Thank you to the boys for covering me yesterday – both Brian and Adam crushed the daily content, as usual, and some key notes in Discord provided so many green screens that I didn’t know which ones to feature in the article. After a much successful day for the team, we’re on to Thirsty Thursday’s Gems and another NBA slate to attack that will see the Miami Heat be extremely chalky – I will not write them up if they are priced under 5k (see below), but they are certainly all in play here.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Steph Curry ($9,600 FD / $9,700 DK)
Despite only dropping a combined 31 points on 27.27% shooting in his last two, Curry is in play on every NBA slate given the magnitude of his role on a nightly basis. Leading the charge for a playoff Warriors team, Curry’s 31.8% usage rate on offense and season averages of 27.8/5.1/6.4 give him the ability to break any slate – the number of double and triple teams he’s seeing on defense is simply ridiculous, but with the amount of value available to us in the form of a shorthanded Miami Heat squad, his raw point ceiling is more than enough to have him in our player pools.
Damian Lillard ($9,200 FD / $9,300 DK)
It’s Dame Time, baby. Let’s get one thing clear here – Portland does not play defense – not even a little bit. We saw what happened yesterday in a game versus the Sacramento Kings, who have much less firepower on offense than the Pacers do. If Portland wants to make it two for two on back-to-back night, Dame will have to build on his 40-point, 13-assist performance from just 24 hours ago, where he also got to the charity stripe a whopping 12 times.
Malcolm Brogdon ($8,600 FD / $8,300 DK)
A nice 1-2 stack in the Portland-Indiana game, Malcolm Brogdon remains too cheap for this individual game considering the Pacers will not have newly acquired Caris LeVert in the lineup just yet. Running the offense alongside Domantas Sabonis, Brogdon’s season usage rate of 24.1% will be much higher versus a high-octane Portland offense that ranks last in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to opposing primary ball handlers, setting him up nicely to build on his season averages of 22.5 PPG and 7.5 APG.
Also Consider:
Shooting Guards
CJ McCollum ($9,500 FD / $8,400 DK)
Sporting a 28.9% usage rate on the season, McCollum’s key to success has been the time he has spent on the court closing out first quarters and opening second quarters with Dame off the floor: with a bump to nearly 33% usage, McCollum averages 1.42 FPPM during this stretch, where he is often facing backup guards on defense. If you’re not going Dame, CJ makes for a great GPP pivot on this NBA slate considering the majority of the field will pay down at guard tonight.
Tyler Herro ($6,500 FD / $7,300 DK)
He’ll come in at ridiculous ownership, but he is also wildly underpriced on FD. Coming off a game where he saw just under 40 minutes and had 26 field goal attempts, Herro will be relied upon yet again here for a shorthanded Miami team. With a usage rate over 30% in last game with the starting 5, there’s no analysis as to why I need to tell you to consider Herro tonight.
Aaron Holiday ($5,000 FD / $4,500 DK)
Coming in at 1% ownership at the time of writing, Aaron Holiday is surely on my radar for NBA GPPs tonight. While we cannot expect him to replicate his 12 assists from last game, the 16 shot attempts surely caught my eye, as it was only the second time that Holiday has hit double digits in FGA this season. With Oladipo now shipped to Houston, Holiday will have ample opportunity to get there tonight alongside Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis.
Also Consider:
Small Forwards
Tobias Harris ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)
Expected back for the 76ers tonight, I’ll be overweight on Harris as the field likely flocks to the Gordon/Robinson duo on FD. Averaging 19 PPG thus far, Harris has been extremely efficient this season, nearing an appearance in the storied 50/40/90 club; he’s shooting 50.7% from the field, 44.7% from deep, and 82.4% from the free throw line. With the number of minutes Ben Simmons played last game coming off the COVID list, it’s Harris’ time to decimate this shorthanded Heat squad.
OG Anunoby ($5,500 FD / $5,800 DK)
Drawing next to no ownership, expect OG to be one of the GPP plays we take a flier on for tonight’s NBA slate. While his statistics are rather unimpressive at times, it’s the matchup that intrigues me: with Charlotte matching Bismack Biyombo on bigger centers and taking him off the floor when the opposition goes small, the Raptors can utilize this to their advantage and run a wing/frontcourt combination of OG/Siakam/Boucher without having cause for concern that they get dominated in the paint.
Eric Gordon ($5,100 FD / $5,100 DK)
While everyone likely flocks to Miami chalk, and rightfully so, I’m good with getting my Gordon exposure on both sites with John Wall already ruled out. He’ll have ample opportunity to both run point and off-ball to the tune of 20+ FGA, and that’s all we can ask for at this price range.
Also Consider:
Power Forwards
Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,500 DK)
This defensive matchup is easily one of the best on the entire NBA slate. Slated to see the majority of minutes versus Nurkic and Kanter, Sabonis will be a cog at the PF position for me, just as he always is. A near 25% usage rate thus far has Sabonis averaging a clean 21.8/12.5/5.8 on 55.6% shooting across 37.8 MPG, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be relied upon heavily versus one of the worst defensive units in the entire league.
Christian Wood ($8,100 FD / $7,700 DK)
Averaging a robust 9.5 RPG, Christian Wood will have more than enough room to work the paint and the mid-range tonight versus LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poeltl. The Spurs are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA both on the offensive and defensive end, and even if Boogie starts, Wood is the main focus on this Houston offense now.
Chris Boucher ($7,800 FD / $6,500 DK)
See the OG Anunoby blurb – the Raptors will be taking advantage of a Hornets defensive scheme that does not trust their bigs – or lack thereof – to intimidate on the inside. Cue a potential 6th-man of the year candidate in Boucher, who has been a force both offensively and on the glass thus far for The North.
Also Consider:
Centers
With the amount of value that is available to us on this NBA slate, there are no other centers I will be playing, at least on FD, other than the following two:
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
This article focuses on 1/14 NHL Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel and DraftKings Daily Fantasy. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at large. Full goal scoring odds and rankings for each position per site below.
Let’s get ready for day two of the NHL’s return! We have a much bigger slate than yesterday with ten games, beginning at 7pm ET. Therefore, ownership will not be much of a consideration, as it will likely be a non-factor. First, we will dig through all of the goal scoring odds, before full rankings and top lines for tomorrow per site.
Note: All odds listed +300 or below.
Washington (-134) at Buffalo (+155) – Alexander Ovechkin (-105), Jack Eichel (+138), Taylor Hall (+205), T.J. Oshie (+205), Jakob Vrana (+205), Evgeny Kuznetsov (+245), Tom Wilson (+260), Victor Olofsson (+265), Jeff Skinner (+280)
Boston (-175) at New Jersey (+148) – Patrice Bergeron (+140), Brad Marchand (+170), Kyle Palmieri (+190), Anders Bjork (+275), Jake DeBrusk (+275), Ondrej Kase (+275), Craig Smith (+275), Jake Studnicka (+275), David Krejci (+295), Andreas Johnsson (+300)
New York Rangers (-105) at New York Islanders (-112) – Mika Zibanejad (+135), Artemi Panarin (+175), Brock Nelson (+205), Anthony Beauvillier (+225), Anders Lee (+225), Chris Kreider (+230), Jordan Eberle (+240), Matthew Barzal (+250), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (+285), Pavel Buchnevich (+290)
Carolina (-200) at Detroit (+170) – Sebastian Aho (+102), Anthony Mantha (+180), Andrei Svechnikov (+185), Dylan Larkin (+215), Nino Niederreiter (+235), Teuvo Teräväinen (+235), Drew Shore (+235), Dougie Hamilton (+250), Vincent Trocheck (+250), Martin Necas (+250), Tyler Bertuzzi (+260)
Columbus (+104) at Nashville (-120) – Filip Forsberg (+180), Viktor Arvidsson (+195), Oliver Björkstrand (+210), Pierre-Luc Dubois (+230), Matt Duchene (+265), Cam Atkinson (+285)
Calgary (-120) at Winnipeg (+102) – Kyle Connor (+165), Matthew Tkachuk (+180), Mark Scheifele (+190), Sean Monahan (+205), Elias Lindholm (+230), Johnny Gaudreau (+255), Nikolaj Ehlers (+270), Blake Wheeler (+285), Dillon Dube (+300)
Vancouver (+108) at Edmonton (-125) – Leon Draisaitl (+123), Connor McDavid (+133), Elias Pettersson (+175), Brock Boeser (+210), J.T. Miller (+210), Bo Horvat (+235), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (+240), Kailer Yamamoto (+240), Dominik Kahun (+285), Jake Virtanen (+295)
San Jose (+108) at Arizona (-125) – Conor Garland (+205), Evander Kane (+205), Logan Couture (+225), Timo Meier (+225), Christian Dvorak (+240), Phil Kessel (+240), Clayton Keller (+270), Tomas Hertl (+275), Nick Schmaltz (+285)
Anaheim (+180) at Las Vegas (-215) – Max Pacioretty (+150), Jonathan Marchessault (+210), Mark Stone (+210), William Karlsson (+220), Reilly Smith (+235), Rickard Rakell (+250), Chandler Stephenson (+270), Alex Tuch (+270), Adam Henrique (+280)
Minnesota (-125) at Los Angeles (+108) – Kevin Fiala (+170), Kirill Kaprizov (+188), Anze Kopitar (+210), Zach Parise (+230), Marcus Johansson (+255), Dustin Brown (+265), Jeff Carter (+280), Alex Iafallo (+295), Jordan Greenway (+300)
I hate parlays. They truly are idiot’s bets. However, I do not like much else here, as no individual goal or shot odds have me drooling and most of the totals and lines seem fairly accurate. So might as well load up on two teams that should take care of business against a pair of bottom feeders.
On a ten game slate, there is no need to worry about ownership. Given the scoring odds, combined with salary, the Carolina Hurricanes top line makes a lot of sense. The Canes at -200 fall just slightly behind Las Vegas for the title of the slate’s top favorite.
Sebastian Aho is the corner stone at a $7,100 price that is a bit cheaper than his elite peers at the center position. Nido Niederreiter provides us with salary relief at $3,800. Finally, Teuvo Teravainan fills out the top line and has first unit power play correlation with Aho.
The two players alongside Aho are not what really get me excited about stacking up the Hurricanes. Dougie Hamilton has far and away the highest scoring odds of any defenseman and has full top line and power play correlation. If focusing on the power play, Andrei Svechnikov and Vincent Trocheck also make fine additions.
You can similarly play Carolina One on FanDuel. In fact, Dougie Hamilton is super cheap there, so you should definitely at least play him. However, for the sake of being different, let’s turn to the other big favorite on the slate. On DraftKings, I would prefer turning to the top line, given that Max Pacioretty seems a bit underpriced at $6,900.
Nevertheless, with William Karlsson only $5,200, Reilly Smith $4,900 and Johnathan Marchessault $6,300, they leave plenty of salary remaining to add Shea Theodore and a lot more.
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/
This article focuses on 1/12 EPL Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel and DraftKings Daily Fantasy. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at large.
Let’s get ready for EPL Matchweek 18/38! FanDuel is running their slate with all three games beginning at 1pm ET, whereas DraftKings is unfortunately, only featuring the final two.
Newcastle (+205) at Sheffield United (+148) – Surprisingly, Sheffield United is favored in the early FanDuel only game. You can play a goalie but otherwise there is not a whole lot here to like. It certainly makes for a sleepy start to EPL’s return.
Manchester United (-220) at Burnley (+600) – More on this game below under EPL Best Odds.
Everton (+205) at Wolves (+145) – Wolves are favored but come into this winless over their last four matches. However, Everton have only been marginally better. James Rodriguez should have his sea legs back, following a lengthy injury. However, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been ruled out. As a result, this should be a tighter affair that the other late game.
Note: Many of these players will not end up starting, but their goal odds are listed just in case. If they do not end up starting, disregard them. All odds listed +300 or below and projected starters are listed in bold.
Newcastle at Sheffield United – Callum Wilson (+170), David McGoldrick (+225), Oliver McBurnie (+235), Lys Mousset (+235), Rhian Brewster (+245), Billy Sharp (+255), Dwight Gayle (+285), Joelinton (+440), John Fleck (+440), Miguel Almiron (+575)
Manchester United at Burnley – Edinson Cavani (+116), Bruno Fernandes (+123), Marcus Rashford (+145), Anthony Martial (+155), Mason Greenwood (+185), Chris Wood (+255), Ashley Barnes (+330), Matěj Vydra (+360), Jay Rodriguez (+375), Paul Pogba (+420)
Everton at Wolves – Patrick Cutrone (+225), Fabio Silva (+240), Cenk Tosun (+275), Pedro Neto (+275), Richarlison (+350), James Rodriguez (+440), Gylfi Sigurdsson (+500), Adama Traore (+550)
The odds here are not that juicy compared to the seven piece parlays the people want. However, it also seems safe, as it would be extremely disappointing for Manchester United to squander their league position while away at Burnley. This is the type of game that any real contender for the English Premier League title should find a way to win handily.
Bruno Fernandes will probably be the most popular play on this slate. Edinson Cavani has already been ruled out in advance. Therefore, the trio of Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood, should feature. With United the slate’s biggest favorite they should be the highest owned attacking options outside of Bruno and James Rodriguez.
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-soccer/
"*" indicates required fields
