The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 8 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Once again, the chalk – and likely a very heavy chalk – will be Tom Brady, who seems to be making a fine second home for himself among the myriad weapons in Tampa Bay. As much as the philosophies of HCs Bill Belichick and Bruce Arians may differ, he’s finding success with a few of the same ingredients: a fluid but talented group of receivers and backs, a defense that’s providing him with excellent opportunities and the luxury of patience, and an emphasis on protecting the ball and taking what the opposing team gives you. The best way to tackle this showdown may be to find our differentiation in the flex spots rather than get crazy contrarian at captain.
One of the weapons available to Brady this season will be Antonio Brown, but he’s not eligible to play until Week 9. With Chris Godwin (broken finger) out this week, we’re left with the uber-talented Mike Evans, TE Rob Gronkowski and Scotty Miller (hip, groin) as Brady’s main receiving weapons.
But just like in Week 5, my favorite pivot is probably Ronald Jones – who’s a much less risky play these days given how integral he is to the early down running game. In a matchup against the Giants that may get out of hand quickly, he’s the best bet to salt away the game with chunky gains and pile up the yardage.
If the Giants can keep things close, we could see some impactful plays from Leonard Fournette, who Arians recently labeled his “nickel” running back after he led the Bucs backfield with 40 snaps in Week 7 against the Raiders. We could certainly consider using Fournette as a pivot from Jones – or even alongside RJ2 in a few large-field GPPs.
For the Gaints, I’m narrowing my focus to Daniel Jones, WRs Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, TE Evan Engram and a smattering of RBs Wayne Gallman and Dion Lewis. Given the effectiveness of the Bucs defense this season (and the viability of the Bucs DST as an option on DraftKings this week) I can’t imagine playing more than two Giants in many of these contests,
Golden Tate isn’t getting enough targets for him to be an essential part of my builds, but he’s certainly an option if you’re making hundreds of lineups.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Play four Giants and just two Bucs. The spread here heavily favors the Bucs and they should be doing most of the scoring tonight.
DO: Consider Leonard Fournette – who’s been seeing more action and has supplanted LeSean McCoy as the go-to passing game RB – and fringe options like rookie WR Tyler Johnson and TE Cameron Brate, even with Gronk on a tear lately.
DON’T: Get too cute and make many lineups without Tom Brady. You don’t have to use him up top, but i’’s hard to imagine a scenario where Brady doesn’t get 20+ fantasy points in this smash spot.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the first Week 7 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
While both the Giants and Eagles defenses have not been the teams’ main issues this season, it’s hard not to like both Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones in this showdown, and there are probably a few ways to fit both of them into your lineups – especially if we use one of the defenses in the hopes of a pick six. With all the injuries facing the Eagles, it’s not hard to see a low-salary player for them emerging with a viable fantasy performance and being worth the juice of using in the Captain spot on DraftKings.
On FanDuel, it’s going to be very hard to get away from Boston Scott at the still-depressed price of just $6,500 – although using him at CPT may not be advisable. Scott and Corey Clement are the Philly backs who’ll get the touches this week, with Scott in the starting role and Clement likely handling goal line work and about 8-10 touches. Both are capable of monster days if they get the proverbial “hot hand.”
DeSean Jackson is expected to make his return for the Eagles this week and could be an interesting CPT on DK, where he’s sub-$9K. Jackson headlines a group of capable receivers that has seen the emergence of Travis Fulgham in recent weeks. Fading the popular Fulgham might be one way to get some leverage on the field, especially since we don’t have any idea how much he’ll contribute with D-Jax back in the fold.
The Giants will rely on a slightly hobbled Darius Slayton, TE Evan Engram (great bounce-back candidate this week) and a relatively inexpensive Devonta Freeman (handling most of the touches at RB) to move the ball on offense, with Golden Tate checking in as a solid low-price option – especially if Slayton is rendered less effective because of the lingering foot injury. While Slayton doesn’t have an injury designation ahead of this matchup and has more multi-TD upside than probably any other non-QB on TNF, he’s still a risk. There’s even talk of activating Sterling Shepard (toe, just back from IR) before this game, but he’s still a GTD – so stay tuned.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Be afraid to play the Giants defense, especially since they have some playmakers, Wentz has been erratic, and the Eagles offense is pretty banged up.
DO: Check the injury report and chatter before lock to determine who’s healthy and who’s not. Football is one sport where players below 100 percent can be active and used as decoys.
DON’T: Forget about Eagles TE Richard Rodgers. He’s cheap and will be the starter with both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert out.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Wow. The days leading up to Week 14 kick off have been full of injury drama and news revelations. I’ll touch on the Dalvin Cook saga, Josh Jacobs’ shoulder, Evan Engram’s dance with the practice report (and DFS players’ hearts) and other players’ status in this DFS Injury Fades and Plays. Note that the following prices are from FanDuel.
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Dalvin Cook ($8,700)
There is a good amount of confusion surrounding Cook’s situation, and many DFS players aren’t sure how to view him. It is a bit ridiculous that Cook suffered an injury severe enough to rule him out on Monday night, but is no longer on the practice report. Not only that but when the cameras panned to him and the trainers, it was evident Cook was having an emotional response to the injury indicating that it was extremely painful for him. My brief twitter conversation with Dr. Jesse Morse is below:
Situations like this are exactly why injury analysts are crucial. Below I’ll outline possible outcomes involving Cook and Alexander Mattison ($5,100).
Ultimately, this situation makes Cook a fade in cash, but at $5,100 Mattison warrants consideration in cash simply because any way you slice it, he’ll more than likely see an increased workload.
Josh Jacobs ($7,400)
Jacobs is not a cash option this week, period. He came out and admitted he has a fractured shoulder, which can help to explain his lack of passing game involvement if this has been a season-long injury. To make matters worse in DFS, he did not practice this week until a very limited session on Friday. He’s also a bit pricey against the middle of the road Titans and if the Raiders continue to give up points by the dozen, Jacobs can easily be game-scripted out. The only player I’m considering in this game is Ryan Tannehill ($7,300).
Le’Veon Bell ($7,300)
Bell missed Thursday and Friday practice with an illness, which is enough for me to completely fade him from a health perspective. We’ve been down this road with Tyler Lockett in Week 13 who followed the same pattern and saw a season-low in targets and snap share. Bell, if active, could be dealing with residual fatigue and dehydration that will cap his touches and production. Instead, I’m pivoting to the Miami passing game that has been on fire lately and is bolstered by the fact that star safety Jamal Adams has already been ruled out with an ankle injury.
The rest of the players in the DFS Injury Fades and Plays are tournament plays and only cash considerations for those who abide by the risk-it-biscuit ideology.
Darwin Thompson ($5,200)
Thompson is not a viable cash option but has a chance to be a slate breaker in tournaments. With the loss of Darrel Williams to the IR and Damien Williams still recovering from a ribs injury, Thompson vaults into the (basically) co-starter position alongside LeSean McCoy ($6,100). Given that the Chiefs signed perennial just-a-guy Spencer Ware, I expect Thompson to see enough work to warrant free square status this week against the Patriots.
David Njoku ($4,900)
Njoku should be completely healthy from a wrist fracture he suffered in Week Two and is a middle of the road option against the lowly Bengals defense this week. From a health perspective, he should be more than ready to go and given the injury should not have impacted his ability to aerobic conditioning, he could be another slate breaker at low ownership. The concern I have with Njoku is his quarterback, who has been a disappointment this year, to say the least. From a cash perspective, Njoku is still on my wait-and-see list, but I’ll be using him in tournaments this week given his opponent, projected ownership and low price tag.
Evan Engram
Engram (and Rhett Ellison) has officially been ruled out. Kaden Smith will be a chalky option against the Eagles in the showdown slates, but he’s a decent option considering the single-game slates are really more about ownership and being contrarian in different spots. Use Smith as a free square to differentiate yourself elsewhere. For example, Saquon Barkley could be low owned due to his recent lack of production. Stacking him with the ghost of the ghost of check down Eli Manning.
Thank you for reading my DFS Injury Fades and Plays for Week 14. If you have any questions don’t hesitate to find on Twitter or comment them down below. Good luck!
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Photo courtesy of Ser Amantio di Nicola.
Week 14 is here and the window to hit big in NFL DFS is closing soon. Read my injury analysis of Dalvin Cook and the fades/plays across the league to help optimize your lineups. Let’s get to it. Note that all of the following prices are from FanDuel.
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Josh Jacobs ($7,400)
Jacobs came out this week and said that he has a “fractured shoulder” and he “just plays through it” which I find extremely odd. The assumption here is that if the shoulder is truly fractured, the medical staff doesn’t believe it is bad enough to shut him down. The most commonly fractured parts of the shoulder are the upper arm and the shoulder blade, but really there’s no way to know exactly what the injury is. What we do know is that Jacobs has seen a significant decline in targets in neutral and negative game scripts going from 5 to 3 to 1, and somehow to 0 (that’s zero) targets in a 40-9 loss to the Chiefs in Week 14. This decline in targets correlates perfectly with a shoulder injury as any type of scapulothoracic and glenohumeral elevation (i.e. raising arms to catch a ball)
With that said, Jacobs is a fade in cash games for me and I’m not confident using him in tournaments either until further notice. Unfortunately, neither Jalen Richard or Deandre Washington are usable in either formats.
Greg Olsen ($4,900)
Olsen is dealing with his third documented concussion which means he’s entered the point of no return in terms of predicting a quick return to play. It also doesn’t help that he’s nearing age 35 and the brain’s plasticity naturally declines with age. All of this means that Olsen is in legitimate jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game against the Falcons. He didn’t practice on Wednesday, and if he’s inactive on Sunday, Ian Thomas ($4,000) becomes an enticingly cheap option against the Falcons who’s defense gives up passing yards like it’s their job. Consider Thomas a cash game play in order to jam in your studs on this slate.
Update: Olsen did not practice Thursday again. He’ll have to clear protocol before early Sunday morning to play.
Taylor Gabriel ($8,00)
Gabriel remains in the concussion protocol following his second of the season and is in jeopardy to miss Week 14. In his absence Anthony Miller ($10,500) has come into his own as a second year starter and makes for an excellent tournament play in a game that the Bears should be down. Consider Miller a play in cash games as well in the showdown slate.
Update: Gabriel has officially been ruled out.
Dalvin Cook ($8,700)
If I title my DFS article “Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays” I should probably give a thorough analysis on Dalvin Cook, so here it goes. Tuesday Mike Zimmer said Cook is “fine” and didn’t offer many details about the injury. Cook offered us more insight and said his injury is “weird” but that he’ll be good to go for Week 14. He also added that the defender who caused the fumble “hit him good” in the spot that has been bothering him since the Vikings played the Broncos. Although the video of Cook fumbling in the third quarter is not great, the fact that the injury is labeled by the team as “chest” coupled with the video itself, leads me to believe that Dalvin Cook is dealing with a sternoclavicular (SC) joint injury.
Now, these injuries can be very painful but much like the AC joint, the potential for dislocation is the primary concern. If Cook takes a hit in the right spot, the clavicle can be knocked out of socket causing a whole host of issues that would land him on the IR.
With all that said, Cook has a decent chance to play this week depending on his practice activity, so be sure to check back in with me during the week. This injury makes Cook a fade in cash which is unfortunate considering this salivating matchup with Detroit who is awful against the run. The risk of dislocation and/or re-injury to the SC joint is too great for me personally trust him. Even if Cook is active, there is a chance that Alexander Mattison’s ($5,100) role is expanded to protect Cook in what should be an easy win for the Vikings. Obviously Mattison is the play here in tournaments, but consider pivoting to the Vikings defense ($4,800) in cash who should bully rookie David Blough now that he’s put some game on film.
Adam Thielen ($7,300)
It is obvious at this point that Thielen’s hamstring injury was made much worse by him trying to come back too early in Week Nine. He did not practice on Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday will be much more telling. Regardless, I can’t see Thielen playing this week, but even if he does he’s a fade in all formats due to the injury’s history. This vaults Stefon Diggs ($8,000) into consideration for cash games and tournaments as his floor and ceiling have been solid with Thielen out.
Update: Thielen did not practice again on Thursday and will need to at least participate in Friday’s practice to have a shot to play. I’m not confident in this happening.
Julio Jones ($7,800)
Jones is recovering from (what I believed to be) an AC sprain that he suffered in Week 12. The consensus from the reports are that Julio would have given it a go on Thanksgiving if not for the quick Thursday turnaround. Although Jones has not provided many ceiling games this season, I like him as a contrarian play in cash games this week against an atrocious Carolina defense that just fired their defensive minded coach Ron Rivera.
Austin Hooper ($6,600)
Hooper is recovering from an MCL sprain that he suffered about a month ago. The injury was a grade II sprain and has kept him out of practice until Monday this week. He’s now on track to play on Sunday barring any setbacks, but he’s on my “prove it” list before I play him in cash games. If Hooper still cannot go on Sunday, consider Russell Gage ($5,700) in tournaments who has done just fine filling in for the injured pass catchers of the Falcons. Atlanta plays Carolina in Week 14, a franchise who just fired their head coach and is in disarray. This could be a big game for the Atlanta offense.
Tyler Lockett
Hear me out. I get it, Lockett has only one catch over two games, but we have to consider the circumstances. In Week Ten, Lockett suffered a significant contusion to his lower leg that caused a two night hospital stay. That contusion lingered through the bye and showed in Week 12 as he tied a season low 19 routes run, a number that has dipped that low only one other time all season. Then in Week 13, Lockett was dealing with the flu but still played against the Vikings. In that MNF game, Locket played a season low 87% of snaps and saw five fewer targets than his season average. These numbers come against a struggling Minnesota secondary that ranks 14th in pass DVOA. I get into the numbers in my tweet thread below:
After the win on Monday night, Lockett was quoted as saying “I’ve been sick all week. I just want to go to bed.” What I’m saying here is that this is the window to play Tyler Lockett at low ownership in cash against a Rams secondary that is ranked 12th in pass DVOA.
Update: After not practicing on Thursday or Friday leading up to Week 13, Lockett is not even listed on the practice report for Week 14. As the kids say it might once again be Tyler Lockett SZN.
Evan Engram
Despite the fact that he hasn’t practiced since Week Nine, Engram has told reporters he’s optimistic about his return in Week 14. I’m not sold on this optimism as his foot injury has lingered as serious foot/ankle injuries tend to do. If Engram is active I’m fading him in cash. If he’s inactive yet again, fire up either Rhett Ellison (concussion) or Kaden Smith in tournaments against this Eagles defense who just got torched by the fightin’ Ryan Fitzpatricks.
Thank you for reading Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays. Hopefully I was able to provide some insight on this week’s injuries and provide potential fades/plays. Good luck in DFS this week!
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Thanksgiving is a beautiful holiday that brings together everything we love: family, good food, and a mini slate of DFS. This week will be different as I’ll be putting out two separate fade/play injury articles. Because of the short week, the Thanksgiving Injury Fades/Plays article is at a disadvantage, but I’ll do my best to project every significant injury that could affect lineups this week. So let’s dive in. Keep in mind that all of the following prices are from DraftKings.
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Jeff Driskel ($5,500)
Normally I wouldn’t mention a player like Jeff Driskel in the Thanksgiving Fades/Plays article but he is the Lions starter, it’s a shortened slate, and he’s dealing with a hamstring strain. Matt Patricia doesn’t say a whole lot, but even he admitted on Tuesday that Driskel’s hamstring is “pretty sore” which led to- checks to google again- David Blough taking first-team reps. Driskel is at serious risk for missing Thursday’s game but even if he’s active his rushing ability will likely be capped. Ultimately this means that at just $2,500 the Bears defense is an absolute steal regardless of Driskel’s game status.
Update: David Blough will officially start for the Lions tomorrow.
Taylor Gabriel ($4,300)
Gabriel is out with this third documented concussion, so first and foremost I hope he’s doing well as a human. His absence will open up opportunities for Anthony Miller ($3,900) who over the last two weeks has seen 20 targets and totaled 12 receptions. Miller should garner serious consideration in tournaments on Turkey Day.
Update: Gabriel has officially been ruled out. Smash the Bears DST in all formats.
Julio Jones (7,300)
Jones injured his shoulder at some point in the first half on Sunday, but I’m having a difficult time identifying when and exactly what happened. Video analysis can usually give me more context, but I can’t find anything definitive. The best I can come up with is an AC injury (think James Conner) late in the second quarter when he was taken down over the middle of the field. The hope is that since he came back to play later in the game that the injury is not serious despite missing two practices this week.
Jones hasn’t put up great numbers this year, but if he’s active it’s difficult to envision not sprinkling him into a few lineups based on his history of playing through injuries. An added layer to this story is that shut down corner Marshon Lattimore, who held Jones to three catches for 79 yards in Week Ten, returned to practice from his own injury last Friday. Lattimore has continued practicing in a limited fashion this week and has a chance to play. So in conclusion, this is where I stand on Jones:
Due to the context of this slate, there is obviously little clarity as of now, so bookmark this article for updates as the next day and a half unfolds. Understand that because of the murkiness to Jones’ injury he’s a more volatile play than usual, but still usable.
Update: Julio Jones is officially considered questionable for Thursday night. He certainly does not need to practice to play, but there is some cause for concern.
Devonta Freeman ($5,100)
Freeman is making his return from what appears to be grade I turf toe, which has a reputation of lingering. Despite the fact that Freeman is the only show in town at running back for the Falcons, it’s difficult to suggest him in cash. The primary reason for the lack of confidence is that the Saints are ranked 8th in rushing DVOA but are middle of the pack against the pass. In a game that the Saints are favored by more than a touchdown, Freeman could see a few targets, but considering his injury I’m only trusting him in tournaments. To Freeman’s credit, he has stayed relatively healthy this season missing only two games with a minor injury. After not having played a full season since 2016 and missed almost the entire 2018 campaign, it seems Freeman’s offseason work is benefiting him.
Austin Hooper ($5,900)
Hooper is highly unlikely to return this week, so look at the previously mentioned receivers to fill the void.
Update: Hooper has officially been ruled out.
Thank you for reading the Thanksgiving Injury Fades/Plays article! Also, utilize my post-Thanksgiving Injury Fades/Plays piece scheduled for Saturday. I’ll discuss Adam Thielen, T.Y. Hilton, Damien Williams, Evan Engram, and several other injuries DFS players are itching to hear about. Until then, be sure to check back with me as updates for the Thanksgiving slate roll in.
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Featured image courtesy of Georgia National Guard.
It’s Week 8 DFS of the NFL season, and I’ve got your Sunday main slate plays for Tight Ends and DSTs to win you some big green in cash and GPP!
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Houston doesn’t normally give up a ton of points to TEs, but Waller is no ordinary TE. And last week Eric Ebron had a nice game against them, so the matchup should be more favorable than the red numbers indicate. I’m going to have massive shares of Waller in cash and GPPs.
Hooper should get a boatload of targets from whomever plays QB for the Falcons this week, and he’s been the best TE in football this season (by a small margin over Darren Waller). Roll with him confidently against a Seattle team that’s been “no great shakes” – as the old-timers said – against TEs. He’s safe for cash and fine for GPPs.
Engram missed a week with an MCL sprain, but he’s apparentlyshed the wrap that was on his left knee – and despite the fact that he didn’t domuch in Sunday’s 27-21 loss to the Cardinals, he’s in a great spot now that he’shealthy and facing a battered Lions defense that’s allowed some big games to tightends. He’s a great option for GPPs – we know his upside and the recency biaswill keep him from high ownership.
Kittle (groin) just got cleared to play in Sunday’s gameagainst the Panthers, so I’m a little worried about cash games but he’s atop target for GPPs. As long as Kittle suits up and there’s no talk of arestriction, we’re getting aboard.
Ertz and the Eagles’ passing attack got stymied by the Cowboys,and the stud tight end ended up being a stinker. Worry not, Ertz fans, becausehe’s still the top dog TE in Philly, not Dallas Goedert, and the Eagles will bemaking use of him against a Buffalo team where they’ll have to throw underneathand trust their big targets in the flats.
Henry’s 2019 season got offto a bad start, but since returning from injury he’s had two big games – one abona fide monster (8-100-2 vs. PIT). The Bears have actually been just okayagainst TEs this year, so Henry is still fully in play against a defense that’sranked No. 22 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Ebron could see a larger chunk of targets if Jack Doyle sitson Sunday, and is coming off a big game where he caught four of five targetsfor 70 yards and a touchdown in a win over Houston. The TD was a nice one, too,as he got his feet in bounds on a short TD pass in the third that helped propelthem to victory. Denver is okay against TEs, but his upside shouldn’t be significantlylimited.
The rookie tight end hasbeen building more consistency in his game but had some mistakes last week againstthe Vikings. We’re hoping for a high-upside outlier (like Week 1) in a matchupagainst the Giants, who will have trouble containing this talented pass catcherand athlete.
Brate takes on some moretargets with O.J. Howard out Sunday, which propels him into GPP territory at apretty low price on DK. It’s a lot on FanDuel, but he’s still in play forlarge-field GPPs – he’s got two TDs in his last three games and Howard’stargets, while minimal, should be heading his way.
Gerald Everett, LAR vs. CIN(FD $6,100, DK $4,300)
Darren Fells, HOU vs. OAKIND (FD $5,100, DK $3,400)
Jordan Akins, HOU vs. OAK (FD$4,900), DK $2,800)
Ben Watson, NE vs. CLE (FD$4,900, DK $3,000)
Foster Moreau, OAK at HOU(FD $4,900, DK $2,700)
The Pats remain the best defense in football by a large marginand get a team that coughs it up quite a bit. Do we really need to tell you toplay this unit in cash games, GPPs, or basically any format? The cream of the crop– and the price is still lower than what it could be.
As long as they don’t jump out to a huge lead and spend the final quarter or so in prevent, the Rams make an excellent cash game play facing the struggling Bengals. The Patriots are still a much better play at the same price on FD, but the $500 price difference on DK makes them worth a look if you’re locked into all the other lineup components and the Pats just can’t fit
.
It’s approaching Halloween, and Jacksonville can be prettyscary – especially if you’re already seeing ghosts. The Jags at home present aperfect GPP opportunity in a week where the Pats and Rams will take a good chunkof the ownership. The Jets produce just 142.2 passing yards per game, and rank 32ndin total offense this season.
The Bears are fine for GPPs because they have massiveupside facing the bumbling Chargers, but I have an inkling that Austin Ekeleris the magic man for them this week. The Bears give up a lot of passes to RBsand sometimes can get caught in over-pursuit, where Ekeler can make his mark inspace. I’m not going to freak out if you roll them out in cash, but I’d preferthe Pats and Rams. The price is certainly fair on both sites.
The Bucs turn it over a lot and the Titans have a solidsecondary. I could see 3 INTs and a pick six for this defense, and that’s the kindof upside we need to win GPPs. Just play these guys at this affordable price.
The49ers are loaded with talent and have played extremely well. Facing thePanthers and the versatility of fantasy stud Christian McCaffrey is a toughtask, but you can’t argue the 49ers defense hasn’t delivered this season. They’rea bit expensive, but fine for GPPs.
The Bills defense shouldn’t have much trouble containing aPhilly offense that’s missing a spark. The offensive line is dealing withinjuries and Carson Wentz looks off this year. If the Bills can pressure him,they might be looking at some big plays and enough sacks to keep them relevant inthe GPP discussion.
The Seahawks are a prime punt on DK at $2,800. They aren’t thedefensive juggernaut of the past, but even they can make some stuff happenagainst the Falcons, who have played sloppy football this season and may be missingMatt Ryan. If they have both Ziggy Ansah and Bradley McDougald for Sunday, I’dbe more interested in taking the chance in GPPs where they should be prettylow-owned on FD at the high price.
The Chargers are dirt cheap and facing a team thatstruggles to score. If they can get Melvin Ingram back this week, they are aneven better play. I keep coming back to Mitchell Trubisky, though. The dude isnot a great QB, and the Chargers have Joey Bosa to wreak havoc him and the underachievingbackfield.
The Bucs were second-to-last in turnover differential last season and they turned it over a lot last week (seven times!). But this is about defense, and the Bucs could have some under-the-radar potential in Week 8 due to the Titans’ inability to pass protect. They are risky, and the Titans have played better – but Ryan Tannehill is still Ryan Tannehill, so there’s upside here.
Evan Engram, Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay. Do not let the red crosses keep you from choosing these high-volume pass catchers from the Giants and the top WR on the Lions. They will see upwards of 30 targets between them in this game, so reaching 17 catches seems like its very doable.
In the Week Seven Injury Breakdown, I’ll discuss a few players who are game time decisions or playing through designations as well as a few who are returning following a layoff from injury. As always, my aim is to provide more context from a medical perspective. Make sure to bookmark my user profile as I am constantly updating these injury articles with analysis as news rolls in.
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Saquon Barkley
I won’t bury the lead and will start with Barkley as he is scheduled to make his return following a high ankle sprain. Although I am concerned for Barkley’s long term health, his ankle should be good to go this week. I have no issues paying up for him against the Arizona Cardinals 25th ranked rushing DVOA (Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average) according to Football Outsiders.
Evan Engram
Barkley’s teammate, Engram, is scheduled to return from an MCL sprain. He’s going to be the chalk this week, so if you need an excuse to pivot consider that he has a history of these specific sprains and it would not be a complete shock if he re-aggravates the injury this week. I am not saying fade Engram altogether, but I am saying that his knee has proven to be structurally unstable in the past.
Devin Singletary
Singletary will finally make his return after missing the previous three games of the season. From an injury perspective, he’s had plenty of time to recover from a hamstring strain. I’m mentioning him here because I have gotten some questions about him.
John Brown
“Smoky” gave us a scare this week when he surprisingly popped up on the injury report with a groin strain. Although he’s no longer on the report and practiced in full on Friday, this is worth mentioning because he carries the sickle cell trait. This trait slows tissue healing times and complicates recovery. This is enough information for me to avoid him in cash games this week.
David Johnson
D.J. is once again a game-time decision as this is becoming a pattern. This week his designation is due to an ankle injury that limited him in practice all week. To make matters worse, Kliff Kingsbury told the media that if the Cardinals would have played on Friday, Johnson would not have been ready to go. Johnson is no more than a contrarian play in tournaments this week if he’s active, as the Cardinals’ injuries have proven difficult to peg. At this point, Johnson could have a high ankle sprain or a lateral ankle sprain, but there’s no way to be certain. Again, if D.J. is active on Sunday, I wouldn’t blame you for sprinkling him into a few tournaments as the Giants are in the bottom 5 in passing DVOA, where Johnson has made his money this year. But he would not be a high percentage play from an injury perspective.
Christian Kirk
Kirk suffered a high ankle sprain in Week Four, so I would not expect him to be active until Week Eight at the earliest despite his game-time decision status. On the off chance he is active, I’m not confident in using him until I see him play a full game and remain healthy.
Todd Gurley
Next on the Week Seven Injury Breakdown is a player who I believe we’ll begin seeing more and more often in my reports as the season goes on. The bottom line with Gurley at this point is that he’s not the player he was last season due to his knee condition. Despite the Rams reporting a “contusion” kept him out of Week Six, it’s within the realm of possibilities that it was actually his arthritis flaring up or a combination of both. As such, it would not be surprising if Gurley once again re-aggravates his knee, leaving Darrell Henderson as the top dog in a game with a ridiculous 54 over/under. Darrell Henderson will likely occupy the Malcolm Brown (OUT) role and could serve as a serious salary saver.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
MVS practiced in a limited fashion on Friday and is listed on the injury report with both knee and ankle injuries. He also admitted that he finished the game on Monday night “on adrenaline” which is not a good sign. Even if MVS is active on Sunday (he’s currently questionable) there’s no way I trust him in cash and would even be hesitant to use him in tournaments despite the volume. Why? Because this is a classic situation in which a starter might play through serious injury due to the state of his team’s overall health. His price tag is just too high for me at this point.
Amari Cooper
I’m surprised Cooper is expected to play considering that on Thursday he “plateaued” in his recovery according to reports. Essentially, a contusion is a bruise of deep tissues. For context, when you or I gracefully ram into a door frame and bruise our arm, that’s only affecting our thickest layer of skin. Now, imagine that same bruise penetrating to the muscle. That’s what Cooper is currently dealing with, which makes me nervous to use him this week. Another aspect to consider is the fact that this is a divisional game that the Cowboys would love to win and take control of the NFC Least East. Additionally, there’s always the possibility that Cooper is activated primarily as a decoy a la Julian Edelman in Week Four following a rib injury. The counter argument here is that all Cooper needs against this awful Eagles secondary is one big play. Even then, I don’t trust him any further than a junior high quarterback could throw a football against the Eagles secondary. Well, that may not be the best analogy.
Josh Gordon
Flash did not practice this week and I’m skeptical he plays on Sunday.
Thank you for reading the Week Seven Injury Breakdown. Make sure to check back with me on Sunday morning for the Final Injury Report. Good luck this week!
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