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Emiliano Grillo

PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

This edition of PGA DFS picks takes us to iconic Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, giving us some key golfers to mix into our winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Strong invitational field of 123 golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
2020 winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
The course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge (Bay Hill, FL – Dick Wilson design w/Palmer renovations/layout tweaks)
- Par 72 (7,466 yards)
- Iconic and difficult venue with lots of water and bunkers in play
- Played as the hardest course on the PGA Tour last year
- Pressure golf at its most demanding
- Bermuda greens and fairways
Wind could play a factor this week, rain expected Saturday
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Proximity 200+, SG: Tee to Green, Par 5 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500) – We’re still waiting on the next big win from Rory and while his putting remains a concern, this is as fine a venue as any to take a shot. The track record at Bay Hill is nearly spotless (he’s the 2018 champ and has four straight top six finishes here) and the premium price reflects that. But if we want him on a few of our GPP teams there’s plenty of value golfers we can use to make it happen without it feeling like extreme stars and scrubs.

Viktor Hovland (DK $10,600) – Sia loves him this week and the only possible reason Hovland be considered a “risky” golfer in this top tier because it’s just his third appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While he’s made the cut both times, he posted a T40 and T42, so we’re expecting a big step forward. The difference between that Viktor and the new Viktor is his ability to drain big putts, and he’s second in my model after Sam Burns, who has yet to break through at Bay Hill as well. Hovland should have a better handle on this difficult layout now and I can’t bet against him – he’ll probably be on my short list for single-entry.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton won here last year and is 4-for-4 since 2017, when he finished T4 (with McIlroy). He’s showing up in the top five in my models (tweaked for recent form (24 rounds) and the last 75 rounds and is a solid play in all formats. He’s first in the Proximity 200+ yards stats which we know is a huge factor on this beast of a golf course.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,800) – There’s going to be a lot of sticker shock when folks see the price this week compared to the Genesis, and even last week when he was just $8,500. He’s an excellent play on a tough golf course where he’s had consecutive Top 10 finishes (including a second place finish in 2019). He could get popular and we’ll just have to watch the projected ownership percentages to see how much we’ll need in GPPs.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Patrick Reed, Sungjae Im

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Francesco Molinari ($8,700) – The model isn’t in love with him this week because it includes a stretch of rustiness from the Italian. But Molinari has been on the right track recently and the course record here is brilliant, with a win in 2019 and a couple of top tens before that. He’s an option in smaller tournaments (as Joel pointed out in the breakdown video), but his popularity could make him a fade in larger GPPs.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) – There may not be a golf course in the known universe that Zalatoris can’t handle, and despite the fact that this is his Bay Hill debut, the youngster has the chops to flourish where others struggle on this demanding layout. The ball-striking prowess is there, and If the putter can pick up a few strokes on the field, look out.

Max Homa (DK $8,500) – Homa finished T24 in his API debut last season, and his game has taken a big step forward since then – with more ball-striking consistency and dominance of Par 5s, where the scoring usually happens. I really like Homa again this week at a fairly priced $8,500 and I’m considering using him in my core GPP builds.

Sam Burns (DK $8,400) – Burns will undoubtedly be popular this week, but he’s first on my model given his excellent numbers over the past 24 rounds, and I’ll have a tough time getting away from him in all formats. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of how much he’s learned as he tackles this course for the fourth time after three lukewarm results (T49-T-54-T36).

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Gooch may not be ready to contend for a win on Sunday, and neither the model nor his recent form scream “must play” this week. But he’s 2-for-2 at Bay Hill, so we can use him in both cash and GPP if we need a golfer in the $7,500-8,000 range.

Cameron Davis (DK $7,900) – Davis would be my favorite play under $8K if we had any kind of course history to go off, because he’s top five in my model and he can get it done off the tee and on the greens when his putter is rolling. The wind could blow this week, but he’s got an earlier time on Thursday.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,700) – Tringale has been good lately but hasn’t played this event since 2016. He’s in my model’s top 20 and has excellent SG:APP and SG Par 5 numbers. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Bermuda Championship in late October, and while he might get popular, he’s good value at this price.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Paul Casey, Marc Leishman (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Lanto Griffin, Charley Hoffman (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,400) – Grillo’s ball-striking keeps him in the top 30 of my model, and he’s been trending as a “one week on, next week off” type of golfer with respect to his overall game. We know he struggles on Par 5s and with his putter, but his T11 finish in Puerto Rico (in windy conditions) is a step in the right direction. He hasn’t played here since 2018 but was T7 in 2017.

Luke List (DK $7,200) – He missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational and his ownership should remain pretty low this week despite an affinity for the venue (T17-T7-T10 in his last three appearances here) and decent play since the Sony Open. Like Grillo, List can struggle with the putter but he’s No 15 in my model and the SG: OTT and T2G numbers are elite. I’m considering him for my single entry GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – I’m noticing a pattern with this price range: good ball striking, bad putting. Kirk fits that bill with more balance in his overall numbers and a a Top 30 ranking in my mode, just ahead of Doc Redman and Max Homa. If you need some value in building a GPP lineup, that’s not a bad trio to start with in large-field MMEs, as adding Cam Davis leaves you with more than $20K for your next two golfers.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,000) – The recent form isn’t great, but we know that Bradley just tends to show up on the leaderboard out of the blue on venues that play to his strengths. Like the previous three golfers, he has some trouble with the flat stick, but he’s tops in the field in SG:APP over his last 24 rounds and ranks second T2G. If you need a cheap, off-the-wall GPP play to fill out your roster, look no further than the enigmatic Bradley, who’s 5-for-5 here and ranks eighth overall in my model.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – NeSmith is popping on everybody’s models this week (he’s third overall on mine) and three straight finishes inside the Top 20 – combined with this low price – should make him extremely popular this week. One of the first column I read this week listed him as a “sleeper” pick, but that might not be the best way to describe a guy who’s approach 15% projected ownership. Still – he’s a decent value play this week despite missing the cut at his first Bay Hill appearance in 2020.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,800) – He hasn’t performed up to his capabilities on Par 5s recently like Matt Jones (definitely someone to consider this week), but he’s a solid off-the-radar play given his T2G game and high ranking in Opportunities Gained (eight in the field). Varner is in my model’s top 25 and while he’s just 2-for-4 at Bay Hill, I could easily see him in the Top 20 on Sunday.

More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Branden Grace (GPP), Matt Jones, Corey Conners, Henrik Norlander, Zach Johnson, Erik van Rooyen, Brendan Steele (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Chez Reavie, Doug Ghim, Lucas Glover

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) –There’s no course history to speak of, but Percy is No. 33 in my model and makes for a solid GPP play in this price range. The biggest question marks are his putter and lack of experience at Bay Hill.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,500) – Like Varner, I’m a little concerned about his ability o take advantage of the Par 5s here, as he ranks way down at No. 111 in the field in that category. But the rest of the game is golden, and he’s actually No. 24 in my overall model.

Additional punts: Tom Hoge (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Doc Redman (GPP), Mark Hubbard (GPP)

3 years ago 0 comment

PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Field of 132 golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Webb Simpson (-17)
The courses: TPC Scottsdale
- Par 71 – 7,261 yards
- Altitude means bombers will bomb even harder, but driving accuracy also important
- Fans not as much of a factor, going from 200,000+ to about 5K
- Fast Bermuda greens
6/6 golfers making the cut should be easier this week with the smaller field
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, Par 4s: 450-500, Par 5s Gained, Opportunities Gained, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bermuda)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm might be ready for a breakthrough at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after four straight performances among the top 16 in which he’s placed higher each time (16-11-10 and a T9 last season). His ball striking and short game make him a threat to win every week, but he and the next guy are 2-1 in my model, respectively, so I won’t be fading Rahmbo at TPC Scottsdale.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – JT returns to the business of dominating golf courses with his complete bag of tools – which he’s probably anxious to dust off after a missed cut at Abu Dhabi and an unfortunate and embarrassing foot-in-mouth incident where he uttered a slur after a missed putt. There’s some merit to fading him in GPPs since he’s bound to be highly owned, but I always have a hard time leaving him off my favorite teams. He’s first or second in five of the nine focus stats listed above and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,100) – The defending champion took last week off after playing both tournaments in Hawaii (T17 at Sentry TOC and T4 at the Sony Open), and he’s made 7/7 cuts this year. He’s not a long hitter, so he’ll have to deploy a different strategy than the bombers on the long par 4s and par 5s, but he’s won here before and can do it again.

Daniel Berger (DK $9,600) – Berger works best in cash games where you’re fading the $10K and up range and looking for more balance, especially since he’s making cuts with such consistency and flashing top 10 upside. He’s not my favorite to win, but he’s finished in the top 25 in four straight events and in the 25-30 range in the previous two. Berger isn’t a complicated golfer to handicap – he just has a little trouble winning (three career, his last at the 2020 Charles Schwab).

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100) – I was going to start off this tier with Sungjae Im, but I like Scheffler’s upside in large-field GPPs a bit more and would prefer Im in cash games in the $9,000-$9,500 price range. Scheffler didn’t do well in his debut here last season, but if he can get hot with the putter and make the cut, there’s no telling what he can pull off on Sunday. Probably not a staple of my single-entry GPP, but just the kind of guy I want to mix up my small-stakes, multi-entry GPP tickets.

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,000) – There’s no course history to examine here, but it’s not an overly complex setup tee to green – so the talented Zalatoris is definitely in play here, especially in GPPs where folks could shay away from the price tag and the dearth of experience at TPC Scottsdale. There’s really not a venue that can throw off Willie Z, so I’m buying with the inherent risk of his short game lacking the umph to carry him onto the leaderboard.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,500) – Bubba is a course horse (T3 and T4 in last two years here) and a guy who thrives on fast greens. His poor showing at the Masters and missed cut last week at the Farmers doesn’t instill confidence, but he’s No. 17 on my model and is worth a look in GPPs.

Billy Horschel (DK $8,400) – If we throw out Horschel’s MC last week, there’s a lot to like about his recent play. He’s also 5-for-5 here with a Top 10 last season, and while he’s not necessarily popping (No. 49 overall) on my model this week, he’s viable in those balanced cash builds we’ve discussed – and even a few tournaments.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Like Watson, Gary is a golfer who’s best days in the sport may be behind him – but there’s still plenty to like about the course fit and track record: he’s four-for-his-last-five here and won the event in 2018. If he can strike it well and seize on his opportunities this week, he might make for a solid GPP play in “balanced” builds.

Russell Henley (DK $8,200) – Henley seems to alternate missed cuts with Top 20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale, as well as MCs with Top 30s in his recent play. When I take that pattern and add in that he’s on the beat for the better of those two scenarios this year – and this week – the fact that he’s No. 12 in my model (and No.1 in both SG: BS and SG: APP) gets me excited. He’s my favorite play for GPPs in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, and I dare say is viable in both single-entry and cash.

Sam Burns (DK $7,700) – Burns is the sub-$8K player who’s “popping” the most on my models (No. 6 overall) and while he played well last week, the Sunday 75 kept him from a Top 10 finish. He’s 0-for-2 here but If he can turn it around with the putter this week – and he’s normally pretty solid with the flat stick but lost almost 3 shots to the field last week – he could make for a solid under-the-radar play in all formats.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,700) – Kuchar loves the Waste Management Open (4-for-4 with three top 10s and a T16 in his last four tries) and the price is significantly reduced since his game has taken a turn for the worse since COVID-19. Maybe this event will bring up some good memories.

Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Harris English (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Corey Conners, Max Homa, Carlos Ortiz, Talor Gooch (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,500) – Norlander’s play can be wildly inconsistent week-to-week, but he’s playing well right now (T12 at the AMEX and T2 last week at Torrey Pines) and is tops in the field playing Par 4s (450-500). A first-timer in Phoenix, Norlander makes sense as a GPP play – but I’d steer clear in cash.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – He’s No. 35 on my model this week with no glaring deficiencies other than a relatively weak putter. Steele has fared well here before (third place in 2018) but missed the cut in the last two tries. He’s a good bet for a bounceback and could be a viable cash game target at this price.

Charley Hoffman (DK $7,000) – I normally don’t play Hoffman but this might be the week I jump aboard. The model likes him (No. 35 overall) and he’s perfect in his last five tries here with three finishes among the top 26 golfers.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,700) – Varner is always a bit risky but he had Top 10 upside at this venue and is an excellent ball striker who’s popping in my model. Like many good ball strikers who haven’t won, his struggles are usually on the greens, so that’ll be something to watch this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Higgs is the opposite of Varner (not a great ball striker, better on and around the greens), but priced similarly because he’s a damn good putter. If you’re down to under $7K for your last piece, you could pivot between him and HV3.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,600) – I like playing Hubbard in GPPs, and he’s actually 3-for-3 at the Waste Management Open – a promising stat for a guy priced this low. Nothing in his recent play is very promising, but the T9 finish last year points to an affinity for TPC Scottsdale and the low price means he could work for top heavy lineups that need some value plays.

Denny McCarthy (DK $6,600) – McCarthy is tops in the field for SG:P and his flat stick keeps him in the conversation at most venues. This week, the elevation could help with his distance (he does play Par 5s well) and the fact that he’s made the cut in two tries here and should be low owned means he’s worth a look in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Zach Johnson, Emiliano Grillo (GPP), Byeong Hun An (GPP), John Huh, Luke List (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik Van Rooyen, James Hahn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – Hoge has missed three straight cuts, but he’s improved with each appearance at this tournament, culminating with a T25 last year. There aren’t any sure things at $6,500 and under, but I’ll be overweight on last week’s secret weapon after his disappointing performances at the AMEX and Farmers.

Padraig Harrington (DK $6,200) – Harrington has made the cut in four straight events and is near the minimum price on DK. His game around the greens is still solid, and while he’s a longshot DFS play, he’s easy to root for.

Additional punt options: Brian Stuard, Keith Mitchell (GPP), Hudson Swafford

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: RSM Classic at Sea Island

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the RSM Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Stronger field than normal for this venue, 156 golfers total
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties
Last year: Tyler Duncan (-19: Beat Webb Simpson in playoff)
The course: Sea Island Golf Club (St. Simons island, GA)
Seaside: Par 70 (7,005 yards); Plantation: Par 72 (7,060)
Lots of scoring – rough isn’t penal and winners post low scores
Bermuda greens on resort-style courses
Rotation: one round at Plantation and the other at Seaside course
“Sea Island Mafia” golfers tend to fare well on their home course
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Birdie or Better %, SG: Off the Tee, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Ball-Striking

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Webb Simpson (DK $11,200) – I’m still interested in massive shares of Webb (the runaway #1 in my models) for GPPs – even though he’s bound to get popular. I made that mistake last week with DJ (where I ended up fading instead of doubling the field ownership) and I’m not doing it this week at a tournament where he’s dominated. Simpson has been playing well, and we can differentiate our lineups elsewhere with salary surplus and other more low-owned golfers. I’m locking him in in all formats.

Russell Henley (DK $10,100) – It’s easy to forget about Henley (I almost just did) even though he’s had success at Sea Island (with three straight top 10s) and has played well since the restart (9-for-9 with four top 10). He’s also tops in the field for SG:APP, our No. 1 focus stat.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,900) – This course seems to be well suited for Fitzpatrick’s game, though it’s the first time he’s played here. He’s going to hit fairways, make putts and score in the 60s in all four rounds. Maybe he’ll even win and then join the Sea Island Mafia.

Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Harris English

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Brian Harman (DK $8,500) – I like how Harman is trending from a safety perspective (top 30 finishes ion four straight, and 11 straight made cuts) and he’s a Sea Island resident with a T4 and a T14 at the RSM Classic. At this price, he’s got excellent top 10 upside.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,100) – Munoz, who finished third at the RSM last year, is playing pretty sharp golf right now. After finishing T8 in the 2020 FedExCup, he’s only made six straight cuts with four top 25s and a T19 at the Masters last week.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,600) – He loves the venue and feels like an excellent value in this mid-range. He could be a solid core player in cash games or even single- entry GPP.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $8,100) – Hughes is a little riskier than some of the other guys at this price point, but he won the RSM in 2016 and we know how hot this birdie-maker can get with the flatstick.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Based on the models, Gooch doesn’t do one thing particularly well, but he’s excellent across the board and finished T23 here last season, so he’ll make some of my GPP builds.

C.T. Pan (DK $7,900) – Perhaps the ultimate GPP play, Pan finished T7 at the Masters last week and has mixed in a T6 with a T13 (in 2016 & ’17) and a MC (2018) at the RSM. Driver isn’t a huge factor here and the price is very affordable.

Denny McCarthy (DK $7,700) – Don’t look his way in cash games, but feel free to deploy one of the tour’s best putters in tournaments. He stumbled out of the gate last year with a 71 on the Plantation course (but led the field in SG: P) en route to a T8 finish.

Also consider: Louis Oosthuizen, Corey Conners, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Ian Poulter, Doc Redman (GPP), Zach Johnson, Matthew Wallace, Alex Noren (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Austin Cook (DK $7,500) – I love this $7-8K price range and Cook headlines the value group right in the middle of it. He’s won here (2017), he’s 3-for-3 in made cuts and the podcast guys love him.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,500) – Reavie hits fairways and peppers flagsticks, though his scoring has been a little lackluster since a T3 at the Safeway in September. The T29 at Augusta should give him confidence.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner is on the short list of guys under $7,500 who could notch a win here, and he’ll be out to prove something after not qualifying for the Masters last week.

J.T. Poston (DK $7,300) – After three straight missed cuts at the RSM, Poston finished T14 last season and could be a low-owned GPP play with enough upside to make 2/10 of my linueps.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,100) – Norlander will be off most people’s radar, but he’s popping in my mixed models (second overall) and I’m going to have massive shares compared to the field. Norlander withdrew on Wednesday after testing positive for COVID-19.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,000) – He’s generating chatter among the WinDaily staff, is third in SG:APP in the field and finished T14 in his debut here last season. Good enough for me to use him in GPPs.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,800) – A brilliant putter who I rode to some solid finishes in the Shriners and at the Houston Open, Kizzire is still very cheap and has struck the ball well lately.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,800) – He let me down at the Masters and cost me a decent chunk of change by relegating a few of my would be 6/6 lineups into also-rans, but I’ll try again since he’s 3-for-3 at the RSM with a T6 in 2015 and T11 in 2018.

More value golfers to consider: Joel Dahmen, Matt Kuchar, Cameron Tringale, Emiliano Grillo, Tyler Duncan, Harry Higgs, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Tom Hoge (GPP), David Hearn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Hudson Swafford (DK $6,400) – Swafford is a member of the Sea Island Mafia and won as recently as the Corales in September. He’s just the type of sub-$7K player I want to target in GPPs to leave a few bucks on the table when I have a little over $7K to spend.

Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,400) –He’s notched two Top 10s in three years at the RSM but missed cuts in eight of his last nine tournaments will scare off the masses. A punt play for sure, but not without a “course horse” narrative.

Additional punts: Nick Watney, Chase Seifert, Jonathan Byrd, Jamie Lovemark

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship and giving you the picks to do it!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full but weak field of 154 Golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties
Defending Champ: Graeme McDowell (-18)
The course: Corales Puntacana Resort & Club (Punta Cana, DR)
Par 72: 7,650 yards
Smaller Paspalum greens similar to Florida swing
Seaside links-style course with inland front nine, easy-to-hit fairways
Wind can play a huge factor
- Four long par 5s
Focus Stat Categories: Birdie or Better %, Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bermuda), GIR

I’m going to keep the blurbs brief and to the point. I’ve plugged in some data into the mixed models and there’s a few GPP plays that really stand out this week.

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Will Zalatoris (DK $10,900) – He had a great week at the U.S. Open and was T6 behind some amazing golfers. Playing on a sponsor’s exemption this week, Zalatoris is my pick to win.

Corey Connors (DK $10,600) – The Canadian T2G sensation hits greens and ranks second and third in SG: OTT and SG: APP, respectively. He’s a great bet for a Top 15 even though he missed the cut here last year, but he’ll have to make some putts.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $10,300) – Another Canadian at the opposite end of the SG stat spectrum, Hughes has a great short game and sometimes fails OTT and with his approaches. He finished second here last year but I’d use him as a GPP play only.

Sam Burns (DK $10,100) – There will be scoring opportunities for this solid ball striker, and he’ll be going for the Par 5s in two. He finished 12th here last year and we could see improvement on that this season.

Adam Long (DK $9,900) – He shows up near the top of my model (fifth overall) and his only flaw is his weak tee game. I’m intrigued but a little bit scared.

Also consider: Denny McCarthy (GPP), Emiliano Grillo, Charles Howell III

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sepp Straka (DK $9,300) – Fourth overall in my model but first in my heart, I’m not passing up a chance to snag a low-owned Straka in a spot where he could notch his first PGA Tour win.

Pat Perez (DK $9,100) – Perez looks like a great fit for the course in the mixed model, and he’s usually pretty solid on the Florida swing, which correlates well here.

Luke List (DK $8,700) – List’s last really solid performance was a T10 at the Memorial, and he’s playing the course for the first time. But he’s a beast off the tee and can hit greens.

Patrick Rodgers (DK $8,000) – Nobody’s picking him to win, but I love the short game and SG: OTT stats, so I’m buying for his upside in GPPs.

Brice Garnett (DK $7,900) – Garnett loves the venue, notching a wire-to-wire win here in 2018, and will be happy to get back to a course that fits his style. He’ll likely be popular.

Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,700) – Vegas showed up in my model and finished T26 at Puntacana Resort last year. We can use the Venezuelan in any format.

Also consider: Thomas Detry, Kristoffer Ventura, Henrik Norlander, Adam Schenk, Kyle Styanley (GPP), Graeme McDowell, James Hahn

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,400) – The price seems a bit high considering his poor play recently, but the model loves him and e could get some big-time leverage in GPPs if he notches a top 15.

Peter Uihlein (DK $7,100) – This isn’t my favorite price range, but I’m willing to take a shot with Uihlein, who’s stat profile looks very similar to last year’s winner, Graeme McDowell.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,000) – Kizzire missed the cut at the Safeway but the long-but-inaccurate hitter could find refuge in the course’s wide fairways. He’s my favorite play at $7K or less.

More value golfers to consider: Beau Hossler, Vaughn Taylor, Hudson Swafford, Chase Seifert

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Graham DeLaet (DK $6,300) – He’s showing up at the top of my models and why that’s hard to explain, it’s going to get him in a few of my scrubs and studs GPP builds.

Jamie Lovemark (DK $6,300) – I’m interested only because of his ability to get hot with the putter and roll in a bunch of birdies. Another player who should benefit from the wider fairways and long Par 5s.

Additional punts: Roberto Diaz, Shawn Stefani (GPP), Sebastian Cappelen, Dominic Bozzelli

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: Safeway Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Safeway Open, helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

First event of new “season”
156 players in field
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
The course: North Course at Silverado Resort and Spa (Napa, CA)
Par 72: 7,203 yards – Johnny Miller design
Poa Annua Greens
Lots of slopes and bunkers, Redwood trees
- Formerly the Frys.com Open
- Defending champion: Cameron Champ (-17)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach & Off the Tee, Par 4s Gained (400-450), Driving Distance, Birdie or Better%

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Si Woo Kim (DK $10,800) – It’s a little curious to see Kim as the most expensive golfer in the field, especially since he’s lacking any real success at this venue, but he has been playing well lately (T13 at the PGA Championship and T3 at the Wyndham). I’m not sure I’ll be looking his way in large-field GPPs, but he’s 9-for-9 with four top 20s and makes for a cash game play if you’re seeking a cutmaker with some decent form.

Phil Mickelson (DK 10,600) – While it may be hilarious to see a Champions Tour golfer here in the top pricing tier, Phil is the second most expensive golfer and betting favorite for a reason: He loves California and he has some decent course history here. The wind is manageable this week and Phil can scramble if he misses the fairways and greens, making him a decent GPP play.

Brendan Steele (DK $10,000) – He won here in both 2016 and 2017, so he’ll be popular. While Steele struggled here in his last two appearances at the North Course, he did make the cut both times and is playing well (7-for-7 with three top 25s) since his poor showing at the Charles Schwab.

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,900) – I love the way Sergio still hits it off the tee and there’s still plenty of talent left in his tank. He putts extremely well on poa, so there’s not as much risk of a meltdown around the greens, and he’s got zero course history – the formula for a smashing GPP play.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $9,700) – For all the grief we give Grillo for his poor performance on the greens, he’s done better lately and can really string together some birdies if he’s competent with the flat stick. He’s also made four out of his last five cuts here and even won the event in 2015.

Also consider: Shane Lowry, Chez Reavie (cash), Joel Dahmen (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Brandt Snedeker (DK $9,300) – The best worst ball striker in the world, Sneds takes his circus show of missed cuts to the West Coast, and he even gets to putt on his preferred surface. He’s a fan of this venue, with 4-for-4 made cut and some impressive showings, including a playoff loss in 2018 and a pair of T17s. If his back is up to it, he show be okay this week.

Harold Varner (DK 9,100) – Varner is a happy-go-lucky PGA grinder who’s had a nice run in 2020, boasting some excellent stats along the way: 15th on TOUR in GIR, eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s also 5-for-5 with three top 20s at the North Course and will be a staple on my GPP lineups.

Cam Davis (DK 8,900) – The talented Australian heads back to the North Course for his third appearance at Silverado – where he posted a T17 in his debut in 2018. I can’t speak to his ability to win here, but he’s probably a solid cash game play (4-for-5 with two top 20s since the 3M).

Bud Cauley (DK 8,600) – I’d steer clear in cash games, but Cauley is just the type of golfer I’m looking for in GPPs. He’s made four straight cuts here (including a seventh-place finish in 2017) and the long odds (50-1) mean his ownership won’t get too high.

Mark Hubbard (DK 8,100) – Hubbard has made some leaderboard appearances in 2020 and actually finished among the Top 50 in the FedExCup – a run that included a T13 at this venue in 2019. We know Hubbard can go low, and this is one place where his skills should translate.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,800) – The South Africanhasn’t played here since his 2015 debut, when he finished tied for sixth place. The odds of him winning aren’t great (60-1), but his health and form indicate he’s perfectly capable of a Top 10 finish and paying off his sub-$8K salary.

Jim Furyk (DK $7,700) – Another “senior” who still makes appearance son the regular tour, I’ll never count out Furyk, who finished T17 here last season with the likes of Snedeker and Varner, among others. What he lacks in driving distance he makes up for in excellent touch around the greens and solid approaches with his irons.

Also consider: Kevin Streelman, Sam Burns, Henrik Norlander, Will Gordon (GPP), Lucas Glover, Luke List, Talor Gooch

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Cameron Tringale DK $7,500) – A feast-or-famine GPP player who usually miss the cut or finishes among the Top 30, Tringale has been relatively consistent at this venue, with 4-out-of-5 made cut and three straight finished in the Top 50. He could be ready for a breakthrough here, and nobody will be on him.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,300) – I’ve seen plenty ofdiscussion about McNealy’s roots in Napa, as the Stanford alum actually made his pro PGA tour debut at Silverado in 2017. He’s made the cut each time here without a significant finish, but his form has been decent and he’s capable of a Top 10 finish – good enough for us at this price point.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,200) – He’s a great guy and he finished with a Top 25 in his Safeway debut last season, so I still like Higgs for GPPs even if he’s not the best SG: APP golfer around. His odds to win are 80-1, which is kind of intriguing when you consider his SG: OTT numbers (35th on tour) and recent T11 (-14) at the Northern Trust.

Troy Merritt (DK $7,100) – He finished second to Richy Wrenski at the Barracuda Championship in nearby Truckee, CA and boasts some of the best Driving Acurcy numbers on tour. His elite putting numbers and impressive course history (T15 in 2016 & T4 in 2018) mean he’ll be on plenty of my GPP lineups.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,000) – As a rookie in 2019-20, he ranked fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting and led in average distance of putts made. Played his best out of the break with five top 25s across two tours.

Cameron Percy (DK $6,600) – He could be the best option under $7K considering his T7 finish here in 2019, and his game (along with almost all the Camerons, really) seems to fit this course.

Also consider: Charley Hoffman (GPP) Sepp Straka (GPP), Brice Garnett, Xinjun Zhang (GPP), J.B. Holmes (GPP) Chesson Hadley

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Zac Blair (DK $6,400) – The options in this range are pretty awful, with almost no success among the golfers remaining, but Blair finished tied for 4th place here last year with Charles Howell III and Justin Thomas, so he’s at least capable of a Top 20. But please don’t go overboard on a guy who’s only made about half of the cuts in the past season, though.

Additional GPP punts: Aaron Baddeley, Brian Gay, Hank Lebioda

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: Northern Trust at TPC Boston

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Northern Trust Open helping you find some winning teams in DraftKings GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller tournament field of 124 Golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
Stacked playoff field
The course: TPC Boston
Par 71: 7,308 yards – Arnold Palmer design and Gil Hanse/Brad Faxon redesign
Penn 4-A Bentgrass Greens (Bentgrass fairways as well)
Smaller-than-average greens
- Favorable weather expected, so no major imbalance in the draw
- First time Northern Trust is at TPC Boston, so course history should be for Dell Technologies, which has been hosted at this course
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Fairways Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Birdie or Better %, SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bentgrass)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,100) – Longer hitters tend to fare well here, and Bryson actually notched a victory on this course in 2018 at the Dell Technologies. Without too much penal rough to stymie Bryson if he misses fairways with his accurate blasting approach, Bryson – who may be the best putter among the highest priced players as well – makes for the best high-priced GPP play with winning upside.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,800) – Rory has good course history at TPC Boston, and while he’s playing sub-par golf in comparison to his lofty standards (and the rest of the expensive guys), this should be a comfy place to rebound – as it plays to all his strengths. I may even try to squeeze in a few Rory/Bryson teams with all the capable golfers in the $6,000 to 6,500 range.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,000) – Another top performer with winning upside, Rahm could easily win this thing if he’s firing on all cylinders. Solid ball-striking and a complete short game mean he’s one of my favorite plays in any format.

Also consider: Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Jason Day (DK $9,300) – Day’s ball striking, putting and overall game look like he’s returning to his form from a few years back, and he’s a great play in all formats. A world-class player with a great attitude, he’s bound to be popular – but I just can’t fade him.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay’s past few tournaments have been marred by poor putting and usually one bad round thrown into the mix. He chekcs all the boxes, so if he can get the putts to roll in, he makes for a great play in single-entry and large-field GPPs.

Patrick Reed $9,000) – He’s definitely going to be popular, so he fits best in cash games – but there’s definitely enough upside to go all-in with him here since he’s striking the ball pretty well.

Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – Finau’s tee-to-green numbers(10th on tour) are excellent this season, and like Bryson, his tendency to mis fairways shouldn’t burn him too badly here. A solid shot at a Top 10 and plenty of winning upside, and one of the only options I really like in the $8-9K range.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $8,000) – The missed cut at the PGA could keep his ownership low, but we all know how good this guy is. Normally the Englishman in this price range I’m most intrigued by is Matthew Fitzpatrick, but he might struggle here as a first-timer. Hatton is a better ball striker and he finished T12 in 2018 at his TPC Boston debut. At just $8K, he’s going to be hard for me to avoid.

Matthew Wolff (DK $7.900) – The talent and competitiveness of Wolff make him a plausible GPP play with winning upside, but I’d likely stay away from him in cash games, because it’s his first go-round in Boston.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,600) – A few weeks ago, I wouldn’t have considered Champ, but a closer look at his improved play around the greens makes me take notice.

Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash) Tiger Woods (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Paul Casey, Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Harris English

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – He feels super risky even with the price drop, but Lowry has the game to finish in the Top 15 or so and continue his playoff dreams. A tough competitor who won’t have to deal with bad weather this week, the Irishman will be among my GPP value plays.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner looks like a much better player every week, and he seems to be getting used to competing against the best. Another guy who is often plagued by one or two bad rounds putting, Varner could be ready to make the jump and stick around for a few playoff weeks.

Doc Redman (DK $7,400) – Redman is rolling lately in the SG: Ball Striking category, and he’s maturing with his short game. There’s clear upside in his game and the mustache seems to be working its magic.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – Leishman plays well in stronger fields and has some recently impressive course history (third place in 2017, T21 in 2018), so he’s a solid GPP wild card.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,000) – With more top 10 upside and ball-striking ability than many of the other players in this price range, Niemann is a risky pick but could play well here if his putter doesn’t completely abandon him.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,200) – Another solid ball-striker, Hadwin will make a few of my Rory/Bryson builds so I can find some value in this $7K range. He’s Canadian, so the switch back to Bentgrass should help.

Bud Cauley (DK $6,600) – Among this group of players who’ve fared poorly in stronger fields or have seen their game evaporate in recent months, Cauley stands out as a confident player who could fare well at this venue.

More value golfers to consider: Matt Kuchar (Cash), Ryan Palmer (Cash), Joel Dahmen, Max Homa (GPP), Emiiano Grillo (GPP) Kevin Na (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes,

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Talor Gooch (DK $6,500) – He’s a birdie maker with some GPP upside, but the competition makes for tougher sledding. Still – he’s one of the safer options in this depressed price range, so he’s a great choice for all kinds of builds.

Sepp Straka (DK $6,300) – Straka is hitting more greens this year and making more birdies. He’s a risky play (and he missed the cut last week) but we’ve seen him step up his game and the switch back to Bentgrass should help his putting.

Additional GPP punts: Rory Sabbatini, Pat Perez, Charley Hoffman, Matt Jones, Matthew NeSmith

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: Rocket Mortgage Classic

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

The PGA DFS pricing is a little tight again this week if you’re trying to fit in a couple $10K+ guys, so we’ve got a big list for you to choose from.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full tournament field of 156 golfers, but less field strength than past two weeks
Field features just two out of the WGR Top 10 – Webb Simpson and Patrick Reed
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
The course: Detroit Golf Club
7,340 yards, Par 72 – Donald Ross design
Bentgrass Greens
Other Ross designs (Pinehurst No. 2, Oak Hill & more could be a good indicator)
Defending champ: Nate Lashley (-25…WOW!)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach (and SG: Tee to Green on Ross designs); Opportunities Gained, Par 4s Gained, Eagles Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,700) – Beefy (and snacky!) Bryson is the betting favorite, but the irons failed him a bit last week and I might get more shares of the guys who are just a little cheaper.

Webb Simpson (DK $11,000) – Webb’s last start was an impressive victory, and he’s second in my model after Viktor Hovland. I won’t go overboard but I’ll be fine coming in around (or a little over) the field ownership rate in multi-entry GPPs.

Tyrell Hatton (DK 10,700) – I have a good feeling about T2G monster Hatton turning this golden opportunity into another Top 5 finish, and he’s got the chops on Par 4s (and on the greens) to win. Giddyup.

Patrick Reed (DK $10,500) – Reed is never super-popular and I think he’s starting to heat up, shooting 64 on Sunday at the Travelers. He’s a great GPP play with winning upside.

Victor Hovland (DK $10,000) – This could be the week to go way overboard on Hovland and double the field ownership percentage in GPPs. The price jump may scare folks off but the field is weak and he’s just getting better and better since resuming play.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama,Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Tony Finau (DK $9,300) – I’ve been burned by a popular Tony Finau before, but he’s got ten straight rounds under par and I’m going right back to the well with him on a Par 4-heavy course he should be able to dominate.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,000) – This is Scottie’s type of event – from the field strength to the focus stat categories. He’s fifth in my model rankings this week and the MC last week will keep his ownership low.

Rory Sabbatini (DK $8,800) – Sabbatini (T14 and T21 in his last two starts) is a pretty good iron player who has an excellent chance of making the cut, and sometimes he gets hot and into low numbers because of his consistent scoring opportunities. The Aussie is 18th in my model this week and could work for cash games as well.

J.T. Poston (DK $8,700) – Throw out last week and focus on what JT does best – eat up Par 4s and excel T2G on Ross designs. A snazzy putter and excellent GPP play who could be a difference-maker.

Doc Redman (DK $8,500) – He’s getting more popular and the word is out about his wonderful ball striking, and he’s 3-for-3 since the break with a pair of Top 25s. Fade him at your own risk.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $8,300) – Solid all-around game, and the first-timer designation isn’t an issue with so many playing this track for the first time.

Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,900) – He’ll likely be popular at this price (way too low) and the pop stroke could work well here again. He’s just got to avoid the big numbers.

Also consider: Bubba Watson, Lucas Glover, Erik Van Rooyen, Adam Hadwin, Maverick McNealy

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Scott Stallings (DK $7,500) – Scott Stallings isn’t a name that normally inspires confidence, but he’s popping in my models and he’s coming off a big T6 at the Travelers.

Will Gordon (DK $7,300) – I’m a believer in making the most of opportunities and talent, and that’s been a great combo for Gordon. There’s a shot at a letdown but we’ve seen stories like this before.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,100) – Stanley should have notched a Top 10 last week before the putter went cold, and he’s just too valuable at this price to pass up.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,100) – The Colombian gives himself chances and last week’s MC was a disappointment for a guy with such great ball-striking ability. The price is right for the upside in GPPs.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100) – I’ve said it many times, if Grillo can get hot with the putter, he’s got a chance to win. He’s tops in the field for both SG: APP and Opportunities Gained.

Tyler Duncan (DK $7,000) – Two solid rounds sandwiching two so-so ones got him a T32 finish last week, and I like him to make the cut and finish in the Top 40 or so again. Worth a look.

Tom Hoge (DK $7,000) – He’s got an outside shot at a Top 20 here after a T37 last week and solid numbers in SG:APP and overall.

Cameron Tringale (DK $6,600) – Tringale finished T5 here last year, he’s super cheap, and he’s easily one of my favorite options this week for value. Homeboy checks all the boxes and got a start under his belt last week, even if he missed the cut.

More value golfers forGPPs: Joseph Bramlett, Brian Stuard, Mark Hubbard, Peter Uihlein, HarryHiggs, Matthew Wolff, Chesson Hadley, Andrew Putnam

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – Eighth in my model and the weaker field should be les of an intimidator on Thursday and Friday. We need some cheap guys to make the cut and get hot, and he’s one.

Josh Teator (DK $6,400) – Another punt from my mixed model cheatsheet, Teator is an all-or-nothing type player who misses cuts (he made it here last year) or finishes well. Don’t go overboard – he’s worth a look in 5-7 percent of GPPs.

Tyler McCumber (DK $6,300) – Purely a gut play because of decent ball-striking/approach numbers and a golden opportunity here.

I know I’m crazy for considering: Wes Bryan (DK $6,500), Jonathan Byrd (DK $6,100), Roger Sloan (DK $6,200)

Thanks for checking this article PGA DFS Picks for the Rocket Mortgage Classic! Make sure to hop in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat and look out for more articles on WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA Picks: The Travelers Championship DFS

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA Picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Travelers Championship DFS and helping you find some winning teams! DraftKings is offering new users a FREE entry to the Milli Maker by depositing into your account!

The Travelers Championship DFS Course Notes:

Full, stacked tournament field of 152 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
The course: TPC River Highlands
6,841 yards, Par 70 – Pete Dye redesign
Small Bentgrass/Poa Greens
Just two (2) par 5 holes
Bubba Watson is a three-time winner
Defending champ: Chez Reavie
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450; Proximity 125-150 & 150-175; SG: Putting (Poa)

ADDITIONAL NOTE ON DK PRICING: Pricing has gotten considerably more difficult this week, so if you plan on rostering a couple of the 9500 and up golfers, you’re going to need some gems in the $6-7K range.

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,200) – Rory’s engine has been idling a bit since returning to action, but he’s always a threat and the enormous price could keep folks off him this week. He’s still third overall in my models and doesn’t need a narrative to win here.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – Thomas sits atop my rankings this week and I’ll be using him in about half of my teams despite a lack of Top Ten finishes at this venue. His Strokes Gained: Approach numbers and Proximity from the 125-175 range mean he’ll be getting plenty of scoring opportunities.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,500) – He’s fresh off a win at the Heritage and has three Top 15s at the Travelers since 2011. Simpson is also popping on my models, ranking second overall between JT and Rory.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,800) – The main concern with Cantlay is rust, since he hasn’t played an event since mid-February. He’s sporting two T15 finishes in his two tries at TPC River Highlands in 2018 and 2019.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,600) – Schauffele’s course history is lacking (T14 in 2017 and MC in 2018), and his play at Harbour Town was spotty, so this is more of a “trust the models” tournament play. He’s a more dangerous player when he’s off the radar anyway.

Also consider: BrysonDeChambeau, Jon Rahm (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,100) – Morikawa finished 36th last year in his first try and seems like a good fit for this course. He’s on my radar in both cash and GPP.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,000) – The form is magnificent and he’s sporting some obscenely good numbers with his approaches, but he still hasn’t broken through. I expect Ancer to be popular but I use him a lot and if I didn’t here – and he won – I’d lose my mind.

Paul Casey (DK $8,900) – A true horse for the course, Casey has never finished worse than T17 in five tries here and has four Top 5s. He’s had a couple tough second-place losses (in 2015 and 2018) but the memories can’t be that bad.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Woodland goes through rough stretches but usually rights the ship quickly, and his iron game seems more refined since the break. I’ll take another crack in the hopes that his putter gets hot.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,900) – Niemann looked great last week and this course (where he debuted with a T5 last season) demands of the short irons as well.

Brian Harman (DK $7,600) – Harman sports a third-place finish at River Highlands (2015) and has been inside the top 10 here the past two years. He’s also in the top 30 of my mixed condition model and won’t break the bank at just $7,600.

Also consider: Sungjae Im, JordanSpieth, Tony Finau, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Marc Leishman

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,400) – The results here speak for themselves, and I can’t imagine he’ll be over 10% owned.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,300) – Reavie won here last year and he cracks the Top 60 in my model. He’s got a strong T2G game but makes for a risky GPP play.

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,900) – His putting numbers on Bentgrass/Poa are excellent and he’s a solid off-the-radar play with plenty of upside.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,800) – I’m a little worried about two MCs in two tries here, but he fares well in my models and should be very low-owned. GPP only.

Russell Knox (DK $6,700) – He’s missed six straight cuts dating back to early February but I’ll give him a shot as a value play in 1/10 GPPs for his ballstriking/approach numbers.

More value golfers forGPPs: Corey Conners, Harold Varner, Jim Furyk, Ryan Moore, Danny Lee, DocRedman, Matthew NeSmith, Stewart Cink

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,500) – I can’t get off playing this guy, who keeps showing up on early leaderboards and in my models. If only he could put together three or four rounds.

Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – Hoge is cheap, he’s inexplicably ranked fourth overall in my model (between Rory and Cantlay) and he’s tops in the field for Par 4 efficiency (400-450).

Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,300) – Grillo has many flaws, the main one being his horrendous putting, but his SG: APP numbers jump off the page.

Adam Long (DK $6,300) – Among the Top 25 in my models, we’ve seen stellar play from Long on occasion, and he finished T21 in his debut here last season.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,200) – Like Grillo and Byeong Hun An, his putting is his fatal flaw. But the ball-striking is amazing. GPP only.

Cameron Percy (DK $6,200) – A super longshot play, Percy might not crack over 1 percent ownership. But the models say he could play well and he’s made 3/3 (initial) cuts here.

Thanks for checking out this article on The Travelers Championship DFS! Make sure to enjoy more Golf DFS info over at WinDailySports.com/Golf. You can also hop into our Expert Discord Chat to discuss your lineups one on one with our DFS pros.

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: The Arnold Palmer Invitational

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Invite-only, stacked tournament field of 121 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
The course: Bay Hill
7,454 yards, Par 72 – Dick Wilson design w/Arnold Palmer redesign
TifEagle Bermuda greens (fast) and Celebration Bermuda fairways
Plenty of water (in play on half the holes)
Much easier than PGA National (Three of last five winners at -17 or better)
Defending champ: Francesco Molinari (2019)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; Par 4 efficiency (450-500), Par 5 Efficiency (550-600); Proximity (200+; Opportunities Gained; Birdie or Better%; Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,800, FD $12,200) – Rory is the tourneyfavorite and a former API champion who’s been playing some of the best golf ofhis career with six straight Top 5 finishes. The world No. 1 is also 5-for-5 atBay Hill with a sub-70 scoring average in 20 rounds. He’ll obviously bepopular, but I can’t support a fade.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,600,FD $11,600) – Matsuyama has excellent tee-to-green numbers andranks highly in my model despite a lackluster course history that’s missing aTop 5. He’s been playing solid golf lately (five Top 10s in his last 10 starts)and this could be the year he finally breaks through.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,400, FD $11,700) – The bulkier Bryson will be a popular pick this week, but he’s got the game to dominate here and hasn’t missed a cut in three tries – his best finish a solo second coming in 2018. The longer holes are less of a problem now that he’s acquired some extra distance, and he’s notched top 15 finishes in six of his last eight tournaments.

Brooks Koepka (DK $9,200, FD $11,400) – He’s likely to be low-owned (terrible course history, MC at the Honda Classic) but is emerging in my mixed model (No. 3 overall after Rory and Hideki) as a golfer to target despite his struggles. Koepka loves playing against the best in the world, and actually struck the ball okay last week but fell victim (like so many others) to a fickle golf course that rattled more than a few cages. The greens here this week will more resemble what golfers face at Augusta and at U.S. Open venues, so I’m buying.

Patrick Reed (DK $9,400, FD $11,100) – Reed may struggle with 200+ approaches and long par 3s, but those are the only focus stat categories that give me pause. The rest of his game is a solid fit and he’s notched a Top 10 here (2018) in two appearances (T50 last season). Reed may be a golf villain, but he’s a PGA DFS darling.

Also consider: Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler

Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brooks Koepka should be solid PGA DFS pick this week based on the player efficiencies that come into play at Bay Hill.

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Tony Finau (DK $8,900, FD $10,700) – He’s still looking for a victory on a full-field PGA event (we won the Puerto Rico Open in 2016 in a playoff and is 0-2 since (losing in stunning fashion to Webb Simpson a month ago in Phoenix). But Finau excels on long Par 4s and 5s, has solid SG: APP and 200+ approach numbers, and could see lower ownership this week since he skipped the Honda Classic.

Henrik Stenson (DK $8,800, FD $10,500) – We can’t really call Stenson a sleeper pick, but he’s been largely off the radar since winning the Hero World Challenge in December. A superb ball-striker who checks a lot of the boxes we’re looking for at Bay Hill, he’s had a couple Top 5 finishes here.

Byeong Hun An (DK $8,700, FD $10,300) – Once again, we’re relying on An’s elite ball-striking, and we can take something from his continued improvement at this event. We know that putting well and making the cut are the biggest challenges for him, but he’s good enough tee-to-green to avoid some of the landmines (long rough, water) and get himself into position for the weekend.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,500, FD $10,200) – I love this guy. He finished second here last year after missing the cut in 2018 and a couple of decent finishes (T27 in 2016, T13 in 2017) the previous two seasons. The models don’t show as much love for Fitzpatrick, but course history and cut-making are drawing me in once again in GPPs.

Tyrell Hatton (DK $8,100, FD $9,900) – Hatton is quite affordable this week and if he can keep his head on straight, he could relive some of the glory from his Top 5 finish in 2017. He doesn’t excel in one area but overall is the 20th ranked golfer on my models. I like the price, the form, and the upside.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) – Hovland made the cut here last season in his debut (T40) and now has a PGA Tour victory under his belt. He’s also the fourth-ranked golfer in my mixed model and puts himself in a great position to score well. Throw out last week’s MC on a brutal golf course and you get a fine bargain for just $8K on DraftKings.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,700, FD $9,400) – Scheffler is making his debut at Bay Hill but his game suits this course very well, sporting Top 20 marks in Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better, Par 4s (450-500), Par 5s (550-600) and even long Par 3s (200-225). I’ll have shares in all formats, and I’m considering putting him in my single-entry lineup core.

Also consider: Marc Leishman, Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Max Homa, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Ian Poulter

Just because they are not in the Top 25 on my mixed model, does not mean they won’t fare well in the API. This 26-50 range has plenty of golfers to target.

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,500, FD $9,400) – We’re getting a sizeable discount on Niemann and he’s one of many attractive golfers in the $6,500 to $7,500 range this week. He’s has a couple of MCs in his last two starts but he ranks highly in my mixed model (No. 11 overall with an emphasis on SG: APP) and this venue suits him well.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,400, FD $9,100) – Moore had a Top 5 here in 2018 and is worth a look in large-field GPPs for his Strokes Gained numbers.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,400, FD $8,800) – McNealy turned a few heads last week and has some impressive finishes among his last four tourneys (T11, T27, T5, T5). He’s solid around the greens and has greatly improved his ball-striking in 2020.

Harold Varner (DK $7,100, FD $8,300) – A GPP-only play who excels on 200+ yard approaches (No. 1 in the field), Varner has made his last two cuts and should come in well under 10% ownership.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,100, FD $8,700) – Ortiz is 2-for-2 at Bay Hill and we could see a breakthrough week for the Mexican native who fares well on long Par 4s. Work him in a few of your builds.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100, FD $8,000) – Grillo has many flaws, but his SG: APP numbers are good and he’s sixth on the field for Opportunities Gained. He’s hard to trust but is 3-for-3 here (including a T7 in 2017) despite missing the event in 2019.

Tom Hoge (DK $7,000, FD $8,000) – Hoge is cheap, he’s ranked just outside the Top 25 in my mixed model, and he’d made five straight cuts before his MC at the Honda last week.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,900, FD $8,600) – Munoz is making his API debut but is popping on my mixed model as the No. 6 golfer overall. If you believe in data, he should make the cut and emerge as a viable Top 25 candidate with Top 10 upside. He’s a risk-reward GPP play I’ll have big shares of this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700, FD $7,900) – Another talented young player who can get hot and spike a Top 20 finish despite the cheap price tag, Higgs can help you fit in some elite golfers like Rory and DeChambeau without the risk of the other sub-$7K longshots.

More value golfers for GPPs: Lucas Glover, Scott Piercy, Charles Howell, Corey Conners, Rory Sabbatini, Adam Long, Lanto Griffin, Mark Hubbard, Matt Wallace, Doc Redman

Once we get outside the Top 50, were looking at GPP-only plays with some flaws in their game.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The Honda Classic at PGA National

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Honda Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

The first stop on Florida Swing
Full tournament field of 144 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
The course: PGA National (Palm Beach Gardens)
- 7,125 yards, Par 70 – Tom Fazio design w/multiple Jack Nicklaus renovations
- Bermuda greens (average speed) and fairways
- Lots of water (in play on 15 holes), normally features high wind speeds (up to 15-20 MPH)
- Tough layout (15-17 most difficult stretch known as “Bear Trap”
Defending champ: Keith Mitchell (2019)
Focus Stat Categories: GIR; Bogey Avoidance; Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Around the Green; SG: Ball Striking, Scrambling; Par 5 scoring; Par 4 efficiency (400-450), Proximity (150-200)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rickie Fowler (DK $10,800, FD $11,700) – Rickie needs to avoid the big number this week, and that probably comes down to his ball-striking – a strength in the past that’s seen diminishing effectiveness thus far in 2020. He’s one of the world’s best putters and he’s a former winner here (2017) who seems to fare well on Florida tracks.

Gary Woodland (DK $10,300, FD$11,300) – Woodlandplayed well last week and now returns home to Florida and his favorite surface –Bermuda. He’s a solid bet to win at 20-1 odds and makes lots of sense for GPPssince he’s only had one Top 5 finish here in four tries. I’ll be starting a fewstars/scrubs teams with Fowler and Woodland.

Justin Rose (DK $9,900, FD $11,400) – The Englishman plays well in wind but has limited experience here. I’m not expecting much ownership but digging deeper shows that he checks the boxes here with his Strokes Gained stats and has had a week to clear his head after a woeful T56 at the Genesis.

Billy Horschel (DK $9,200, FD $10,900) – Horschel has two MCs here in his last five appearances, which could help keep his ownership down. He’s a grinder who loves Bermuda and the data shows favorable results in his SG categories – which are a huge part of contending here. Like Fowler, he needs to avoid the big number and navigate the Bear Trap without making an “other.”

Also consider: Tommy Fleetwood,Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Byeong Hun An (DK $8,800, FD $10,500) – An’s ball-striking is his biggest strength, and the Bermuda surfaces are a much better fit for him than poa annua. His fate resides in how he performs with the flat stick – which has dictated his previous finishes (fifth in 2018, T36 in 2019). My ownership will be way ahead of the field, even if he gets chalky.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,700, FD $10,100) – Niemann doesn’t have much course history aside from a tepid T59 finish here last season, but he’s a talented ball-striker who could be this week’s Erik Van Rooyen.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,100, FD $9,300) – Schwartzel loves to play tough golf courses, and he’s got a Green Jacket to show for it. He’s got a solid track record at PGA National and his overall game has been rounding into form.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,000, FD $10,000) – He’s coming off a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open, and conditions there last week should resemble what the golfers are dealing with in Florida a lot more than the West Coast Swing.

Luke List (DK $8,000, FD $9,600) – We’ve talked about some of the ups and downs to List’s career before, and while he’s not cheap this week, price is just one of the factors that could keep his GPP ownership low – the other being an MC here in 2019 after (T10-T52-2 in 2016-2018).

Wyndham Clark (DK $7,600, FD $9,600) – Clark ranks well in Bogey Avoidance and checks most of the boxes this week coming off three straight made cuts. He’s one of my favorite plays under $8K and I’ll be flirting with 50% ownership in GPPs.

Also consider: Daniel Berger, J.T.Poston, Ian Poulter, Ryan Palmer, Harris English, Russell Knox, Jhonattan Vegas

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Russell Henley (DK $7,400, FD $8,800) – Henley’s played better here every year following his MC in 2016 (he won here in 2014) and is coming off a T17 at the Genesis. He’s a decent wind player and has also won at the Sony Open, which is another shorter track that sees its share of wind. Henley is a huge risk but could be turning the thing around after a slew of MCs earlier in the season.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,200, FD $9,100) – He’s got a solid track record at PGA National with a T4 last year and continued improvement each and every time he’s teed it up here (three straight Top 25s in the Honda Classic). He’s about 75-1 but could win here. I’ll be overweight on my GPP ownership and he’s even usable in cash games.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – I really like his chances for a Top 10 this week following a T6 in Puerto Rico, mainly because he hits greens (T14 in GIR this season) and seems poised for a solid debut here.

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (DK $7,000, FD $8,500) – Lee didn’t seem too flummoxed by PGA National in his 2019 debut when he finished T7 with Wyndham Clark, and his stats in GIR and Par 4 scoring make him a great bargain.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,200, FD $8,600) – Gooch is a cut-making machine this year (10 straight) and he’s fared well at some difficult tracks, including a T10 at Riviera in the Genesis. His T20 last season points to a level of growing comfort at this venue (MC in 2018).

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,700, FD $7,800) – Burgoon is my sub-$7K wild card and someone who has navigated the Bear Trap surprisingly well over the years (10 rounds without a bogey). It’s not a catch-all stat, but it’s something to note among the dirt-cheap longshots.

More value golfers forGPPs: Sam Burns, Matt Wallace, Chesson Hadley, Nick Watney, MichaelThompson, Doc Redman, Peter Malnati

Other bargain golfers makingtheir debut at PGA National who could finish among the Top 25: Harry Higgs, Kurt Kitayama,Matthew Wolff, Maverick McNealy

4 years ago 0 comment

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Emiliano Grillo

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

The Travelers Championship DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

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