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NHL DFS Hot Shot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Apr. 13)

Richard Masana 2 years ago

written by Richard Masana

It’s been quite a ride. Through the best of times, the worst of times. Many periods later we find ourselves here on the final day of the NHL regular season. There are fifteen games on this giant slate so without further adieu, let’s dig in below. Aside from reading the 4/13 NHL DFS article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning. If you like what you see, sign up for more Win Daily content here.

4/13 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET

*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings and are accurate as of the time of writing*

New Jersey Devils (-175) at Washington Capitals (+150) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Boston Bruins (-275) at Montreal Canadiens (+230) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Pittsburgh Penguins (-170) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+145) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Carolina Hurricanes (+100) at Florida Panthers (-120) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Toronto Maple Leafs (+110) at New York Rangers (-130) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Ottawa Senators (+115) at Buffalo Sabres (-135) – 7 Projected Goal Total

Detroit Red Wings (+200) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-240) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Minnesota Wild (-110) at Nashville Predators (-110) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

Winnipeg Jets (+135) at Colorado Avalanche (-155) – 6 Projected Goal Total

St. Louis Blues (+190) at Dallas Stars (-225) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Philadelphia Flyers (-120) at Chicago Blackhawks (+100) – 6 Projected Goal Total

San Jose Sharks (+350) at Edmonton Oilers (-435) – 7 Projected Goal Total

Los Angeles Kings (-225) at Anaheim Ducks (+190) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Vancouver Canucks (-150) at Arizona Coyotes (+130) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Vegas Golden Knights (-120) at Seattle Kraken (+100) – 6 Projected Goal Total

4/13 NHL Favorite Line

Edmonton One – “Connor McDavid ($10,200), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($7,100)” (TWO-MAN STACK)

Even on such a huge slate, Edmonton sticks out. The Oilers are -435 money-line favorites in a seven-goal game. With their prices, of course, you’re instantly in a stars and scrubs situation salary-wise. However, on this large of a slate, we can find value elsewhere. So now it comes down to which Edmonton line you want to target, first, second, or a power-play combination. My lean is with the top line as they represent 3/5 top power-play skaters as opposed to solely one. However, Zach Hyman has had a very low ceiling recently and is expensive much like the other two skaters. I like the two-man build with Conor McDavid and RNH and we can look to save money on other spots.

4/13 NHL Second Favorite Line

Pittsburgh One – “Sidney Crosby ($7,900), Jake Guentzel ($7,500), Rikard Rakell ($6,100)”

It may be too little, too late for the Penguin’s playoff hopes. However, that probably won’t stop them from taking out their frustrations on the Blue Jackets. I’d say abysmal may be a kind way to describe Columbus at the moment. They come in losers of four straight with a goal differential of -114 for the season “second worst in the NHL this season”. Pittsburgh’s top line has been absolutely smashing both in terms of actual goals and peripheral stats. They have eight goals in their last ten games “tied for second in the NHL” and are second in SATF over that span “129”. I don’t know how much I really have to add here given the matchup. The Blue Jackets will just be happy the season is over and look not to surrender 7-8 goals.

10-Day Sample Size – Goals Scored

4/13 NHL Third Favorite Line

Buffalo Two – “Tage Thompson ($8,100), Dylan Cozens ($5,800), Jordan Greenway ($2,700)”

The Sabres defied expectations this season despite falling short of a playoff spot. On the final day of the regular season, they find themselves in a cushy seven-total matchup versus Ottawa. Of course, let’s turn to Buffalo’s second line over their top line. I mean what is playing Sabres in DFS if you don’t have Tage Thompson in there? Jordan Greenway is usable for salary relief. Considering how expensive the Edmonton combo and Pittsburgh lines listed above are, he may come in necessary if following the article. If you wanted a really unique build you could bring it back with Senators for a game stack. Ottawa’s top line is seventh among all NHL lines in SATF over the last ten games.

10-Day Sample Size – SATF “includes all shot attempts such as blocked shots and missed shots”

Defenseman and Goalie

Defenseman

Devon Toews – Colorado – $5,500 – He continues to be a nightly lock under $6,000 with Cale Makar out until at least the playoffs. Don’t overthink it.

Goalie

Juuse Saros – Nashville Predators – $7,300 – The Predators may be eliminated now. However, Saros has been on absolute fire as of late. His price is very fair as well, hovering just over $7,000. Considering this is a 5.5 total affair, it’s safe to say it probably won’t be any shootout.

4/13 NHL Best Bet

Florida Panthers (-120) – DraftKings – 1 Unit – Because I just know they will ruin things for the Islanders. The Panthers are just too hot right now (6-3-1 last ten games) to pass up in that sort of raucous home atmosphere.

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! He is not very difficult to find on Discord with the username Rich Masana. Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/

2 years ago 0 comments

RBC Heritage Picks & Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

What a Masters tournament we experienced! Certainly Jon Rahm fulfilled his potential in spades, coming through to dominate a resurgent Brooks Koepka in the final round. With multiple delays and extreme weather, it was an intriguing tournament. Naturally, a bit of lethargy and post-Major hangover is to be expected. You can only imagine how the players feel having been at Augusta National from dawn to dusk. However, another designated event with a huge purse awaits for our 2023 RBC Heritage picks!

In hindsight, Jon Rahm may have seen an obvious winner at The Masters. Our two courses that provided key indicators were the Plantation and Riviera. Obviously, Jon Rahm won both of those tournaments this year. However, he also managed to overcome a huge weather disadvantage. The wave Jon Rahm emerged from played +2.79 strokes harder for the first two rounds. Certainly, that is likely to be the biggest weather edge we see all year. It goes a long way to indicate just how far ahead of the field Rahm was, winning by 4 strokes but playing in a weather wave that on paper was another 3 strokes more difficult than what Koepka played in. Patrick Reed and Russell Henley were the two closest to Rahm from that wave, 5 shots back at -7. It was dominant, impressive, and a well deserved victory.

Course Analysis for our RBC Heritage Picks

Obviously, there is a much stronger field as a result of the elevated status of this event in 2023. The unique and particular Harbour Town Golf Links plays host this week. However, don’t let the name deceive you; the course itself is, for the most part, more like a parkland course than a links.

Only two holes are by the ocean (although water features on all 18 holes) and the course features tree-lined fairways. In some cases, this results in a real sense of claustrophobia off the tee. Not only are the penalties for straying off the tee severe, even finding the fairway may not be enough if you end up on the wrong side due to overhanging trees blocking the path to the hole.

The greens are some of the smallest on the entire PGA Tour and accurate approach play is imperative for your RBC Heritage Picks. Also, a strong scrambling performance will play a factor with the invariable greens missed. Putting is minimized somewhat due to the miniscule nature of the green complexes. However, note that putting from 5ft-15ft does receive a small boost due to that missed GIR potential.

Due to this distinctive style, despite only being a 7,121 yard par-71 the course demands restraint off the tee and has one of the lowest average driving distance on tour. Certainly, players do club down to ensure they position their shot where they need. This also has additional effect of seeing more than double the tour average for number of shots between 175-200 yards as players all end up playing a similar length. Driver length becomes mostly irrelevant.

Course Comps for our 2023 RBC Heritage Picks

Pete Dye’s iconic course designs feature readily on the tour. But, of those, TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship). and Austin Country Club (WGC Matchplay) provide short courses where accuracy and scrambling come to the fore.

The Sea Island Plantation Course (RSM Classic) has strong form links here, again being coastal with winds in play but plentiful trees and bunkering meaning driving accuracy and approach are vital.

Sedgefield Country Club maintains links as a positional course where shorter drivers can thrive but driving accuracy is at a premium. Sedgefield is also highly correlated to TPC Sawgrass, adding to those ties for your RBC Heritage picks.

Weather

Unfortunately, another volatile week looks to be on the cards for our RBC Heritage Picks.

Certainly, on paper Thursday AM looks to be the kindest winds of the day. Concurrently, Thursday PM should see heavy gusts and rain entering the area. However, tempering this is the possibility of thunderstorms in the afternoon, which threaten to flip this edge on it’s head. Knowing how severe and when these thunderstorms may hit is an exercise fraught with risk and uncertainty.

Additionally, Friday weather should be calm all day with a small possibility of showers. Therefore, with the thunderstorms, there remains a real possibility that Thursday PM tee times may end up playing majority of their two rounds in the very best of conditions Friday.

Certainly, from a DFS standpoint, I recommend building stacks in both directions. I will have a slight lean on the Thursday PM and Friday AM tee times due to the threat of lightning delaying play. Therefore, my DFS construction will be 40% PM/AM, 30% AM/PM, and 30% mixed.

You can find latest weather reports here.

RBC Heritage Picks & Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Matt Kuchar
2.5pts WIN +5000 Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +400 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Russell Henley – Your RBC Heritage Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +7500 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +400 Draftkings/MGM
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Si Woo Kim
2pts WIN +7500 MGM
2pts Top 10 +550 MGM
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk – Your RBC Heritage Picks Best Value
1pt WIN +8000 Draftkings/MGM
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +275 Draftkings

Wyndham Clark
1pt WIN +10000 Fanduel/MGM
1pt Top 10 +850 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +360 Draftkings

J.J. Spaun
1pt WIN +15000 MGM
1pt Top 10 +800 Fanduel/Draftkings/MGM (+1000 Bet365)
or 1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 MGM

Stephan Jaeger – Your RBC Heritage Picks Longshot
0.5pts WIN +19000 Fanduel
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 Draftkings (+1400 Bet365)
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 Fanduel
And
2pts Top 40 +175 Fanduel/MGM

Andrew Putnam
0.5pts WIN +21000 Fanduel
0.5pts Top 10 +1100 Draftkings/Fanduel
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 Fanduel
And
2pts Top 40 +190 Draftkings/Fanduel

Your RBC Heritage Picks DFS Core: Kuchar, Henley, Kirk

Thank you reading our 2023 RBC Heritage picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 12)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Wednesday and that means we have day baseball as it’s getaway day for most teams. We have an 8 game early slate of MLB DFS today. This is going to be a slate packed with offense. We have a Coors game and we also have a warm and windy game in Wrigley. At first glance, pitching is limited on this slate.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zack Wheeler vs. Miami Marlins

With a lack of solid arms this afternoon, I suspect that Wheeler will be extremely popular tonight. He gets a nice matchup vs. a below-average Marlins lineup. Yes, they put an 8 spot vs. the Phillies last night. Aaron Nola has been mostly ineffective this season. Wheeler on the other hand has been pretty good.

After a questionable start to open the year vs. the Rangers, he settled down nicely against the Reds. This is a Marlins lineup that has essentially been terrible vs. righties this season. The projected lineup this afternoon has a K rate over 28% and a wOBA below .290. It’s baseball and anything can happen, but this has ceiling game written all over it for Wheels.

Sonny Gray vs. Chicago White Sox

This is where things start to get a little dicey. After Wheeler, there’s a ton of risk with all pitchers. Sonny Gray has been really solid to start the year. In his last outing, he was absolutely dominant. In 7 innings of work, he struck out 13 Astros. Yes, the lineup is missing Jose Altuve but it’s still a mighty lineup that he was able to beat.

The White Sox also possess a strong lineup, but that is much better against lefties. I tend to only attack them with righties and that’s what we’ll do today with Gray. He’s a slight risk, but he’s been really good to start the year. Look for him to have another really strong outing this afternoon at just $8.3k.

Blake Snell vs. New York Mets

This is also a risky pick, but the New York Mets just haven’t looked good vs. lefties for the past couple of seasons. As a Mets fan, I hope I’m wrong about this one, but I can really see Snell walking through this lineup this afternoon.

Outside of some control issues, Snell was able to do well against mostly the same lineup in the Wild Card Series last year. I’ll more than likely stick with Gray and Wheeler this afternoon, but if you can stomach it, Snell should do well today.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Jose Urena

I normally try to avoid this, but I’m going to a Coors team as my top stack today. The Cardinals get just a monster matchup today vs. an awful pitcher in Jose Urena. In 2 starts this year, Urena hasn’t made it past 2 innings of work. In each game, he’s given 4 ER and at least 1 homer. That trend should continue today vs. one of the better lineups in all of baseball.

Against Urena, I’m going to slightly favor lefties here. Since the start of the 2022 season, lefties have a wOBA of nearly .400 vs. him compared to just .300 for righties. That said, righties are still very much in play here.

I’m going to prioritize getting guys like Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Alec Burleson into my stack. Both Gorman and Burleson are priced under $4k today in what should be a splendid environment for baseball in Colorado today. They’ll each have the platoon advantage as well.

With the 2 of them being on the cheaper end, it will make paying up for Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt a smidge easier. If you can only afford one of the expensive pieces here, my lean would be Arenado as he’s swinging a better bat right now. We also can’t forget about rookie phenom Jordan Walker at just $3.4k today. Walker has so far hit safely in every game that he’s played. While he hasn’t full stat lines, the Cardinals should go ham today and Walker very well could be in the middle of it. And he’s dirt cheap.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Edward Cabrera

It’s going to be warm in Philly today and when it is, the ball travels in good ole Citizens Bank Ball Park. Cabrera has been shaky to start the season. In his 2 starts, he’s faced the Mets both times. He’s walked at least 6 in each of those outings. Against a strong Phillies lineup, you can’t put that many guys on and expect to survive very long.

If his control is off, he’s going to get pounded by this Phillies team. We’re going to want to actually prioritize the righties for the Phillies today. Righties have much better offensive metrics vs. him since the start of the last year.

Knowing that I’ll want to get Trea Turner, JT Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos into my stack. Castle is my favorite of the 3 as he’s the one really hitting the ball well right now. Over his last 3 games, he has 6 hits and has scored or driven in 8 runs. At just $4.2k in this matchup, he’ll be a lock in my stack today.

Just because we like the righties here, doesn’t take away from my love for Kyle Schwarber today. I love targeting him when he faces pitch to contact pitchers. This is the type of matchup where Schwarber can take one very deep into the right-field seats today. With Cabrera’s walk tendencies this season, the Phillies are a full stack for me today. He’ll be putting lots of men on and we’ll want to secure that correlation.

Seattle Mariners vs. Marcus Stroman

I want at least a piece of this game today in Wrigley. It’s supposed to be 80 degrees and the wind blowing 20 mph out to dead center. When the weather is like this, regardless of who is on the mound, the stadium plays like Coors. The ball just absolutely flies and runs get scored. Vegas currently has both teams with an expected run total over 5.

Stroman has yet to yield a run this season, blanking both the Brewers and the Rangers. I just don’t see that happening again today with how the weather is expected to be. These 2 teams combined for 23 runs last night and the weather will be even better today. The pitching will be better, but again, when the weather is like this it doesn’t matter much.

My core with the Mariners today is going to be Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Ty France, and Jarred Kelenic. Let’s get to Kelenic. After struggling mightily in his Major League stints prior to this season, he finally appears to be putting it together. With Edwin Diaz out for the season, it’s making that trade look even worse for the New York Mets. It’s still very early in the season, but Kelenic’s average is up to .330 and most importantly his OBP is over .400. The kid has all the talent in the world and appears to finally be comfortable facing major league pitching. He’s also only $3k today. He’s a lock for me.

Cal Raleigh isn’t in my core, but he’s also in play. He’s crushing the ball right now, with 5 barrels over the last week. At $3.8k, he’s a cheap way to get a piece of an offense with a 5 projected total.

MLB DFS Summary

There’s going to be a lot of offense today. It’s one of the warmer days to start the season and pitching is suspect today. Two of the better pitchers on the slate will be pitching in an environment primed for offense.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Play-In Tournament (Apr. 12)

Richard Masana 2 years ago

written by Richard Masana

On the second day of the NBA Play-In tournament, there are two intriguing matchups. The Eastern Conference side features two underachieving rosters. Meanwhile, the Western Conference side has two rosters set to contend in the near future.

Here is the NBA Playoff bracket with final seeding:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. In both this article and the Opening Round Matchup Breakdown articles, there will be rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Toronto Raptors (9) vs. Chicago Bulls (10)

Toronto Raptors (-5.5)

Introduction

Although they won an NBA Championship only a few seasons ago, this roster looks like it needs a massive overhaul. Scottie Barnes is a player to build a franchise around, and Pascal Siakam remains an All-NBA talent. However, the inconsistency of Fred VanVleet along with a combination of injuries and a short bench ruined the potential of a successful season for the Raptors.

Matchup

Despite an offense that thrives on switchability and getting to the rim, this matchup will be exploited on the perimeter. Outside of Alex Caruso, the Bulls do not have elite perimeter defenders. Yes, Patrick Beverley was added to the roster, but he is the furthest thing from an impact player when the cards are on the table. Moreover, the Bulls ranked 29th in the NBA in three-pointers allowed per game. This creates an excellent scenario for Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. off the bench.

Rotation

Coach Nick Nurse plays his cards tight. As he always has, whether it is a regular season game in January or the NBA Play-In round. Look for Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Scottie Barnes to garner all the minutes they can handle. Moreover, Jakob Poeltl will man the paint, while OG Anunoby flanks the wings. Elsewhere, Gary Trent Jr. will be the first guard off the bench, while Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher will pick up a few minutes in the frontcourt.

X-Factor

While Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam will lead the offense, no one is as important as Scottie Barnes. In the few minutes VanVleet takes off, Barnes will handle the rock. Moreover, his combination of scoring, playmaking, and rebounding makes him elite in all aspects of the game. Lastly, he has the most important defensive assignment of the night in guarding one of Zach Lavine or DeMar DeRozan at all times.

Chicago Bulls (+5.5)

Introduction

Despite having a lot of money committed to their “Big 3”, Chicago had yet another disappointing season. Only Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozan averaged over 20 points per game. Elsewhere only Patrick Williams (10.2 points per game) chipped in double digits per night. This team is not only severely limited on offense, but they are in one of the toughest matchups they could have possibly imagined in the NBA Play-In round.

Matchup

This is simply an awful matchup for the Bulls. Yes, the Raptors have underwhelmed this season after winning an NBA Championship only a few years ago. Gone is Kawhi Leonard, but the core of this team remains intact. Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby will wreck havoc on the defensive side of the ball, while the acquisition of Jakob Poeltl gives Toronto an interior presence they have lacked. It will be a low-scoring affair, and massive changes await the Bulls if they do not make it out of this game.

Rotation

Chicago can approach their rotation in a few ways heading into this game. The intelligent way to do would be offsetting Lavine, DeRozan, and Vucevic so that two of three are on the court at all times. Zach Lavine needs to lead the team in minutes if they want a shot at winning. Moreover, while he was inconsistent at times this season, Fred VanVleet needs to be guarded by Alex Caruso. Elsewhere, Patrick Williams is a good fit in this one, while Patrick Beverley will likely get more attention than Coby White, despite the former being useless on the offensive side of the ball. If Beverley gets more minutes than Caruso and White, there is no doubt that it will be the demise of the Bulls.

X-Factor

This issue for this Bulls offense is just how stout Toronto’s defense can be. When you have Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby guarding you, their wingspans allow them to contest nearly every shot successfully. However, Zach Lavine will have to be the key contributor tonight. Yes, DeMar DeRozan is the king of the midrange jumper. However, it is Lavine that will be able to not only create shots for others, but his own.

New Orleans Pelicans (9) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (10)

New Orleans Pelicans (-5.5)

Introduction

It was an underwhelming season for the Pelicans. After a torrid start to the year, where they went 18-8, the injury bug caught up to them. Zion Williamson was held to a mere 29 appearances, while Brandon Ingram made 45 of his own. However, this roster is well constructed and has potential. Ingram leads the offense, while a savvy veteran in CJ McCollum gives New Orleans stability in the backcourt. Flanked by two of the most underrated defenders in the NBA, the Pelicans look good heading into this matchup, if they can hold the young Thunder in check.

Matchup

An unsettling matchup looms for the Pelicans. While the Thunder’s defensive unit is far from elite, this is an offense that posted the fifth-most points per game in the NBA. On the offensive side of the ball, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum will carry the highest usage rates. However, do not overlook Jonas Valanciunas. Yes, his minutes are in question, depending on the matchup throughout the regular season. But in a one-and-done scenario, look for Valanciunas to dominate an OKC interior that ranked 22nd versus true centers and 28th in rebounding percentage.

Rotation

Considering the Pelicans roster is appropriately placed on the pricing grid tonight, there is not much interest in their bench. Additionally, this figures to be one of, if not the tightest rotations in the Play-In. Brandon Ingram will flank CJ McCollum in the backcourt. Meanwhile, the perimeter defensive duo of Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III have a daunting task ahead of them. Jonas Valanciunas will man the paint and is in a terrific matchup, as alluded to above. Elsewhere, Josh Richardson and Naji Marshall will be the first to come off the bench, as will Larry Nance Jr., should he be healthy enough. If not, look for one of Jaxson Hayes or Willy Hernangomez to pick up a few minutes.

X-Factor

No one will be as crucial for the Pelicans in this game as Herbert Jones. Yes, he has many limitations on offense. Not only did he averaged a mere 9.8 points per game on a horrific 14.5% usage rate, but his shot is incredibly inconsistent. However, Jones is a candidate for an All-NBA defense team this year and has been tremendous when guarding primary ball handlers. Thus, with a matchup against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the horizon, he will be in for a ton of minutes.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5)

Introduction

While most had the Thunder set for the NBA draft lottery, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had other plans. Not only did the Canadian break out this season, but he finished fourth in league scoring. Moreover, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams were terrific this year. Giddey came through on multiple occasions, averaging 16.6/7.9/6.2 on 48.2% shooting. Additionally, had it not been for Paolo Banchero, Williams would be the favorite for Rookie of the Year. JDub had a terrific run after the All-Star break and finished fourth in rookie scoring.

Matchup

Despite the loss of Zion Williamson, the Pelicans have a stout defensive unit. Not only did they rank 6th in the NBA in defensive rating, but they also allowed the ninth-fewest points per game. However, the backcourt of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey will give the Pelicans all they can handle. The Pelicans have two terrific perimeter defenders and this one will come down to who can outduel the other.

Rotation

Four players will seemingly not leave the court for the Thunder tonight. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, and Lu Dort figure to play the most minutes. Moreover, the duo of Jaylin Williams and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl will man the paint. Elsewhere, Isaiah Joe will be the first guard off the bench. Lastly, their minutes aren’t guaranteed, but Dario Saric, Tre Mann, and Lindy Waters III are darkhorse candidates, depending on the flow of the game.

X-Factor

The role that Lu Dort will have to play in this game cannot go overlooked. Yes, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will lead the offense. Moreover, Josh Giddey will be a force on both ends of the court. But it is Dort that will have to step up in a big way. The 3-and-D wing has a perfect game for the NBA Playoffs. He is an excellent defender and can hit the three well. In a matchup versus Brandon Ingram, Dort will have to excel on both ends of the court.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Play-In Tournament (Apr. 11)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With the NBA season concluded, it’s time for the best part of the season. The Play-In tournament was introduced three seasons ago and has been a great addition to the existing format. In a one-and-done scenario for some, every second of these games is crucial.

Here is the NBA Playoff bracket with final seeding:

Miami Heat (7) vs. Atlanta Hawks (8)

Miami Heat (-5.5)

Introduction

Despite their shortcomings on offense, Miami has one of the best defensive units in the NBA Playoffs. A one-two punch of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo on the perimeter and in the paint, respectively, is one of the best combinations in the league. However, the Heat will need to find a way to produce offensively. No player averaged more than 11.5 points per game outside of Butler, Adebayo, and Tyler Herro. Additionally, Miami had the lowest scoring offense in the league this year with 109.5 points per game.

Matchup

On paper and in real time, these two teams are complete opposites. Miami had the worst scoring offense in the league, while only being ranked 25th in offensive rating and 29th in pace. However, the Hawks posted over 118 points per game, ranking them third in the league. They also were 7th in offensive rating and 6th in pace.

Rotation

The Heat will only go as far as Butler, Adebayo, and Herro take them. On a two-game NBA slate, raw points are king. Thus, Butler and Herro make for the most intriguing options on this roster. Elsewhere, look for Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love, and Caleb Martin to see decent run. Other candidates, would be Victor Oladipo, Gabe Vincent, and Cody Zeller, but don’t count on it.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, Jimmy Butler will be the best player on the court. However, there is a good chance that Tyler Herro leads the team in scoring. If the Hawks play this one properly, they would have Hunter on Butler, Murray on Herro, and Young on Strus or Lowry. However, the Hawks have been reluctant to do so this season, meaning whoever lands on an individual matchup versus Trae Young will be crucial to a win.

Atlanta Hawks (+5.5)

Introduction

In an awkward position with a lot of money and term committed to multiple players, the Hawks stumbled into the Play-In tournament this season. Atlanta is still a key piece or two away from being true contenders, but they have a legitimate shot at winning this game due to their offensive firepower. In a year where offenses were taken to new heights, it was Atlanta who scored the third-most points per game, posting the seventh-best offensive rating amongst all teams.

Matchup

On paper, this is a horrendous matchup for the Hawks’ main contributors. Trae Young will certainly lead the offense, but Miami has the best perimeter defense in the NBA this season. Moreover, they ranked first against true primary ball handlers. Where Miami could be exploited is on the deep ball; the Heat ranked 28th in the league this season to three-point shooters, giving up 13.1 makes per game.

Rotation

Trae Young and Dejounte Murray lead a star-studded backcourt, surrounded by quality role players. De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, and Clint Capela likely round out the starting unit in this one. Meanwhile, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, and Onyeka Okongwu round out what can certainly be one of, if not the tightest rotation in the Play-In round.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, De’Andre Hunter will be the most crucial contributor not named Trae Young or Dejounte Murray. While both John Collins and Clint Capela have their hands full with Bam Adebayo guarding the paint, it is Hunter that will benefit from a Heat defensive unit known to switch Jimmy Butler onto primary ball handlers. Being one of the most promising 3-and-D wings in the NBA since coming out of Virginia, Hunter will be relied upon on both ends of the court.

Los Angeles Lakers (7) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5)

Introduction

Despite a season of turmoil, the Lakers turned things around to get into the Play-In tournament. This team has one of the best duos in the NBA, alongside quality role players whom were acquired at the trade deadline. The highlight of the season has to be the emergence of Austin Reaves, who will play a crucial role in the Lakers’ playoff run.

Matchup

In the absence of Rudy Gobert, no player has a better matchup than Anthony Davis. Moreover, LeBron James figures to dominate against a Minnesota team that struggled to guard primary ball handlers all season long. With Minnesota playing at a fast pace with like Los Angeles does, only with far worse defense, this one plays right into the Lakers’ hands.

Rotation

This Lakers rotation is surprisingly deep thanks to an overhaul at the trade deadline. Alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will play prominent minutes. Moreover, Jarred Vanderbilt and his defensive ability will earn him significant run. Rounding out the rotation, when necessary, are Dennis Schroder (when healthy), Malik Beasley, and Tory Brown Jr. There is potential for Rui Hachimura and/or Wenyen Gabriel to see some time if the Lakers make a Playoff run, but their minutes will be scarce.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be a difference-maker without being the consensus top talent on his team. In this game, the duo of D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will be relied upon to take advantage of a poor Minnesota perimeter defense. On the season, Minnesota ranked 25th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, which bodes well for LeBron James, but Reaves and Russell have enticing matchups versus Mike Conley, Taurean Prince, and Anthony Edwards.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+7.5)

Introduction

The Minnesota overhaul was a disaster. Rudy Gobert was acquired in the offseason for far too many assets, and it simply has not worked out. This offense is stagnant, relying on Anthony Edwards in isolation far too often. Meanwhile, the defensive unit has been mediocre at best. In a matchup versus a streaking Lakers team, the Timberwolves will be lucky to be in this game at the start of the fourth quarter.

Matchup

The highlight of this matchup will be the pace of play. Respectively, Los Angeles and Minnesota ranked 4th and 7th in the NBA this season. However, when the individual matchups are broken down, there is not much to like about the Timberwolves. Sure, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will handle a ridiculous number of offensive looks, but lining up on LeBron James and Anthony Davis is no joke. Moreover, Minnesota will be forced to rely on role players who, themselves, are outmatched by the likes of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Jarred Vanderbilt.

Rotation

Minnesota’s season was underwhelming after the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, and it was truthfully expected. In this game, expect to see as much Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as you ever have. Moreover, Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince will be forced into meaningful minutes. Since Jaylen Nowell missed five straight games to end the regular season, Jordan McLaughlin and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are the first guards off the bench. Filler minutes will be there for Austin Rivers and Nathan Knight, if necessary.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, the Timberwolves simply do not stand a chance if Towns does not have one of the best games of his career. With Rudy Gobert suspended and Naz Reid out for the season, Towns will have to stay out of foul trouble against Anthony Davis. This is not going to go well for Minneosta.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 10)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

With more and more teams opting for 6:40 start times, the main slate has started to become smaller and smaller. Tonight’s main slate is just 8-games, but that makes for a much more manageable slate of MLB DFS. We have Coors and we also have Corbin on the hill vs. a very good Angels lineup. We also have a repeat of the NL Wild Card round from last year the Padres making their way to Citi Field. This is shaping up to be a fun slate of MLB DFS.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Julio Urias vs. San Francisco Giants

So far to start the year, the Giants have really struggled vs. lefties. Through their first 60 AB vs. lefties, they’ve hit just .153 with just 1 homer. They also have a 40% strike-out rate and just a .213 wOBA. This is an attackable team right now vs. lefties and we’ll attack them with one of the best lefties in the game in Julio Urias.

Urias has had a solid start to the season. He’s sporting a nearly 28% k rate and an xFIP of just 2.72. When hitters have put the ball in play, he’s done an excellent job of limiting the damage by getting them to put the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his nearly 52% groundball rate. He should be able to dominate this Giants lineup tonight.

Luis Castillo vs. Chicago Cubs

Luis Castillo has started out the season with some impressive numbers. Through his first 2 starts of the season, Castillo is sporting a 30% K rate, while having an xFIP just over 3. He’s still yet to give up an ER and I doubt that continues too much longer, but with a date with the Chicago Cubs, an extension of his innings scoreless streak very well could continue tonight.

While the Cubs haven’t been awful to start the year, they are still an average at best lineup and one that Castillo should be able to handle with relative ease. A double ace combo of Urias and Castillo very well could be the combo that gets you to the winner’s circle tonight. A combined 50 points from the two is very well attainable.

Bryce Elder vs. Cincinnati Reds

If you want to go the cheap route tonight with one of your pitchers, Bryce Elder is more than likely the play. In his lone outing this season, he looked absolutely dominant vs. the Cardinals. In that start, he went 6 innings without allowing a single run. He also struck out 6 and gave up just 2 hits. The lineup that he’ll face tonight against the Reds will be far weaker than what he saw a week ago vs. the Cardinals. Can he do it again at just $6.6k? It’s absolutely in the realm of possibilities.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Before I get into my stacks I want to touch on Coors. Both teams are 100% in play. Anytime a team is playing in Coors, they are in play and you just don’t need me to tell you that. My goal here is to provide you with other options and that’s what I’ll be doing. I don’t want that to take away from the fact that both teams in Coors tonight have phenomenal matchups.

Seattle Mariners vs. Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly’s first start of the season could not have gone any worse. Against the Reds, he went just 4 innings and gave up 6 ER and 9 hits. It was a struggle for him right from the very start of the game and with facing a much better Mariners lineup tonight, we very well could expect to see the same thing.

The only thing that Smyly had going for him in that initial outing was that he was able to limit Reds hitters from inducing hard contact as they had a 16% hard-hit rate. One might say the BABIP gods weren’t in his favor. When you allow a nearly 81% contact rate though, you’re just asking for trouble and he’ll see some trouble tonight.

Core: My core with the Mariners tonight will be Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, and AJ Pollock. 3 of the 4 guys have long track records of being able to hit lefties well. Hernandez last year absolutely annihilated lefties with a .450 ISO and a .435 wOBA. He’s one of my favorite bats on the board tonight and should excel in this matchup. Rodriguez has hit safely in 4 of his last 5 games and a world of upside tonight.

Secondary: Other than my core with the Mariners, I’ll also look to add in guys like Sam Haggerty, Ty France, and Cal Raleigh. All three of them have good to solid numbers vs. lefties and should also do well in this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Patrick Corbin

You knew I was going to go here right? If Corbin is on the mound, I’m stacking against him and that awful Nationals bullpen. Corbin has now thrown in 2 games and has an ERA of 8. While that seems high, his xFIP of nearly 5 does indicate that he’s awful. After giving up a 64% groundball rate in his first outing, he ended up giving up way more line drives and fly balls in his second out. If that continues tonight, he’s going to get rocked by a team that has done extremely well vs. lefties this season so far. So far in 2023, the Angels have an OPS of .946 and a wOBA over .400.

Core: The obvious part of the core here is going to be Trout and Ohtani. Nothing that I can say here will do their talents justice. They are two of the best in the game. I’m also going to add Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe to my core. Hunter Renfroe lines up extremely well tonight with Corbin. Over the past few seasons, he has a .423 ISO vs. lefty sinkers and a .577 wOBA. He’s going to homer tonight.

Secondary/Value: Other important bats here will be Taylor Ward and Anthony Rendon. They should both smash in this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Wade Miley

Wade Miley is coming off a shutout of the New York Mets. Even though he gave up 0 runs in that start, his xFIP for the start was well over 5. To go along with his 3 k’s in 6 innings, he also gave up a 48% flyball rate. Giving up flyballs almost half the time is asking for trouble and this Diamondbacks team has some sneaky power vs. lefties.

Core: We’ll want to get Christian Walker, Evan Longoria, and Lourdes Gurriel into our lineups tonight. Walker had a .232 ISO vs. lefties last season and a wOBA over .350. I’m also very intrigued by Gurriel tonight. He lines up very well with Miley. Miley throws his cutter more than 40% of the time to righties. This is a pitcher that Gurriel has handled well in his career. Over the last few years, he has a .429 ISO vs. it and a wOBA of .482.

Secondary Value: We’ll also want some shares of guys like Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte. They’ll all have the platoon advantage and that’s extremely key when a lefty is on the mound, especially one in Miley. Miley is dominant vs. lefties but can be beaten by righties.

MLB DFS Summary

Even though this is a Coor’s slate, we’ll have plenty of options tonight. There’s going to be lots of offense to go around.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

UFC Premium

Al’s Fight Night Deep Dive for UFC 287

Allan Fabrykant 2 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

UFC 287

PEREIRA V ADESANYA 2

We’re off to Miami for today’s UFC card! Today’s much-anticipated action will kick off at 6:00 PM ET. Rematches, rising prospects and long-awaited returns. This card has it all!! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 13 fights that will end with a rematch for the UFC Middleweight title. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 287 Pereira vs Adesanya 2.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Kevin Holland

Something is throwing me off about Holland, and it’s making it hard to pick him in fights, even in fights where he’s the favourite. Holland has gotten into another backstage dust-up, this time with Jorge Masvidal, ahead of his main card matchup with Santiago Ponzinibbio. Thankfully, this time it didn’t lead to any fights getting rebooked. He will still be facing off against a game Ponzinibbio, who is coming off of a third-round knockout over a surging Alex Morono. Despite some bad luck, Ponzinibbio is a serious threat and one that Holland needs to take very seriously if he wants to win this fight. Unfortunately for Holland, I think he will get distracted and will find himself in serious trouble. His fight IQ has been a concern for me in the past, and if he wants to continue to have a career in the highest levels of the UFC, he will need to keep his focus on the fights.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Santiago Ponzinibbio UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible THIRD-ROUND KO).

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Trey Ogden

La Jaula Bahamondes is returning to the octagon for his first fight in over a year. In his last two fights, Bahamondes has been responsible for two of the craziest high-light reel finishes I have seen with a perfectly executed Brabo Choke (like an inverted guillotine choke) and a gross wheel kick KO. Ogden is not at a level where he can compete with Bahamondes on the feet. Ogden absorbs more strikes per minute than he lands, and his strike output (3.73 SLpM) is not even half that of Bahamondes’ strike output (8.33 Strikes Landed per Minute/SLpM). On top of that, if Ogden is thinking of transitioning to the ground, he will have trouble doing so, with Bahamondes sporting an incredible 95% takedown defence rate. Realistically, there wasn’t a lot that impressed me in Ogden’s win over Daniel Zellhuber and with a guy as talented as Bahamondes, I can only see Bahamondes dominating in this matchup.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ignacio Bahamondes SECOND-ROUND KO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Jaqueline Amorim vs. Sam Hughes

I am truly impressed that Sam Hughes is still on the UFC roster after a razor-sharp win against Istela Nunes and a win against Elise Reed. It seemed as though Hughes may have solidified herself a roster spot in the women’s strawweight division. However, after a decisive loss to Piera Rodriguez and now tonight’s matchup against a highly touted, undefeated prospect in Jaqueline Amorim, I don’t think Hughes’ future in the UFC looks all that bright anymore. Amorim, a former LFA champ, BJJ Black Belt and IBJJF champ, will be making her UFC debut following four dominant performances in LFA, where she secured first-round finishes in all of those fights. I am expecting Amorim to continue that trend today with a first-round submission over Sam Hughes.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jaqueline Amorim FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION. (BIG VALUE ON FANDUEL)

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Alex Pereira 5 ROUNDER (Between UFC and Kickboxing Pereira is 3-0-0, and despite a strong start in their first fight, Adesanya ultimately lost to Pereira via a fifth-round KO. I can see a similar story playing out tonight where Adesanya may control the fight early on and will fade as the fight goes on. Both these fighters are really even in skillset, but as we have seen, Pereira has gotten the better of Adesanya time and time again.)

Gilbert Burns (This fight shouldn’t even be competitive. Masvidal hasn’t won since 2019, when he beat Nate Diaz for the “BMF title.” Since then, almost four years have passed, Masvidal has lost two title fights, and I don’t see a world where he beats Burns outside of a fluke KO. Burns is simply the better fighter, especially when it comes to grappling.)

Adrian Yanez

Raul Rosas Jr.

Chris Curtis

Joel Pfyer

Lupita Godinez

Luana Pinheiro

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Karl Williams

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Ignacio Bahamondes to Finish +115

Jaqueline Amorim -250

Gilbert Burns -450

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 7)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Thanks to some questionable forecasts for storms yesterday, we have a really nice afternoon slate of baseball. What was supposed to be a 4-game slate, has turned into a 6-game slate. Those 6-games should be a ton of fun to both watch and play some MLB DFS on. Pitching is on the blah side but we have some good matchups and also some great spots for offense.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zack Wheeler vs. Cincinnati Reds

The Phillies were one of the teams that pushed back their home opener to Friday, giving us a great matchup for Zack Wheeler against the Cincinnati Reds. In Wheeler’s first outing of the year, he faced a much tougher task with the Texas Rangers. Although he gave up a handful of runs, he also struck out 7 in just 4 innings of work. This Reds lineup is a much weaker lineup (sorry Jimmy) and one that should help Wheeler get back on track and have one of the more dominant outings that we’ve grown accustomed to.

Alex Cobb vs. Kansas City Royals

Through their first 7 games of the season, the Kansas City Royals have scored 17 runs. They are part of just a handful of teams that still haven’t gotten out of the teens in terms of scoring runs. Outside of the top 3-4 hitters on this team, they are nothing more than a AAA lineup at best. It’s going to be a long season for Royals fans in 2023.

With Cobb, we have someone that had a decent start to the year. Facing a much tougher Yankees lineup, Cobb went into the fourth inning striking out 6 and giving up just one run thanks to a homer by Giancarlo Stanton. Cobb is a groundball pitcher and if he can combine his strikeouts with his groundball tendencies, he should be able to thoroughly dominate this weak Royals lineup today.

Hunter Green vs. Philadelphia Phillies

This is a wild card pick today. The Phillies haven’t yet looked themselves this season. They’re just 1-5 through 6 games and like the Royals, they are one of the handful of teams to currently have less than 20 runs scored on this young season. Do they have a strong lineup? Yes, but it’s also one that’s banged up.

This is a matchup that Greene could potentially really excel in. Last season, he had a 35% k rate vs. lefties compared to just 26.5% vs. righties. He’s going to face a lineup today that potentially has 5 lefties in it. He’s going to give up some damage, but the fastball-throwing Greene has a high strikeout capability today.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Dean Kremer

The Yankees get one of the best matchups on the board today as they take on Dean Kremer. Kremer struggled in his initial outing vs. Boston, giving up 5 ER in just 3 innings of work and also allowing 2 homers. Hitters had a nearly 55% hard-hit rate vs. him and a 64% flyball rate. What a deadly combo to give up! If he’s as hittable today vs. the Yankees, the Yankees can put up a massive number vs. him and the Orioles’ bullpen.

Core: Any Yankees stack needs to start with Aaron Judge. He’s got home run potential in every at-bat and with a flyball pitcher on the mound, that potential goes up exponentially. He’s already up to 2 bombs, look for him to add at least a third one to his total today. I also really like Gleyber Torres here. Torres has been one of the Yankees’ better bats to start the 2023 campaign. You could argue he’s been their best bat so far. He’s not only putting up numbers at the plate, but he’s also up to 5 stolen bases. In this new era of MLB, stolen bases have become more of a common occurrence. A homer and a stolen base aren’t out of the question from Torres today.

Secondary: Other bats we’ll want to target here are going to be Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMehieu, and Oswaldo Cabrera. A full stack of the Yankees is very much in play, with 4 as my preferred number. They should all be able to get to Kremer today.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Clarke Schmidt

A complete game stack of the game in Baltimore today is very much in play. Schmidt had a little bit of a rough go at it in his first outing vs. the Giants. While he was able to strike out 5 in just a little over 3 innings of work, he also gave up 2 bombs and 3 ER. Hitters had a 50% hard-hit rate vs. him and had 3 barrels. A nearly 1:1 ratio of barrels to innings pitched is one I like to see when stacking against a pitcher. He’s going to have his hands full with a very good Orioles lineup today.

Core: This Orioles lineup has been exceptional to start the year. If they had good pitching, they’d be in a much better spot. My core with the Orioles today will be Austin Hays, Jorge Mateo, and Cedric Mullins. All three of these guys have started out the year extremely strong. Mateo has shown both power and speed to start the year. He’s already banged 2 homers while swiping 4 bags. He’s always a risk to get a 0, but he’s also someone that has extreme upside thanks to his speed/power combo. Mullins is also in the same boat as Mateo. He’s shown power and speed to start the year.

Secondary: Other bats that will round out my Orioles stack today will be Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and Gunnar Henderson. Rutschman has really cooled off since his opening day 5-5 game, but he’s one of the top young bats in the game and can go off at any time. My favorite of the secondary bats is Ryan Mountcastle. He’s been hitting the ball extremely well.

San Francisco Giants vs. Brad Keller

The Giants get a great matchup today vs. Brad Keller. Keller is an average at-best pitcher who has back-to-back seasons with an ERA over 5. In his initial outing this season vs. the Twins, Keller did strike out 5. He also walked 4 and gave up 5 hits in just over 4 innings of work. That equates to a WHIP of pretty close to 2. One of the most important things in MLB DFS is targeting pitchers that put guys on. A WHIP of 1.93 is really bad, making Keller a prime target for stacking against today.

Core: My core with the Giants is going to be their left-handed power bats plus a right-handed bat. I’m going to be targeting guys like Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson, and David Villar. All three of these guys have home-run potential in this matchup. Conforto, after missing all of the 2022 season with a bum shoulder, had his breakout game yesterday. He reached base 5 times and even went deep for his second homer of the season. Expect more of that today. All three are extremely cheap today too.

Secondary/Value: I also like Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade, and Brandon Crawford. This lineup today has a ton of potential against Keller.

MLB DFS Summary

This early slate looks to be a lot of fun. We have some solid pitching plus some bats in really good spots. That Orioles/Yankees game looks juicy from a stacking standpoint.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Hot Shot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Apr. 6)

Richard Masana 2 years ago

written by Richard Masana

Rarely this season have we seen the likes of a FOURTEEN game slate. It’s hard to settle on one or two spots tonight and thus we have you covered with a number of possible options. Aside from reading the 4/6 NHL DFS article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning. If you like what you see, sign up for more Win Daily content here.

4/6 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET

*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings and are accurate as of the time of writing*

Toronto Maple Leafs (+135) at Boston Bruins (-155) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Washington Capitals (-165) at Montreal Canadiens (+140) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Buffalo Sabres (-110) at Detroit Red Wings (-110) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Ottawa Senators (+200) at Florida Panthers (-240) – 7 Projected Goal Total

Columbus Blue Jackets (+320) at New Jersey Devils (-390) – 7 Projected Goal Total

Minnesota Wild (+105) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-125) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Tampa Bay Lightning (-105) at New York Islanders (-115) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

Carolina Hurricanes (-175) at Nashville Predators (+150) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

New York Rangers (-150) at St. Louis Blues (+130) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Philadelphia Flyers (+230) at Dallas Stars (-275) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Chicago Blackhawks (+170) at Vancouver Canucks (-200) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Los Angeles Kings (+120) at Las Vegas Golden Knights (-140) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Arizona Coyotes (+290) at Seattle Kraken (-350) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Colorado Avalanche (-230) at San Jose Sharks (+195) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

4/6 NHL Favorite Line

New Jersey Two – “Jack Hughes ($8,500), Jesper Bratt ($5,400), Ondrej Palat ($3,600)”

I don’t think ownership really matters here with fourteen games, so I’ll do away with the whole Popular/Contrarian concept. Jack Hughes and the Devils have slowed their roll over the second half of the season after a very hot start. However, tonight they get to face off with the putrid Columbus Blue Jackets “more below”.

Not surprisingly, given Columbus’ struggles, New Jersey is a hefty -390 money-line favorite in this seven-total affair. Their 89 SATF over the last ten games is good for nineteenth among NHL lines over that span. More than anything else this is a matter of targeting the matchup. I mean, even the Montreal Canadiens were able to drop eight on the Blue Jackets within the last few weeks. I would not be surprised to see the Devil’s second line explode here.

4/6 NHL Second Favorite Line

Florida One – “Aleksandr Barkov ($7,500), Carter Verhaeghe ($7,300), Anthony Duclair ($4,300)”

It might be chasing but we picked the wrong Florida line last time out. They beat the Blue Jackets up 7-0 in Columbus just five days ago and Carter Verhaeghe scored four goals. While that sort of output is an anomaly, I think it is fair to say the Panthers are expected to score a few here as the total and -240 money line status both indicate.

The Panthers certainly have a lot to play for at the moment as well. Currently, they are one of three teams competing for two Eastern Conference wild-card spots. While Matthew Tkachuk is enticing, the rest of the second line is lacking. As a result, let’s turn to the top line and hope that a few days ago, it was the start of something special. Anthony Duclair has yet to break out since his return but this is the sort of matchup that might do the trick. If running this as a two-man stack, he would be the odd man out.

4/6 NHL Honorable Mentions “Two-Man Stacks”

Vancouver Two – “J.T. Miller ($6,600), Brock Boeser ($5,100)

Two skaters who are building blocks of the Canucks and in fine form as you can see from the graphic below. They are currently tied for second in the NHL in SATF over the last ten games. Vancouver is a -200 favorite against the Blackhawks in a 6.5 total matchup. I don’t need if we really need to go to Phil Di Guiseppe and a full three-man line here on such a big slate.

Seattle One – “Matthew Beniers ($5,000), Jared McCann ($5,900)”

The Kraken are -350 favorites in a 6.5 total matchup vs. the Coyotes. Much like all of the aforementioned lines you get the point. This line is also tied with the line listed above for second in the NHL in SATF over the last ten games. However, I am leaving off Jordan Eberle. It just looks like he’s not going to find the sort of form he had his first year in Seattle or previously with the Islanders. If he was $3,600 sure not for the $5,000 price which is around the same as the two listed skaters.

10-Day Sample Size – SATF “includes all shot attempts such as blocked shots and missed shots”.

Defensemen and Goalies

Defensemen

Devon Toews – Colorado – $4,900 “if Cale Makar is out, my top play”, Jake Sanderson – Ottawa – $4,900, J.J. Moser – Arizona – $3,600, Mark Giordano – Toronto – $3,500

Goalies

Marc-Andre Fleury – Minnesota – $7,600 – The flower has smelled sweet as of late, winner of his last eight of ten starts. He draws a homecoming of sorts here against the Penguins for a very fair price.

Alex Lyon – Florida – $7,700 – Winner of his four last starts, Lyon is a man on a mission. Florida is favored here, but I think Ottawa should put up a fair amount of shots. Therefore, maybe we can grab the best of both worlds for under $8,000.

Ilya Sorokin – New York Islanders – $7,400 – Great price on a potential Vezina winner like Sorokin. It’s a tough matchup but Vasilevskiy isn’t in the opposing net and the Islanders are favored.

Juuse Saros – Nashville Predators – $7,100 – A hit-or-miss option but great for tournaments. Carolina tends to overwhelm a bit in favored spots. Even if the Hurricanes win, it could be close and low scoring. Prior to a stinker Monday night in Dallas, he was coming off three strong starts.

4/6 NHL Best Bet

Los Angeles Kings (+120) – DraftKings – 1 Unit – Let’s take the plus money on what should be a great game to watch.

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2023 Masters Picks: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Augusta National Golf Club. Few places on earth evoke the same emotion from even the most rudimentary golf fan. Perhaps for you it is the legacy of the greats having won here. Perhaps it is the iconic Masters theme song. Or perhaps it is the stash of pimento cheese sandwich ingredients stocking your fridge, still costing just $1.50 on course, ready for the greatest weekend in golf (recipe here). Either way, we all know that this week is special in not only the world of golf, but for sport in general. And having successfully tipped 4 of the last 7 Masters (Willett, Garcia, Woods, and Matsuyama), hopefully our 2023 Masters Picks are special too.

It truly was a spectacular March where we bagged Kurt Kitayama at 60/1 after round 1, Taylor Moore at 70/1, and Nick Bachem at 100/1. That stunning run has elevated our profit further for the year to +13% on the DP World Tour, a whopping +59% on the PGA Tour, and +41% overall. That truly puts these selections within the top echelon of golf analysts. Long may that run continue.

Course Analysis

The first starting point for our 2023 Masters picks at Augusta National should perhaps simply state that the course is long. Very long. Ranking in the top 5 of the regular tournament stops for course length, this fact continues to go missed. This is possibly due to the few golfers who have managed to buck the trend, perhaps most notably with Zach Johnson.

This, however, is not the norm. Driving distance is a huge asset to have in your arsenal here. It should form a base for your 2023 Masters picks. The par 5 13th has been lengthened by 35 yards, ensuring that we will see many more players choosing to lay up rather than risking a trip into Rae’s Creek. Even then, Rory McIlroy described hitting a perfect drive and being left with a 5 iron for his second shot with the ball 20 inches above his feet. A daunting shot for even the most calm of heads, and surely further enhanced if in contention come Sunday.

Adding to this is that the fairway grass at Augusta is traditionally mown towards the tee, limiting run out. And, with wet weather forecast for this year’s tournament, this will see even less carry compared to previous iterations. Fortunately, the fairways are reasonably wide with less penal rough than seen on other courses.

What is at a premium for our 2023 Masters picks is iron play, with McIlroy describing this as trying to hit a corridor of just 5-10 yards in some instances or you will be off the green. Shot-shaping remains key and, famously, a draw is required on a number of holes to really take advantage of the topography.

Course Comps for our 2023 Masters Picks

Firstly, it should be noted that the best comp course for The Masters is actually simply itself. Augusta National has the “stickiest” course history of any regular course on the schedule. This is tempered (only somewhat) by the fact that this is a smaller field and often features many of the same names year on year. However, there are absolutely intricacies to this place which make it a unique test.

Good guides for The Masters can be found at Riviera Country Club, the Plantation Course at Kapalua, Liberty National, Muirfield Village, and the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook. All are less penal off the tee, demand long driving distance, and ball striking is at a premium.

The other notable guide has been the Dubai Desert Classic. Both Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia won the Dubai Desert Classic the year they won The Masters. The form lines go further than this, with multiple top finishes translating to success at The Masters.

Weather for our 2023 Masters Picks

Augusta loves to throw up a curly weather forecast in the lead to The Masters. This year has proven no exception, providing possibly the most challenging forecast to wrap our head around. Thunderstorms were originally forecast all four days. The threat of this Thursday has dissipated somewhat, with conditions to improve as the day goes on. Calmest winds are forecast for the evening.

Friday the chance of thunderstorms remains. Friday AM should provide the lowest winds all week. Rain should arrive in the late afternoon. This will sometimes be heavy. Winds should also rise substantially in the afternoon. However, Saturday could possibly be the absolute worst of it. Very heavy rains is forecast, which would see significant delay of play. Comparatively, Sunday looks at least drier and slightly less windy.

My lean, after much analysis, is that a Thursday PM/Friday AM start looks to shape best this year. This comes with it’s own risks. Any thunderstorms or delays in play early could completely flip this edge. However, I feel somewhat confident that some form of edge will develop and that it is most likely to be for the Thursday PM tee time groupings.

All up, this equates to a scenario where I can at least say this. Should the forecast remain as is, we will be looking at our first Monday finish for The Masters since 1983.

2023 Masters Picks

Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking

Rory McIlroy – Your 2023 Masters Picks Favourite
5pts WIN +750 Draftkings
5pts Top 5 +165 Draftkings
or 5pts E/W +700 (Multiple, with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Jason Day
2pts WIN +2800 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +210 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +2500 (Multiple, with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tony Finau
FUTURE 1pt E/W +5000 (Bet365, with 5 places 1/4 odds)
2pts Top 10 +210 Bet365 or +200 MGM

Min Woo Lee – Your 2023 Masters Picks Best Value
FUTURE 1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365, with 5 places 1/4 odds) or +15000 WIN Draftkings
2pts Top 20 +200 Draftkings

Ryan Fox
0.5pts WIN +20000 Draftkings/MGM
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +22500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 30 +220 Bet365 or +165 Draftkings

Taylor Moore
0.5pts WIN +23000 Fanduel
0.5pts Top 10 +1100 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365, with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 30 +175 Draftkings

Player Profiles

Rory McIlroy – Your 2023 Master Picks Favourite

Will this be the year? So often with regard to McIlroy, that is the question that crosses the lips of every golf fan entering The Masters. As subscribers of WinDaily will know, it is extremely rare for me to go to the top of the board in my selections. In this case, I believe it is warranted.

McIlroy stuck a calm and composed figure in the press conference this year. He oozed confidence, even admitting he has realized he This was in stark contrast to last year, where he was nervous and somewhat irritable. Perhaps, this may have been due to the cloud of LIV Golf appearing on the horizon. Ironically, he would finish 2nd carding a record equaling 64 on Sunday in what may in retrospect become his breakthrough moment.

Rory has spent extended time at Augusta National this year. He has already completed more than 81 holes in the last two weeks. With a new driver and putter in the bag, both have yielded immediate results for him. The driver of particular is of note. That is the cornerstone of Rory’s game. Finding comfort off the tee, with his prodigious driving distance, will be key to his success.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FG4c_QGn66o&t=167s

Rory and LIV Golf

I also noted that Rory played 9 holes with Brooks Koepka. My speculation would be that he simply wishes to leave no stone unturned in his preparations. Part of that involved putting himself in close proximity playing with a LIV golfer.

The fact is, performance at this year’s Masters is essential for the LIV Golf pros. For a tour struggling for relevance, this almost feels like the last chance saloon for them. Greg Norman has already thrown fuel on the fire by suggesting the LIV golfers would storm the 18th green if one of them won. As the face of the PGA Tour throughout this period, without doubt Rory will be doing everything in his power to stop that happening.

Conversely, this may benefit Rory as he headlines our 2023 Masters picks. We saw what he did at the Canadian Open after some inflammatory comments from Norman. The fact that his performance could become bigger than him and instead become a narrative about the entire future of the professional game of golf is, in my opinion, a good thing.

Finally, it was aforementioned that both Willett and Garcia won the Dubai Desert Classic the year they won The Masters. The 2023 Dubai Desert Classic champion? Rory McIlroy. His 3rd win at that event.

Jason Day

Experiencing a sharp return to form towards the backend of 2022, Jason Day is back! The resurgence has since resulted in a run of 6 consecutive top 20 finishes and a quarterfinal run at the WGC Matchplay before just falling short to one Scottie Scheffler.

It seems somewhat unbelievable that Day holds just one major given his prior high-flying status. His record at the Masters is decent, holding a 2nd on debut in 2011 alongside a 3rd, 10th, and a number of top 30 finishes. Missed cuts in 2020 and 2021 can be discounted given the abysmal state of his game in those years.

Day possess the credentials and the all round game to compete here. His excellent short game will be an asset in any torrid weather conditions that come his way. Over the last 6 months, he ranks inside the top 20 in every singles strokes gained metric including. Notably, he is also sitting 3rd for SG Total over the last 3 months in this field. I also love his putting stats on the pure bentgrass greens of Muirfield. He makes a compelling case for me, in what would be an emotional victory solidifying his return to the top echelons of the game.

Tony Finau

Finau already boasts a promising Masters resume, with no missed cuts for finishes of 10-5-38-10-35. He firmly put to bed the biggest concern of his game over the last 18 months: winning. 4 wins over that period saw him surge to the forefront of everyone’s minds. It does, however, seem he is going missed a little this week.

Since November, Finau has not finished outside the top 25 on tour. The majority of these have also included the top fields in the newly formed elevated events. Included in that run is a 7th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, which is highly correlated to Augusta National with it’s undulating fairways resulting in many approach shots with the ball either above or below the player’s feet.

Finau rates out as 4th in SG: APP, 8th SG: T2G, and 5th SG: Total in this field over the last 6 months. Those numbers only improve when looking at a 3 month window. A breakthrough Masters victory would come at no surprise, for a golfer we advised WinDaily to back here in July 2022. I still like him at the odds on offer now, given the continued improvement in his game.

Min Woo Lee – Your 2023 Masters Picks Best Value

The talented 24 year old Australian has long been ear-marked in my books as a potential major winner. In fact, his sister Minjee Lee has already done the job twice in majors on the LPGA. Min Woo Lee boasts prodigious distance off the tee, a key focus for me in my selections this week. He is one of my biggest movers this week given this and his weighted approach numbers to suit Augusta National.

He saw this on display in his Masters debut, where he finished 14th. That result was perhaps even better than it first looks, given he shot a 40 back 9 on Sunday to drop 4 shots coming home. I can easily forgive this for a young talented golfer suddenly finding himself firmly in the top 10 of the Masters. He has since backed this performance up with finishes of 21st and 27th at The Open and the US Open respectively. A recent 6th at The Players Championship again reaffirmed that Min Woo can produce his best at these high profile events. A second up win at big odds could shock many but the most astute pundits.

Ryan Fox

Patriotism aside, Ryan Fox profiles as one of the best outsiders at this tournament for our 2023 Masters picks. I’ll admit I was very drawn to Thomas Pieters in this spot, with Foxy just gaining the edge given the perceived tee time advantage.

Fox boasts huge distance off the tee, sitting 6th in this field over the last 2 years for driving distance. What he has found over the last year is a tangible improvement in his approach play, alongside gains around the greens and putting. 2022 saw Ryan Fox claim two victories, including the prestigious Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in a stacked field.

I do note it is his Masters debut. We have weighted the expectations accordingly. However, he profiles extremely well given his raw power combined with the long iron approach play and deft touch around the greens. A rare and dangerous combination for a player with such driving distance.

Taylor Moore

Finally, we wrap up our 2023 Masters picks with a speculative play on the talented Taylor Moore. Moore punched his ticket for the Masters with a win at the Valspar Championship. As mentioned, Copperhead may very well be a decent course comp to here. Patrick Reed was 2nd there before winning the Masters. Spieth won both in 2015 (although, he also just won a lot in general that year). Charl Schwartzel has also completed the double. He understandably has foregone a start at the Valero Texas Open to prepare for this event after the Valspar win.

Over the last 3 months Moore sits 16th for SG: Total, 13th for SG: OTT, and 15th for SG: PUTT. I love the fact he earns his strokes off the tee not just with his driving distance (27th in this field), but also by being highly accurate. A confident driver of the ball is always a great start at Augusta.

Basically, this is far too much value on this price. With fair odds sitting more in the 150-170 mark, weighting for margin of error, we can be delighted with the price being put out for him here.

Thank you reading our 2023 Masters picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

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