putts even half as well as he did in Scotland.
Look, I know what you’re thinking. Homa sucks in majors. I get it. Much like Cantlay though, I suspect we will see Homa as a major champion at some point in his career and The Open Championship seems to fit well.
Homa has impressed recently at The Players, with finishes of 6th an 13th at his last two appearances. That course rewards both long and straight drivers of the ball, which Homa possesses in spades. Homa’s victories have often come in tough conditions, particularly when it is raining. His wins at the Fortinet Championship and Wells Fargo Championship come to mind. Both were wet tournaments, but also on courses favouring accuracy off the tee. All of his 8 victories bar one have come at scores from -8 to -16. With likely winning score here likely to be in the -12 to -15 range, that fits right in his pocket.
As the 8th best golfer in the world, we are getting an inflated price at 50/1 here. An avid fan of golf history, he is well aware of the special place The Open holds in the world of golf. He would make for a worthy champion.
We were on Adam Scott last week, who missed the cut right on the number. That may not end up a bad thing, given the volatile winds over the weekend and very early starts that ensued. If not in contention, he was likely best to pack up and head down to Hoylake a little in advance.
He arrives at a course where he finished 8th and 5th in the prior to renditions hosted at Royal Liverpool. Further building to his links (pun unintended) are his two wins at the Qatar Masters and a win at the Honda Classic. Alongside those impeccable credentials are a multitude of top 20s at The Players and a green jacket. Scott could well be the veteran who pops up here for a major win towards the end of a stellar career.
Conners quietly went about building a decent links warm-up last week with a 19th placed finished at the Scottish Open. We also saw a large increase in driving accuracy but, most notably for Conners, a good week putting.
Conners is long and straight off the tee, rankings 11th in SG:OTT over the last 3, 6, and 12 months and 8th if looking over 2 years. 15th and 28th at the past two Opens suggest he isn’t completely foreign to links golf. He also boasts a great record at Augusta National with a run of 6th, 8th, and 10th at The Masters between 2020-2022. 12th at the PGA Championship is also not the worst guide, with a course that played very well but featured incredibly penal rough if straying a couple yards off the fairway. Should he find a half decent putter, he is a shout to surprise a few here.
Patriotism aside, Ryan Fox could well be a sneaky look to sneak another claret jug for New Zealand here. Fox has had a sterling few years as his game continues to grow. He continued that with a 12th place finish last week at the Scottish Open, where he has a previous 4th in 2017.
Not adverse to windy conditions, Foxy has already displayed some of his best on links courses. We saw that in his most notable victory, winning the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links in sometimes torrid conditions. He also surprised for a 16th at the 2019 Open at Portrush. That came well before the levels we see him playing at now and broke a run of 7 consecutive missed cuts. He also follows those performances at other courses where he is equally happy using a 2 iron off the tree. The Soudal Open comes to mind, where he finished 2nd on a very narrow test hindered when his 2 iron shaft actually cracked on the final day.
He also owns the course record at his home course, Te Arai Links, which he broke in February this year. He shot a 60 there: https://www.europeantour.com/dpworld-tour/news/articles/detail/ryan-fox-breaks-course-record-at-te-arai-links-on-trip-back-home/
If you want to look at similarities, simply go and look at some of the photos of that beautiful piece of land.
I asked in my recent interview with Ryan Fox about what it is about links golf suits his game so well. He pointed to the fact he prefers tests where he feels he doesn’t have to make birdie every hole. That more strategic, methodical approach gives me faith he will put the driver away when needed. When he gets to the par 5s and par 4s, he can let the big dog eat and attack some of those longer holes. Go well Foxy.
Finally, thank you reading our 151st The Open Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!
Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching!
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What a year we are having! Daniel Hillier secured yet another victory from our selections over on the DP World Tour. The 80/1 long-shot secured the British Masters with a stunning final 9 holes, including going eagle-birdie-eagle before a clutch par putt on the 18th. Let’s look for another winner with our John Deere Classic picks.
Hillier made an obvious selection. He had finished 3rd and 5th in two of his three most recent appearances. Realistically, he was in a position to win one if not both of those tournaments. But, the secret sauce actually came from a 2021 Challenge Tour event. The 2021 British Challenge was hosted on the same course at The Belfry. Obviously, it was an easier setup than the DP World Tour tournaments played at the same venue. Hillier finished 14th that week. However, Hillier was the best player in the field over the last three rounds. Likely this was missed by many, but not when we are @DeepDiveGolf!
TPC Deere Run plays host to this event, as it has since 2000. This short 7,289 yard par-71 completes what should really be coined the wedge, putting contest, birdie-fest swing. A low winning score of between -20 to -25 is likely this week.
The course offers up very little defense. A quick peruse through past leaderboards makes clear driving accuracy is at a premium here for our John Deere Classic picks. The 2017 edition, battled between DeChambeau and Rodgers, provides the sole exception. Rough is reasonably thick at 4 inches, although fairways are not that narrow. Players simply need to be providing themselves a multitude of birdie looks here from within 15 feet. That is best achieved through finding the short grass off the tee. It is an essential element to your John Deere Classic picks.
There will be a disproportionate number of shots between 50-100 yards and, particularly, 100-150 yards. This been the same recipe as seen recently at the RBC Canadian Open, Travelers Championship, and Rocket Mortgage Classic. Over 60% of shots are from 100-200 yards. This is further emphasized given the majority of approach shots over 200 yards will occur on the par 5s and two of the par 3s being over 200 yards.
I will be putting less weighting on putting here than other models. The greens are relatively simple and true, being bentgrass. There is little in the way of undulations or complicated reading here. I’d much rather narrow the focus on fairway finders who will be giving themselves plenty of birdie looks due to elite wedge play.
Key metrics: Driving accuracy, Approach 100-150 yards, Approach 50-100 yards.
Chiefly, a number of recent courses are used as guidance for your John Deere Classic picks. Detroit Golf Club, TPC River Highlands, and Oakdale Golf & Country Club all emphasize accuracy and a disproportionate number of wedge shots. They also provide bentgrass within their green complexes. These courses balance a nice combination of recent form as well as being correlated to what we expect this week.
Other correlations for John Deere Classic picks are at Waialae Golf Club, Sedgefield Country Club, and the American Express tournament. All emphasize driving accuracy and a high number of wedge shots. Therefore, as Jon Rahm infamously described one of the aforementioned, they become a bit of a putting contest.
There appear to be few pitfalls in the weather this week. Winds look relatively consistent across both Thursday and Friday and any potential weather edge does appear minimal.
There is a small chance of some raining on Wednesday evening. Certainly, this may lead to a softening of conditions for those out Thursday morning. However, the advantage should be minimal. Therefore, this does not factor into our John Deere Classic picks. However, I would provide a small uptick for any lower priced options you are considering in DFS who are going out early in round 1.
Russell Henley – Your John Deere Classic Picks favourite
3pts E/W +1600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Chris Kirk
2.5pts E/W +3000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Stephan Jaeger
2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Alex Smalley
2pts E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Brendon Todd
1pt E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (TAB)
David Lipsky
1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And 2pts
Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
Zac Blair
0.5pts +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 (Bet365)
And
2pts Top 40 +240 (TAB)
Satoshi Kodaira – Your John Deere Classic Picks best value
0.5pts +35000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1200 (Unibet)
And
2pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365)
Finally, thank you reading our 2023 John Deere Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!
Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!
PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.
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It looked for the first two days of The Travelers Championship as we were well on track for the three-peat. Following winners of Nick Taylor 66/1 and Wyndham Clark 80/1, Denny McCarthy led across the first two rounds. Unfortunately, a rare cold putter in the 3rd round saw him fall out of contention. He still collected a full place payout for us along with the Top 20 money to keep the ball rolling. It looks like another birdie fest is instore for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.
Nestled in the heart of Detroit lies the magnificent Detroit Golf Club, a captivating haven for golfers seeking a true test of their skills. With its meticulously manicured fairways, undulating greens, and strategic bunkering, this Donald Ross masterpiece offers an ideal setting for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.
Many people will simply look at the list of winners and believe this is a bombers paradise. Seeing names such as Tony Finau, Cam Davis, and Bryson DeChambeau battling Matthew Wolff could lead some to believe driving distance is essential here. That can be a fallacy many fall into. I prefer taking a much more nuanced approach.
We have also seen many shorter but accurate hitters also find success here. Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt, and J.J. Spaun top the list of the best course history here for those with more than 12 rounds played despite being shorter hitters.
What these players do share in common is they are consistently gaining strokes on approach from 50-150 yards. More than 50% of shots will occur from this range. This is significant, especially when you account for Par 3s and Par 5s that are always naturally going to demand longer irons no matter which course you play.
Sedgefield Country Club is another Donald Ross design featuring tree lined fairways and a reputation as a birdie fest. There are correlating links between the The American Express, not just through Rahm’s infamous putting contest remark but the disproportionate number of wedge shots required there.
Recent results at The Travelers Championship and this year’s Canadian Open host Oakdale Golf and Country Club are noted. These tournaments both feature a large number of wedge shots, tree lined fairways, and greens featuring a bentgrass/poa annua mix. They provide a nice balance between correlated metrics and recent form arriving here for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.
There does appear to be a minor weather edge developing for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks. Golfers fortunate enough to tee off on Thursday morning and continue their second round on Friday afternoon might benefit from calmer conditions, as the forecast suggests a light breeze and moderate temperatures during these periods. Potential thunderstorms Friday afternoon could delay play. Therefore, this would see those golfers get to finish their rounds under calm conditions Saturday morning. This favorable weather window could potentially yield lower scores and provide an advantage for those players.
In contrast, competitors teeing off on Thursday afternoon and continuing their second round on Friday morning might encounter slightly more challenging conditions. The forecast indicates an increase in wind speeds and possible showers during these timeframes.
We predict the scoring advantage to fall in the range of 0.50-0.75 strokes on average. This is likely insufficient to take me off premium players like Hideki Matsuyama. However, it is worthy on noting for lower tier options that the preference should be for them to come from the perceived better weather draw.
Hideki Matsuyama – Your Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Chris Kirk
2pt E/W +5000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Stephan Jaeger
2pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Nicolai Hojgaard
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (William Hill/TAB)
Mark Hubbard
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (William Hill/TAB)
Joseph Bramlett – Your Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Best Value
1.5pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +400 (Bet365)
David Lipsky
0.5pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +230 (Bet365)
Finally, thank you reading our 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!
Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!
PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.
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Back-to-back winners! What a US Open we had, most notably selecting Wyndham Clark available in some markets as long as 80/1. This marked our second win in as many weeks, having also tipped Nick Taylor at 66/1 in the RBC Canadian Open. Likewise beyond Clark, we had additional winners from the week. We selected both Xander and Rickie in the First-Round leader market at 35/1 and 66/1 respectively. Additionally, Fowler secured us a full place payout and Xander a reduced place payout in 10th. Patrick Rodgers also locked in a Top 40 win for us, in an outstanding week of tipping! This now takes our PGA Tour record in 2023 to a whopping +718 units and a return on investment of 80%. However, there is no rest for the wicked as we go for a threepeat with our Travelers Championship Picks!
TPC River Highlands plays host this week. The course has hosted this tournament in Cromwell, Connecticut since 1984. As such, we have a wealth of data to go on here and should be able to really narrow our player pool as a result.
Firstly, this provides quite a different test to what we have seen recently. TPC River Highlands is a narrow course with heavy rough and tree-lined fairways. It is one of the most correlated courses between driving accuracy and predicting future success.
Additionally, we will see a disproportionate number of shots under 150 yards this week. At just 6,852 yard par 70, this makes logical sense. Greens are again bentgrass overseeded with poa annua, so recent putting performance should be a fair indicator of how players will handle themselves on these surfaces.
Obviously, the recipe to success here has been relatively simple. Find the fairway, hit a good wedge shot, and make the putt. Scoring typically sits in the -15 to -20 range for the winner. We expect little different this week.
Unsurprisingly, other courses with heavy weighting to driving accuracy and tree lined fairways display a good correlation to TPC River Highlands. We can also look to other Pete Dye designs for guidance, as these do all tend to play quite similar.
For our Travelers Championship picks, courses like Sedgefield and TPC Sawgrass provide obvious similarities. Certainly TPC Potomac provides very similar metrics, as does Austin Country Club. Obviously, the latter being a little more difficult being the host of the WGC Matchplay Championship.
Finally, the recent RBC Canadian Open course Oakdale Golf and Country Club looks very similar. That course featured thick rough, lots of wedge shots, and bentgrass putting surfaces. Obviously, this ticks the box nicely on both a course comp and, additionally, some signs of recent form.
There does appear to be a decent weather edge developing for our Travelers Championship Picks. Currently, Thursday will have light rain throughout the day. Winds should be steady between 6-9 mph all day. Gusts will increase from 16-18mph in the morning to 20-22 mph in the afternoon.
Friday looks to be where any edge may develop. Rain looks likely overnight and Friday AM winds look very calm. This should see Friday AM provide some of the best scoring conditions. Certainly, winds are forecast to increase as they day goes on. Winds should peak around midday, with prevailing winds at 12-14mph and gusts up to 23-27mph.
We predict the weather edge will finish up between 0.5-0.75 strokes on average. Obviously, this is not insignificant. However, it should be noted there is a small chance of fog and thunderstorms developing Friday AM.
Certainly for purposes of DFS, I would suggest a construction of 30% Thursday PM/Friday AM with 10% the contrarian Thursday AM/Friday PM and the remaining 60% of your lineups being mixed.
Tom Kim
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Russell Henley – Your Travelers Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Denny McCarthy
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +300 (Bet365)
Aaron Rai
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (Bet365)
Andrew Putnam
0.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +475 (Bet365)
Mark Hubbard – Your Travelers Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +200 (Bet365)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
0.5pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1687359644619-adc9-864?id=7e6975f0-ca03-407d-9cde-6f95aacc3023″]
Finally, thank you reading our 2023 Travelers Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!
Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!
PROMO: To celebrate our BIG win at the US Open and RBC Canadian Open, we are giving away a FREE one month trial for WinDaily Gold Membership! This is a LIMITED offer, so get in quick!
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What a week at the RBC Canadian Open! Nick Taylor was included in our selections at 66/1, causing EPIC celebrations within the WinDaily Sports Discord akin to the 18th green celebrations on course. The dramatic victory and breaking of 60+ years of hoodoo managed to overshadow the PIF news and the PGA/LIV Golf merger momentarily. There is no rest though, as it is another big week with our US Open picks!
Unlike the drought of Canadian citizens winning their national open, the 66/1 win was simply a continuation of another fantastic year for our selections. We rarely give out match-up plays. However, we saw an edge in Round 4 and we went 6/6 for our selections. This follows the same at the PGA Championship, when we last gave out some Round 4 match-ups and duly went 4/4. We have now shown a return on investment in 2023 of +69% and are up +562.57 units. Profit is already guaranteed in 2023 for those who have followed!
Los Angeles Country Club plays host to the 123rd US Open. This is the first time LA have hosted a US Open since 1940 and the inaugural US Open at this course. In fact, there have been no professional events held at this exclusive club. There have been amateur events, namely a Pac-12 Championship and Walker Cup, but this course will play so different to those events I think any perceived information from those tournaments can be largely discarded. Read on to find what we believe are the key metrics to target this week.
The first note is this course, on paper, plays very long. A 7,421 yard would not be uncommon for a par 72. We instead find a par 70, with 5 par 3s and just 3 par 5s. However, I do think the distance needs to come with a few caveats.
Chiefly, the conditions are extremely firm and fast. This will enhance rollout, especially for those with a lower ball-flight. Where I do see driving distance being an asset is the large number of approach shots over 200+ yards. Naturally, those with increased driving distance tend to have higher clubhead speed and therefore can use a higher loft on a long approach shot. Additionally, with some pretty mean and thick rough this week. A semblance of strength will be beneficial for your US Open picks digging the ball out after missed fairways and greens.
Much has been made of how wide these fairways are. Again, I think this requires a little more of a deep dive. Fairways are heavily sloped in many instances. In addition to the firm and fast conditions, they will play a lot narrower than on first sight.
With multiple long par 3s and some big par 4/5s, long iron approach will be imperative to success. Again, do note that of the long par 3s some significant elevation changes do occur. The 280 yard 7th hole has an exposed front and will allow players to roll the ball up to the green. The 290+ yard 11th par 3 is also severely downhill.
Finally, these greens will be hard to hold. The course is as close to “links” like in nature that you may ever find at the US Open. The ability to rebound from bogeys and save par will be essential for our US Open picks.
Overall, it looks that this will provide a stern all round examination of a golfer’s game. That starts from SG: OTT. Certainly, I do expect a situation where driving distance take precedence. But, ideally, this also comes with a modicum of accuracy. I believe an average driving distance of at least 295 yards is essential.
I have leaned heavily on long approach for the US Open picks this week. We may even see players resorting to irons and fairways woods to try hold these fairways in certain spots. This will further emphasize the need for elite long iron approach.
Around the green receives the weakest ranking of all the mainstream SG metrics. There will be some luck involved, with the bermudagrass rough around the greens so thick. Also, the long grass takes some of the skill out of such chips. However, I do believe bunker play could be a factor and there are some runoff areas which will produce tight lies.
Finally, I do weight putting a little higher than usual for our US Open picks. Particularly, this is true for bentgrass putting. Inevitably, every player will need to make their share of putts. Birdie opportunities will need to be taken; pars will need to be saved.
From what we have been able to discern from the information available, this course does look to be quite a unique test for our US Open picks.
Elements to Augusta National are observed. There is some more width of the tee than we would usually see at a US Open venue, as well as bentgrass greens. Naturally, with the sloped fairways I can see parallels and that rings true for the Plantation Course at Kapalua as well. Plantation also requires a disproportionate number of shots over 200+ yards and under 100 yards. I like that combination, as I believe on top of the long approach shots some closer iron shots may be required if finding trouble off-the-tee.
Other US Open venues of Shinnecock, Chambers Bay, and Erin Hills. Neighbouring Riviera Country Club is also a George Thomas design and holds some parallels.
Finally, I think Scottish Open host the Renaissance Club may be a sneaky parallel. The winning score here has been -7 and -11 previously depending on setup and wind. Although in a links style, it is not a true links course. Exposed and rugged, with undulating fairways and firm conditions, the course appears to strike some similarities to LACC.
The weather still looks to be developing this week and I will provide a final update Wednesday evening in the WinDaily Sports Discord.
Overall, conditions promise to present low humidity and warm temperatures. The course should take little time to crisp up and play very firm and fast in the afternoons particularly.
Both Thursday and Friday currently look to hold a similar outlook with very calm conditions in the morning and winds picking up in the afternoon. The morning should also prevent mildly softer conditions, before the greens firm up in the combination of sun, low humidity, and breeze. As it stands, there looks to be slightly higher and more persistent winds Friday afternoon compared to Thursday.
This pattern looks to continue into the weekend, with winds gusting up to 20-25mph in the afternoons.
Given the above course analysis and predicted weather, I’m projecting a typical US Open winning score of -6 to -9 for our US Open Picks.
We have 6 headline selections this week. I’ve also included 5 longshot bombs to consider. However, you’ll notice a heavily reduced win stake. The win stake is mainly to take advantage of the generous place terms, and emphasis is on the Top 20/40 options. Selections are weighted accordingly in the below suggested staking.
Patrick Cantlay
4pts E/W +1400 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Xander Schauffele – Your US Open Picks Favourite Headliner
2.5pts E/W +1800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Tony Finau
2.5pts E/W +2800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Justin Rose
2pts E/W +3500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Rickie Fowler – Your US Open Picks Best Value Headliner
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Wyndham Clark
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1686674490596-adc9-226?id=049229b1-526f-4653-9b80-e1dbbbe058b2″]
Ryan Fox – Your US Open Picks Favourite Longshot Bomb
1pt E/W +12500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +550 (TAB)
Kurt Kitayama
0.25pts E/W +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +250 (TAB)
Patrick Rodgers
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +170 (Bet365)
Adam Schenk – Your US Open Picks Best Value Longshot Bomb
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)
Sepp Straka
0.25pts E/W +25000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)
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Thank you reading our 2023 US Open picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!
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With a specific type of golfer likely to be successful at Colonial Country Club, I’m excited to get into this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge Picks!
As the sun sets on another major, it is worth reflecting on a tricky PGA Championship at Oak Hill. Oak Hill provided a sterner test than even initial predictions envisioned. However, our winning score prediction was spot on albeit that there was a margin between the top 3 and the rest of the leaderboard. The difficulty of the course proved to be not just for golfers but, also, golf punters. This seems somewhat natural in an environment where missing by just one yard off the fairway can lead to a near unplayable lie. We finally saw some correction come Sunday, with my 5 match-up selections all getting the win. Also cashing are a top 5 finish on Kurt Kitayama at big odds and Alex Smalley for a Top 40. However, Jaeger broke our hearts sitting 10th Saturday before a dreadful final round.
Colonial Country Club plays host this week, as at has since this event was first held in 1946. This is an historic and prestigious event with legends such as Ben Hogan (on 5 occasions), Lee Trevino, Ben Crenshaw, Tom Watson, Jack Nicklaus, and Arnold Palmer all having won here. It is no surprise then to see a strong field for a non-elevated event. The PGA Tour have actually done a commendable job with scheduling post-Majors. RBC Heritage after the Masters was an elevated event this year, this event carries sufficient history to draw stars, and the elevated Travelers Championship will be played the week after the US Open. Although I would not consider the 3M Open in the same vein, it is understandable allowing travel back from the UK after The Open Championship.
What type of golfer suits Colonial Country Club? This course provides for a narrow, tree-lined test where driving accuracy is more important than power when finalising your Charles Schwab Challenge picks. Primarily, the positional nature of the golf course is a result of the trees sitting right up to the fairway edge. This requires an accurate tee shot to ensure the best angle into the green without the effect of foliage or hanging branches compromising access.
Additionally, with the relatively shorter length of the course you will see a disproportionate number of approach shots between 100-200 yards. Certainly, targeting approach buckets has its flaws. However, when the range is relatively large and the sheer number of shots is such as we see here it is worthy of considering targeting this range for your Charles Schwab Challenge picks.
Finally, short-game and chipping will be important this week. We see a large uptick in SG: ATG as a predictive factor at Colonial Country Club. This is a combination of the positional nature compromising approach shots. Additionally, the greens play firm and are mid-size targets at an average 5,000 sq ft with plenty of bunkering.
Prior form at Colonial Country Club is helpful for our Charles Schwab Challenge picks. However, it is not one of the “stickiest” in terms of course history that we see on the PGA Tour. There are several courses that can be used as a predictor to Colonial Country Club.
Harbour Town and the RBC Heritage stands out as another positional course where accuracy off the tee is imperative. It is the primary indicator for the Charles Schwab Challenge picks. Overhanging trees are also a factor at this course and the approach ranges are similar to what we will see this week.
Waialae Country Club, host of the Sony Open, is a factor here for similar reasons. Sea Island Resort, where the RSM Classic is held, also ticks these boxes. TPC Southwind and El Cameleon are both courses that demand accuracy off the tee. Finally, consideration to TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield Country Club should be factors for your Charles Schwab Challenge picks.
Wind is often a factor in Texas. However, we look to be set for a calm week guiding our Charles Schwab Challenge picks.
Both Thursday and Friday look set for low winds in single digits, with gusts reaching a moderate 10-15mph. Winds are also less impactful here with many fairways guarded by trees lessening any effect. Certainly, in both rounds 1 and 2 it looks like the morning groups will provide the best conditions. Therefore, it is unlikely to result in any actionable weather advantage for our Charles Schwab Challenge picks.
Do note that weather was quite a factor in last year’s tournament. Scoring was high and a single figure score of -9 was sufficient to get the job done. With less wind in the forecast this week, we suspect a return to a winning score between -14 to -17 is likely.
You can find the latest weather forecasts here.
Russell Henley
2.5pts WIN +4000 (MGM/Fanduel)
2.5pts Top 10 +350 (Draftkings)
or 2.5pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Cam Davis – Your Charles Schwab Challenge Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +4500 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +400 (Draftkings)
or 2pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Denny McCarthy
2pts WIN +7000 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +500 (Draftkings)
or 2pts E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 placed 1/5 odds)
Chistiaan Bezuidenhout
2.5pts WIN +9000 (Fanduel)
2.5pts Top 10 +650 (Draftkings)
or 2.5pts E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Brendon Todd – Your Charles Schwab Challenge Picks Best Value
2pts WIN +9000 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +600 (Draftkings)
or 2pts E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Andrew Putnam
1pt WIN +12000 (Fanduel)
1pt Top 10 +800 (Draftkings)
or 1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +320 (Draftkings) or +400 (Bet365)
Matthew NeSmith
0.5pts WIN +22000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365 or Draftkings)
And
2pts Top 40 +160 (Bet365) or +140 (Draftkings)
It has been a torrid start at the PGA Championship, with some of the best in the world struggling against an extremely tough course. We all expected a stern test of golf from Oak Hill. Just how tricky the course eventually played on Thursday particularly surprised many. Let’s hope for something easier for our PGA Championship 3rd Round Picks.
Perhaps nothing sums up the difficulty in predicting this week more than Sihwan Kim. Becoming somewhat of a laughing stock on the LIV Golf tour, Sihwan has finishes of 43, 45, 47, 48, and 48 in his last five starts. He has looked well out of his depth on a tour with just 48 players. He currently sits 35th this week beating the likes of Xander Schauffele, Cam Smith, and Jon Rahm.
Unfortunately, it has been a difficult start for our pre-tournament selections as well. One of the most disappointing showings came from Wyndham Clark, who for a moment at least came close to salvaging a made cut. We nearly saw a performance akin to what Clark did a few weeks ago at the Mexico Open, prior to his win for us at the Wells Fargo Championship at 75/1. Clark was 3-under through his first 10 holes. An untimely double bogey on the 2nd hole came after just finding one of the very deep fairway bunkers, where he was forced to advance the ball less than 100 yards. It effectively killed his momentum for the round.
We are now looking to Top 20s from Jaeger and Moore, as well as a Top 40 from Smalley at big odds, to salvage something from the week. Let’s aim for some redemption in these PGA Championship 3rd Round Picks.
Sepp Straka
0.5pts E/W +35000 (Unibet 4 places 1/5odds)
And
2.5pts Top 20 +188 (William Hill/TAB)
Certainly, Sepp Straka looks to be a straight misprice over at Unibet. This price of 350/1 is for a player who is currently in 10th place and 5 off the lead. Straka is 4th for SG: T2G and SG: OTT, 2nd for SG: APP, and 8th for driving accuracy. Also, he leads the field for greens in regulation and has only missed 5 greens all week.
He’ll need to find the putter to challenge for the lead, but I’d rather be searching for a hot flatstick than ball striking improvement. Also, with rain forecast all day Saturday, this could lend a hand to Straka in some slower greens and softer conditions. Of course, we all saw what he did at the Honda Classic in wet conditions Sunday. I’m happy to take a very small stake for an unlikely win, but mainly the plus money on a Top 20. I like him down to 250/1 for the win and 3/2 for a Top 20.
2.5pts at +145 Unibet or +155 Draftkings (Both Ties are Void)
Certainly, Dustin Johnson has leaned heavily on the putter across his first two days play. According to Data Golf, Davis has hit 10 poor shots. However, of those 7 were putts. Conversely, DJ has hit 9 poor shots. 8 of these have come from ball striking, with 4 poor drives and 4 poor approach shots. I’ll take the inflated price on Davis here, with any semblance of above average putting likely to get the job done
2.5pts -140 Bet365 (Tie separate bet) or -185 Draftkings (Ties are void)
Next in our PGA Championship 3rd Round Picks is Moore over Larrazabal. Pablo Larrazabal crawled to the cut line holding on for dear life. He has only hit 7 fairways across two rounds and has been doing everything with his short-game. Additionally, Larrazabal lost a whopping -3.54 on APP in Round 2.
Moore, on the other hand, is one of the best on the PGA Tour for long irons over 200+ yards. He lost -0.68 strokes on approach in round 2. However, when you dive deeper into his figures that included losing -1.83 on Hole 1 (his 10th). That means he gained +1.15 for the remaining 17 holes. Additionally, Data Golf have Moore ranked has 33rd in the world and Larrazabal as 269th. I’m happy to take that sort of ranking disparity on.
2.5pts -175 Unibet or -185 Draftkings (Both Ties are Void)
Undoubtedly, we saw a much better Rahm in Round 2, finding 14 GIR and 9/14 fairways. In contrast, Cam Smith has only found just 10 fairways all week and is relying heavily on his scrambling to keep it going. Particularly, this included a chip-in for birdie on 2, chipping to 23in away on 7th and 7in away on 17th to save par in his 2nd round.
Certainly Rahm is much longer off the tee, and I’m happy to take him here on a day that promises wet conditions with reduced roll on the fairways.
1pt Treble Davis/Rahm/Moore (Ties are void)
+505 Unibet, William Hill, or Draftkings
Sepp Straka
0.5pts E/W +35000 (Unibet 4 places 1/5odds)
And
2.5pts Top 20 +188 (William Hill/TAB)
2.5pts Cam Davis over DJ at
+145 Unibet or +155 Draftkings (Both Ties are Void)
2.5pts Moore over Larrazabal
-140 Bet365 (Tie separate bet) or -185 Draftkings (Ties are void)
2.5pts Rahm over Cam Smith
-175 Unibet or -185 Draftkings (Both Ties are Void)
1pt Treble Davis/Rahm/Moore (Ties are void)
+505 Unibet, William Hill, or Draftkings
Weather: With rain predicted all day, we may see some of the best scoring all tournament on Saturday. Heaviest rain is set to fall between 10am-2pm. Winds are steady all day, mild prevailing winds but some gusts up to 15-20mph are expected. However, winds are highest in the morning and then set to drop for a window between 1-4pm before rising again into the evening.
DFS Core: Cantlay, Svensson, Davis
Top (over 8.5k, in order of preference) Cantlay, Scheffler, Rahm, Hovland, Koepka, McIlroy, Morikawa
Mid (7.3k-8.5k, in order of preference) Svensson, Davis, Lowry, Theegala, Conners, Rose, Scott, Bradley, DeChambeau
Dumpster Diving (6k-7.2k, in order of preference) Straka, NeSmith, Suh, Jaeger, Pereira, KH Lee, Pendrith, Kitayama, Buckley
Thank you reading our 2023 PGA Championship 3rd Round picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!
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Coming off the Wyndham Clark 75/1 win, the AT&T Byron Nelson ended more with a whimper than a roar for our picks last week. We had leaned heavily into the Enhanced Outright Win number on Scottie Scheffler at +450. This remained for some time despite the withdrawal of second favourite Jordan Spieth. A raft of other names followed including mid-range options Spaun, Hubbard, and Smalley amongst others. Scheffler was of course there all week as expected, although an even par 3rd round proved a huge hurdle to his chances in the final round. We also notably had Ryan Palmer as joint leader entering the final day. Selected at 150/1, the Texan found some hometown advantage to complement some promising statistics to make a great charge at the title. Let’s hope we can secure a few more winning hopes this week with our PGA Championship picks!
Oak Hill Country Club, specifically the East Course, plays host this week. This venue has already played host to three PGA Championship, three US Opens, a Ryder Cup, and the US Amateur. This may imply that there is a myriad of data available for our PGA Championship picks. Those expectations should be somewhat tempered.
Significantly, the course underwent an extensive renovation at the hands of Andrew Green to restore Oak Hill closer to the original Donald Ross vision. Completed in 2020, this restoration should see quite a different course greet players this week. This was previously a test where narrow fairways littered by thousands of large tees saw a huge emphasis on driving accuracy. The removal of hundreds of trees opens up new lines of sight to players.
Explicitly, bunkering has been described as “aggressive”. These are not only strategically placed, but are almost links-like in nature. Mounds surrounding the edges and strong bunker faces will prove a true penalty if found. The rough is thick and it will make little difference whether you miss the fairway by 1 yard or 20 yards. All greens have been completely redone, extensively reshaped, and replaced with pure bentgrass. Holes 5, 6, and 15 are all significantly changed. This is a different golf course and should be treated as such.
There has been some great content produced by the Fried Egg and Golf Digest on these changes. Certainly, I highly recommend watching these to gain an understanding of the course.
Obviously, a newly redesigned golf course provides some challenges in finding related course form. Winged Foot (host of the 2020 US Open) and Bethpage Black (2019 PGA Championship and The Barclays 2016, 2012) provide the most obvious direct examples. Last year’s host Southern Hills should provide a decent correlation, in both approach metrics but also the likely wind we will see this weekend.
Quail Hollow should provide at least some noteworthy comparison, with comparative long approach metrics. Innisbrook Resort and the Copperhead Course holds a similar standing in that regard.
For bentgrass putting, last weeks tournament at TPC Craig Ranch holds the same grass type. Similarly, Wilmington Country Club and Augusta National can be used as a putting guide.
Although the restoration project does lend to an increased emphasis on driving distance compared to previous iterations hosted here, I don’t want to completely discount driving accuracy completely this week. There are many paths to the top of the mountain. However, I do believe the path to victory becomes somewhat narrower (pun intended) for those who lack distance off the tee. Markedly, the penal rough and surrounding mounds will see a distinct advantage for those who can regularly find the fairway.
I think we can also get a little more nuanced in how we treat driving distance this week. With potentially softer conditions due to winter and a wet Spring, runout may be less than at other majors. Also, there are some holes where a compulsory carry of 290 yards+ over hazards is required to gain a distinct advantage. Therefore, I prefer to use Carry Distance to a straight Driving Distance metric.
Following, we again expect a disproportionate number of approach shots to occur from over 200+ yards. 1/3 of approach shots will come from over that distance whilst 2/3 shots will occur over 150 yards. I have used both approach statistics from over 200+ yards as well as approach from rough 150+yards in our PGA Championship picks this week.
Finally, we simply expect this to provide a stern test of every golfers all round game. Accordingly, we expect a winning total in single figures from -5 to -9 is on the cards. Certainly, the list of likely potential winners is small. As such, we have provided reduced staking on many outright win bets to instead focus on place opportunities.
Generally, based on current forecasts there appears to be little to no weather edge leading into the second major of the year.
Firstly, Thursday AM looks to be brutally cold, with highs between 35-50F. Winds, however, will be lower than later that afternoon. Certainly, this looks to mitigate some of the impact from lost driving distance in the colder temperatures.
Subsequently, Friday looks to be the windier of the two opening days. Winds are expected between 9-12mph prevailing with gusts reaching 25-30mph. Basically, this looks to be consistent majority of the day. However, it may develop that Friday AM actually provides the windier conditions of the day.
Finally, if an edge were to develop I suspect that this would move in the direction of being Thursday AM/Friday PM groups. Particularly, for the purposes of DFS I would suggest building lineups with 20% being Thursday AM/Friday PM, 15% Thursday PM/Friday AM, and the remaining 65% mixed.
Latest weather forecasts can be found here
Cameron Young – Your PGA Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +3300 (MGM)
2.5pts Top 10 +320 (Fanduel)
or 2.5pts E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Tony Finau: Pre-Tournament Future
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds, Draftkings, Fanduel, & MGM)
Rickie Fowler
2pts WIN +5500 (Various)
2pts Top 10 +450 (Various)
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Wyndham Clark: Pre-Tournament Future – Your PGA Championship Picks Best Value
2pts E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds, Draftkings & Fanduel)
Taylor Moore
0.5pts WIN +16000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1000 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +450 (Bet365) or +400 (Draftkings)
Stephan Jaeger
0.5pts WIN +25000 (Draftkings)
0.5pts Top 10 +1400 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +475 (Bet365) or +550 (Draftkings)
Harris English
0.5pts WIN +18000 (Draftkings)
0.5pts Top 10 +1600 (Fanduel)
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365/TAB) or +490 (Fanduel)
And
2pts Top 40 +275 (Bet365) or +250 (Fanduel)
Alex Smalley
0.25pts WIN +55000 (Fanduel)
0.25pts Top 10 +2300 (Fanduel)
or 0.25pts E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (Bet365) or +850 Draftkings
And
2.5pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365/TAB) or +320 (Fanduel)
I’m willing to take a stab that we were a little too early on Cameron Young at the Wells Fargo Championship and mark him as our PGA Championship picks favourite this week.
Certainly, Cam Young ticks many of the key statistics we are looking for this week. For carry distance, Young boasts an impressive 3rd on the PGA Tour averaging 305 yards. He is a gainer on approach in all buckets above 100 yards. This includes in the 150+ yards from rough category, where his clubhead speed will prove an asset if straying from the short-grass this week. He displayed an affinity for bentgrass at The Masters this year, gaining +1.23 strokes per round putting around Augusta National.
Cameron Young perhaps should have won the PGA Championship last year. He was the best positioned of candidates on the final 9 Sunday, although eventually succumbing to finish 3rd. He will be better for that experience. Additionally, Southern Hills should provide a reasonable correlation to what we see this week at Oak Hill.
2nd at the 150th Open Championship hosted at St Andrews and 7th this year at The Masters, Young is building a handy resume of major championship results. Don’t be surprised to find him adding to those claims in the near future.
Finally, this is somewhat of a home tournament for Cam Young. He grew up in upstate New York, as he mentioned in this excellent Sports Illustrated interview. Specifically, he mentioned his comfort on these grass types and how it compares to golf courses where he learned to play the game. It further aids his claims to not only take out a major, but his first PGA Tour title at the same time.
Narrowly following up in our PGA Championship picks is Tony Finau, who we were able to snag at a juicy 33/1 where he can only be found at 23/1 at time of writing. For what it is worth, the 23/1 on offer would be at the bottom end of my positive EV and I would not look to take him any shorter than his current pricing.
Finau has been on a prolific winning streak notching 4 victories in his last 20 starts. I’ll acknowledge the calibre of those victories may be questioned. However, at the Mexico Open he beat Jon Rahm on a course where 63.1% of approach shots were from over 175 yards. At the Houston Open, he defeated Scheffler and Day. At the Rocket Mortgage, he beat Cantlay and Cam Young. Finally, the 3M Open he beat Sungjae Im. He has not finished worse than 31st since November 2022. Certainly, the depth of field at many of these events has been less than what we’ve become accustomed to at the new designated events. Conversely, he has also found a way to win more often, against some decent enough opponents.
Tony Finau in 2023 ranks 4th on approach over 200+ yards of those with 50+ shots recorded. He also ranks 9th for approach shots over 150 yards from the rough with 80+ attempts. Finau ranks 7th in this field for SG: APP and 6th for SG: T2G. His driving is both long and straight, which will be a key asset at this testing course.
Boasting an 8th at Winged Foot, multiple Masters Top 10s, and a 12th at Bethpage Black are all promising signs this could fit. It feels an inevitably that Finau will secure at least one major during his career. It may be this week.
I’m typically not overly enamoured by Rickie Fowler. Even in his prime, he often finished towards the top of leaderboards without competing. It felt much like a Xander or Cantlay may do now; oodles of talent but somewhat lacking in the Wins column to show for it.
However, count me impressed by Fowler’s resurgence of late. Since January, he has placed in the top 20 for 8 of his last 9 starts. This has also included 5 designated events. Data Golf rank him as 20th, whilst his OWGR still sits at 49th. That is always an opportunity where we can see some swift correction, as we did with Wyndham Clark when he won for us at big odds.
Sitting 10th for SG: APP in this field over the last 6 months is no small feat. Although on paper he may not be the longest for pure driving distance, his carry distance is an impressive 26th this season on the PGA Tour at 293.50 yards. That is plenty enough distance to be workable this week. Combine that with the fact Fowler is a big gainer in SG: Putt on bentgrass greens and is 12th for SG: Total it provides a promising complete profile for a golfer. He is simply far too long at 75/1.
5 finishes of 12th or better at the Masters, 23rd last year at Southern Hills when in far worse form, and a 36th and 7th at Bethpage Black tick the complimentary courses boxes. Perhaps we see a return to the winner circle for Fowler, just as we did for Jason Day last week.
Again, I feel fortunate we were able to pick up Wyndham Clark at big odds of 80/1 for this event when he can only be found at 66/1 at many books now. I still like him at that price here, especially where that includes 8 or more places. I’d not go as short as 60s.
It has been a stellar year for Wyndham Clark. Previously known simply as a bomber who could putt well, that all changed at the beginning of 2023. From January, Clark began finding his irons in a big way. The scale of improvement has been astounding. If looking at the last 2 years, Clark ranks a lowly 108th in this field for SG: APP. Over the last 6 months, he ranks 11th in this field. In 2022, the PGA Tour had Clark ranked as the 173rd golfer on SG: APP. This year, he ranks 20th.
The victory at Quail Hollow was dominant, winning by 4 strokes to Schauffele and 7 strokes ahead of everybody else in a designated event. That course should prove at least somewhat correlated to here, where strong driving and long irons are key. According to Data Golf, he is the 11th best player in the world where as his OWGR at 32nd. There may still be further correction coming.
The driving distance for Clark remains, where he ranks 6th this year in Carry Distance on the PGA Tour. And, finally, bentgrass may well be his best putting surface. His best putting performances in the past year came at the Fortinet Championship, Rocket Mortgage, and the RBC Canadian Open. All were on bentgrass.
As stated, given the stern test on offer I do believe the top of the board is likely where the winner of this event will come from. As such, you’ll notice a reduced stake for the win options and increased weighting on the Top Finishes markets for the below selections.
Another who I feel the market continues to disrespect is Taylor Moore. Moore secured his breakthrough win at the Valspar Championship. Copperhead Course has always provided a stern enough test. It took -10 for Moore to win this year and there have been multiple iterations where single digits has been sufficient. It also has a huge emphasis on long iron play, with 53% of approach shots this year over 175 yards.
Those long irons are really what draw me to Moore. This year, Moore ranks 2nd behind only Woodland for approach of those with 50+ recorded shots over 200+ yards. That is ahead of Rahm in 3rd, Finau in 4th, and Scheffler in 5th. Some truly elite company to be associated with. He is also 25th over the past 6 months for SG: OTT, gaining for both driving distance and accuracy.
Moore impressed in his major debut at the Masters, managing to make the cut and finishing 39th. It was a tournament where he played much better than the finishing position tells, with a final round +6 sending him flying down the leaderboard. This is easily excused in his first major appearance, especially in a heavily disrupted tournament where the 3rd round resumed on Sunday with the leaders only on the 7th hole. He remains a big gainer for putting in all his appearances featuring bentgrass greens.
11th at the RBC Heritage and 27th at the Wells Fargo came in designated events and marks a run of 11/12 events finishing 39th or better, highlighting this is no “flash in the pan”. I have lofty expectations for Taylor Moore’s career, as I do going into this week.
Jaeger was always a promising type. A stellar amateur career promised much when entering the realms of professional golf. He proceeded to yo-yo between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour, where he has now seemingly begun to find his feet.
I’ll start by saying that bentgrass is by far Jaeger’s preferred putting surface. We saw this just last week when charging through the field to finish 11th at TPC Craig Ranch. But, additionally, at Quail Hollow, the Rocket Mortgage, and Wilmington. Jaeger played in the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot, where he far exceeded expectation when finishing 34th whilst still on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Another whose golf ranking is seemingly out of kilter, Data Golf rank him at 48th versus his OWGR standing of 117th. He has finished 44th or better in 7/8 starts since the Genesis Invitational. 5 of those have been finishes of 27th or better. His long irons are excellent. Particularly, approach shots when playing from the rough from 150+ yards. He sits in the top 80% for SG per shot, proximity, GIR, and Poor Shot Avoidance for this category.
Most notably, Jaeger has quietly gone about adding a lot of driving distance in 2023. He ranks 36th in Carry Distance this season where he sat 94th last year. He is 23rd for SG: T2G in this field over the past 6 months, with his finishes held back somewhat by his putting. However, as mentioned, he is a far better putter on bentgrass and I think we could be in for an eye-catching performance from Jaeger here.
Once regarded as one of the rising stars of the game, 2021 saw Harris English playing in the Ryder Cup and winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions and Travelers Championship. His movement through the world of golf was halted following surgery to a hip injury in the 2021 season. We are beginning to see murmurs that English may soon be back towards his very best.
English impressed last outing when finishing 3rd at the designated event Wells Fargo Championship. He did so when sitting 2nd in the field behind only winner Wyndham Clark for SG: APP. As is often the case, gains in approach tend to be “stickier” whilst we expect spikes in putting performance to regress to a player’s mean much more quickly. 55.2% of approach shots were over 175 yards at Quail Hollow and 75.5% of approach shots were over 150 yards.
He is one of the biggest movers in SG: Putt when shifting to bentgrass greens. He can also boast a 4th place at the US Open at Winged Foot, which we expect to be well correlated to Oak Hill.
Finally, I round out my PGA Championship picks with a small and speculative play on Alex Smalley at huge odds of 500/1. Whereas this is somewhat of a home tournament for Cameron Young, this really is one for Alex Smalley who was born in Rochester, NY.
26 year old Alex Smalley jumped almost directly into the PGA Tour from a stellar amateur campaign. A rather weird transition due to COVID, he finished 48th, 4th, and 15th in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals to earn a PGA Tour card near immediately. It was an eye-catching rookie season, where he made it all the way to the second stage of the FedEx Cup playoffs at the BMW Championship in Wilmington.
Smalley impressed when finishing 18th on last sighting at the elevated Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. He was subsequently backed by me last week, before promptly withdrawing when it became clear he would make the PGA Championship field.
At his best, Smalley is both long and straight off the tee. His approach game has also been rounding into decent form, beyond the promising big uptick last appearance. Particularly, his approach numbers from the rough and 150+ yards are impressive. Smalley has now gained over or been at the field average for approach in his last 5 events.
Again, a debut professional major appearance is a lot to ask of any player. However, he is undeniably a rising talent who represents a great value in both Top 20 and Top 40 markets.
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It was another huge winner for this column last week, as Wyndham Clark secured a decisive victory at a huge price of 75/1. Another promising lead-in to this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson Picks!
We had been on Clark for quite sometime. Notably, his approach play had increased astronomically at the beginning of 2023. His Data Golf ranking was also substantially out of sync with his World Golf Ranking. This always provides a situation where imminent correction can be expected. We had also selected Clark the week before at the Mexico Open, as had many others.
A poor first round of 73 took him out of contention and threatened a missed cut, which was due solely to a lacklustre putting display. However, he followed this with rounds of 67, 69, and 65 to fight back to 24th. His price the following week had adjusted far too dramatically as a result and we were happy to pounce on the inflated odds.
Although this tournament was first established in 1944, TPC Craig Ranch has only played host for the two previous editions.
The course this year will play as a par 71 at 7,414 yards. The 12th hole has been converted from a par 5 to a long par 4. This is a direct attempt to curb scoring, which has got a little out of control in previous tournaments. At the end of the day, although the overall score may reduce slightly, this is a relatively straightforward test for our AT&T Byron Nelson Picks.
One unique aspect of the course is the zoysiagrass fairways. This is relatively rare on the PGA Tour, only appearing at TPC Southwind and East Lake. This grass has been both praised and criticized by various golfers. It tends to play on the softer side, with players describing it as “if playing off a tee” as it tends to hold water better than other variants. Others have commented that the ball can come out with some extra spin and even generate some unexpected flyers. Fairways are wide and the rough is not overly penal.
Greens are large at 6,778 sq ft and a return to bentgrass greens, last seen at Augusta National. TPC Southwind also conveniently features the same grass type to further strengthen those ties for our AT&T Byron Nelson Picks.
The final remark will be on the approach buckets to target. This course features a disproportionate number of approach shots over 200 yards, accounting for a third of all iron shots. Further, two thirds all strokes occur from over 150 yards.
Again, please be careful for your AT&T Byron Nelson Picks to use course history this week rather than tournament history due to only hosting the two prior events. In addition the two PGA Tour events, the course hosted the 2012 and 2008 Web.com Tour Championship tournaments. It also hosted a 2019 Korn Ferry Tour Q School second stage event.
TPC Southwind should be a key guide this week. The zoysiagrass fairways, similar approach numbers, and bentgrass greens provide a great correlation to TPC Craig Ranch. Additionally, this is host to the BMW Championship so elite performance in this strong field should translate nicely to a weaker event.
Other guidance can be found at TPC Summerlin, where low scoring and approach are key. TPC Scottsdale, another Tom Weiskopf design, also shares links to back-to-back winner K.H. Lee. Lee was runner up there prior to his first victory in 2021 and was the First Round Leader last year prior to his successful defense.
Another tricky weather week is upon us. I made a prediction on this week’s PGA Draftcast that this may end up a 54 hole tournament. Particularly, the Tour will not want to intrude on the build up to next week’s major, the PGA Championship. Thunderstorms are forecast everyday, with Saturday particularly looking very patchy. Certainly, any significant delays and a truncated tournament could well be on the cards. Significantly, this opens up options for in-play betting, as outsiders towards the top of the leaderboard may be able to hold on if the tournament is shortened.
Certainly, Thursday AM looks to be the lowest winds of the tournament. Friday PM also has predictions for the lower winds for round 2, although thunderstorms are also forecast.
I believe the Thursday AM/Friday PM is where any edge will fall. However, we are hampered somewhat by that thunderstorm threat, which may flip any edge which develops. I suggest building DFS lineups as 40% Thursday AM, 20% Thursday PM, and 40% mixed with a lean towards AM tee-times.
Scottie Scheffler – Your AT&T Byron Nelson Championship Picks Favourite
10pts WIN Only +400 (Draftkings/Fanduel)
or 10pts Enhanced Win Only +450 (Bet365)
Seamus Power
2pts WIN +4400 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +410 (Fanduel)
or 2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Stephan Jaeger
2pts WIN +5000 (MGM)
2pts Top 10 +410 (Fanduel)
or 2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2pts WIN +6600 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +550 (Fanduel)
or 2pts E/W +6000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Ryan Palmer
0.5pts WIN +15000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +900 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +410 (Fanduel)
Matthew NeSmith – Your AT&T Byron Nelson Championship Picks Best Value
0.5pts WIN +15000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1100 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +450 (Draftkings)
DFS Core: Scheffler, Bezuidenhout, NeSmith.
Thank you reading our 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
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