For the second week in a row, entering the final day of the Charles Schwab Challenge we had a leader several shots in front and seemingly cruising to victory. And, once again, we were treated to watching the best in the game capitulate completely as a golfer 7 shots back came through to win (this time in the form of Sam Burns rather than Justin Thomas).
The Charles Schwab Challenge started in fine fashion for our tips, with Webb Simpson and Harold Varner III both securing a first-round lead alongside 6 others and Kevin Na just one shot off the leading pack. HV3 emerged as the most likely of our tips to compete and, with 12 holes to play, he held a share of the lead at 10 under looking perhaps the most likely contender to come through. Fast-forward 90 minutes, filled with winds where several players struggled with putts less than 5 feet such was the ferocity, and he finished at even par and 9 shots off the score needed to make the playoff. I said it last week and I’ll say it again: golf is a wonderful sport.
Fortunately, Kevin Na came through for a cash with a Top 10 paying $6.50 to at least ease some of the pain of the HV3 blow-up. Overall, a small loss for the week on the PGA Tour taking our ROI to 15%. In better news, over on the DP World Tour tips delivered us our 6th win of the year with Victor Perez cashing at 56/1 but the allure of the double on both sides of the pond still eludes us.
This week the tour moves to Dublin (Ohio variety) for another landmark tournament. As Jack Nicklaus’ tournament, it is one of the most prestigious events of the year outside of the majors and has attracted a warranted elite field as a result. Who should you back this week? This is your weekly golf deep dive and Memorial Tournament Betting Tips.
Course Analysis
Once again, we arrive at a course where the tournament has been staged since 1976 so there is plenty of data to fill your boots. In saying that, some substantial renovations were made in 2021, including adding an extra 150 yards to play as a 7,533-yard par 72. Most of this distance was added to the par 5s, which should not disadvantage the shorter hitters as much. As always, this is the maximum distance the course can play with several tee options at the discretion of the tournament director.
Fairways aren’t the most restrictive at 28 yards average width at 300 yards however this does narrow to 24 yards at 325 yards for the longer drivers. Accuracy trumps distance here traditionally where, if you do miss the fairway, you are greeted by tree-lined fairways, bunkers, and most notably severe, thick 4-inch Kentucky bluegrass rough, ryegrass, and fescue.
Greens are not only protected by this rough but are often guarded by several bunkers and water. Measuring as smaller than tour average at 5,000 sq ft on average, they make for imposing targets. Greens are again bentgrass as have been seen at the last few tournaments, so look for recent good putting performances for some indication there. Even the best will inevitably miss the greens and a solid week of driving accuracy, approach play, and scrambling will be paramount to who finds victory come Sunday.
Weather
It is first worth noting some extended historical forecast to the week. In May, there was more than double the normal rainfall for this part of the world, with over 9 inches of rain in a month that typically only gets 4 inches. Rain and thunderstorms are predicted for Wednesday further softening the course. I expect this will add some distance to the course, as well as ensuring that thick rough will be at full strength, whilst making greens that have been firm previously a tad softer in this iteration.
Thunderstorms and cooler weather are predicted to carry on into Thursday morning, and potentially until early afternoon, with heavy rain on the cards. Winds will be at their worst in the afternoon with prevailing winds at 10-14mph and gusts up to 20-25mph.
Friday should see the skies clear and the winds will be fairly moderate, topping out at 8-11mph prevailing and 18-21mph gusts in the afternoon. Saturday and Sunday should see still, sunny conditions remain for the rest of the tournament and better scoring opportunities for all.
I do prefer a Thursday PM/Friday AM in this instance. The heavy rain and thunderstorms predicted on Thursday morning risk delaying play, which not only proves disruptive for players but could see some of the Thursday AM tee-times miss out on what are typically the best scoring conditions with calmer winds in the morning. Depending on the significance of any delays, this could see some afternoon tee-times starting later when winds begin to calm as the evening draws on or even moving to Friday AM to finish their rounds in what should be much calmer conditions.
https://www.pgatour.com/tee-times.html
The heavy rain, if play is allowed, will make the greens softer but will also make the course play even longer. Throw in the risk of muddy balls adding some additional variance and the thick rough being now wet will make any wayward shot a very tough recovery to save par. As always, there is a risk in playing a weather draw. The benefit is that you can end up with a wave of players at a decent advantage to the alternate group, in a game where the smallest of margins do matter.
Related Course Form
In tips this week, prior form here at Muirfield Village Golf Club provides guidance towards the picks alongside Innisbrook Copperhead Course (home of Valspar Championship, where the key metrics to success are driving accuracy, approach, and ATG play) and PGA National (a shorter, but tricky Nicklaus designed course and host of The Honda Classic).
The Memorial Tournament – Golf Betting Tips
Suggested Staking
- Shane Lowry 2pts E/W $26.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick 2pts E/W $29.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Chris Kirk 1pt E/W $71.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Chris Kirk 2pts Top 10 $7.00 (Bet365 or TAB)
- Alex Noren 1pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Alex Noren 2pts Top 10 $11.00 (TAB)
- Brendan Steele 0.5pt E/W $141.00 (Bet365, 10 places 1/7 odds)
- Brendan Steele 1pt Top 20 $6.00 (Bet365)
- Adam Long 0.5pt E/W $176.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Adam Long 1pt Top 20 $5.50 (Bet365)
Shane Lowry
We all need to continue to reassess our expectations of Shane Lowry, who is not only having his best year ever but still outperforms some of the much shorter priced glamour names of the elite. For SG: Total (i.e. how much did you beat the field) Lowry ranks 6th over the last 12 months, 2nd for the last 6 months, and 2nd for the last 3 months. His worst finish in this calendar year was a 24th in the Dubai Desert Classic in January.
Included in this fantastic run of form is a 12th at the Valspar and 2nd a The Honda Classic this year (a very unfortunate loss to Kurt Kitayama with a violent downpour on the 18th), both of which provide solid indications here. This stands alongside finishing 6th at this tournament in 2021 where he gained in every metric on the field. I like that last time we saw him at PGA Championship, his final round in tough conditions he was one of only 19 players to shoot under par and he did this by finishing in the top 10 for SG: Approach and top 20 for SG: ATG.
This is the type of test that should suit Lowry, who gains on the tour average in every metric, but approach play and around-the-green proving his biggest strengths. He has historically performed best at gritty type affairs where scoring doesn’t get overly out of hand and being a previous major winner, he has the credentials to handle this type of event.
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Another who is having an outstanding year, the current bet boosted odds being offered by Bet365 pushes him into positive expected value where he can be found as short as 20/1 elsewhere.
Fitzpatrick has been ultra-consistent, finishing in the Top 20 in 8 out of his 10 starts this year and 4 of those being 6th or better. Of course, the biggest question many ask is that he is yet to get that elusive “W” on the PGA Tour. Fitzpatrick is a proven winner elsewhere, amassing 8 wins on the DP World Tour and subsidiaries, including the season-ending 2020 DP World Tour Championship final winning $3,000,000 where he also finished 2nd in 2021. Still just 27, the win will come, and it could well be here.
His last performance at the PGA Championship was an impressive 5th when he was on the wrong side of a significant weather disadvantage, marking his best finish in a major, and following 14th at The Masters this year. He finished 7th for both SG: ATG and SG: Putting on those undulating bentgrass greens, as well as having finished 5th for SG: Putting on the bentgrass greens at Wells Fargo Championship in his prior start.
The biggest weakness for Fitzpatrick has long been his lack of distance off the tee. That changed towards the end of last year, when his coach commented they had been making some changes and he had unlocked an additional 20 yards off the tee. Ever since, his 50-round moving average has seen him gain driving distance on the field, including at his last 9 consecutive events. Over the last 6 months, the accurate Fitzpatrick is ranked 11th for SG: OTT and 7th for SG: T2G.
Unlocking that distance could be the last piece to the puzzle, at an event where Fitzy already holds a 3rd in 2020 and his analytical approach should help him navigate this test.
Chris Kirk
Being able to dive down the board and pick up Kirk at this price is a steal. Over the last 3 months, Kirk ranks 5th in this field for SG: T2G (i.e. everything except putting) ahead of the likes of Morikawa, Zalatoris, Schauffele, Rahm, and Cantlay. Extend this out to 6 months, and he still rates out as 8th in this field.
Of promise, he has gained strokes on the field for putting in his last two weeks when 15th at the Charles Schwab Challenge (where he won in 2015) and 5th at the PGA Championship with both coming on bentgrass greens.
This is of course likely a peak, but one we should continue to ride and especially whilst the odds on offer are available. The 7th at the Nicklaus designed PGA National earlier this year bodes well, as does holding a 4th here at Muirfield all be it some time ago. His 26th here last year should also be read in the context of having arrived in far worse form than we find him now, the deeper dive into that performance showing it came after a run of MC-MC-69.
Alex Noren
Having been an incredibly popular pick at the PGA Championship, it feels that Noren is a somewhat forgotten name this week. One missed cut at a major should not change the thesis so significantly on a golfer who since February has finished 12th or better in 4 of 8 strokeplay events since February.
Included in that are a 5th at The Honda Classic (3rd in 2018) and 12th at the Valspar Championship (alongside 21st last year). A 6th at TPC Scottsdale is also not the worst course to find comparisons as well if you wanted to delve deeper, as well as an admirable 13th here last year coming off a run of middling to poor results (49-MC-46-25-21-21-55).
Over the last 6 months, Noren rates out 13th for SG: Approach (his best iron performance since 2018) and 9th for SG: Putting having gained strokes putting 6/6 most recent events. The 11 time DP World Tour winner has massive upside, and provides a lot of value in this range.
Brendan Steele
It was rather pleasing that after making Brendan Steele my first click on market open Monday I was able to watch several other tipsters identify him, including our own expert Sia Nejad.
I do tend to leave my bets towards the 24 hours prior to start, in order to monitor weather and tee-times. In this instance, the price was so absurd it really didn’t matter, and we got lucky that he did secure a Thursday PM tee-time. Unfortunately for many, I believe the 140/1 with 10 places may be long gone as he has been backed into 100/1 on most international markets (Draftkings Sportsbook still have +15000 and a Top 10 at +1000).
Brendan Steele ranks as the 6th best player in this field for SG: T2G, 4th for SG: OTT, and 10th for SG: Approach over the last 3 months. That level of ball-striking is impressive at the best of times, but to then be able to secure that player well into triple figures is ludicrous.
The 9th at the PGA Championship was certainly impressive, where he was 4th in the field for SG: Approach. Combined with some positive signs with the putter and some solid correlated Nicklaus course form at The Honda Classic (33-11-14-14-MC-4-3-MC) and here at Muirfield where he has made his last 7 cuts (20-57-41-52-13-37), it is easy to see why Steele is one of the top value plays from my model this week.
Adam Long
In what is certainly a speculative play, Long popped in my model this week after a sudden and significant jump in his SG: Approach last week.
He managed to turn out his best iron performance since March 2020 which was, coincidentally, at another Nicklaus course when 27th at The Honda Classic. Long played reasonably well here last year too, when finishing 26th. This should again be read in context as he had missed the cut at 6/8 of his performances before that.
Traditionally a strong putter, Long has gained strokes putting in 6/7 of his last tournaments. Combine that with his accuracy off the tee and the sudden spike in approach play, I am happy to risk a small play at very long odds.
As always, please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. Wishing you all the best with your picks and another successful week.
