The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 3M Open. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
*This is a terrible field OVERALL and I would highly recommend playing lite. There is a legit chance that one of 15 – 20 golfers win this week and I wouldn’t be surprised. With that said, my player pool will generally be heavy chalk or punts. I’ll have my cash section still but this week feels like you need to really nail the low end guys and miss the landmines up top. Yes, this is a general rule but I feel with the ease of the course and the field, chalk will make it through the cut line. There will always be one surprise or so but for now I want the chalk.*
**These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.**
Paul Casey $10,100 (Model #1, Projected Ownership 23%)
Brooks Koepka $11,200 (M2, 9%) – Ownership alone makes him a GPP ONLY play for me
Tony Finau $10,900 (M5, 19%)
Tommy Fleetwood $10,500 (M7, 18%)
Bubba Watson $9,900 (M17, 12%) – Coming off a T32 at The Memorial, Watson is sandwiched between chalk three deep on both sides of him on DraftKings. He’s 16th in Tee to Green on comparable courses and and plays really well on the longer par 4s.
Matthew Wolff $9,700 (M19, 17%) – Last years inaugural winner, he placed 22nd last week. The Rocket Mortgage course has been said to comparable to the 2020 3M Open course and he finished 2nd a few weeks back. Does all of his damage right where you need it (OTT & APP)at TPC Twin Cities. He doesn’t make the cash team though because he is a bit inconstant.
Russell Henley $9,200 (M13, 17%) – Back to back made cuts with a T7 at the Workday Charity Open. He did miss the cut here last year but does show well in the comp course model ranking eighth in T2G. Henley checks a lot of boxes and would rank higher if he was a better putter. Luckily putting isn’t the biggest difference maker here.
Erik Van Rooyen $8,800 (M18, 24%) – If you want to make a stand, here is your guy but be careful. Rooyen is elite in terms of off the tee and in his approach. He really struggles in the short game. Like Henley though, that’s not necessarily important. What makes him a good player to move off of if you wish is his inconsistency. On courses that he should dominate, he doesn’t. Im playing him at the moment because, again, he could easily win this week, but he could also miss the cut. Choose your poison.
Luke List $8,400 (M43, 13%) – GPP ONLY play for me, List has everything you want at the 2020 3M Open. A good ball striker that can score points with solid odds. He’s not great with the putter and he can get wild with his swing at times (plenty of hazards). I know thats kind of contradicting the ball striking remark but it’s true. Seems to go on and off at times from one hole to another or one round to another.
Max Homa $8,000 (M10, 11%) – Despite missing three cuts in a row (all on the number I believe) and four out of the last five, Homa is still 45th ranked in the field in strokes gained. That’s a crazy stat and truly shows how weak this field is. Top 25 rank in all the important metrics, this is the week Homa breaks through.
Brain Harman $8,000 (M22, 6%) – I’ve wrote him so many times, these last few tournament with nothing but disappointment in the end. Process over results though, right? His putter is the main culprit to his demise but as a whole its the most varied part of a golfers game. If he can get the ball rolling better on the greens, Harman could not only make the cut but perhaps land in the top 15.
Jhonattan Vegas $7,900 (M9, 12%) – Vegas’ game sets up perfectly for here, which is making higher owned for being a lower priced player. Perhaps better suited as a FRL bet, Vegas does tend to fall off on the weekend. He missed the cut at the Workday but made two top 25 prior.
Sepp Straka $7,900 (M25, 11%) – Since the restart, Straka has made the cut four out of five times. This includes two top 15 finishes including a T8 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic which again is comparable to the 2020 3M open.
Charley Hoffman $7,400 (M34, 10%) – Hoffman is one of the better scorers in the field, which will be needed. Shows up well on comp course model though he did miss the cut last year. Two out of three made cuts since the break, Hoffman feels solid to make the cut and post a possible top 20.
Pat Perez $7,200 (M26, 3%) – Perez is a grinder and can show up from time to time in the top 20. He made the cut at the 3M Open last year (53rd) and made the last two cuts after the restart (T39 & T45). If youre looking for a cheap option without dipping into the 6K, Perez is your man.
Cameron Tringale $7,200 (M50, 5%) – Tringale is another RMC play as he finished T30 a few weeks back. He also made the cut in 2019 finishing 42. A solid ball striker who’s cheap.
Aaron Wise $7,100 (M55, 4%) – A man that can drive the ball with a solid vegas odds. A man that wins off the tee and approach generally, his recent play leaves something to be desired.
Matthias Schwab $7,000 (M45, 4%) – After touting him last week with a perfect 6/6 cut mark, he of course missed. The Memorial was a hard course and more seasoned players with bigger names also were no match. A top 100 OWGR player, he’s mostly seen on the Euro Tour. I think he bounces back with an easier course and weaker field.
Adam Long $7,000 (M32, 1%) – A man with solid stats across the board who is at his best with his irons and putter. 76th ranked in the worlkd according to DataGolf.com he’s one of the highest ranked in the price range.
Chase Seiffert $7,000 (M11, 10%) – Seiffert might get axed by the end if I think his ownership doesn’t drop. The model has him ranked rather high but it might be a lack of rounds to truly justify his ranking. I’ll have him as I don’t argue with the model I don’t know how much. Proceed with caution at the 2020 3M Open.
Matthew NeSmith $6,900 (M16, 2%)
Brice Garnett $6,900 (M36, 2%)
Adam Schenk $6,900 (M33, 4%)
Chesson Hadley $6,900 (M27, 7%)
Hudson Swafford $6,700 (M23, 5%)
Cameron Davis $6,500 (M61, 4%)
Derek Ernst $6,300 (M132, 1%)
Angus Flanagan $6,000 (M91, 1%)
Lucas Gloover $9,400 (M2, 23%)
Harris English $9,000 (M12, 22%)
Doc Redman $8,700 (M8, 23%)
Henrik Norlander $8,600 (M21, 14%)
Ryan Moore $8,100 (M14, 11%)
Troy Merritt $7,500 (M35, 6%)
Richy Werenski $7,400 (M20, 11%)
Vaughn Taylor $6,800 (M4, 3%)
Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2020 3M Open. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 3M Open and helping you find some winning teams!
PGA DFS pricing is elevated for everybody this week with such aweak field, but we’ve got a bunch of viable picks for you to build a winner.
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Tony Finau (DK $10,900) – It’s hard to say how he’ll react to Saturday’s collapse and subsequent Sunday struggles at Jack’s place, but this course sets up well for him with its wider-than-normal fairways and advantage to better drivers. He’ll certainly be hitting more greens this week at a course where he fared well in 2019.
Tommy Fleetwood (DK $10,500) – Fleetwood has as much upside as the top three (more expensive) golfers and ownership shouldn’t be through the roof considering he’s breaking the seal after the layoff. I’ll be overweight in GPPs and he’s my favorite golfer in this price range.
Paul Casey (DK 10,100) – Casey’s price has gone up over $2K since last week, when he missed the cut, so we might see the masses afraid to plug him in. He’s floating to the top of the models and makes sense in all formats – just keep an eye on ownership.
Bubba Watson (DK $9,900) – The WinDaily writers’ group text has been replete with comment’s about Bubba’s viability at this venue, and I’m on board for a few GPPs, where his last couple tournament performances (and an elevated price) could scare off the faint of heart.
Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – The man with one of the best – and coolest-looking – moves in golf is the defending champion, and I imagine could see massive chalk. But I can’t find a good reason to fade him at this point. Wolff played well last week in a much tougher test and seems like a darn good Top 10 bet with obvious winning upside. One of the best bets to repeat at a golf tournament in quite a while.
Also consider: Dustin Johnson(GPP only)
Lucas Glover (DK $9,400) – Glover has been steadily rising as a more and more dependable DFS play in the past month or so, and he’s now tasked with justifying the highest price tag he’ll probably see this year. His 3M resume includes a course record-tying 62 in last year’s tournament and a T7 finish.
Harris English (DK $9,000) – A cash game staple and solid value given his slew of Top 20s this year, English might get popular. He was cleared to play after a positive COVID test and finished T13 at the Memorial.
Erik van Rooyen (DK $8,800) – Van Rooyen seems to be the definition of the feast-or-famine GPP play given his tendency to Top 20 or MC, but I’ll take a shot this week on a course where his skill set seems to match the venue.
Doc Redman (DK $8,700) – Redman hits greens and ranks well in both SG: APP and SG: OTT. With three top 25s in his last four starts (MC last week), he’s a fine play in all formats.
Henrik Norlander (DK $8,600) – The price has jumped over $2K this weekafter I featured him in my plays at $6,500 or under, but a course geared toward ball strikers, there’s no reason to get off him and his red-hot putter.
Sepp Straka (DK $7,900) – Straka struggled on Saturday and Sunday at the Memorial but will enjoy the scoring opportunities that will inevitably come at TPC Twin Cities. He’s a “birdies-in-bunches” type of player who does well off the tee.
Scott Stallings (DK $7,600) – Stallings is modestly priced at $7,600 and for a guy who’s 12 for 16 on the season and should play all four rounds with Top 15 upside, that’s not terrible. He checks a whole bunch of boxes and I’ll have shares in all formats.
Also consider: Sam Burns, Luke List,Patrick Rodgers, Max Homa, Jhonattan Vegas, Will Gordon, Dylan Frittelli
Troy Merritt (DK $7,400) – The T8 at the Rocket Mortgage sticks out as a selling point (along with solid overall play this season), and he finished T7 at the 3M last year. I’m more than comfortable rostering him in all formats given his Top 10 upside.
Charles Howell III (DK $7,400) – There’s cause for concerngiven his current form, considering his last top 15 came in January well before the layoff. But CH3 is an obvious course horse who checks most of the boxes this week and is available at a significant discount.
Ricky Werenski (DK $7,400) – Werenski is popping on the models and made the cut in last year’s event. He probably lacks winning upside but seems to be playing consistent golf these days.
Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,300) – I’m once again looking at the Rocket Mortgage finishers, and Ventura posted a T21 in what was a pretty steady week. The Norwegian Korn Ferry regular could surprise some folks this week in a relatively weak field.
Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale is one of my GPP specials this week, and he’s decent risk-reward bet for a Top 25 given his most recent finishes.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100) – You know the story on Grillo – the putter just needs to be better than terrible for him to make the cut, and decent-to-good for him to make a run at the Top 10.
Brice Garnett (DK $6,900) – Garnett is another golfer that either shows up to play or bombs out, with three MCs and three Top 20s in his last six tournaments.
More value golfers forGPPs: Charley Hoffman, Wyndham Clark (WD risk, back), Tom Hoge, Aaron Wise,Talor Gooch, Scott Piercy, Adam Schenk, Jason Dufner, Harry Higgs
Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – If the rib injury isn’t a problem, Percy could give us a memorable DFS week at such a low price.
J.J. Spaun (DK $6,500) – Spaun’s ability to make birdies sets him apart from some of the other chumps in the $6-7K range. Far from a DFS lock, I’ll sprinkle him into GPPs.
Seamus Power (DK $6,500) – Another birdie-maker who can crank it out there, Power finished T12 at the Rocket Mortgage and is among my favorite plays in this value range.
Additionalpunts: Roger Sloan, JoshTeator, Derek Ernst, Arjun Atwal, Angus Flanagan
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and helping you find some winning teams!
The PGA DFS pricing is a little tight again this week if you’re trying to fit in a couple $10K+ guys, so we’ve got a big list for you to choose from.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,700) – Beefy (and snacky!) Bryson is the betting favorite, but the irons failed him a bit last week and I might get more shares of the guys who are just a little cheaper.
Webb Simpson (DK $11,000) – Webb’s last start was an impressive victory, and he’s second in my model after Viktor Hovland. I won’t go overboard but I’ll be fine coming in around (or a little over) the field ownership rate in multi-entry GPPs.
Tyrell Hatton (DK 10,700) – I have a good feeling about T2G monster Hatton turning this golden opportunity into another Top 5 finish, and he’s got the chops on Par 4s (and on the greens) to win. Giddyup.
Patrick Reed (DK $10,500) – Reed is never super-popular and I think he’s starting to heat up, shooting 64 on Sunday at the Travelers. He’s a great GPP play with winning upside.
Victor Hovland (DK $10,000) – This could be the week to go way overboard on Hovland and double the field ownership percentage in GPPs. The price jump may scare folks off but the field is weak and he’s just getting better and better since resuming play.
Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama,Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler (GPP)
Tony Finau (DK $9,300) – I’ve been burned by a popular Tony Finau before, but he’s got ten straight rounds under par and I’m going right back to the well with him on a Par 4-heavy course he should be able to dominate.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,000) – This is Scottie’s type of event – from the field strength to the focus stat categories. He’s fifth in my model rankings this week and the MC last week will keep his ownership low.
Rory Sabbatini (DK $8,800) – Sabbatini (T14 and T21 in his last two starts) is a pretty good iron player who has an excellent chance of making the cut, and sometimes he gets hot and into low numbers because of his consistent scoring opportunities. The Aussie is 18th in my model this week and could work for cash games as well.
J.T. Poston (DK $8,700) – Throw out last week and focus on what JT does best – eat up Par 4s and excel T2G on Ross designs. A snazzy putter and excellent GPP play who could be a difference-maker.
Doc Redman (DK $8,500) – He’s getting more popular and the word is out about his wonderful ball striking, and he’s 3-for-3 since the break with a pair of Top 25s. Fade him at your own risk.
Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $8,300) – Solid all-around game, and the first-timer designation isn’t an issue with so many playing this track for the first time.
Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,900) – He’ll likely be popular at this price (way too low) and the pop stroke could work well here again. He’s just got to avoid the big numbers.
Also consider: Bubba Watson, Lucas Glover, Erik Van Rooyen, Adam Hadwin, Maverick McNealy
Scott Stallings (DK $7,500) – Scott Stallings isn’t a name that normally inspires confidence, but he’s popping in my models and he’s coming off a big T6 at the Travelers.
Will Gordon (DK $7,300) – I’m a believer in making the most of opportunities and talent, and that’s been a great combo for Gordon. There’s a shot at a letdown but we’ve seen stories like this before.
Kyle Stanley (DK $7,100) – Stanley should have notched a Top 10 last week before the putter went cold, and he’s just too valuable at this price to pass up.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,100) – The Colombian gives himself chances and last week’s MC was a disappointment for a guy with such great ball-striking ability. The price is right for the upside in GPPs.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100) – I’ve said it many times, if Grillo can get hot with the putter, he’s got a chance to win. He’s tops in the field for both SG: APP and Opportunities Gained.
Tyler Duncan (DK $7,000) – Two solid rounds sandwiching two so-so ones got him a T32 finish last week, and I like him to make the cut and finish in the Top 40 or so again. Worth a look.
Tom Hoge (DK $7,000) – He’s got an outside shot at a Top 20 here after a T37 last week and solid numbers in SG:APP and overall.
Cameron Tringale (DK $6,600) – Tringale finished T5 here last year, he’s super cheap, and he’s easily one of my favorite options this week for value. Homeboy checks all the boxes and got a start under his belt last week, even if he missed the cut.
More value golfers forGPPs: Joseph Bramlett, Brian Stuard, Mark Hubbard, Peter Uihlein, HarryHiggs, Matthew Wolff, Chesson Hadley, Andrew Putnam
Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – Eighth in my model and the weaker field should be les of an intimidator on Thursday and Friday. We need some cheap guys to make the cut and get hot, and he’s one.
Josh Teator (DK $6,400) – Another punt from my mixed model cheatsheet, Teator is an all-or-nothing type player who misses cuts (he made it here last year) or finishes well. Don’t go overboard – he’s worth a look in 5-7 percent of GPPs.
Tyler McCumber (DK $6,300) – Purely a gut play because of decent ball-striking/approach numbers and a golden opportunity here.
I know I’m crazy for considering: Wes Bryan (DK $6,500), Jonathan Byrd (DK $6,100), Roger Sloan (DK $6,200)
Thanks for checking this article PGA DFS Picks for the Rocket Mortgage Classic! Make sure to hop in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat and look out for more articles on WinDailySports.com!
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the WGC-Mexico Championship, and helping you find some winning teams!
The PGA DFS picks this week focus on the more expensive golfers, and many of my value picks are European tour regulars who may prefer this layout and its surfaces to the Americans.
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Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500, FD $12,200) – He’s almost guaranteed a Top 10 finish this week, all things considered. He’ll have a huge advantage off the tee and putting is less important on these surfaces. Rory is my pick to win this week and I’ll be around 40-50% again in GPPs.
Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – If Rory is my 1A favorite, DJ is my 1B. Anything shy of a Top 3 finish will likely hurt us if Rory ends up winning (because of the much tougher pricing this week). Johnson is guaranteed four rounds here barring some type of injury, and his talent and ball-striking should shine through.
Jon Rahm (DK $10,600, FD $11,800) – “Rahmbo” finished third here in 2017 and could see lower ownership than the other high-priced studs. T17 last week and no TV coverage of his Sunday round could affect recency bias and make him a great GPP choice.
Xander Schauffele (DK $9,400, FD $11,100) – He finished T23 after carding a 69 on Sunday in the Genesis, but really struggled with his putter – a common theme. If we toss that out and get a little better flat stick performance from him, he’s a great bet for the Top 5.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,000, FD $10,800) – He’s a GPP-only and he didn’t fare too well here last season. If he’s made the necessary math adjustments and can putt a little better this week, we could see the beefier Bryson fare quite well.
Also consider: JustinThomas, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,900, FD $10,400) – No more discounts this week for guys like Louis – who would have come in well under $8K. He’s a perfect GPP play who’s improved each time he’s played here.
Paul Casey, (DK $8,700, FD $10,700) – I like him for one of the same reasons as Oosthuizen (continued improvement in course history), and he’s putted well here in the past. He’s a ball-striking madman and could get popular.
Sergio Garcia (DK $8,600, FD $10,300) – Three straight Top 15s here with Top 10s in his past two. If his putter gets hot, we could see a breakthrough weekend and a pretty good return on our investment.
Gary Woodland (DK $8,300, FD $10,100) – The biggest question mark with Gary is SG: Approach, which is, unfortunately, an important focus stat this week. He’s a GPP play for me on lineups where I’m looking for balance and a slew of Top 15 guys with upside.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK ($8,000, FD $9,600) – The price increase wasn’t too bad (+ $300 on DK), and I doubt we’ll see ownership eclipse 10% this week. I’m still waiting for his breakout performance of 2020, and this could be the week.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello (DK $7,600, FD $9,200) – RCB suits our profile here and finished third in 2018 when he posted four rounds in the 60s (good for a DK bonus). His form is solid enough (T17 last week at Riviera) and another Euro golfer we have to consider.
Also consider: Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Abraham Ancer, Victor Perez
Bernd Wiesberger (DK $7,400, FD $8,400) – Coming off two MCs at the European Tour’s desert venues, Wiesberger will see much lower ownership than the 23rd ranked player in the world (who’s won three times in the last year) on a course that fits him like a golf glove. And his pricing on both sits is very affordable.
Tyrell Hatton (DK ($7,400, FD $9,100) – Hatton has played well here but it’s his first start of 2020 following wrist surgery. Let’s hope for a limited number of rough lies than a be complicated by the spongy and thick Kikuyu.
Kurt Kitayama (DK ($7,200, FD $8,800) – Kitayama finished T18 at Pebble Beach after a T6 finish in the desert in Dubai. He’s a world traveler with plenty of experience on different surfaces, so I think his frustration level could be lower than others in the field.
Kevin Kisner (DK ($7,200, FD $9,400) – He could easily become frustrated with the putting surfaces, as he much prefers Bermuda – but Kisner is a gamer with three straight Top 30s at this event (his best finish here was 11th in 2017).
Charles Howell III (DK ($7,100, FD $9,500) – Finished 14th here in his tournament debut last season and has the length and ball-striking prowess to post another solid Top 20, but I’m not going overboard like folks did last week when he disappointed and finished T59.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,100, FD $9,000) – It’s hard to say how he’ll adjust to the elevation and perform in his debut, but he’s a good fit, and he’s talented enough to shine in his WGC debut.
Lee Westwood (DK $6,900, FD $8,300) – He’s really turned his career around and has played here a couple of times (28th in 2017, 33rd in 2019). Won in January at the Abu Dhabi HSBC over Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick and Victor Perez – three other golfers I’ll have shares of this week.
Lanto Griffin (DK $6,700, FD $8,100) – He’s got a shot at a Top 20 finish, and for this price, I’ll have some exposure in GPPs. It was encouraging to see him make the cut and finish among the Top 40 last week in his Genesis debut.
Erik Van Rooyen (DK $6,600, FD $8,200) – I don’t have much interest in the golfers under $7K this week, but I’ll have some exposure to EVR again after he missed the cut last week.
More value golfers forGPPs: Matt Wallace, Danny Willett, Christian Bezuidenhout,Carlos Ortiz, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, Jorge Campillo
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Genesis Open and helping you find some winning teams!
Your PGA DFS picks this week should focus on including both stars and scrubs lineups and a more balanced approach.
Rory McIlroy (DK $11,600, FD $12,200) – The new No. 1 player in the world, and the betting favorite, Rory checks all the boxes at Riviera. He hasn’t yet won here, so I’m personally hoping for a Rory-Tiger showdown on Sunday.
Justin Thomas (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – JT remains one of the favorites to win here, and while I won’t be all in, there’s plenty of reasons not to fade him – including two straight Top 10s (a second-place finish last season among them).
Tiger Woods (DK $10,400, FD $11,600) – This was the site of his first PGA event (way back in 1992 when he played as a 16-year-old), but he’s never won here. I’d love to see him breakthrough with his first victory, and he certainly has the game and profile to do it. I’ll just be happy to come in slightly ahead of the field in terms of GPP ownership.
Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,800, FD $11,400) – I love him this week, and while I’m not alone in that regard, I’ll be sure to be well ahead of the field in terms of ownership. If Koepka and Rory make 40-50 percent of my GPP builds, Cantlay will be next at around 35-40 percent.
Brooks Koepka (DK $9,400, FD $11,500) – The fact that Koepka missed the cut here in his only try (2017) will keep his ownership down, but it’s hilarious that he’s cheaper than both Tiger and Bubba Watson. I’ll have plenty of exposure in GPPs for this grinder on a grinder’s course. He’s second on my rankings after Rory.
Adam Scott (DK $9,000, FD $10,800) – Scott isn’t as exciting as many of the other golfers in the $9K range, but he’s had a good track record here and won the Australian PGA Championship in December. There could be some rust, but I still like him for his Par 4 (450-500) stats.
Also consider: Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama
Marc Leishman (DK $8,700, FD $10,500) – Leishman, like the next golfer on our list, has all the attributes we look for at Riviera, and with a reduced price because of the studs clogging the “elite” cost range. I’m far from all in, but it won’t be a complete fade.
Justin Rose (DK $8,500, FD $10,700) – He’s an excellent ball striker who outclasses a lot of the field on long approaches. He makes for a solid GPP play considering his MC at the Farmers and T4 finish here last season. A solid Top 10 bet with winning upside.
Sungjae Im (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) – I think he’ll make the cut and he’s a weekly threat to finish Top 10. He should excel here because of his SG: ARG stats, and I’m not too concerned about him missing the cut here last season in his first try. We’ve seen guys fare poorly here a first-timers and figure it out quickly.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK ($7,700, FD $9,700) – I’m betting on Fitzy shaking off the bad week on the roller coaster that is the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and getting right back to what he does best – firing low scores and filling out GPP lineups with enormous upside.
Kevin Na (DK ($7,600, FD $9,600) – We can’t count him out based on his course history T2 in 2018 and T4 in 2017). I’m not the biggest fan of his game and I’ve been burned by his WDs before (haven’t we all?), but there’s plenty of value here.
Branden Grace (DK ($7,500, FD $9,600) – Do you like discounts? Grace’s price has dropped $1,800 since last week, and we can take advantage of the soft pricing and roster this South African golfer who has gone on record that he likes this track for its similarity to his home courses.
Joaquin Niemann (DK ($7,300, FD $9,400) – We saw a Joaquin do well in LA at the Oscars, and now it’s this guy’s turn to shine and rise like a Phoenix. He fits all the focus stats categories with the glaring exception of SG: ARG, but he managed to make the cut and finish 44th here last year as a first-timer. Clearly a GPP-only play, Niemann will make about 10-20 percent of my builds.
Jason Kokrak (DK $7,100, FD $8,900) – If you’re looking for a great value play, look no further than Kokrak, who’s popping on all my models for his balance of ball-striking and distance and is 5/5 here with a T2 in 2016. If the short game comes through he could make an appearance on the leaderboard come Sunday.
Also consider: Patrick Reed, Paul Casey, Charles Howell, Ryan Moore, Max Homa, Cameron Champ, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Hadwin
Erik Van Rooyen (DK $7,000, FD $8,800) – Full disclosure – I use Van Rooyen a lot in GPPs and love his combo of ball striking and distance. He’s not the best around the greens, so he’s always an X-factor for that reason and not my favorite cash gameplay.
Carlos Ortiz (DK $6,800, FD $8,400) – He might be popular this week, especially if folks are looking at course history and the same focus stats as we are. Carlos putts well on poa annua and ranks well on long Par 4s (450-500).
Martin Laird (DK $6,500, FD $8,000) – Another horse for the course, Laird loves the West Coast and had three straight Top 15 finishes here from 2016-2018 before missing the cut in 2019. He ranks 23rd in the field on Par 4s (450-500), and he’s quite a bargain.
Michael Thompson (DK $6,400, FD $7,300) – I had to change one number from last week’s writeup: “I like that he finished T10 T7 here last year and ranks highly in the Strokes Gained (overall) and SG: ARG categories. Worth a look in GPPs, but very risky.”
Talor Gooch (DK $6,300, FD $7,600) – Gooch is a cut maker and he’s finished in 20th place in his only appearance here in 2018. He’s incredibly cheap and should be a staple of my GPP builds.
Luke List (DK $6,600, FD $7,700) – List was one of the hottest golfers in DFS back in 2018, and he’s had his share of ups and downs. But he’s coming off a couple of made cuts and decent play at the Farmers Insurance Open (T36) and Waste Management Open (T25) and he’s played well at Riviera. A GPP filler who has a decent shot at making the cut and finishing Top 25.
Sung Kang (DK $6,700, FD $8,100) – Kang is one of many Korean golfers who seem to play well at Riviera, which has similar turf to the native grasses on their home courses on the other side of the world. He’s got plenty of upsides this week.
More value golfers for GPPs: Bud Cauley, Brian Harman, Patrick Rodgers, Sam Burns, Steve Stricker, Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Brian Stuard
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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re onto the final leg of theAsian swing with for the WGC-HSBC Champions in China. Let’s find some GPPwinners!
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Quick reviewof last week: We had Tiger, Matsuyama and Rory in our core builds, and theyfinished 1-3. We also pegged high-priced Matthew Fitzpatrick as a key fade, andhe finished second to last among the 76 golfers who finished the tournament. Prettysolid.
Okay. Now onto this week.
PGA DFS Course Notes:
Rory McIlroy (DK $11,700, FD$12,400) –We talked about how Rory likestree-line layouts, and he finished T3 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, where he ledthe field in par-5 scoring – obne of our top stats this week. In four starts atSheshan International, he has two top-10s and a T11. Giddyup.
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $11,100, FD $11,400) – Matsuyama is playing really well and his form (T16, a T3 and a solo second to open the season) isn’t the only thing he’s got going. He tore the course to shreds at Sheshan International in 2016 en route to a seven-shot victory.
Xander Schauffele (DK $10,800, FD $11,300) – Xander likes the competition of a loaded field, and there’s a lot of great golfers here to get him pumped up. He’s the defending champion and he finished T10 at Narashino on Sunday. The X-Man is ready.
Justin Rose (DK $10,500, FD $11,200) – I like Rose, despitehis putting woes. I like Justin, so much that I’m bustin! Seriously, though – theEnglishman is a great ball striker and he won here in 2017, finishing third inhis title defense.
Also consider: Paul Casey,Patrick Reed, Tony Finau
Adam Scott (DK $9,300, FD $10,600) – Adam has top-20s in three of the last five appearances here and in five of his last seven starts worldwide. That’s a great start, he’s got a good price, and he’s shown improvement with his occasionally shaky putting.
Billy Horschel (DK $8,900, FD$10,200) –When he’srolling, he’s really rolling. He finished T6 at ZOZO and that gave him his 10thtop-25 in 14 starts worldwide. Finished T11 here last year and has a greatattitude, especially in no-cut events.
Byeong Hun An (DK $9,100, FD$10,000) –Ben hasplayed well recently, which helped carry him through a difficult course design atthe ZOZO. He was T6 at NINE BRIDGES, he finished T8 at Narashino and while Shesanis a challenge, he’s a solid contrarian play who will be low-owned.
Corey Connors (DK $8,200, FD$9,300) – Connorsis one of the more underrated golfers on tout and has finished T13-T12-T6 inadvance of his debut at Shesan. PGA tour notes that he excelled on TPC SanAntonio’s tough par 5s – which is a featured stat here.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $7,600, FD$8,900) –Oostyfinished T46th last week, but I’ll chalk that up to bad weather. He’s still greatoff the tee, a solid ball striker and a fiery competitor who can get hot with theputter.
Matt Wallace (DK $ FD $9,600) – The cheeky, sometimes-harsh Brit is debuting as an official member of the PGA Tour and has three top-10s and a T15 in his last five starts on the Euro Tour. We saw a little of what he can do in crowded fields last season during the majors, and he’s got plenty of upside.
Charles Howell, III (DK $7,900, FD $9,000) – A long and accuratehitter and bentgrass specialist who seems like an excellent course fit, Howellis cheap and scores well on Par 4s – so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubton this unfamiliar layout.
Also consider: Sungjae Im, Tyrell Hatton, Bernd Wiesberger, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry
Erik Van Rooyen (DK $7,500, FD $8,700) – One of my favorite under-the-radarGPP plays, Van Rooyen got cut last week but otherwise has been in good form. Hefinished T14-T12-Win-T5-T20-T14-MC-T10-MC over his last nine starts dating backto the Euro Tour’s Scottish Open, and he’s a career best 58th in the OfficialWorld Golf Ranking.
Kevin Kisner (DK $7,400, FD$8,600) –Kisner is a capable player without any major flaws who’s always underpriced,and I like his chances of rebounding after a tough T66 at the ZOZO. Jet lag isa thing.
Chez Reavie (DK $7,400, FD$8,600) –I’ll be using him exclusively in GPPs after last week’s debacle. I can guessthat poor showing was in part because of the weather, because he’s too good to finishthat far down. He’ll be off most people’s lists, which puts him on mine.
Keegan Bradley (DK $7,000, FD$8,600) – A long and straight driver of the golf ball, theenigmatic but eminently likeable Bradley has some good performances here: T11(2013) and sixth (2018) at Sheshan International and finished T13 at Narashino,where he was T6 in GIR. GPP-only play.
More value golfers for GPPs: Lucas Glover, Joost Luiten, MikeLorenzo-Vera, Romain Langasque, J.T. Poston
Ian Poulter (DK $7,700, FD $9,000) – He’s not great withexpectations, and he’ll be really popular because of his record in China. Golfis a fickle beast, and Poulter won’t make too many of my builds.
Jordan Spieth (DK $9,400, FD $10,400) – I’m not sure Spieth hasproven anything on the golf course recently, and he finished T66 at the ZOZO. Theprice is still too high, and I’m not convinced he’s accurate enough off the teeto excel here.
Henrik Stenson (DK $9,800, FD $10,800) – “He’s only done well in Euro tournaments recently and the first week without his three-wood, he misses the cut. He’s overpriced – should be in the $8K range on DK.” – Mark “Spades” Spada
Right there withyou, Spades. The magic three wood is gone, and so is the magic golf game.Stenson isn’t a great putter, and he missed the cut at the Houston Open despitebeing the odds-on favorite. He’s a fade for me, bro.
R. McIlroy ($11,700)
B. Horschel ($8,900)
C. Conners ($8,200)
K. Kisner ($7,200)
K. Bradley ($7,000)
J.T. Poston ($6,700)
X. Schauffele ($10,800)
A. Scott ($9,300)
L. Oosthuizen ($7,600)
C. Reavie ($7,000)
M. Lorenzo-Vera ($6,600)
M. Wallace ($8,700)
J. Rose ($10,500)
E. Van Rooyen ($7,500)
B. An ($9,100)
J. Luiten ($7,100)
T. Hatton ($8,600)
L. Glover ($7,100)
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