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AT&T Byron Nelson Picks: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC Craig Ranch Course Analysis, essential to our selection of our AT&T Byron Nelson Championship

It was another huge winner for this column last week, as Wyndham Clark secured a decisive victory at a huge price of 75/1. Another promising lead-in to this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson Picks!

We had been on Clark for quite sometime. Notably, his approach play had increased astronomically at the beginning of 2023. His Data Golf ranking was also substantially out of sync with his World Golf Ranking. This always provides a situation where imminent correction can be expected. We had also selected Clark the week before at the Mexico Open, as had many others.

A poor first round of 73 took him out of contention and threatened a missed cut, which was due solely to a lacklustre putting display. However, he followed this with rounds of 67, 69, and 65 to fight back to 24th. His price the following week had adjusted far too dramatically as a result and we were happy to pounce on the inflated odds.

Course Analysis

Although this tournament was first established in 1944, TPC Craig Ranch has only played host for the two previous editions.

The course this year will play as a par 71 at 7,414 yards. The 12th hole has been converted from a par 5 to a long par 4. This is a direct attempt to curb scoring, which has got a little out of control in previous tournaments. At the end of the day, although the overall score may reduce slightly, this is a relatively straightforward test for our AT&T Byron Nelson Picks.

One unique aspect of the course is the zoysiagrass fairways. This is relatively rare on the PGA Tour, only appearing at TPC Southwind and East Lake. This grass has been both praised and criticized by various golfers. It tends to play on the softer side, with players describing it as “if playing off a tee” as it tends to hold water better than other variants. Others have commented that the ball can come out with some extra spin and even generate some unexpected flyers. Fairways are wide and the rough is not overly penal.

Greens are large at 6,778 sq ft and a return to bentgrass greens, last seen at Augusta National. TPC Southwind also conveniently features the same grass type to further strengthen those ties for our AT&T Byron Nelson Picks.

The final remark will be on the approach buckets to target. This course features a disproportionate number of approach shots over 200 yards, accounting for a third of all iron shots. Further, two thirds all strokes occur from over 150 yards.

Course Comps for AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

Again, please be careful for your AT&T Byron Nelson Picks to use course history this week rather than tournament history due to only hosting the two prior events. In addition the two PGA Tour events, the course hosted the 2012 and 2008 Web.com Tour Championship tournaments. It also hosted a 2019 Korn Ferry Tour Q School second stage event.

TPC Southwind should be a key guide this week. The zoysiagrass fairways, similar approach numbers, and bentgrass greens provide a great correlation to TPC Craig Ranch. Additionally, this is host to the BMW Championship so elite performance in this strong field should translate nicely to a weaker event.

Other guidance can be found at TPC Summerlin, where low scoring and approach are key. TPC Scottsdale, another Tom Weiskopf design, also shares links to back-to-back winner K.H. Lee. Lee was runner up there prior to his first victory in 2021 and was the First Round Leader last year prior to his successful defense.

Weather for our AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

Another tricky weather week is upon us. I made a prediction on this week’s PGA Draftcast that this may end up a 54 hole tournament. Particularly, the Tour will not want to intrude on the build up to next week’s major, the PGA Championship. Thunderstorms are forecast everyday, with Saturday particularly looking very patchy. Certainly, any significant delays and a truncated tournament could well be on the cards. Significantly, this opens up options for in-play betting, as outsiders towards the top of the leaderboard may be able to hold on if the tournament is shortened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXcMYDUC_Og&t=2971s

Certainly, Thursday AM looks to be the lowest winds of the tournament. Friday PM also has predictions for the lower winds for round 2, although thunderstorms are also forecast.

I believe the Thursday AM/Friday PM is where any edge will fall. However, we are hampered somewhat by that thunderstorm threat, which may flip any edge which develops. I suggest building DFS lineups as 40% Thursday AM, 20% Thursday PM, and 40% mixed with a lean towards AM tee-times.

AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

Suggested Staking

Scottie Scheffler – Your AT&T Byron Nelson Championship Picks Favourite
10pts WIN Only +400 (Draftkings/Fanduel)
or 10pts Enhanced Win Only +450 (Bet365)

Seamus Power
2pts WIN +4400 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +410 (Fanduel)
or 2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Stephan Jaeger
2pts WIN +5000 (MGM)
2pts Top 10 +410 (Fanduel)
or 2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2pts WIN +6600 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +550 (Fanduel)
or 2pts E/W +6000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Ryan Palmer
0.5pts WIN +15000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +900 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +410 (Fanduel)

Matthew NeSmith – Your AT&T Byron Nelson Championship Picks Best Value
0.5pts WIN +15000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1100 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +450 (Draftkings)

DFS Core: Scheffler, Bezuidenhout, NeSmith.

Thank you reading our 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

DP World Tour Soudal Open Picks are available now in the WinDaily Discord Channel here.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 10)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Wednesday and that means day baseball! We have ourselves a nice-looking 9-game slate of MLB DFS this afternoon. This slate offers a little bit of everything. Solid arms and bad arms will be plentiful.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Clayton Kershaw vs. Milwaukee Brewers

We’re going to dial back the clock a bit and go with Clayton Kershaw. He’s facing off against a Brewers team that has been dreadful vs. lefties this season. This afternoon’s projected lineup for the Brewers has a strike-out rate over 28% vs. lefties on the year and has done little in the way of power as they have a .123 ISO and a .281 wOBA. This is a great spot for Kershaw today to rebound from his rough outing vs. the Padres. Look for Kershaw to have a monster day today.

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Cleveland Guardians

Eduardo Rodriguez is having a really nice bounce-back year after a pretty poor 2022. Over the last month, Rodriguez has an ERA under 1 and a strikeout rate of over 27%. When hitters have been making contact against him, it’s been mostly weak contact as they have only a 23% hard-hit rate.

He’ll be facing a disappointing Guardians lineup. This is also a lineup that has really struggled vs. lefties this season. They have just a .635 OPS and .281 wOBA. This is a spot where Rodriguez should continue his dominating run.

Other arms that I’ll be interested in today will be Christian Javier vs. the Angels and Merrill Kelly vs. Miami.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Kyle Muller

If it’s not broken, don’t fix it. The Yankees so far have put up 17 runs during the first 2 games of this series. With Kyle Muller on the mound, there’s no reason to think they’re going to slow down today. Muller has been bad. Over his last 6 starts, he’s given up at least 4 ER in 5 of them. The one time that he didn’t was against a below-average offense in the Reds.

In his last 23 innings of work, he’s allowed 11 barrels and 5 homers. Just a dream scenario for the Yankees this afternoon. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits in this one because his numbers have been neutral.

While Aaron Judge will be the main draw here, I’m going to look to prioritize getting three of his teammates into my lineup today. Those guys are Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and Harrison Bader. These 3 have been tearing the cover off the ball of late. In last night’s 10-run outing, they combined for 7 hits, 6 RBI, and 5 runs scored. All 3 of them have also been hitting lefties extremely well this season.

I won’t talk you out of playing Judge today, but make sure you also get these 3 into your lineup. With it being against A’s today, anyone that makes the lineup today for the Yankees is in play. Full stack here

San Francisco Giants vs. Josiah Gray

Josiah Gray hasn’t pitched poorly this season but this game today just doesn’t set up well for him. He’s a flyball pitcher pitching in a stadium that’s expected to have 20 MPH winds today blowing out to center field. Those flyballs that haven’t been leaving the ball will have some extra giddy-up on them today if they enter that wind.

The Giants have also been fairly powerful vs. righties this season. The Giants projected lineup today has a .219 ISO vs. lefties. If you combine the power of the Giants and the wind and Gray’s flyball tendencies, there’s the potential for some damage today.

The bats that I want here are going to be LaMonte Wade, Thairo Estrada, and JD Davis. Wade has been really good vs. righties this season, with a .411 wOBA and a .234 ISO. He’s set up to do well today. I also really like Estrada here. He’s been one of the more consistent Giants bats of late. Over his last 25 AB, he has 8 hits and has combined for 9 runs and RBI. He’s pricey at $5.5k but in a great spot.

I can also be talked into playing Joc Pederson and possibly Michael Conforto. Conforto is a little lost at the plate right now but has a ton of power and can easily take Gray deep today.

Other stacks I’m interested in today will be the A’s vs. Jhonny Brito, the Nats vs. Sean Manaea, and potentially the Tigers vs. Peyton Battenfield. With the A’s, a complete game stack of the A’s/Yankees game is very much in play. The cheapness of the A’s will counteract the costly Yankees bats and Brito just hasn’t been good.

MLB DFS Summary

We’ve got a lot of day baseball today and that normally means we really need to keep an eye on lineups today. Things can get wonky on day games after night games. The Yankees will 100% be my building blocks today.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 8)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Monday Funday and we have a nice-sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. We have some clear mismatches on the mound and we also have some glaring spots for offense. It’s looking like a fun evening of MLB DFS.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zac Gallen vs. Miami Marlins

The biggest mismatch of the day today will belong to Zac Gallen vs. the Miami Marlins. Gallen has been a rockstar this season. Over the last month, Gallen is sporting a nearly 42% k rate and when he’s not striking batters out, he’s inducing ground balls with a 50% ground ball rate. Hitters have just a 68% contact rate vs. him as well.

It’s still early, but Gallen is making a case for his first Cy Young award this season. He’ll surely be able to breeze through a Marlins lineup that has a 24% strikeout rate vs. righties. The Dbacks are huge favorites tonight and rightfully so. Look for Gallen to have a monster night tonight.

Dylan Cease vs. Kansas City Royals

To say the 2023 season has been a huge disappointment for Dylan Cease would be quite an understatement. If we look at some of his metrics, all isn’t too bad and the old Dylan Cease is still somewhere in there. He’s been extremely unlucky as his BABIP against over the last month is a massive .375. That kind of number can’t stay consistent and we’ll see some positive regression coming his way soon.

There’s no better opponent for that to come against than the Kansas City Royals. Yes, the Royals just put up a whole bunch of runs but they were also playing against the Oakland Athletics. They struggle against good pitching and they’ll face good pitching tonight. Look for the old Dylan Cease to appear tonight.

Other arms that I have interest I tonight will be Nestor Cortes vs. the A’s, Hunter Brown vs. the Angels, and Marcus Stroman vs. St. Louis (weather is not conducive to hitting tonight in Chi-town).

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. JP Sears

With it being a day ending in Y, we’re going to go ahead and attack the Oakland A’s and whoever they throw out on the mound. Now yesterday was a little bit different as the A’s threw out a competent start in Mason Miller, but once he left the A’s bullpen proceeded to give away 3 runs pretty quickly. Sears is coming off a start that saw him shutout the Mariners for 6 innings, with the bullpen proceeding to give up 7 runs in the final 3.

Notice the trend? No matter who they throw out, good or bad, the bullpen is awful and runs will be scored. The one area of concern here is that the Yankees lineup has some holes. They don’t have Judge (he should be back tomorrow) or Stanton. I just don’t care here as the A’s are bad.

I’m starting off my Harrison Bader. Although Bader has only been back for 5 games, he’s made his presence felt immediately. Over the weekend he was on fire, going 5 for 7 with 4 RBI and even a homer yesterday. He fell a double shy of the cycle yesterday. He’s still very cheap at $3.5k and in an absolute dream matchup today.

Other than Bader, I’ll look to guys like DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe. I preach this time and again, don’t leave Anthony Rizzo of your stacks when facing lefties. He has a .406 wOBA vs. them this year and that’s been somewhat consistent throughout his career.

Chicago Cubs vs. Miles Mikolas

I wish the weather was a little more conducive to hitting tonight (wind blowing left to right), but what a spot for the Cubbies tonight. Mikolas just hasn’t been good. Other than 1 start vs. the Giants, he’s been getting rocked. Over his last 28 innings of work, Mikolas has given up 9 barrels and 6 bombs. His hard-hit rate against is over 36%. Just not good numbers. Lefties are going to be important here as they’ve been crushing Mikolas. They have a .239 ISO and a 51% hard-hit rate.

You know what that means, enter Cody Bellinger. The rebound that Bellinger has been having this season has been fun to watch. While he didn’t homer this past week, he did go 9 for 29 with 6 runs scored. He’s been a huge part of this offense and one of the better off-season signings for any team.

Other guys I’ll look to here will be Ian Happ to get that lefty bat, and then Trey Mancini and Nico Hoerner. Rookie Matt Mervis is a solid value at just $2.2k. Can he get his first homer tonight off a pitcher getting walloped by lefties?

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Diamondbacks vs. Braxton Garrett, Giants vs. Jake Irvin, and Mariners vs. Jon Gray.

MLB DFS Summary

This should be a fun slate. We have a decent number of options both on the mound and at bat. With the weather being warmer today, look for the ball to fly out of the bandbox we like to call Yankee Stadium.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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Al’s Fight Night Deep Dive for UFC 288

Allan Fabrykant 2 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

UFC 288

STERLING V CEJUDO

We’re back with the biggest card of the month, coming by way of Newark, NJ, tonight UFC 288 is set to launch! Today’s action will kick off at 6:00 PM ET. There are great fights up and down this card and I can’t wait to break it all down for you!! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12 fights that will end with a long-awaited grudge match for the UFC Bantamweight Championship. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 288 Sterling vs Cejudo.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Braxton Smith vs Parker Porter

I honestly don’t understand how Braxton Smith is an underdog in this matchup. Sure, he started his career in 2014 with a loss to Chase Sherman back in 2014 but fast forward to 2022 and he started his career again but now he is coming into his UFC debut with five straight wins, all coming by first-round KO. Although Porter will be the toughest opponent Smith has faced to date, by UFC standards this is a gift of a debut matchup. Despite three straight wins early on in his UFC career (none were impressive, all three had a judge scoring the fight 29-28), Porter has since been on the receiving end of two first-round finishes and now sees himself on the chopping block if he can’t get a result out of this fight. Smith is a power puncher with great movement and can be known to let a kick or two fly if the opportunity presents itself. Realistically, the odds show Smith as the underdog since in five real fights, we don’t know too much about him, especially how he would handle adversity. However, Porter’s fight style is well known at this point and I have not been impressed with what I’ve seen out of him, at plus money, I’m going for the newcomer Braxton Smith.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Braxton Smith FIRST-ROUND KO.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Movsar Evloev vs. Diego Lopes

For those who follow MMA news closely, you will have seen that Evloev was initially slated to fight Bryce Mitchell but Mitchell unfortunately had to pull out with a Back Injury. A big setback for the UFC as they previously tried to make this matchup late in 2022, but it also had to be canceled as Evloev pulled out with an undisclosed injury. In this case, the UFC was able to find a short-notice replacement for Evloev in Diego Lopes who was preparing for a fight in Fury FC two weeks ago which also got canceled. So, we don’t know too much about Lopes except that he has fought in the combat Jiu Jitsu Worlds twice, he cornered Alexa Grasso in her title win, and he lost a 29-28 fight in the contender series as he was held down for over seven minutes by Joanderson Brito. If Brito can hold Lopes down for seven minutes, Evloev will be able to hold him down for an hour, Evloev is a Master of Sport in Greco-Roman Wrestling back in Russia and has a perfect 6-0-0 record in the UFC and has an average of around five minutes of control time in all of his UFC fights. What will be interesting to see in this fight is how Evloev wins. To date, he does not have a finish in the octagon but tonight will be his best chance to secure a finish tonight against a short-notice fighter making his UFC debut. Realistically, the odds are as they are because of how unpredictable the fight is. Evloev is the heaviest favorite on the card but the specific finish odds are split between finish and decision because both seem very possible. Overall, Evloev to win is one of the safest picks of the card, the difficulty is picking how he will win. (Not great value for GPP, I would only consider him for Cash Games)

MY UFC DFS PICK: Movsar Evloev SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Khaos Williams vs. Rolando Bedoya

Khaos is back!! After nearly a year away from the Octagon, Williams returns to fight against Rolando Bedoya who is making his UFC debut following an 11-fight winning streak. Bedoya has had some questionable matchups throughout his run of wins but has also fought some legitimate competition. However, nothing compares to the level of competition he will be facing tonight. Williams is in the top 25 of the UFC welterweight division and he should be able to finish this fight cleanly as the odds suggest. Bedoya may cause some problems for Williams early but as the fight goes on I think Williams’ experience will start to come through and by the second round, Williams will have complete control of the fight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Khaos Williams SECOND-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Aljamain Sterling 5 ROUNDER (This is a very close matchup. Although I have not been thoroughly impressed with Aljo throughout his career, he has been working very hard lately. He’s clearly putting in the work and his opponent hasn’t fought in the octagon in just under three years. It’ll be a lot of ring rust to shake off and I think Sterling can take advantage. I am not knocking Cejudo though, he can definitely pull a result out of this fight, but I am leaning more toward Aljamain in this one, especially as a slight underdog)

Gilbert Burns (It is time, Belal will get absolutely exposed tonight. He was able to handle Sean Brady but Burns is a different beast. Belal’s boring fight style will not work tonight, and the difference between these two when it comes to their ground games will be apparent right off the bat. Frankly, I think Burns has better hands than Belal, he can very much finish this fight on the feet. Either way, Burns is the better fighter and I am shocked that the odds are as close as they are tonight.)

Ikram Aliskerov

Claudio Ribero FADE

Kennedy Nzechukwu FADE

Charles Jourdain (Kron Gracie will have a clear grappling advantage in this one but I think that Jourdain will own the standup and Gracie has not fought since a 2019 loss to Cub Swanson, nearly four years of ring rust will have an effect on the fight)

Marina Rodriguez (This one is very close as the odds suggest, if there was more value on Jandiroba, I would suggest taking her to win because of the value but in this circumstance, even the odds are close. I’ll stick with the elite striking of Marina Rodriguez)

Drew Dober (Add this to your parlay, he’s gonna bully Frevola)

Jessica Andrade

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays (including the four legger below). Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Drew Dober to Finish -140

Ikram Aliskerov to Finish +100

Braxton Smith +140

Gilbert Burns -138

2 years ago 0 comments

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Wells Fargo Championship Picks: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Wells Fargo Championship Picks in a return to Quail Hollow Golf Coure

The Mexico Open shaped up as good as could be hoped for the PGA Tour, with two leading lights of Tony Finau and Jon Rahm duking it out for the title. However, it was very hard to argue there was any significant value to be found in those selections priced at just +375 and +700 pre-tournament. Unfortunately, it was therefore also a tricky week for our picks as a result. Wyndham Clark recovered nicely from a very poor opening round to move up the leaderboard significantly. Patrick Rodgers and Joseph Bramlett joined him in that upward trajectory. However, both finished in 10th and just one shot outside place money for us. There will be more on Rodgers and Clark in our Wells Fargo Championship Picks this week.

Course Analysis for our Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Certainly, the first thing to note for your Wells Fargo Championship Picks is the return to Quail Hollow Golf Course. The tournament shifted to TPC Potomac for last year’s edition, due to a clash in preparation for hosting the President’s Cup. Despite being quite a different golf course, Max Homa was successful in securing his 2nd Wells Fargo Championship. However, last year’s event can be ignored in your analysis as it shares little with Quail Hollow.

Most notably, the course is a tricky par 71 at 7,538 yards. That already tells us a lot that we need to know about the track. The penalty for finding the rough is not too significant. However, the ideal combination of driving distance and accuracy is a desirable asset to have. 75% of approach shots will be from over 150 yards. Additionally, approach shots from 200+ are once again severely disproportionate to the PGA Tour average.

Around the green is easier than PGA Tour average. However, SG: Putting receives a small boost. Putting from 5 to 15 feet has ranked 15th most difficult here, with over 15 feet ranking 7th on tour.

Therefore, key for our Wells Fargo Championship Picks are driving distance, long iron approach play, and an uptick in putting.

Course Comps for our Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Course form is relatively sticky at Quail Hollow and should influence your Wells Fargo Championship Picks respectively. Certainly, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook and host of the Valspar Championship, profiles well as a course that requires a similar profile for approach shots. It also features the same Bermuda overseeded with Poa greens as seen at the Valspar Championship. Additionally, Bay Hill requires long, straight driving alongside an uptick in long iron approach.

Certainly Caves Valley, host of the 2021 BMW Championship, is one of the most correlated courses to Quail Hollow. Form, however, can be more difficult find due to the reduced field and having only hosted the single event. Finally, last year’s PGA Championship hosted at Southern Hills Country Club should be a good guide of who to expect in contention for our Wells Fargo Championship picks this week.

Weather

Obviously, it is a difficult week to predict if there will be a weather edge for our Wells Fargo Championship picks. Thursday AM will see some increased winds which are forecast to reduce throughout the day. However, this is offset slightly by the fact some rain has been received on the course Wednesday and predicted overnight on Thursday. This should see the course play softer and, therefore, more receptive. However, it does also become imperative to have a modicum of distance off the tee with rollout expected to reduce from drives.

Friday AM should be the calmer winds of the 2nd round, before steadily increasing as the day unfolds. Particularly, this is likely to result in a slight edge to those playing Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. However, the mitigation of rain for those earliest Thursday will reduce the advantage to a predicted less than 0.5 strokes.

Latest weather forecasting can be found here.

Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Cameron Young
2.5pts WIN +2200 Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +240 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Sam Burns – Your Wells Fargo Championship Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +3300 MGM
2pts Top 10 +320 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +3300 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Wyndham Clark
1pt WIN +7500 Fanduel/MGM
1pt Top 10 +550 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +240 Draftkings or +300 Bet365

Taylor Moore – Your Wells Fargo Championship Picks Best Value
1pt WIN +8500 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 Draftkings or +320 Bet365

Gary Woodland
1pt WIN +9000 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 Draftkings or +320 Bet365

Patrick Rodgers
1pt WIN +12000 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +850 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 Draftkings/Bet365

Cameron Champ – Your Wells Fargo Championship Picks Long-Shot
0.5pts WIN +25000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 10 +1800 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +800 Draftkings/Bet365
And
2pts Top 40 +210 Draftkings or +275 Bet365

Wells Fargo Championship Picks DFS Core: Cameron Young, Sam Burns, Taylor Moore

Thank you reading our 2023 Wells Fargo Championship picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

Italian Open Picks are available now in the WinDaily Discord Channel here.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 3)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

On this fine Wednesday, we have a nice-sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS. Pitching, as has been the case on most slates this season, is very dicey. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, there are few pitchers in good spots. That said, we have a bunch of offense in solid spots so this should be a fun slate of MLB DFS.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Shohei Ohtani vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The 2023 version of the Cardinals is an absolute mess. A team that was dominant vs. lefties last season was held in check last night by Patrick Sandoval. He let up just a single run. This was a matchup that a year ago they would have scored a healthy amount of runs. Well, it’s 2023 and the Cardinals are really struggling. With how badly they are struggling this season, Ohtani should be able to have a ceiling type of game tonight.

He doesn’t come without risk though. Ohtani is coming off a start that saw him give up 5 ER against the Oakland Athletics. Anything can happen on any given day, but I do like the chances of Ohtani having one of his normal dominant outings tonight.

Louie Varland vs. Chicago White Sox

There’s no shot at double aces tonight so I’m going to drop down right to the very bottom of the salary range tonight. Varland is coming off a very strong initial start. Although he gave up 3 homers to the Yankees in that start, he also struck out 8 of them. His groundball rate of 50% in that start was also very impressive. If he can continue to keep the ball on the ground and have his 32% strikeout rate that he did against the Yankees, he could be one of the top values tonight on the mound.

Similar to the Cardinals, this is also a team really struggling. The 2023 White Sox are already 12 games under .500 and after tonight will more than likely be 13. When you’re dealing with a $6k pitcher there’s almost always a high level of risk, but I’m willing to ride that because there’s also a great level of reward here

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Chicago Cubs vs. Jake Irvin

The Washington Nationals will turn the ball over to Jake Irvin tonight, a pitcher making his major league debut. With Irvin, we’re not talking about a pitcher that is a top prospect. Most scouts predict he’ll be a back end of the rotation guy. Irvin has struggled so far in the minors this season. In 5 starts for Rochester, he has as 5.64 ERA and a strike out rate of just 20%. He’s someone that will most certainly struggle against big league hitting at the start.

It looks like all Cody Bellinger needed was a change of scenery to get back his once MVP-caliber bat. Since coming from paternity leave, he’s 4 for 15 with 2 homers and 5 runs scored. He’s a force in the middle of this lineup and one that I’ll be locking into my MLB DFS stacks tonight.

I’ll also look to add in Dansby Swanson. Swanson is one of the hotter hitters in the game right now. Over the last week, he has 8 hits and has 4 RBI. He also has an OPS of over 1.000. Other bats I like here will be Ian Happ, Patrick Wisdom, and Trey Mancini

Baltimore Orioles vs. Zack Greinke

With each start, it’s becoming more and more obvious that Zack Greinke is washed up. Greinke is coming off by far his worst outing of the year as he gave up 7 ER to the Minnesota Twins last week. Over his last 3 starts, he’s given up 15 ER. I’m expecting more of the same tonight vs. a very solid Orioles lineup. Greinke has been pretty abysmal vs. both sides of the plate so I won’t be overly concerned with splits here.

I’m starting my O’s stack off with Adley Rutschman. While the power hasn’t been there for me recently, it’s only a matter of time. He’s hitting the ball hard (45% hard-hit rate over the last week) and putting the ball in play as he has 9 hits in his last 20 AB. With a launch angle of around 12%, a slight adjustment and those hard-hit balls will leave the park.

I also like Cedric Mullins here and Ryan Mountcaslte. Mountcastle is coming off a monster night so his ownership may be exaggerated, but he’s always a solid play vs. a bad pitcher. I’ll also look to include guys like Austin Hayes, Anthony Santander, and Jorge Mateo.

Other stacks I like tonight are both ends of the Coors game, Boston vs. Alek Manoah (Verdugo would be the priority), and Seattle vs. JP Sears.

MLB DFS Summary

I plan on loading up on O’s bats once again. They helped me last night and they’ll help me again tonight. Pitching, I’m not straying from the 2 names I mentioned.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 1)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

After a long few days of having to worry about weather and delays/ppd’s, the weather is beautiful for our 6-game slate of MLB DFS. At first glance, this slate is a tough one. There are no true aces and few pitchers that are actually in good spots.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Drew Smyly vs. Washington Nationals

This is how bad pitching is today as I’m recommending Drew Smyly first. Smyly has pitched pretty respectably this year as he’s sporting an ERA of 3.21 and really hasn’t had a single start since his first start where he’s been blown up. The biggest concern here will be strikeouts. The Nationals don’t really strike out much vs. lefties. The projected lineup today has just a 17% k rate vs. lefties.

Smyly for his part isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He has just a 25% k rate on the year. I do think though that he pitches well enough to get into the teens tonight in terms of DK points and with how bad pitching is, that may be enough to get into the money.

Blake Snell vs. Cincinnati Reds

This is another tough one. Snell has all the talent in the world. He has shown to be dominant at times. There’s one thing though that he’s struggled with his entire career and that’s his control. He has a whopping 8.2 BB/9 this year. Until he can get that under control, it will be tough to consider him a top-tier pitching in the league.

That said, he gets a solid matchup today vs. the Reds. As a whole, the Reds have very pedestrian numbers vs. lefties this season, including a nearly 25% k rate. If Snell can cut down on his walks today, he has the chance to be one of the top pitchers on the slate.

Other pitchers I may have interest in are going to be Cal Quantrill vs. the Yankees if Judge is out again and Jose Berrios vs. Boston. Just know Berrios is never trustworthy.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Corey Kluber

The Toronto Blue Jays offense exploded for 10 runs yesterday after getting nearly no-hit by a spot starter making his major league debut. They have been one of the most inconsistent offenses all year and because of that, their ownership has been somewhat suppressed this season. This is a great spot for their offense to continue with the moment they built yesterday.

Corey Kluber is no longer an ace but a back-end-of-the-rotation guy at best. He matches up extremely poorly with the Blue Jays. He’s a flyball pitcher facing a team that has a bunch of guys that have flyball rates over 40%. A home run derby is not out of the question tonight.

I’m starting out my Blue Jays stack with Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette, and George Springer. Matt Chapman has been a beast this season. His average is up to .380 on the season and has already driven up 21 RBI. He also has a wOBA of .486. He’s been locked in all season and has shown.

After Chapman, I’ll lock in Bo Bichette. Bichette had a pair of homers this week and combined for 11 runs + rbi. Other bats I’ll look to here will be Vlad Guerrero, Danny Jensen, and Cavan Biggio,

San Diego Padres vs. Luke Weaver

A case could be made to start Luke Weaver tonight. He’s one of the few pitchers tonight that has any strikeout upside. That said, he’s also giving up a boatload of runs. Through 11 innings of work, his ERA is up to 7.71. He’s given up 10 ER so far this season and 5 homers. He’ll have his hands full tonight as he gets to take on a fully healthy Padres lineup. I don’t care much about splits here. Both sides have been crushing him this season.

I’m going to build around Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado tonight. Both guys have really been coming around. Tatis is only about a week into the season after finishing up his suspension for PEDs. Over his last 23 AB, Tatis has 8 hits and has an OPS pushing 1.000. As he gets his timing back, he’s only going to get better. He’s expensive, but he’s in line for a solid night.

Machado has also been playing, but who wouldn’t after playing in Mexico for a couple of games? That park makes Coors look huge. He’s seeing the ball right now so we’ll want him in our lineups. Other guys I like here are Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, Trent Grishman, and anyone else that cracks the lineup.

Houston Astros vs. Ross Stripling

I’ve never been a huge fan of Ross Stripling. He’s someone that gives up a lot of hard contact and a decent amount of flyballs. Often, those flyballs tend to go over the fence. I’ll be chasing that tonight. Through 15 innings of work this season, he’s already given up 6 homers. That’s not something that’s unfamiliar to him. They were down for him last season, but in the 2 years prior to that he gave up more than 2 HR/9.

When I play the Astros, I make it a point to play Yordan Alvarez. He’s a top 5 bat in the league IMO. Alvarez has quietly had a solid start to the year. While he only has 6 homers, he’s up to 27 RBI. With Altuve out, this lineup is built around him.

I’m also going to add in Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena. Pena is probably their hottest hitter right now. Over his last 24 AB, Pena has 8 hits and 3 homers. He’s hot at the plate and a priority for me. I’ll round out this stack with guys like Mauricio Dubon and Kyle Tucker.

MLB DFS Summary

This is a tough slate, there’s not sugar coating it. I plan on playing light tonight because there are field mines everywhere just waiting to explode.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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Al’s Fight Night Deep Dive for UFC Vegas 72

Allan Fabrykant 2 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

UFC Vegas 72

SONG V SIMON

After a crazy finish to last week’s card, we are back in Las Vegas to catch today’s UFC Fight Night! Today’s action will kick off at 4:30 PM ET. Lots of new faces are fighting on this card on what I think will be one of the more underrated cards of the month!! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 11 fights that will end with a matchup between two top 10 fighters in the UFC Bantamweight division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:30 PM ET

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 72 Song vs Simon.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Marcus McGhee vs Journey Newsom

We are starting off our article with the first of two short-notice matchups. Originally Brian Kelleher was set to face off against Journey Newsom and had been touted as a moderate favorite, but he pulled out on short notice. Thankfully, Marcus McGhee answered the call on short notice after coming off an impressive finish in LFA earlier this year. McGhee is a solid power puncher with great accuracy, and he can stand toe-to-toe trading shots if needed. Throughout his short career, he holds a 100% finish rate but has shown to be a bit troubled by strong grapplers, which Newsom is not. Usually, I wouldn’t give a second look to the fighters making their debut on short notice, but McGhee does have a lot of positive attributes in his fights and his opponent, Newsom, has not been on the best of runs with only one win through 5 UFC fights which includes two decision losses and a first-round knockout. I think for the odds we are being given on McGhee; he is a worthy pick for our Value Target of the night.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Marcus McGhee SECOND-ROUND KO.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Josh Quinlan vs. Trey Waters

Quinlan was initially scheduled to fight Ange Loosa, and he was going to be an excellent underdog play for us, but with his replacement, Trey Waters, Quinlan is now coming in as a -175 favorite. It is true that we have not seen a ton from Quinlan at the highest level, with two first-round finishes in both the Contender Series and his UFC debut, but clearly, what we have seen has been pretty impressive. One thing I want to point out about Quinlan’s game is that he has an insanely high strike output, it is definitely a small sample size, but he comes out of the gate hot, and he is going to put some pressure on early. His opponent, Waters, an LFA Welterweight champ, is making his UFC debut after fighting for his new title two weeks ago. I think it was a no-brainer for Trey Waters to take this fight on short notice, but there is a clear difference in skill level here.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Josh Quinlian FIRST-ROUND KO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Martin Buday vs. Jake Collier

Collier has been as bad as it gets. He has lost six of his last four fights in the UFC, with his only two wins coming against Gian Villante and Chase Sherman. It doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, to say the least. Not to mention, in his last two fights, he lost to Old Man Andrei Arlovski and got knocked out via Ground n Pound to Chris Barnett. I think it’s safe to say that when the 11-1-0 Buday knocks Collier out, his time in the UFC will be done. Buday’s only loss came against a top UFC heavyweight, Juan Espino, back in the Spanish regional scene. I don’t usually like to look at records to determine fights, but the difference between these two in their strength of schedules is so significant. It simply tells the story of how this fight is going to go.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Martin Buday FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Ricky Simon 5 ROUNDER

Caio Borralho (Overall, Caio Borralho is a much more advanced fighter, but Oleksiejczuk is very durable and can sometimes put enough pressure to steal a fight. I am siding with Caio, but I would not be shocked if Oleksiejczuk wins, and he has really good odds in what I think is a close-ish fight)

Julian Erosa

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Charles Johnson

Stephanie Egger FADE

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Rodolfo Vieira (By submission)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Marcus McGhee to Finish +250

Josh Quinlan to Finish -125

Martin Budy -125

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 28)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Friday and we have ourselves a nice sized 11-game slate of MLB DFS. We have ourselves a Jacob Degrom night. Our dilemma will be do we use him against a good Yankees lineup? We also have ourselves a Coors slate and that always brings into question whether or not to fade that game. One thing we’ll need to keep an eye on is the weather tonight. Things look pretty dicey in the northeast. The Mets/Braves should play, but anything can happen when it rains. The Pirates/Nationals game doesn’t have a remote chance of playing as it’s supposed to rain all day in DC.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob deGrom vs. New York Yankees

I miss him in the blue and orange. I talked myself into, “it’s ok, he’s always hurt.”. But man, when he’s on he’s the best pitcher of our generation and I don’t think it’s even close. deGrom proved in his last outing that getting pulled for the wrist issue was truly precautionary. In that outing, he went on to strikeout 11 A’s hitters in just 6 innings of work.

Over his last 26 innings, deGrom has an insane 42% k rate. He’ll face a Yankees team that is striking out 25% of the time against normal righties. That number will just go up against someone like deGrom. The Yankees will also be without Aaron Judge tonight, making this Yankees lineup that much weaker. deGrom for all the monies tonight.

Max Fried vs. New York Mets

As a Mets fan, it pains me to recommend a pitcher vs. them. That said, the offense just hasn’t been good of late. Although they scored 9 last night, they were coming off a 4-game stretch where the offense was laughable. They also haven’t been that good vs. lefties this season or really in the recent past. Fried has the chance to be one of the top pitchers on the slate tonight.

While he hasn’t been striking a ton of batters out, he’s been really good. His ERA on the year is a measly .6. He’s been doing this by limiting hard contact and flyballs. His hard-hit rate is just 12% and his flyball rate is less than 28%. If he can continue to limit the hard contact and fly balls, he’ll be able to have his way tonight vs. the Mets.

Other pitchers that I like tonight are Luis Castillo vs. and inconsistent Blue Jays lineup and Framber Valdez vs. Philly.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Anderson

The season started out great for Tyler Anderson as he shut out the Oakland Athletics. Since then he’s gone on to give up 16 ER in his last 13 innings of work. Anderson’s numbers this season look a little wonky. He’s given up just a 25% hard-hit rate, but he’s also given up 7 barrels in the 20 innings of work. This means he’s making mistakes and the opponents are taking full advantage of it when he does. We’ll mostly want the righties here. They have a .442 wOBA vs. Anderson and a .294 ISO.

I’ll start my Brewers stack off with William Contreras and Brian Anderson. These 2 have been the Brewers’ most consistent hitters vs. lefties this year. Contreras has been by far the best too. On the year he has a .250 ISO and a .458 wOBA. Over the last week, he’s also done well with 5 hits in 15 AB and an OPS over 1.000.

While Willy Adames hasn’t don’t well vs. lefties this year, he lines up well against Anderson. Other than his fastball, Anderson’s main pitch vs. righties is his changeup. Adames has a wOBA over .400 vs. this pitch over the last few years. This is a great get-right spot for him. Other bats to look at here will be Mike Brosseau, Luke Voit, and Joey Wiemer.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lucas Giolito

There was a time when you just wouldn’t want to stack against Lucas Giolito. Those days are long done. Gio is going to have his hands full tonight with arguably the best team in all of baseball. I like picking on Gio because he makes a ton of mental mistakes.

He’s already given up 10 barrels and 4 homers on the year. His 50% flyball rate is something that we want to attack. I’m going to give a slight lean to the lefties in this lineup tonight for the Rays.

The important bats I want here are going to be Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, and Josh Lowe. Wander Franco is one of the most talented bats in all of baseball. This is a matchup that he should be able to take full advantage of tonight. He hasn’t homered in over a week, but he’s 9 for his last 29 and almost always puts the ball in play. Look for him to continue his strong play.

He’s not a lefty, but Yandy Diaz has been one of the best bats on this team of late. He’s 12 for his last 30 and has a team-leading 7 wRC over the last week. And last but not least, Randy Arozarena is always in play. The Rays have one of the highest implied run totals for anyone not in Coors tonight. They should smash like usual.

Oakland Athletics vs. Luis Cessa

The A’s pitching this season has been atrocious. Their bats however have not. They’ve surprisingly hung around in many games this season that they had no business hanging around in. Tonight they’ll get a tasty matchup vs. Luis Cessa. Cessa is coming off a good start vs. the Pirates, but in the 2 starts prior to that, he gave up a combined 16 ER.

He’s someone that has struggled with putting runners on. His WHIP on the year is a massive 2.34. That means he’s putting more than 2 runners in an inning. That’s something I want to attack. Both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .400 vs. him this season so I won’t be overly concerned with splits. That said, lefties have been getting more power so we don’t want to miss them.

The 2 main bats I’m looking at here are Brent Rooker and Jesus Aguilar. Rooker has been by far their best bat this season. Over the last week, he’s 6 for 22 with 3 bombs. He’s crushed righties this season with a .400 ISO and a .491 wOBA. His price is still just $3.4k and is a great value. Aguilar also had a solid week. Over his last 20 AB, he has 3 homers and 4 barrels. He’s seeing the ball well right now and should be able to do well vs. Cessa tonight.

Other bats to look at here are Jace Peterson and Conner Capel. Also, a complete game stack is very much in play here. Both sides should get in some offense tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

We’ll want to monitor the weather carefully tonight as there are a handful of games that could be delayed or PPD.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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Mexico Open Picks & Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Vidanta Vallarta golf course analysis plays part again for our Mexico Open Picks

It was yet another winner for DeepDiveGolf and WinDaily at the Zurich Classic. Nick Hardy and Davis Riley scored their debut victory and got the win done for us at 45/1. It was nearly another Trans-Atlantic double, with Calum Hill (90/1) finishing just one shot outside the playoff in Japan on the DP World Tour. We secured a full place payout from him as well as Top 20 place money. We also had Wyndham Clark and Beau Hossler in our selections, who lead after each of the first three rounds. Ultimately, they finished up in 3rd fading slightly in the final round. Again, it was another full place payout. What a great way to enter what feels a fantastic opportunity to target with our Mexico Open Picks!

The Jon Rahm Conversation

It seems apropos to begin this week with a paragraph on what to do about Jon Rahm. The defending champion here arrives in even better form than he did last year. He has won an astonishing 43% of his starts since October 2022. And, you can argue that this week is an even weaker field.

On the flip side, I think it is difficult to argue there is value in the +270 currently on offer. Inevitably, it becomes a conversation of Rahm vs the field. If anything, he is priced fairly in the market at best. The end of the day, this is still a PGA Tour event with a number of challengers capable of winning an event like this on their day. There are 143 other golfers playing this week. Rebounding for another victory after winning a major is not the easiest feat. In that, I prefer the field for our Mexico Open picks from a betting standpoint. If Rahm wins at extremely short odds, then c’est la vie.

For DFS purposes, I will be at field average with 40% of my lineups built with Rahm. Again, at his DFS price he needs to realistically needs to finish Top 3 to justify the value. Yes, he is miles ahead of the rest of the field and has one of the highest floors. Anything less than a Top 10 would be a shock. Hence, he requires inclusion in some capacity. I just will not be overweight on him and will hope that one of our other charges can take the title.

Course Analysis for our Mexico Open Picks

Vidanta Vallarta golf course once again plays host this week. With the inaugural event last year, much has been made that there is a lack of data entering the week. I more come at this from a perspective that we really know everything we need to about this track.

The resort style course plays as a long par 71 at 7,456 yards. Several holes had distance added in the sole defense to PGA Tour players. Consequently, the Par 4 and Par 5s average length ranked as the longest on the PGA Tour in 2022 at 496 yards. However, the greens ranked as some of the easiest around the green. It is Paspalum grass tee to green. Generally, this sturdy grass is often in seaside locations and is resistant to salt air. As such, it tends to play slower. This will prevent rollout on drives and on the greens particularly.

The simple answer for our Mexico Open picks is Driving Distance and Approach 200+ yards (with a further weighting added for Approach 175-200).

In last year’s rendition, of the top 14 players on the leaderboard, 11 ranked in the top 24 for driving distance for the week. Further, 9 of the top 14 players finished in the top 20 for driving distance and 4 of the top 7 ranked in the top 10 for driving distance. We also find a resulting increase in long approach proximity. 35% of shots will occur from 200+ yards, with another big increase for 175-200 yards. This is hugely disproportionate to PGA Tour averages. It should be factored in accordingly.

Course Comps for our Mexico Open Picks

With paspalum grass a rather unique feature of this track, we want to look to other long courses using this grass type. This invariably ties into other coastal and tropical tournaments. This is additionally beneficial, as the strength of field (or lack thereof) tends to mirror that found this week.

The leading course of those is the Corales Golf Club, host of the Corales Puntacana Championship. This course should feature heavily in your Mexico Open Picks. Other correlated form can be found at the Grand Reserve Golf Club, host of the Puerto Rico Open. Finally, the Bermuda Championship host of Port Royal Golf Course should be considered.

I’d also suggest, given the strength of field, to consider a few of the Korn Ferry Tour events. The Bahamas tournaments (Great Abaco Classic and Great Exuma Classic), Astara Golf Championship, and LECOM Suncoast Classic should all be considred.

Weather

A very brief weather report this week. There is little to no wind forecast all week. Mornings will tend to play a little easier, with winds increasing mildly in the afternoon and greens also firming as the day goes on. However, winds will be in single digits all week and scoring will be lower than in 2022.

Current forecast is here: https://www.windy.com/20.682/-105.285?gfs,20.095,-105.285,8

Mexico Open Picks – Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Wyndham Clark
2.5pts WIN +2000 MGM
2.5pts Top 10 +190 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Nicolai Hojgaard – Your Mexico Open Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +3000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +280 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Patrick Rodgers
2pts WIN +3000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +280 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Alex Smalley
2pts WIN +6500 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +470 Fanduel
or 2pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Will Gordon
2pts WIN +7000 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +490 Fanduel
or 2pts E/W +6000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Joseph Bramlett
2pts WIN +6600 MGM
2pts Top 10 +500 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Martin Trainer – Your Mexico Open Picks Best Longshot
0.5pts WIN +20000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 Fanduel/MGM or +800 Bet365
And
2pts Top 40 +260 Fanduel

DFS Core: Wyndham Clark, Nicolai Hojgaard, Martin Trainer

Thank you reading our 2023 Mexico Open picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Course Analysis

Course Comps for AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

Weather for our AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

Suggested Staking

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Clayton Kershaw vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Cleveland Guardians

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Kyle Muller

San Francisco Giants vs. Josiah Gray

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zac Gallen vs. Miami Marlins

Dylan Cease vs. Kansas City Royals

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. JP Sears

Chicago Cubs vs. Miles Mikolas

UFC 288

STERLING V CEJUDO

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Course Analysis for our Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Course Comps for our Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Weather

Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Shohei Ohtani vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Louie Varland vs. Chicago White Sox

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Zack Greinke

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Drew Smyly vs. Washington Nationals

Blake Snell vs. Cincinnati Reds

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

San Diego Padres vs. Luke Weaver

Houston Astros vs. Ross Stripling

MLB DFS Summary

UFC Vegas 72

SONG V SIMON

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob deGrom vs. New York Yankees

Max Fried vs. New York Mets

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lucas Giolito

Oakland Athletics vs. Luis Cessa

MLB DFS Summary

The Jon Rahm Conversation

Course Analysis for our Mexico Open Picks

Course Comps for our Mexico Open Picks

Weather

Mexico Open Picks – Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

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