Gems

A few mismatches on this NBA slate but there are two games that stand above the rest. Additionally, the Warriors will likely be getting the bulk of their rotation back, while the league’s top three teams, all in the Western Conference, take the court. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Brooklyn Nets @ Charlotte Hornets (+4)

I’ll be as clear as I can for this game: if you do not get exposure to it, you will not win money on tonight’s NBA slate. It’s that simple. Putting aside the fact that this game has the highest total on the board by ten points, it grades out ridiculously well in terms of advanced statistics. Ranking 3rd and 11th in pace, respectively, the Hornets and Nets both struggle on the defensive end in addition to their quick style of play, sitting 20th and 23rd in net defensive rating, respectively.

Brooklyn Nets (-4)

I’ll be starting my NBA lineups with Kevin Durant tonight. In two games since returning from injury, KD has sported a 35.8% usage rate and has posted back-to-back 30-point outings, en route to a 34/5/6 scoring line on 52.4% shooting. This last stretch for the Nets reeks of “Save us, KD!” and tonight, versus a Hornets team that simply cannot put things together in their own half of the court, one of the all-time greats will takeover.

Charlotte Hornets (+4)

I’m certainly not forcing a run back in this one, but there are a few intriguing targets, beginning with none other than LaMelo Ball, who is wildly underpriced. The Hornets need to have a good end to their season in order to secure home court in the first round of the play-in games, and if they know what’s good for them, they’ll run LaMelo into the ground to get there. Ranking 23rd in 3PM allowed to opposing primary ball handlers, including 25th in both points allowed and rebounds allowed to primary ball handlers, the Nets will have their hands full with one of the league’s best young talents.

For tournaments on this NBA slate, I have interest in the Hornets bench, as well. The duo of PJ Washington and Montrezl Harrell both carry upside as small-ball centers versus a Nets squad that sits 18th in the league in points in the paint allowed per game. I can’t foresee Mason Plumlee getting a ton of run versus the likes of Andre Drummond or Nic Claxton, leading to both sides playing their skilled forwards at the ‘5’. Harrell, who has now played nine games with the Hornets since being acquired from the Wizards, has averaged 14.2 PPG off the bench in only 26 MPG, and carries immense upside at his price tag.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5)

The rest of the NBA needs to be careful, because the Pelicans are picking up steam since their acquisition of CJ McCollum. Whether Zion Williamson makes his return to the lineup this season, if ever at all in New Orleans, certainly remains to be seen, but either way, they look tremendous on the offensive side of the ball.

New Orleans Pelicans (+5.5)

While CJ McCollum comes at a pretty penny on tonight’s NBA slate, it is more than justified. The newest addition to the Pelicans has now suited up for ten games with his new team, where they are not only much more competitive, but also getting career-high production from their new point guard. McCollum has posted a whopping 26.1/5.7/6.1 scoring line on 51.8% shooting, logging nearly 36 minutes per night. He is not the only intriguing target, however, especially if you are targeting two ~8k players to pair with Durant. Brandon Ingram as been on a year as of late, scoring 30 or more points in two of his last three, with the other being a 29-point outing. With Memphis still missing their best defender in Dillon Brooks, Ingram could wreck havoc against the likes of Ziaire Williams and Kyle Anderson.

Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5)

While I praise New Orleans for the improvements they have made on the offensive side of the ball, their defense has not improved whatsoever since acquiring McCollum. To be precise, they have a 111.4 net defensive rating in McCollum’s ten games this season, which would rank them 20th in the NBA on a season-long basis. Thus, there is plenty to love about Ja Morant tonight, who has been enjoying a breakout campaign. While I dodged the two letdown games at high rostership in his last two, tonight is a different story with most avoiding this game altogether in favor of other studs. With the Pelicans ranking 26th in the league in scoring allowed to opposing primary ball handlers, expect a statement game from Morant as the Grizzlies try to hold down the #2 seed in the West.

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

The story of tonight’s action in the NBA is the number of players that are sitting out for their respective teams. The Warriors and Trail Blazers will be awfully thin, while numerous players are already listed as questionable. While it is crucial to keep up with the news on any given NBA slate, tonight will be one like no other. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers (-7)

With the number of value plays available to us on this NBA slate, we’ll have the luxury of fitting any stud we want. Despite both Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic being elite options, there is no more competitive game environment on the slate than a tilt between two Eastern Conference heavyweights.

Hop on the James Harden train tonight because when it leaves the station, you’ll want to be onboard. Suffering a serious blow to their perimeter defense in the absence of Lonzo Ball, the Bulls will throw a combination of Zach Lavine and Ayo Dosunmu against the most prolific offensive player of this generation and, well, it’s not great, Bob. Respectively, Lavine and Dosunmu rank 15th and 23rd in the NBA in net individual defensive ratings this season amongst qualified players, whereby they both rank inside the bottom-10 amongst qualified starters. Harden, who has posted a 26.8/7.5/12 scoring line on 59.2% shooting since joining Philadelphia will contend for leading the slate in scoring.

On the Bulls side of the ball, we have a decision to make between Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozan, if feeling the need for a run back option. At the time of writing, I prefer Lavine since a matchup versus James Harden and Tyrese Maxey is simply much better than DeRozan’s matchup versus Tobias Harris. Lavine, who has now scored 20 or more points in his last five games, is sporting a 28.2% usage rate in that span, where he has posted a 24.4/4.8/5.2 scoring line on 48.9% shooting. While DeRozan will likely score more raw points and fantasy points, the point/$ upside of Lavine on this NBA slate is hard to pass up.

LA Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs (-2)

While I am not expected a duplicate performance of his last versus the Warriors, LeBron James will 19 games left in this NBA season to salvage what’s left of it. Whether he plays the ‘5’, point, or just goes beast mode, LeBron has the advantage over everyone on the court tonight, where he sports a 33.9% usage rate with Anthony Davis out this season and has averaged 32.6/9/5.5 on 53.3% shooting.

If you’re going to this game for studs rather than the Chicago/Philadelphia game, there is no other option than to pair LeBron with Dejounte Murray, who is currently listed as questionable (calf). Should he be cleared for tonight’s tilt, it’s all systems go on the most underrated point guard in the NBA, whereby Murray gets a matchup versus a Lakers team that ranks 25th in scoring to opposing primary ball handlers, last in rebounding to opposing primary ball handlers, and last in assists to opposing primary ball handlers. All. Systems. Go.

NBA teams to target for value:

• Golden State Warriors (Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green, Payton, Iguodala OUT)
• Portland Trail Blazers (Bledsoe, Lillard, Nurkic, Winslow, Simons, Little, Ingles OUT)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

The story of tonight’s action in the NBA is the number of players that are sitting out for their respective teams. The Warriors and Trail Blazers will be awfully thin, while numerous players are already listed as questionable. While it is crucial to keep up with the news on any given NBA slate, tonight will be one like no other. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers (-7)

With the number of value plays available to us on this NBA slate, we’ll have the luxury of fitting any stud we want. Despite both Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic being elite options, there is no more competitive game environment on the slate than a tilt between two Eastern Conference heavyweights.

Hop on the James Harden train tonight because when it leaves the station, you’ll want to be onboard. Suffering a serious blow to their perimeter defense in the absence of Lonzo Ball, the Bulls will throw a combination of Zach Lavine and Ayo Dosunmu against the most prolific offensive player of this generation and, well, it’s not great, Bob. Respectively, Lavine and Dosunmu rank 15th and 23rd in the NBA in net individual defensive ratings this season amongst qualified players, whereby they both rank inside the bottom-10 amongst qualified starters. Harden, who has posted a 26.8/7.5/12 scoring line on 59.2% shooting since joining Philadelphia will contend for leading the slate in scoring.

On the Bulls side of the ball, we have a decision to make between Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozan, if feeling the need for a run back option. At the time of writing, I prefer Lavine since a matchup versus James Harden and Tyrese Maxey is simply much better than DeRozan’s matchup versus Tobias Harris. Lavine, who has now scored 20 or more points in his last five games, is sporting a 28.2% usage rate in that span, where he has posted a 24.4/4.8/5.2 scoring line on 48.9% shooting. While DeRozan will likely score more raw points and fantasy points, the point/$ upside of Lavine on this NBA slate is hard to pass up.

LA Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs (-2)

While I am not expected a duplicate performance of his last versus the Warriors, LeBron James will 19 games left in this NBA season to salvage what’s left of it. Whether he plays the ‘5’, point, or just goes beast mode, LeBron has the advantage over everyone on the court tonight, where he sports a 33.9% usage rate with Anthony Davis out this season and has averaged 32.6/9/5.5 on 53.3% shooting.

If you’re going to this game for studs rather than the Chicago/Philadelphia game, there is no other option than to pair LeBron with Dejounte Murray, who is currently listed as questionable (calf). Should he be cleared for tonight’s tilt, it’s all systems go on the most underrated point guard in the NBA, whereby Murray gets a matchup versus a Lakers team that ranks 25th in scoring to opposing primary ball handlers, last in rebounding to opposing primary ball handlers, and last in assists to opposing primary ball handlers. All. Systems. Go.

NBA teams to target for value:

• Golden State Warriors (Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green, Payton, Iguodala OUT)
• Portland Trail Blazers (Bledsoe, Lillard, Nurkic, Winslow, Simons, Little, Ingles OUT)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

Success in NBA DFS is contingent on your willingness to adapt to the news as it rolls in. Yesterday, we saw Jimmy Butler be ruled out for the Miami Heat, resulting in increased exposure to the likes of Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, and Bam Adebayo. While we will certainly see more of the same tonight, as we do on every NBA slate, there are already teams with players missing in action. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers (-7)

One of two marquee matchups between Eastern Conference heavyweights on tonight’s NBA schedule, the Cavaliers travel to Philadelphia to face James Harden, Joel Embiid, and the Philadelphia 76ers. Sitting 27th in pace for the duration of the NBA season, the new-look 76ers are tied for 9th in pace over their last three games since James Harden made his debut alongside Joel Embiid. This team is no longer milking the shot clock with Joel Embiid in the post; rather, James Harden has taken over this offense, similarly to what he wanted to do in Brooklyn before his departure. Facing a Cavaliers team that carries the fourth-most efficient defense in the league doesn’t exactly scream “dream matchup”, but Harden and Embiid are sporting 24.5% and 36.3% usage rates in their first three games together, respectively, while averaging 1.71 FPPM and 1.67 FPPM, respectively. The duo is simply outright dominant, and one will certainly be in all of my NBA lineups today.

On the flip side of the ball, the combination of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley will certainly have their hands full with Embiid in the post. However, it’s Darius Garland that gets a tremendous individual matchup versus a lackluster defender in James Harden. Sporting a 27.3% usage rate on the season, Garland is averaging a career-high 20.5/3.3/7.9 scoring line on 48% shooting, where he posted 33/3/4 in his lone game since the All-Star break following a two-game absence. While he is priced near his ceiling, Garland makes for a great tournament play on this NBA slate with legitimate 50-point upside.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ OKC Thunder (+8.5)

With numerous studs on this NBA slate, the firepower between two rebuilding teams may go overlooked. In the absence of Anthony Edwards (knee), Karl-Anthony Towns sees an increase in usage rate from 27.6% to 33%, including a lofty increase in FPPM, from 1.34 to 1.48. Additionally, in four games without Edwards this season, Towns has posted a 29.3/10/4.5 scoring line on 56.3% shooting, and now faces an OKC front court that ranks 27th versus true big men, including ranking 25th in rebounding, ranking last in both blocks per game allowed and rebounds allowed per game to opposing centers.

Should Josh Giddey (hip) sit this one out for OKC, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes for an intriguing tournament play on this NBA slate. Is he a 10.3K player? No, absolutely not. Is his sheer volume worthy of the tag? Absolutely. In the last three games with both Giddey and Dort out for the Thunder, SGA has posted a 34/7.3/6.7 scoring line on 55.6% shooting through a whopping 38.7% usage rate. Taking over 20 FGA per game in that span, the efficiency may dwindle down, but there’s no denying the fact that the volume that SGA will have tonight will contend for one of, if not the highest on the slate.

Honorable Mentions:

• Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards (+4.5)
• Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

Success in NBA DFS is contingent on your willingness to adapt to the news as it rolls in. Yesterday, we saw Jimmy Butler be ruled out for the Miami Heat, resulting in increased exposure to the likes of Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, and Bam Adebayo. While we will certainly see more of the same tonight, as we do on every NBA slate, there are already teams with players missing in action. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers (-7)

One of two marquee matchups between Eastern Conference heavyweights on tonight’s NBA schedule, the Cavaliers travel to Philadelphia to face James Harden, Joel Embiid, and the Philadelphia 76ers. Sitting 27th in pace for the duration of the NBA season, the new-look 76ers are tied for 9th in pace over their last three games since James Harden made his debut alongside Joel Embiid. This team is no longer milking the shot clock with Joel Embiid in the post; rather, James Harden has taken over this offense, similarly to what he wanted to do in Brooklyn before his departure. Facing a Cavaliers team that carries the fourth-most efficient defense in the league doesn’t exactly scream “dream matchup”, but Harden and Embiid are sporting 24.5% and 36.3% usage rates in their first three games together, respectively, while averaging 1.71 FPPM and 1.67 FPPM, respectively. The duo is simply outright dominant, and one will certainly be in all of my NBA lineups today.

On the flip side of the ball, the combination of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley will certainly have their hands full with Embiid in the post. However, it’s Darius Garland that gets a tremendous individual matchup versus a lackluster defender in James Harden. Sporting a 27.3% usage rate on the season, Garland is averaging a career-high 20.5/3.3/7.9 scoring line on 48% shooting, where he posted 33/3/4 in his lone game since the All-Star break following a two-game absence. While he is priced near his ceiling, Garland makes for a great tournament play on this NBA slate with legitimate 50-point upside.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ OKC Thunder (+8.5)

With numerous studs on this NBA slate, the firepower between two rebuilding teams may go overlooked. In the absence of Anthony Edwards (knee), Karl-Anthony Towns sees an increase in usage rate from 27.6% to 33%, including a lofty increase in FPPM, from 1.34 to 1.48. Additionally, in four games without Edwards this season, Towns has posted a 29.3/10/4.5 scoring line on 56.3% shooting, and now faces an OKC front court that ranks 27th versus true big men, including ranking 25th in rebounding, ranking last in both blocks per game allowed and rebounds allowed per game to opposing centers.

Should Josh Giddey (hip) sit this one out for OKC, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes for an intriguing tournament play on this NBA slate. Is he a 10.3K player? No, absolutely not. Is his sheer volume worthy of the tag? Absolutely. In the last three games with both Giddey and Dort out for the Thunder, SGA has posted a 34/7.3/6.7 scoring line on 55.6% shooting through a whopping 38.7% usage rate. Taking over 20 FGA per game in that span, the efficiency may dwindle down, but there’s no denying the fact that the volume that SGA will have tonight will contend for one of, if not the highest on the slate.

Honorable Mentions:

• Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards (+4.5)
• Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

This. Is. March. All eyes with turn to the madness in college basketball as we near my favorite event in sports, but there is still plenty of action to be had in the NBA as well. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors (-8.5)

While most ignored this game on yesterday’s NBA slate until Fred VanVleet was eventually ruled out with the predicted knee soreness, we were all over it from the beginning. I see no reason to dodge it now on the second half of a back-to-back, but I do believe VanVleet makes his return to the lineup tonight, barring any setbacks at morning shootaround. Nonetheless, the trio of VanVleet/Siakam/Barnes remain underpriced on both sites tonight, with the latter two flashing their defensive upside versus a turnover prone Brooklyn offense that can be exposed in transition.

Similarly to what I preached on yesterday’s NBA slate, I am not forcing a run back with my Toronto exposure. In the end, it worked out beautifully, as the Nets simply could not keep up in a 36-point losing effort. However, the trio of Bruce Brown, Cam Thomas, and Patty Mills would be my choices, if going there. Specifically, Mills is somewhat that can be ice cold from the field and has a low floor when it comes to DFS production, but if you want to beat Toronto’s zone, it’s with perimeter shooting. The Nets shot a disastrous 38% from the field last night, including 34% from deep, where Mills went 1-8 from the field and 1-6 from deep, but if he heats up, it could lead to him being a key factor on this slate.

LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets (+7)

The third meeting between these two teams in as many days should be no different from the previous two: fast, turnovers, little-to-no defense. It’s exactly what we want in NBA DFS, and this game will have plenty of it.

With Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Norman Powell all out for the Clippers, there are a ton of touches to go around on offense. While we are potentially looking at 8-9 players getting 15+ minutes for the Clippers tonight, their ceilings remain low, but it’s all about getting exposure to the right ones: Reggie Jackson leads the charge on offense with a 31% usage rate in the absence of George, Leonard, and Powell, but I can’t stomach an $8,200 tag for him; the duo of Terance Mann and Luke Kennard are streaky, but I give them the edge over veterans like Batum and Covington.

On the Rockets side of the ball, the status of Kevin Porter Jr. remains key to our Houston exposure. Should he be in, he’s a great fit at an affordable tag with a 23.5% usage rate this season. Should he be ruled out, one of, if not the highest rostered player on this NBA slate will be none other than Dennis Schroder, who has a 23.1% usage rate in three starts for the Rockets this season, where he’s posted a 14.3/5.7/9.3 scoring line on 33.3% shooting. Elsewhere, despite his struggles versus the Clippers this season, Christian Wood is in a good spot versus an LA team that ranks 25th in points allowed in the paint per game.

Honorable Mentions:

• Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves (+1)
• Dallas Mavericks @ LA Lakers (+5.5)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

In today’s NBA action, a few teams are on the second half of a back-to-back, while others are dealing with short rotations in the last stretch of the season. Every game counts with playoff seeding and positions on the line, and tonight’s games are loaded with some of the best stars in the league. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets (+3.5)

Don’t let Toronto’s last two games distract you from the fact that they are in one of the best game environments on this NBA slate. The trio of VanVleet, Siakam, and Barnes are all wildly underpriced tonight, whereby Gary Trent Jr. becomes an elite target should VanVleet sit this one out with knee soreness. With Brooklyn sitting 11th in pace and 21st in defensive rating, the absence of Kyrie Irving at home will put this offense in a vulnerable position against Toronto’s zone defense, where the Raptors will thrive in transition.

On the Nets side of the ball, Seth Curry will take the reigns as the primary ball handler tonight, where he has sported a 24.2% usage rate and has a 1.03 FPPM in a 100+ minute sample size thus far. The Nets will be limited with offensive options in the absence of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, and while both Bruce Brown and Cam Thomas make for intriguing targets, I’m not forcing a back and forth in this game, rather, I’m prioritizing underpriced Raptors.

Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat (-4.5)

Despite having a lofty 225.5 total, this game has the third lowest total on the board, but it should not be flying under the radar as it is right now. While it’d be easy for me to explain how much exposure we need to the track meet that is Charlotte @ Milwaukee, truthfully, there will be so many players rostered in that game that this Chicago/Miami game takes precedence for me. The key? Key usage amongst the star players in it – one of the most importance factors in NBA DFS.

What’s to say about DeMar DeRozan with a fourth of the NBA season left to go? The Bulls’ MVP now has 30+ points in ten straight games, where he’s sported a 36.4% usage rate and has posted a ridiculous 36.9/5.8/5.2 scoring line on 56.6% shooting. While most will flock to Giannis Antetokounmpo in the best game environment on the slate, there is a discussion to be had here since you can grab value pieces in that one, while you cannot do the opposite for this game.

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have a ton to offer tonight as well and you know exactly where the production is coming from; not only from the Heat, but from this game entirely. With Kyle Lowry (personal) out tonight, Jimmy Butler will be a prime target at a coveted position in NBA DFS, while Tyler Herro, who leads the Heat in usage rate this season despite coming off the bench, will be crucial as a primary ball handler against a Bulls perimeter defense that is still missing Lonzo Ball. If you need value, look for a combination of Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin (achilles) to earn extra playing time.

Honorable Mentions:

• Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks (-10)
• San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies (-8.5)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

The second NBA slate following the All-Star break is certainly filled with interesting storylines: James Harden makes his Philadelphia debut, Devin Booker leading the Suns after last night’s victory, and the battle of LA all will be of interest tonight. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets (+2.5)

If you did not know this one was coming, now you do – the other two times the Raptors and Hornets have faced off this season, it was the game I wanted the most exposure to, and tonight is certainly no different. With the Hornets ranking 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating, their games are always elite targets on any NBA DFS slate, and the Raptors’ tight rotation only makes things more interesting.

Sporting a 25.1% usage rate on the season, Pascal Siakam will be the first player in any NBA lineup for me tonight. He has posted a 21.9/8.7/5.2 scoring line on the year on 49.5% shooting, and gets the best matchup of the Raptors versus a Hornets front court that ranks 27th in the NBA. In two previous meeting versus the Hornets this season, Siakam has averaged a 24/10/10 triple-double through a 22.7% usage rate.

The return of Cody Martin to the Hornets lineup does not impact touches, but he will log a heavy dose of minutes, pending any news of a restriction in his first game back. With Gordan Hayward (ankle) still out for the Hornets, look for LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Miles Bridges to round out the bulk of the minutes tonight, with the trio of PJ Washington, Montrezl Harrell, and Kelly Oubre Jr. logging decent time off the bench. Against Toronto’s zone defense, Terry Rozier and Kelly Oubre Jr. remain my preferred targets over someone like LaMelo Ball.

LA Clippers @ LA Lakers (-1)

The battle of LA is one to keep on our shortlist tonight, not only because Anthony Davis (ankle) remains sidelined, but because we have an underpriced LeBron James coming out of the All-Star game. In 20 games without Davis this season, LeBron carries a 33.6% usage rate, which is a 2.2% increase on his season average, whereby James has posted a 32.7/9/6 scoring line on 53.6% shooting. Whether he plays the ‘5’ versus a small Clippers lineup, or mans the point, LeBron is an anchor for my NBA lineups tonight.

The Clippers will be an interesting team to target in the last fourth of the NBA season given the injuries to both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Rather than going in the mid range of the pricing grid with Reggie Jackson or Marcus Morris, I prefer the combination of Terance Mann and Luke Kennard, both of which will get extended run versus any combination of Lakers lineup, considering the favorites are likely going to roll out smaller lineups rather than a combination of Dwight Howard and/or DeAndre Jordan in the absence of Anthony Davis.

Honorable Mentions:

• San Antonio Spurs @ Washington Wizards (+3)
• New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns (-7.5)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

Only a few days are left before the NBA All-Star break and tonight’s matchups are filled with enticing targets. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Charlotte Hornets @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-6.5)

A game featuring two of the league’s three fastest teams with a marquee matchup between two of the best players in the 2020 NBA draft? Yes, please. Tonight’s contest between the Hornets and the Timberwolves will be a must for me tonight: the Hornets lead the league in pace while Minnesota ranks third coming, while the former also struggles on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 24th in defensive rating. With Gordon Hayward (ankle) and Cody Martin (achilles) still out for the Hornets, not only are we attacking the best game environment on the NBA slate, but we also get an 8-person rotation within it.

LaMelo Ball will be a building block in my NBA lineups tonight, where the sophomore is sporting a 29.4% usage rate in February, only seeing less than 30 minutes in a single game, where the Hornets got blown out by Miami. He’s averaged over 18 FGA per contest in that span as well, shooting 44.5% from the field and 46.4% from behind the arc on eight attempts per night, while posting a 24.1/5.7/6.1 scoring line. Should you want to go elsewhere with your studs, or rather build with more players in the mid range of the pricing grid, Terry Rozier draws a favorable matchup against D’Angelo Russell, while also having posted a triple-double and a 35/10/9 scoring line in his last two games, in addition to Kelly Oubre Jr. seeing an increase in offensive responsibility on the wing. The Hornet that will go overlooked will be newly acquired Montrezl Harrell, who, along with PJ Washington, could see extended run considering Mason Plumlee will be in tough versus Karl-Anthony Towns.

On the flip side of this one, Karl-Anthony Towns finds himself in one of my favorite matchups to attack in NBA DFS: bigs against Charlotte. However, with usage often being flanked to the wings and D’Angelo Russell, I might go elsewhere tonight considering the lofty price tag. While I expect the majority of the field to game log chase with Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell will be an interesting target for tournaments tonight: the former Ohio State guard has scored in double digits in every one of his five games this month, where three of which also resulted in 20 or more points; sporting a 26.8% usage rate in that span, DLo has posted a 21.2/2.6/6.8 scoring line on 46.3% shooting. While Patrick Beverley is a safe player in the mid range, you know the entire Timberwolves offense funnels through Towns, Edwards, and Russell.

Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Pelicans (+4)

Fresh off their 30-point rout of the Toronto Raptors, the Pelicans are hosting one of the league’s best teams in their second half of a back-to-back. The big news here for Memphis is that Ja Morant (ankle) is a GTD despite playing in their last game. We’ll obviously have to wait to see what his status is, but should Morant be a no-go tonight, Desmond Bane is an immediate priority, seeing a 2.4% increase in usage rate and an FPPM increase from 1.03 to 1.15 with Morant off the court. Whether Morant plays or not, I will have exposure to a Memphis offense that takes on a Pelicans team that has a 115.5 net defensive rating in their three games since acquiring CJ McCollum, which would have them ranked 29th in the NBA, ahead of only the Houston Rockets.

On the Pelicans side of the ball, the trio of McCollum, Ingram, and Valanciunas are all close to one another on the pricing grid, but I favor the Pelicans’ newest addition. McCollum is sporting a 29.4% usage rate since his arrival, which not only leads the team, but is also 5% higher than the next qualified player, Brandon Ingram. In addition, McCollum also leads the team in scoring since his arrival, being the only player to average over 20 PPG with 24.7 PPG, while also leading the team in assists and being second in rebounding behind only Valanciunas. This is now McCollum’s offense in New Orleans, and with the Grizzlies ranking 20th in the NBA to opposing primary ball handlers, he’s a tremendous target in the mid range of the pricing grid in an elite game environment.

Honorable Mentions:

• Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks (-12)
• Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks (+2)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

With the NFL season coming to an end, all eyes will be on the NBA before baseball season begins. Thus, we not only have a ton of contests at our disposal, but also some great games to go with it. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Sacramento Kings @ Brooklyn Nets (+4)

The new-look Kings travel to Brooklyn as road favorite in this one, and rightfully so. The Brooklyn Nets, fresh off having dealt one of their Big 3 in James Harden to the 76ers for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond, will certainly be in tough in the absence of Kyrie Irving tonight. However, this does open up their offense quite a bit, especially when no player is above $5,700 on DraftKings. While Cam Thomas has been rolling as of late with 17 or more points in his last five, including four games of 20+ points, this offense belongs to Seth Curry tonight, who will certainly see an uptick in opportunity versus what he saw in Philadelphia alongside Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Tyrese Maxey. Expect to see an increase to his assist rate and shooting opportunities, while Andre Drummond is wildly underpriced – if Steve Nash decides to run a bigger lineup than what he is accustomed to, but know that both LaMarcus Aldridge and Nic Claxton are scheduled to be active tonight as well in a crowded frontcourt. While this offense is far from a guarantee to run as it should, there is no doubt that the Nets are one of the teams to attack on tonight’s NBA slate.

On the flip side of this one, the combination of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis will do work against a weak Nets defensive unit. In two games since the blockbuster deal, which saw Tyrese Haliburton head to Indiana, Sabonis and Fox have usage rates of 23.5% and 28.9%, respectively, while the two have combined for 45.5 PPG. While the Sacramento bench is somewhat appealing if you decide to go elsewhere with your studs on this NBA slate, it got a lot deeper with the returns of Maurice Harkless and Donte DiVincenzo, in addition to rookie Davion Mitchell.

San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls (-5.5)

With Zach Lavine (knee) scheduled to miss the Bulls’ remaining games until the All-Star break, we’re going back to the well with the combination of DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic. While the latter is one of my favorite players to target in NBA DFS considering how underrated he is on a nightly basis, the former is just on an undeniable run right now: DeRozan now has 30 or more points in six straight games for Chicago, where he’s sported a 37.7% usage rate and has posted a ridiculous 37.2/6/5.5 scoring line on 56.8% shooting. Of course, know that you’re largely committing the success of your NBA lineups on one game if you follow this route, but it’s one that I am more than okay with, not only because of DeRozan, but because of who you can run it back with on the other side: Dejounte Murray. Since Derrick White was traded to the Celtics in a surprising move, Murray has posted back-to-back 30-point games, where he’s also triple-doubled once and has averaged 31.5/8.5/13.5 on 60% shooting, while taking 20 FGA per night through a 31.1% usage rate. Facing a Bulls defense that has been lackluster on the perimeter in the absence of Lonzo Ball (knee), his price tag is lofty on such a big NBA slate, but there is no denying the upside Murray carries every time he takes the court.

Honorable Mentions:

• Toronto Raptors @ New Orleans Pelicans (+5)
• Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers (+6.5)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life