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Evan Engram

Week 12 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Giants at Bucs

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 12 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 12 NFL DFS Chalk: Tom Brady (FD $17,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Daniel Jones (FD $15,000, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #1: Mike Evans (FD $13,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #2: Leonard Fournette (FD $11,500, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: Saquon Barkley (FD $12,000, DK $11,700)

Contrarian #3: Rob Gronkowski (FD $10,000, DK $9,300)

Tom Brady should end up being the chalk tonight, as he’s adept at spreading the ball around to his receivers. There’s no Antonio Brown again this week but the absence of safety Logan Ryan for the Giants could mean a massive bounce-back game from the GOAT, who seemed more than annoyed after last week’s loss to another NFC East opponent, the Washington Football Team.

Giants notes: Sterling Shepard will miss another game, which means an upgrade for rookie WR Kadarius Toney and the explosive Kenny Golladay, who only has one big game this season (Week 4 vs. NO: 6-116-0). Darius Slayton will also be in play for the Giants, but the biggest news is the likely return of Saquon Barkley, who is listed as questionable but is expected to see his first game action since Week 5. While the Giants may want to bring along Barkley’ slowly, he may be in line for a huge workload with Devontae Booker also questionable and seemingly at greater risk of missing the contest. Evan Engram may not be busy, but he’s relevant for his use in the red zone, where he’s scored in consecutive weeks and seeing a few targets per game. But QB Daniel Jones, Barkley and Golladay stand out as the primary targets in this showdown. There’s also the possibility that Elijah Penny sees actin if Booker is inactive and Barkley has an in-game setback.

Bucs notes: The usual suspects are in play for the Bucs, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and even Rob Gronkowski, who’s listed as questionable with a back injury that’s kept him out Since Week 3, but got in full practices on Thursday and Friday before taking a rest day on Saturday. Leonard Fournette remains the only safe RB option, since both Ronald Jones (one snap last week vs. Washington) and Giovani Bernard don’t real have meaty enough roles to consider in anything but large-field GPP builds that count on fluky narratives and injuries. I’d much rather look to a guy like Tyler Johnson (five targets last week), even though he’s likely to assume a smaller snap count and looks with Gronk back in the mix.

Week 12 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Feature many shares of the Giants DST, who will have its hands full with this Bucs offense.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about Gronk, who could have a monster day against this Giants team.

Now that we’ve established some Week 12 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Tom Brady
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
Daniel Jones
Saquon Barkley
Rob Gronkowski
Leonard Fournette
Kenny Golladay
Kadarius Toney
Bucs DST
Evan Engram
Ryan Succop
Darius Slayton
Graham Gano
Giants DST
Tyler Johnson
Kyle Rudolph
Giovani Bernard
Devontae Booker (if he plays)
Ronald Jones
Elijah Penny (if Booker sits)
Cameron Brate
Kaden Smith
Scotty Miller (IR, could be activated)
Collin Johnson

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Premium

Week 8 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Giants at Chiefs

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 8 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 6 NFL DFS Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (FD $17,000, DK $18,000)

Pivot: Daniel Jones (FD $15,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #1: Tyreek Hill (FD $14,000, DK $16,000)

Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce (FD $13,500, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #3: Sterling Shepard (FD $11,000, DK $10,500)

While Patrick Mahomes has struggled in recent weeks and looks a far cry from his normal dominant self, he’s the chalk at captain in this week’s showdown and should have little trouble racking up big numbers in this favorable matchup. If the Chiefs establish some sort of effective ground game or just jump out to a big early lead, there may be some leverage in using Daniel Jones at captain and flanking him with some of the Giants pass receivers, including two guys who are both questionable heading into the Monday night battle: Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney. Toney is the real wild card this week, as he can be used in myriad ways and the “Q” tag will keep most of the masses off of him in their initial builds.

Chiefs notes: The usual suspects are in play for Kansas City, including Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, both of whom can you can fit in builds with Mahomes if you adopt the narrative that the ancillary Giants pass receivers are the ones who end up making the most impact. This is a “get right” spot for the Chiefs and I doubt they’ll have little trouble effectively targeting their big guns against a middle-of-the-road NFL defense like this Giants unit. The game script certainly favors more Darrel Williams this week, so picking one of Kelce or Hill and stacking with Mahomes and the Chiefs RB makes a lot of sense. I really think this is another big Tyreek game, so he’s going to be my main focus outside of Mahomes.

Giants notes: Shepard looks like a go, and while I do love me some Darius Slayton, if Shepard plays he’s probably the safer option. Slayton makes for a fine plug-n-play if Toney ends up sitting this out, but the Giants have been finding ways of getting the electric rookie RW the ball, even if it means sacrificing some of the targets that go to TE Evan Engram, who’s also in play tonight. With Saquon Barkley still out, Devontae Booker remains the got-to RB in the Giants backfield and should see plenty of touches, but his upside is a bit capped unless the Giants hang can early and often. Dante Pettis and John Ross could see a big play here or there, but the return of Shepard dings their value a bit.

Week 8 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Feature many shares of the Giants DST, who will have its hands full with this Chiefs offense.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about the fringe Giants WRs, especially if one or more of Shepard or Toney sits.

Now that we’ve established some Week 8 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Patrick Mahomes
Tyreek Hill
Daniel Jones
Travis Kelce
Sterling Shepard
Darrel Williams
Kadarius Toney (GTD)
Devontae Booker
Chiefs DST
Darius Slayton
Mecole Hardman
Evan Engram
Dante Pettis
Jerick McKinnon
Harrison Butker
Graham Gano
Byron Pringle
Kyle Rudolph
John Ross
DeMarcus Robinson

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 8 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Bucs at Giants

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 8 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $18,000, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Ronald Jones (DK $13,200, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #1: Daniel Jones (DK $13,800, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Darius Slayton (DK $10,500, FD $12,000)

Once again, the chalk – and likely a very heavy chalk – will be Tom Brady, who seems to be making a fine second home for himself among the myriad weapons in Tampa Bay. As much as the philosophies of HCs Bill Belichick and Bruce Arians may differ, he’s finding success with a few of the same ingredients: a fluid but talented group of receivers and backs, a defense that’s providing him with excellent opportunities and the luxury of patience, and an emphasis on protecting the ball and taking what the opposing team gives you. The best way to tackle this showdown may be to find our differentiation in the flex spots rather than get crazy contrarian at captain.

One of the weapons available to Brady this season will be Antonio Brown, but he’s not eligible to play until Week 9. With Chris Godwin (broken finger) out this week, we’re left with the uber-talented Mike Evans, TE Rob Gronkowski and Scotty Miller (hip, groin) as Brady’s main receiving weapons.

But just like in Week 5, my favorite pivot is probably Ronald Jones – who’s a much less risky play these days given how integral he is to the early down running game. In a matchup against the Giants that may get out of hand quickly, he’s the best bet to salt away the game with chunky gains and pile up the yardage.

If the Giants can keep things close, we could see some impactful plays from Leonard Fournette, who Arians recently labeled his “nickel” running back after he led the Bucs backfield with 40 snaps in Week 7 against the Raiders. We could certainly consider using Fournette as a pivot from Jones – or even alongside RJ2 in a few large-field GPPs.

For the Gaints, I’m narrowing my focus to Daniel Jones, WRs Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, TE Evan Engram and a smattering of RBs Wayne Gallman and Dion Lewis. Given the effectiveness of the Bucs defense this season (and the viability of the Bucs DST as an option on DraftKings this week) I can’t imagine playing more than two Giants in many of these contests,

Golden Tate isn’t getting enough targets for him to be an essential part of my builds, but he’s certainly an option if you’re making hundreds of lineups.

Week 8 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Play four Giants and just two Bucs. The spread here heavily favors the Bucs and they should be doing most of the scoring tonight.

DO: Consider Leonard Fournette – who’s been seeing more action and has supplanted LeSean McCoy as the go-to passing game RB – and fringe options like rookie WR Tyler Johnson and TE Cameron Brate, even with Gronk on a tear lately.

DON’T: Get too cute and make many lineups without Tom Brady. You don’t have to use him up top, but i’’s hard to imagine a scenario where Brady doesn’t get 20+ fantasy points in this smash spot.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Tom Brady
Ronald Jones
Mike Evans
Daniel Jones
Darius Slayton
Rob Gronkowski
Scotty Miller
Evan Engram
Leonard Fournette
Sterling Shepard
Tyler Johnson
Wayne Gallman
Bucs DST
Justin Watson
Cameron Brate
Dion Lewis
Ryan Succop
Golden Tate
Graham Gano
Giants DST

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 7 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Giants at Eagles

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the first Week 7 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Let’s get to the game!

Week 7 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Carson Wentz (DK $16,200, FD $15,500)

Pivot: Daniel Jones (DK $15,600, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Darius Slayton (DK $13,800, FD $12,500)

Contrarian #2: DeSean Jackson (DK $8,700, FD $8,000)

While both the Giants and Eagles defenses have not been the teams’ main issues this season, it’s hard not to like both Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones in this showdown, and there are probably a few ways to fit both of them into your lineups – especially if we use one of the defenses in the hopes of a pick six. With all the injuries facing the Eagles, it’s not hard to see a low-salary player for them emerging with a viable fantasy performance and being worth the juice of using in the Captain spot on DraftKings.

On FanDuel, it’s going to be very hard to get away from Boston Scott at the still-depressed price of just $6,500 – although using him at CPT may not be advisable. Scott and Corey Clement are the Philly backs who’ll get the touches this week, with Scott in the starting role and Clement likely handling goal line work and about 8-10 touches. Both are capable of monster days if they get the proverbial “hot hand.”

DeSean Jackson is expected to make his return for the Eagles this week and could be an interesting CPT on DK, where he’s sub-$9K. Jackson headlines a group of capable receivers that has seen the emergence of Travis Fulgham in recent weeks. Fading the popular Fulgham might be one way to get some leverage on the field, especially since we don’t have any idea how much he’ll contribute with D-Jax back in the fold.

The Giants will rely on a slightly hobbled Darius Slayton, TE Evan Engram (great bounce-back candidate this week) and a relatively inexpensive Devonta Freeman (handling most of the touches at RB) to move the ball on offense, with Golden Tate checking in as a solid low-price option – especially if Slayton is rendered less effective because of the lingering foot injury. While Slayton doesn’t have an injury designation ahead of this matchup and has more multi-TD upside than probably any other non-QB on TNF, he’s still a risk. There’s even talk of activating Sterling Shepard (toe, just back from IR) before this game, but he’s still a GTD – so stay tuned.

Week 7 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to play the Giants defense, especially since they have some playmakers, Wentz has been erratic, and the Eagles offense is pretty banged up.

DO: Check the injury report and chatter before lock to determine who’s healthy and who’s not. Football is one sport where players below 100 percent can be active and used as decoys.

DON’T: Forget about Eagles TE Richard Rodgers. He’s cheap and will be the starter with both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert out.

Carson Wentz
Daniel Jones
Darius Slayton
Boston Scott
DeSean Jackson
Evan Engram
Devonta Freeman
Travis Fulgham
Golden Tate
Giants DST
Eagles DST
Richard Rodgers
Corey Clement
Graham Gano
Greg Ward
Jake Elliott
Dion Lewis
Sterling Shepard (GTD)
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Jason Croom

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Hopefully everyone enjoyed ANOTHER huge week of cashing in Week 2 NFL DFS Cash Games! It’s officially NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 3, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries. There are a ton of great value plays at WR/RB, but QB and TE are getting slim. There will not be a lot of different optimal builds this weekend.
Miles Sanders chalk week – Play him in cash games!
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,300 DK / $8,700 FD) – Another week of backing Russell Wilson. The dude is on another planet right now and the model loves him (as everyone’s does this week). Wilson has a whole boatload of weapons at his disposal and faces up against a bottom-half pass defense (in terms of DVOA) with Dallas. Not to mention, the total in this game is at 56, lol.
AETY Projection: 24.74 points
Kyler Murray ($6,800 DK / $8,400 FD) – Not a whole lot to say about Kyler Murray besides “I told you so”. Every SiriusXM show we did this summer I mentioned this will be the first year I “reach” on a QB in the 5th or 6th round for Kyler Murray. He’s damn near a running back and goes up against the 24th ranked pass defense DVOA in Detroit. There aren’t many safer plays than Murray this week.
AETY Projection: 25.35 points
Cam Newton ($6,700 DK / $7,700 FD) – The AETY Model LOVES Cam Newton this weekend against the Las Vegas Raiders who apparently the public thinks are a good team after beating New Orleans on Monday Night. Cam is going to have a field day with this defense. My only concerns are the ability of a banged-up Raiders offense being able to keep the pace moving and forcing Newton to continue moving the football.
AETY Projections: 24.42 points
Mitch Trubisky ($5,700 DK / $7,500 FD) – We say it week in, week out… the Atlanta Falcons are the nuts matchup for opposing QBs coming in at 28th in pass defense DVOA. If you need salary relief, Trubisky is your guy this week despite how ugly the points may look.
AETY Projections: 19.07

Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz

Running Backs

Miles Sanders ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD) – It’s Sanders’ Week, plain and simple. He’s incredibly low priced for the floor/upside and likely to be rostered by over 60% of cash game players this week. Cincinnati’s run defense ranks 25th in DVOA and is going to have a hard time keeping up with a 3-down back like Sanders at home. Use him.
AETY Projection: 20.42 DK / 18.92 FD
Dalvin Cook ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – With Barkley and McCaffrey out, this slate is missing its true #1 running back. The AETY Model really likes Dalvin Cook this week and for good reason: you can run all over the Titans who rank 22nd in run defense DVOA. Pair that with a Gary Kubiak outside-zone running scheme and you’re in for a big day.
AETY Projection: 19.99 DK / 18.37 FD
Kenyan Drake ($6,000 DK / $6,500 FD) – He’s simply too cheap and also a guy that’s going to be over 40% in cash game ownership. We love picking on Detroit’s run defense (insert all of your screenshots of rostering Aaron Jones last weekend) and can certainly go back to the well in NFL DFS Cash Games this week. I hate using two players on the same team in cash (especially QB/RB), but this week, it’s OKAY if you do it with Kyler and Drake. I still don’t prefer it.
AETY Projection: 18.56 DK / 16.64 FD
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – He’s probably too expensive for my builds this week and I’d truthfully rather roster a Dallas wide-receiver, but it’s hard to not love Elliott every week. Seattle’s run defense is not nearly as bad as the public thinks. I’m not going to play him in cash, but he’s always cash viable with that volume.
AETY Projection: 22.01 DK / 20.32 FD
Jonathan Taylor ($7,000 DK / $6,700 FD) – Can’t believe DraftKings priced him up so high, but on FanDuel, you probably need to lock him in as an 11-point home-favorite against a minor-league Jets’ team.
AETY Projection: 19.07 DK / 17.69 FD
The Value Backs…

Mike Davis ($5,100 DK / $6,000 FD)
Joshua Kelley ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD)
Jerick McKinnon ($4,900 DK / $5,700 FD)
Devin Singletary ($4,900 / $5,900 FD) – UPDATE: I’m likely locking in Singletary on DraftKings cash games.
Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,000 DK / $5,200 FD)

Honestly, just pick whichever one you prefer because you’re likely to need one for salary relief. If your build doesn’t require that, you’re in good shape.

– Mike Davis – love the PPR floor here and not much competition behind him.
– Joshua Kelley – more viable on FanDuel, but certainly a smash spot against Carolina’s poor excuse of a run defense (dead last in DVOA and bleeding touchdowns to opposing backs.
– Jeff Wilson Jr. / Jerick McKinnon – I’m not buying into McKinnon getting a large workload. Wilson is going to be the lead runner here while McKinnon plays a stronger role in the passing game. If you think the Giants can push the pace, McKinnon is your guy. If you think the Giants lay an egg, go with Wilson.
– Devin Singletary – Meh. There’s no one else there, I guess. Solid for PPR.

Honorable Mention: James Conner, Austin Ekeler, David Montgomery

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD) – The dude’s target share is through the roof and there’s no Christian Kirk this week. Detroit’s pass defense is very bad, but they are likely to bring some bracket coverage towards Hopkins. I don’t think it matters, he’s the WR1 on this slate.
AETY Projection: 21.14 DK / 17.42 FD
Chris Godwin ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD) – For the same reason we loved JuJu Smith-Schuster against the rookie cornerback in Denver is why we love Godwin this week. Denver’s run defense is actually quite solid and Tampa Bay knows that. They’ll get their points through the air and a lot of that via Chris Godwin. He’s 100% healthy and ready to rock.
AETY Projection: 15.26 DK / 12.21 FD
DK Metcalf ($6,500 DK & FD) / Tyler Lockett ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD) – They are both in absolute smash spots against this awful Dallas secondary in the highest game total on the slate. On FanDuel, I’ll roll with Metcalf. On DraftKings, I’ll roll with Lockett. You’re likely going to need one of these guys in your cash game lineup.
Metcalf AETY Projection: 17.33 DK / 14.69 FD
Lockett AETY Projection: 18.53 DK / 15.21 FD
Julian Edelman ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD) – Model loves Cam. Model loves Edelman. Coming off of the most receiving yards in a single game (for his career), I’m loving this matchup against inside cornerback, Lamarcus Joyner. If I can pick on Joyner, I’ll always do so. James White being out for this game gives Edelman even more of a slight bump than just a plus-matchup.
AETY Projection: 17.94 DK / 14.49 FD
Allen Robinson ($6,200 DK / $6,900 FD) – Every week we lock in a receiver against Atlanta’s secondary. This week is no different, play Robinson.
AETY Projection: 17.07 DK / 14.02 FD
Diontae Johnson ($5,400 DK / $6,300 FD) – When will they raise his price, lol? The dude is tied for third in the NFL in targets (granted, it’s only been two weeks), but this price is too low against a horrid Houston secondary. This game has sneaky shootout potential and Johnson should smash value.
AETY Projection: 14.41 DK / 11.73 FD
CeeDee Lamb ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD) – Getting cheap exposure to the Seahawks/Cowboys game is a must for me. Lamb is getting a high target share and should have a strong outing in a shootout against Ugo Amadi (who actually looked decent against the Patriots) and the rest of this Seahawks’ secondary.
AETY Projection: 11.73 DK / 9.68 FD

Honorable Mention: N’Keal Harry, Calvin Ridley, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Odell Beckham Jr., Keenan Allen, Adam Humphries

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith ($5,200 DK / $5,600 FD) – I hate rostering Smith in cash games, but it’s slim pickens at the tight-end position this week. Smith is by far their biggest threat in the red-zone with A.J. Brown out yet again.
AETY Projection: 11.01 DK / 9.30 FD
Evan Engram ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD) – Not going to lie, the AETY Model loves Evan Engram this weekend against a 200% depleted San Francisco defense and no Sterling Shepard. Just use him in NFL DFS Cash Games.
AETY Projection: 12.16 DK / 9.77 FD
Hunter Henry ($4,800 DK / $6,000 FD) – Herbert absolutely loved targeting Hunter Henry last weekend against Kansas City and I’ll be more than happy to invest in that chemistry again. I’m usually not a 100% believer in rookie QBs loving their tight-ends as a safety blanket, but Herbert refused to throw the the ball outside and that’s likely not going to change this weekend.

You all know how much Mike Williams I had last weekend 🙁
AETY Projection: 11.76 DK / 9.41 FD
The Punt Plays…

Logan Thomas ($3,700 DK / $4,900 FD)
Drew Sample ($3,500 DK / $4,800 FD)

I rank Thomas much higher due to the proven target share, but if you choose to go dumpster diving at tight-end on Sunday, Sample is probably as low as I’ll go. Let’s try to just stick with Thomas if we go that low in NFL DFS Cash Games.

Honorable Mention: Zach Ertz, Hayden Hurst, Jack Doyle

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Indianapolis Colts ($4,100 DK / $4,800 FD)
Cleveland Browns ($3,800 DK / $3,900 FD)
Los Angeles Chargers ($3,600 DK) *too expensive on FD
Los Angeles Rams ($3,000 DK / $4,100 FD)
Chicago Bears ($2,900 DK / $4,200 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup (DK)

QB: Cam Newton
RB: Miles Sanders
RB: Kenyan Drake
WR: Allen Robinson
WR: Tyler Lockett
WR: Chris Godwin
TE: Logan Thomas
FLEX: Josh Kelley
DST: Bears

Good luck to all!

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5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Injury Fades and Plays

Edwin Porras 5 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Wow. The days leading up to Week 14 kick off have been full of injury drama and news revelations. I’ll touch on the Dalvin Cook saga, Josh Jacobs’ shoulder, Evan Engram’s dance with the practice report (and DFS players’ hearts) and other players’ status in this DFS Injury Fades and Plays. Note that the following prices are from FanDuel.

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Dalvin Cook ($8,700)

There is a good amount of confusion surrounding Cook’s situation, and many DFS players aren’t sure how to view him. It is a bit ridiculous that Cook suffered an injury severe enough to rule him out on Monday night, but is no longer on the practice report. Not only that but when the cameras panned to him and the trainers, it was evident Cook was having an emotional response to the injury indicating that it was extremely painful for him. My brief twitter conversation with Dr. Jesse Morse is below:

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1203085288358268928?s=20

Situations like this are exactly why injury analysts are crucial. Below I’ll outline possible outcomes involving Cook and Alexander Mattison ($5,100).

Dalvin Cook starts, plays approximately half of the snaps (he averages just around 75% normally) and sees about half of his touches. Mattison sees the other half but takes over the goal line/red zone opportunities to protect Cook’s SC joint and has the bigger day.
Cook and Mattison split touches, snaps, and fantasy points rendering each other usable options, but no ceiling for either.
Cook is “dummy active” and sees well below half the touches, Mattison takes the bulk of the work and has a big day against the Lions’ lowly rush defense.

Ultimately, this situation makes Cook a fade in cash, but at $5,100 Mattison warrants consideration in cash simply because any way you slice it, he’ll more than likely see an increased workload.

Josh Jacobs ($7,400)

Jacobs is not a cash option this week, period. He came out and admitted he has a fractured shoulder, which can help to explain his lack of passing game involvement if this has been a season-long injury. To make matters worse in DFS, he did not practice this week until a very limited session on Friday. He’s also a bit pricey against the middle of the road Titans and if the Raiders continue to give up points by the dozen, Jacobs can easily be game-scripted out. The only player I’m considering in this game is Ryan Tannehill ($7,300).

Le’Veon Bell ($7,300)

Bell missed Thursday and Friday practice with an illness, which is enough for me to completely fade him from a health perspective. We’ve been down this road with Tyler Lockett in Week 13 who followed the same pattern and saw a season-low in targets and snap share. Bell, if active, could be dealing with residual fatigue and dehydration that will cap his touches and production. Instead, I’m pivoting to the Miami passing game that has been on fire lately and is bolstered by the fact that star safety Jamal Adams has already been ruled out with an ankle injury.

The rest of the players in the DFS Injury Fades and Plays are tournament plays and only cash considerations for those who abide by the risk-it-biscuit ideology.

Darwin Thompson ($5,200)

Thompson is not a viable cash option but has a chance to be a slate breaker in tournaments. With the loss of Darrel Williams to the IR and Damien Williams still recovering from a ribs injury, Thompson vaults into the (basically) co-starter position alongside LeSean McCoy ($6,100). Given that the Chiefs signed perennial just-a-guy Spencer Ware, I expect Thompson to see enough work to warrant free square status this week against the Patriots.

David Njoku ($4,900)

Njoku should be completely healthy from a wrist fracture he suffered in Week Two and is a middle of the road option against the lowly Bengals defense this week. From a health perspective, he should be more than ready to go and given the injury should not have impacted his ability to aerobic conditioning, he could be another slate breaker at low ownership. The concern I have with Njoku is his quarterback, who has been a disappointment this year, to say the least. From a cash perspective, Njoku is still on my wait-and-see list, but I’ll be using him in tournaments this week given his opponent, projected ownership and low price tag.

Evan Engram

Engram (and Rhett Ellison) has officially been ruled out. Kaden Smith will be a chalky option against the Eagles in the showdown slates, but he’s a decent option considering the single-game slates are really more about ownership and being contrarian in different spots. Use Smith as a free square to differentiate yourself elsewhere. For example, Saquon Barkley could be low owned due to his recent lack of production. Stacking him with the ghost of the ghost of check down Eli Manning.

Thank you for reading my DFS Injury Fades and Plays for Week 14. If you have any questions don’t hesitate to find on Twitter or comment them down below. Good luck!

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

Photo courtesy of Ser Amantio di Nicola.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

Week 14 is here and the window to hit big in NFL DFS is closing soon. Read my injury analysis of Dalvin Cook and the fades/plays across the league to help optimize your lineups. Let’s get to it. Note that all of the following prices are from FanDuel.

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Josh Jacobs ($7,400)

Jacobs came out this week and said that he has a “fractured shoulder” and he “just plays through it” which I find extremely odd. The assumption here is that if the shoulder is truly fractured, the medical staff doesn’t believe it is bad enough to shut him down. The most commonly fractured parts of the shoulder are the upper arm and the shoulder blade, but really there’s no way to know exactly what the injury is. What we do know is that Jacobs has seen a significant decline in targets in neutral and negative game scripts going from 5 to 3 to 1, and somehow to 0 (that’s zero) targets in a 40-9 loss to the Chiefs in Week 14. This decline in targets correlates perfectly with a shoulder injury as any type of scapulothoracic and glenohumeral elevation (i.e. raising arms to catch a ball)

With that said, Jacobs is a fade in cash games for me and I’m not confident using him in tournaments either until further notice. Unfortunately, neither Jalen Richard or Deandre Washington are usable in either formats.

Greg Olsen ($4,900)

Olsen is dealing with his third documented concussion which means he’s entered the point of no return in terms of predicting a quick return to play. It also doesn’t help that he’s nearing age 35 and the brain’s plasticity naturally declines with age. All of this means that Olsen is in legitimate jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game against the Falcons. He didn’t practice on Wednesday, and if he’s inactive on Sunday, Ian Thomas ($4,000) becomes an enticingly cheap option against the Falcons who’s defense gives up passing yards like it’s their job. Consider Thomas a cash game play in order to jam in your studs on this slate.

Update: Olsen did not practice Thursday again. He’ll have to clear protocol before early Sunday morning to play.

Taylor Gabriel ($8,00)

Gabriel remains in the concussion protocol following his second of the season and is in jeopardy to miss Week 14. In his absence Anthony Miller ($10,500) has come into his own as a second year starter and makes for an excellent tournament play in a game that the Bears should be down. Consider Miller a play in cash games as well in the showdown slate.

Update: Gabriel has officially been ruled out.

Dalvin Cook ($8,700)

If I title my DFS article “Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays” I should probably give a thorough analysis on Dalvin Cook, so here it goes. Tuesday Mike Zimmer said Cook is “fine” and didn’t offer many details about the injury. Cook offered us more insight and said his injury is “weird” but that he’ll be good to go for Week 14. He also added that the defender who caused the fumble “hit him good” in the spot that has been bothering him since the Vikings played the Broncos. Although the video of Cook fumbling in the third quarter is not great, the fact that the injury is labeled by the team as “chest” coupled with the video itself, leads me to believe that Dalvin Cook is dealing with a sternoclavicular (SC) joint injury.

Now, these injuries can be very painful but much like the AC joint, the potential for dislocation is the primary concern. If Cook takes a hit in the right spot, the clavicle can be knocked out of socket causing a whole host of issues that would land him on the IR.

With all that said, Cook has a decent chance to play this week depending on his practice activity, so be sure to check back in with me during the week. This injury makes Cook a fade in cash which is unfortunate considering this salivating matchup with Detroit who is awful against the run. The risk of dislocation and/or re-injury to the SC joint is too great for me personally trust him. Even if Cook is active, there is a chance that Alexander Mattison’s ($5,100) role is expanded to protect Cook in what should be an easy win for the Vikings. Obviously Mattison is the play here in tournaments, but consider pivoting to the Vikings defense ($4,800) in cash who should bully rookie David Blough now that he’s put some game on film.

Adam Thielen ($7,300)

It is obvious at this point that Thielen’s hamstring injury was made much worse by him trying to come back too early in Week Nine. He did not practice on Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday will be much more telling. Regardless, I can’t see Thielen playing this week, but even if he does he’s a fade in all formats due to the injury’s history. This vaults Stefon Diggs ($8,000) into consideration for cash games and tournaments as his floor and ceiling have been solid with Thielen out.

Update: Thielen did not practice again on Thursday and will need to at least participate in Friday’s practice to have a shot to play. I’m not confident in this happening.

Julio Jones ($7,800)

Jones is recovering from (what I believed to be) an AC sprain that he suffered in Week 12. The consensus from the reports are that Julio would have given it a go on Thanksgiving if not for the quick Thursday turnaround. Although Jones has not provided many ceiling games this season, I like him as a contrarian play in cash games this week against an atrocious Carolina defense that just fired their defensive minded coach Ron Rivera.

Austin Hooper ($6,600)

Hooper is recovering from an MCL sprain that he suffered about a month ago. The injury was a grade II sprain and has kept him out of practice until Monday this week. He’s now on track to play on Sunday barring any setbacks, but he’s on my “prove it” list before I play him in cash games. If Hooper still cannot go on Sunday, consider Russell Gage ($5,700) in tournaments who has done just fine filling in for the injured pass catchers of the Falcons. Atlanta plays Carolina in Week 14, a franchise who just fired their head coach and is in disarray. This could be a big game for the Atlanta offense.

Tyler Lockett

Hear me out. I get it, Lockett has only one catch over two games, but we have to consider the circumstances. In Week Ten, Lockett suffered a significant contusion to his lower leg that caused a two night hospital stay. That contusion lingered through the bye and showed in Week 12 as he tied a season low 19 routes run, a number that has dipped that low only one other time all season. Then in Week 13, Lockett was dealing with the flu but still played against the Vikings. In that MNF game, Locket played a season low 87% of snaps and saw five fewer targets than his season average. These numbers come against a struggling Minnesota secondary that ranks 14th in pass DVOA. I get into the numbers in my tweet thread below:

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1202306747920273409?s=20

After the win on Monday night, Lockett was quoted as saying “I’ve been sick all week. I just want to go to bed.” What I’m saying here is that this is the window to play Tyler Lockett at low ownership in cash against a Rams secondary that is ranked 12th in pass DVOA.

Update: After not practicing on Thursday or Friday leading up to Week 13, Lockett is not even listed on the practice report for Week 14. As the kids say it might once again be Tyler Lockett SZN.

Evan Engram

Despite the fact that he hasn’t practiced since Week Nine, Engram has told reporters he’s optimistic about his return in Week 14. I’m not sold on this optimism as his foot injury has lingered as serious foot/ankle injuries tend to do. If Engram is active I’m fading him in cash. If he’s inactive yet again, fire up either Rhett Ellison (concussion) or Kaden Smith in tournaments against this Eagles defense who just got torched by the fightin’ Ryan Fitzpatricks.

Thank you for reading Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays. Hopefully I was able to provide some insight on this week’s injuries and provide potential fades/plays. Good luck in DFS this week!

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Thanksgiving Injury Fades/Plays

Edwin Porras 5 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Thanksgiving is a beautiful holiday that brings together everything we love: family, good food, and a mini slate of DFS. This week will be different as I’ll be putting out two separate fade/play injury articles. Because of the short week, the Thanksgiving Injury Fades/Plays article is at a disadvantage, but I’ll do my best to project every significant injury that could affect lineups this week. So let’s dive in. Keep in mind that all of the following prices are from DraftKings.

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Jeff Driskel ($5,500)

Normally I wouldn’t mention a player like Jeff Driskel in the Thanksgiving Fades/Plays article but he is the Lions starter, it’s a shortened slate, and he’s dealing with a hamstring strain. Matt Patricia doesn’t say a whole lot, but even he admitted on Tuesday that Driskel’s hamstring is “pretty sore” which led to- checks to google again- David Blough taking first-team reps. Driskel is at serious risk for missing Thursday’s game but even if he’s active his rushing ability will likely be capped. Ultimately this means that at just $2,500 the Bears defense is an absolute steal regardless of Driskel’s game status.

Update: David Blough will officially start for the Lions tomorrow.

Taylor Gabriel ($4,300)

Gabriel is out with this third documented concussion, so first and foremost I hope he’s doing well as a human. His absence will open up opportunities for Anthony Miller ($3,900) who over the last two weeks has seen 20 targets and totaled 12 receptions. Miller should garner serious consideration in tournaments on Turkey Day.

Update: Gabriel has officially been ruled out. Smash the Bears DST in all formats.

Julio Jones (7,300)

Jones injured his shoulder at some point in the first half on Sunday, but I’m having a difficult time identifying when and exactly what happened. Video analysis can usually give me more context, but I can’t find anything definitive. The best I can come up with is an AC injury (think James Conner) late in the second quarter when he was taken down over the middle of the field. The hope is that since he came back to play later in the game that the injury is not serious despite missing two practices this week.

Jones hasn’t put up great numbers this year, but if he’s active it’s difficult to envision not sprinkling him into a few lineups based on his history of playing through injuries. An added layer to this story is that shut down corner Marshon Lattimore, who held Jones to three catches for 79 yards in Week Ten, returned to practice from his own injury last Friday. Lattimore has continued practicing in a limited fashion this week and has a chance to play. So in conclusion, this is where I stand on Jones:

If Jones and Lattimore are both active, Jones is still a cash play at his current price despite the injury.
With Jones active and Lattimore inactive, feel free to sprinkle Julio into tournaments and cash.
In the occurrence that Jones is inactive and Lattimore is active, pivot to Russell Gage ($4,500) in tournaments as Lattimore is likely to give Calvin Ridley his attention.
If both Jones and Lattimore are inactive, Calvin Ridley is the play in cash at $6,600.

Due to the context of this slate, there is obviously little clarity as of now, so bookmark this article for updates as the next day and a half unfolds. Understand that because of the murkiness to Jones’ injury he’s a more volatile play than usual, but still usable.

Update: Julio Jones is officially considered questionable for Thursday night. He certainly does not need to practice to play, but there is some cause for concern.

Devonta Freeman ($5,100)

Freeman is making his return from what appears to be grade I turf toe, which has a reputation of lingering. Despite the fact that Freeman is the only show in town at running back for the Falcons, it’s difficult to suggest him in cash. The primary reason for the lack of confidence is that the Saints are ranked 8th in rushing DVOA but are middle of the pack against the pass. In a game that the Saints are favored by more than a touchdown, Freeman could see a few targets, but considering his injury I’m only trusting him in tournaments. To Freeman’s credit, he has stayed relatively healthy this season missing only two games with a minor injury. After not having played a full season since 2016 and missed almost the entire 2018 campaign, it seems Freeman’s offseason work is benefiting him.

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1164266846671036417?s=20

Austin Hooper ($5,900)

Hooper is highly unlikely to return this week, so look at the previously mentioned receivers to fill the void.

Update: Hooper has officially been ruled out.

Thank you for reading the Thanksgiving Injury Fades/Plays article! Also, utilize my post-Thanksgiving Injury Fades/Plays piece scheduled for Saturday. I’ll discuss Adam Thielen, T.Y. Hilton, Damien Williams, Evan Engram, and several other injuries DFS players are itching to hear about. Until then, be sure to check back with me as updates for the Thanksgiving slate roll in.

Featured image courtesy of Georgia National Guard.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 8 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: Waller For the Win

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s Week 8 DFS of the NFL season, and I’ve got your Sunday main slate plays for Tight Ends and DSTs to win you some big green in cash and GPP!

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Week8 DFS Tight End Cash Game Plays

Week 8 DFS — Darren Waller, OAK at HOU

FD($6,800) DK ($5,900)

Houston doesn’t normally give up a ton of points to TEs, but Waller is no ordinary TE. And last week Eric Ebron had a nice game against them, so the matchup should be more favorable than the red numbers indicate. I’m going to have massive shares of Waller in cash and GPPs.

Week 8 DFS — Austin Hooper, ATL vs. SEA

FD($6,600) DK ($5,500)

Hooper should get a boatload of targets from whomever plays QB for the Falcons this week, and he’s been the best TE in football this season (by a small margin over Darren Waller). Roll with him confidently against a Seattle team that’s been “no great shakes” – as the old-timers said – against TEs. He’s safe for cash and fine for GPPs.

Week8 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Week 8 DFS — Evan Engram, NYG at DET

FD($6,300) DK ($5,300)

Engram missed a week with an MCL sprain, but he’s apparentlyshed the wrap that was on his left knee – and despite the fact that he didn’t domuch in Sunday’s 27-21 loss to the Cardinals, he’s in a great spot now that he’shealthy and facing a battered Lions defense that’s allowed some big games to tightends. He’s a great option for GPPs – we know his upside and the recency biaswill keep him from high ownership.

Week 8 DFS — George Kittle, SF vs. CAR

FD($6,900) DK ($6,500)

Kittle (groin) just got cleared to play in Sunday’s gameagainst the Panthers, so I’m a little worried about cash games but he’s atop target for GPPs. As long as Kittle suits up and there’s no talk of arestriction, we’re getting aboard.

Week 8 DFS — Zach Ertz, PHI at BUF

FD($6,300) DK ($5,100)

Ertz and the Eagles’ passing attack got stymied by the Cowboys,and the stud tight end ended up being a stinker. Worry not, Ertz fans, becausehe’s still the top dog TE in Philly, not Dallas Goedert, and the Eagles will bemaking use of him against a Buffalo team where they’ll have to throw underneathand trust their big targets in the flats.

Week 8 DFS — Hunter Henry, LAC at CHI

FD ($6,700) DK (4,900)

Henry’s 2019 season got offto a bad start, but since returning from injury he’s had two big games – one abona fide monster (8-100-2 vs. PIT). The Bears have actually been just okayagainst TEs this year, so Henry is still fully in play against a defense that’sranked No. 22 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Week8 DFS Tight End Punt Plays

Week 8 DFS — Eric Ebron, IND vs. DEN

FD ($5,400) DK ($3,400)

Ebron could see a larger chunk of targets if Jack Doyle sitson Sunday, and is coming off a big game where he caught four of five targetsfor 70 yards and a touchdown in a win over Houston. The TD was a nice one, too,as he got his feet in bounds on a short TD pass in the third that helped propelthem to victory. Denver is okay against TEs, but his upside shouldn’t be significantlylimited.

Week 8 DFS — T.J. Hockenson, DET vs. NYG

FD($5,300) DK ($3,500)

The rookie tight end hasbeen building more consistency in his game but had some mistakes last week againstthe Vikings. We’re hoping for a high-upside outlier (like Week 1) in a matchupagainst the Giants, who will have trouble containing this talented pass catcherand athlete.

Week 8 DFS — Cameron Brate, TB at TEN

FD($5,200) DK ($2,700)

Brate takes on some moretargets with O.J. Howard out Sunday, which propels him into GPP territory at apretty low price on DK. It’s a lot on FanDuel, but he’s still in play forlarge-field GPPs – he’s got two TDs in his last three games and Howard’stargets, while minimal, should be heading his way.

Additional Week 8 DFS GPPand punt options:

Gerald Everett, LAR vs. CIN(FD $6,100, DK $4,300)

Darren Fells, HOU vs. OAKIND (FD $5,100, DK $3,400)

Jordan Akins, HOU vs. OAK (FD$4,900), DK $2,800)

Ben Watson, NE vs. CLE (FD$4,900, DK $3,000)

Foster Moreau, OAK at HOU(FD $4,900, DK $2,700)

Week8 DFS DST Cash Game Plays

NewEngland Patriots (NE vs. CLE)

FD($5,000) DK ($4,300)

The Pats remain the best defense in football by a large marginand get a team that coughs it up quite a bit. Do we really need to tell you toplay this unit in cash games, GPPs, or basically any format? The cream of the crop– and the price is still lower than what it could be.

LosAngeles Rams (LAR vs. CIN)

FD($5,000) DK ($3,800)

As long as they don’t jump out to a huge lead and spend the final quarter or so in prevent, the Rams make an excellent cash game play facing the struggling Bengals. The Patriots are still a much better play at the same price on FD, but the $500 price difference on DK makes them worth a look if you’re locked into all the other lineup components and the Pats just can’t fit

Week8 DFS DST GPP Plays

JacksonvilleJaguars (JAC vs. NYJ)

FD($4,500) DK ($2,900)

It’s approaching Halloween, and Jacksonville can be prettyscary – especially if you’re already seeing ghosts. The Jags at home present aperfect GPP opportunity in a week where the Pats and Rams will take a good chunkof the ownership. The Jets produce just 142.2 passing yards per game, and rank 32ndin total offense this season.

ChicagoBears (CHI vs. LAC)

FD($4,500) DK ($3,600)

The Bears are fine for GPPs because they have massiveupside facing the bumbling Chargers, but I have an inkling that Austin Ekeleris the magic man for them this week. The Bears give up a lot of passes to RBsand sometimes can get caught in over-pursuit, where Ekeler can make his mark inspace. I’m not going to freak out if you roll them out in cash, but I’d preferthe Pats and Rams. The price is certainly fair on both sites.

TennesseeTitans (TEN vs. TB)

FD($4,600) DK ($3,200)

The Bucs turn it over a lot and the Titans have a solidsecondary. I could see 3 INTs and a pick six for this defense, and that’s the kindof upside we need to win GPPs. Just play these guys at this affordable price.

SanFrancisco 49ers (SF vs. CAR)

FD($4,800) DK ($3,700)

The49ers are loaded with talent and have played extremely well. Facing thePanthers and the versatility of fantasy stud Christian McCaffrey is a toughtask, but you can’t argue the 49ers defense hasn’t delivered this season. They’rea bit expensive, but fine for GPPs.

BuffaloBills (BUF vs. PHI)

FD($4,300) DK ($3,000)

The Bills defense shouldn’t have much trouble containing aPhilly offense that’s missing a spark. The offensive line is dealing withinjuries and Carson Wentz looks off this year. If the Bills can pressure him,they might be looking at some big plays and enough sacks to keep them relevant inthe GPP discussion.

Week8 DFS DST Value GPP and Punt Plays

SeattleSeahawks (SEA at ATL)

FD($4,900) DK ($2,800)

The Seahawks are a prime punt on DK at $2,800. They aren’t thedefensive juggernaut of the past, but even they can make some stuff happenagainst the Falcons, who have played sloppy football this season and may be missingMatt Ryan. If they have both Ziggy Ansah and Bradley McDougald for Sunday, I’dbe more interested in taking the chance in GPPs where they should be prettylow-owned on FD at the high price.

LosAngeles Chargers (LAC at CHI)

FD($4,100) DK ($2,300)

The Chargers are dirt cheap and facing a team thatstruggles to score. If they can get Melvin Ingram back this week, they are aneven better play. I keep coming back to Mitchell Trubisky, though. The dude isnot a great QB, and the Chargers have Joey Bosa to wreak havoc him and the underachievingbackfield.

TampaBay Buccaneers (TB at TEN)

FD($3,500) DK ($2,500)

The Bucs were second-to-last in turnover differential last season and they turned it over a lot last week (seven times!). But this is about defense, and the Bucs could have some under-the-radar potential in Week 8 due to the Titans’ inability to pass protect. They are risky, and the Titans have played better – but Ryan Tannehill is still Ryan Tannehill, so there’s upside here.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Week – Click Here to Play and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Pick the Players that will get the most Receptions

Goal: 16.50, Prize: 2x

Evan Engram, Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay. Do not let the red crosses keep you from choosing these high-volume pass catchers from the Giants and the top WR on the Lions. They will see upwards of 30 targets between them in this game, so reaching 17 catches seems like its very doable.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

DFS: Week Seven Injury Breakdown

5 years ago

written by

In the Week Seven Injury Breakdown, I’ll discuss a few players who are game time decisions or playing through designations as well as a few who are returning following a layoff from injury. As always, my aim is to provide more context from a medical perspective. Make sure to bookmark my user profile as I am constantly updating these injury articles with analysis as news rolls in.

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Saquon Barkley

I won’t bury the lead and will start with Barkley as he is scheduled to make his return following a high ankle sprain. Although I am concerned for Barkley’s long term health, his ankle should be good to go this week. I have no issues paying up for him against the Arizona Cardinals 25th ranked rushing DVOA (Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average) according to Football Outsiders.

Evan Engram

Barkley’s teammate, Engram, is scheduled to return from an MCL sprain. He’s going to be the chalk this week, so if you need an excuse to pivot consider that he has a history of these specific sprains and it would not be a complete shock if he re-aggravates the injury this week. I am not saying fade Engram altogether, but I am saying that his knee has proven to be structurally unstable in the past.

Devin Singletary

Singletary will finally make his return after missing the previous three games of the season. From an injury perspective, he’s had plenty of time to recover from a hamstring strain. I’m mentioning him here because I have gotten some questions about him.

John Brown

“Smoky” gave us a scare this week when he surprisingly popped up on the injury report with a groin strain. Although he’s no longer on the report and practiced in full on Friday, this is worth mentioning because he carries the sickle cell trait. This trait slows tissue healing times and complicates recovery. This is enough information for me to avoid him in cash games this week.

David Johnson

D.J. is once again a game-time decision as this is becoming a pattern. This week his designation is due to an ankle injury that limited him in practice all week. To make matters worse, Kliff Kingsbury told the media that if the Cardinals would have played on Friday, Johnson would not have been ready to go. Johnson is no more than a contrarian play in tournaments this week if he’s active, as the Cardinals’ injuries have proven difficult to peg. At this point, Johnson could have a high ankle sprain or a lateral ankle sprain, but there’s no way to be certain. Again, if D.J. is active on Sunday, I wouldn’t blame you for sprinkling him into a few tournaments as the Giants are in the bottom 5 in passing DVOA, where Johnson has made his money this year. But he would not be a high percentage play from an injury perspective.

Christian Kirk

Kirk suffered a high ankle sprain in Week Four, so I would not expect him to be active until Week Eight at the earliest despite his game-time decision status. On the off chance he is active, I’m not confident in using him until I see him play a full game and remain healthy.

Todd Gurley

Next on the Week Seven Injury Breakdown is a player who I believe we’ll begin seeing more and more often in my reports as the season goes on. The bottom line with Gurley at this point is that he’s not the player he was last season due to his knee condition. Despite the Rams reporting a “contusion” kept him out of Week Six, it’s within the realm of possibilities that it was actually his arthritis flaring up or a combination of both. As such, it would not be surprising if Gurley once again re-aggravates his knee, leaving Darrell Henderson as the top dog in a game with a ridiculous 54 over/under. Darrell Henderson will likely occupy the Malcolm Brown (OUT) role and could serve as a serious salary saver.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

MVS practiced in a limited fashion on Friday and is listed on the injury report with both knee and ankle injuries. He also admitted that he finished the game on Monday night “on adrenaline” which is not a good sign. Even if MVS is active on Sunday (he’s currently questionable) there’s no way I trust him in cash and would even be hesitant to use him in tournaments despite the volume. Why? Because this is a classic situation in which a starter might play through serious injury due to the state of his team’s overall health. His price tag is just too high for me at this point.

Amari Cooper

I’m surprised Cooper is expected to play considering that on Thursday he “plateaued” in his recovery according to reports. Essentially, a contusion is a bruise of deep tissues. For context, when you or I gracefully ram into a door frame and bruise our arm, that’s only affecting our thickest layer of skin. Now, imagine that same bruise penetrating to the muscle. That’s what Cooper is currently dealing with, which makes me nervous to use him this week. Another aspect to consider is the fact that this is a divisional game that the Cowboys would love to win and take control of the NFC ~~Least~~ East. Additionally, there’s always the possibility that Cooper is activated primarily as a decoy a la Julian Edelman in Week Four following a rib injury. The counter argument here is that all Cooper needs against this awful Eagles secondary is one big play. Even then, I don’t trust him any further than a junior high quarterback could throw a football against the Eagles secondary. Well, that may not be the best analogy.

Josh Gordon

Flash did not practice this week and I’m skeptical he plays on Sunday.

Thank you for reading the Week Seven Injury Breakdown. Make sure to check back with me on Sunday morning for the Final Injury Report. Good luck this week!

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Featured image courtesy of Keith Allison.

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