Gems

With the NFL season winding down, it’s time for bigger and better NBA contests, so we’re bringing the heat for Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems! Despite the 10-game slate, there are clear paths for us to look at before the news hits, so let’s get to it.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($9,600 FD / $9,200 DK)

One of the hardest positions to identify which stud to play is point guard. However, tonight’s decision came fairly easily when the pricing discrepancy on the two-time NBA MVP was made clear, especially on DK. With the Timberwolves ranking 6th in the league in pace and 27th in defensive rating, Curry should have his way with former teammate D’Angelo Russell all night long, making his 1.39 FPPM and 31.7% usage rate a perfect spot for our “marteau d’soir”.

Kyrie Irving ($9,4,00 FD / $9,000 DK)

With a certain Miami big man being a priority for us yet again tonight, I’m going right back to the well and running a 1-2 punch with Kyrie Irving. Despite the slow start last game versus Miami, Kyrie still finished with 28/6/7 on 58.8% shooting, 60% from deep, and nearly 50 FP across both sites, showing just how great of an impact he can make in such little time.

Others to Consider:

• Dejounte Murray ($7,600 FD / $6,500 DK)
• Damian Lillard ($9,700 FD / $10,300 DK)

Shooting Guards

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,200 FD / $8,100 DK)

Despite not making the cut for me on DK tonight because of the man listed right below him, SGA is in a prime spot for one of our two SG on FD. Although he is battling consistency throughout the NBA season, it is not because of a lack of usage: SGA paces the Thunder with a 26.1% clip, whereby no other starter reaches 20% or more. Despite the lack of surrounding talent in what can only be classed as a rebuilding year, SGA’s matchup versus Portland, who ranks 26th in the league versus primary ball handlers, is one that is simply too good to pass up.

D’Angelo Russell ($8,100 FD / $8,300 DK)

An interesting revenge narrative for tonight’s NBA slate, DLo fits the bill to run a 1-2 game stack with Steph Curry as they do battle for our “marteau d’soir”. Sporting a usage rate just north of 30% with Karl-Anthony Towns off the floor, Russell will have ample opportunity in both the pick ‘n roll and off the ball, as the Warriors rank in the bottom-10 of the NBA to FP allowed per game to combo guards.

Others to Consider:

• Fred VanVleet ($7,900 FD / $7,900 DK)
• Kendrick Nunn ($6,500 FD / $6,100 DK)

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant ($10,400 FD / $10,400 DK)

If you’re not getting exposure to the Brooklyn Nets offense in the form of Kyrie Irving, take a long look at KD. Coming in as the second-highest scorer in the NBA behind only Bradley Beal, KD has made a strong return from an achilles injury, averaging 31.2 PPG to go along with 7.2 RPG and 5.8 RPG. With no Jimmy Butler yet again for the Heat, there’s nobody to guard KD on the wing, nor on the perimeter.

Gordon Hayward ($8,100 FD / $7,300 DK)

I never thought I’d be writing Hayward up because he is too safe of an option on a nightly basis, but with his price on DK being $1,000 too cheap and the lack of options at the position on FD, he makes the list. They key for Hayward has been his minutes in the past three games, where he has three straight 38-minute outings. In his past 7 games where he has played 35 or more minutes, Hayward has put up an average of 44.9 DK points, whereby he’s also averaging 30.71 PPG on a ridiculous 56.82% shooting.

OG Anunoby ($6,200 FD / $6,900 DK)

A far better play on FD due to salary and scoring differential, OG has been featured here for quite some time yet continues to carry ridiculously low ownership on a nightly basis. OG carries a surprisingly safe floor on FD due to his defensive upside, where he paces the NBA with 2.2 steals per game, but should Siakam miss this game, he gets an even greater bump due to a larger role on offense, as seen in his last three games, where he’s averaging 23 PPG and 6.33 RPG.

Others to Consider:

• LeBron James ($9,800 FD / $9,300 DK)
• Jaylen Brown ($9,000 FD / $8,500 DK)
• Brandon Ingram ($7,700 FD / $8,000 DK)

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis ($10,100 FD / $9,200 DK)

What if I told you that you cannot only have Steph Curry for $9,200 on DK, but also Anthony Davis? Well, that’s the reality on tonight’s NBA slate, and it’s scary that he is still not pulling the ownership he deserves. While Cleveland’s defense has been stout in the early stages of the season, they are vulnerable in the paint with a combination of Jarrett Allen’s lackluster defense and Andre Drummond foul issues against fellow big men. I said it before that AD would break a slate, and last game versus Chicago, where he dropped 37/6/3 on 66.67% shooting in his hometown may have been what he needed to get going.

Domantas Sabonis ($9,600 FD / $9,800 DK)

Despite the hefty price tag putting him in the same price bracket as Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Bam Adebayo, and others, Sabonis still warrants consideration tonight. For the very same reason that I just laid out for you, nobody will play him, and if he outscores other studs on the slate, you’ll be jumping thousands of spots at once; Leading the NBA with 38.4 MPG, Sabonis ranks fourth in RPG with 12.9 to go along with his 20.9 PPG and 5.8 APG. In 40 minutes yesterday versus the Raptors, who struggle mightily in the paint, Sabonis still managed to drop 10/19/5 despite only making 1 shot from the field – that’s right, one. Whereas Myles Turner shot 8 for 12 from the field yesterday, Sabonis is the guy to target here and should have a 20/15/5 game with ease.

Bam Adebayo ($9,600 FD / $8,500 DK)

Over 28% usage and 1.44 FPPM with Butler off the floor this season and DK has not changed Adebayo’s price after coming off a 62 DK point performance despite only grabbing 5 rebounds. The Nets have been decimated in the paint since moving Jarrett Allen out to Cleveland, and there’s absolutely no reason to go right back to well tonight.

Others to Consider:

• Zion Williamson ($8,000 FD / $7,900 DK)
• Chris Boucher ($6,500 FD / $6,800 DK)

Centers

Primary options at the time of writing:

• Nikola Jokic ($11,200 FD / $10,800 DK)
• Joel Embiid ($10,200 FD / $9,700 DK)
• Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 FD / $8,700 DK)
• Myles Turner ($7,500 FD / $7,400 DK)

Note: I am playing Bam at Center on DK, but these are my preferred options for FD or utility options on DK.

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

It’s Fajita Friday people – get up and get pumped for a juicy NBA slate! Ton of news to follow already as I’m typing this so make sure to look for updates in Discord.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Trae Young ($9,900 FD / $9,600 DK)

With the Atlanta Hawks taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves on tonight’s NBA slate, there is no need to identify which matchup looks like one of, if not the most attractive to us. Two teams that play fast and no defense is exactly what we are looking for, and Trae Young fits the bill perfectly; possibly without both De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish again tonight, in addition to Bogdan Bogdonovic and Danilo Gallinari, Trae’s 31.9% usage rate and 24 PPG will be relied upon heavily to get them the win.

Kyrie Irving ($9,200 FD / $9,000 DK)

Kyrie Revenge Narrative 2.0 – not only did the Cavs beat the Nets in a double-overtime thriller just two days ago, but Kyrie saw Collin Sexton wearing his number in Cleveland, his shoes, and dropped 42/5/5. From a more analytical standpoint, Kyrie led the Big 3 with a 30.6% usage rate on the night and with the Nets now having the 28th-ranked defensive efficiency since acquiring James Harden, they need all the offense they can get on a nightly basis, and it starts with Kyrie Irving. Core Play

Others to Consider:

• Dejounte Murray ($7,800 FD / $7,400 DK)
• De’Aaron Fox ($7,800 FD / $8,800 DK)

Shooting Guards

Zach Lavine ($9,300 FD / $9,500 DK)

The price is getting high for Chicago’s lead man, but it’s well worth considering, nonetheless. Lavine sits 5th in the NBA scoring race, averaging 27.4 PPG across 35.6 MPG. Facing a Charlotte Hornets backcourt that allows over 47 FPPG to opposing ball handlers, Lavine is in a great spot tonight.

Victor Oladipo ($8,500 FD / $8,000 DK)

His price quickly increased after his move to Houston from Indiana, but Victor Oladipo is not only part of our cash core on tonight’s NBA slate, but is also worthy of GPP consideration despite high ownership expectations. Sporting a ridiculous 40% usage rate in two games for the Rockets, Dipo has averaged 27/5/7.5 on 44.4% shooting and will be tasked with an even greater load on offense considering the absence of Christian Wood.

D’Angelo Russell ($8,400 FD / $8,700 DK)

We love this game to begin with so it’s only natural to target the primary offensive weapon for the Timberwolves in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns. Without his childhood friend, DLo has a 31.5% usage rate, including a 35.1% clip versus the Hawks just a few days ago, where he dropped 31 points in 32 minutes.

Others to Consider:

• James Harden ($10,700 FD / $10,800 DK)
• Fred VanVleet ($7,800 FD / $7,800 DK)
• Collin Sexton ($7,500 FD / $7,300 DK)
• Kevin Huerter ($5,900 FD / $5,900 DK)

Small Forwards

Jerami Grant ($8,400 FD / $8,100 DK)

An offensive force for the Pistons thus far, Grant will get ample opportunity to flourish in one of the best game environments on the NBA slate. Facing a Houston Rockets team that already struggles mightily on the defense end, they will be without Christian Wood tonight and inserting Boogie Cousins into the starting lineup. Grant, a 3-and-D wing with length and a good mid-range game, will be able to take advantage of the likes of Eric Gordon, David Nwaba, and Jae’Sean Tate on the wing all night long.

RJ Barrett ($6,900 FD / $6,800 DK)

Playing for Tom Thibodeau certainly has its perks: one of which, being a starter, you’ll likely be Top-10 in the NBA in minutes per game (MPG). Tied for second-most in the league along with teammate Julius Randle, Barrett’s 37.1 MPG has given him more than enough playing time to truly polish his game to the tune of 17.8 PPG and being an offensive catalyst for the Knicks this season. Facing the NBA’s worst defense in Sacramento, there’s no reason to believe Thibs won’t run his starters into the ground here again tonight.

OG Anunoby ($6,000 FD / $6,100 DK)

Not only has OG Anunoby been counted on tremendously this season given the Raptors’ struggles at center and in the paint, but now Pascal Siakam may not play tonight. Despite only having a mere 15.7% usage rate on the season, OG has been consistent on both ends of the floor, averaging 13.4 PPG and 2 steals per game, hitting 30+ fantasy points in five straight.

Others to Consider:

• Kawhi Leonard ($9,500 FD / $9,700 DK)
• Eric Gordon ($5,200 FD / $5,700 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,300 FD / $9,900 DK)

Sabonis featured as a Gem – surprise to no one. By now, if you don’t know that I consider him one of, if not the most underrated big man in the NBA, I don’t know what to tell you. The price is steep on DK and I likely won’t get there, but with a ton of questionable options at PF on FD, Sabonis is the rock you can use in your lineup tonight. Averaging the most minutes per game in the league, there isn’t anything this big man doesn’t do: averaging 21.9/12.6/5.6 in 14 games thus far, Indiana will not only need their star on the offensive end, but to also guard Vucevic on the perimeter.

Julius Randle ($8,900 FD / $9,100 DK)

Thibs gonna Thibs – Julius Randle is in the midst of arguably his best NBA season yet, not only thanks to improved play on the offensive end of the ball, but because of Coach Thibodeau’s reluctancy to take him off the court. Averaging 22.4/11.4/6.3 on a 27.1% usage rate, Randle will make Marvin Bagley and Richaun Holmes look silly tonight.

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,400 FD / $8,100 DK)

The Unicorn has come back in full force and really took a load off of Luka Doncic and Co. Sporting a 27.8% usage rate thus far, Porzingis is already averaging over 20 PPG and attacking the glass with 8.8 RPG. The 6.2 FGA from deep is surely only going to add to his value considering he is shooting a mere 29% from outside the arc, but Zinger will have his way with an ageing Spurs frontcourt tonight.

Others to Consider:

• Chris Boucher ($7,800 FD / $7,300 DK)
• PJ Washington ($6,800 FD / $6,800 DK)

Centers

Primary Options:

• Nikola Jokic ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)
• Clint Capela ($9,200 FD / $8,300 DK)
• Andre Drummond ($8,600 FD / $9,400 DK)
• Demarcus Cousins ($4,500 FD / $4,400 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Thank you to the boys for covering me yesterday – both Brian and Adam crushed the daily content, as usual, and some key notes in Discord provided so many green screens that I didn’t know which ones to feature in the article. After a much successful day for the team, we’re on to Thirsty Thursday’s Gems and another NBA slate to attack that will see the Miami Heat be extremely chalky – I will not write them up if they are priced under 5k (see below), but they are certainly all in play here.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($9,600 FD / $9,700 DK)

Despite only dropping a combined 31 points on 27.27% shooting in his last two, Curry is in play on every NBA slate given the magnitude of his role on a nightly basis. Leading the charge for a playoff Warriors team, Curry’s 31.8% usage rate on offense and season averages of 27.8/5.1/6.4 give him the ability to break any slate – the number of double and triple teams he’s seeing on defense is simply ridiculous, but with the amount of value available to us in the form of a shorthanded Miami Heat squad, his raw point ceiling is more than enough to have him in our player pools.

Damian Lillard ($9,200 FD / $9,300 DK)

It’s Dame Time, baby. Let’s get one thing clear here – Portland does not play defense – not even a little bit. We saw what happened yesterday in a game versus the Sacramento Kings, who have much less firepower on offense than the Pacers do. If Portland wants to make it two for two on back-to-back night, Dame will have to build on his 40-point, 13-assist performance from just 24 hours ago, where he also got to the charity stripe a whopping 12 times.

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,600 FD / $8,300 DK)

A nice 1-2 stack in the Portland-Indiana game, Malcolm Brogdon remains too cheap for this individual game considering the Pacers will not have newly acquired Caris LeVert in the lineup just yet. Running the offense alongside Domantas Sabonis, Brogdon’s season usage rate of 24.1% will be much higher versus a high-octane Portland offense that ranks last in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to opposing primary ball handlers, setting him up nicely to build on his season averages of 22.5 PPG and 7.5 APG.

Also Consider:

• Dejounte Murray ($7,500 FD / $7,500 DK)
• Terry Rozier ($6,700 FD / $6,200 DK)

Shooting Guards

CJ McCollum ($9,500 FD / $8,400 DK)

Sporting a 28.9% usage rate on the season, McCollum’s key to success has been the time he has spent on the court closing out first quarters and opening second quarters with Dame off the floor: with a bump to nearly 33% usage, McCollum averages 1.42 FPPM during this stretch, where he is often facing backup guards on defense. If you’re not going Dame, CJ makes for a great GPP pivot on this NBA slate considering the majority of the field will pay down at guard tonight.

Tyler Herro ($6,500 FD / $7,300 DK)

He’ll come in at ridiculous ownership, but he is also wildly underpriced on FD. Coming off a game where he saw just under 40 minutes and had 26 field goal attempts, Herro will be relied upon yet again here for a shorthanded Miami team. With a usage rate over 30% in last game with the starting 5, there’s no analysis as to why I need to tell you to consider Herro tonight.

Aaron Holiday ($5,000 FD / $4,500 DK)

Coming in at 1% ownership at the time of writing, Aaron Holiday is surely on my radar for NBA GPPs tonight. While we cannot expect him to replicate his 12 assists from last game, the 16 shot attempts surely caught my eye, as it was only the second time that Holiday has hit double digits in FGA this season. With Oladipo now shipped to Houston, Holiday will have ample opportunity to get there tonight alongside Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis.

Also Consider:

• Tyrese Maxey ($5,600 FD / $5,600 DK)

Small Forwards

Tobias Harris ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)

Expected back for the 76ers tonight, I’ll be overweight on Harris as the field likely flocks to the Gordon/Robinson duo on FD. Averaging 19 PPG thus far, Harris has been extremely efficient this season, nearing an appearance in the storied 50/40/90 club; he’s shooting 50.7% from the field, 44.7% from deep, and 82.4% from the free throw line. With the number of minutes Ben Simmons played last game coming off the COVID list, it’s Harris’ time to decimate this shorthanded Heat squad.

OG Anunoby ($5,500 FD / $5,800 DK)

Drawing next to no ownership, expect OG to be one of the GPP plays we take a flier on for tonight’s NBA slate. While his statistics are rather unimpressive at times, it’s the matchup that intrigues me: with Charlotte matching Bismack Biyombo on bigger centers and taking him off the floor when the opposition goes small, the Raptors can utilize this to their advantage and run a wing/frontcourt combination of OG/Siakam/Boucher without having cause for concern that they get dominated in the paint.

Eric Gordon ($5,100 FD / $5,100 DK)

While everyone likely flocks to Miami chalk, and rightfully so, I’m good with getting my Gordon exposure on both sites with John Wall already ruled out. He’ll have ample opportunity to both run point and off-ball to the tune of 20+ FGA, and that’s all we can ask for at this price range.

Also Consider:

• Duncan Robinson ($4,900 FD / $5,500 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,500 DK)

This defensive matchup is easily one of the best on the entire NBA slate. Slated to see the majority of minutes versus Nurkic and Kanter, Sabonis will be a cog at the PF position for me, just as he always is. A near 25% usage rate thus far has Sabonis averaging a clean 21.8/12.5/5.8 on 55.6% shooting across 37.8 MPG, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be relied upon heavily versus one of the worst defensive units in the entire league.

Christian Wood ($8,100 FD / $7,700 DK)

Averaging a robust 9.5 RPG, Christian Wood will have more than enough room to work the paint and the mid-range tonight versus LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poeltl. The Spurs are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA both on the offensive and defensive end, and even if Boogie starts, Wood is the main focus on this Houston offense now.

Chris Boucher ($7,800 FD / $6,500 DK)

See the OG Anunoby blurb – the Raptors will be taking advantage of a Hornets defensive scheme that does not trust their bigs – or lack thereof – to intimidate on the inside. Cue a potential 6th-man of the year candidate in Boucher, who has been a force both offensively and on the glass thus far for The North.

Also Consider:

• Kelly Olynyk ($5,300 FD / $6,400 DK)

Centers

With the amount of value that is available to us on this NBA slate, there are no other centers I will be playing, at least on FD, other than the following two:

• Nikola Jokic ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)
• Joel Embiid ($10,200 FD / $10,000 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost