Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings
You can argue that receiver is the deepest position in fantasy along with the quarterback spot and I’m not sure I’d fight you on that. My early lean if you’re drafting now is typically going to accentuate running back early unless the studs are gone when I pick. The position itself has so many big names that it can be tough to separate but that’s what we’re trying to do in the Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings!
Note – Any ADP (average draft position) is taken from FantasyData.com. In addition, these are my personal ranks and not WinDaily Staff ranks.
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings
- Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs – There are not many receivers that can finish as the WR2 in PPR setting with just a 23.2% target share in his offense. Hill accomplished that in 2020 despite being seventh in receiving yards and ninth in targets among receivers. Scoring 17 total touchdowns will bump your scoring, but what happens if a secondary receiver doesn’t emerge for KC? What if the bulk of the 14% target share Sammy Watkins left just goes towards Hill and Kelce? We could see Hill go absolutely bonkers this season.
- Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills – He led the league in targets, receptions, and yards in 2020. Even if you’re not the biggest Josh Allen fan, the Bills clearly understand how to use Diggs in this offense. I’m not sure how you could have him anywhere outside of the top-three.
- DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals – Only Diggs had more targets last season and the Cards played at the second-fastest pace in the league last year. Nuk had a 29.4% target share and 32.7% of the air yards in this offense last year. The additions of A.J. Green and Rondale Moore should open the field up more, in theory. Hopkins will always have the bulk of the coverage but Kyler Murray should still have room to grow as a traditional quarterback. Hopkins seems utterly safe.
- Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints – Perhaps folks are spooked after an injury-riddled season or the retirement of Drew Brees. Maybe folks don’t like Taysom Hill as the quarterback potentially with Thomas. Regardless, Thomas with an ADP of WR10 is crazy. With Hill, Thomas had four games. He posted 9/104/0, 4/50/1, 9/105/0, and 8/84/0. In the four reception game, Hill only threw 16 passes since the Broncos played without a quarterback. Thomas accounted for 28% of the targets and 43.6% of the air yards for the Saints. There’s little reason to fade him that far.
- D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks – This beast of a man showed flashes of taking a giant leap last season, finishing as the WR7 on just 87 receptions (17th in the league). He played 92% of the snaps and accounted for nearly 40% of the air yards. If Metcalf adds just a touch more consistency (five games under 50 yards and he doesn’t catch a ton of passes to help), a top 3-5 finish is just a matter of time.
- Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons – We got a glimpse of Ridley’s life without Julio Jones last year since Julio only played nine games and life for Ridley was good. He finished as the WR4 in PPG and WR5 overall, hauling in 90 receptions and racking up 41.6% of the air yards. Ridley was also tied for the most end zone targets at 20. That may drop some with Kyle Pitts in the fold but Ridley is among the best receivers in the game.
- Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – Tell me who his quarterback is and he can shoot up to number 2-3 or drop out of the top 10 completely.
- Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings – He walked through the door and smashed as a rookie, just missing a top-five finish. He owned the team lead in air yards and target share but finished third in red zone target share. He racked up 475 more receiving yards than teammate Adam Thielen and even if that gap closes, the 14-7 lead in touchdowns would be tough to repeat for Thielen.
- Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers – Allen played 14 games and finished just 19 targets behind Diggs for the league lead. He led the Chargers in target share at 26.7%, red-zone target share at 26.2%, receptions, and yards. Allen is a monster regardless of format, but PPR remains his best.
- A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans – Brown was likely top-five before Julio became a Titan. They lost roughly 39% of the target share in 2020 between Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis, not to mention about 33% of the air yards. Julio won’t take up all of that but I’d feel less comfortable taking Brown inside the top-five now. He and Mike Evans tied for the least receptions among any top 20 receivers last season.
- Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears – Robinson slogged through another terrible year of QB play to finish fourth in receptions, eighth in yards, and 30% of the air yards in the Bears offense. If Justin Fields hits the ground running, Robinson could flirt with a top-five finish. He’s been one of the best receivers in football for almost his entire career, he just hasn’t had the quarterback to totally prove it.
- Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams – Talk about underrated, Woods is the poster boy. He had another top 12 finish last season and gets a massive upgrade at quarterback. Woods and Cooper Kupp were almost identical in air yards and targets last season but Woods tacked on 24 rushing attempts to put him over the top.
- Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team – Among receivers that played at least 12 games in 2020, Scary Terry led in air yards share at a massive 42%. Washington was just 30th in yards per attempt and Ryan Fitzpatrick will have zero fear about throwing the ball downfield. McLaurin was also 10th in targets in the league last season and it could all come together this year.
- Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers – It’s been lost in the shuffle a bit, but Johnson finished sixth in targets among receivers. He was injured and left early in a couple of games and yet he led the Steelers in target share at 22.9%. Additionally, he led in RZ and EZ targets while finishing just nine receptions behind JuJu Smith-Schuster for the team lead. I worry a lot about the offense overall but running back Najee Harris and their number one receiver can overcome the flaws.
- CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys – I’m not likely to have Lamb in redraft because he’s going as the WR13 in ADP. Dak Prescott is back in action and one would think Lamb would easily exceed his 63.8% snap share from 2020. The target share was only 18% and the air yards share was 22.7% which are both solid, but I’m not sure he should be flirting with a top 10 ranking for some. You’re banking on a second-year leap, which isn’t crazy but it’s also not guaranteed. He finished as the WR24 last year on the 22nd most targets.
- Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – We’ll get a full season with the trio of receivers as opposed to Antonio Brown entering in the middle of the season like 2020. I’m leaning Evans for the lead dog since he led the team in targets, air yard share, RZ targets, and EZ targets. It could be tough to get these guys right every week which is the only reason I’m leaving Evans outside the top 15.
- Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings – Thielen was the only receiver in the top 10 from 2020 that finished under 1,000 yards but that’s what 14 touchdowns do for you. You’re not drafting him in the top 10 anymore and that risk is already built-in. Thielen still held a 24% target share and only was about 1.5% off in the air yard share lead behind Jefferson.
- Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans – With how much of the passing game from 2020 that is open, Julio walks into a dynamite spot. If the Titans come up into the top half of the league in pass attempts, Julio could have another great season. I’ll be super interested to see how the work splits between him and A.J. Brown.
- Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys – Dallas played at the fastest pace in the league last year and their offense is built to throw the ball all over the yard. Cooper led the team in targets at 130 last year which was 12th in the league. He also led in RZ targets, EZ targets, yards, and tied for the lead in touchdowns. You may well get a bargain if that repeats in 2021 and Lamb finishes second in points on the team.
- DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers – The Panthers have a new quarterback in Sam Darnold, and Curtis Samuel is gone, so the offense will absolutely look different. Still, Moore led last year in air yard share at 40.8% and racked up 118 targets. Moore also led the team in yards and EZ targets. Samuel ate up 12 RZ targets, 18.9% of the air yard share, and 19.4% of the target share. Even with a healthy CMC, Moore could be taking a significant step forward. He’ll be one I watch closely in the preseason.
- Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – This is generally where things start to get trickier. Godwin only finished about 55 points behind Evans last year playing four games fewer. What is a little worrisome with this ranking is Antonio Brown had a 20% share of the targets, leading the entire team in his snaps. Godwin was 15th in points per game but it’s very difficult to pick. Perhaps the path is taking the last Tampa receiver and using the lowest pick on that player.
- Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams – If we liked Woods so much and they were nearly identical in the metrics, it only stands to reason Kupp can’t be that far behind.
- Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks – He looks great in seasonal data but was a pain to play every week. He seemed to either go nuclear or leave you wanting with around 8-10 points. If Metcalf truly becomes the alpha, Lockett could be more of a second fiddle this year. He still should have a 22-24% target share even if Metcalf is basically locked into the air yards lead.
- Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase seems to be universally regarded as the WR1 in the Bengals offense but I’m not sold yet. In 2020, A.J. Green had a 30.5% air yard share and an 18.4% target share. Even with that, Higgins ended as the WR28 with terrible quarterback play through six-plus games. Does Chase take over more than the Green share from 2020? That could be a stretch. Higgins only played 74% of the snaps last year and we should expect that to climb in his second season.
- Kenny Golladay, New York Giants – I believe that Golladay is a talented receiver but I don’t believe in his quarterback by a long shot. The offense in New York is more crowded than Detroit was as well, leading to enough concerns from me to skip him most of the time.
- Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers – The rookie last year played just 12 games but led the team in air yards share at 32%, RZ targets, EZ targets, yards, and points. Now, that’s not exactly fair because George Kittle only played eight games and Deebo Samuel played seven. Still, he showed why the 49ers moved up in the draft to add him to their talented offense. The aDOT was 9.3 yards compared to 2.2 for Samuel. Aiyuk was a top 35 option last season despite 12 games played and wildly questionable quarterback play.
- Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals – Chase is one of the more well-rounded receiving prospects to enter the league in the past few years. With the connection Chase and Joe Burrow showed at LSU, Chase could walk in and be dominant off the bat. I would be a little cautious with him but one or two preseason splash plays and we can see the ADP fly up.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers – Pittsburgh has plenty of concerns but JuJu sitting at WR33 in ADP doesn’t make a lot of sense. He was seventh in receptions last season and finished as the WR16, well beyond where he’s being taken. The 5.5-yard aDOT can actually help JuJu in PPR because if the offensive line can’t hold up as much as Ben Roethlisberger would like, it could mean a lot of quick passes, just like 2020.
- Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns – Before OBJ got hurt, he racked up a 33.4% share of the air yards and 21.9% target share. He still finished fourth in yards on the team and even though the Browns won’t throw the ball a ton, he is still the alpha on the squad. It’s kind of crazy to think OBJ is barely in the top 30 after the start of his career, but here we are.
- DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles – It’s very difficult to rank Smith. Not only does he have individual questions about the transfer from Alabama to the NFL, but Jalen Hurts also has yet to prove he’s a capable NFL-caliber quarterback. I would likely prefer Smith in best ball because he’s going to have some big games but I wouldn’t be shocked if he has a few duds as well.
- DJ Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars – The chemistry between him and Trevor Lawerence will be something to watch in camp and preseason. He was the only Jaguar to hit an air yard share above 20% (35.5%) and the target share was 20% in 13 games. Jacksonville added proven veteran option Marvin Jones but Chark should still maintain the alpha role in the passing game. We just need to get an idea of how the targets get distributed between Chark, Jones, Laviska Shenault, and Travis Etienne.
- Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – The only reason he’s this low is the uncertainty of Deshaun Watson. Cooks was in the top 18 in both points per game and points overall last year and that was with Will Fuller playing 11 games. Cooks racked up a 30% air yards share and a 23.8% target share. We just need the information on the quarterback.
- Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – If Tom Brady hones in on him early, AB is going to climb quickly in the ranks. As I mentioned, he led the team in target share when he played. That’s going to be very important to monitor this preseason.
- Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos – I love Sutton as a talent and he only got to play one game last season before tearing his ACL. If Denver manages to acquire Aaron Rodgers (speculation based on rumor), Sutton would have a rocket ship strapped to his back. As it stands, the duo of Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater could hold him back a good bit.
- Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts – The second-year receiver is tied to quarterback Carson Wentz, and that could be an issue. Pittman flashed upside last season and accumulated a 13.8% target share and 16.3% air yards share as a rookie. He didn’t get a single end zone look but he led the receiving corps in the snap rate at 77.8%. I’d love to gamble at this stage with the next alpha in a passing game and be wrong with my third/fourth receiver. He could easily be the lead option ahead of T.Y. Hilton this season.
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