Hello friends. It’s the best golf week of the year and Sia, Joel, and Nick have a full DFS breakdown and bets for The Masters. Who do the guys think is going to be wearing the Green Jacket? Find out on The Masters DFS Breakdown
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Hello Friends and Welcome to the Masters: Initial Picks. The entire Win Daily PGA Team will have plenty of the usual content coming so stay tuned for that and stay tuned to Discord and the Win Daily Podcasts and Livestreams. Content related to course dynamics will come out later in the week (i.e. – The Insight Sheet), but I can tell you that I’m looking for ball strikers (OTT and APP) with a greater emphasis than usual OTT. Having the all-around game is certainly a bonus. One additional thing to keep in mind is that there are only 89 golfers in this field so ownership percentages will look a little higher than normal. More on that on our PGA show and in the Win Daily Sports Ownership Breakdown. Now let’s get to The Masters picks.
Dustin Johnson (11500) – The best in the world has been a little off lately, but he’s had a couple weeks to gather himself and even if the entire game isn’t pristine, he should do well. Pricing is soft as expected so there’s no issue with paying the heavy price and making a lineup you are comfortable with. Since 2015, DJ has finished 6th, 4th, 10th, 2nd and 1st at the Masters. No, that’s not a typo.
Bryson DeChambeau (10800) – Certainly a great course fit and the recent play checks out with a 3rd at the Players and a 1st at the API (match play struggles don’t worry me at all). Bryson’s finishes in previous Masters appearances are not great, but then again, most of those efforts he was literally a different player/species. I’m happy to take the upside at the heavy price.
Xander Schauffele (10000) – It’s early but I get the sense Xander is going to carry a slight ownership discount relative to big names right next to him like Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas. The truth is that Xander has been very mediocre as of late, but we know he has the all-around game to compete with the best, as he illustrated in 2019 with a 2nd place finish.
Patrick Cantlay (9800) – When you actually watch Cantlay play, nothing jumps off the screen relative to the Bryson’s and DJ’s of the world, but don’t be fooled as he is truly great in every area (OTT, APP, ARG and PUTT). A very fair price here.
Collin Morikawa (9600) – In 2020, Morikawa finished tied for 46th in his Masters debut. Now that he’s got some Masters experience under his belt, I’ll go ahead and lean on the ball striking and hope for a decent putting performance. Collin rates out as the best in the ball striker department (OTT and APP combined) since the beginning of this calendar year.
Viktor Hovland (8700) – Didn’t play in 2020, but did finish 32nd in his debut in 2019. Hovland’s ball striking is elite and his short game is coming along. If he were coming in with better recent form (3 below average tournaments in a row) then he’d be in the mid-9k range. I’m willing to take a chance on him in spite of the bad recent stretch.
Sungjae Im (8600) – Sungjae has been very consistent and has the game to succeed here, as evidenced by his 2nd place finish in his debut in 2020. His game translates to this course and his price gives you an easy and relatively safe mid-tier option to roster.
Sergio Garcia (7900) – Sergio has missed his last two cuts at The Masters, but he did win in 2017. He’s great OTT and great on APP and fits into my BS mold (Top 10 this Calendar year), but perhaps more importantly, his putting has picked up lately and I see no reason why he can’t contend here on Sunday.
Abraham Ancer (7400) – Granted, the 2020 track at the Masters is going to play differently than what we will have in 2021 (October versus April), but Ancer should come in with plenty of confidence as he finished T13 in 2020 in spite of a horrific 76 on Sunday. I like Ancer’s all-around game and expect him to outscore his price.
Joaquin Niemann (7400) – Plenty of upside with Neimann as he has been striking the ball very well in 2021. Those performances have translated into Top 30 finishes over his last 4 tournaments, which is good, but frankly I think he’s on the cusp of turning those Top 30’s into Top 15’s. Niemann has one appearance at The Masters which resulted in an MC in 2018.
Victor Perez (7000) – Very risky play who certainly won’t be in my core lineups, but his last two PGA Tour events he’s been very good with the ball striking and I’m hoping he may have found something to give your lineups big time ownership leverage as potential pivots from guys like Corey Conners.
Corey Conners (6900) – A great ball striker who is likely to be chalky so be prepared to pivot if needed. Conners is a touch underpriced here so I see value, particularly in cash game lineups. As for GPP’s, we will have plenty of pivots as the week progresses so stay tuned for those options as the content comes pouring out.
Si Woo Kim (6700) – Your ultimate hit or miss golfer who has had plenty of missed cuts in his recent play. With that said, he’s had some good showings as well with a 9th at the Players and some solid play at the Valero Texas Open. Add to that he’s got 3 Top 35’s his last 3 years at the Masters and you’ve got some upside here.
Ryan Palmer (6500) – Hasn’t played here in a long while but he does have plenty of experience at The Masters (his last appearance was a 33rd place finish in 2015). His ball striking game is too good to be this low in the pricing and he’s great value here.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in The Win Daily Sports PGA Discord.
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It’s a solid field at this week’s PGA Tournament as this may be the last tune up for some golfers before The Masters. Sia Nejad and Joel give their The Valero Texas Open DFS Breakdown and bets as well.
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For some of the golfers this week, Valero is the final tune up before the Masters, and for others, this is the last tournament before they get to watch the Masters on TV next week. Either way, we have decent field that is likely going to be playing in moderately windy conditions at this 7500 yard Par 72 at TPC San Antonio. I’m looking for ball strikers as usual, but I will also give a slight bump to Driving Accuracy and ARG. With that said, we are looking for ball strikers this week as is typically the case. The Win Daily team has quite a bit coming for this tournament, but let’s get started with the Valero Texas Open: Initial Picks.
Corey Conners (9500) – The ultimate ball striker who has great recent history plus a great track record at this course as the defending champion. I like his chances at an outright win.
Ryan Palmer (9400) – An earlier exit than he would have liked last week, but he may have actually played better than Jon Rahm. This is a Texas guy that has been striking the ball great lately. I don’t love the price and you can easily pivot to a less popular golfer like Branden Steele, but Palmer is a solid play.
Cameron Tringale (9300) – I like every single guy in this 9k range but I do think Tringale and Steele may be slightly lesser owned than the rest of the range, and that’s why I like Tringale here. His track record here isn’t great but he did have a 17th place finish last year. I like his all around game and think he will be competing on Sunday.
Chris Kirk (8600) – Has been very good lately in the ball striking department and is piling up the good finishes as a result. 3 of his last 4 at Valero have resulted in Top 15’s so he’s clearly comfortable here.
Adam Hadwin (8300) – Hasn’t been on many people’s radar lately and that’s for good reason, but his swing is starting to remind me of a Hadwin from a couple years ago and I think he’s a sneaky GPP option.
Brendan Grace (7800) – Another sneaky GPP option who has a game that may be rounding into form. He also has a great track record here with two Top 10’s his last two efforts here (2017 and 2016). Add to that the wind is likely to be consistently in the double digits this week and he should handle that just fine.
John Huh (7400) – His track record here is average at best, but his ball striking as of late has been excellent and I think he has sneaky value at this price.
Doug Ghim (7300) – Typically a good ball striker who has recently flashed plenty of upside. Now that his price has come down to a more realistic number I think he has some value here.
Matthew NeSmith (7100) – We are looking for good ball strikers, and while NeSmith had a bit of a rough patch earlier this month, he appears to have bounced back with a 36th place finish at the Honda. If he reverts back to his solid ball striking that he started 2021 with, he’ll make the cut and get your lineups in the green.
Roger Sloan (6700) – No history here other than an MC in 2019 but he’s good enough OTT and on APP to make the cut. He’s got 3 Top 25’s in his last three tournaments. Mind you, 2 of those 3 were at alternate PGA events, but I like the upside here when you consider the price.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Check out the SW every Wednesday night in the Win Daily Discord PGA Channel.
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The Florida swing is finally over and the PGA Tour is now in Texas for the WGC Dell-Technologies Match Play. It is imperative that you print a bracket or look at a bracket while you are creating your DFS teams. Why? You need to try and create a lineup that provides the opportunity for your selected players to last as long as possible in the tournament. More on this on tonight’s PGA Livestream (it has also already been discussed in Discord but feel free to ask any questions there as well). As for this Initial Picks article, I’m going to do things a bit differently by providing my favorite picks from each group, starting on the Dustin Johnson side of the bracket and then going to the Justin Thomas side of the bracket. Tune into the Livestream to find out who me and Joel Schrek have in the Final Four for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Group Picks.
Dustin Johnson side of the bracket [Group Winners]
Dustin Johnson – When you look at the manner in which points can be racked up in this tournament, it’s hard not to like DJ, particularly due to his relatively easy group draw.
Sungjae Im – His group has potential everywhere but I like the consistency of Im and expect him to emerge over those in his group.
Webb Simpson – Paul Casey will be the most popular one in this group and that’s for good reason, but I do have a lean this week to good putters and will take the good putting and pedigree of Webb. Gooch is an interesting darkhorse here.
Bryson DeChambeau – He’s playing too well and his group is relatively easy. Could rack up points in a similar fashion as DJ in his group stage.
Tony Finau – he is the class of his group and I expect him to emerge, but if you are looking to save some DFS cash, the other options are appealing.
Viktor Hovland – It’s either Hovland or Ancer here. I like both, but I’m going with Hovland who I think has such incredible consistency week to week.
Max Homa – I’ll note that Collin Morikawa rates out very well here and I know that @sicilykid is all over him this week (and of course Patrick is as well), but my putter bias this week is going to fade the potential inconsistency of Mori’s putter. Homa is a grinder and has been playing well.
Justin Thomas side of the bracket [Group Winners]
Justin Thomas – He’s in the alleged “group of death” but I don’t think he has much to fear. JT’s opponents in this group have quite the history but their current form doesn’t measure up.
Jordan Spieth – I think match play is the perfect type of tournament for Spieth and I think someone with his iron game and red hot putting could win this thing.
Patrick Cantlay – I think Cantlay wins his group by default.
Patrick Reed – You can make an argument for anyone in this group and I think Niemann and CBez are very compelling options if you need the DFS discount. With that said, I just love Reed’s mental makeup and putting skills in match play.
Xander Shauffelle – plenty of upside in this group but I’ll take the consistent option.
Cam Smith – Everyone knows that I’ve never been on team Rory and that remains this week. Poulter’s match play record is outstanding but I prefer Cam’s overall game. With that said, Lanto and Poulter are solid pivots if you need the savings.
Brendon Todd – Not a fan of EVR or English this week and that just leaves Daniel Berger who is less than a week removed from a WD and days removed from an MRI. And he’s going to play the 7 rounds it will take to win this tournament? No thanks, give me the classically good ball striker who has a good putter.
Ryan Palmer – There will be plenty of upsets this week and one of my biggest will be Ryan Palmer to come out of the John Rahm group. Yes it’s risky but he can get hot at any moment and when he does, he can play with the big boys.
Thanks for checking out my WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Group Picks! See everyone tonight on the Livestream. It’s very important this week to tune into the Livestream OR listen to the Podcast as this format is very unique. Getting into Discord is important as usual too. See you there!
This week we have a very tough course with a very watered-down field, which may mean we will see even more carnage than last week. My focus will be on APP with OTT and ARG trailing close behind. Make sure you stay with us on the PGA Livestream and in Discord for updates as there are plenty of potential WD’s still to come and some wind concerns. See you tonight on the Livestream! Here is The Honda Classic: Initial Picks.
Daniel Berger (10800) – Over the last 12 rounds he’s gaining in a big way with the BS (both APP and OTT) and we know his outstanding pedigree goes well beyond a mere 12 rounds. He’s also from this area and has made three cuts in a row the last three years, including a 4th place finish last year. Note, we need to monitor his rib injury so stay tuned for more news on that.
Talor Gooch (9300) – Definitely a golfer on the rise. His pricetag is high and I’m hopeful that creates some ownership leverage, but we’ll need to wait for Steven’s article to confirm. The ball striking has been very good, particularly on APP and he typically gains in all categories. He’s coming off a 5th last week and a 20th on this course in 2020.
Cameron Tringale (9100) – In every tournament he’s played this calendar year, dating back to AmEx in January, he’s gained in Ball Striking. His only questionable ball striking tournament was the API where he lost on APP (but still gained in overall BS).
Chris Kirk (9000) – He has really played well this year with 5 out of 6 made cuts, including two Top 10 finishes. Last week the putter let him down, but he’s been great with the ball striking and the short game and should be there on Sunday.
Brendan Steele (8700) – A steady ball striker who I’m not typically selecting in DFS, but in a watered down field, he feels like a relatively safe play with upside. He’s been making cuts at a prolific rate and his last four on this track were 4th, MC, 14th and 14th.
Keegan Bradley (8400) – He gained almost 3 strokes on APP on Sunday at the Players. He’s one of the best ball strikers in this field and is starting to find the putter.
Kevin Streelman (7700) – He’s coming off a missed cut, mostly thanks to a bad putter, but the ball striking this year has been very good. A good course fit in spite of not having much success here in the past.
Cameron Percy (6900) – Has been very consistent in the ball striking department and gained in all SG metrics last week at the Players. He’s made 4 out of 6 cuts in 2021 and in this watered down field, I expect him to make the cut again.
Scott Stallings (6500) – He gained on APP every single tourney this year (he’s played in 5). He’s going to need to be average OTT and average with the short game, which he sometimes struggles with, but I’m willing to take the chance here.
Secret Weapon (Less than 7k/Less than 5% owned) – see you in Discord.
See everyone tonight and please be sure to be in Discord tomorrow as these picks develop and as more articles come in from the team.
We’re in the middle of the Florida swing and the PGA Tour will make its next stop in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This week a few of the big-ticket golfers are taking the week off but it’s still a talent-laden field and you’ll want to focus upon great ball strikers, particularly good APP players. We will have a ton of content coming up on our site, and of course, tonight on the Win Daily PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST (airing on our Win Daily Sports YouTube channel and @windailysports on Twitter). Now let’s get to the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Initial Picks.
Viktor Hovland (10600) – There’s really no need for me to convince you on this one. He’s so good in the ball striking department and the short game is there. At some point he’s not going to have a great tournament and it’s up to you to decide if you’re willing to take that chance this week.
Tyrrell Hatton (10000) – I liked him last week and I like him again this week. His ball striking is elite and if it wasn’t for his ARG game last week he would have been in much better shape. Reigning champ at the API.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (9800) – There’s nothing about his game that makes him elite, but I think Fitz will do just fine in this field due to his great all around game and his ability to play in potential tough conditions. Last two finishes here he’s been 9th and 2nd.
Sungjae Im (9700) – Plays great in Florida as evidenced by his great track record here (back to back 3rd place finishes). His APP numbers haven’t been elite since the start of the calendar year but I expect that to bounce back this week. He should gain in all other SG categories with ease this week.
Paul Casey (9100) – A great ball striker who also rates out well with the long irons. Has played well overseas this year and has played well on the PGA Tour thus far. Casey is never a sure thing but he’s probably a bit underpriced here.
Talor Gooch (7900) – He can be hit or miss and maybe priced a bit high but I like his comfort level here with a 13th and 26th the only two times he’s played here. As of late he’s picked up the iron play and recent form has also been good with the long iron play, which he’ll need here.
Charley Hoffman (7600) – I almost never write this guy up, but back in the day he was always good for some 1st Round Leader pizza money. Earlier this year he had a troubling stretch with a couple WDs and an MC, but since that time has made two cuts in a row including a 7th at AT&T. What really strikes me are his finishing positions at API (13th, MC, 14th and 2nd over the last four years).
Emiliano Grillo (7400) – We’re looking for great ball strikers who are also good with the APP game in particular and Grillo fits the mold. His putting is a huge question mark but I’m willing to look past it for Grillo (I’ll note that I’ll likely roster some Byeong Hun An as well who is also a great ball striker with poor putting).
Henrik Norlander (7200) – Ownership should be relatively low thanks to an MC last time out and an MC the only time he played API. Norlander has flashed some upside this year and I think is undervalued by at least a few hundred DK dollars. The ball striking is typically very good and he’ll need the putter to be decent to pay off.
Luke List (7200) – Coming off an MC at Genesis, but has great course history with 10th, 7th and 17th the only three times here. His ball striking this calendar year has been very good and has plenty of upside.
Matthew NeSmith (6900) – An MC his only time at the API but the ball striking has been excellent and I think NeSmith is undervalued at this price.
Cameron Percy (6500) – This recent Win Daily Secret Weapon had a nice week in Puerto Rico last week and continues to strike the ball well. His metrics on APP are particularly good and I think he’s steady enough to make the cut and slowly climb the middle section of the leaderboard over the weekend.
Tom Hoge (6500) – A handful of missed cuts earlier this year had things looking bleak for Hoge, but he’s made two cuts in a row and that included a 12th at the AT&T. He’s played here twice and finished well inside the Top 30 both times. Pretty decent floor considering the price range.
Thanks for reading my Arnold Palmer Invitational: Initial Picks. See you tonight on the PGA Livestream and if you’re not already signed up for one of our memberships get to windailysports.com and sign up! See you tonight and see you in Discord.
The PGA Tour travels to the opposite coast this week for the first of four Florida events. We have an interesting twist as this is the first time the Concession course will be played on the PGA Tour, and therefore, we have no course history to utilize (other than a few in this field who played this course in the NCAA championship 6 years ago). We will focus on the typical SG metrics and recent form and we will perhaps take a few more chances than normal at this no-cut event. Stay tuned for much more content from the Win Daily team, including our Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for the WGC-Workday Championship.
Jon Rahm (11100) – He was excellent last week and really made a charge on Sunday but wasn’t enough to catch the leaders. One of the best in the world T2G and in good form.
Xander Shaufffele (10800) – I’m hoping ownership is down on Xander as a result of his underwhelming finish at Riviera and associated lack of coverage. His 15th place finish was mostly a result of being bad OTT on Thursday and bad with the putter on Sunday. Other than that, the ball striking and game was great and Xander is very close to winning a tournament.
Bryson DeChambeau (9900) – Bryson had some rust on Thursday at Riviera, but he rounded into form on Friday. He was atrocious with the putter on Friday losing almost 3 strokes, but he was best in the field T2G that very same day. I see the putter regressing to the mean and I’m hoping the T2G stays true.
Tyrrell Hatton (9600) – He’s simply a great golfer. We haven’t seen him on the PGA Tour this year, but he’s been racking up solid finishes overseas (6th at The Saudi International, 22nd at Omega Dubai Desert Classic and 1st at Abu Dhabi). Great with the irons and the all-around game is there.
Viktor Hovland (9400) – Don’t be shocked if this guy is considered one of the best in the world at some point within the next couple of years. His ball striking is impeccable and his short game continues to improve and this is great value at this price.
Joaquin Niemann (8100) – We are looking for upside, particularly in no-cut events, and Niemann flashed that upside for the first two rounds at Riviera and has also flashed it this year with 2nd place finishes at the Sony and the Sentry. Don’t worry about his blow up round of a 78 last Saturday as that’s going to happen in brutal wind conditions to the best of golfers.
Will Zalatoris (8000) – This is a very good price for a great ball striker who has been consistently finishing well in stacked fields. This week he doesn’t need to worry about lack of course history/experience because almost nobody in this field has played here.
Ryan Palmer (7200) – Another misprice for Mr. Palmer that you probably need to take advantage of. Palmer’s betting odds are 55 to 1, which is shorter than almost everyone in the 8k range. What does that mean? It means the sportsbooks value him as a golfer in the upper 8k class. Grab the value.
Abraham Ancer (6800) – Missed cut last week but keep in mind he had zero prep time as he was stuck in Texas. Ancer’s recent form is pretty solid with the exception of a bad round here or there. The one bad round won’t hurt him too much in this no-cut event and he has enough upside to justify at this price.
Rasmus Hojgaard (6700) – Probably will be a nice pivot off of some of the other more popular European golfers in this range. Hojgaard has been very solid lately with 6th, 9th and 25th place finish in his last three tournaments overseas. He’s also flashed the ability to go low (final round of Saudi International he shot a 62).
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – stay tuned to Discord.
See everyone tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Apple podcasts and Spotify and to our YouTube page.
We remain in California for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera. This course presents the best field we’ve seen so far in 2020 and presents the most difficult test we’ve seen as well. You will want to focus on golfers that have a good all-around game as ARG and PUTT definitely come into play a bit more than usual. This is a relatively long track so being long off the tee helps, but is not critical to success. More on the course and the field on tonight’s Win Daily PGA Livestream. See you tonight at 8:00 EST. As usual, we have a ton of content coming from the rest of the team. Let’s get started with The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks.
Dustin Johnson (11300) – He’s the best in the world. His ball striking and short game are excellent. His price point isn’t cost prohibitive. Not sure we need much additional analysis on this one. If I had to pick a guy I like next best in the elite range, it’s likely Bryson.
Xander Schauffele (9900) – Much like Cantlay (below) this guy checks all the boxes and picks up strokes in every SG category. Even better he’s coming dangerously close to being one of the best golfers in the world with near wins (2nd, 2nd and 5th over his last three tournaments). Solid value at this price.
Patrick Cantlay (9600) – Gains strokes in every category in a pretty significant way and has been very good lately with a 3rd, 2nd and 13th over his last three. He has a great track record as you might expect.
Viktor Hovland (8700) – No history here but his recent history is excellent and the ball striking metrics jump off the page. Add to that he has significantly improved the short game and Hovland carries a ton of value.
Max Homa (8200) – A very fair price for a guy who has turned his game around and made 5 cuts in a row, which culminated in a gritty 7th place finish last week at the AT&T. Add to that a 5th place finish last year and 37th the year prior and you likely have a safe floor with plenty of upside.
Cameron Davis (7500) – Gains strokes in every category and he’s long off the tee. He’s only played here once (2019) and it was a missed cut. But he finished 14th last week after having a bad Day 1 and made three cuts prior to that. Plenty of upside at this price.
James Hahn (7500) – A Cali guy who appears to feel right at home at this venue with a 13th, 14th and 28th place finish in his last three efforts here. I’d call Hahn a high risk/high reward play as he is coming off an MC, 10th and MC in his last three (we, of course, had him as the SW during the 10th place finish). With that said, he is striking the ball well and is gaining strokes in all categories.
Luke List (7300) – A long hitter who has been pretty great with the ball striking lately. He’s finished within the top 30 over his last three tournaments. Interestingly, he’s also finished within the top 30 over his last three efforts on this track.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (7100) – Brought to my attention on Monday’s The First Cut Podcast with Rick Gehman and Greg Ducharme (and yours truly). KH Lee has made 4 out of 5 cuts including a 2nd place finish at the Waste Management. Further, he finished 13th and 25th his only two times on this track.
Matthew NeSmith (6900) – His APP game has been too good to ignore. He’s not the best course fit but if the APP numbers stay true (gained 1.88 strokes on APP per round at the AT&T), then he hits value easily.
Michael Thompson (6700) – Nothing flashy about this guy, but I’ve been on him for a while now and he continues to make cuts (4 out of his last 5). He also finished 7th here in 2019.
Brian Stuard (6400) – No such thing as a “safe option” in this range, but if you need to dip down this low you may as well take a guy that has made 4 of his last 5 cuts and made two cuts in a row at Riviera, including a Top 25. Stuard is gaining strokes in every category other than OTT so he’s a bargain.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/under 5% owned) – Currently 29-3 and featured Cameron Percy and James Hahn the last two weeks. Get into Discord Wednesday night for the Secret Weapon.
Don’t forget to join us tonight on the Win Daily YouTube channel or @windailysports on Twitter. Feel free to jump in the chat and ask any questions or submit any lineups that you want our live commentary on. See you tonight.
The PGA Tour is headed back to Cali for the AT&T Pebble Beach No-Am and we have another two course rotation this week between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill (three of the four rounds will be on Pebble Beach). These two courses are relatively short but there is some benefit in being a long hitter on the gettable Par 5’s. With that said, all types of golfers have won this event and all are in play. My focus will be the usual APP and then OTT, but I’ll have a slightly bigger emphasis than normal on ARG as these POA greens are small and we may have some wind issues to deal with. Join us for the Win Daily PGA Livestream for more on the picks below and many more picks from me and @draftmasterflex. Let’s get to the AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks.
Patrick Cantlay (11300) – The ball striking metrics jump off the page relative to the field now that Dustin Johnson has withdrawn. I think Cantlay has the most win equity in this tournament and he is properly priced. He is also playing in his home state which should help.
Paul Casey (10400) – He won on the Euro Tour just two weeks ago and finished tied for 8th at The AmEx. Ball striking is classically good with Casey and it’s always the short game that trips him up. That could happen again, but recent history and course history give me the impression he will be very comfortable this weekend.
Francesco Molinari (9300) – Speaking of tied for 8th at the AmEx, Paul Casey was tied with none other than the resurgent Molinari. He has sported two top 10 finishes in his last two events and seems to have found the game that he completely lost last year. I won’t be overweight on Francesco but he’s a good course fit and is playing very well.
Kevin Streelman (8900) – He seems overpriced, even in this field, but his course history here is nothing short of spectacular. In his last 5 tournaments at Pebble he has finished 2nd, 7th, 6th, 14th and 17th. Add to that his recent form has been very good.
Henrik Norlander (8700) – Has fared pretty well here in the past, but more importantly, is quickly becoming a very good golfer. In his last three tournaments he has finished 22nd, 2nd and 12th and he’s been great OTT and on APP. The short game has been average, but he more than makes up for it with the ball striking.
Cameron Tringale (8500) – course history here is below average but recent history is very good and feels like a very good fit with his APP game. He’ll lose a little OTT but I think Tringale will be good everywhere else. Last week in Discord, a subscriber stated that Tringale’s price was “disrespectful” and that turned out to be true. Hoping to have him churn out another good score this week.
Matt Jones (8100) – Jones consistently makes cuts and finished 5th here last year. His ball striking numbers could be better, but in my estimation he’s a very under the radar guy with upside.
Peter Malnati (7800) – In this tournament the 7k range becomes pretty risky, but you’re going to have to take some big swings and there’s no bigger swing than Peter Malnati who can really be erratic with his ball striking. He can get hot in an instant and that is evidenced in his rencent history and his course history. Plenty of upside here.
Harold Varner III (7700) – HV3 simply hasn’t been good for quite some time, but I think we saw something last week with his 13th place finish in terms of putting a full four rounds together. If you look at the quality of this field, if HV3 can even be close to what he was last week, then he pays off his pricetag and then some.
Scott Stallings (7500) – I’m not going to be overweight on Stallings as there are plenty of guys that I want to take shots on in the 7k range (more on that during the Livestream/Podcast), but I am a fan of Stallings in general as his ball striking and short game are both solid. He has a missed cut here in 2020 but prior to that he had a 3rd, 7th and 14th place finish.
Michael Thompson (7200) – He and Kirk really let me down last week but I’ll probably go back to both in some lineups. Thompson will lose strokes OTT but should gain in other areas. His course history includes a 10th place finish in 2019 but also three missed cuts surrounding that. A hunch play for me as I liked the form he exhibited prior to last week’s missed cut.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – I purposely did not include any 6k golfers in this Initial Picks article because I think this range is very bad this week. I would avoid this range entirely if you can, other than the Secret Weapon of course, which will be in Discord Wednesday night. You can also tune into tonight’s Livestream for more on 6k golfers to consider.
Thanks for reading my AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks! Make sure to check back with Win Daily Sports all week for more content. See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST for the Win Daily PGA Livestream with Michael, Joel and myself.
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