Fantasy

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.

Quarterback 

Jared Goff

Jared Goff is this week’s Baker Mayfield, and Mayfield is going to have a front-row seat to witness it. In Week 1, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t show any sign of improving from last season as they are currently ranked 20th in DVOA against receivers. This is a Tampa secondary that allowed the 4th most receiving yards through the regular season in 2023 while only giving up 5 rushing TDs. Quite frankly they got bailed out last week going up against rookie Jaylen Daniels who attempted only 2 passes over 20+ yards, and 1 pass over 30+ yards. Goff and the boys should rip them apart in their first home game.

The starting slot corner for the Buccaneers, rookie Tykee Smith, is questionable. If he is out, then the Bucs have no one reliable (not that he was reliable) who can step in and cover the slot. Guess who runs out of the slot the most for the Lions? That would be Amon-Ra St. Brown (56.3% in Week 1). The Bucs are also down a safety and two backup corners. Starting left corner, Zion McCollum, returned to practice after leaving Week 1’s matchup with a concussion and will still need to clear protocol to be active. Veteran Jamal Dean man’s the right side of the field (82% in Week 1), and he gave up the most YPRC (1.28). He will see a mix of the Lions receivers, but mostly Jameson Williams (questionable) who is coming off a breakout game.

I do want Williams out there to help give me more confidence in playing Goff. If he is out I wouldn’t mind pivoting to Brock Purdy or a spend-up option like Lamar Jackson. If you find yourself without Goff, I still think you want one of his pass catchers – especially Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta.

Other top options:

• Lamar Jackson: He is your elite spend-up option. If salary is not an issue, he is your top QB.
• Brock Purdy: Makes a ton of sense if you fade Jordan Mason, doesn’t it?

Running Back 

Derrick Henry

Thanks for the amazing value DraftKings! Henry comes in at only $6,700 in a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who just put J.K. Dobbins back on the map as he ripped off 135 rushing yards on only 10 carries. The combination of Dobbins and Gus Edwards put up the 9th most RB DraftKings points (29.7) in Week 1 with 21 carries. The Raiders are ranked 27th in Stuffed percentage. That isn’t going to go well against Henry who has made a career of running downhill and breaking tackles. I don’t need to rattle off Henry’s stats. We all know what he is capable of. His mid-tier salary is a gift from the fantasy Gods.

If you do decide to go a different route at RB, and fade Henry, you would be wise to get Lamar Jackson in your lineup. One of them is going to have a big, big day.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Panthers got destroyed again on the ground in Week 1. They allowed the second most fantasy points to be scored on them in the league. That’s more than the Broncos (Ken Walker + Zach Charbonnet), Dolphins (James Cook), Rams (Gibbs + Montgomery) and the Bills (De’Von Achane). All this production came from a combination of 5 different New Orleans Saints. Now they face an explosive, elusive back in J.K. Dobbins who just put up the second-most yards after contact (71) in Week 1. The YPC (13.5) for Dobbins is going to be hard to replicate, nonetheless, if he stays healthy, it is a fantastic matchup for him and the Chargers. Gus Edwards is going to be a tougher click, but one that should be highly considered. He is just as likely, if not more so to get the goal line carries. I don’t expect the yardage of Dobbins, but his getting in the endzone more wouldn’t be shocking. If I have to pick one, I won’t get cute with it. I will just take Dobbins again for the chunk play upside.

We also need to realize that the Chargers WR1, Joshua Palmer, is questionable making an already bad receiving core worse.

Jordan Mason

Is it hard to run on the Vikings? It appears so. Is it also hard to run on the Jets? On paper, it should have been much more difficult than the 49ers made it look. Jordan Mason is only $5,200 on DraftKings running behind a phenomenal offensive line. MIN is currently ranked 4th in DVOA against the run, which seems high. Last season they allowed 20.9 DK points per game to RBs, which was middle of the pack. In Week 1 they shut down the Giants run game but the NY Offense as a whole was in shambles. I will bet on the cheap price and talent of SF to at least do enough to exceed value for the discount RB.

Zach Charbonet note:

The Patriots held Zach Moss to fantasy irrelevancy in Week 1, but the running game script got away from the Bengals in a hurry. Charbonnet was very unproductive on the ground (1.5 yards per carry) against a terrible Broncos team. If Week 1 is any indicator, he will get his points in the passing game. He isn’t min-priced, but he is still cheap to roll out as an RB2 or RB3. The Pats did give up the 9th most receptions to backs in 2023 so he has that going for him.

Others to consider for GPP upside/ownership:

• Jonathan Taylor: The Packers got destroyed by Saquan Barkley on TNF in the first game of the season. They allowed the single best combined RB performance of the week (38.4 DK points). Taylor is the highest-priced RB and comes in at only 6% owned. He is a fantastic way to spend up to be contrarian while also fading Anthony Richardson.
• Josh Jacobs: The Packers know they don’t have a chance with Malik Willis helming QB, so their best move is to see what Jacobs has in the tank, in the same matchup the Joe Mixon exploited in Week 1. The Colts should enter the game with a heavy focus on stopping the run, the question is “Are they capable?” Judging from last week, and the previous season, they are not.
• Tony Pollard: This is the matchup that Jordan Mason just had on MNF. Either the matchup is fantastic for running backs, or the 49er’s OLine and Jordan Mason’s talent are elite. One of these things has to be true. I prefer option 2.
• Jerome Ford: Solid running in Week 1 and used in the passing game more than expected.
• Jahmyr Gibbs

Wide Receiver 

Cooper Kupp/Demarcus Robinson

He is coming off a league-leading 21 targets, largely due to Puka Nacua leaving the game early and the game script. This week the Rams take on the Arizona Cardinals. They are ranked 26th in DVOA against the WR1. Kupp will run out of the slot around 60% of the time against Garrett Williams. He will move to the left side of the field for about 26% of snaps against either Sean Murphy-Bunting (1.12 YPRC) or Starling Thomas (1.80 YPRC). On a volume-based approach, which is how you play DFS to a large extent, Kupp will lead the way for the Rams, and maybe the league again in Week 2.

If you are looking at who will have the most positive primary matchup of the game, it is Demarcus Robinson who should be on the left side of the field for around 45% of his snaps. He only costs $4,000 on DraftKings and is a fantastic salary saver. He is a priority if you fade Kupp.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

See Jared Goff’s write-up. He is my favorite receiver on the slate.

Brandon Aiyuk

We have established that the Vikings are perhaps above average against the run. All over the industry, there are conflicting rankings on how good they are against the run, depending on which site you visit. As far as the secondary goes I see the same thing. They played the Giants in Week 1, who are just terrible, so you can’t rely on those stats. I did notice that all three of the Viking’s starting corners ranked in the bottom 50 of YPRC in Week 1, which is not encouraging for their chances moving forward. Brandon Aiyuk is going to get the best on paper matchup against a mix of Shaquill Griffin, Byron Murphy Jr., and Stephon Gilmore. All three corners allowed over a 1.09 YPRC and over 10 air yards per target. Aiyuk has the highest projected target share on the 49ers while also having the second-highest yards-per-route run in Week 1, only behind Tyreek Hill. He is the best pivot off the 49er’s run game when the masses are likely to chase the Deebo game.

Ladd McConkey

This is more of a play if Joshua Palmer is out or limited. He should lead the Chargers in targets against a bad secondary in Carolina.

Others to consider/mix in MME

• CeeDee Lamb
• Malik Nabers: Faces the worst team against WR1 on the slate, but Daniel Jones.
• Xaivor Worthy: Best primary matchup against the Bengals based on air yards and YPRC.
• Tyler Lockett: DK Metcalf is going to be shadowed by Christian Gonzalez.
• DJ Moore
• Luke McCaffrey
• Allen Lazard: Yes his touchdowns were a bit flukey, but the WR2/ 3 for Aaron Rodgers gets the benefit of L’Jarius Sneed shadowing Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams still on a snap count. He is $3,300 on DraftKings.

Tight End 

Sam LaPorta

I have already made a case for Goff and the Detroit Lions offense, but I didn’t touch on the tight end. LaPorta gets one of the key matchups of the slate, along with Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Tampa defense is atrocious guarding tight ends. last season they allowed the third most fantasy points to the position (14.9). They gave up the third most receptions and the third most total yards. They were targeted at the highest rate in the league.

Theo Johnson

He is your tight-end salary saver this week. Last week spending down on the guys I wrote up was technically the way to go as every single tight end busted. If that happens again Theo Johnson can do essentially nothing and still be a quality play. But I do expect more than nothing. He played 86% of snaps last week while getting 4 targets. He takes on what could very easily be the worst pass defense in the league. Daniel Jones attempted 7 10+ yard passes, 2 20+ yard passes, and no passes over 30+ yards. This is the tight-end sweet spot, we just need Daniel Jones to show up somewhat in the easiest matchup he will have all season.

Taysom Hill

His price dropped to $3,900 this week. He is coming off 5 rushing attempts and two targets (one that should have been a touchdown). If you knew you were getting that small rushing floor with any tight end, wouldn’t you take it? If you knew they have Taysom RedZone packages wouldn’t you highly consider him? I think you have to when the offseason hype has died down a bit. The Saints steamrolled the Panthers so there was no real incentive to show everything they were capable of with HIll. This game should be much closer, and although the Cowboys have a good defense it is difficult to prepare for what Hill does. Just think about how we think about him as DFS players. We do not know how he is going to score but we know that he is a threat week in and week out. The Saints can disguise how they are going to get Hill the ball, and if he scores a rushing TD you are going to have to have him.

Others to consider: 

• Travis Kelce
• Hayden Hurst

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. I can already tell you I will be adding another running back in the morning.

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.

Quarterback 

Baker Mayfield

Per last season, load up a quarterback against the Washington Commanders. They were ranked dead last in DVOA (per FTN data), against the position. The opposing teams perceived WR1 did the most damage to the Commanders (as they rank 32^nd against the position) giving up the most yardage per game. Through 17 Weeks the Commanders gave up the most total yards to all receivers combined, and the most receiving TDs (29) while being targeted at only the 11th-highest rate. Mayfield found his stride at the end of last season, and now the Bucs add a talented receiver in Jalen McMillian. Add that to the already dynamic duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, as well as pass-catching back Rachaad White and you have yourself a serious air attack, if the Bucs O-Line can keep Baker clean.  

There will be more on the individual receiving matchups in the Wide Receiver section below.  

Justin Fields note

This is conditional if Fields were to start. 

It is only a Week 1 and we might already might have a min-priced Justin Fields going up against a poor defensive line, with a much-improved secondary, in his hometown of Atlanta. With what Fields can do with his legs, and this week’s pricing, I don’t think playing him naked or paring him with George Pickens is out of the question. The main concern is how Arthur Smith will manage to screw up his rushing upside. The $5,000 price tag must be seriously considered if you find it necessary to spend up at other positions. 

Others to consider:

• Josh Allen 
• Trevor Lawrence 
• Geno Smith (if fading Kenneth Walker)
• I am fading the rookie QB’s until they get a few games under their belt

Running Back 

Kenneth Walker

The Denver Broncos should have one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL. They are filled with inexperience and unreliable commodities, outside of Zach Allen. In 2023 were the second-worst team vis DVOA against the run, only behind the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks revamped their offensive line adding Connor Williams who was in Miami last season (and we all know what the Dolphins run game did to the Broncos). Kenneth Walker is a reliable volume back with slate winning upside at only $6,100 on DraftKings. While the Seahawks are poised to pass more under Ryan Grubbs’s offensive scheme, they should still put the rock in Walker’s chest enough times to stack up some yards and score once, or twice, especially if Geno struggles. One way or another, you want to be invested in the Seattle Seahawks this Sunday.

Devin Singletary

This is a GPP play. The Vikings are set up to be one of the worst defenses stopping the run this season. They made zero moves in the offseason to suggest that they will not be at the bottom of the pack this year. Devin Singletary is an unquestioned all-purpose bell cow for the New York Giants. Last season, Singletary was on an offense that thrived through the air in the Houston Texans, and he was not often asked to carry to workload. He got 20+ carries in 4 games last year and in those contests averaged 21.6 DK points. At a salary of $5,700, that would be enough from a low-owned, pass-catching running back. The main issue is seeing how a revamped, healthy Giants O’Line will perform. I think they can exceed their low expectations, especially in positive matchups like the one they see this Sunday.

Rachaad White

I am higher on the passing game as you will see when you complete this article. If you were to fade the pass game completely I think you HAVE to play White. 

Jonathan Taylor Note:  

JT has played against the Houston Texans 6 times. He averages 135 rush yards, 22.7 carries, and  6 YPC, per game. During that span, he has 7 rushing TDs (not that last year’s stats will be this stats. Oddly enough the Houston Texans were ranked 2nd in DVOA against the run in 2023 giving up the 13th last fantasy points on the ground. The matchup doesn’t say “Play Taylor”, but the history, if you are into that kind of thing, certainly does. 

Others to consider:

• Bijan Robinson
• Rachaad White (if fading the passing game I would certainly) 
• James Cook 
• Aaron Jones
• J.K. Dobbins (best “punt”, I’m just not so sure you need a “punt” on this slate).

Update: Adding Joe Mixon to the pool.

Wide Receiver 

Tyreek Hill

He is going to score at least one TD and drop over 100 yards because that’s what Tyreek Hill does. That should be enough on a Week 1 slate with plenty of value to fill in around him. You would be wise to get some Hill so you don’t feel like a complete bozo when he takes a 70-yarder to the house in the first quarter. There is no need to overthink this one. I know he will be highly owned, so just take the points and know you beat half the field already when he starts to go nuclear. You can’t control everyone else lineup, you can only control yours. And your job is to put up points. 

Not that it matters that much with Hill but the Dolphins should struggle more this season to run the ball judging by the changes they made to the offensive line. The Jaguars secondary is also the softest spot on their defense. It will not be easy to run on them this season but throwing over the top on Tyson Campbell and Ronald Darby is something that Tua and Reek should be able to accomplish with little resistance. 

Mike Evans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans draws the best primary matchup against Michael Davis, who allowed 1.52 YPRC in 2023, the most of the Commander’s worst-ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Commanders were also ranked dead last in DVOA covering the WR1 in 2023. Evans is the priority. 

Chris Godwin will slide in behind in also a favorable spot, and much lower ownership aside from full team stacks. He should still take a good chunk of the slot snaps (more on that below). He didn’t flash slate-winning upside last season, yet he is in one of the best spots you can be in as an NFL receiver. Dan Quinn is taking over the Washington defense, and they will be improved over the next couple of seasons, yet they don’t appear to have the bodies quite yet.  

Jalen McMillan is a true slot receiver who will get his first career start lining up primarily against rookie Mike Sainristil, the slot corner from Michigan who is no slouch. I would project Godwin to also get a fair split of the slot snaps, but we need to see how it all plays out on the field in Week 1. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are sure to draw Dan Quinn’s new defense eye over the somewhat forgotten Washington Huskies product. McMillon is a boom-or-bust option, who likely scores most of his production off a big play, not a huge volume. 

Andrei Iosiavas

All of the Bengals receivers get a bump with Tee Higgins out clearly. Ja’Marr Chase is still undetermined and will draw shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez, who is very talented. No, he can’t “stop” Chase, but can he limit the stud wide receiver who has hardly practiced at all and may not be in peak game shape? Yes, he can to some extent. He has proven so in the first 4 games of last season, before he got injured, winning Defensive Rookie of the Month. 

Iosaivas will line up in the slot primarily. If the preseason lack of playing time in the preseason is any indication, the Bengals are highly confident in him. He was also reported to have a phenomenal camp where he developed even more chemistry with Joe Burrow. Iosiavas was a sleeper last season but never saw/earned the opportunity. Those times appear to have changed with Tyler Boyd now on the Titans and Tee Higgins sitting this one out. 

I just want to clarify, this isn’t me saying fade Chase, this is me saying the Iosiavas is a steal at only $3,000. 

Jakobi Meyers or Davante Adams 

Someone is going to have a good day on the Raiders but I am having a hard time putting my finger on which guy, perhaps because I like them both. 

WR1 Davante Adams runs about 50% of his routes on the left, where Asante Samuel will be, and 33% of his routes on the right where Kristian Fulton will be. Fulton gave up the most production last season (1.49 YPRC) and the most air yards (13.2). Fulton had the 7th worst Yards Per Route run coverage out of all active corners that are returning to a starting position this season. The Chargers overall were ranked 27th against WR1 while being ranked 23rd against the WR2. They were sneaky good at covering the TE, at times, which is making me rethink my Brock Bowers love (only for one week). 

Jakobi Meyers is so intriguing here at only $5,000. He will just be flip-flopping sides with Adams, as well as taking around 25% of the slot snaps. He will get the same soft coverage while being only 1% owned. This is a guy who had double-digit targets in 5 games last season, with a ceiling of 29.1 DraftKings points. A lot has been made about how Gardner Minshew “made” Michael Pittman last season, but let’s not forget he also helped get WR2 Josh Downs off the ground. Meyers is much more developed than Downs and has plenty of underrated upside this Sunday. 

Terry McLaurin 

He will move all over the field drawing coverage from Jamal Dean (1,28 YPRC), Zyon McCollum (1.03 YPRC), and the rookie from Georgia Tykee Smith. Tampa Bay was ranked 25^th against the WR1 in 2023 while having the 14th-best passing defense via DVOA. Scary Terry’s DraftKings price tag of only $5,600 is downright mispriced for his upside in this matchup. 

Chris Olave

He is coming in a bit under the radar. He takes on a Carolina team that was bottom 10 in defense efficiency against the pass. He moves all over the field seeing Jaycee Horn, who gives up the most air yards per target (12), Troy Hill in the slot, who gives up the most YPRC (1,26), and rookie Mike Jackson. Olave commands a 26% target share, which is top 10 in the league. With the uncertainties about “vultures” in the rush game for the Saints, it is tough to press the button on Alvin Kamara or Taysom Hill, but the passing game is quite clear. Olave is that dude.  

Others to consider/mix in MME

• Adam Thielen
• Drake London
• Malik Nabers
• Khalil Shakir 
• Jerry Jeudy
• DK Metcalf

Tight End 

Best Spend up: Dalton Kincaid

Zach Ertz

This is a cheap GPP play that I have tried to talk myself out of, yet it makes too much sense to completely avoid. The forgotten vet tight end, Zach Ertz, is healthy and reuniting with Cliff Kingsbury, who helped prop him up to a fantasy tight end stud in seasons past. In Ertz’s last Week 1 with Kingsbury as his HC, he got 10 targets from Joshua Dobbs. Ertz isn’t in Washington by chance, Kingsbury wanted him there to be a reliable veteran presence in the locker room and for rookies Jayden Daniels and TE2 Ben Sinnott. 

The opposing Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave up the single most targets to the TE position in the 2023 regular season. They will be facing a rookie quarterback who may be forced to check it down more than while he was in LSU because his receiver room actually got a downgrade from what he is used to in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas. There is also a small chance of wind and rain around the Stadium on Sunday. That is just something we have to keep an eye on. At this point, it doesn’t appear to be much of a factor if any.  There are a lot of DFS players that are targeting this game, yet I have not heard Ertz’s name mentioned once. He is coming in at 1% owned while being $3,600 on DraftKings. 

Ja’Tavon Sanders

Due to injuries, the starting tight end for the Carolina Panthers, Ja’Tavon Sanders, is only $2,500 on DraftKings. Look, we all know the quarterback play isn’t going to be great, but it is still not going to be easy to run on the Saints so the Panthers are going to not have much of a choice but to throw it maybe more than they are comfortable with. The Saints allowed the third most passing touchdowns to tight ends last year on the 19^thmost targets to the position. What the Longhorns product has going for him is he is a big body with fantastic hands. His after-the-catch burst leaves something to be desired but is excels in getting separation and coming down with the ball. At only $2,500, if this guy scores you are going to be set up in a big way if you hop on the train early.  

Brock Bowers

 I am incredibly intrigued with Bowers as a prospect as well as how much they moved him around in the preseason scheming to get him open. If you are unfamiliar with his game just go watch the preseason and college highlights and you will immediately become a believer. The only issue is the lingering foot issue for a guy who struggled with injuries in college. His breakout is going to come, given he stays healthy, so if you are making multiple lineups, and don’t have any other Raiders, it might be wise to get ahead of the field on him before the price tag rises. If he stays healthy, he will be a top 4 TE by the end of the season. 

Others to consider: 

• Taysom Hill 

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. I can already tell you I will be adding another running back in the morning.