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RBC Heritage Picks & Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

What a Masters tournament we experienced! Certainly Jon Rahm fulfilled his potential in spades, coming through to dominate a resurgent Brooks Koepka in the final round. With multiple delays and extreme weather, it was an intriguing tournament. Naturally, a bit of lethargy and post-Major hangover is to be expected. You can only imagine how the players feel having been at Augusta National from dawn to dusk. However, another designated event with a huge purse awaits for our 2023 RBC Heritage picks!

In hindsight, Jon Rahm may have seen an obvious winner at The Masters. Our two courses that provided key indicators were the Plantation and Riviera. Obviously, Jon Rahm won both of those tournaments this year. However, he also managed to overcome a huge weather disadvantage. The wave Jon Rahm emerged from played +2.79 strokes harder for the first two rounds. Certainly, that is likely to be the biggest weather edge we see all year. It goes a long way to indicate just how far ahead of the field Rahm was, winning by 4 strokes but playing in a weather wave that on paper was another 3 strokes more difficult than what Koepka played in. Patrick Reed and Russell Henley were the two closest to Rahm from that wave, 5 shots back at -7. It was dominant, impressive, and a well deserved victory.

Course Analysis for our RBC Heritage Picks

Obviously, there is a much stronger field as a result of the elevated status of this event in 2023. The unique and particular Harbour Town Golf Links plays host this week. However, don’t let the name deceive you; the course itself is, for the most part, more like a parkland course than a links.

Only two holes are by the ocean (although water features on all 18 holes) and the course features tree-lined fairways. In some cases, this results in a real sense of claustrophobia off the tee. Not only are the penalties for straying off the tee severe, even finding the fairway may not be enough if you end up on the wrong side due to overhanging trees blocking the path to the hole.

The greens are some of the smallest on the entire PGA Tour and accurate approach play is imperative for your RBC Heritage Picks. Also, a strong scrambling performance will play a factor with the invariable greens missed. Putting is minimized somewhat due to the miniscule nature of the green complexes. However, note that putting from 5ft-15ft does receive a small boost due to that missed GIR potential.

Due to this distinctive style, despite only being a 7,121 yard par-71 the course demands restraint off the tee and has one of the lowest average driving distance on tour. Certainly, players do club down to ensure they position their shot where they need. This also has additional effect of seeing more than double the tour average for number of shots between 175-200 yards as players all end up playing a similar length. Driver length becomes mostly irrelevant.

Course Comps for our 2023 RBC Heritage Picks

Pete Dye’s iconic course designs feature readily on the tour. But, of those, TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship). and Austin Country Club (WGC Matchplay) provide short courses where accuracy and scrambling come to the fore.

The Sea Island Plantation Course (RSM Classic) has strong form links here, again being coastal with winds in play but plentiful trees and bunkering meaning driving accuracy and approach are vital.

Sedgefield Country Club maintains links as a positional course where shorter drivers can thrive but driving accuracy is at a premium. Sedgefield is also highly correlated to TPC Sawgrass, adding to those ties for your RBC Heritage picks.

Weather

Unfortunately, another volatile week looks to be on the cards for our RBC Heritage Picks.

Certainly, on paper Thursday AM looks to be the kindest winds of the day. Concurrently, Thursday PM should see heavy gusts and rain entering the area. However, tempering this is the possibility of thunderstorms in the afternoon, which threaten to flip this edge on it’s head. Knowing how severe and when these thunderstorms may hit is an exercise fraught with risk and uncertainty.

Additionally, Friday weather should be calm all day with a small possibility of showers. Therefore, with the thunderstorms, there remains a real possibility that Thursday PM tee times may end up playing majority of their two rounds in the very best of conditions Friday.

Certainly, from a DFS standpoint, I recommend building stacks in both directions. I will have a slight lean on the Thursday PM and Friday AM tee times due to the threat of lightning delaying play. Therefore, my DFS construction will be 40% PM/AM, 30% AM/PM, and 30% mixed.

You can find latest weather reports here.

RBC Heritage Picks & Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Matt Kuchar
2.5pts WIN +5000 Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +400 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Russell Henley – Your RBC Heritage Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +7500 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +400 Draftkings/MGM
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Si Woo Kim
2pts WIN +7500 MGM
2pts Top 10 +550 MGM
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk – Your RBC Heritage Picks Best Value
1pt WIN +8000 Draftkings/MGM
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +275 Draftkings

Wyndham Clark
1pt WIN +10000 Fanduel/MGM
1pt Top 10 +850 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +360 Draftkings

J.J. Spaun
1pt WIN +15000 MGM
1pt Top 10 +800 Fanduel/Draftkings/MGM (+1000 Bet365)
or 1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 MGM

Stephan Jaeger – Your RBC Heritage Picks Longshot
0.5pts WIN +19000 Fanduel
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 Draftkings (+1400 Bet365)
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 Fanduel
And
2pts Top 40 +175 Fanduel/MGM

Andrew Putnam
0.5pts WIN +21000 Fanduel
0.5pts Top 10 +1100 Draftkings/Fanduel
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 Fanduel
And
2pts Top 40 +190 Draftkings/Fanduel

Your RBC Heritage Picks DFS Core: Kuchar, Henley, Kirk

Thank you reading our 2023 RBC Heritage picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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2023 Masters Picks: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Augusta National Golf Club. Few places on earth evoke the same emotion from even the most rudimentary golf fan. Perhaps for you it is the legacy of the greats having won here. Perhaps it is the iconic Masters theme song. Or perhaps it is the stash of pimento cheese sandwich ingredients stocking your fridge, still costing just $1.50 on course, ready for the greatest weekend in golf (recipe here). Either way, we all know that this week is special in not only the world of golf, but for sport in general. And having successfully tipped 4 of the last 7 Masters (Willett, Garcia, Woods, and Matsuyama), hopefully our 2023 Masters Picks are special too.

It truly was a spectacular March where we bagged Kurt Kitayama at 60/1 after round 1, Taylor Moore at 70/1, and Nick Bachem at 100/1. That stunning run has elevated our profit further for the year to +13% on the DP World Tour, a whopping +59% on the PGA Tour, and +41% overall. That truly puts these selections within the top echelon of golf analysts. Long may that run continue.

Course Analysis

The first starting point for our 2023 Masters picks at Augusta National should perhaps simply state that the course is long. Very long. Ranking in the top 5 of the regular tournament stops for course length, this fact continues to go missed. This is possibly due to the few golfers who have managed to buck the trend, perhaps most notably with Zach Johnson.

This, however, is not the norm. Driving distance is a huge asset to have in your arsenal here. It should form a base for your 2023 Masters picks. The par 5 13th has been lengthened by 35 yards, ensuring that we will see many more players choosing to lay up rather than risking a trip into Rae’s Creek. Even then, Rory McIlroy described hitting a perfect drive and being left with a 5 iron for his second shot with the ball 20 inches above his feet. A daunting shot for even the most calm of heads, and surely further enhanced if in contention come Sunday.

Adding to this is that the fairway grass at Augusta is traditionally mown towards the tee, limiting run out. And, with wet weather forecast for this year’s tournament, this will see even less carry compared to previous iterations. Fortunately, the fairways are reasonably wide with less penal rough than seen on other courses.

What is at a premium for our 2023 Masters picks is iron play, with McIlroy describing this as trying to hit a corridor of just 5-10 yards in some instances or you will be off the green. Shot-shaping remains key and, famously, a draw is required on a number of holes to really take advantage of the topography.

Course Comps for our 2023 Masters Picks

Firstly, it should be noted that the best comp course for The Masters is actually simply itself. Augusta National has the “stickiest” course history of any regular course on the schedule. This is tempered (only somewhat) by the fact that this is a smaller field and often features many of the same names year on year. However, there are absolutely intricacies to this place which make it a unique test.

Good guides for The Masters can be found at Riviera Country Club, the Plantation Course at Kapalua, Liberty National, Muirfield Village, and the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook. All are less penal off the tee, demand long driving distance, and ball striking is at a premium.

The other notable guide has been the Dubai Desert Classic. Both Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia won the Dubai Desert Classic the year they won The Masters. The form lines go further than this, with multiple top finishes translating to success at The Masters.

Weather for our 2023 Masters Picks

Augusta loves to throw up a curly weather forecast in the lead to The Masters. This year has proven no exception, providing possibly the most challenging forecast to wrap our head around. Thunderstorms were originally forecast all four days. The threat of this Thursday has dissipated somewhat, with conditions to improve as the day goes on. Calmest winds are forecast for the evening.

Friday the chance of thunderstorms remains. Friday AM should provide the lowest winds all week. Rain should arrive in the late afternoon. This will sometimes be heavy. Winds should also rise substantially in the afternoon. However, Saturday could possibly be the absolute worst of it. Very heavy rains is forecast, which would see significant delay of play. Comparatively, Sunday looks at least drier and slightly less windy.

My lean, after much analysis, is that a Thursday PM/Friday AM start looks to shape best this year. This comes with it’s own risks. Any thunderstorms or delays in play early could completely flip this edge. However, I feel somewhat confident that some form of edge will develop and that it is most likely to be for the Thursday PM tee time groupings.

All up, this equates to a scenario where I can at least say this. Should the forecast remain as is, we will be looking at our first Monday finish for The Masters since 1983.

2023 Masters Picks

Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking

Rory McIlroy – Your 2023 Masters Picks Favourite
5pts WIN +750 Draftkings
5pts Top 5 +165 Draftkings
or 5pts E/W +700 (Multiple, with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Jason Day
2pts WIN +2800 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +210 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +2500 (Multiple, with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tony Finau
FUTURE 1pt E/W +5000 (Bet365, with 5 places 1/4 odds)
2pts Top 10 +210 Bet365 or +200 MGM

Min Woo Lee – Your 2023 Masters Picks Best Value
FUTURE 1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365, with 5 places 1/4 odds) or +15000 WIN Draftkings
2pts Top 20 +200 Draftkings

Ryan Fox
0.5pts WIN +20000 Draftkings/MGM
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +22500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 30 +220 Bet365 or +165 Draftkings

Taylor Moore
0.5pts WIN +23000 Fanduel
0.5pts Top 10 +1100 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365, with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 30 +175 Draftkings

Player Profiles

Rory McIlroy – Your 2023 Master Picks Favourite

Will this be the year? So often with regard to McIlroy, that is the question that crosses the lips of every golf fan entering The Masters. As subscribers of WinDaily will know, it is extremely rare for me to go to the top of the board in my selections. In this case, I believe it is warranted.

McIlroy stuck a calm and composed figure in the press conference this year. He oozed confidence, even admitting he has realized he This was in stark contrast to last year, where he was nervous and somewhat irritable. Perhaps, this may have been due to the cloud of LIV Golf appearing on the horizon. Ironically, he would finish 2nd carding a record equaling 64 on Sunday in what may in retrospect become his breakthrough moment.

Rory has spent extended time at Augusta National this year. He has already completed more than 81 holes in the last two weeks. With a new driver and putter in the bag, both have yielded immediate results for him. The driver of particular is of note. That is the cornerstone of Rory’s game. Finding comfort off the tee, with his prodigious driving distance, will be key to his success.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FG4c_QGn66o&t=167s

Rory and LIV Golf

I also noted that Rory played 9 holes with Brooks Koepka. My speculation would be that he simply wishes to leave no stone unturned in his preparations. Part of that involved putting himself in close proximity playing with a LIV golfer.

The fact is, performance at this year’s Masters is essential for the LIV Golf pros. For a tour struggling for relevance, this almost feels like the last chance saloon for them. Greg Norman has already thrown fuel on the fire by suggesting the LIV golfers would storm the 18th green if one of them won. As the face of the PGA Tour throughout this period, without doubt Rory will be doing everything in his power to stop that happening.

Conversely, this may benefit Rory as he headlines our 2023 Masters picks. We saw what he did at the Canadian Open after some inflammatory comments from Norman. The fact that his performance could become bigger than him and instead become a narrative about the entire future of the professional game of golf is, in my opinion, a good thing.

Finally, it was aforementioned that both Willett and Garcia won the Dubai Desert Classic the year they won The Masters. The 2023 Dubai Desert Classic champion? Rory McIlroy. His 3rd win at that event.

Jason Day

Experiencing a sharp return to form towards the backend of 2022, Jason Day is back! The resurgence has since resulted in a run of 6 consecutive top 20 finishes and a quarterfinal run at the WGC Matchplay before just falling short to one Scottie Scheffler.

It seems somewhat unbelievable that Day holds just one major given his prior high-flying status. His record at the Masters is decent, holding a 2nd on debut in 2011 alongside a 3rd, 10th, and a number of top 30 finishes. Missed cuts in 2020 and 2021 can be discounted given the abysmal state of his game in those years.

Day possess the credentials and the all round game to compete here. His excellent short game will be an asset in any torrid weather conditions that come his way. Over the last 6 months, he ranks inside the top 20 in every singles strokes gained metric including. Notably, he is also sitting 3rd for SG Total over the last 3 months in this field. I also love his putting stats on the pure bentgrass greens of Muirfield. He makes a compelling case for me, in what would be an emotional victory solidifying his return to the top echelons of the game.

Tony Finau

Finau already boasts a promising Masters resume, with no missed cuts for finishes of 10-5-38-10-35. He firmly put to bed the biggest concern of his game over the last 18 months: winning. 4 wins over that period saw him surge to the forefront of everyone’s minds. It does, however, seem he is going missed a little this week.

Since November, Finau has not finished outside the top 25 on tour. The majority of these have also included the top fields in the newly formed elevated events. Included in that run is a 7th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, which is highly correlated to Augusta National with it’s undulating fairways resulting in many approach shots with the ball either above or below the player’s feet.

Finau rates out as 4th in SG: APP, 8th SG: T2G, and 5th SG: Total in this field over the last 6 months. Those numbers only improve when looking at a 3 month window. A breakthrough Masters victory would come at no surprise, for a golfer we advised WinDaily to back here in July 2022. I still like him at the odds on offer now, given the continued improvement in his game.

Min Woo Lee – Your 2023 Masters Picks Best Value

The talented 24 year old Australian has long been ear-marked in my books as a potential major winner. In fact, his sister Minjee Lee has already done the job twice in majors on the LPGA. Min Woo Lee boasts prodigious distance off the tee, a key focus for me in my selections this week. He is one of my biggest movers this week given this and his weighted approach numbers to suit Augusta National.

He saw this on display in his Masters debut, where he finished 14th. That result was perhaps even better than it first looks, given he shot a 40 back 9 on Sunday to drop 4 shots coming home. I can easily forgive this for a young talented golfer suddenly finding himself firmly in the top 10 of the Masters. He has since backed this performance up with finishes of 21st and 27th at The Open and the US Open respectively. A recent 6th at The Players Championship again reaffirmed that Min Woo can produce his best at these high profile events. A second up win at big odds could shock many but the most astute pundits.

Ryan Fox

Patriotism aside, Ryan Fox profiles as one of the best outsiders at this tournament for our 2023 Masters picks. I’ll admit I was very drawn to Thomas Pieters in this spot, with Foxy just gaining the edge given the perceived tee time advantage.

Fox boasts huge distance off the tee, sitting 6th in this field over the last 2 years for driving distance. What he has found over the last year is a tangible improvement in his approach play, alongside gains around the greens and putting. 2022 saw Ryan Fox claim two victories, including the prestigious Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in a stacked field.

I do note it is his Masters debut. We have weighted the expectations accordingly. However, he profiles extremely well given his raw power combined with the long iron approach play and deft touch around the greens. A rare and dangerous combination for a player with such driving distance.

Taylor Moore

Finally, we wrap up our 2023 Masters picks with a speculative play on the talented Taylor Moore. Moore punched his ticket for the Masters with a win at the Valspar Championship. As mentioned, Copperhead may very well be a decent course comp to here. Patrick Reed was 2nd there before winning the Masters. Spieth won both in 2015 (although, he also just won a lot in general that year). Charl Schwartzel has also completed the double. He understandably has foregone a start at the Valero Texas Open to prepare for this event after the Valspar win.

Over the last 3 months Moore sits 16th for SG: Total, 13th for SG: OTT, and 15th for SG: PUTT. I love the fact he earns his strokes off the tee not just with his driving distance (27th in this field), but also by being highly accurate. A confident driver of the ball is always a great start at Augusta.

Basically, this is far too much value on this price. With fair odds sitting more in the 150-170 mark, weighting for margin of error, we can be delighted with the price being put out for him here.

Thank you reading our 2023 Masters picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Valero Texas Open Picks: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Having already scored 60/1 and 70/1 wins in March, it was another huge winner at 110/1 to round out an amazing month for our selections. It bears noting that not only is our recent form red hot, but we tipped J.J. Spaun at 150/1 here in 2022 to frame this year’s Valero Texas Open picks.

Nick Bachem’s monumental rise saw him win in just his 12th start on the DP World Tour. We had taken Bachem the week prior at 250/1, where he duly finished in the top 20. Arriving at a course that rewarded long-driving and was perhaps even better suited, it was a no brainer to remain with him the following week. He rewarded that loyalty richly. We also scored top place finishes on Alejandro del Rey Top 20 and James Hart du Preez Top 40.

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1639969669456035843?s=20

It was a consecutive runner-up for us at the WGC Matchplay. Having tipped Kevin Kisner at 50/1 in 2022, Cam Young at 33/1 was arguably the form golfer of the tournament. We also had Kuchar advancing from his group at +350. We picked 4/5 and 6/7 matches correctly on day 2 and day 3 respectively. It was great to see so many winnings tickets in the WinDaily Discord.

Finally, Corales Puntacana Championship saw us score place payouts with Thomas Detry and Ben Martin both in 8th. Detry particularly was disappointing, having been one shot off the lead heading into Sunday before another poor finish in what has become all too familiar a pattern for him. Vincent Norrman scored a Top 20 and Brandon Matthews a Top 40 for us. Ben Martin was the first round leader and we had a top 5 FRL from Max McGreevy at 200/1 for that market. More on him shortly in our Valero Texas Open Picks.

Course Analysis

TPC San Antonio provides a relatively stern test this week, ranking 18th most difficult last year. The course is a fairly standard 7,438 yard par-72. I want to take two notes from this though. Firstly, it does play slightly shorter as firm fairways see drives continue past the carry. And secondly, three of the par 5s are very long at 591 yards, 602 yards, and 604 yards. Obviously, this eats up a fair chunk of that yardage and limit those who can go for those holes in two.

Fairways are thin with an average of 27 yards width at 325 yards, compared to say Bay Hill at 39 yards wide. Although regarded as a desert course, fairways are tree-lined with surrounding waste area. Certainly, the rough is not overly punishing if you just stray from the fairway. In fact, the rough ranks as the least penal on the PGA Tour. This is both due to length of just 2.25in and the fact many of these shots are with wedge in hand. However, anything which is very wide is liable to find the desert areas and significant trouble with the chance of multiple dropped shots.

Greens are multi-tiered and grass is Bermuda overseeded with perennial ryegrass (same grass as seen at the WGC Matchplay, Valspar Championship, and The Players Championship). Notably, although the greens are relatively large the fact that there are many multi-tiered greens means the actual target is substantially reduced. Approach play is essential to insure you end up on the correct tier, with an emphasis on putting and short game imperative. This is especially true given the heavy bunkering on course.

https://tpc.com/sanantonio/wp-content/uploads/sites/36/2021/02/Pre-1st-The-Oaks-Course-Drone.mp4

Comp Courses Guiding our Valero Texas Open Picks

Although not a comp course, it is worth noting Texas connections in this tournament. Notably, Texans or those with strong Texas ties have often stepped up here. The Texas Open is the PGA Tour’s 3rd oldest tournament and has been running for a century. It has real heritage and it means more to those with links to the state. Prior Texan winners include Spieth and Landry, while both Steven Bowditch and Jimmy Walker had lived in the state for years prior to their wins in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

TPC Summerlin is a good guide as another desert course that plays shorter than it’s length due to altitude, offers similar fairway widths with penalty for straying excessively wide, and undulating greens. TPC Scottsdale likewise and for similar reasons.

The American Express (and it’s compilation of desert courses) provide perhaps the best correlating guide. Andrew Landry held a win and 2nd at The American Express prior to his Texas Open victory. Other winners continue the story. Kevin Chappell has a 6th and an 8th there (also holds a 3rd and 4th in Texas), Brendan Steele a 2nd and a 6th, Zach Johnson a 3rd and 8th and Hoffman a 2nd and a 9th. El Cameleon also has some noteworthy links. Charley Hoffman has won at both, with John Huh and Matt Kuchar adding further ties.

Weather

It does look like weather will play a factor in some form or another for our Valero Texas Open picks. Particularly, the often windy state looks set to provide as such over the first two days of play.

The area has been in a period of drought for 3 years and been under water restrictions for more than a year. Some much needed relief to the ground will come over night on Thursday. With the ground being so dry, I expect any easing in the firm conditions will be unlikely to last until the afternoon. Thursday AM provides the calmest conditions across the first two days. Winds will increase throughout the day with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Conversely, Friday AM provides the windiest conditions of the two days. Gust are set to peak over 30 mph, before easing as the afternoon goes on.

Whenever there are thunderstorms in the forecast, this does present some risk that the weather may flip. This is tempered in this case. Even if the Thursday PM thunderstorms do arrive and delay play, this would only force the players back out in windier conditions Friday AM and then require them to go right back out into those same winds. This is a decent edge to Thursday AM/Friday PM which we currently estimate will finish in a 0.8-1.2 strokes average edge.

2023 Valero Texas Open Picks

Golf Betting Tips

Chris Kirk
Brendon Todd
Andrew Putnam
Beau Hossler
Nick Hardy
Doug Ghim
Kevin Chappell
Max McGreevy

Suggested Staking

Chris Kirk – Your Valero Texas Open Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +2800 Fanduel/Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +320 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +2800 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Brendon Todd
2.5pts WIN +4600 Fanduel
2.5pts Top 10 +500 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Andrew Putnam
2.5pts WIN +5500 Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +550 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2.5pts WIN +6600 MGM
2.5pts Top 10 +600 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Nick Hardy
1pt WIN +8000 MGM
1pt Top 10 +650 Fanduel/Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +360 Fanduel or +375 Bet365

Doug Ghim
1pt WIN +21000 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +1300 Fanduel
or 1pt E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +500 Draftkings or Bet365

Kevin Chappell – Your Valero Texas Open Picks Best Value
0.5pts WIN +20000 Draftkings
0.5pts TOP 10 +1400 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 Fanduel/Draftkings or +650 Bet365
And
2pts Top 40 +195 Fanduel or +210 Bet365

Max McGreevy
0.5pts WIN +150000 Draftkings
0.5pts TOP 10 +8000 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +2500 Draftkings or +2000 William Hill
And
2pts Top 40 +550 Fanduel or Bet365

Thank you reading our 2023 WGC Matchplay picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Corales Puntacana Championship Picks and Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

If your WGC Matchplay bracket is already looking on shaky ground after Day 1, what better excuse to indulge than a deep dive into the alternative event this week! We just had our 2nd big winner in March, with both Moore and Kitayama collecting at huge prices. Let’s bag another one with our Corales Puntacana Championship picks.

Course Analysis & Weather

Corales Puntaca Championship picks played at the stunning Corales Golf Club

If you do have the opportunity to find TV coverage for this event, I highly recommend a watch. Undeniably, the Corales Golf Course in Punta Cana is a stunning host. As these holes snake their way hugging close to the cliffs and Atlantic Ocean, you would be forgiven for thinking driving accuracy is imperative here. The metrics tell a different story for our Corales Puntacana Championship picks.

Although a big miss on the wrong side of the hole will result in large penalties, this can usually be avoided. The rough is a benign 2 inches and rather sparse, providing little penalty when found. Obviously, at a 7,670 yard par-72 having a modicum of driving distance is an asset. However, this is further emphasised by the largely disproportionate number of approach shots coming in at over 200 yards. Driving distance and approach over 200+ yards play a key role in our Corales Puntacana Championship picks.

Greens are paspalum grass. Certainly, this sturdy oceanside grass is particular but generally quite slow. Putting will be imperative in what often turns into a birdie fest, although offset slight by the ease of these surfaces. Putting is weighted heavier than usual for our Corales Puntacana Championship picks model.

The wind is the main defense for this course. Moderate winds are forecast all week and should play some role. There, however, appears no weather edge with winds consistent all day Thursday and Friday.

You can find the latest weather forecast here.

Comp Courses for our Corales Puntacana Championship Picks

Although course history appears less correlated here than on other courses, I do want to read that in some context. Obviously, being a alternative event in the majority of years, the field for this event is rather transient. Consequently, it includes up and coming stars advancing from the Korn Ferry Tour to the other end of the spectrum, with older golfers in the twilights of their careers. Generally, those playing this event are either on their way up or down the PGA Tour rankings. This bears some consideration when making your Corales Puntacana Championship picks.

Other tropical and island courses have strong links here. Generally, this involves a combination of the resort style nature, exposed windy courses, and the unique paspalum greens. Significantly, Puerto Rico Open has numerous form lines and is likely the strongest guide. Vidanata Vallarta, host of the Mexico Open, provides another long driver friendly resort style course with many similarities. Further, I considered the Bermuda Championship in my analysis.

I do believe some of the Korn Ferry Tour courses will get missed by most pundits this week when making their Corales Puntacana Championship picks. It is worthy going back the last couple of years and consider golfers who have played well at these types of tracks at the same time of year. This includes the Bahamas Great Exuma Classic and Abaco Classic, the Panama Championship, and the Astara Golf Championship.

Corales Puntacana Championship Picks for Golf Betting

Suggested Staking

Thomas Detry – Your Corales Puntacana Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +2200 Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +330 Fanduel/Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Ben Martin
2.5pts WIN +3000 Fanduel
2.5pts Top 10 +320 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +3000 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chesson Hadley – Your Corales Puntacana Championship Picks Best Value
2pts WIN +6600 MGM
2pts Top 10 +550 Fanduel/Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +6600 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Vincent Norrman
1pt WIN +9500 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +7000 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 Draftkings

Augusto Nunez
1pt WIN +6600 MGM
1pt Top 10 +600 Fanduel
or 1pt E/W +9000 Unibet (with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +250 Bet365/+240 Draftkings

Trevor Werbylo – Your Corales Puntacana Championship Picks Favourite Longshot
1pt WIN +15000 MGM
1pt Top 10 +1100 Fanduel
or 1pt E/W +14000 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +490 Fanduel/+500 Bet365

Brandon Matthews
0.5pts WIN +25000 MGM
0.5pts Top 10 +1400 Fanduel
or 0.5pts E/W +25000 Unibet (with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 40 +165 Draftkings/+180 Bet365

Thank you reading our 2023 Corales Puntacana Championship picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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WGC Matchplay Picks 2023: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Another MASSIVE winner in Taylor Moore (+7000) for us last week at the Valspar Championship. As well as Wyndham Clark finishing 5th in our selections and the Kitayama win recently, that takes our PGA Tour return on investment to a mind-blowing +87% and up over +250 units. Of course, it is perhaps a tad unrealistic to expect that rate to continue for the remainder of the year. However, as typically we recommend about 25 units of spend, we now have a runway of over 10 weeks where we could lose every single bet and still be in profit. It all emphatically serves as a great indication for our WGC Matchplay picks.

Undoubtedly, it is a travesty that this event is even proposed to be cut by the PGA Tour. The WGC Matchplay offers one of perhaps just a half-dozen instances a year where we experience a different format. Yes, certainly matchplay is volatile. No, you won’t get all of the studs playing all the matches. Sure, the last day can leave some dead air with only two matches on the course.

Surely solving this should not be difficult. “The Match” has been a huge and well-watched event. Why not simply schedule 8 celebrities play the final two days? Seed the 8 celebrities based on their handicaps and have them play the Top 8 Saturday, with final 4 and consolation matches on the Sunday. You would draw additional audience and attention, as well as making winning “The Match” actually mean something. You’re welcome. Rant over, and onto our WGC Matchplay picks.

Course Analysis & Comp Courses

Austin Country Club has been the host of this event since 2016. This unique Pete Dye design course has some nuances, as often seen in his shaping. This somewhat explains the course specialist element we see recurring here. Perhaps it is more likely that Kevin Kisner is, in fact, not a matchplay specialist, but actually just very suited to this type of track.

In reality, Kisner plays a pretty key form line to other comp courses. Certainly, heavy correlation can be found between Austin and Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, and TPC River Highlands. All are positional courses, where accuracy reigns supreme over driving distance, and are key guides for our WGC Matchplay picks.

In addition to driving accuracy, putting should play a large part to success this week. Certainly, there will be opportunities in any matchplay tournament where you can make a long birdie putt to put pressure on your opponent. And, concurrently, the player who manages to make the 8 foot putt to square a hole can gain momentum. Moreover, approach play will be imperative. That can add additional to that pressure on your opponent.

Finally, I would caution on simply ruling out a player from your WGC Matchplay picks solely based on their prior history here. However, this is a volatile event. On average, you will see just 5 out of 16 top seeds emerge from their respective pools. It is worthy diving into some of those results deeper before ruling out a playing entirely.

For the latest weather, you can check here.

Optimal WGC Matchplay Picks for DFS & Brackets

Although this article primarily focuses on analysis and golf betting selections, I will add a note here on DFS strategy. This is one of the best weeks to play DFS. The reason is that a large percentage of brackets will be ruled out immediately before a ball has even been struck.

The below selections should NOT be built in a single DFS lineup. The optimal strategy is to have your four players reach the final four, with the other two selections having made it to the Top 8 before losing to another of your picks.

This can be summarized in three rules:

Have a clear path to the final 4 for 4 picks. I.e. at least one golfer in each quarter of the bracket.
Do not select two golfers from the same group.
Do not select two golfers from adjacent groups.

You can find (and play!) in the WinDaily Sports Bracket Challenge here. The code is winbig.

Significantly, I have already seen quite a few lineups out there that are not optimal and are dead on arrival. Obviously, do not let your lineups become the rake for everyone else! Given that, if you need help please feel free to send me your lineup in the WinDaily Discord here. I’ll be happy to check the lineup is optimal for you.

WGC Matchplay Picks & Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Jon Rahm
2.5pts WIN +1100 Draftkings/MGM
2.5pts Top 4 +300 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +1100 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)

Patrick Cantlay – Your WGC Matchplay Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +2200
2.5pts Top 4 +500 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +2200 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)

Jordan Spieth
2pts Win +2500 Draftkings/MGM
2pts Top 4 +650 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +2200 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)

Cameron Young
2pts Win +3300 MGM
2pts Top 4 +650
or 2pts E/W +3300 Unibet (with 4 places 1/4 odds)

Keegan Bradley
1pt Win +7000 Draftkings
1pt Top 4 +1600 Draftkings
or 2pt E/W +6600 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)
And
2pts Win Group +300 MGM

Matt Kuchar
0.5pts Win +9000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 4 +1800
or 0.5pts E/W +9000 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pts Win Group +350 MGM

Victor Perez – Your WGC Matchplay Picks Best Value
0.5pts Win +13000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 4 +2500 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 8 +1100 Unibet
And
2pts Win Group +450 Fanduel

Thank you reading our 2023 WGC Matchplay picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Valspar Championship Picks: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Scottie Scheffler added to the legacy that is The Players Championship, as he romped to what ended up being a relatively simple 5 shot victory. Scheffler was easily our favourite player at the top of the board, but hard to justify as positive value at just 11/1 on a volatile course. Perhaps the scariest fact is that he was negative putting for the week until draining a long putt on the 18th. Thankfully, we don’t need to deal with the Big Three for our Valspar Championship picks this week.

For DFS purposes, we did have Scheffler alongside Hovland and Hoge as our core. Hoge was excellent value, priced at 140/1 in odds markets and $7,300 in DFS with just 3% ownership. Obviously, those three players finished in 3 of the top 4 spots. Hoge cashed us a full place payout with 1 unit at +2500 and 3 units +400 for a Top 20. We also score a Top 20 on Russell Henley with 3 units at +360. On the DP World Tour, Julien Brun finished 7th without really threatening the win. We score a full play payout on him with 2.5 units at +500. Let’s look for the winner this week in our Valspar Championship picks!

Course Analysis & Course Comps

Narrow, tree-lined fairways greet the players this week for our Valspar Championship picks — Narrow, tree-lined fairways greet the players this week

Innisbrook Golf Resort plays host this week, specifically the Copperhead Course. As we look to our Valspar Championship picks, it is worthy to note this is rarely a birdie fest. Winnings scores should reach low teens at best. There is even a chance that something in the -10 to -15 range may be good enough this week, with course changes and the weather (more on this shortly).

This tricky, narrow setup requires accuracy over distance off the tee. Finding the fairway is imperative and you will see players clubbing down often for their tee shots. The course is a long 7,340 yard par 71 with a unique five par 3 setup. This leads to a disproportionate number of iron shots occurring 175 yards or longer. Further, all five par 3s are 195 yards or longer.

In regards to the course changes, the rough has moved from 72″ to 21″. It has also been allowed to grow out to 3.75in, up from 3in last year. When you get very thick rough right up to the green, this limits the creativity and shot selections available to the player. Therefore, I suspect this will take some of the skill out of the chipping and add a bit of luck/volatility to the short game. It is worth noting this change.

Surprisingly, the majority of models I have seen this week are still hammering SG: ATG as if this change has not occurred. Chipping will absolutely form a part of the week. Certainly, the greens are medium to small in size, firm, and with high winds they will be hard to find from long distance. However, I simply don’t think SG: ATG should play the large emphasis some are suggesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Y8GjlcTmXA&t=1s

Course Comps Used for our Valspar Championship picks

Do note that Innisbrook has offered a low correlation between prior form and future success. I believe the reasons for this are two-fold. One, the tight fairways and thick rough add an element of volatility to the course. And, secondly, the top players usually avoid this tournament meaning some less consistent results may be expected.

In order of weighting and level of correlation, the following courses formed our guidance this week: Muirfield, TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, Concession, PGA National, TPC Sawgrass.

Weather

A decent weather edge has developed as the tournament has approached.

Thursday afternoon looks to have the lowest winds of the day. Further, adding to this edge is a very windy Friday. Friday winds peak in the afternoon at 15-18mph with gusts reaching up to 30mph. This leads to an advantage on both of the first two days for the players starting Thursday PM/Friday AM. Currently, we are projecting this edge to be a substantial 0.75-1.00 strokes on average.

Also, an important note for Saturday and Sunday is there may be thunderstorms in the area. It is a distinct possibility that any substantial delays would result in a loss of a days play.

In this instance, it is unlikely the PGA Tour will extend the finish to Monday due to the early start Wednesday next week with the WGC Matchplay. I will be paying close attention to the weather and advise accordingly. If it appears a 54 hole tournament is a possibility, some in-play opportunities may develop where some outsiders close to the lead manage to hold on due to the truncated tournament.

Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord here for the latest live updates.

You can find the latest weather forecasts here.

Valspar Championship Picks & Golf Betting Tips – Final Card

Suggested Staking – 25 points staked

Justin Rose – Your Valspar Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +2200 Fanduel/MGM
2.5pts Top 5 +490 Fanduel
or
2.5pts E/W +2500 Bet365 (with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Wyndham Clark
2.5pts +4000 Fanduel
2.5pts Top 10 +360 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +3500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Taylor Moore
2pts +7000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +650 Fanduel
or 2pts E/W +7000 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tyler Duncan – Your Valspar Championship Picks Best Value
1pt WIN +7000 Draftkings/MGM
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +7500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Mark Hubbard
0.5pts WIN +13000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 10 +1000 Fanduel/Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +12500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20

Kevin Roy
0.5pt WIN +38000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +3000 Draftkings
or 0.5pt E/W +40000 William Hill (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1100 Fanduel/Draftkings
And
2pts Top 40 +300 Draftkings/ +400 Bet365

DFS Core: Justin Rose, Wyndham Clark, Tyler Duncan.

Player Profiles

Favourites Analysis

We have been rather spoiled of late with the elevated event schedules coming into full force. I don’t think this can be argued to be a “weak” field. Certainly, there will be other tournaments this year which carry far less class than we find here. However, with the absence of the usual studs of Rahm, Scheffler, and McIlroy at the top of the board, it makes an interesting situation where all the players at the top of the board carry some concerns.

Questions have to be asked of the poor short game for Justin Thomas over the last 6 months, coupled with a regression in his usual elite iron play. Spieth is a shade better, having found some better irons in 3 of his last 4 starts. His driving accuracy remains a slight concern for me here. Sam Burns goes for the three-peat here but has looked nothing like the golfer he was when he achieved those back-to-back victories. All three end up on the wrong side of the predicted weather edge. Fitzpatrick gets the better side of it, but has been heavily backed in after Ben Coley tipped him and still carries some injury concerns.

Realistically, this then leaves with Hadwin, Fleetwood, and Rose. Hadwin is on the wrong side of the draw and hasn’t won a tournament since 2017. Fleetwood’s only victories since 2018 have both come at the Nedbank Challenge (November 2019 and 2022). I do think Fleetwood profiles well for here and has shown better form of late. However, both of those victories came in lower standard DP World Tour tournaments with a reduced field of 66 and 63 players.

Justin Rose – Your Valspar Championship Picks Favourite

As such, we are left with Justin Rose. Arriving here after another strong finish of 6th at The Players Championship, Rose was a recent winner in February at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. That windy, narrow test with small greens is certainly not the worst consideration towards the style of play required for success this week. His approach play is vastly improved in his last 5 starts and he also gained on driving accuracy quite significantly to the field last week. He also is one of the few top players that get the perceived right side of the weather draw. Justin Rose sits 18th for Par 3 scoring on the PGA Tour for the 2022-2023 season and should benefit from this unusual scorecard setup.

Finally, the correlating course form is excellent. Included in this is a course history including 9 top 30s (with 3 Top 10s) in 11 appearances. The two other tournaments were missed cuts, but came when losing -1.99 and -2.55 strokes putting per round having gained all other appearances here. Justin Rose owns a house in Florida and is familiar with these bermuda grass surfaces. This all indicates that this is a track that really suits his overall game and style of play, all for a golfer in excellent form.

Wyndham Clark

In our 2022 season review and 2023 season preview episode, I mentioned Wyndham Clark as one of three players that I expected would have a big year. His recent form has really shown that his maiden PGA Tour victory may be imminent. This has been driven by huge improvement in his approach play, previously the weakness in his game. Such has been the growth, that Clark now rates as 4th in this field for SG: APP in the last 3 months. Notably, last week’s performance saw him gain on the field for driving accuracy suggesting a comfort in clubbing down off the tee. Typically excellent around the greens and putting, long off the tee, and with his irons having shown eye-catching improvement this seems an opportunity primed for breakout.

Having only mildly lost strokes putting here on his three previous appearances, I’m heartened by the fact he has gained substantially on the Florida greens in all appearances at both the Honda Classic and The Players. Last week’s 27th place finish at The Players marks 10 made cuts in a row, with 9 of those finishes 37th or better and 4 in the top 16.

Data Golf currently rank Wyndham Clark as the 33rd best player in the world, just behind Justin Rose in 31st. His Official World Golf Ranking of 109th suggests this is a situation ripe for imminent correction. Considering the recent run of elevated events, it all bodes well for Wyndham Clark in this field.

Taylor Moore

Taylor Moore rated as the best value in my first look for our Valspar Championship picks. Unfortunately, he ending up on the wrong side of the draw and this did move him down the board slightly in my models. However, he still presents decent value if he can fade the weather draw.

Taylor Moore qualified for the PGA Tour after finishing an impressive 4th on the Korn Ferry Tour ahead of the likes of Taylor Pendrith and Davis Riley. A rookie season was quietly solid, qualifying for the Fed Ex Cup playoffs and making it through to the BMW Championship.

He has now started 2023 with real intent. Of all players on the PGA Tour since 1st January with more than 50 recorded approach shots over 200+ yards, Moore ranks 3rd. He has gained +2.68 strokes on approach in 3 of his last 5 starts. Accurate off the tee whilst maintaining distance is an advantage here, as are his putting statistics with missed greens an inevitably for all players. Beside the 35th at the “5th major” last week, he also recently finished 14th at the WM Phoenix Open in another elevated event. It all profiles well for this drop in grade.

Tyler Duncan – Your Valspar Championship Picks Best Value

Surpassing Moore for best value in my model this week was Tyler Duncan. Duncan profiles really nicely for this course, benefits from the weather draw, and is moving into decent form. Duncan has now gained or been at field average for approach in his last four tournaments. He ranks 10th in this field for SG: Total and 15th for SG: T2G over those four events. Notably, he also ranks as number 1 for driving accuracy gaining a massive 15.3% on the field.

The 54th finish last week at The Players should be read a bit more kindly than it first appears on paper. In consideration should be taken in the context of the strength of field alongside a final round losing a 2nd worst -3.36 strokes putting. Had he even putted at field average in the final round, he would have finished a very respectable 27th. That is easily forgivable for me in a first real appearance of note in a huge event like The Players.

Duncan has finished 25th and 39th in his last two appearances here whilst gaining putting. Two missed cuts preceded this, but came when losing with the putter and in pretty dreadful incoming form. However, he has gained on approach here in all 4 starts. The 3rd at the Honda Classic two starts ago is a great pointer to success. He gained +1.53 putting per round to sit 6th for SG: PUTT that week on similar greens, having also gained significantly at that tournament previously. If he can bring that putter through to this week, he could be a real dark horse come Sunday.

Mark Hubbard

Following a career best year in 2022 on the PGA Tour, Hubbard holds some great upside for me this week. Notably, the main difference to last year thus far has been a pretty horrific start to the year putting. Long run data suggests this is actually a strength to his game typically, and encouragingly he gained +1.15 strokes putting here last year. With putting one of the most volatile statistics, it can also be the quickest to return.

As well as gaining strokes putting last week when 35th at The Players, Hubbard gained across the board last week. He has gained for driving accuracy in 7 straight tournaments and his approach play has improved lately as well. This all suggests his ball striking is in fine shape. Hubbard actually sits 9th of all players on the PGA Tour since 1st January with more than 40 recorded approach shots over 200+ yards. Driving accuracy, improved ball striking, and long irons all leads to a picture that should fit here.

Kevin Roy

Finally, I can’t resist a speculative play on Kevin Roy at overly inflated odds. Kevin Roy is in a rich vein of ball-striking form, sitting 3rd in this field for SG: APP over the last 3 months. A lot of these approach gains have come at 150 yards or more. Particularly, he sits 4th on the PGA Tour in 2023 with more than 25 recorded approach shots over 200+ yards. Perhaps even more eye-popping is that he is 11th in this field for SG: T2G over the last 3 months. He has also gained significantly on the field for driving accuracy in his last two starts, suggesting the excellent ball striking should continue here.

Also of note is that Roy is somewhat of a local. He moved to Tampa Bay straight after college and has been based in the area ever since. You have to imagine he has played this course a number of times and will experience some comfort of that local knowledge, as well as staying at his own home each night. A lot will come down to whether he can find his putter here. However, having gained putting in 5 of his last 8 starts that is certainly with the risk for me at such a huge price.

Thank you reading our 2023 Valspar Championship picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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The Players Picks 2023: All you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The Players Picks 2023 include some value longshots this week

The Players Championship. The 5th Major. The PGA Tour’s flagship event. Call it what you will, it is known by both the PGA professionals and fans alike that this tournament matters a little more than most. Perhaps due to the list of winners, perhaps due to the iconic TPC Sawgrass course, and perhaps due to the dramatic finishes we have come to know and love from this event. Those dramatic finishes and volatility that comes here help guide our Players picks this year.

It what was another great week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where we scored a huge hit with winning ticket on Kurt Kitayama at +6000. We added Kitayama live in-play in the WinDaily Discord. His overall metrics were good. The telling factor was, having followed his game closely since 2018, that Kitayama has massive boom or bust potential. When he gets in contention, he doesn’t shy away from competition and tends to stick around despite the names surrounding him. We saw this when 2nd to Rahm at the Mexico Open, 2nd to McIlroy at the CJ Cup, and 2nd to Schauffele at the Scottish Open. Where others shy away, Kitayama has shown he can hang around with the best. We also secured a full place payout on Tyrrell Hatton. He also had his winning chances, as did Schauffele who faded over the weekend.

Finally, before we get into our Players picks, in the alternate event we had 6/6 make the cut at the Puerto Rico Open with 5/6 ending up 33rd or better. 80/1 shot John VanDerLaan the brightest of those to finish 7th cashing both Top 10 and Top 20 tickets. A correct weather prediction in 2022 saw us score big on 225/1 shot Russell Knox securing a full place payout. All promising signs for our Players picks in 2023.

Weather is a factor for your Players picks

Will weather be a factor in 2023 for our Players picks? Last year, we were one of few in the industry to get the weather right. Where all others predicted a Thursday PM/Friday AM, we were contrarian and recommend the opposite. Reasoning was that Thursday PM was likely to face substantial delays due to thunderstorms in the area. This would lead to the perceived weather edge flipping. This indeed happened, and we found ourselves on the right side of a huge weather edge of more than +3 strokes on average.

Although the weather does not appear to be as significant as in 2022, there does seem to be a potential advantage developing. Thursday AM looks to have marginally higher winds than Thursday PM, which are forecast to drop throughout the afternoon. Friday PM winds do look to be increasing on current forecasting models. Gusts Friday PM now look forecast to consistently hit over 30mph.

This will not be the same weather edge we experienced last year. However, it should form part of your process making your Players picks. It should absolutely be used as a tiebreaker if deciding between two specific players. We currently predict the edge to fall around the 0.5-0.75 strokes range given current weather predictions.

Latest weather forecast click here

Key Course Stats and Comp Courses

Course Analysis for our Players Picks

TPC Sawgrass provides a stern test and, perhaps the reason the tournament holds such allure, is that it serves as a great leveler. The key statistic I keep coming back to his driving accuracy. This has been a great predictor of success on this course in years past. It is also worthy noting that the rough has been grown out another full extra inch in 2023. With rough at 3.5in, finding the rough will be even more important this week.

The penalty of rough plays one part and so does the large amount of water in play here. Water features of 17 out of 18 holes. TPC Sawgrass ranks as 7th on tour for most penalty strokes incurred. Missed fairway percentage sits at 13th most on tour. As such, this is one of the most volatile stops on the PGA Tour calendar so do note this when interpreting our Players picks.

Dispersion of approach shots also bears interest. This is the 5th most difficult course for approach shots under 150 yards. Specifically, the 50-125 yard bracket sees a disproportionate number of shots. On the other end of the scale, there are a larger number of shots over 225 yards. This is a combination of going for par 5s in two, but also golfers clubbing down off the tee to gain accuracy and avoid penalties. It is the latter which is why driving distance seems to be an advantage here. For our Players picks, personally would rather delve into the actual meaningful statistics which are the approach metrics from those key distances.

Comp Courses for our Players Picks

Wyndham Championship host Sedgefield Country Club is the key correlated course this week for your Players picks. Si Woo Kim has won at both including an additional 2nd, 3rd, and 5th for good measure. Additionally, Webb Simpson and Henrik Stenson have won at both. This, though, extends to more than tournament winners. Anirban Lahiri followed his 2nd at The Players with 8th at the Wyndham. Then there is Adam Scott who has 5 Top 15s at The Players and a 2nd around Sedgefield. The list goes on ad infinitum.

Other guides are Harbour Town: another Pete Dye designed short, positional course with premium on accuracy and approach. Then, you have the similar TPC tracks to consider. Most notably TPC Potomac along with TPC River Highlands and TPC Twin Cities. The Valspar Championship also shows parallels. It benefits both from similarly requiring accuracy off the tee and rewarding approach, btu also sharing very similar putting surfaces.

The aforementioned volatility shapes my Players picks. The three winners from 2019-2022 (2020 cancelled due to COVID) have been studs: Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy. That could so easily read: Anirban Lahiri, Lee Westwood, and a 50 year old Jim Furyk. There are opportunities to be had here if you can find the right combinations. Hence, the lopsided selections towards value at longer odds this week.

2023 The Players Picks

Suggested Staking

Note several of the below players were provided early in WinDaily Discord to obtain the best odds for our customers. Unfortunately, several of these have now ended up on the wrong side of the developing weather draw. Tee-times are noted accordingly.

Tom Kim (AM/PM)
2pts WIN +4100 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +360 DK
or 2pts E/W +4500 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk (PM/AM) – Our Players Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +8000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +650 Draftkings or +700 Bet365
or 2pts E/W +7500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tom Hoge (PM/AM)
1pt WIN +13000 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +850 Fanduel or +1100 William Hill/Unibet
or 1pt E/W +12500 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 +360 Fanduel or +400 Unibet

Russell Henley (AM/PM)
0.5pt WIN +11000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +750 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 +360 Fanduel

Davis Riley (PM/AM)
0.5pt WIN +18000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +1100 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 +550 Fanduel or +650 Unibet
3pts Top 40 +350 MGM

Webb Simpson (AM/PM) – Our Players Picks Best Value
0.5pt WIN +15000 MGM
0.5pt Top 10 +1000 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +25000 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 30 +250 Fanduel

J.T. Poston (PM/AM)
0.5pt WIN +22000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +1100 MGM
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 William Hill (with 9 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 30 J.T. Poston +240 Fanduel or +300 Bet365

David Lipsky (PM/AM)
0.5pt WIN +45000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +2200 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +40000 William Hill (with 9 places 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 +850 Draftkings
3pts Top 40 +250 Draftkings

Thank you reading our 2023 The Players picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Tom Kim Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks — We are all aboard the Tom Kim train at the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The PGA Tour returns to what almost feels like “regularly scheduled programming” with a third elevated event in just four tournaments. Of course, we should still appreciate that these fields are anything from the norm experienced in previous seasons. 44 of the worlds top 50 golfers will descend on the always tricky Bay Hill Club & Lodge. It is a venue comparable to a US Open setup and with the same caliber field to boot. An interesting backdrop as we dissect the selections for our Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks.

Despite being an “off” week for the stars of the Tour, the Honda Classic provided a highly entertaining tournament. In contrast, the fact that the LIV Golf opening tournament at Mayakoba barely made a blip on the radar is telling. LIV will be shocked their Saturday ratings only hit 0.2 (here), which was some 5 times lower than at the Honda Classic. The simple fact is viewers want not just stars, but a reason and purpose for them to win and not just their paycheck. Undoubtedly, Chris Kirk’s victory in the playoff win over Eric Cole provided all the narratives for the week.

Our 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

We hope our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks are as well received as last year. At this event in 2022, we went agonizingly close with three of our six selections all looking likely title charges. Viktor Hovland (16/1), Gary Woodland (80/1), and Lucas Herbert (200/1) all presented likely winners during the tournament. They eventually finished 2nd, 5th, and 7th respectively. Woodland was actually the most likely, until finding a bunker and a double bogey on the 17th followed by another bogey down the last.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7696AUCkrIo

Gary Woodland reviews a tough finish to his 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational title tilt

That stumble allowed Scottie Scheffler to surprisingly snatch victory. Let’s hope our 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks produce more of the same with some better fortune.

Course Analysis

It is first essential to note that Bay Hill Club & Lodge possesses some of the highest correlation of prior course form to success on the PGA Tour. Only Augusta National and TPC Scottsdale hold a higher correlation. This unique and difficult test does have a few nuances which identify this and should guide our thinking entering our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks.

You will hear a lot on driving distance being a predictive factor this week. This, however, does require a little more scrutiny than simply accepting that fact on face value. The true reasoning for this is not simply that a bomb and gouge approach will work here for our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. Rather, the extremely juicy 3in Ryegrass rough requires some strength to escape.

The distance off the tee also comes into play with the disproportionate number of approach shots that will occur from over 200 yards. Notably, the par 3s play as the longest on the regular PGA Tour stops. Simply, those longer hitters will be holding more loft in their hand for those long iron shots when approaching these firm and glassy fast greens.

Fairways are decently wide with an average width of 33 yards at the 300 yard mark and 39 yards at the 325 mark. Green complexes are also very large at an average of 7,500 sq ft. SG: PUTT is highly correlated to success here. This is predominantly due to where you are on the greens matters above simply GIR, as well as the lengthened approach shots into many holes.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks – Key Metrics

For our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, this all leads to a profile of heavy emphasis on approach. Driving distance is a bonus, but my key is finding value by honing into the 200+ yard approach metrics. SG: PUTT receives a boost given the inclement weather and large green complexes. SG: ATG is minimized due to thick rough surrounding the greens meaning the natural variation of lies mitigates those with excellent pitching ability.

Course Comps

As previously mentioned, course history should form a large part in your Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. There are another few courses which can guide our thinking. Do take a look at round 4 from last year’s tournament. That round suffered significant winds, which we expect to see here on both Friday and Saturday.

As mentioned, the US Open like setup should mean the majority of those venues can provide guidance. Host of the PGA Championship last year was Southern Hills, which has similar metrics with the added benefit of being a wind affected event. TPC Scottsdale also shows similarities to here. That occurs both on long approach play but also reasonably large fairways with significant penalty if straying too far. Trump National Doral is a fantastic guide for anyone whose form goes back that far.

Weather

Already well canvassed across many tipsters, it does look that a firm weather edge is forming. Friday afternoon in particular looks to feature some significant winds with gusts reaching over 35 mph. These high winds are then expected to remain through the 3rd round before easing slightly Sunday. A Thursday PM/Friday AM stack looks to be the play.

As always, this does come with risks. There is a chance that this particular front will arrive earlier than expected. This could result in any advantage being negated, and missed opportunities in the other half of the field. However, I always like to take an aggressive approach in these situations. We have tangible data to action here. And the closer we have got to tee time, the certainty of the Friday weather remaining exclusively in the afternoon has also increased.

https://www.windy.com/28.465/-81.510?27.913,-81.510,8,m:esBadTk

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele
2.5pts E/W $23.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Tyrrell Hatton
2pts E/W $36.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Tom Kim
2pts E/W $51.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Gary Woodland
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.20

Patrick Rodgers
0.5pts E/W $176.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $7.00

Will Gordon
0.5pts E/W $301.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds) *available at 350/1 or longer without the places
3pts Top 20 $8.50

Player Profiles

Xander Schauffele – Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks Favourite

With Chris Kirk becoming the umpteenth golfer to win a week or two after featuring in our selections, I’m happy to take Xander here again to headline our Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks. Last time in our tips was at the correlated WM Phoenix Open, where he was just one shot off the lead heading into the final 9. A cold putter saw 6 of 9 putts missing by 25in or less. He finished just one shot outside the places for us. And not without some controversy too.

https://twitter.com/Top100Rick/status/1624793261545070593?s=20

Over the past two years, Xander ranks out 2nd of all PGA Tour players with over 300 measured approach shots 200+ yards. He sits only behind Sungjae Im. I prefer Xander for a couple reasons.

First, there are couple of par 4s here under 400 yards where Xander’s much better approach from 50-100 yards will come at an advantage. Secondly, Xander’s approach play of late has been nothing short of incredible.

Schauffele arrives here after four consecutive tournaments gaining 4+ strokes on approach. Over the last three months, Schauffele also tops the list for SG: APP in this field. He has never finished worse than 14th at a US Open, with 5/6 of those finishes an incredible 7th or better. And in his sole appearance at Bay Hill, he gained +6.5 strokes putting.

Tyrrell Hatton

Past champion Tyrrell Hatton was somewhat disappointing for us when selected last time at the Genesis Invitational. I’m willing to forgive him and go back to him here on a track obviously suited to his game. The real difficulty for Hatton last time out came simply not getting his entire game firing at the same time.

Thursday he was 14th SG: PUTT and 23rd SG: ATG, but 115th SG: APP and 91st SG: OTT.
Friday he was 27th SG: APP and 9th for SG: OTT, but 95th for SG: PUTT and 93rd SG: ATG.
Saturday he was 3rd SG: OTT, 5th SG: ATG, and 15th SG: PUTT yet 67th SG: APP.
Sunday he was 3rd SG: APP, but 46th SG: OTT, 39th SG: ATG, and 66th SG: PUTT.

You can see where I am going with this; he really just needs to put this all together at the same time and he can win. For SG: APP on shots 200+ yards, he sits 4th on the PGA Tour since 1 January 2023.

We saw shades of this at the correlated WM Phoenix Open, when finishing 6th in the elevated field. He gained a massive +6.72 SG: APP at that event and also holds a 15th in his only other appearance. Where course history matters most here, he sits 4th in this field for any golfer who has played 6 rounds or more.

I also love that last year he was one of only four golfers to shoot under par in a very windy final round. Complimenting that is a strong performance at a very windy Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which is a Rolex Series event on the DP World Tour. With wind again a factor this year, he looks a great fit on a course he loves at a reasonable price.

Tom Kim

It is easy to come up with all manner of superlatives to describe this talented 20 year old. And, equally, easy to forget how young he still is given all he has already achieved in the sport. To snag him back at a price of 50/1 is great value, especially when you consider he is shorter odds than that at all 4 majors this year.

The only reason I can think why bookmakers rate him 30% less likely to win this event than a major is driving distance. However, even this is a tenuous position. Masters typically rewards driving distance as does the US Open. Further, the main interest for me with distance comes from the approach play.

Tom Kim sits in the Top 10 of this field for SG: APP over the last 12 months. He also sits 5th on the PGA Tour over the last 2 years for SG: APP over 200+ yards. He holds onto 5th if we look at the same metric since 1 January 2023.

Given he is plenty long in this field for me, the fact he is significantly positive for driving accuracy is another big tick. Keeping on the short grass will be a big advantage here if hitting approach shots from distance. We all know what he can do with the putter, including during the Presidents Cup hosted at Quail Hollow which features similar greens to here.

Gary Woodland – Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Value

As mentioned in the preamble, Woodland really should have won this tournament for us last year. Holding a one stroke lead with two holes to play, a double bogey-bogey finish in the wind was a disappointing end to an overall valiant effort.

Woodland’s approach play looks to be back to its best of late. He arrives here ranked 5th for SG: APP over the last 30 days. This includes gaining an insane +10.48 SG: APP in his last tournament. That sat only behind winner Jon Rahm and Luke List, with a substantial distance to the pack. To secure him here again at 80/1, as we did last year, seems a steal for a golfer whose two most recent victories have come at the correlated US Open and WM Phoenix Open.

The issue for Woodland, as it is in most cases, will come down to the putter. The fact he has gained strokes putting here in 4/5 of his most recent appearances makes this one of the better spots for him.

Patrick Rodgers

We enter the somewhat speculative plays, but hopefully with sufficient equity in the top finishes markets to justify a couple of flyers here. Rodgers heads those picks. Data Golf currently have Rodgers ranked as 59th in the world versus an OWGR of 140th. Disparities like that often have a way of eventually correcting themselves, and it could well be here.

Rodgers has a decent record at Bay Hill, making 6/7 cuts and finishing 7th in 2018. Correlated form includes 14th, 16th, and 17th at TPC Scottsdale and a perfect record of made cuts in the US Open.

Patrick Rodgers arrives here hitting his long irons well, sitting in the Top 10 on the PGA Tour for SG: APP 200+ yards since 1 January 2023. He has plenty of driving distance and consistently gains strokes both ATG and putting. This includes gaining SG: Putt in 6/7 appearances here.

Rodgers was T11 in round 4 scoring here in 2022, which was played in those torrid windy conditions. Recent correlated form of 14th at the WM Phoenix Open elevated event suggests the 175/1 price is simply too long.

Will Gordon

Finally, we round out this week’s selections with another dive down the board to Will Gordon. The PGA Tour returnee had a stellar amateur career and holds some good correlating form on Florida tracks particularly from the Korn Ferry Tour.

Gordon has gained strokes on approach and driving accuracy in four straight events. He sits 30th for SG: APP and 40th for SG: PUTT in this field over the last 30 days. But it is again the long iron performance which holds the most appeal. Gordon currently sits 17th on the PGA Tour over the last 12 months for SG: APP over 200+ yards. Having gained on the field for driving distance at every event since March 2022, he does so without often compromising driving accuracy so ticks the SG: OTT box in a big way.

His sole appearance here came in 2021 during his first full season. It was a tough year for him in general, so the 49th finish should be read in the light of coming during a weak period of form. Rather, I’ll focus on the positive that he gained +4.00 SG: PUTT during the tournament to sit 12th in that metric. Arriving here with much improved approach play and undoubtedly a more rounded player, he is worth a gamble at huge odds.

For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

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Genesis Invitational Picks: All you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Justin Thomas looks set for a strong showing in our Genesis Invitational Picks — Justin Thomas looks set for a strong showing headlining our Genesis Invitational Picks

The WM Phoenix Open played out perhaps even better than the PGA Tour could have hoped. As we moved into our first full field designated event for 2023, the leaderboard was littered with studs. Although we don’t expect him to feature, it will be great to see Tiger Woods return to play here. But, it is worthy to know that a few value plays can still pop through for a ceiling week. Nick Taylor played brilliantly all week, even shooting a 65 in the final round, and still came up short of a resurgent Scottie Scheffler. It is a promising reminder that there is still value to find in these events as we move into our Genesis Invitational Picks.

We had a very live chance in Xander Schauffele as our favourite play for the week. Schauffele was one off the lead 2/3rd of the way through Saturday. An untimely bogey on the 13th was a stopper to his momentum. He never ever really recovered. The final round still showed promise with decent approach numbers. 6 of 9 putts missed by less than 25 inches truly put paid to his chances. It happens.

Jhonnatan Vegas continues to show a quick return to form following his planned surgery in August last year. Sitting within the top 10 through the first 3 rounds, a final round 73 saw him move backwards through the field. It does, however, mark consecutive top 25s for Vegas. He secured us another Top 40 cash. More on him shortly as he makes our Genesis Invitational picks.

Course Analysis & Comp Courses for our Genesis Invitational Picks

Much like TPC Scottsdale, we have plenty of data from The Riviera Country Club to aid our Genesis Invitational picks this week. Scottie Scheffler only aided to the fact prior course form has some of the highest correlation to future success at the WM Phoenix Open compared to anywhere on tour. Nearly as much weight should placed on this here for our Genesis Invitational picks.

Riviera remains highly correlated, even though less so than TPC Scottsdale. This iconic course demands a variety of shots in each direction. You will really find a flat approach shot on the course. Despite the large green complexes in excess of 7,500 sq ft on average, precise approach play is still required. The greens here play very firm and fast. Akin to the fairways, they are highly undulated and protected by deep bunkers. The reduction in greens in regulation compared to other tour stops can be further explained by this ranking in the 5 most difficult courses to find (and hold) the fairway.

Along with past form here, for our Genesis Invitational picks the parallels to Augusta National are obvious. So often this has provided a great guide to The Masters. TPC San Antonio also provides a guide, with both courses sharing a high correlation to success from around the green play. Copperhead, host of the Valspar Championship, also fits the eye here with narrow tree lined fairways and the need for shot shaping.

Weather

It is worth noting the course superintendent makes reference to the heavy rainfall experienced in LA so far this year. The first three weeks of 2023 saw 10.25″ of rain, for a city which receives on average 11.7″ for an entire year. Although there has been some respite the last week, you would have to imagine the course will be lush. It is doubtful the course will play very soft, but may not be as penal as we expect and should guide our Genesis Invitational picks.

It does look very cold this week in LA. Both mornings indicate temperatures in the single digits Celsius (low 40s). Thursday morning looks particularly cold at 4C (40F) and gusty. The wind should ease a little as the day goes on as well as temperatures rising in the forecast sun. Friday AM looks slightly warmer from 9C (48F) and again warming as the day goes on. Winds should be fairly consistent all day Friday.

I do note that despite Poa Annua having a tendency to get bumpy and inconsistent after foot traffic, the mornings do look tough particularly on Thursday. I suspect Thursday PM/Friday AM groups will get a slight advantage this week of between 0.5-0.8 strokes.

https://www.windy.com/34.046/-118.502?icon,33.526,-118.502,8,m:eBTacRE

Genesis Invitational Picks

Suggested Staking

Justin Thomas
2.5pts E/W $17.00 (6 places, 1/5 odds)

Tyrrell Hatton
2pts E/W $46.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Si Woo Kim
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.33

Alex Noren
1pt E/W $91.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.00

Wyndham Clark
1pt E/W $101.00 (6 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.35

Jhonattan Vegas
0.5pts E/W $201.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $5.75

Golfer Profiles

Justin Thomas – Our Genesis Invitational Picks Favourite

Justin Thomas headlines our selections this week. Although a name widely floated in the industry this week, it is our view it is for good reason. A string of mediocre tournaments of approach play led to a 6 months at the end of 2022 where he managed just one top 5, coming in a strong but reduced field of the Tour Championship at that.

Typically a hallmark of JT’s impending success, the approach play looks to be back. Thomas is 3rd in the world across the last two years for SG: APP from 150-200 yards, the key distance to target here. Having gained over 4 strokes on approach at the Farmers Insurance Open, JT continued to show improvement last week. Having lost SG: APP in round 1, Thomas then was 13th for SG: APP in round 3 and lead the field by some margin in round 4.

2nd, 6th, and 9th here ticks the course form box as do a raft of top 25 or better finishes at the other comp courses. What never went missing was his elite short game, having not lost for SG: ATG since June 2022. He looks primed for success and arrives at a track that suits his game perfectly.

Tyrrell Hatton

Hatton arrives in excellent form at a course that should suit his game well. Hatton was 4th for SG: APP last week and also gained a huge number of strokes on the field through driving accuracy. All provide indicators of a player comfortable with his swing as he finished 6th in a strong field.

The only thing that held him from a win was an outlier week around and on the greens. Ranking 14th in SG: Putt and 22nd for SG: ATG in this field suggest we should see some reversion to his long-term mean.

The main factor that looks to influence his price this week is a sole appearance here for a missed cut. Hatton has an excellent record at Emirates Golf Club, which is highly correlated to Augusta National and complementary to here. I prefer to look at the fact he has played here before as a positive, as he arrives at a course that rewards short game and his approach numbers suit too.

Si Woo Kim

Correlated course form jumps off the page for Si Woo Kim, who is enjoying a rich vein of form. Following his Sony Open victory, Si Woo has secured three consecutive top 25 finishes. Those results have come at a variety of courses, from the shorter tracks at The American Express to the long Torrey Pines.

Si Woo has a 3rd here previously, a record of 4-23-13 at TPC San Antonio, and a recent 12th at The Masters. Despite lacking distance on some of his peers in this field, he is long enough to be competitive. Across the weekend at the Phoenix Open, Si Woo was 2nd and 11th for SG: OTT. In the key approach metric, Si Woo is 11th in the world over the last year for SG: APP from 150-200 yards. And, he has certainly previously found joy on these tricky putting surfaces:

https://twitter.com/odysseygolf/status/1228367735450558465?s=20

Alex Noren

Alex Noren squeaked into the Genesis Invitational picks this week just ahead of Fleetwood, Power, Hossler, and JJ Spaun. Part of that is a nagging feeling that we didn’t see the best of him last week and to dismiss his credentials on the basis of that may be short-sighted.

Noren missed the cut on the number, hampered by a poor opening round in tricky conditions. The 2nd round was much improved, sitting 10th in SG: APP and making a decent charge at making the weekend. He is 24th for SG: ATG over the last 2 years and 5th for SG: PUTT. That then goes to 1st for SG: PUTT, 21st for SG: APP, and 7th for SG: TOTAL if looking at a shorter 3 month time frame.

Alongside Emirates Golf Club form, Noren has never missed a cut here including a 12th and 16th. A 12th and 21st at the Valspar Championship in his two appearances is a further boost here.

Wyndham Clark – Our Genesis Invitational Picks Best Value

In our 2022 season recap, I predicted that both Aaron Wise and Wyndham Clark looked set for a big year. Clark has already begun to show some of that promise in what could well become his best season.

Clark sits 3rd in this field for SG: ATG, 16th for SG: T2G, and 19th for SG: TOTAL over the last 3 months. Most eye-catching is the improvement of his iron play: his perennial pitfall thus far. He was 7th for SG: APP last week in the stacked WM Phoenix Open field when eventually finishing 10th. That follows improvement of 15th in that metric at the Farmers Insurance Open.

He already holds a 17th and 8th here (followed by a DQ for signing an incorrect scorecard). For a course which has proven difficult for debutants, that shows a lot of potential. Should it all come together, this could be the venue of a surprise breakthrough victory.

Jhonattan Vegas

As promised, we round out our Genesis Invitational Picks with Jhonny Vegas. It remains to be seen what Vegas needs to do to see a shortening in price. We are happy to include him for the third consecutive tournament until it does, as there is certainly value to be had here.

Per our previous write-ups, Vegas had planned surgery following the end of season playoffs. It looks to have paid dividends near immediately, with consecutive top 25 finishes. Vegas continues to display excellent approach metrics, has gained SG: OTT in his last 11 starts, and has seen an uptick in driving accuracy since his return.

Vegas was 7th for SG: ATG at the WM Phoenix Open and 5th for SG: OTT. There were also flashes with his iron play, with round 3 a finish for SG: APP 18th also notable. He looks to be in decent form and arrives at an event where he has finished 15th and 12th previously. Sitting as long as 250/1 without places he is well worth a look here having not done much wrong since return, arriving at perhaps a better fit for his game, and presenting great value.

For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

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WM Phoenix Open Picks: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Xander Schauffele leads our WM Phoenix Open Picks at TPC Scottsdale — Xander Schauffele can turn his elite course form into another PGA Tour victory

Another week and it was a consecutive runner-up finish for our picks! That keeps our run of selecting a golfer in the Top 5 or better at every PGA Tour event in 2023. It truly has been a great start to the year. In this instance, it was Brendon Todd who secured 2nd behind Justin Rose in a heavily wind delayed Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Another runner-up, this time at 70/1, and we are well in profit for the year. The hot streak shows no signs of stopping any time soon with our WM Phoenix Open Picks!

The WM Phoenix Open represents the first full field of the designated events since the PGA Tour meetings in 2022. Chiefly, this was a direct attempt to negate the effect of LIV Golf on the tour. This sees a field of Major championship calibre competing for a generous $20m purse. Let’s get into it!

Course Analysis

TPC Scottsdale plays host to this event as it has done since 1987. Do note some substantial redesign work was completed in 2014. The course now provides a sterner test which has become renowned as an all around test of a golfer’s game. As such, the cream often rises to the top here. The winner has been priced at 50/1 or less at every tournament since those renovations. 5 out of 8 of those winners have been at 30/1 or shorter.

Trends are nice, but not always informative. Therefore, this should not be the sole influence to your WM Phoenix Open Picks. Remember, we are looking for value not necessarily winners. For an article with insights on what this means and my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

Ball-striking is well-linked to success here. Somewhat overlooked by others in the industry this week is that this course is also a major factor. Solely looking at SG: T2G would exclude one of the key indicators for potential success. The greens here are very large at over 7,000 sq feet on average. Ideally, we want elite ball strikers who can then give us a chance of making putts. Especially, the putting statistics might come into play with some long putts required. The greens are playing ultra fast and firm, as are the fairways. Rough is not overly penal at just 2 inches ryegrass.

Comp Courses for our WM Phoenix Open Picks

This course is one of the highest correlations between prior course form and future success. In fact, the only courses with greater correlation are Augusta National, Waialae, and Bay Hill. As a matter of fact, Bay Hill is a decent course comp for this track, as is the 2022 PGA Championship host Southern Hills and Houston Open host Memorial Park. Those three said courses have played a key role in determining our WM Phoenix Open Picks.

Weather

Alongside a dry course with no rain in the forecast, there is wind to contend with here. Consequently, this should add to those aforementioned firm and fast conditions. Expect higher missed fairways per usual, as holding the short grass becomes more difficult. It is also forecast to be cold all week, particularly in the mornings.

The winds at this stage have not resulted in any discernible edge for a weather draw. Generally, increased winds are expected both on the afternoon of the Thursday and Friday. Overall, gusts look to be at a similar strength across both days. However, Friday AM may end up windier than Thursday AM. Accordingly, it may be worthy building some lines with exclusively Thursday AM/Friday PM tee-times to cover an eventuality where Friday AM ends up particularly tumultuous.

https://www.windy.com/33.640/-111.915?icon,33.117,-111.915,8,m:eBfac2D

2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks

Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Favourite Play
2.5pts E/W $17.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Alex Noren
2pts E/W $67.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Shane Lowry
2pts E/W $71.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Keith Mitchell – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W $76.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.60

Lucas Herbert
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Chris Kirk
1pt E/W $91.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Jhonattan Vegas
0.5pt E/W $201.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $6.50
2pts Top 40 $2.70

Golfer Profiles

Xander Schauffele – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Favourite Play

Firstly, Xander Schauffele leads our WM Phoenix Open Picks. Xander emphatically shook off his (somewhat undeserved) reputation for having difficulty crossing the winners line. Wins at the Zurich Classic, Travelers Championship, and Genesis Scottish Open all contributed to a stellar year in 2022.

At 17/1, there is real value in the number on offer where fair odds would place him more in the space of a 14/1 chance. Correlated form bounds off the page for Xander. Across his obvious course form here, at Bay Hill, and at Southern Hills, he has never finished worse than 24th in those 7 starts.

In fact, he ranks 2nd in true SG at this course for any golfer with more than 4 rounds played. Leading that is Matsuyama, who I can easily fade this week given his indifferent form and possible long-term lingering injury concerns. Scheffler and Rahm follow closely

Notably, this form includes a 3rd and 2nd here in his last two appearances. Previous fears of a neck injury for Xander at the Sentry Tournament of Champions look to now be gone. He returned just two weeks later to finish 3rd at The American Express and followed that with a 13th around the tougher Torrey Pines course at the Farmers Insurance Open. He is fit, in great form, and arrives at a course which is one of his favourites on the PGA Tour.

Alex Noren

Alex Noren looks to be back at his best having finished in the Top 5 in his last three starts. In November, Noren finished 4th at the Houston Open where Memorial Park presents strong links to TPC Scottsdale. That result came from nowhere after a very indifferent 42nd in a weak field at Mayakoba, suggesting the type of track that suits his eye.

He has kept that recent form at other desert courses in the Middle East. A 2nd at the DP World Tour Championship behind one Jon Rahm, when we had Noren in our tips at long odds, and a 5th at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship both present elite form in two Rolex Series events.

Alex Noren ranks 1st in this field for SG: PUTT and 26th for SG: APP over the last 3 months. Those two metrics together provide a nice recipe for success on this track of pin seekers who can then make putts when needed.

The course history and comp course performances are stout. A 6th here last year alongside a 44th and 21st when in worse form in 2018/19 both joining the 4th place at the Houston Open. He was an obvious must include for our WM Phoenix Open Picks.

Shane Lowry

Shane Lowry had statistically the best year of his career in 2022, surpassing even his 2019 season when he won The Open Championship and Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.

Lowry was perhaps unlucky to secure just the one win, although it was a big one in the BMW PGA Championship when he backed him for the win as he secured the flagship event on the DP World Tour. We also had him as our favourite play when he finished 3rd at The Masters, and somehow he continues to be overlooked despite being amongst the true elite players of this era.

I believe leading people astray was a missed cut at the Dubai Desert Classic last start. It should be noted that event was severely weather affected, including losing a full day of play, and there was a significant draw bias that formed as a result. However, strike a line through that and his form reads beautifully. Over the last 12 months, he ranks 8th in this field for SG: APP.

In terms of correlated form, a 23rd at Southern Hills in the PGA Championship was better than it looked again suffering from a large draw bias. He also holds a 11th at Memorial Park and a 6th and 16th here at TPC Scottsdale from 2016 and 2017 respectively.

Lowry is a better golfer now and, despite being a stronger field, he simply should not be as long as 70/1. He also recently fired his caddy, due to losing their competitive spark. Given he is playing so well, that is promising to his confidence in his game at the moment. And we have often seen a golfer make such a change and immediately spike in performance, which may well happen here.

Keith Mitchell – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Best Value

It was close between Lowry and Mitchell who would earn the tag of “best value” for this week. Keith Mitchell will typically give you some excellent driving, with gains both on distance and accuracy.

He is also gaining significantly on approach lately, finishing in the Top 30 for SG: APP in his last two starts. Entering here on the back of a 22nd and 4th, both coming at shorter courses which for me are not Mitchell’s best fits, is certainly promising.

Again, the comp course form really pops here. Mitchell was 9th in November at Memorial Park, finished 34th at Southern Hills when in dreadful form of MC-MC-76 in his three prior starts, and has a 5th and 6th around Bay Hill. To boot, he finished 10th at TPC Scottsdale at last year’s edition.

As always with Mitchell, it will come down to his putting for the week. Given his recent form filling him with confidence, and his prior form on these greens, it presents a promising opportunity for Mitchell to secure his 2nd PGA Tour victory.

Lucas Herbert

Our WinDaily family will know I have a soft spot for Lucas Herbert in windy conditions, which we may well encounter this week. Irrespective of that, Herbert simply presents as a golfer in great form with excellent results at similar events.

Herbert arrives off two stellar tournaments in the desert. A 3rd at the Dubai Desert Classic continued his rich association with that event (and makes the 250/1 on offer for him at The Masters even more absurd). He followed that with a 3rd at the Saudi International. That was not necessarily a weak field as the Asian Tour’s flagship event, won by Abe Ancer with Cam Young in 2nd.

Other correlated form comes at Southern Hills when finishing 13th, where we had backed him at 300/1. He also finished 7th around Bay Hill at the Arnold Palmer, when we also had him at 200/1. Although we sadly can’t find him at those juicy triple figure odds here, that is largely down to his more obvious recent form than the more nuanced indicators in his game I look for.

Lucas Herbert is the inverse of many profiles we look for. He is one of the best putters in the world, ranking 4th over the last 2 years and 2nd in the last 12 months for SG: PUTT from this field. What we want to see from Herbert is a spike round with his irons. Given his recent form, he looks to be hitting the ball beautifully and could well contend on this desert track.

Chris Kirk

The numbers around Kirk are rather absurd for a golfer who arrives here following two consecutive 3rd place finishes. It becomes even more baffling when we deep dive some of his prior form on related courses.

Kirk finished 14th here in 2022, to compliment prior performances of an 11th and 24th. In 2022, he also finished 5th at Bay Hill as well as a 5th at the PGA Championship around Southern Hills. Those were his two best finishes for the year, and the fact they both came at correlated courses to here whilst in elite fields is extremely promising.

He is not the longest off the tee, which is not overly detrimental. This is a course played at altitude which will also be playing very firm and fast. In fact, his superior driving accuracy could prove beneficial as will his excellent iron play. Kirk ranks at 9th for SG:APP over the last 3 months, 10th for SG: PUTT, and 12th for SG: T2G in this field. Those are outrageous numbers considering the strength of field on offer, as well as his price.

Jhonattan Vegas

Finally, we go back to Jhonny Vegas here having not done much wrong for us last time out at the Farmers. Vegas secured a Top 40 place for us there, as he returns from planned shoulder surgery in August of 2022.

Vegas look to be straight into it. He gained on the field for driving distance and accuracy in his two tournament starts this year. He has also gained on SG: APP in both appearances. If we take a longer term look at his form, we find a player who ranks 16th in SG: OTT and 23rd for SG: APP in this field, as well as 32nd for SG: TOTAL, over the last two years.

Jhonattan Vegas finished 10th at his last appearance here in 2019, as well as holding a 23rd at Bay Hill that same year. Overall, that is a lot of value for a player at 200/1 who has been largely forgotten about in fields of late due to a planned absence he looks fully recovered from. We won’t and happily go right back to him here at a big price.

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