NFL Week 7 left us with more injuries and more questions. Could this be the week to stash Kyler Murray? Julia Papworth is here to break down ownership percentages and strategies for adding players to your team!
Make sure to keep it locked in every Tuesday for her gems and follow her on socials (@juliapapworth) for all her great content.
Gloeck (@dgloeck) and Schreck (@draftmasterflex) are live on a Saturday Morning to breakdown the Week 8 #CFB #DFS lineups. It’s a big day in College Football as Penn State and Ohio State battle in a matchup of top 10 teams. And Tennessee visits Alabama for a big matchup in the SEC West. We look at those games and all others on this busy 12 game slate for October 21st, 2023.
Gloeck (@dgloeck) and Schrek (@draftmasterflex) are back on a Friday Night to help you set your #CFB #dfs lineups for Week 7.
While previous years have had some noticeable mismatches in the early stages of the NBA Playoffs, this year’s series’ all seem to be can’t-miss television. Not only is each 7-game series looking to be exciting, rather, we also have the luxury of seeing one of the best players in the league take the court, no matter which teams are in action. We’ll break down the four matchups in the Eastern Conference, with a few surprises to come along the way.
With the Play-In tournament now over, a friendly reminder to utilize the tools that we have to promote success in NBA DFS:
No major surprises came in the Play-In tournament, but here’s a look at the updated NBA Playoffs bracket:
With Milwaukee, Brooklyn, and Boston earning most of the conversation around the Eastern Conference, the field is once again underestimating this Heat squad. Finishing first in the weaker of two conferences is no small task, especially when Miami was missing Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Kyle Lowry for different portions of the NBA season.
On most NBA slates, this team will be undervalued. The contributions can come from the four players listed above, in addition to Duncan Robinson and his three-point shooting, in as balanced of an offense as we’ll see in these Playoffs. Atlanta finished 19th in the league in points allowed in the paint, and will now be without Clint Capela for the early stages of the series. This bodes well for the combination of Butler and Adebayo, where the Hawks’ 113.7 defensive rating, good for 26th in the league, will be exposed. In addition, Trae Young graded out as the league’s second-worst defender amongst qualifying players, making ball handlers such as Lowry and Herro, who had a career season off the bench, awfully enticing.
In the absence of Clint Capela, the duo of Onyeka Okongwu and Danilo Gallinari will be tasked with manning the paint against Bam Adebayo. The former will be popular on NBA slates where Capela sits out, despite John Collins (finger) making his return in an “attempt to play through it”. However, the Hawks will only go as far as Trae Young can take them. With Miami ranking first in the NBA in points allowed in the paint, they defend the pick-and-roll awfully well, which is where Young excels at getting teammates involved. Moreover, Miami’s stout perimeter defense in the form of Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, and PJ Tucker will make things difficult for Young to not only create for others, but for himself. As talented as the Hawks are, this won’t be a long series for them, but it surely will feel like one.
The Pick: Miami Heat in 5
As one of the hottest teams in the 2022 calendar year, the Celtics come into this year’s Playoffs with high expectations. Unfortunately, they landed arguably the worst matchup a team could have hoped for when looking at the potential results of the Play-In tournament.
In the absence of Robert Williams, the Celtics will be tasked to defend the interior as a unit. Marcus Smart will presumably take on the responsibility to guard Kyrie Irving every night, but who is supposed to guard Kevin Durant? Rather, who is supposed to attempt to guard him? Sure, I am higher on Jayson Tatum than most when it comes to his defensive upside, but to ask him to guard KD for 40+ minutes in a series and lead the charge on offense is simply unrealistic. Can Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and the bench shoulder the load if Tatum has an off night? There are simply too many questions surrounding this team, and with the Nets rolling in with momentum from the Play-In victory, this one smells like a disappointing postseason for the Celtics.
A season of turmoil that involved James Harden requesting a trade and winding up in the Play-In tournament, the Nets now have a chance to show that they can still contend. Star power is the name of the game come Playoffs, and while the Nets’ bench and defensive liabilities can hold them back, there is no denying that the duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is one of the best in the NBA Playoffs. What we saw in the Play-In game is exactly what to expect, and what the Nets will need, for them to make it out of this series. The two stars combined for 59/8/23, were +18, and logged over 41 minutes each.
Otherwise, there is some exposure to Brooklyn that can you get across various NBA slates, but I’d be wary with a player like Seth Curry considering all the volume that the KD/Kyrie combination soaks up. Bruce Brown will continue to log heavy minutes, while the paint will be manned by Andre Drummond and Nic Claxton, depending on the matchup. We may see more Claxton this series because of Boston’s lack of interior presence in the absence of Robert Williams. While there are question marks on both sides of this series, I’ll take the star power of Durant/Irving over that of Tatum/Brown.
The Pick: Brooklyn Nets in 6
The defending NBA Champions will not be an easy out this postseason. While Khris Middleton often gets praise for his secondary scoring next to yearly MVP candidate, Giannis Antetokounmpo, it’s the two-way Jrue Holiday that propels this team to the next level. Similarly to Joel Embiid, Giannis will be a focal point on every NBA slate that Milwaukee finds itself apart of.
We know what the trio of Antetokounmpo, Holiday, and Holiday bring on a nightly basis, but is there any value in the rest of this rotation? In the early stages of the Playoffs, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Pat Connaughton could present value, depending on how the game script falls in games 1 and 2. Truth be told, this series should go smoothly for the defending Champions, and as much as I want to say there’s value to be had here, there is not much to mention when Giannis dominates so much of the offensive upside of this team.
Despite having an Eastern Conference best 31-18 record at the end of the calendar year this season, the Bulls fell off in the second half of the season. Health issues were a big part of that, and they will still be without Lonzo Ball for their playoff run. The trio of DeMar DeRozan, Zach Lavine, and Nikola Vucevic can still carry this team, but they will be in for a tough matchup in the opening round, taking on the defending NBA Champions.
Whenever Chicago finds themselves on an NBA slate on this playoff run, I’ll have interest in the duo of DeMar DeRozan and Zach Lavine. The two combined for over 52 PPG, which is nearly as much as the rest of the playoff rotation combined. However, the defensive matchups of Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo are far from friendly. Two players that could pick up steam throughout the series, depending on their price points, are Coby White and Patrick Williams. The former has an excellent perimeter shot, where the Bucks ranked last in the NBA with 14.5 3PM allowed per night. Moreover, the latter had a tremendous end to the season after coming back from injury, ending the year having scored in double digits in five of his last six games, posting a 15.8/6.2/1.5 scoring line on 57.4% shooting over nearly 32 MPG.
The Pick: Milwaukee Bucks in 5
The clock is ticking on Philadelphia’s championship window. This season, with the acquisition of James Harden, Philadelphia looks poised to make a deeper run than last year’s controversial exit, but the Raptors are no pushover in the opening round. However, even with Harden in the fold, this team will only go as far as Joel Embiid can take them. In this particular matchup, Embiid will be a force to be reckoned with, considering the Raptors are undersized on the inside. Sporting a 36.9% usage rate on the year, the MVP candidate posted a 30.6/11.7/4.2 scoring line on 49.9% shooting, where his numbers remained true with Harden in the lineup. The two stars have played 21 games together now, and Embiid has posted a 33.1/12.7/3.6 scoring line on 51.6% shooting through a 37.5% usage rate.
James Harden failed to record a single 40-point game this NBA season, which is truly baffling. However, he remains as dominant as ever on the offensive side of the ball. His three-point shooting will be key to beating Toronto’s stout zone defense, especially with the trio of VanVleet, Trent Jr., and Barnes on the perimeter. His playmaking surely benefits the likes of Tobias Harris, and the duo of Georges Niang and Furkan Korkmaz, who will have to step up in the absence of Matisse Thybulle when the series shifts to Toronto. Few value plays will interest me on the 76ers side of the ball, whereas Joel Embiid will be a local point in nearly, if not every NBA slate that has Philadelphia/Toronto on it.
A familiar foe in Philadelphia, the last time these two teams met in the NBA Playoffs was when Kawhi Leonard hit a ridiculous buzzer beater in Game 7 of the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Now, the Raptors come into this one as a 5 seed after labelling this season as a rebuild. The emergence of Scottie Barnes has been a big factor in the team’s success, along with the stability of franchise cornerstones, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam, in addition to Gary Trent Jr.‘s perimeter offense.
No surprises should come when I say this: Nick Nurse does not believe in a bench. Not in a regular season game in January against the Rockets, and surely not in the NBA Playoffs. The quartet of VanVleet, Siakam, Barnes, and Trent Jr. will get the bulk of the minutes here, with a combination of Khem Birch and Precious Achiuawa at the ‘5’. The latter offers tremendous length on the defensive side of the ball, which could make him a sneaky play for NBA slates in the opening round, but I’d try to stick to the core four Raptors here on a nightly basis.
The Pick: Philadelphia 76ers in 7
You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life
The NCAA season came to a close with Kansas cutting down the nets, but now, it’s time for the NBA Playoffs and baseball. The action kicks off on Taco Tuesday with the first two Play-In matchups, while the other two will take place on Wednesday night. Two teams stand out above the rest in the four combined games, but they have to make it out of the Play-In first, making the Playoffs as good as it can be.
The NBA Playoffs have arrived, but the strategy remains the same. Be sure to utilize the tools, as you have been all season long:
If you have not been following the NBA’s new playoff format in recent years, the image below will explain how the new seeding works. Essentially, the former 1-8 seeding in both the Eastern and Western Conferences has been modified to allow the 9th and 10th seeds a chance to get into the Playoffs.
A preseason favorite for the NBA title, the Brooklyn Nets now find themselves in the Play-In tournament amidst a season of turmoil. Gone is James Harden, in are Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond, and this Nets team is now turning to its stars even more than anticipated. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have had their fair share of adversity, dealing with season-long injuries to Collin Sexton and mid-season acquisition Ricky Rubio, only to acquire Caris LeVert from the Pacers as their third secondary ball handler next to Most Improved Player (MIP) candidate, Darius Garland.
The combination of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will certainly dictate how far the Nets go, while contributions from a supporting cast of Andre Drummond, Seth Curry, Bruce Brown, and Patty Mills will be crucial in its own right before the possible return of Ben Simmons. As much as I want to play Kevin Durant on this NBA slate, it’s simply not doable on DK with my top priority coming in this next game. However, Kyrie Irving is certainly enticing at a respectable tag, coming into this one having taken 20 or more shots in six straight games while posting a 29.2/4.8/6.2 scoring line on 44.5% shooting, including 4.5 3PM per contest, through a 28.9% usage rate.
The Cavaliers are surprisingly deep on offense, but they clearly run through Darius Garland. Leading the Cavaliers in both scoring and assists, Garland posted a career-high 21.6 PPG and 8.6 APG, being the sole player on the team to average over 20 PPG. However, his price point is tough to get to on DK, but there is some interest in some of his teammates. Cleveland suffered a major blow with the loss of Jarrett Allen (finger) for tonight, meaning rookie Evan Mobley will be tasked with heavy minutes in the front court. Moreover, the combination of Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen will be crucial off the bench and on the wing, respectively, while Caris LeVert makes for an intriguing play in the mid range. If you need a guard over a forward/center, LeVert is your preferred option here, but Mobley stands out above the rest.
The Pick: Brooklyn Nets win (ML), but Cleveland covers the spread (+8.5)
The trio of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell look to make a mark in this year’s playoffs, should they make it there. The three have near identical usage rates on the season, at 27.7%, 26.4%, and 25.1%, respectively, while also combining for over 48 FGA per night. I can’t stomach playing any of the three, despite Towns being in a great matchup versus a Clippers front court that ranked 25th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game. The reason for this is that Edwards often goes hero ball in the clutch, which we can’t afford on such a small slate. Rather, I’ll get exposure to the better of the two games in Patrick Beverley, who faces his former team and always shows up for the big games; no statistics for this play, simply watch him and you’ll know why he’s needed.
I am high on the Clippers potentially entering the NBA Playoffs as a 7-seed, and there are multiple reasons why. Sporting a 6-1 record sine Paul George returned to the lineup, the Clippers not only have the league’s best offense in that span, but they also have a rested group of veterans that have proven to win in April. Adam will be breaking down the matchups in the Western Conference once the Play-In is finalized, but should Kawhi Leonard make his return, I’ll be taking the Clippers to upset the Grizzlies in the opening round, should they win tonight.
While the combination of Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, and Nic Batum is defensively saavy and can shoot the ‘3’, the Clippers bench is just as impressive, with the trio of Norman Powell, Terance Mann, and Luke Kennard providing quite the offensive punch. Not of this matters without Paul George, who sports a 32.4% usage rate in the five games he’s played since his return, posting a 22.6/5.6/6.8 scoring line on 42.5% shooting. There is not a single NBA lineup I’d recommend making without George, but if you are, be sure to get a combination of the players listed above.
The Pick: Not only do the Clippers cover the spread (+3), but they win outright (ML)
While the Hornets do boast a decent offense, star power reigns true in the NBA Playoffs. Trae Young will be without his main pick-and-roll man in John Collins (finger) tonight, but it won’t stop one of the best primary ball handlers from taking over this game. Charlotte finished the regular season ranking 5th in pace while also being 22nd in defensive rating, which is right up Young’s alley. The face of the Hawks franchise led the league in total points and assists this year, and he’s set to build on last year’s playoff run. Look for Clint Capela to dominate a Hornets interior that ranked 24th in scoring to opposing big men, while also being 26th in rebounding. Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, Danilo Gallinari, and Bogdan Bogdanovic will all round out the bulk of the minutes for the Hawks’ rotation tonight, while Onyeka Okongwu will sub in for Capela.
The Hornets need a big man to get over the hump, but tonight, they’ll be relying on the trio of LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Miles Bridges to get the job done. With little to no viable value plays in the NBA Playoffs, Ball takes a backseat to Young and Murray for me tonight, but I will get exposure to this offense in the form of Rozier and/or Bridges. This rotation is deep, not with talent, but with options. I recommend sticking to these three rather than taking a shot on the likes of PJ Washington, Montrezl Harrel, Cody Martin, or Kelly Oubre Jr.
The Pelicans bleed fantasy points to opposing primary ball handlers, and Dejounte Murray is set to shine in this contest. Leading the NBA in steals with two per game, Murray also improved his scoring, rebounding, and playmaking, averaging 21.1/8.3/9.2 on 46.2% shooting for the season. If the Spurs stand a chance tonight, it’s because Murray took this one over.
The Pelicans’ prized acquisition, CJ McCollum, will certainly be running the offense tonight, but the builds he gives us with one of Trae Young or Dejounte Murray are simply not viable. Rather, I have interest in Jonas Valanciunas, who gets a friendly matchup versus a Spurs interior that ranks 29th in the NBA in both scoring in rebounding to opposing true big men. The trio of McCollum, Ingram, and Valanciunas will log the bulk of the minutes here, with Jaxson Hayes, Herbert Jones, Devonte’ Graham, Naji Marshall, and Jose Alvarado rounding out the rotation. Few value plays interest me here with such condensed usage in the top three options for the Pelicans; turn to Atlanta and Charlotte if you are taking shots in tournaments.
You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life
In one of the last slates of the NBA season before playoffs begin, there are two matchups that hold importance, while the rest are a battle of the tankathons. There will be plenty of opportunity for value plays to appear throughout the day, so be sure to keep up with the news amongst the second day of action in the MLB. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
Despite it being the end of the NBA season, and smaller slates are incoming with the Playoffs, don’t forget to utilize the tools on a daily basis:
This game, along with the next one, can dictate how the Play-In round shakes out in the East. The Cavaliers, Nets, and Hawks are all within one game of each other, which will be the deciding factor between who lands in the 7, 8, and 9 seeds. Needless to say, both teams need this win. With few studs to play on this NBA slate, one of Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving needs to be in your NBA lineups. While Durant carries more upside, Irving has been leading the duo in shot attempts, while also logging over 40 minutes per game in six straight games and seven of his last eight.
While Darius Garland is one of the highest priced players on this NBA slate, he is worth the tag. Few players have incentives to show out tonight, but Garland isn’t one of them. Leading the charge on offense, Garland gets his best pick-and-roll option back tonight in Evan Mobley to maximize the playmaking ability that he has against this Brooklyn defense.
Similarly to the Cavaliers and Nets, the Hawks need this win for the Play-In tournament seeding. However, Miami has now clinched the conference with Boston’s loss yesterday, meaning some players might be sitting for the Heat. Either way, Trae Young makes for an extraordinary play on this NBA slate, as he comes into this one with three 30-point efforts in his last four games, including three double-doubles, where he’s sported a 34.9% usage rate and has posted a 30.5/3.5/11.3 scoring line on 45.7% shooting. I’d also jump on the Hawks ML while you can, because injury/rest news is bound to come in on the Miami side of the ball.
You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life
In one of the last slates of the NBA season before playoffs begin, there are two matchups that hold importance, while the rest are a battle of the tankathons. There will be plenty of opportunity for value plays to appear throughout the day, so be sure to keep up with the news amongst the second day of action in the MLB. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
Despite it being the end of the NBA season, and smaller slates are incoming with the Playoffs, don’t forget to utilize the tools on a daily basis:
This game, along with the next one, can dictate how the Play-In round shakes out in the East. The Cavaliers, Nets, and Hawks are all within one game of each other, which will be the deciding factor between who lands in the 7, 8, and 9 seeds. Needless to say, both teams need this win. With few studs to play on this NBA slate, one of Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving needs to be in your NBA lineups. While Durant carries more upside, Irving has been leading the duo in shot attempts, while also logging over 40 minutes per game in six straight games and seven of his last eight.
While Darius Garland is one of the highest priced players on this NBA slate, he is worth the tag. Few players have incentives to show out tonight, but Garland isn’t one of them. Leading the charge on offense, Garland gets his best pick-and-roll option back tonight in Evan Mobley to maximize the playmaking ability that he has against this Brooklyn defense.
Similarly to the Cavaliers and Nets, the Hawks need this win for the Play-In tournament seeding. However, Miami has now clinched the conference with Boston’s loss yesterday, meaning some players might be sitting for the Heat. Either way, Trae Young makes for an extraordinary play on this NBA slate, as he comes into this one with three 30-point efforts in his last four games, including three double-doubles, where he’s sported a 34.9% usage rate and has posted a 30.5/3.5/11.3 scoring line on 45.7% shooting. I’d also jump on the Hawks ML while you can, because injury/rest news is bound to come in on the Miami side of the ball.
You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life
In the last week of the NBA season, the DFS landscape is truly like no other sport. Teams are currently battling for a playoff spot in the West, while others jockey for positioning in the East; and of course, a mix of teams are currently doing everything in their power to improve their draft positioning, as well. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Despite San Antonio star Dejounte Murray missing this game with a serious illness, all eyes will be on the current MVP favorite, Nikola Jokic. Truth be told, even without Murray, the Spurs pose a threat to a Nuggets team that barely squeaked by the likes of OKC and Indiana in their recent stretch. Jokic comes into this one having posted 30 or more points in four of his last five games, sporting a 33.8% usage rate during that span and averaging 34.8/16.2/8.4 on 70.2% shooting. Decent numbers, if I do say so myself.
Want to get weird on this NBA slate? Let’s get weird. Pairing the league’s two best centers on the same slate to maximize raw points and ceiling in tournaments in certainly worth entertaining tonight, especially with Embiid chasing an MVP award that seems out of reach. Sure, Indiana is rebuilding, but Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers can certainly play spoiler in this one, as they almost did versus the Nuggets last week. Embiid has been one of the best fantasy players all season long, averaging 30.2/11.6/4.2 on 49.3% shooting through a 36.8% usage rate. With Indiana’s interior simply in shambles with Domantas Sabonis now in Sacramento and Myles Turner on the shelf, Embiid could go nuts in this last week of the season to make a push for MVP.
Sure, the Lakers have been a disaster this NBA season, but LeBron James remains elite as ever. I can talk about his injured ankle, or the fact that Phoenix boasts one of the league’s best defenses, but it’s LeBron with a playoff berth on the line in April. Enough said.
Given that the NBA had a day off yesterday with the NCAA tournament coming to a close, this section of the article will be short at the time of writing, but ridiculously long come lock. For now, start your NBA lineups with Tre Jones, who will likely make another start with Dejounte Murray still out for the Spurs. In eight starts this season, Jones has a mere 16.3% usage rate but has been efficient as anyone, posting a 13.3/5/7.3 scoring line on 50.6% shooting. Averaging over 32.8 MPG in those contests, Jones’ FPPM of exactly 1.00 in starts shows he can produce when called upon.
Portland @ OKC is one of those games that just means nothing in terms of the standings, but can have a big impact on tonight’s NBA slate. If you have played any slate in the last two weeks, you’ll know that both of these teams are on 8-man rotations, whereby it’s the same contributors on a nightly basis on both sides of the ball. Theo Maledon, Aleksej Pokusevski, and the OKC guards stand out in the mid range, while Drew Eubanks, Brandon Williams, and Keon Johnson are targets for the Trail Blazers.
You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life
In the last week of the NBA season, the DFS landscape is truly like no other sport. Teams are currently battling for a playoff spot in the West, while others jockey for positioning in the East; and of course, a mix of teams are currently doing everything in their power to improve their draft positioning, as well. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Despite San Antonio star Dejounte Murray missing this game with a serious illness, all eyes will be on the current MVP favorite, Nikola Jokic. Truth be told, even without Murray, the Spurs pose a threat to a Nuggets team that barely squeaked by the likes of OKC and Indiana in their recent stretch. Jokic comes into this one having posted 30 or more points in four of his last five games, sporting a 33.8% usage rate during that span and averaging 34.8/16.2/8.4 on 70.2% shooting. Decent numbers, if I do say so myself.
Want to get weird on this NBA slate? Let’s get weird. Pairing the league’s two best centers on the same slate to maximize raw points and ceiling in tournaments in certainly worth entertaining tonight, especially with Embiid chasing an MVP award that seems out of reach. Sure, Indiana is rebuilding, but Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers can certainly play spoiler in this one, as they almost did versus the Nuggets last week. Embiid has been one of the best fantasy players all season long, averaging 30.2/11.6/4.2 on 49.3% shooting through a 36.8% usage rate. With Indiana’s interior simply in shambles with Domantas Sabonis now in Sacramento and Myles Turner on the shelf, Embiid could go nuts in this last week of the season to make a push for MVP.
Sure, the Lakers have been a disaster this NBA season, but LeBron James remains elite as ever. I can talk about his injured ankle, or the fact that Phoenix boasts one of the league’s best defenses, but it’s LeBron with a playoff berth on the line in April. Enough said.
Given that the NBA had a day off yesterday with the NCAA tournament coming to a close, this section of the article will be short at the time of writing, but ridiculously long come lock. For now, start your NBA lineups with Tre Jones, who will likely make another start with Dejounte Murray still out for the Spurs. In eight starts this season, Jones has a mere 16.3% usage rate but has been efficient as anyone, posting a 13.3/5/7.3 scoring line on 50.6% shooting. Averaging over 32.8 MPG in those contests, Jones’ FPPM of exactly 1.00 in starts shows he can produce when called upon.
Portland @ OKC is one of those games that just means nothing in terms of the standings, but can have a big impact on tonight’s NBA slate. If you have played any slate in the last two weeks, you’ll know that both of these teams are on 8-man rotations, whereby it’s the same contributors on a nightly basis on both sides of the ball. Theo Maledon, Aleksej Pokusevski, and the OKC guards stand out in the mid range, while Drew Eubanks, Brandon Williams, and Keon Johnson are targets for the Trail Blazers.
You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life
There will be many popular plays on this NBA slate given the condition of some of these rotations at this point of the season, but there are plenty of spots going overlooked. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
There isn’t much that can be said about Nikola Jokic and why you should be playing him in NBA DFS at this point of the season. The clear-cut favorite for MVP has simply been outstanding, scoring 20 or more points in 15 straight games and posting 13 double-doubles during that span. He’s carried a 33.4% usage rate, posting a 29.9/12.7/7.9 scoring line and gets a friendly matchup versus a Timberwolves frontcourt that ranks bottom 10 in both scoring and rebounding this season to opposing centers.
While most are debating between Jokic, Embiid, and Antetokounmpo for MVP, Luka Doncic quietly deserves recognition as well. The face of the Mavericks franchise has now posted three straight games with 30 or more points, including a triple-double in only 30 minutes versus the Lakers, sporting a ridiculous 40.4% usage rate and averaging 33.7/10.3/10 on 52.9% shooting. With most presumably going to Jokic, Doncic makes for an excellent tournament play on this NBA slate.
He’ll likely go unrostered on this NBA slate given that Doncic, Jokic, and Antetokounmpo is right next to him on the pricing grid, but Dejounte Murray is in a great spot. The most underrated point guard in the NBA has now posted back-to-back 33-point efforts, sporting a 28.3% usage rate, as he aims to get his team into the Play-In tournament. Facing a Portland team that has simply given up on the season, Murray should provide a high ceiling for tournaments versus a team that has given up the 29th ranked assist rate to opposing primary ball handlers.
It’s the same matchup that we saw dictate Wednesday’s NBA slate, so it’s lather, rinse, repeat at this point. It will be a track meet that you need exposure to, and nearly everyone is viable here. Davion Mitchell, Damian Jones, Kevin Porter Jr., and Jalen Green are likely going to be popular.
Simply put, this is the prime value spot. Not only are the Grizzlies still without Ja Morant, but they’re also likely going to sit out Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, and Tyus Jones. Head to the projection model to see which Grizzlies you need to roster on this NBA slate.
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