Ghost

The WinDailySports team is back for more extensive coverage on today’s NBA slate and we have a great one on tap beginning at 4pm EST. While there are still games hitting totals of 250+, teams are getting into a groove on defense and the totals are coming back down to into the realm of reality, similarly to what we saw throughout the 2019-2020 season. TJ Warren has been virtually unstoppable in the bubble and faces the Phoenix Suns today, which I’ll touch on in the Core Gems, Kawhi is cheaper than TJ Warren (?!) on FD, and there is plenty of value to be had on the NBA slate. We need to take advantage of these larger slates before playoffs begin for our cash games to avoid lineup chains, so let’s get after it…

The Lock: TJ Warren, SF ($8,800 FD / $8,400 DK)

Arguably the best player since the NBA took its talents to Orlando, Florida in the bubble, TJ Warren has been on a tear. In 3 games since the NBA restarted after a long layoff, Warren is averaging 39.7 PPG to go along with 5.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2 steals and 2.3 blocks. He has yet another glorious matchup here versus the Suns, and despite his price tag being inflated due to recency bias and his run in the bubble, he needs to be a staple point in your cash game ownerships due to the combination of expected ownership and the concern that he pops yet again. The fact that he’s more expensive than Kawhi Leonard on FD is a little ridiculous in my opinion, but he’s still drawing more ownership in the early morning than the reigning Finals MVP. For our narrative friends, how’s this for one…

The Core Gems

James Harden, SG ($10,600 FD / $10,700 DK)

Not only is he arguably the most dangerous player on the offensive side of an NBA court, but James Harden may have even more usage – if that’s even possible – with fellow All-NBA talent Russell Westbrook questionable for their game versus LeBron, AD, and the Lakers. Sporting the third-highest usage rate this NBA season at 35.4%, Harden should see his usage on the offensive end creep into the 40s and maybe even hit 50%. Despite the Lakers’ stout defense, don’t overthink this one: Westbrook is out, you lock Harden. Every. Single. Time.

Paul George, SG ($7,700 FD / $7,800 DK)

I wanted to slot in Kawhi Leonard in this second Core Gem spot, but with him being the second SF listed alongside TJ Warren, I wanted to give another option in PG13 who is SG eligible on FD. Both are absurdly priced in a game with a 231.5 over/under and tight spread. With the Denver Nuggets now only 0.5 games back of the Clippers, they need to ensure they maintain their spot as the second seed in the West. Today’s game could be a preview of a first-round matchup, and I still expect Doc Rivers to be cautious with all of his stars. However, Patrick Beverly is already ruled out and Lou Williams is still getting back into game shape. Two of PG13, Kawhi, and Marcus Morris will be tasked with guarding Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, so look for Kawhi and PG to carry the Clippers on offense here and lead them to a victory as they ramp up their intensity for a deep playoff run.

Also Consider: DeAndre Ayton, C ($7,500 FD / $7,200 DK)

The Value Gems

Miami Heat Value

With Jimmy Butler already ruled out at the time of writing, players such as Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn, and Tyler Herro in the backcourt, as well as my hidden gem from last slate, Kelly Olynyk, and Jamison Crowder should all see extended run. Now, Dragic is also listed as questionable so if he were to miss this one, I have no issue with playing multiple Heat value Gems here in a game that means virtually nothing to Milwaukee.

Value PG Gems

He’s out of consideration for my DK lineups being nearly 6K, but over on FD, Reggie Jackson presents himself as the best value PG for our cash game lineups with Patrick Beverly out. With that being said, should Jamal Murray (DEN) or Malcolm Brogdon (IND) miss yet another game with their respective nagging injuries, playing such as Aaron Holiday (IND) and Monte Morris (DEN) would shoot up the list from a Point/$ perspective.

Michael Porter Jr., PF ($5,500 FD / $6,400 DK)

When a player is climbing into the 6K range on both sites, he doesn’t necessarily stand out as a Value Gem, but with MPJ finding his shot for the Nuggets last game, someone will score in bunches versus an awful Portland defense, and that will most likely be MPJ and Nikola Jokic. I’ve said it time and time again: without Trevor Ariza, the Blazers are extremely vulnerable on the wing and, with no disrespect to one of my favorite childhood NBA players and future Hall of Famer Carmelo Anthony, he is no match for the kid out of Missouri.

A Quick Note on NBA DFS

While there are many different sports and various contests pertaining to DFS along with their respective strategies, we focus on the main approaches to build both reliable cash and GPP lineups for a successful NBA night including pace, the projected over/under, one on one matchups (DVP), a player’s usage rate, and a team’s defensive rating. Make sure to stay active when building NBA lineups – if you cannot be in front of a computer, tablet, or on your phone an hour before lock, do not throw your money away! NBA DFS lineups can change at the blink of an eye and are the most variable compared to any other sport in DFS; players get injured, some sit for load management, and others find themselves on the DNP list for other reasons; any of which can sway your lineup and where to find value. Stay alert on the WinDaily Discord chat to follow along with our updated plays. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !

It’s always a great day when we have basketball to watch throughout the entire day and thus having coinciding NBA DFS slates. The NBA bubble has been posting some rather high game totals, but with yesterday’s Houston/Portland game seemingly being on the lower end of game totals from Orlando, Florida, NBA teams are starting to get back into their groove and execute their defensive schemes. A quick reminder: when playing cash games, it is not necessarily about trying to finish first – it’s more so about leveraging the field in the sense that we need to deploy players in our lineups that are highly owned in order to not let the field jump ahead of us should one of them post an impressive NBA DFS score, while also finding 1-2 spots to pivot in order to jump ahead of those lineup trains (where lineups are identical). There are a few players that really stick out to me for our NBA cash game lineups today, so let’s get to it.

The Lock: Donovan Mitchell, SG ($7,300 FD / $7,500 DK)

The lock of the day is an underpriced Donovan Mitchell in the very first game of today’s NBA slate. Facing a Memphis Grizzlies team that like to push the pace with ROY frontrunner Ja Morant, Mitchell should thrive in a game environment that comes with a 224.5 over/under and tight spread. Most notably, Memphis struggles versus the ‘2’, allowing over 44 FPPG to opposing shooting guards this season.

The Core Gems

Joel Embiid, C ($9,500 FD / $10,400 DK)

After last game’s experiment of running their offense through Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and even Shake Milton, I think the 76ers get back to deploying their star big man in bunches here today. This NBA slate does have another attractive center option in Jarrett Allen, should he play, but Embiid is my guy today. While his 44.3 fantasy point output was modest given his lofty salary on the last slate the 76ers were on, Embiid posted a remarkable 1.43 FPPM and is the definition of efficiency in NBA DFS. Matching up versus the likes of Thomas Bryant, Rui Hachimura, and Mo Wagner, Embiid will dominate all facets of the game today, and will likely come in at lower ownership than he should be given the combination of a [possible] return of Jarrett Allen and last game’s “dud”.

Brandon Clarke, PF ($4,900 FD / $4,600 DK)

The Memphis PF gives us yet another piece to target in the first game on the NBA slate, but he needs to be in all of your cash lineups. Jaren Jackson Jr. is now out for the remainder of the season with a torn meniscus in his left knee, and although Clarke has not officially been declared the starter at the time of writing, there is no doubt in my mind that he will be closer to tip-off and be a great asset for our NBA DFS lineups. This is the kind of chalk (high ownership) play you want to eat and get different elsewhere considering how low his price is and the floor/ceiling relationship he presents in a matchup versus Utah.

The Value Gems

Brooklyn Nets Value

While it is possible for one or multiple of Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, and Joe Harris to return to the starting 5, we need to wait for news before making a call here. If you were in Discord with the team and I all day yesterday before lock, I was saying to avoid the Nets chalk simply because I felt it was a trap and outside of TLC, they were. If Allen ($5,400 DK) is in, lock him in no matter what, and Caris LeVert would be an intriguing target as well, but the situation is TBD.

Boston Celtics ‘Big 4’

I mean, I guess we can call them a Big 4? With Kemba Walker sitting out the second half of a back-to-back as anticipated, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, and Jayson Tatum all see upticks in both minutes and usage. Brad Wanamaker will likely draw some ownership, but as of right now, this is the kind of play I like to pivot from in cash games to get ahead of the field given how low his ceiling is. With that being said, he is hard to ignore at minimum salary ($3,000) on DK.

Denver Nuggets / San Antonio Spurs Value

Both of these teams are coming in with depleted rotations and the value will ultimately depend on whether Jamal Murray plays or not. At the time of writing, he has not had a confirmed designation for this afternoon’s game, but with both Gary Harris and Will Barton continuing to deal with injuries, I would expect the Nuggets to sit out the Canadian point guard and let him heal for playoffs. Guys like Monte Morris, Torrey Craig, Jerami Grant, and Michael Porter Jr. will continue to see increased minutes and usage in the short term. As for the Spurs, Keldon Johnson and Lonnie Walker should see increased minutes on the wing, but I prefer to look elsewhere for now – but they’re an option, nonetheless.

Los Angeles Lakers Value

Given that the Lakers have officially locked up the #1 seed in the West, it’s possible that one or both of Anthony Davis and LeBron James sit out today’s game versus OKC. As mentioned on the livestream, the Lakers remain without a true point guard on the roster outside of LeBron James and should he sit this one out or play limited minutes, I’ll be all over guys like Dion Waiters and Alex Caruso, who should fill the void for James, as well as Kyle Kuzma, who could see extended run if AD sits.

A Quick Note on NBA DFS

While there are many different sports and various contests pertaining to DFS along with their respective strategies, we focus on the main approaches to build both reliable cash and GPP lineups for a successful NBA night including pace, the projected over/under, one on one matchups (DVP), a player’s usage rate, and a team’s defensive rating. Make sure to stay active when building NBA lineups – if you cannot be in front of a computer, tablet, or on your phone an hour before lock, do not throw your money away! NBA DFS lineups can change at the blink of an eye and are the most variable compared to any other sport in DFS; players get injured, some sit for load management, and others find themselves on the DNP list for other reasons; any of which can sway your lineup and where to find value. Stay alert on the WinDaily Discord chat to follow along with our updated plays. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !

What’s better than being able to watch basketball in the afternoon on a weekend? Pretty much nothing, but some afternoon NBA DFS doesn’t hurt either. We’ve learned a lot from the first two days of NBA action from the Walt Disney bubble and my main takeaway is that star players are seemingly a full-go, with the exception of those nursing injuries, such as Zion. The key news we’ll be waiting for today stems primarily from the Denver Nuggets, who are already going to be without Will Barton and Gary Harris, and may even be without star Canadian (sorry, had to put that in there) point guard Jamal Murray. Moreover, the rotation over in Indiana should be interesting to see, with Domantas Sabonis ruled out and both Victor Oladipo and Malcolm Brogdon questionable. These bigger NBA slates are more suitable for cash games than the 2-gamers, so let’s take a look at some early targets.

The Lock: Paul George, SG ($7,700 FD / $7,900 DK)

My favorite game environment to attack on today’s NBA slate is the LA-NOP game. Not only does it have the highest over/under at 229, but both teams rank in the Top 10 in pace and with the trend of nearly every game hitting the over after two days of action, this game is a great candidate to be the highest scoring affair on the NBA slate. PG13 looked amazing in the Battle of LA, dropping 30 points and accumulating 3 steals along the way, looking like the true 2-way threat is he. Sporting a 29.2% usage rate, PG should dominate his matchup versus Jrue Holiday and whoever sees more minutes on the wing with Zion still limited.

The Gems

Joel Embiid, C ($9,000 FD / $9,700 DK)

We’ll have to wait to see which starting lineup the 76ers deploy here,but they’ve been experimenting with Shake Milton running point and shifting BenSimmons to the ‘4’ with Al Horford consequently coming off the bench. Having a ‘4’who can still be a primary ball handler and Shake Milton being a bigger threaton the outside perimeter than Horford opens up room for Embiid in the paint,where he should take advantage of Myles Turner all night long. The Pacers allowover 54 FPPG to the center position and is their lone vulnerability on defense,and I plan to maximize Joel Embiid’s DVP matchup along with his 31.3% usagerate on both sites tonight.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, SG ($7,300 FD / $6,800 DK)

With OKC being one of the surprising playoff contenders in the West, SGAhas made their fanbase cope with the loss of All-NBA talents Russell Westbrookand Paul George by cushioning the blow behind his play with a rejuvenated ChrisPaul in the backcourt. SGA has an average scoring line of 23/4/2 with 1.5steals across 35.1 minutes per game versus Utah this season and should see aton of Donovan Mitchell, who poses a good DVP opponent. His 23.5% usage rate islower than fellow teammate Dennis Schroder off the bench, but there’s nodenying SGA’s potential in this matchup to hit value with a seemingly low pricetag on both DK and FD.

Also Consider: TJ Warren, SF ($6,000 FD / $5,800 DK)

The Value Gems

Jordan Clarkson, SG ($4,500 FD / $3,900 DK)

Reggie Jackson, PG ($4,100 FD / $4,100 DK)

Possible Denver Nuggets value (stay tuned in Discord for projected minutes and starters): Tory Craig, SG ($3,600 FD / $3,000 DK), Michael Porter Jr., PF ($3,700 FD / $3,000 DK), Monte Morris, PG ($3,900 FD / $3,500 DK)

IF Brogdon out: TJ McConnell, PG ($3,700 FD / $3,800 DK), Aaron Holiday($4,300 FD / $4,000 DK)

IF starting: Shake Milton, PG ($4,400 FD / $5,600 DK)

A Quick Note on NBA DFS

While there are many different sports andvarious contests pertaining to DFS along with their respective strategies, wefocus on the main approaches to build both reliable cash and GPP lineups for asuccessful NBA night including pace, the projected over/under, one on onematchups (DVP), a player’s usage rate, and a team’s defensive rating. Make sureto stay active when building NBA lineups – if you cannot be in front of acomputer, tablet, or on your phone an hour before lock, do not throw your moneyaway! NBA DFS lineups can change at the blink of an eye and are the mostvariable compared to any other sport in DFS; players get injured, some sit forload management, and others find themselves on the DNP list for other reasons;any of which can sway your lineup and where to find value. Stay alert on the WinDaily Discordchat to follow along with our updated plays. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !