Tag:

Drew Brees

Week 12 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 4 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct QB on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

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Week 12 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Russell Wilson, SEA @ PHI

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,200)

Russell Wilson is dominating so far this season and is one of the MVP favorites. Wilson is averaging 274 yards through the air and Philadelphia is one of the middle-area passing defenses. The Eagles’ secondary is full of question marks and Wilson leads the league in touchdown passes (23) and tied for the lowest amount of interceptions by a starting quarterback (2). The Eagles are great against the run so expect Wilson to have an increased amount of attempts and continue dominating opposing defenses.

Kyle Allen, CAR @ NO

DK ($5,200) FD ($6,600)

Coming off of his worst game as a professional, Kyle Allen is looking for retribution. He already has a solid performance against the Saints from 2018. The Saints this season have been vulnerable to deep passes as they have given up eight passes of 40+ yards. Expect around 285 yards and a couple of touchdowns for Allen with the threat of Christian McCaffrey in the backfield taking up most of the defensive attention.

Jeff Driskel, DET @ WAS

DK ($5,500) FD ($7,300)

Jeff Driskel has played great in his two games this season against Chicago and Dallas. Going up against a subpar defense, Driskel should be the quarterback you target the most. Washington allows opposing quarterbacks 71.4 percent of passes, which leads the NFL. They also struggle to get to the quarterback as they are tied for the eighth-fewest sacks.

Week 12 Quarterback GPP Plays

Baker Mayfield, MIA vs CLE

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,500)

Baker Mayfield should have a field day against the Miami Dolphins. He has been heating up since Week 8. The Dolphins have just 13 sacks this season and have given up 23 passing touchdowns so far this season. Expect Mayfield to have upper-20s in completions with a lot of yardage. This should be the game that Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry both have great games, which makes Baker even more intriguing.

Drew Brees, NO @ CAR

DK ($6,600) FD ($8,500)

In the three games since returning from his injury, Brees is averaging 296 yards with six touchdowns. The Carolina Panthers are a middle-tier passing defense ranking in the low-teens in important statistical categories. With the weapons that Drew Brees has at his disposal, expect another huge statistical game with 30-plus completions.

Matt Ryan, TB vs ATL

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,900)

Ryan is averaging 27 completions and 296 yards through the air. Tampa Bay’s passing defense isn’t good either as they give up the third-most completions and the second-most yards per game at 290.9. His 7.6 yards per attempt is also a huge reason why he should be in your lineup. The passing game of Atlanta with the subpar passing defense of Tampa has all the stars aligning for Matty Ice.

Week 12 Quarterback Fades

Josh Allen, DEN vs BUF

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,800)

Josh Allen isn’t a productive quarterback so far this season, with a 60.3 completion percentage. That ranks him tied for 42nd of all quarterbacks to have a pass attempt this season. Being behind Andy Dalton, Eli Manning and Mitchell Triubisky is not a good sign of accuracy. The Denver Broncos allows the fifth-fewest passing yards at 210 yards per game. He can have a decent game but nothing special, especially for the price Allen is demanding. He doesn’t turn the ball over but isn’t accurate enough to be on your DFS team.

Mitchell Trubisky, NYG vs CHI

DK ($5,100) FD ($7,000)

Trubisky’s price is low enough where I feel he could be a value option but my head is saying no chance. His season-high is 253 yards, which is pedestrian in today’s NFL. The New York Giants are coming off their bye week and the Bears will look to run the ball often as they run 40 percent of their plays. Too much of a risk to take Trubisky on this slate.

Tom Brady, DAL vs NE

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,700)

Tom Brady is not having a great year, especially by his own standards. He has not reached 300 yards passing since Week 6. He looked lost at times against the Philadelphia Eagles last week and the Dallas Cowboys have a better defense. Wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett look as if they will be ready for the game on Sunday, which limits how well he can do without many threats.

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Matt Ryan over 304.5 yards and Jameis Winston under 300.5 yards

Matt Ryan is averaging 296 yards per game and the Buccaneers have the second-worst passing defense in the NFL. Jameis Winston is coming off an ankle sprain and the Atlanta Falcons give up 107 yards on the ground. It’s difficult to see Tampa not run the ball, especially with how they average 31 minutes on offense a game.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Picks (Week 12)

Jason Mezrahi 4 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

Watch below to find out How to Build Your Lineup for NFL DFS Week 12!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb8nwj5ywDo

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Get Ready To Win Sunday

We are set up for some great games for NFL DFS Week 12 players. Whether you are playing cash games or GPPs, there is value all across the board, so make sure you focus your approach on utilizing the best players with the highest projected ceilings, especially in tournaments.

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4 years ago 0 comment

NFL DFS Week 12 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & BCW

Brandon C. Williams 4 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

The NFL DFS Week 12 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & BCW focuses on DFS Pro Javi’s big weekend that brought him to the brink of very long green (think millions). The two also embark upon being the first wave to attack what will be a brutal Week 12 main slate.

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Week 12 NFL DFS With DFS Pro Javi & BCW

Among the other topics DFS Pro Javi & BCW discuss in the Week 12 Podcast is whether Eagles QB Carson Wentz is a good play following a frustrating Week 11 matchup against the Patriots, when is a good time to back away from Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey and if we have seen the end of Tom Brady as a Fantasy-viable option.

The duo also looks at how Raiders-Jets could be DFS gold and the challenge that will come from finding good plays in a schedule lacking in quality DFS matchups. DFS Pro Javi & BCW also talk about how Cowboys-Patriots is a must avoid game.

Thank you for listening to the NFL DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Week Eight Injury Analysis

Edwin Porras 5 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Week Eight is almost upon us. which is definitely reflected in the long list of player injuries to break down in the DFS Week Eight Injury Analysis. There won’t be much time for messing around on this one, so I’ll get right to it.

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Drew Brees

As I mentioned earlier in the week Brees’ thumb surgery was a mere five weeks ago, and he just initiated practice on Wednesday. These practices were limited in nature and of course the team remains on the fence in terms of his chances of playing. Although there’s definitely a chance Brees plays tomorrow, I’m not entirely convinced they bring him back with a 6-1 record as a favorite over the Cardinals with a bye on the horizon in Week Nine. Lastly, this was a contact injury that theoretically could be re-injured if brought back too soon. I would be surprised if Brees is active.

Alvin Kamara

Kamara is dealing with a couple of different injuries of his knee and ankle. It is reportedly a high ankle sprain, which on its own can take some time to heal. Despite his limited practices this week I’m using similar logic to Brees’ status when it comes to Kamara: Given the overall state of the team and a bye in Week Nine, why risk playing him at all? Even if he’s active, with a $7,600 price tag on DraftKings, I’m staying away as he’ll likely be limited in either work or physical capacity.

Keenan Allen

Allen popped up Wednesday on the injury report with a hamstring strain and has not practiced since then. The Chargers have said that he is a game time decision but also said he would be limited in snaps if active. With the knowledge that hamstring strains can limit players for one to three games and the suggestion that he could be on a snap count (if active at all) does not give me confidence to play Allen at $6,400 on DraftKings.

Matt Ryan

Ryan returned to practice in a limited capacity on Friday following a pretty gruesome ankle injury last Sunday. It seems the quarterback avoided catastrophe as the dreaded grade II high ankle sprain would have held him out indefinitely. Considering that Ryan isn’t exactly Michael Vick in the pocket, I would still expect him to put up respectable passing numbers but would only use him in tournaments if active.

David Johnson

There is one thing that is clear about the Arizona Cardinals and that is their penchant for keeping player injuries mainly under wraps. They demonstrated those characteristics in their handling of David Johnson over the last two weeks and with his teammate, Christian Kirk, one month ago. Ultimately, D.J. did not practice all week and the Cardinals made two depth signings at running back to boot. I don’t expect Johnson to be active, but even if he is, can you trust him against the stout Saints defense with an ankle injury?

Christian Kirk

Week Eight marks the first shot that Kirk has at playing following his high ankle injury from Week Four. However, he continued to be limited in practice, which is a bit concerning given the time frame. Additionally, the game-time decision did not end with him being activated in Week Seven. Overall, if Kirk is active, I want to see him perform before using him in cash games. I might consider him in a few tournament plays though at only $4,700 in a game the Cardinals are expected to be down in.

Davante Adams

Unfortunately the DFS Week Eight Injury Analysis does not include much optimism regarding Adams’ status. I think we’re still a week away on Adams, but he definitely has a chance to return as Sunday marks 31 days since the turf toe injury. Typically grade II sprains last from four to six weeks. Check back with me to be certain.

Josh Jacobs

I expect Jacobs to be active as the primary limiting factor in shoulder injuries (that are not unstable) for a running back is pain. And whether we agree with the practice reports or not, the Raiders are likely to “shoot him up” prior to their game on Sunday if it is still bothering him.

Tyrell Williams

Williams will make his long awaited return as the Raiders’ number one receiver against a depleted Texans secondary. Additionally, Williams has no competition for targets (aside from Darren Waller) in a game they are expected to lose. I don’t mind Williams as a tournament play this week.

Thanks again for reading the DFS Week Eight Injury Analysis Report. Make sure to check back with me Sunday for my final thoughts before locking in those lineups!

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 3 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

It’s Week 3 of DFS QB Picks. Let’s all pray it’s less brutal than Week 2.

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Darnold and Trevor Siemien were all KO’ed with various forms of injuries, with Roethlisberger done for the season, Brees is out for up to six weeks, Darnold is down until Week Five and Siemien is likely to be in dry dock for a hot minute.

I think Florida Evans put it best.

As usual, we’ll focus on the main slate of Sunday afternoon games with a brief nod to Sunday night’s Rams-Browns and Monday night’s Bears-Redskins contests.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. MIA

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,400)

Dak Prescott is a legit QB1. There. Another thing I never suspect I’d type in 2019. Prescott has 447 completed air yards and six touchdown passes along with 81 yards rushing. Someone wants a new contract. He’s only made two bad throws in his first 62 attempts, so it’s all the more reason to run with Prescott against the most QB-friendly defense in Fantasy football.

Miami traded Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers on Monday, basically further declaring their secondary an open city for Prescott to march through. The Dolphins were 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers with Fitzpatrick, so I will buy into the unlikely and play Prescott in Cash Game formats, with the added bonus of at least 40 rushing yards and the prospect of a ground touchdown.

2) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. NO

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Wilson is averaging a solid 20.4 Fantasy points per game. He’ll move beyond solid against the Saints, who are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans is also 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers, a scary reality considering that 80% of Wilson’s 496 passing yards have come after the catch.

I think we’ve seen the peak of Wilson’s rushing. Don’t get it twisted: he can still hurt opponents on the ground, but the maturity as a passer makes his rushing attempts more precise than just a sheer desire to do so. That said, I’ll predict Wilson gives you a rushing TD on top of a big passing afternoon.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. HOU

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

On a bad day, Rivers still threw for 293 yards. He’s not Gardner Minshew and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will throw more fear into the Texans secondary than the Jaguars’ middling receiving corps did. Rivers has never recorded a 300-yard game against the Texans, but he’s averaged 3.5 TD passes against them. He’s averaged 10.83 adjusted passing yards per attempt versus the Texans.

Rivers is thriving off oyards after completion, amassing 479 of his 626 yards via that route. Much of that is credited to Allen and running back Austin Ekeler, who have combined for 56,5% of Rivers’ 46 completions. Creating havoc after the catch will be a must since Rivers will have to account for where DE J.J. Watt lines up.

Rivers also tends to get more accurate as the game goes on, completing 65% of pass attempts 21-30 and 80% beyond 30 attempts. This game should be a slugfest, so I’d bet on Rivers going well north of 30 attempts.

4) Deshaun Watson, HOU at LAC

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,200)

So the Jaguars remembered how to play defense. Watson burned a host of Cash Gamers last week, but I’m counting on a rebound on Sunday. With rushing scores in each of his first two games, Watson’s running only enhances his value. Although he’s getting just 4.9 air yards per completion thus far, Watson has added nearly two yards to his yards after the catch per completion from last season..

Watson has six big plays in his first two games, with his receivers (DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V and Kenny Stills) each with a pair. The Chargers are middle of the pack when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, but their 190 yards allowed will be tested — and passed — by Watson and the Texans on Sunday.

5) Jameis Winston, TB at NYG

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,300)

The Giants are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, giving up 329.5 yards and 2.5 TD passes per contest. Winston will have a healthier Mike Evans this week, and the progression from Week 1 to Week 2 is going to carry into Week 3.

If the Buccaneers want an effective Winston, they should keep him in single RB looks. His passer rating is 88.5 when in single sets compared to a 63.6 when lined up in shotgun. It’s a small sample, yes, yet again keep in mind that Week 3 will essentially feel like Week 1 for Evans. Winston’s under the radar right now, which is why the value and upside are a perfect Cash Game pairing.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Matthew Stafford, DET at PHI

DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)

Philly is giving up 350 yards and three touchdown passes per game. There’s nothing to suggest anyone in that secondary is going to slow down Kenny Golladay. The Eagles have allowed eight completions of better than 20 yards and 368 yards after the catch. This screams Field Day for Stafford.

2) Tom Brady, NE vs. NYJ

DK ($6,600), FD ($7,800)

In eight of his last 10 meetings against the Jets, including the past six, Brady has thrown at least two touchdown passes. He averaged better than 10 yards per attempt in the two games against them last season. Brady’s come out of the gate with an average of 13.8 yards per completion, his highest since 2011. The yardage totals, however (he has just one 300-yard game versus the Jets since 2014), is the main reason I can’t suggest him for Cash Games.

3) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. DET

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,700)

Alshon Jeffery (calf) is unlikely. DeSean Jackson (groin) is out, so ownership may be low. Wentz is magic after halftime, completing 35 of 48 passes for 385 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a sharp contrast from going 18 of 34 for 159 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the first 30 minutes of play.

4) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. ATL

DK ($5,200), FD ($6,800)

Yes, T.Y. Hilton is getting his targets, but what I like about Brissett is how he’s utilizing TEs Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. The duo have caught 9 of 12 targets, with Ebron catching one of Brissett’s five touchdown passes. The Colts are averaging 5.5 yards per carry, which strongly suggests Brissett will have opportunities for downfield shots against the Falcons that he didn’t have in the first two games against the Chargers and Titans. He’s perhaps the best value play of the week.

5) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. BAL

DK ($7,600), FD ($9,200)

The Ravens are fifth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. They did give up 349 yards to Kyler Murray on Sunday, but kept him out of the end zone. I don’t suspect they’ll do the same against Mahomes, who threw for 278 of his 443 yards against Oakland in the second quarter. He looked somewhat ordinary outside of that insane 15-minute run. Mahomes is averaging 10.7 yards per completion and no matter what, he’s not going to remain on a 6,568-yard, 56-TD pass pace. There’s better value passers with better matchups in Week 3, so do know there’s some Buyer Beware that comes with Mahomes this week.

6) Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. LAR

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: 112 Adjusted Yards per Atttempt+ means he’ll continue to stretch defenses now that Odell Beckham Jr. is in tune.

Bad Number: The Rams are third in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks.

7) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DEN

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Rodgers, who’s averaged 7.8 yards per attempt in his career, is not going to sit on his current average of 6.4 YPA much longer.

Bad Number: The Broncos are eighth in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed just 189.5 passing yards per game.

8) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. CAR

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: Only one interception in a league-high 94 attempts, plus he’s averaging 12.2 yards per completion.

Bad Number: He’s had 11 poor throws and just one completion from them. The Panthers are 0-2, but their defense is still good enough to make Murray look more like a rookie than he has thus far.

9) Lamar Jackson, BAL at KC

DK ($7,000), FD ($8,500)

Good Number: He’s averaging 14.5 yards per completion. That’s not all Hollywood Brown, either.

Bad Number: It’s nitpicking with the start that he’s had, so the 175 air yards counts as a “negative.”

10) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: He’s getting 8.58 net yards per attempt with an under the radar receiving corps.

Bad Number: Wow, that 3.3 depth yards per target is something we’re going to have to discuss, Jimmy…

Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Derek Carr, OAK at MIN

DK ($4,900), FD ($6,700)

The Vikings are 21st in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. Weren’t they supposed to be elite? Most will have Carr off their charts, but I’ll play the exception.

2) Matt Ryan, ATL at IND

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,800)

Five interceptions lead the league. Even with the big Week 2 outings from Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Ryan is still averaging a mere 5.6 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.

3) Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. WAS

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,800)

The numbers are putrid in his first two starts, but nothing says “improvement is coming” like facing the Redskins and their 31st ranked defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

4) Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. OAK

DK ($5,100), FD ($7,200)

As ugly a Week 2 that he had, keep in mind Cousins leads the league with a 14.9 yards per completion. Among the DFS Week 3 QB Picks, Cousins is near the top when it comes to “either/or.”

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT at SF

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,800)

If James Connor is limited, Rudolph will be north — well north — of 30 pass attempts. Look for Vance McDonald and James Washington to be the big winners in the new QB regime in Pittsburgh. The Niners are seventh in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers, which is why I’m not as optimistic about Rudolph as I am with any of the other DFS Week 3 QB Picks.

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

DFS: The Post-Apocalyptic Injury Report – Week 3

5 years ago

written by

I’ll be a licensed physical therapist in 8 months therefore, so nothing makes me shudder more than a week like the one we just had. As we move to Week Three, I’ll provide the post-apocalyptic injury report.

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Last week really rocked our world, didn’t it? Not only did we lose Drew Brees for six to eight weeks, we also lost Ben Roethlisberger for the season.

That’s only the beginning.

There are eight other player injuries with DFS implications, so let’s jump in.

Damien Williams

Williams’ injury is nebulous at this point. The team announced he has a “contusion” at his knee, but haven’t clarified the degree. If this is a true contusion of the periosteal bone (“bone bruise”) swelling and pain are going to be a factor. Additionally, expect him to miss two or three games with a true contusion. Conversely, if the team is using “contusion” as a broad term for a minor issue, Williams will be fine this week, with minimal setbacks.

Update: Williams has been ruled OUT.

LeSean McCoy

Shady had an MRI this week on his ankle after suffering an injury late in the fourth quarter on Sunday. The imaging report is “clear”, which rules out a high ankle injury, but tells us nothing about the pain he’s experiencing. Nonetheless, McCoy has a chance to play this Sunday, but it will depend on his practice participation and progress with the rehab team. All things considered, I don’t expect limitations for McCoy if he’s active.

Update: McCoy practiced on Thursday and we expect him to play Sunday as his teammate , Damien Williams, has already been ruled out. However, Shady has clearly been limited by pain this week, I would think very hard before putting him into lineups. Check out windailysports.com for other options.

James Conner

Conner’s situation is vague, but we know that his teammates and Conner himself say he’s fine. Conversely, a player’s knee being forced inward, like Conner’s, warrants concern for the MCL. However, the worst case scenario is that Conner is mildly uncomfortable and needs a brace for Week Three.

Update: A full participant at Friday’s practice, Conner could be a contrarian play this week if you still believe in this offense.

Devin Singletary

Singletary ran in a touchdown on Sunday, but not long after disappeared with a hamstring strain. Although the team has not given a grade of the strain (I, II, or III), research shows that even a grade I strains can cause one to three missed games. Furthermore, if Singletary tries to gut through a grade I or II, he can make matters worse. As a result, I’m avoiding him in DFS this week despite his optimistic “day-to-day” status.

Update: It’s now official, Singletary has been ruled OUT.

DeSean Jackson

Jackson is ruled out for week three and four. Watch this core muscle injury as it is closely related to “sports hernias.”

Tre’Quan Smith

I tweeted a picture of Tre’Quan’s injury here. We haven’t heard back from the Saints, but it’s not looking good for him in Week Three if you’re considering him as a flier.

David Njoku

Njoku took a nasty hit and landed on his shoulder and head. As a result, he did not finish the game and is now in the concussion protocol. Do not assume that he will be ready by Sunday, as concussions are fluid in nature. In fact, expect over-correction by teams moving forward after the protocol itself is now in question. Watch his status as the week progresses.

Update: Njoku also suffered a fractured wrist and will be out for at least the next month.

That will do it for the post-apocalyptic injury report of the week. The expectation is that these injuries will be clearer by Friday, then we can begin to dial in your lineups for the week.

Mid-week Additions

Cam Newton: Newton is styling a walking boot on his preseason injured foot. This comes as a surprise considering that Newton seemingly kicked that injury to the curb after not being listed on the injury report until this week. Check back with us later this week after we get more information on exactly what is hampering Newton.

Update: Newton has been ruled OUT.

Marlon Mack

Mack has not practiced as of Thursday. He is dealing with a calf injury which can be extremely debilitating for a running back. Look at Jordan Wilkins as a cheap option instead.

Update: Mack practiced on Friday which gives us some optimism. However, we can’t ignore then fact that Jordan Wilkins took first team reps all week. Look to pivot away from the Indi running backs if you want to stack this game.

Josh Jacobs

A picture from Jacobs’ phone was leaked with a caption of “I’ve lost 10lbs this week” apparently from an illness. That’s never a good sign. Throw in that Jacobs is also suffering from a groin injury leads to me fading him on the injury front.

Jimmy Graham

According to Ryan Wood, Graham did not practice today with a groin injury. These type of injuries can nag and linger for pass catchers who require a significant amount of lower extremity agility and change of direction. As of Thursday, I’m fading Graham this week.

Update: There’s some confusion about Graham’s groin situation as the Packers actually promoted a tight end from the practice on the same day that Graham missed practice. Add in the fact that even minor groin injuries can be debilitating for pass catchers and I’m ignoring Matt LaFleur’s positive positive practice report. You have better options at tight end.

Courtland Sutton

Sutton is out from practice with rib soreness, which can be tricky. The only limiting factor with rib injuries are a player’s ability to play through pain. In other words, his range of outcomes are too wide for me to plug him into any lineups this week.

Update: Sutton is not on the injury report headed into Sunday, which theoretically means he’s got no pain. Proceed with minimal caution.

Sterling Shepard

Shepard has been cleared for Sunday and should be good to go.

Alshon Jeffery

If it seems like Jeffery’s injury has been unclear, that’s because it is. There have been conflicting reports about Jeffery’s availability on Sunday, but the Eagles are “optimistic” about him. Even if he comes back, I’m looking elsewhere.

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Featured image via Erik Drost

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 2 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Now that we’ve gotten our first taste of the 2019 season, it’s here we begin to make sense of what we saw. The Week 2 DFS QB Picks will focus mostly on the main slate of Sunday games, but the Thursday, Sunday and Monday nighters will get love.

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Tom Brady, NE at MIA

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,800)

Oh, stop. You knew this was coming. Even if Antonio Brown didn’t play, Brady was going to be a lock here. The Dolphins allowed a combined 55.08 Fantasy points to Ravens QBs on Sunday, and Brady’s track record versus Miami is hilariously tilted in his favor.

In his last six matchups against the Dolphins, Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns five times, including five in the two games he faced them in 2018, where he finished with a combined 632 passing yards. Brady has tossed for at least 227 yards in each of his last 10 games against Miami, finishing with at least 274 yards six times. At this point, you don’t need Next Generation stats to be convinced what to do here.

2) Deshaun Watson HOU vs. JAX

DK ($6,600), FD ($8,500)

It’s safe to say the words “Houston Texans” and “effective run game” won’t be said in the same sentence in 2019. That means Watson will make regular appearances in this section, so long as he remains upright. Despite being sacked six times on Monday, Watson still put up 31 Fantasy points, placing him behind only Lamar Jackson (33.6) and Dak Prescott (33.4). The woeful Texans’ O-line assures that Watson will finish with 6-8 rushing TDs this season, again so long as he remains upright.

Jacksonville was 27th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers in Week 1 as Patrick Mahomes tagged them for 378 yards and three touchdowns without Tyreek Hill most of the afternoon. The Jaguars were 26th in receivers points allowed and will see plenty of DeAndre Hopkins, who averages 11.1 targets per game against them. Although Watson has a modest 79.7 passer rating in three previous games against the Jags, Sunday shapes up to be a personal best for Watson against an overrated unit.

3) Patrick Mahomes, KC at OAK

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,000)

He’s playing, so no worries about his sprained ankle. If he can flirt with 400 yards gimping along, it’s all good. Mahomes averaged 283 yards and three touchdowns in his two games against the Raiders last season, and I feel he’ll be just fine without Hill in the lineup.

My only concern with Mahomes is that once Hill exited the game, Sammy Watkins was the only wide receiver he targeted. While that makes Watkins a high-end WR1, a mild sense of uneasiness permeates. However, the bet is that A) the Chiefs will likely sign a veteran receiver this week and 2) whoever is opposite Hill will be grossly underrated. Oakland is a solid 11th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers after Week 1, but Joe Flacco isn’t Patrick Mahomes.

4) Drew Brees, NO at LAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($8,000)

Part of me feels like I have underrated Brees here. His track record against the Rams is 269 yards and two touchdowns per game. In his last four regular season tilts against the Rams, he has averaged 323.7 yards and 2.5 TDs per game.

Brees will do a good job of diversifying the passing game. Of his attempts on Monday night, 22 went to wide receivers, 11 went to running backs and four went to tight ends (quarterback Taysom Hill had two targets). The big play element is already there, as Brees connected on four completions of at least 20 yards. New Orleans had a combined seven big plays and will present a more dangerous offense than the Rams — who allowed just one big play against the Panthers — saw in Week 1.

5) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. ATL

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,700)

Wentz plays on Sunday night, so if you’re playing a full slate, keep in mind that he accounted for 219 air yards against the Redskins, accounting for 69.9% of his 313 passing yards. He was 21st in that category in 2018, but he didn’t have DeSean Jackson then, did he…

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Russell Wilson, SEA at PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

The one number to keep in mind with Wilson is that his receivers averaged 6.9 yards after the catch in Week 1. That’s two yards better than last year’s average. The Steelers allowed Pats wideouts to amass 273 receiving yards on just 14 completions (19.5 yards per catch) on Sunday night. I’d strongly consider Wilson as a Week 2 DFS QB Pick, but he falls just short of Cash Game status.

2) Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. ARI

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,200)

Let’s not proclaim him the Second Coming just yet, but Jackson sure as hell disproved a lot of his detractors on Sunday. The Cardinals will provide stiffer competition, but Jackson’s 10.3 air yards per pass completion and the zeroes in the categories of bad throws and danger passes are all encouraging signs. Even better is that he didn’t run much, which means that if Jackson is becoming a consistent passer, he will have a couple of games where he’ll combine his running skills into one hell of a Fantasy day.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC at DET

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,700)

The potential long-term impact of Mike Williams’ injury is currently in question and I don’t suspect Austin Ekeler will rack up 39.4 Fantasy points again, but we know Rivers will throw and do so effectively, as he completed 73.5% of his passes in Week 1. Rivers only had 147 air yards on Sunday, a number that translates into trouble for a Lions secondary that allowed 233 receiving yards to the Cardinals.

4) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,000)

Forget all we saw on Thursday night. You’ll be better for it. Rodgers won’t finish 23rd among all quarterbacks again. The Vikings did give up 304 yards to Matt Ryan and will have to contend with a more productive Packers passing game that averaged 10.3 yards per target. That tells me Rodgers will be more aggressive on Sunday and will be somewhat undervalued considering he’s facing a solid Minnesota defense.

5) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. SEA

DK ($7,600), FD ($8,500)

Speaking of rebound candidates, Roethlisberger will be under the radar and does bring a good track record against the Seahawks, averaging 25 completions and 320 yards in three previous matchups. If you’re looking for sunshine in his pitch black outing against the Pats, his receivers did not drop a pass, nor did he record a bad throw. Seattle made Andy Dalton look like a must-start passer in Week 1, and it’s almost a given that Big Ben is a far superior Fantasy performer at home. He’s worth the second look

6) Dak Prescott, DAL at WAS

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Prescott averaged 16.2 yards per completion and had seven completions of better than 20 yards.

Bad Number: Raise your hand if you think Ezekiel Elliott will have 14 touches. I’ll wait.

7) Jared Goff, LAR vs. NO

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: The Saints defense is still the Saints defense, as only the Dolphins and Giants allowed more Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Bad Number: A 59% completion rate and 8.1 yards per completion makes me have Super Bowl flashbacks.

8) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. PHI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Case Keenum produced 380 yards against the Eagles secondary. Imagine what Ryan could do if the Falcons give him time to throw.

Bad Number: Ryan has never had a season in which he averaged less than 10.4 yards per completion, so the 9.2 YPC against the Vikings is a bit of of a concern.

9) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. LAC

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)

Good Number: We would all take 14.3 yards per completion, which is what Stafford had against the Cardinals.

Bad Number: Don’t count on the Lions having 77 plays from scrimmage.

10) Derek Carr, OAK vs. KC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,600)

Good Number: Carr averaged big plays at an 18.1% completion rate, a solid number considering he only attempted 26 passes.

Bad Number: Oakland’s receiver depth is concerning. Outside of Tyrell Williams, Carr targeted wideouts just seven times. That’s a number that has to improve, especially if the Chiefs are doubling Williams up.

Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Case Keenum, WAS vs. DAL

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

He’s going to be a strong value play, especially if the Redskins have to play catchup. Keenum did have a nice split in targets with a 23-21 distribution to wide receivers and running backs/tight ends.

2) Andy Dalton, CIN vs. SF

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

San Francisco was the top Fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. The Tyler Boyd-Richard Sherman matchup will be a huge indicator on how well Dalton will look.

3) Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. IND

DK ($5,000), FD ($7,400)

Averaged 12.4 passing yards after completion, but who in 2019 is going to trust a quarterback that completes 50% of his attempts?

4) Cam Newton, CAR vs. TB

DK ($16,500), FD ($15,000)

The better of the two plays if you’re going Showdown on Thursday night. Should find the end zone, but his 5.7 yards per target doesn’t look good, especially when investing in Panthers wide receivers.

5) Baker Mayfield, CLE at NYJ

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,500)

Prove it. He will be an interesting watch among the Week 2 DFS QB Picks.

6) Jacoby Brissett, IND at TEN

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,000)

The accuracy (77.7%) is there, but the 4.2 yards after catch per completion is going to need some work.

7) Gardner Minshew, JAX at HOU

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,400)

On price alone, Minshew should be ranked higher. The Jags get a Texans pass defense that got nothing from J.J. Watt on Monday night en route to finishing 29th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers.

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Russell Wilson Featured Image via Mike Morris

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 1 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

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Trust me, I didn’t get this role just because I once led my intramural football team to the playoffs as a 5’10, 270 quarterback at (then) Southwest Texas State (now Texas State University). Regardless, welcome to Week 1 DFS QB Picks, where we’ll break down the best plays via Cash Game, GPP and the tried and true punt.

All QBs are listed in order of preference/rank in each section

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Listen to our DFS Podcast on Week One QB picks below.

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

Deshaun Watson HOU @ NO

DK ($6,800), FD ($8,500)

Even with the addition of RB Carlos Hyde, this is the year the Texans climb out of the bottom third in passing attempts, and it begins on Monday night. Houston was 22nd in passing plays per game in 2018 (22nd overall), and a increase in passing plays — with a healthy Will Fuller V and the addition of Duke Johnson — means Watson can increase his 2.469 air yards (5th best in 2018).

I don’t see where the Saints greatly improved a defense that ranked 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks last season. This feels almost like a layup here since Watson finished in the Top 10 in Fantasy scoring among QBs 10 times in 2018 that included a pair of number ones in Week 8 and Week 12. The supporting cast is addition by subtraction, so I’d think he’ll get improve upon his 3.32 Supporting Cast Efficiency (SCE), which ranked 17th. This is Monday Night Money to finish it off if you are playing the full 16-game slate.

Russell Wilson SEA vs. CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($8,200)

The Bengals were 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks last season and will have a hard time keeping Wilson from taking shots downfield. Seattle was dead last in team passing plays (29.9) but Wilson made the most of his deep shots, finishing second in the league with a 46.7% completion rate and placed third in air yards per attempt at 5.1. That he topped all passers with a production premium of +28 was helped in part that he placed fifth with 31 money throws along with the fact Wilson had the best SCE (Supporting Cast Efficiency) in the league with 19.24.

Of course, his numbers will climb if he ran more than he did last season. I can’t promise when and where, but Wilson will score a rushing touchdown or two this season. That he was sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards was one of 2018’s odd numbers, and while I don’t think he’ll return to the top, he’ll be a more efficient runner. Cincy was 27th in rushing yards per game allowed to quarterbacks, making Wilson a good play in cash games.

Drew Brees NO vs. HOU

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,000)

Father Time is trying to blitz Brees, but it’s not going to work Monday night. Brees trailed only Wilson when it came to SCE (14.06) while remaining ruthlessly efficient, topping the league in true completion percentage at a staggering 78.8% along with averaging .56 Fantasy points per dropback (2nd). Houston was 21st in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers and that was with Jadeveon Clowney, who is now in Seattle. Like Wilson, he brings pain when going deep, as his 45.6% completion rate when dialing it up was third overall.

Houston is notorious when it comes to getting sucked into play-action, making Brees more valuable in cash game, as he completed 75% of his attempts when in play-action. Having the likes of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara is exactly why Brees was fourth in money throws last season (33) and should be able to produce a money throw or two to make cash gamers feel at ease selecting him on the full 16-game slate. Both he and Watson will be popular Showdown style choices.

Featured Image of Carson Wentz via Keith Allison

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

Carson Wentz, PHI vs. WAS

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,600)

Wentz is going to need a quarter or two to get some rust off considering he’s played as many preseason snaps as me or your wife. I couldn’t put him in cash games despite the temptation and the wealth of talent he has surrounding him. He was a mediocre 1.75 in SCE last season, but I’d venture adding Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders, DeSean Jackson and preseason sensation J.J. Arcega-Whiteside jumps him from his 18th place finish last season.

Wentz was 21st in air yards (1,745), understandable since the Eagles aren’t a bombs away team. The new faces should get his -1.4 production premium into the black and you have to keep in mind his 3.1 accuracy rating was second overall. Close but not quite a cash gamer, but a strong GPP play.

Patrick Mahomes, KC at JAX

DK ($7,200), FD ($8,700)

Don’t be the fool who’s so enamored with Mahomes that you’re convinced he’d shred the 1976 Steelers defense. Mahomes is not a cash gamer, but there will more than enough fools who’ll think otherwise. It’s not my job to tell grown people what to do, but…

Mahomes has flaws, and the Jaguars defense is capable of exploiting them, especially at home. Mahomes topped the league in production premium at +28, but he was just 14th in true completion percentage (71.7%) and red zone competion percentage (63.5%). This is not the week to envision him averaging 25.9 Fantasy points per game even though he’ll pick up where he left off in deep ball attempts (91). The potential Tyreek Hill vs. Jalen Ramsey matchup favors Ramsey; opponents tested him 28 times on go/out routes last season with only one touchdown to show for it. Something to keep in mind..

Aaron Rodgers, GB at CHI

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,200)

Good Number: The Packers were 10th in red zone attempts last season (73). He is basically your only choice with a Thursday night showdown entry. He may not be widely owned on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: Forty-nine (yes, Virginia, 49) passers had a better red zone completion rate than Rodgers’ 61.5%.

Tom Brady, NE vs. PIT

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Tommy Touchdown had the league’s best protection rate (90.1). That alone makes him a strong Week 1 DFS QB Picks play on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: He’s really, really, really going to need a healthy and focused Josh Gordon to improve his receiver target separation of 1.39, 28th best overall.

Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. ATL

DK ($5,500), FD ($7,400)

Good Number: Bring your blitzes, damn you! Cousins welcomes it, finishing third with a 49.7% completion rate when facing pressure.

Bad Number: Vikings backs and receivers dropped 31 passes last season, fifth-highest in the league. In a way, you can’t fault Cousins on that, but still…

Phillip Rivers, LAC vs. IND

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Rivers loves to pass the football on the left hand side, accounting for 1,619 yards and 14 touchdowns last season when throwing to the side of the southpaw.

Bad Number: His 13.57 SCE, which ranked third last season, takes a considerable hit without having Melvin Gordon available.

Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. TEN

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Mayfield quietly finished fifth in production premium at +13.1.

Bad Number: Hopefully, the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. will lead to a reduction of the 32 dropped passes the Browns recorded last season.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at NE

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Even without Antonio Brown, it’s hard to imagine the Steelers not leading the league in passing plays per game, as they did last season (44.6). That makes him a GPP play on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: Big Ben lives dangerously, evidenced by the 32 danger plays he recorded last season, the fifth-highest total in the league.

Jared Goff, LAR @ CAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)

Good Number: Goff finished third with 2,617 air yards last season. Once Cooper Kupp gets into form, the Rams will remain a dangerous offense with quick-strike potential.

Bad Number: The Super Bowl showed how Goff fares when facing constant heat. He finished 25th in pressured completion percentage with 31.3%.

Matt Ryan, ATL @ MIN

DK ($6,100), FD ($8,000)

Good Number: No one topped Ryan in air yards last season as he racked up 2,876 yards.

Bad Number: Ryan’s 79.5% protection rate was only 25th overall. That has to be good news for those DFSers considering the Vikings defense.

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. MIA

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,400)

Yes, the rushing yards will be there, especially in the red zone. That’s a good thing considering Jackson’s 37.5% completion rate inside the opponents’ 20-yard line was 54th overall. That is not enough to merit consideration as a Week 1 DFS QB Picks candidate.

Cam Newton, CAR vs. LAR

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,900)

No one mastered the play-action pass like Newton last season, as he completed 75.7% of his attempts when pulling defenses in. Helps to have Christian McCaffrey in the backfield.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. NYG

DK ($5,900), FD ($6,700)

Ezekiel Elliott got P-A-I-D early Wednesday morning, which eliminates the prospect of Prescott getting the bulk of red zone touches. Elliott’s return also cripples the chances of Prescott being a potential top 12 quarterback, a plateau he reached just six times last season.

Sam Darnold, NYJ vs. BUF

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

The presence of Le’Veon Bell alone assures Darnold’s SCE of -14.03 (31st) takes a rapid climb up the elevator. That, and a season’s worth of experience, will also help him avoid the number of danger plays (30) he put up as a rookie.

Derek Carr, OAK vs. DEN

DK ($5.400), FD ($6,600)

Carr’s true completion percentage of 75.6% was third-best last season, and the additions of Antonio Brown and rookie back Josh Jacobs will improve an already-solid 4.77 SCE.

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