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NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/15

Only a few days are left before the NBA All-Star break and tonight’s matchups are filled with enticing targets. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Charlotte Hornets @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-6.5)

A game featuring two of the league’s three fastest teams with a marquee matchup between two of the best players in the 2020 NBA draft? Yes, please. Tonight’s contest between the Hornets and the Timberwolves will be a must for me tonight: the Hornets lead the league in pace while Minnesota ranks third coming, while the former also struggles on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 24th in defensive rating. With Gordon Hayward (ankle) and Cody Martin (achilles) still out for the Hornets, not only are we attacking the best game environment on the NBA slate, but we also get an 8-person rotation within it.

LaMelo Ball will be a building block in my NBA lineups tonight, where the sophomore is sporting a 29.4% usage rate in February, only seeing less than 30 minutes in a single game, where the Hornets got blown out by Miami. He’s averaged over 18 FGA per contest in that span as well, shooting 44.5% from the field and 46.4% from behind the arc on eight attempts per night, while posting a 24.1/5.7/6.1 scoring line. Should you want to go elsewhere with your studs, or rather build with more players in the mid range of the pricing grid, Terry Rozier draws a favorable matchup against D’Angelo Russell, while also having posted a triple-double and a 35/10/9 scoring line in his last two games, in addition to Kelly Oubre Jr. seeing an increase in offensive responsibility on the wing. The Hornet that will go overlooked will be newly acquired Montrezl Harrell, who, along with PJ Washington, could see extended run considering Mason Plumlee will be in tough versus Karl-Anthony Towns.

On the flip side of this one, Karl-Anthony Towns finds himself in one of my favorite matchups to attack in NBA DFS: bigs against Charlotte. However, with usage often being flanked to the wings and D’Angelo Russell, I might go elsewhere tonight considering the lofty price tag. While I expect the majority of the field to game log chase with Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell will be an interesting target for tournaments tonight: the former Ohio State guard has scored in double digits in every one of his five games this month, where three of which also resulted in 20 or more points; sporting a 26.8% usage rate in that span, DLo has posted a 21.2/2.6/6.8 scoring line on 46.3% shooting. While Patrick Beverley is a safe player in the mid range, you know the entire Timberwolves offense funnels through Towns, Edwards, and Russell.

Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Pelicans (+4)

Fresh off their 30-point rout of the Toronto Raptors, the Pelicans are hosting one of the league’s best teams in their second half of a back-to-back. The big news here for Memphis is that Ja Morant (ankle) is a GTD despite playing in their last game. We’ll obviously have to wait to see what his status is, but should Morant be a no-go tonight, Desmond Bane is an immediate priority, seeing a 2.4% increase in usage rate and an FPPM increase from 1.03 to 1.15 with Morant off the court. Whether Morant plays or not, I will have exposure to a Memphis offense that takes on a Pelicans team that has a 115.5 net defensive rating in their three games since acquiring CJ McCollum, which would have them ranked 29th in the NBA, ahead of only the Houston Rockets.

On the Pelicans side of the ball, the trio of McCollum, Ingram, and Valanciunas are all close to one another on the pricing grid, but I favor the Pelicans’ newest addition. McCollum is sporting a 29.4% usage rate since his arrival, which not only leads the team, but is also 5% higher than the next qualified player, Brandon Ingram. In addition, McCollum also leads the team in scoring since his arrival, being the only player to average over 20 PPG with 24.7 PPG, while also leading the team in assists and being second in rebounding behind only Valanciunas. This is now McCollum’s offense in New Orleans, and with the Grizzlies ranking 20th in the NBA to opposing primary ball handlers, he’s a tremendous target in the mid range of the pricing grid in an elite game environment.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks (-12)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks (+2)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

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