Fantasy

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for the Conference Championship weekend games.

If they are on this page. I like them.

The Playoff Articles are going to be more of a cheat sheet. I will refrain from listing everybody on the slate. Below are my Core plays.  

Quarterback Rankings 

• Josh Allen

Running Backs 

• Saquon Barkley
• Austin Ekeler
• James Cook

Wide Receiver 

• Xaiver Worthy
• Khalil Shakir
• A.J. Brown
• DeVonta Smith
• Marquis Brown 
• Amari Cooper

Tight End Rankings:

• Travis Kelce
• Dalton Kincaid
• Dawson Knox
• Zach Ertz

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for the Wild Card weekend games. With it being a short slate I went with a cheat sheet approach. By now, we all know the good teams and the bad teams (which there aren’t many left). The plays below are essentially ranking matchup + salary and upside.

If they are on this page. I like them.

The Playoff Articles are going to be more of a cheat sheet. I will put a MME CORE at the bottom of the article.

Quarterback Rankings (in order) 

• Jared Goff (salary considered)
• Josh Allen
• Jayden Daniels 
• Jalen Hurts
• Lamar Jackson

Running Backs 

Best Spend Ups (In order)

I will have at least one in every lineup and am not opposed to jamming them in together. 

• Saquon Barkley
• Derrick Henry 

Detroit Lions

Per usual, one, if not both of them will be scoring. The Commanders allowed the most regular season rushing TDs in the regular season, of all the teams left in the playoffs (16). The next closest is the Lions (12).

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• David Montgomery

Best GPP Value:

• Justice Hill: The Bills allowed the second most receptions to back in the regular season, although this was largely due to game script. King Henry can also catch the ball.
• Austin Ekeler

Wide Receiver 

• Zay Flowers has been downgraded to doubtful. 

Best Spend ups:

A.J. Brown

He has the best on-paper matchup for any “stud.” In what is a highly concentrated offense, I am not overly concerned with the snow. I like Brown, but I am not forcing him as there are plenty of value receivers. He is just the best of the top spend-ups, based on the corner matchups. 

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Nico Collins

Best Mid-Range (in order of preference)

• Rashod Bateman
• Terry McLaurin
• Khalil Shakir
• DeAndre Hopkins
• DeVonta Smith 

Best Values:

Olamide Zaccheaus

He gets most of the slot routes (58%) against the Lions, which is the best spot to attack them. Terry McLaurin gets 22% of the routes, and can still beat the Lions on the outside. There is no universe where you leave enough salary on the table where you could have got Scary Terry and play Zaccheaus. 

• Amari Cooper
• Tim Patrick 
• John Metchie
• Nelson Agholor 
• Mack Hollins

Tight End Rankings:

• Dallas Goedert: Best on paper TE matchup
• Dalton Schultz: Second best on paper TE matchup
• Isaiah Likely
• Mark Andrews

Core:

I can’t help but think from an MME perspective, so this is what I am doing. 

• Barkley or Henry or both
• Terry McLaurin or Olamide Zaccheaus
• Dallas Goedert
• Rashod Bateman: If you can not fit him I would use one of the Raven’s tight ends
• Round out your lineup with a DET Lion or two.
• Jared Goff: I wouldn’t call him a CORE piece, but he will be my most exposed QB in Lions stacks. 

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for the Wild Card weekend games. With it being a short slate I went with a cheat sheet approach. By now, we all know the good teams and the bad teams (which there aren’t many left). The plays below are essentially ranking matchup + salary and upside.

If they are on this page. I like them.

Quarterback Rankings (in order) 

• Josh Allen
• Justin Herbert 
• Jayden Daniels
• Baker Mayfield

Running Backs 

Best Spend Ups (In order)

• Saquon Barkley: Best Running back in 2024 + best on paper RB matchup of the week
• Derrick Henry: Best if you don’t play him with Lamar Jackson, who I am fading.
• Joe Mixon

Best Mid Range (In order)

• Bucky Irving 
• J.K. Dobbins
• Aaron Jones 

Best GPP Value:

• Austin Ekeler
• Rachaad White: Bucky Pivot

Wide Receiver 

Best Spend ups ( I would think you want one of the three)

• Justin Jefferson
• Nico Collins
• Puka Nacua

Ladd McConkey

The Texans are without a true slot corner. I cannot be certain, but if I am judging by who has played the most slot snaps on the Texans, Jeff Okudah should cover the majority of slot snaps. If that is the case, the Chargers slot receiver, Ladd McConkey, would have by far the best primary matchup of the slate. Okudah allows 5.68 YPRC. The next worst cover corner on the slate only allows 1.32 YPRC. If Okudah does not cover the slot (which isn’t a huge stretch) then he should see more Quentin Johnston, making him a very good GPP play. 

Khalil Shakir

He runs out of the slot, meaning he will avoid Pat Surtain. Surtain will be on the outside eliminating either Mack Hollins or Keon Coleman. Shakir has the second-best matchup on paper, volume, and salary considered, on the slate for me.

Terry McLaurin

Tampa has been a secondary we have attacked all season. They allow 37.3 fantasy points per game to the position, which is the 4^th worst left in the playoffs (MIN, DET, and BAL are the worst ton the season). I want to attack the outside of the field against the Buccaneers. I am hopeful that the Commander’s top targeted receiver gets the ball for Jaylen Daniels when he is covered by Josh Hayes, who is bottom three on the slate in YPRC.

Jalen McMillan

He has arrived and pulls the best matchup for any TB pass catcher.  

Others:

• DeVonta Smith
• Cooper Kupp: I don’t want him with Puka
• Rashod Bateman: Potentially more looks with Flowers out, which means PIT covers him as the WR1. It is not an easy spot, but the price is nice. 
• Courtland Sutton: WR1, at a WR2 price in potential trailing script. 
• Devaughn Vele: Matchup is great, volume is not. 
• Tylan Wallace: Speedster who could benefit from Zay Flowers being ruled out at min-price. Large risk.

Tight End Rankings

• TJ Hockenson: Best on-paper matchup, $4,200
• Mark Anders
• Zach Ertz
• Isaiah Likely

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

Updates:

adding Tyrell Shavers to values

Adding Noah Fant and JSN for Seattle

 Teams playing for something

• Falcons
• Commanders
• Buccaneers
• Broncos
• Dolphins
• Chargers
• Packers: Can move up to 6^th seed. However, the Cowboys would have to beat the Commanders. Both the Packers and Cowboys play at 1 pm, so in theory the Packers should give their guys run.

I am doing a different format today. Some of the spend-ups are obvious while a lot of the value fill-in guys make sense clearly based on a salary/opportunity perspective. 

Quarterback Rankings (in order) 

• Baker Mayfield 
• Jayden Daniels
• Bo Nix
• Geno Smith 

Value

• Joshua Dobbs
• Drew Lock

Under 1% owned

• Jordan Love (under 1% owned)
• Aaron Rodgers

Running Backs 

Best Spend ups

• Bijan Robinson: A core piece
• Bucky Irving

Best Spend up pivots

• Tony Pollard
• Josh Jacobs
• De’Von Achane

Best Mid-Range

• Isaac Guerendo
• J.K. Dobbins
• Brian Robinson
• Blake Corum
• Ray Davis: Big play upside but some concern about playing the full game

Value

• Michael Carter
• Will Shipley

Wide Receiver 

Best Spend Ups

• Mike Evans
• Terry McLaurin: I am giving him the best on-paper matchup of the slate. You want to attack the Cowboys on the outside. If he doesn’t have a big day, it will be Olamide Zaccheaus.
• Courland Sutton
• Malik Nabers
• Brian Thomas Jr. 
• Ladd McConkey

Spend Up Pivots

• Davante Adams
• Tyreek Hill

Best Mid-Range

• Adam Thielen
• Drake London
• Michael Pittman
• Jayden Reed
• Josh Downs
• Jalen McMillan

Best Value

• Devaughn Vele: Amazing slot matchup for the cheap, overlooked Bronco.
• Olamida Zacchaeus
• Greg Dortch: He has the best on-paper matchup for a value receiver on the slate, the volume is the limiting factor. I will have some
• Quentin Johnston
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Ricky Pearsall 
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Punts (MME)

• Johnny Wilson: Technically the best deep punt matchup on the board
• Rams: Jordan Whittington, Tyler Johnson, Tutu Atwell 
• Jacob Cowing 

Tight End Rankings

• Brock Bowers
• Jonnu Smith 
• Zach Ertz
• Payne Durham

Punts:

• Cade Stover
• Zach Davidson

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning Sunday Updates

 Quarterback Rankings (salary considered) 

• Joe Flacco
• Baker Mayfield 
• Josh Allen

Running Backs

Saquan Barkley

Jalen Hurts is confirmed out. This is huge for a couple of reasons. First, the Eagles must rely on the run with the league’s best back in 2024. Second, the tush push is non longer a Barkley vulture. He is now the red zone threat the opposing defenses will have to prove they can stop.  Last week, when Hurts got injured early, Saquan Barkley finished the day with 29 carries for 150 yards and two touchdowns. He takes on the rival Dallas Cowboys who are ranked 29^th against the rush in DVOA. They have given up 15 rushing TDs, and two receiving to RBs this season. They allow 25 fantasy points per game to the position, which is 6^th worst on the slate. 

If you want a big brain pivot in large-field MME, Kenny Gainwell is worth a shot. 

Tyjae Spears

Tony Pollard has been ruled out thrusting Spears into the starting role. He has racked up over 20 DK points per game in the past two contests alone, on limited carries, and now has finally got a starter role at only $5,400. This is chalk you are going to eat. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 23^rd in DVOA against the run while giving up the second most fantasy points to RBs this season (28.3 per game). Additionally, they have allowed the third most reception to backs, which is something Spears excels at. This is about as close to a lock button as it gets. 

Bucky Irving/Rachaad White

The Carolina Panthers are 32^nd in DVOA against the rush. They allow the most fantasy points to the position (31.3 per game) – which includes 16 rushing TDs and three receiving TDs. Bucky Irving is going to handle the actual “rushing” work, while White will be more involved in the passing game. White is intriguing in a trailing game script, but also because Cade Otton has already been ruled out. He should operate as a WR2/3 regardless of the game script. 

Others to consider: 

• Aaron Jones
• Kendre Miller
• Raheem Blackshear

Wide Receiver 

This section is smaller than usual, but I know exactly where I am going. 

Josh Downs/Michael Pittman/Alec Pierce

The Giants are ranked 27^th on the season in DVOA against the pass. 

Josh Downs will get the majority of slot routes against the Giants. He will see slot corner Andru Phillips who has been having a rough season. He allows 1.28 YPRC while Downs has 2.17 YPRR (the highest of any starting Colts WR). Downs has the highest target $ (28.4%) on the Colts. He has also been Joe Flacco’s preference when he got starts earlier in the season. At only $4,800 on DraftKings, sign me up. 

Michael Pittman draws the best on-paper matchup, out of any receiver on the slate (who gets starters snaps) in Week 17. You can also argue he is getting a QB upgrade, on what may be Joe Flaccos last hurrah. Pittman runs on the outside 75% of his routes. He will see a lot of Deonte Banks, who allows 1.52 YPRC. This is the worst YPRC for any corner facing a starting receiver on the main slate. Pittman will see Banks for about a significant amount of snaps, while also seeing Adoree’ Jackson, who primarily covers the left for around 35% of his snaps. Jackson has been far better, but the Giant’s defense is still just waiting for the season to end. Pittman at only $4,700 on DraftKings is a joke, and you will want a lot of him, or any other Colts receiver, like Josh Downs or Alec Pierce. As mentioned above, Downs will see most of the slot snaps, while Pierce will mirror Pittman on the opposite side of the field. Either Pittman or Downs will be on Banks essentially the entire game. 

Brian Thomas Jr.

The former LSU product is making a huge push at the end of the season with Mac Jones at QB. In the past two weeks, he has been targeted 27 times and dropped just over 66 DK points, in those two weeks combined. He now faces a lifeless Titans secondary ranked 20^th in DVOA against the pass. Perhaps there is also a little incentive for him to have more rookie receiving yards than Brock Bowers. Thomas currently has 1088, while Bowers has 1067. 

Mike Evans

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have to win this game to stay in contention for the NFC South, given the Falcons play the last game. I expect them to do just that against Carolina. The Panthers are ranked 31^st against the WR1. Mike Evans played this same team in Week 13 and put up 28.8 fantasy points with 118 yards and a TD. On the season, he has 818 total receiving yards. His 1,000-yard season streak is in jeopardy and he has to put up a very nice game to keep the streak in tac. He should hit 100+ yards here, and be peppered by Mayfield is what we can consider a must-win game for the Buccaneers at home. 

Calvin Ridley

The Jaguars, Ridley’s former team, are ranked 32^nd in the NFL, via DVOA, against the WR1. The only issue is that his quarterback is Mason Rudolph. 

Others to consider: There are a ton of midrange receivers to like this week. 

• Jayden Reed
• Jaokbi Meyers
• Jalen McMillan
• Parker Washington
• Cowboys: As of writing this both Tolbert and Brooks are questionable. There is sure to be some value, besides Cooks and Turpin, but we are going to have to wait until Sunday morning to see what we are dealing with. 
• Jalen Coker

Tight End Rankings

• Payne Durham: He is coming off a seven-target game with Cade Otton ruled out. He costs only $2,900. He is perfectly acceptable as a cheap TE option. 
• Jake Ferguson: Bad matchup, but a much larger opportunity with CeeDee Lamb ruled out
• Brock Bowers: It would be great to spend up for the stud this week, but that is just not how my builds are landing. He is your guy if you have a salary for a top-tier TE.
• Foster Moreau: This is more of a bet. His receiving prop of 18.5 yards made me laugh out loud. I don’t think he breaks the slate or anything, but if you want to take a shot in large field GPP’s, I wouldn’t be shocked if he exceeded value. It is much safer to just bet his over though.

Defense

Eagles

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning Sunday Updates

Quarterback Rankings

Michael Penix Jr. 

I am going to be way above the field with Penix Jr. I would expect more of a balanced offense as opposed to just running it 35 times here. If the Falcons wanted to run it down the Giant’s throats they could have easily just let Cousins get another start. What the Falcons want, is a rookie QB to develop confidence going into the final stretch, while they attempt to secure a playoff spot. The Giant’s defense is beat up. They are missing two linebacks and a starting corner. The matchup for his receivers, tight end, and pass-catching backs really couldn’t get much better. At only $4,500 he is basically a lock to exceed value and allows you to do whatever you want with the rest of your roster construction. Reminder last week Mac Jones, at a minimum salary won someone a million dollars, not Josh Allen or Jared Goff, who both went nuclear. 

Other GPP options:

• Baker Mayfield (FanDuel)
• Anthony Richardson
• Aaron Rodgers
• Brock Purdy
• Aiden O’Connell
• Dorian Thompson-Robinson: He will throw it a ton, but only 50% will be accurate

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs

There is a combination of good factors that should benefit Gibbs here. First, there is no David Montgomery so we no longer have to guess who is going to get the goal-line work. Second, Jared Goff has worse splits in outdoor cold weather games, so hopefully NFL’s highest-scoring team leans on the run more. Third, it is in fact a good matchup against the Bears (31st in DVOA against the run). They allow the fifth most fantasy points the RB on the season while being tied with the Carolina Panthers for most rushing TDs allowed (15). Gibbs will be on the majority of my GPP lineups and all of my cash game lineups. 

Patrick Taylor

If you are looking to save some salary, I do not have an issue with Patrick Taylor. He is down to $5,200 and will be the lead back in the 49ers backfield. I do not think this means he gets 20 rushing attempts, but I don’t think that he gets the most out of any 49er who will run the ball. The Dolphins are a beatable matchup (24^th in DVOA against the run). They have allowed 15 total touchdowns to the running back (12 rushing and 3 receiving), which is just as much as the CHI Bears have allowed. Taylor is a guy who can catch the ball out of the outfield so his scoring on a passing play is just as likely as a rushing play. 

Jerome Ford

With Nick Chubb out with a broken foot, Ford is in line to take over the backfield for the Cleveland Browns. He takes on a truly terrible Bengals defense, however, it is almost certain that the Bengals dog-walk the Browns in this one. The only real reason you are interested in Ford is that he can be an asset in the passing game as well. That unfortunately means that we are going to need Dorian Thompson-Robinson to look like a decent NFL quarterback, which could or could not happen. As bad as the Bengals are, I don’t think Ford is closer to bad chalk than good chalk. That being said, it doesn’t mean I am avoiding him in my lineups, it just means I am not starting with him. His salary of $4,800 is very nice, but this is a slate where we are not dying to save salary. 

Tyjae Spears (conditional)

If Tony Pollard is out Spears shoot up the rankings as the best-value RB on the slate. 

Devin Singletary

If Tyrone Tracy is ruled out Singletary will be the lead back for the New York Giants, who should do their best to lean on the run against a poor Atlanta Defense, while they also try to mask their inadequate quarterback. He is $4,500 and would also be an outstanding value. 

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons, who have one of the better 1-2 RB combos in the NFL, could lean on the run more here with rookie Michael Penix Jr. getting the start at QB against the New York Giants. The Giants are bad both defending the run and the pass, plus they are dealing with significant injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Bijan Robinson has been automatic recently and is a great bet for cash games. Tyler Allgeier is a guy that pops every now and then and don’t hate taking a shot on him in the Milly Maker. Allgeier makes more sense if fading both Robinson and Penix Jr. 

De’Von Achane

Remember the days when the DFS industry said the Achane was the second-best pass catcher on the Dolphins? What happened to that? It seems like he is being overlooked against a 49ers team that is particularly good at stopping the run. In terms of fantasy points allowed, they are worse than the Raiders, Bengals, Rams, and Titans. With Jaylen Waddle out, and maybe even Tyreek Hill, perhaps we get a little more out of Achane in the pass It isn’t like Achane really needs more receiving opportunities as he has averaged 8 targets in the last three games while also being the Dolphins RB1. He was everyone’s favorite RB at the beginning of the season and since he hasn’t dropped 20 in a couple weeks people are looking the other direction. He is worth a few shots on your DFS lineups. 

Others to consider: 

I can’t make a case against any of these guys and will be mixing them in MME. 

• Saquan Barkley: Outstanding, but you don’t need a write-up to play Barkley if you can fit him
• Chase Brown
• James Cook
• Jonathan Taylor
• Aaron Jones

Best Values (High-risk high-reward options)

• Craig Reynolds 
• Ray Davis: If it isn’t Josh Allen or James Cook, it is Ray Davis. He could also get significant blowout run in this one.

Wide Receiver (not in order of preference)

On FanDuel I would make it a point to get to Mike Evans. Jalen McMillian also grades out as having the best primary CB matchup of the week, for any team. 

Cooper Kupp

For the second time in his career, Cooper Kupp well held to zero catches in a game last week. Throw that out because that is the outlier, not the new normal. In three of his last four games, he has eclipsed 20 DK points, and that would be plenty here at a salary of only $6,500. Kupp runs primarily out of the slot, meaning he will avoid Sauce Gardner more than Puka Nacua (not that Gardner has been fantastic this season). Kupp still has a massive target share (29.1%), which is still the second-best on the slate, only behind his teammate Nacua. The Jets rank 27th against the WR1 and 18th against the WR2. With the target share of each of these receivers, I do think the terms WR1 and WR2 here are interchangeable. 

To be clear, if I have the salary I prefer Nacua, but Kupp is too cheap and you can even double-stack him with Stafford and Nacua. 

Seattle Seahawks

I really want a piece of the passing game here. The receivers across the board are underpriced and the matchup is beatable in the last home game of the season for Seattle. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been thriving and draws the slot matchup against Byron Murphy Jr. The season is almost over and we have seen JSN take over the alpha role so we might as well accept it now. That being said, I am also taking some shots on D.K. Metcalf at $5,500. He has the next best matchup facing off against Shaq Griffin and Stephon Gilmore on the outside. These once elite corners are no longer and can be beaten. This is proven by the Vikings giving up the most fantasy points to wide receivers, per game, on the season (42.8). 

Deebo Samuel

MIA is 26^th against the WR1 and 21^st against the WR2. 

I don’t care how bad he has been, Deebo is down to $5,200 on DraftKings. The 49ers are not playing for anything, but Samuel is playing to redeem himself and dropping what would have been a walk-in touchdown last week. Samuel moves all over the field, at a pretty even rate, so there are no primary matchups to break down. Miami has been better in the past of late but is still 21^st in DVOA against the position. Samuel will also get some designed runs out of the backfield, perhaps more than normal with the 49ers being down to their depth chart RB5 from the beginning of the season. 

Jakobi Meyers

He should be a target monster again with Aidan O’Connell back starting at QB. He and Brock Bowers will get fed through the air, but of course, we need a touchdown out of whoever we start. The Jaguars are traveling from Jacksonville to spend the weekend in Las Vegas while playing for nothing. You do have to wonder how motivated they will be to put their best foot forward. On top of that, they have been terrible against the pass all season long. They are tied for the second most fantasy points allowed per game to the WR position (40.3). We also have O’Connel who is playing for a starting job next season. If we can string together a few impressive outings he may win the job to open next season (given they don’t draft a QB). 

The New York Jets 

This is the third week in a row I have written up the New York Jets. This is a high game total, against a poor Rams secondary. Last week it was Davante Adams, but this week the best CB matchup goes to Garrett Wilson, who happens to be cheaper. Adams runs slightly more slot routes, while Wilson runs slightly more on the right side of the field. That matches him up with Darius Williams who is the Ram’s worst cover corner based on YPRC (1.20).

Atlanta Falcons

I am not making it a point to get a Falcons receiver, but if you do want to stack up the dirty birds, the matchup on paper makes a ton of sense. The Giants are ranked 30^th against the WR1, 18^th against the WR2, and 31st against the WR3. There is no primary matchup for any Falcons receiver as they all move all over the field while splitting slot snaps. The Giant’s secondary looks terrible. They have two of the bottom five corners on the slate, that allow the most YPRR. Starter Greg Stroman, who will play mostly in the slot, was ruled out. The Giants will also be missing two linebackers.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

The way to attack the Bears is to play the receivers that avoid Jaylon Johnson. This week is St. Brown (53% slot routes) and Tim Patrick. I don’t love playing Goff’s weapons with his poor home/road/outdoor/cold weather splits-but those would be the guys to use if you want a piece of the Lions receivers. 

Tyreek Hill

He is currently questionable. If he is in, I love him. The Q tag will keep ownership low, in a game where Jaylen Waddle is already ruled out, at a deflated salary of $6,900. If he is ruled out then you run to get as much Malik Washington as you can. Jonnu Smith and DeVon Achane would also get significantly better. 

Others to consider: There are a ton of midrange receivers to like this week. 

• Ja’Marr Chase: He has the best WR1 matchup on the slate (CLE 31^st against the WR1-you just worry about blowout)
• Malik Nabers
• Devonta Smith 
• Josh Downs
• Keenan Allen: Honestly all the Bears receivers are underpriced, but Allen popped off against the same team on Thanksgiving, and DET has been hit hard with the injury bug. 
• Brian Thomas Jr
• Tim Patrick 
• Malik Washington 
• Jalen Coker

Tight End 

Best Spend up: Trey McBride

Best Value: Brenton Strange

The Cleveland Browns

If you know me you know that I will be targetting the Bengals at the tight end position. This week we have a unique opportunity to perhaps get David Njoku as a low-owned spend up (due to his Q tag), or spend down and get his Jordan Akins (who would start if he is out), at only $3,200. The Bengals are the worst team against the TE in the league, and much of that production has been coming lately to average players. They give up 17.1 DK points per game to the position while giving up the second most receptions only behind the Denver Broncos. 

Others to consider:

• Jonnu Smith
• George Kittle
• Brock Bowers

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning Sunday Updates

Quarterback Rankings

• Josh Allen: Hard to not rank him at the top after last week’s performance in a game with the highest O/U of the week – see receivers for matchups
• Joe Burrow: Anything less than 3 TDs is a letdown. – see receivers for matchups
• Jared Goff: The Bills might make him throw it, and he has an arsenal at his disposal
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Will Levis: I make a case for every Titans skill player below, so I have to recommend him as a cheap option. Of course, you need the spends ups all to bust relative to their price. 

Running Backs

Chubba Hubbard

Dallas allows 25.8 DraftKings points per game to the RB. They have allowed 16 combined TDs to the position. They are ranked 26^th in DVOA in total defense and 29^th in DVOA against the run. Bryce Young has been playing better and has at least shown the ability to move an offense down the field (converting in the endzone is another story). Hubbard is coming off a 26-attempt game while also getting five targets. I doubt he will pull that kind of volume off again, but it sure is promising. He is priced too low on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is a lock-in cash game while also warranting plenty of GPP exposure. 

Brian Robinson Jr. 

Austin Ekeler is on IR. Noah Brown is out. That leaves Brian Robinson Jr and Terry McLaurin as the only Commanders you can put faith in to have a significant role in the Washington offenses. The Saints are ranked 31^st in DVOA against the run while giving up 15 total touchdowns to RBs (rushing and receiving) this season. The DraftKings price tag of $6,200 is just too cheap for BRob.  

Tyjae Spears (conditional)

If Tony Pollard is ruled out before kickoff, Tyjae Spears becomes the uber chalk at only $4,300. Fantasy bros that have been touting this guy for three years will finally get their victory lap. He is too cheap to fade against a bad Bengals defense. You just lock him in. 

Rachaad White (conditional)

If Bucky Irving is ruled out, White will shoot to the top of my list, even in a tough matchup against the Chargers. He would be dramatically underpriced on both sites while being used as the primary runningback and a WR2/3.

*Zach Charbonnet 

He is only on the FanDuel slate. I will be locking him in everything. 

Best Mid-Range (not listed above):

• Rico Dowdle: On the season, CAR has been the worst team in football against the run. 
• James Conner
• Rhamondre Stevenson

Others to consider: 

• Saquon Barkley
• Derrick Henry: 
• Joe Mixon
• De’Von Achane
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Chase Brown 
• David Montgomery 

A lot to like this week. I will be trying to narrow it down before and during the live stream tomorrow AM. As it stands now, I can make a case for each of them. I will let my receiver and QB build dictate which of these RBs I land on as of now. 

Wide Receiver 

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Out of the Lion’s receivers, the Sun God is my preference. He is the Lion’s primary slot receiver and faces Bill’s worst corner in YPRC, Taron Johnson, who plays primarily out of the slot. St. Brown leads DET with a 24% target percentage, averaging 18.1 DK points per game. He is on a three-game streak of no touchdowns but should be able to snap that in Week 15 in a game with a massive 54.5 total. The Bills are also ranked poorly against opposing WR1’s (27^th).

Jameson Williams and Tim Patrick are both in play in game stacks. Williams leads the team in air yards and YPRR. The Bills are also worse against the WR2 (29^th) than the WR1. I don’t expect another Tim Patrick monster game; I’m just looking for a couple of reasons. He will see a lot of Christian Benford, who has been solid. He also is by far the least targeted Lions receiver out of the starters. Dan Campbell also has a way of getting everyone involved, which usually means rotating monster games from one week to another. St. Brown and Williams are heavily preferred here.  

The Tennessee Titans

I am going right back to the Titans pass catchers right after they busted last week against the 30^th DVOA pass defense in the league. Before Week 14, it felt like one of these two guys was hitting the nuts weekly. All three of the key wide receivers find themselves as viable DFS plays this Sunday. Nick Westbrook-Ikhines’s touchdown streak was broken last week (but he almost got one at the very end of the game). He lines up on the left side of the field  47% of the time, which is covered by Josh Newton 67% of the time. He has limited opposing receivers to the least number of yards, but he is certainly still beatable. 

For upside, Calvin Ridley should put up the highest score. He will see Cam Taylor Britt more than anyone else who has been the Bengal’s worst cover corner. He allows 1.42 YPRC and the most air yards (12.6). He has the second-highest projected target share behind slot corner Mike Hilton. 

Tyler Boyd will see Hilton the most, so that is a positive for Boyd. The Bengals are also the worst team on the slate against the WR3 (29^th overall). Also, revenge who like to dabble in that narrative. 

Terry McLaurin

Is this guy coming in at 3% or less? The Saint’s season numbers against the WR1 are somehow elite, but that doesn’t take into account how they have been playing lately with the corners they have at their disposal, post-trade deadline. McLaurin will go against a significant amount of man coverage against the outside corners of the Saints. New Orleans is in the bottom five in yards per reception and yards per route covered in man. Overall, the Saints allow the highest number of YPRC of any team in the NFL, and McLaurin is going to get a ton of targets in this one, with Noah Brown being ruled out. 

Zay Flowers

The New York Giants are ranked 31^st against the WR1. The only team ranked worse is the Baltimore Ravens. Sure, the game script doesn’t lead to many passes in the second half, but Flowers should be able to do plenty at a $6,000 DraftKings price tag. The last true blowout the Ravens were in was when they beat the Broncos 41-10, and Flowers put up 127 yards and 2 TDs for 32.7 DK points. 

Nico Collins

The Dolphins are ranked 25^th against opposing WR1’s. Nico Collins is the second highest-targeted (28.9%) receiver on the slate. He is a priority to get to like he has been all season. 

Khalil Shakir

He will get the majority of the slot routes against the Lions, who allow the 4^th most fantasy points to wide receivers in the league. The slot is their weakest position, allowing 1.31 YPRC while also being the highest targeted by opposing offenses. Shakir leads the bills in YPRR and target share (25.4%). 

The New York Jets 

The Jaguars are the worst team via DVOA against the pass. The best way (not the only way) is to throw it down the right side of the field. Allen Lazard runs the most right-side routes on the season, so taking a stab at him is viable in large-field GPPs. He did get up to 78% of snaps last week, and we have witnessed Aaron Rodgers being more than willing to throw it to him even when Adams and Wilson are on the field. Aside from that deep shot, rolling out Adams or Wilson is warranted as well. As far as choosing one, that is a difficult task. My metrics lean ever so slightly towards Adams, so if I am forced to choose one (I am not), I suppose it would be him. 

Dyami Brown

He should see the largest benefit (aside from Terry McLaurin) from Noah Brown being ruled out. Brown was seeing the second most receiver snaps for the Commanders (up to 89% in Week 10). With those snaps now vacated, Dyami Brown, along with Olamide Zaccheaus and Luke McCaffrey, will see the field more. As far as raw playing time goes, I have Brown getting the largest bump. The Saints have been oddly good against the WR1 lately. However, they have been letting everyone else slip through the cracks. Brown is only $3,100 on DraftKings, and I am fairly confident he can beat that salary 9 out of 10 times he gets this role.  

Tee Higgins

He and Ja’Marr Chase are both going to run on the outside the majority of the time, while Andrei Iosivas gets 50% of the slot snaps. The Titans will still be without L’Jarius Sneed (their best corner), and the Bengals should be able to take full advantage in a game they absolutely must win (including all the games the rest of the season) to have a shot at the postseason. In all reality, too many things have to happen for the Bengals to get into the playoffs, but they are still going to be playing like they have a shot. Burrow can easily throw for 3-TDs here, and Higgins and Chase will be the prime beneficiaries. Higgins wins in this portion of the article for me simply because he is cheaper and has the same rotating matchup as Chase. 

Amari Cooper or Keon Coleman

Cooper is a better receiver at this stage in the game, but the matchups are essentially identical. Coleman is significantly cheaper, so if you can’t fit Cooper, you should feel comfortable with Coleman. 

Devaughn Vele

The Colts run a ton of zone coverage, and Vele is the receiver that typically benefits at the highest rate for the Denver Broncos. He leads the Broncos in target % and YPRR in zone. If you can not afford Courtland Sutton, who I also like a great deal at his mid-range salary, Vele is a nice leverage option. 

Others to consider

• Tyreek Hill: I’m not doing a big write-up here, but he is the preference on the Dolphins. Will draw the most favorable overall matchup for them when factoring in routes run, CB matchups, and projected target %
• Ladd McConkey
• Malik Nabers: Baltimore is terrible covering the WR, but the Giants offense is also terrible. 
• Jaylen Waddle: Comes in second in volume for Tua’s receivers but third in overall CB matchups. 
• Marvin Harrison Jr. 
• Malik Washington: I love the matchup and increased snaps via OBJ’s departure, I just don’t trust the volume
• Michael Wilson

Tight End 

Best Value: Brenton Strange

Best Spend Up: Trey McBride 

Value Pivots:

Stone Smart

He is a cheap, tight-end option who will be getting a playing time boost with Will Dissly ruled out. Tampa has been bad against tight ends overall this season (27^th via DVOA) but has been better as of late. If Ladd McConkey were to be ruled out, Smart would be in the running for the best TE value on the slate. 

Chig Okonkwo

I have loved targeting the Bengals with tight ends this season. They allow the 4^th most fantasy points to the position while giving up the second most receiving touchdowns (8). We have not had a ceiling game out of Okonkwo all season. His best game came against Houston in Week 12 when he caught his only target for one touchdown. In the past two games, he has been targeted ten combined times. I can work with that at only $2,900 on DraftKings and no ownership in large-field GPPs. 

Others to consider:

• Jonnu Smith
• Sam LaPorta: Likely just use him in game stacks
• Jake Ferguson: The matchup is there we just need to QB play to be there, too
• Mark Andrews
• Juwan Johnson 
• Tyler Conklin: Best DVOA TE spot in the NFL, but low volume option.

Favorited Game Stacks

• BUF DET
• MIA HOU
• CIN TEN

Favorite Team Stacks (not mentioned above)

• MIA
• WAS

Final slate thought. Going through my research, I made a case for every single skill position for the Titans, from QB, RB, WR, and TE. That scares me, but those numbers are what they are. Let go, Titans! (I guess)

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning Sunday Updates

• Adding Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy to the pool. Moore should have an easier path based on primary coverage, but that doesnt mean Winston won’t hurl in to Jeudy at an alarming rate.
• George Pickens is out. Calvin Austin and Van Jefferson are great value options.

Quarterback Rankings

• Aidan O’Connell
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Jalen Hurts
• Aaron Rodgers

Running Backs

Zach Charbonnet 

He is your chalk du jour in Week 14 that you can not avoid. With Kenneth Walker being ruled a surprise out after the slate salaries locked, Charbonnett snuck in with a $4,800 salary. Arizona has been middle of the pack when defending the run this season and is certainly no one to avoid with an underpriced workhorse like Charbonnett, who will also get work in the passing game. When Walker was out earlier this season, ZC averaged 21.8 DK points per game over two games. Lock him in and move on. 

Isaac Guerendo

Whenever Guerendo ($5,400) has gotten a decent workload, he has looked good. In Week 6, he rattled off 99 yards on ten carries (which included a 76-yard run), and in Week 8, he stacked up 88 all-purpose yards and a TD on 14 carries and three receptions. The matchup is good against the Bears. As of Week 13, the Bears are ranked 30^th in DVOA against the run. 

Here is a juicy stat that MagicSportsGuy found digging and shot over to me. When filtering rushing stats among RBs with 40+ carries (Guerendo has 42), he is 2^nd (behind Barkley) in yards before contact. Also, 9.5% of his runs go for 10+ yards. This is elite. For example, Jahmyr Gibbs is 1^st with 11.2%). The Bears are dead last in yards before contact is allowed. 

The one thing that worries me is the 49ers will still be without Trent Williams. That doesn’t help the run game, but at Guerendo’s salary and matchup, I will not overthink it.  He is a great salary saver on a slate where spending down at RB is going to be the popular way to build, for good reason. 

Braelon Allen

With Breece Hall ruled out, we get another super salary saver in Braelon Allon ($5,000). This guy had a stint of basically splitting carries with Hall until the Head Coaching change for New York. Allen is an extremely talented back and should get plenty of opportunities with how poorly the passing game has been for the Jets. He will also get a handful of receiving opportunities from Aaron Rodgers. Miami is 25^th in DVOA against the run while allowing 11 rushing and three receiving TDs over 12 games to the running back. 

Saquon Barkley 

He plays the Panthers. If he averages 167 rush yards per game over the next three games, he will break Dickerson’s record in 16 games. After the game against Carolina, he will know if that is a real possibility with the Steelers and Commanders on deck. Expect a huge dose of Barkley, but it is hard to pay up there with all the RB value we have. Then you must also worry about Jalen Hurts vulturing inside the 5-yard line with the tush push. I pulled the most rush attempts inside the five converted for a touchdown, and wouldn’t you know it, the Panthers are the worst on the slate. If that plays out again, that benefits Hurts, but if Barkley continues to break huge runs, that will not matter. Barkley would need to be the highest scorer on the slate for the play to make sense, but he certainly has a chance. 

Others to consider: I have nothing bad to say about any of these guys. 

• Alvin Kamara
• Bucky Irving 
• De’Von Achane

I don’t see myself getting away from these 7 RBs, even in my MME lineups. It is a three-RB week on both FanDuel and DraftKings. 

Wide Receiver 

Mike Evans

Mike Evans needs to average 96 yards per game for the rest of the season to continue his 1,000-yard season streak. He takes on the Las Vegas Raiders, 25^th in DVOA against receivers while being ranked 15^th against the WR1. With no other Tampa Bay Buc stepping up in the passing game aside from Cade Otton and Tampa all of a sudden in a position to steal the NFC South, Evans should get fed again. Despite Evans missing a month of playing time, the Buccaneers are still tied for the 4^th highest rate of touchdown conversions in the red zone. Evans, or Otton, will be the first look for Baker Mayfield when inside the 20-yard line. 

Jakobi Meyers

He is a target monster taking on a secondary we have been picking on all season at only $5,600. Easy play. 

Drake London

The Minnesota Vikings allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers (42 per game). This week, Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota to try and snap the Falcons out of a losing steak. That may or may not happen, but one thing is for sure: Cousins will sling it. Drake London was a fantasy darling the first half of the season, but now he is all of a sudden forgotten after poor QB play and a bye week. He maxed out his salary at $7,200 on DraftKings but has fallen back down to only $6,400. London is the highest-targeted wide receiver in the NFL inside the 20-yard line at 46.2%. That is insane. To be fair to the Vikings, they have the third-lowest red zone conversion rate at home in the NFL. Honestly, I just like the price and the potential game script for London. 

Miami Dolphins

Sauce Gardner is doubtful. C.J. Mosley is done for the year. The Dolphins should be able to throw it, as well as run it here. With evaluating all the Dolphins (Achane, Hill, Waddle, Smith) salaries, you probably want at least one piece, if not a full-on stack. There are no primary matchups to target or avoid, as everything seems pretty wide open for Tua and the boys. Jonnu Smith is the easiest, most reliable play. Tyreek Hill is the mega upside play, and Waddle appears underpriced at $5,400. I will run at least one Tua stack and see where I land on the leaderboard. 

Malik Nabers

He has the third-highest target rate in the NFL, behind Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and that has been sustained going through three different quarterbacks. He is in a great spot against the New Orleans secondary, he plays. If not, then there is going to be some Giants WR value opening up with guys like Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton. Both of which I almost wrote up at the beginning of the week, with Nabers projected in just due to how poorly the Saints can be at defending the pass. 

George Pickens

Cleveland is ranked 27^th in DVOA against the pass. They are ranked 30^th against the WR1, allowing 85.2 yards per game (3^rd worst in the NFL). I have some concerns about it getting chippy with Greg Newsom, which could result in PI instead of a completion, but we are not dealing with a shadow situation here.  Pickens also popped up on the injury report Friday with a hamstring injury, but that is more than likely just a rest day. 

• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: DraftKings
• Calvin Ridley: FanDuel

There is a $1,000 gap on the receivers on DraftKings and a $100 gap on FanDuel. If you want to play NWI, DraftKings is the spot. 

We have to take a step back, like we did last week, and realize that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a legit offensive threat now. Don’t judge him on previous seasons, judge him on what you are seeing this season. He just keeps producing as the Titans WR2 with DeAndre Hopkins out of town. Now NWI takes on the Jaguars, who are ranked dead last against the WR2, while at the same time, he has been the most reliable WR2 in the game the past eight weeks. That is no longer a small sample size. His salary is up (but not high enough), but so is his production. If this guy’s name was different, he would be priced as a top-10 WR based on production alone.  

Calvin Ridley is criminally underpriced at $5,700 on DraftKings. He and NWI both play on the outside the most, so technically, they both have a very similar matchup. I am good with sticking either Titans WR in your last WR slot, depending on whatever salary slot you are trying to fill.

Keenan Allen

Good if D.J. Moore is in. It would be great if D.J. Moore is out. $5,600 on DraftKings is just too low, especially with the injuries the 49ers are dealing with. 

Jets

Seeing both Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson as cheap as they are is just odd. The same goes for Aaron Rodgers. Perhaps there is some merit to stacking them in the Milly Maker against Miami. With whispers of Aaron Rodgers getting benched and the Jets in the most literal must-win situation that exists in the NFL, perhaps we see one last gasp from the once-elite quarterback and his still-elite duo of Adams and Wilson. Breece Hall being ruled out doesn’t hurt either.  

Jauan Jennings

The Bears let Jaylon Johnson handle the best receiver on the team when said receiver isn’t a primary slot receiver. Jauan Jennings runs the most out of the slot (45%) and is technically the WR2 behind Deebo Samuel (37% slot routes). Samuel should see Johnson coverage slightly more (not exclusively), and Jennings has a higher target rate and YPRR anyway. Chicago is ranked 31^st against the WR2, largely due to what I will call the “Johnson Effect. George Kittle should also benefit, maybe the most. 

Others to consider:

• Justin Jefferson
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Tight End 

Brock Bowers

The best tight end in the league, who has the highest average targets per game (9.4), takes on the 31^st-ranked defense against the position. Tampa allows the third most fantasy points to tight ends on the slate. 

Jonnu Smith

He just keeps getting it done. That’s enough. 

Others to consider:

• George Kittle
• T.J. Hockenson
• Juwan Johnson

Others to consider:

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays

Sunday Updates

Adding Chase Brown to RBs

Adding Even Engram to tight ends

Quarterback Rankings

• Matthew Stafford: favorite mid-tier GPP QB; see Ram’s receiver paragraph
• C.J. Stroud: 5% owned and love Collins and Dell
• Jalen Hurts: The Ravens’ pass D is terrible and might have Smith back. I am seeing 3% owned right now. That can’t be right, can it?
• Justin Herbert: He could easily lead the league in passing attempts
• Baker Mayfield: 3% owned vs the Carolina Panthers

Running Backs

Los Angeles Chargers 

Is Gus Edwards explosive? Nope. Is he $4,300 on DraftKings? Yep. He will be the main beneficiary (aside from the Chargers pass catchers) with J.K. Dobbins being ruled out against the Atlanta Falcons. The Dirty Birds aren’t great at stopping the run, and all Edwards has to do is not much at all. I am not sure he even has to score at that price tag. His low salary allows you to fit a starting RB and jam in a ton of studs. We saw someone take down the Milly maker just two weeks ago with Audric Estime at a similar salary when he technically had a “dud” game. If Edwards scores, you will have to have him. The Falcons allow 22 fantasy points per game to the position while allowing only three rushing TDs and three receiving TDs to running backs. 

Rookie Kimani Vidal also has my attention. I expect him to be the pass-catching back, not Hassan Haskins. The Chargers coaching staff have been teasing a larger role for the Marietta, GA native against the Atlanta Falcons in the press this week. If the Falcons can get a lead early, we could see more Vidal in the second half in somewhat of a two-minute drill roll. Vidal was the main beneficiary when Gus Edwards was out earlier in the season. He would get a handful of touches a game and also caught a 30-yard TD pass from Herbert. He costs $4,000 on DraftKings and should be used in Milly Maker formats only. 

Jonathan Taylor

In Week 12, the New England Patriots were the worst team defending the run (32^nd) via DVOA. On the season, they are ranked 30^th in DVOA against the run. They are allowing 24 fantasy points per game and 15 total touchdowns (rushing and passing) to the position in just 12 games. With arguably the Colts WR1 (Josh Downs) out, perhaps there will be more focus on running the ball, although I can not say that has been the case in the past. Look for Taylor to bounce back from just 11 carries in a terrible game script last week and get closer to 20 this week. 

Bucky Irving or Rachaad White note

Everyone knows the Panthers are the team to target with running backs (and every skill position), so I don’t think I have to clarify at this point in the season. I certainly get the appeal of rostering one of the two main Bucs RBs. Bucky Irving had the better fantasy day last week, largely due to him catching 6 of 6 passes from Baker Mayfield and also scoring. Both he and White got 12 rushing touches. Irving is the more explosive back, yet White has scored 6 times in the past 5 weeks. The issue you run into when rostering the Bucs RBs is that they are all involved, all can score, yet none of them get the volume to rely on with consistency. Irving is best suited for cash games, while White could be worth a stab in GPPs. 

Alvin Kamara

If you are fading Taysom Hill, you should certainly highly consider Alvin Kamara in what could be a shootout game. Kamara is game script proof (unless Taysom Hill drops 40 again). He will run the ball more than Hill; he almost always out targets him. The only issue is he takes up a premium RB spot. That said, I don’t love many RBs this week. 

Derrick Henry

No one is playing King Henry this week. The Eagles have been pretty shut down against receivers lately so I do not have that much interest in Lamar Jackson or his pass catchers. These are the games Henry was brought to the Ravens for. While the Eagles have been good against the run, they are not better than Henry with a full head of steam. He needs to find open space, or the goal line one time to get in the endzone and stack up 100+ yards. 

Others to consider:

• Joe Mixon: If I didn’t have a piece of the Houston pass attack, I would prioritize getting Joe Mixon. The Jaguars allow the second most fantasy points to RBs on the season while allowing 15 total TDs (rushing and receiving). 

Wide Receiver 

Cooper Kupp and the Los Angeles Rams

Last week, I targeted the Bears with Sam Darnold and the Vikings’ pass attack. Besides his highest-priced option, Justin Jefferson, Darnold exceeded value and supported all of his pass catchers (tight end included). I made the point that the Bears corners gave the first and second most YPRC on the slate, and their primary matchups were Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor, both of which scored touchdowns. This week, the two worst corners on the slate that give up the first and second most YPRC are on the Saints. Their primary matchups are Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson. To be transparent about how the Rams run their offense, Kupp, Robinson, and Nacua move all over the field, so pivoting to Nacua, from Robison, isn’t “bad.” Both Kupp and Nacua have the first and second-highest target percentage on the slate. The highest targeted corner on the entire slate is Ugo Amadi, who covers the slot almost exclusively. Cooper Kupp runs 67% of his routes out of the slot. This is an amazing matchup for Kupp, and you can be damn sure that Matt Stafford knows it. I will be making plenty of Rams stacks this week with a low-owned Matthew Stafford. 

Tank Dell and Nico Collins

Nico Collins has the highest target percentage receiver on the slate besides the Rams duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. He takes on a Jaguars team that is dead last in DVOA against receivers. They are ranked 13^th against the WR1 (Nico Collins) and dead last against the WR2 (Tank Dell). Dell is a Daytona Beach native. I happen to remember that last time he played there, he called it a “friends and family game.” He went on to put up 145 yards and a TD, although a chunk of it came on a broken coverage play. 

Ladd McConkey

Justin Herbert is playing the best football of his career, and the Chargers run game is questionable, with J.K. Dobbins hitting IR. McConkey is by far the best pass catcher Herbert has. He leads the team in target % (21.4%) and yards per route run. He runs 73% of his routes out of the slot, which will directly avoid A.J. Terrell. His salary of $6,100 is fair for a guy who could easily see ten targets. 

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

He has 6 TDs in the past 7 weeks and is still only $4,300 on DraftKings. He will see plenty of Benjamin St-Juste, who is allowing a bottom 10 YPRC on the slate. Washington’s defense is improved, but they still ranked 30^th against the WR1 (Calvin Ridley) and 21^st against the WR2 (NWI). 

Best Pivot: Calvin Ridley 

Mike Evans

I played him last week with nearly no ownership, and if the Buccaneers hadn’t blown out the Giants so badly, I feel very confident he would have had a big week. The Tampa run game should once again be able to enforce their will against the Panthers, but $6,700 for such an elite talent like Mike Evans is too hard to ignore. I will have plenty in GPPs and have zero issues playing him in a main lineup if you fade the other Tampa skill players. 

AJ Brown Note

If Smith is out, he and Dallas Goedert will be difficult to ignore. Brown has the highest YPRR on the slate, taking on a terrible Ravens secondary.

Other Good Options:

• Calvin Ridley
• Terry McLaurin
• Drake London
• George Pickens
• Michael Pittman
• Marvin Harrison Jr. 
• Zay Flowers
• Brian Thomas Jr. 
• Alec Pierce

Favorite Values

• Adonai Mitchell
• Marquez Valdez-Scantling
• David Moore: Hard to ignore coming off ten targets at $3,500 for a team that will likely be trailing and doesn’t have a tight end

Tight End 

Taysom Hill

His price shot way up, but you are still playing Superflex but rostering a QB/RB/WR/TE at the most unreliable position on the slate. Saint’s OC, Klint Kubiak, was quoted as saying, “We are ready for Taysom Hill to play every play of the game” when asked about his plans with Hill going forward. This is just coach speak, but also somewhat encouraging with all the injuries the Saints have had to persevere through. Last week, Hill played a season-high 55% of snaps while running the ball 7 times and catching 8 of 10 targets. I would play the rushing attempts alone at the TE position. If you fade Hill, the best pivot is Alvin Kamara. He is also a guy who can get ten targets a game while also being used as a RB1. The issue is he is $2,700 more and takes up an RB spot. 

TJ Hockenson 

Great call out last week on the WinDaily livestream that more production should be headed Hockenson’s way with Josh Oliver being ruled out.  Oliver had taken 56% of snaps the previous week, while Hockenson had 48% in his third game back. Last week, we saw Hockenson shoot up to 68% while Johnny Mundt picked up the slack behind him. The Cardinals have been solid against the TE, only allowing a single receiving TD this season, but I still like the salary of Hockenson ($4,400 DK) coming off a 7-reception game. It is also worth noting Justin Jefferson was covered up last week, so Sam Darnold had to find somewhere else to throw the ball. 

Dallas Goedert

I like him regardless of DeVonta Smith’s plays, but he gets better if the receiver is out. The Ravens ranked 23rd in DVOA against the TE, and more passes should be funneled his way if Smith is out. 

Others to consider:

• Mark Andrews: $3,900 is too cheap
• Will Dissly 
• The Pittsburgh tight ends are in a good spot, but Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington are splitting snaps. It is hard to pin down. You can consider in large field GPP if multi-entering. 

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays

Sunday Updates:

• Terry McLaurin gains some steam with Trevon Diggs
• Moving Mike Evans down a bit
• Play Abdullah if you want. Salary makes sense.

Quarterback Rankings

• Baker Mayfield
• Sam Darnold: favorite low-owned, large-field GPP QB. High risk.
• Bo Nix
• Drake Maye
• Tommy DeVito: You don’t need Malik Nabers if you have Tommy DeVito, you need Tommy DeVito if you have Malik Nabers. $4K is hard to say no to. 

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt

Last week, I was high on him, and he busted, but I will go right back in the nuts matchup against the Carolina Panthers. They have allowed a league-most rushing TDs (14) in just ten games. I would have even considered him if Isiah Pacheco was in, but now that he is confirmed, you can feel confident that Hunt exceeds value here. Nothing has changed with the Mahomes passing game. They still don’t have enough reliable bodies to throw it, too, and they won’t need to. The Chiefs are up against a short week (another reason Pacheco is out), so they might as well just run Kareem Hunt into the ground and keep the rest of the guys healthy for the day after the Thanksgiving game against the Raiders. 

Brian Robinson

We just touched on the league’s worst rush defense, but the Cowboys are making a case for it by season’s end. They now allow the second most rushing TDs (13) in just 10 weeks. The teams with the next most rushing TDs allowed (NO, JAX, WAS, CIN) all have played 11 games, and three are not even on the slate. Robinson is priced right next to Kareem Hunt, and they are both clearly in the best spots on the slate. They will be popular af but it makes perfect sense. If you want to get different for ownership’s sake, I would be overweight rather than under. 

Others to consider:

If you want to spend up on CMC or Joe Mixon, I can’t really talk you off of it. 

• De’Von Achane
• Kenneth Walker
• James Conner
• Tyrone Tracy 
• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Bucky Irving
• Audric Esteme (he still made the Milly Maker winner last week, and if his number is called randomly by Sean Payton this week, then he will do it again)

Wide Receiver 

Mike Evans

The Giants were the worst team against the WR1 in week 11 (that are on the slate). Mike Evans will clearly be the WR1 and, if 100%, could easily break double-digit targets. Todd Bowles said that as long as he is 100% (paraphrasing), he will be out there. The Giants allow the most production in the league to the deep left side of the field. Guess who runs on the left more than any other Buccaneers receiver? Mike Evans. 

Josh Downs

This guy has been on a heater, no matter who the quarterback is. He has been piling up receptions while scoring twice in the past four games. His salary is only $6,200 in a game where the Colts should certainly be trailing the Lions. Due to gamescript, the Lions are the most targeted secondary in the league while also giving up the most receptions. They allow the 4^th most fantasy points to receivers (39.8), trailing only the Ravens, Vikings, and Jaguars. Josh Downs has the 4^th highest target percentage in the league (for starters) while only being behind Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Malik Nabers. He is ahead of guys like Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. That is a pretty good case for Downs to get high consideration in your main build. 

Minnesota Vikings Receivers 

Everyone is scared to target the Bears secondary, but they have been slipping a bit lately. Last week, they allowed Christian Watson to get 150 yards while Jordan Love threw for 261 yards and one passing TD. The Bears ranked 30^th against the WR2 that week while ranked 10^th against the WR1. When you look at the cornerbacks for the Bears, Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon allow the first and second most yards per route run on the entire slate. That was shocking to see. I know they are both “good” corners, but those numbers are concerning, and I doubt anyone else is pointing this out. Justin Jefferson will see some Jaylon Johnson, but it isn’t a shadow situation. This lines up great for him, as well as for Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor. Not to mention that Hockenson is back, giving Sam Darnold plenty of options. The Vikings are my sneaky stack of the week in large-field GPPs. 

Adam Thielen

He will get the majority of the slot routes in a game the Panthers will be trailing. I have heard people chattering that the Panthers should run the young receivers to see what they have, which they will, but Thielen will also be highly involved. Bryce Young isn’t worried about showing off the new toys. This guy is worried about keeping his job. The best thing he can do is what has worked before, which is feeding Adam Thielen.

Tyreek Hill 

Patriots stand-out corner Christian Gonzalez is questionable. If he is out, Hill would be in the position to put up a vintage big day. If he is in, I would pump the breaks on Hill just a touch. The Patriots were 26^th against the WR1 in Week 11, and Gonzalez being out isn’t going to make that number any better. 

Courtland Sutton

Perhaps the most obvious mispricing of the week.

Note:

Other Good Options:

• Nico Collins: in contention for the WR1 on the slate, will avoid the slot against the Titans, which they defend better than the outside where Collins operates 
• Marvin Harrison
• DK Metcalf > JSN
• Terry McLaurin 
• Jayden Reed/Christian Watson – no one knows where it is going to go consistently in Green Bay, but these are the top two options.
• Jameson Williams 
• Alec Pierce (leads the slate in Air-Yards)
• Calvin Ridley (I loved him last week and had TD called back; he will continue to get the targets)
• Demario Douglas/Kendrick Bourne
• Sterling Shepard (better if Evans happens to be out; fine large field GPP either way)

Tight End Rankings

Value: Luke Schoonmaker

Sam LaPorta

Ok, $4,300 is way too low for Sam LaPorta. The Colts allow the 6^th most fantasy points and 3^rd most receptions to the position. The Lions spread it around to everyone and are the highest-scoring offense in the league, putting up 33 points per game. 

Theo Johnson

The Buccaneers have been poor against the Tight End. They are ranked 30^th in DVOA against TE. At the same time, allowing the 5^th most fantasy points to the position. Johnson comes in at only $2,700 on DraftKings and may benefit from increased check-downs from the Giants QB2. 

• Brock Bowers
• Travis Kelce
• Trey McBride
• Cade Otton
• Spann-Ford as a Schoonmaker pivot

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.