Welcome to Monday edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have a nice-sized 11-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. We’re not quite through the first rotation of most team’s staff. That means pitching will be kind of blah tonight as we are essentially at the back end of most rotations. The good is that it means plenty of offense. The bad, is that it means pitching will be really tough to nail down.
Let’s dig and make some money!
The Houston Astros will turn the ball over to top prospect Hunter Brown tonight. In a small cup of tea last year, Brown was really good. In his 20 innings of work, Brown struck out 27.5% of the batters he faced and did a nice job of limiting hard contact as hitters had a sub-30 % hard-hit rate vs. him. While we can’t expect him to continue with the .89 ERA that he had last year, he did pitch to an xFIP under 3 last season. Brown also had a phenomenal chase rate of nearly 32% last season. Of all the pitchers throwing today, no one outside of Matthew Boyd and his 13 innings of work last year had more hitters chasing.
This is just not a good Tigers lineup and one that Brown should easily navigate through. Through the first 3 games of the season, this Tigers lineup has scored just 3 runs. Not 4, not 5, not 6, just 3 runs. They are awful and I feel bad that Miguel Cabrera’s last season in baseball will be part of this atrocious lineup. Houston and Brown are huge favorites tonight. While nothing is guaranteed, feel confident throwing out Brown tonight.
Yes, pitching is so bad that the next pitcher I’m recommending is Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen isn’t actually that bad of a pitcher, he’s actually pretty good. He just doesn’t strike many out. He had a K rate in 2022 of just over 21%. That’s not ideal for MLB DFS as K’s are king. That said, pitching is bad tonight and the pitchers that actually did have high K rates last year are not in good matchups.
While Rasmussen won’t get many K’s tonight, he should be able to do a great of limiting damage. This Nationals lineup has been bad to start the year. Through their first 3 games, they’ve scored just 7 runs for an average of just 2 per game. Tampa is one of the bigger favorites on the board. The K’s won’t be there for him tonight, but Rasmussen should be able to go long enough in this one to get the W and pay off his $8.1k DK salary tonight.
This is a high-risk/potentially high-reward pick. Nestor Cortes had by far the best season of his career in 2022. He set career highs in wins, innings pitched, ERA, and xFIP. Basically any meaningful stat, Cortes improved last year. He does a great job of throwing hitters off with his quirky mechanics.
This is a really good Phillies lineup, but not quite the lineup they expected to have to start the year. Harper is out recovering from TJ surgery and Hoskins is out for the year after tearing his ACL at the end of Spring Training. Cortes should be able to neutralize Schwarber tonight as he’s absolutely dominant vs. lefties. This is low-key a really good spot for Cortes and he should be able to give the Phillies hitters a ton of fits tonight. He’s risky, but could potentially be the highest-scoring pitcher on the night.
The Tampa Bay Rays get to take on journeyman starter Trevor Williams. Williams isn’t an awful pitcher, but he’s also not a good pitcher. He’s an average one at best and one that should struggle with this Tampa lineup tonight. Williams is a flyball pitcher and if he’s off his game just a smidge tonight, there should be some homers tonight in DC as the weather should be perfect for early April baseball.
Core: My Tampa core will be built around Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena. Franco is off to a red-hot start to the 2023 campaign. Through his first 11 AB, Franco has 7 hits. Of those 7, 4 have been for extra-base hits. This is the type of environment tonight where he should continue with this early success in the year. I also really like Aroz here. Through his first 3 games, Aroz has already scored 4 runs, while driving in 3. He’s as big of a part of this offense as anyone. These 2 guys should dominate tonight
Secondary/Value: Other guys I really like in this lineup tonight will be both Brandon and Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz, and Jose Siri. All of these guys have been productive to start the year. Both Josh Lowe and Jose Siri make for excellent value plays as they are both under $3k on DK tonight.
The Dodgers get one of the best matchups on the board tonight. In nearly 100 innings in 2022, Feltner really struggled. Feltner’s final ERA in 2022 was pushing 6 at 5.83. While ERA isn’t an end-all, it does show that a pitcher struggled. He also gave up a massive hard-hit rate at nearly 36%. That’s one of the worst marks of anyone on the hill tonight and that says a lot considering what we’re working with. Feltner was pretty much split-neutral in 2022 so I’m not going to be overly concerned with worrying about what side of the plate to attack him with.
Core: My Core with the Dodgers tonight will be the 2 guys that hit at the top of the lineup and are 2 of the best hitters in the game, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Neither guy has really blown us out of the water yet, but their day is coming and that will be today in what is a cake matchup for them. Freeman is my favorite of the two though if you can only afford one of them. He gets the platoon advantage tonight and has immense upside tonight.
Secondary/Value: Other bats I like here will be Will Smith, David Peralta, and JD Martinez. Will Smith is a lot more than I normally like to spend on catchers, but he’s one of the best-hitting catchers in the game and has started out the season strong with 5 RBI and 5 hits in his first 11 AB. He also has multiple extra-base hits. Again, he’s pricey, but you could do a whole lot worse with $5k.
The Boston Red Sox offense has started out extremely strong this season. Through 3 games against the Orioles’ meager pitching staff, they were able to put up 23 runs. They’ll now get to face another below-average staff in the Pittsburgh Pirates. Expect more runs from them and expect them often. Tonight they’ll face off against Johan Oviedo. While Oviedo wasn’t awful last season, he has shown in his 2 previous stints in the bigs with the Cards that he struggles to get big leaguers out. I’m going to fully attack him tonight.
Core: My core with the Red Sox is going to be very clear. Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner, and Rafael Devers. All 4 guys are off to hot starts, with Duvall, Devers, and Turner all hitting over .400 to start the year. Outside of Devers, this stack is extremely affordable tonight. Both Turner and Duvall are under $4k tonight. They don’t get the platoon advantage, but they are near locks in my lineup.
Secondary/Value: The other 2 bats I like here will be Enrique Hernandez and Masataka Yoshida. Neither guy is a necessity, but if you can fit them in go for it as there should be some runs scored by the Red Sox tonight.
We have our first Monday slate of the year and it’s going to be a doozy. There are limited pitching options but there will be plenty of options for offense. Expect a high-scoring slate tonight.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to another edition of Formula 1 Race Week: Australian Grand Prix 2023.
It’s race week in Australia! Albert Park is a similar track to Jeddah, the race from last week which means it’s all about speed! With 20 corners, 4 DRS zones, and just a few heavy braking corners, this track is all about balance and a strong front end. Prior to qualifying it has rained all weekend, adding a touch of spice to this weekend’s proceedings. So let’s get to it.
Red Bull
Max Verstappen ($21,000) has looked human this weekend but has been amongst the top 3 drivers in all practice sessions, qualifying on the pole. Max in the Captain spot with Red Bull Racing ($13,300) in the constructor typically makes a ton of sense, but with Sergio Perez starting in P20, you really need him to get into the top 3 to maximize the RBR constructor play. Don’t be afraid to pair Max with a different constructor this weekend.
For Sergio Perez ($11,400) to make value he has to pass damn near the entire field. Starting from P20 he’s got the machinery to do it, but considering overtakes are pretty difficult here and his struggles overall on the circuit, this might not be the best weekend for him.
Mercedes
The Mercs are strongly in play this weekend. After finishing in the top 5 last race and with both cars qualifying in the 3 top positions, pairing Lewis Hamilton ($8,200) starting in P2 or George Russell ($8,800) P3 with Mercedes ($8,700) in the constructor spot is a good way to get different while maximizing upside in your DK lines. If you’re playing multiple GPP lines, having a few with the Merc drivers in the captain spot could be very lucrative if things break in your favor.
Aston Martin
Once again a top 5 car, with the pace and the opportunity I would treat Aston Martin ($10,300) the same as I do Mercedes, very playable and a good way to get different while not being too far off the board. Fernando Alonso ($10,200) starts P4 with his teammate Lance Stroll ($7000) P6
Ferrari
Total GPP play here. In MME formats having some exposure to Ferrari ($9300) is very sensible. I would not play them in a cash game format or a single entry. The Mercedes has seemed to be better over the weekend and it really does feel as if Ferrari has kept their engine turned down, however, the Ferrari-powered cars (Haas, Alfa Romeo, Ferrari) seem to come alive on Sunday on long runs. Charles Leclerc ($9,400) and Carlos Sainz ($7,800) are fairly priced GPP plays.
Alpine
If I could make a bet for a team at longer odds to win this race I would put my money on the Alpine ($5,500) camp. They need things to fall their way, GPP plays in MME Gasly ($6,400) P9 and Ocon ($6,000) P11. Ocon did get caught out in qualifying so he might have a spot or two he can gain.
Haas
Having finished just outside the points in Jeddah and the similarities between that circuit and Albert Park here in Melbourne, Australia I like the Haas ($3200) to come alive and score well. Hulkenberg ($3000) is min price starting in P10, he might lose a spot or two so he comes with risk, but at that price point, it’s worth the volatility. Kevin Magnussen ($4200) starts in P14 and is a racer I won’t mind getting exposure to.
McLaren
Lando Norris ($5,600) P12 and Oscar Piastri ($5,000) P16 started to show some life as they made an effort to actually run deep into FP2, but then Lando’s McLaren broke down and they looked disappointing again. They are caring speed here in Australia so having one or two of these dudes in your GPPs is alright, but it feels really thin. This is Oscar P’s home race combined with Lando’s car being a gigantic question mark, I would prefer Oscar in his McLaren ($3,800)
Williams
As I mentioned in the opening paragraph this is a track for speed, and the Williams have a ton of it. The Williams($3,000) of Alex Albon ($4,600) starting in P8 is no fluke. He might have overqualified so it comes with risk, but the upside is there. I’m comfortable using Logan Sargent ($3,200), starting P18 especially if I am going to stack Max in the Captain with Red Bull Racing in the constructor spot.
Alpha Tauri
The last drivers into fades, taking Tsunoda ($4,400) P12 over DeVries ($3,600) P15 but not forcing in either, I will be okay ending up with some DeVries if it comes down to it.
Alfa Romeo
The Alfa is a pure race car. They tend to be nowhere on Friday and Saturday, then come to play in the race. I like the savings and neither is a priority like the Alpha Tauri so if I end up there that’s not an issue. Bottas comes in at ($5,400) and Zhou at ($3,800) starting in P19 and P17 respectively.
Overall you really need Sergio to come from the depth of the field for the RBR constructor play to pay off. Max should dominate this race and should be in a majority of your lineups. Pairing him with a different constructor, I’ll have the majority Mercedes and Aston Martin but mixing and matching makes a ton of sense. Be careful with Sargent, Norris, and Perez as they all had reliability issues throughout the course of the weekend.
If you have any questions or if you’d like to talk strategy @tcuz86 in Discord.
Friday night was a solid one minus a few things. Kyle Freeland tossed a gem, effectively killing Padres stacks. Hunter Gaddis actually held his own, but we got a bit of action out of the Mariners still.
Moving on to Saturday, we have a HUGE main slate starting at 2:10 ET. Lots of options to choose from, and I’m here to narrow some down for you.
Let’s crush today’s slate!
Strider was one of the most exciting young pitchers in 2022, and I’m expecting more of the same in the 2023 season. This is a Nationals lineup that is…poor. They will be a lineup I pick on quite a bit this season, and this is a prime spot for the young righty.
The Braves are listed as a -250 favorite in a game with a total of 8.5. Why is the total so high with Strider on the mound? More on that later. What DOES matter right now is that Strider was an absolute machine last season. He had a 13.81 K/9, allowed just 0.48 HR/9, allowed a .179 BAA, I could go on forever. Strider is an easy play on Saturday. He will be popular, but it’s a massive slate. I’m not worried about it.
If you haven’t seen Lodolo pitch, you are missing out. He has electric stuff, and has the strikeout upside to win you a boatload of cash. His 11.41 K/9 is second only to Strider among today’s pitchers, and the Pirates are going to have a tough time against him.
There are quite a few lefties in this Pittsburgh lineup, and Lodolo has had his way with same-handed batters. Lodolo has had some command issues at times (3 BB/9), but the upside here is massive and the matchup is solid. If he can keep the ball over the plate and dodge O’Neill Cruz’s bat, he could be among the highest scorers on the day.
There are a ton more options here, but I’m looking to differentiate a bit as well. Clayton Kershaw is a monster -250 favorite, Clarke Schmidt is one of my favorite GPP options. Zack Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff deserve some love too. However, there are only so many seats at the table.
Sandoval is a breakout candidate for 2023. He showed flashes of brilliance in 2022, but overall his numbers were just decent. He had a 9.14 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, and a 1.25 WHIP. Not great. But he does a great job of keeping the ball in the park (0.48 HR.9), and gives up very little hard contact (26.4% HardHit).
Even better? The Athletics lineup is equivalent to your local community college as far as power goes. Sandoval should have his way with these guys en route to smashing a cheap salary. The Angels are -165 favorites with a total of 7.5 runs.
Say what you will and overreact to Spring Training numbers, but count me out as a believer in Gray. The guy is on a MLB-record pace in home runs allowed (2.3/9 in 2022!!!). I know he didn’t serve any up in the Spring, but I take very little from those numbers in general.
The Braves have one of the most powerful lineups in baseball, and it will be on full display Saturday. In 2022, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson all had an ISO of at LEAST .227 against RHP. Ronald Acuna Jr. didn’t make that cut in a down year, but I think we all know what he can do. Fire up this stack and let’s hope that others overreact to Gray having a solid spring. He just isn’t good.
If we set the clocks back to 2016, Kershaw vs Bumgarner was must-watch television. Well, in the year 2023, that ship has sailed. Bumgarner has gone from ace to back-end starter in one of the worst teams in baseball.
His 2022 was not very good, and that’s me being polite. He had just a 6.43 K/9, allowed 1.42 HR/9, had a WHIP of 1.44…the list goes on all day. The Dodgers are absolutely stacked at the top of the lineup, and I’m expecting big things here.
The late-night hammer stack of Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Mookie Betts, and JD Martinez won’t be very cheap, but should have their way early and often against the corpse of MadBum. Also, did you know he once dated a girl also named Madison Bumgarner? Weird world.
Here we go. The bold call of the night. Listen, Chris Sale coming back is great for Chris Sale. The guy has 11 starts since 2019. He got lit up in his last Spring Training outing, and I just am not a believer that he will get it done consistently.
This is an incredibly underrated Orioles lineup full of young players with pop. Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, and Cedric Mullins are all solid options here. Henderson and Mullins won’t have the platoon advantage here, but I’m not concerned with that.
This team can score, and will continue to batter Red Sox pitching on Saturday. Ride this stack to the top and I’ll meet you there.
Saturday’s slate looks like an absolute blast. I’ll be taking my shots on the O’s, Braves, and Dodgers. I mentioned a few more arms I like above as well. Let’s have a HUGE day!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Aside from reading the 4/1 NHL DFS article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning. If you like what you see, sign up for more Win Daily content here.
*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings and are accurate as of the time of writing*
Florida Panthers (-215) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+185) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Carolina Hurricanes (-265) at Montreal Canadiens (+225) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Buffalo Sabres (-120) at Philadelphia Flyers (+100) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Toronto Maple Leafs (-140) at Ottawa Senators (+120) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
New York Islanders (+130) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-150) – 6 Projected Goal Total
New Jersey Devils (-315) at Chicago Blackhawks (+260) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Dallas Stars (+120) at Colorado Avalanche (-140) – 6 Projected Goal Total
San Jose Sharks (-115) at Arizona Coyotes (-105) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Anaheim Ducks (+360) at Edmonton Oilers (-450) – 7 Projected Goal Total
Los Angeles Kings (-105) at Seattle Kraken (-115) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Minnesota Wild (-105) at Vegas Golden Knights (-115) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Florida Two – “Anton Lundell ($3,600), Matthew Tkachuk ($8,700), Eetu Luostarinen ($3,700)”
It might be chasing a bit following a Matthew Tkachuk hat trick. However, Florida finds itself in a great spot against the defensively deficient Blue Jackets. The Panthers are -215 road favorites and are coming in with a bit of momentum. On this big of a slate, I think you run this as a two-man line. Obviously, Tkachuk would be part of any two-man build. From there you could flex either or. The ownership should be fairly spread out with a bunch of big favorites on the slate. With that in mind, two-man stacks should be optimal as we attempt the “capture” method.
New York Islanders One – “Pierre Engvall ($3,200), Kyle Palmieri ($4,400), Brock Nelson ($5,900)”
Call me a homer. The Islanders are +130 underdogs in a 6 total matchup. As a result, they will be very, very low-owned. However, this line is hot right now, especially Kyle Palmieri. This man usually tends to save his best work for the end of each season. So far, it seems like 2023 is no different. Much like with Florida Two above, I think once again we turn to a two-man. You would be using Palmieri along with one of the other skaters. Over the last ten games, the Islanders’ top line is eighth in the NHL in SATF “97”.
10-Day Sample Size – SATF “accounts for all shots including blocked and missed shots”
Defenseman
Jake Sanderson – Ottawa – $4,800 – Thomas Chabot remains out for at least two weeks. Let’s keep the Sanderson train rolling.
Goalie
Jake Oettinger – Dallas Stars – $7,400 – Oettinger has a tough matchup with the Avalanche. However, we can expect to face sufficient shot volume. Given his stellar 2.47 GAA and .917 SV% and he has tournament-winning upside on this slate.
New York Islanders (+130) – DraftKings – 1 Unit – Whereas Tampa has been stumbling as of late, the Islanders have been stepping their game up. Let’s take the plus odds!
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! He is not very difficult to find on Discord with the username Rich Masana. Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/
Welcome back to the Friday Night WinDaily NHL Between the Benches Article! Teams are beginning to secure their spots while others are jockeying for a Wild Card position. I think we will see a photo-finish in the 2023 playoff race, and we some great NHL action coming your way tonight! Tonight’s 3/31 NHL slate begins at 7:00 pm ET. Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get right into it!
— Welcoming Devon Levi to the NHL tonight is the New York Rangers who have arguably one of the deepest rosters in the NHL with their top three lines all performing well as we head into teams final playoff pushes. Out of the three lines, the Rangers top line have been my favourite as of late. Zibanejad and Panarin in Particular have been racking up a lot of points as of late and the line averages anywhere from 18 to 19 minutes of ice time per night along with Power play time for every member of the top unit. With Panarin and Zibanejad on the top Power Play and Tarasenko on the second power play unit. Despite the high offensive output, Buffalo has regularly been one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season as they sit tied for third worst in the league in goals against average and somehow they’re still fighting for a Wild Card spot! The Rangers on the other hand have secured a spot in the playoffs and are poised to exploit their opponents bad offence as they are coming in with one of the highest implied totals of the slate at 3.6 implied goals. What it also comes down to is form, The Rangers have won 7 of their last 9 games with high scores against most teams and the Sabres have lost 6 of their last 9 including an OT loss against the Rangers. On a final note, the Sabres have been terrible at home while the Rangers have an impressive record on the road. So, if anything this game taking place in Buffalo might actually play as an advantage to the Rangers.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Adam Fox
— The Stars have been sneaky good this season. They’re second in the Central division, are tied for seventh in the league in goals per game and are just a game or two away from securing their playoff spot. Not to mention, their top line has absolutely been tearing it up. With each member of the top line having at least a point per game over their last five games. All while each sees around 20 minutes of ice time per game, along with time on the Stars top Power Play unit. This line has stayed the same for nearly the entire season and a half and the chemistry that these three have formed is remarkable. This line has been clicking and their production is off the chart. Lets not forget, they’re coming up against an Arizona team who give up an average of 3.44 goals against per game and have lost their last five games, I am heavily on the Stars in this one. These two teams also faced off at the beginning of the month in Dallas where the Stars secured a 4-2 comeback win!
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Miro Heiskanen
Honorable Mention(s): New York Rangers 2 (Kane-Trochek-Kreider), Buffalo Sabres 2 (Peterka-Cozens-Quinn)
Best (Goalies to Roster)
Worst (Goalies to Target)
1. Marcus Hellberg
Honorable Mention(s): Karel Vejmelka
Brock Boeser
– Boeser has been an absolute monster as of late. Over his last three games he has six points (3 goals, 3 assists) and has averaged around 19 minutes of ice time over those three games. In what has been a pretty disappointing season, he has turned it on over the last week. Unfortunately for him, this latest push comes when the Canucks are on the outside looking for the playoff race. However, aside from the playoff race, he is a solid DFS option tonight, with a lot of upside, given how he’s performed throughout his career.
Honorable Mention(s): Nino Nieddereiter, David Perron, Filip Chytll
Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)
Center – Mika Zibanejad
Winger – Jason Robertson
Defenseman – Neal Pionk (Heiskanen is a good option but he’s been a little cold)
Goalie – Jake Oettinger (Levi is a good GPP option for DFS if you are fading the New York Rangers in one of your lines)
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Very few things in sports compare to Opening Day for MLB. I was down in Cincinnati for the festivities yesterday, and the atmosphere was electric. Being back in a stadium for the first time since last year was just the icing on the cake. The Reds let the fans down, but that’s what they do.
I’m pumped to be putting a few of these articles out each week to help you all make a bag or two this season. After every team playing on Opening Day, we have just a five-game slate for Friday evening. The first game of the eveing starts at 6:40, so we have a bit of an earlier start to lineup lock.
Let’s dig in and head into the weekend with some big wins!
Not only is May listed as a -200 favorite, but he has the easiest path to success tonight against Arizona. The Diamondbacks started hot last night against Julio Urias. After putting up two runs on three hits through the second, they had just one more hit the rest of the night.
Corbin Carroll is a frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year, and an absolute joy to watch on the diamond. That said, he may just be the only bright spot for Arizona this year.
May isn’t an ace in the sense of being a dominant pitcher, but that won’t be necessary here. He threw just 30 innings in 2022, but overall he pitched well. He had an 8.7 K/9, which is a serviceable rate in a plus matchup like this one. Dustin also had a 4.2 BB/9, but those numbers seem to be more of an outlier than anything in a small sample size. I’m not expecting a dominant performance, but he will certainly be an easy SP to click on for cash games.
The MLB schedule gods gave most of the terrible teams a day off after embarrassing themselves yesterday. The White Sox nearly ran themselves into a loss…literally. This is a team loaded with talent, but one who will have a tough time to put up numbers on Friday night.
Javier was fantastic in 2022, posting a 11.74 K/9 and 2.54 ERA (2.43 xERA) across 148.2 IP. In his final four starts of the season, he tossed 23 innings, allowed ZERO runs on SIX hits with a 29/6 K/BB. Yes, those numbers are real. I double and triple-checked.
Javier and the Astros are listed as -150 favorites to bounce back from a disappointing Opening Day result.
I debated putting Jesus Luzardo in this spot, but his matchup is quite a bit tougher and he is an underdog. I do like him as a GPP pivot, and will make his way into some lineups today.
We are here to talk about Robbie Ray. This guy has had a roller-coaster of a career, having dealt with some massive command issues earlier in his career. He turned things around and took home the 2021 CY Young.
Two things are consistent with Robbie Ray. He strikes out a lot of batters (10.04/9 in 2022, 11.04 career), but he also serves up a lot of home runs. He served up 32 longballs in 32 starts in 2022, leading him to a 1.54 HR/9 which is…not good. You take the good with the bad with Ray, and if he is commanding his pitches, the sky is the limit.
The Guardians have some patient hitters and some power in their lineup, so Ray could find himself in a few tough spots. If he can navigate Jose Ramirez (J-Ram is 1-9 in his career off Ray for you BvP people), Ray will be one of the top scorers tonight. He was tremendous in Spring Training, posting a 26/6 K/BB and an ERA and WHIP both right around 1.00. Ray will find a way.
We don’t have the pleasure of picking on the worst starting LHP in all of baseball again today, but in my opinion, Freeland isn’t far behind. He posted a 6.75 K/9, 5.11 xERA, 4.48 xFIP…the list goes on. He doesn’t miss bats, and that should be an issue against San Diego tonight. Yes, he pitches better away from Coors Field, but the difference isn’t enough for me to move the needle.
The Friars have a loaded lineup, even with Fernando Tatis Jr. out for the 300th time in his short career. Xander Bogaerts posted a .448 wOBA against LHP in 2022, Manny Machado has always hit lefties well, the corpse of Nelson Cruz is even in play if he is in the lineup. All three of those, as well as Juan Soto, Matt Carpenter, and Ha-seong Kim had walk rates over 10% against LHP in 2022. There are a lot of lefties in this lineup, but Freeland also has some reverse-splits over the last few seasons.
I’m expecting some big innings in San Diego on Friday night.
Lance Lynn has been a solid, albeit unspectacular pitcher over the last few seasons. He will be 36 in May, and struggled this spring, allowing 7 ER in just 16 innings of work. He isn’t a player I’m going to target heavily on a full slate, but this is a spot I love for the Astros.
Lynn served up 19 homers in 21 starts in 2022, and tonight he gets to face the most dangerous hitter in the universe. Yes, I said it. Yordan Alvarez hit one last night that might still be in orbit. He’s my favorite player to watch in baseball, and I’m expecting big things again (please stay healthy!).
BvP will love to know that “Air Yordan” is 5/11 with a HR off Lynn. Alex Bregman has had his way with Lynn as well, and even without Jose Altuve, this lineup is stacked. Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Pena are two more priority plays in this stack for me. Jose Abreu is fine, but I like to differentiate stacks by swapping out 1B, and I’ll likely do the same tonight. We have to find ways to be different, especially on a short slate.
We have to pick spots on a five-game slate, and this is a prime spot for the Mariners. Gaddis posted high strikeout numbers in the minors, but has always had issues with the longball. We won’t spend much time talking about his 7.1 IP in 2022 across two starts, but as Charles Barkley would say…it was TURRIBLE. He gave up SEVEN home runs. Yes, SEVEN.
Gaddis pitched well in Spring Training, but I’ll need to see more of that in an actual MLB game before I believe in him. The Mariners can put up runs in a hurry, and I expect them to bounce back from a slow start yesterday to hang a big number here.
There are some righty-mashers in this lineup. I don’t need to tell you to play Julio Rodriguez (.233 ISO, .368 wOBA vs RHP), but I’m also high on Ty France (.179, .342), Teoscar Hernandez (.194, .333), and Jarred Kelenic. Let’s talk about Kelenic. The kid has just destroyed every level of the minors, then struggled at the big-league level. 2023 is his breakout party. I’m a leader in his fanclub. Don’t get left behind.
Small slate for a Friday, but we are just getting started! Javier and May look like the best options if you’re a cash game player. I’m high on the Astros, and I’m hoping that’s where we differentiate lineups. I’m sure the Mariners stack will be popular, and for good reason.
Luzardo is a nice GPP option, and I don’t mind Peterson either. Merrill Kelly against the overrated Dodgers lineup could be the ultimate GPP play, but one that has a low floor.
Best of luck on Friday night, I’ll be back tomorrow! Let’s take down some tournaments!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Welcome to the first edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
We did it, my friends. We made it through the winter and the MLB season is finally upon us. If you haven’t noticed yet, the game is very different this season. With the newly implemented pitch clock, the game is faster. We’ll definitely see some different things happening earlier in the season until all the players are fully used to playing quicker.
That said, it’s still baseball and it’s going to be fun to watch. We have a great 11-game slate today of MLB DFS today. With it being opening day, we have some studs on the mount so we’ll have a lot of low-scoring games. We also have some really bad pitchers throwing, so there should still be some offense.
Let’s dig and make some money!
Max Scherzer is coming off what was mostly a successful 2022 campaign in his first season with the Mets. While he did spend some time on the IL last season, when he was healthy, he was the Scherzer we have come to love. His K/9 were in line with his career numbers and he still managed to get double-digit victories, a rarity these days with pitchers not going too long in games.
Scherzer gets arguably one of the easier matchups today as he’ll face off against the Miami Marlins. While their lineup is a little improved over last season with the addition of Luis Arraez, they are still a bad lineup. The projected lineup for the Marlins today had just a .110 ISO and a .285 wOBA vs. righties last season. Scherzer should be able to navigate this lineup with ease this afternoon.
Another pitcher with a solid matchup today will be Shane McClanahan. McClanahan is coming off a very solid sophomore season. In his second season, McClanahan set career highs in both wins and innings pitched. At just $7.7k on DK today, we’ll be getting a pitcher that had a 30% K rate in 2022. I’ll take that every day of the week.
This Tigers lineup is not one that will strike fear in any pitcher’s eyes. It’s pretty weak up and down the lineup. Last season, this team had just a .129 ISO vs. lefties. The Tigers will more than likely throw out 8 righties today. McClanahan had a higher K rate last season vs. righties than he did lefties and that sets him up for a solid day today. You should feel very confident throwing McClanahan out in your lineups today.
I expect Corbin Burnes to have a monster season in 2023. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him win the NL Cy Young award this season. Burnes is coming off a very solid 2022. Like McClanahan, Burnes also set career highs in both Wins and Innings pitched. While the K’s were down a smidge from years past, his K rate was still at a very respectable 30% in 2022. I expect that number to climb this season.
The Cubs lineup will be improved this season with the additions of Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Mancini. That said, it’s still a below-average lineup and one we’ll be able to chase K’s against, especially with a righty on the hill. This projected lineup today for the Cubs had a 25% K rate vs. righties in 2022. There’s definitely some upside in throwing out Burnes today.
When I opened up the schedule today and saw that Patrick Corbin was the opening-day starter for the Nationals 2 things came to mind. The first was that they were going to have an awful rotation this season. Corbin is the epitome of a gas can and while he’ll eventually throw out a gem, more often than not he’s hot garbage.
The second was that the Braves would be extremely popular. They’ll be popular for good reason. Corbin was atrocious in 2022. He pitched to a nearly 5 xFIP and gave up a nearly 50% hard-hit rate. His 58 barrels against far exceed any pitcher on the hill today. When Corbin is on the mound, we attack!
This stack will start with Austin Riley today. He was one of the best in baseball against lefties last season, with a .336 ISO and a .435 wOBA. He should continue to smash against lefties today in a very soft matchup. Next up will be Ronald Acuna. Acuna is now far removed from the knee surgery that saw him start out slowly last season. He matchups up extremely well today vs. Corbin. Corbin mostly throws a sinker to righties. This is a pitch that Acuna has done well against, with a .375 ISO.
I also really like Matt Olson here. Never fear the L/L matchup, especially against Corbin. Olson also has really strong numbers vs. lefty sinkers. Other guys I like here will be Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud.
2022 was not kind to Eduardo Rodriguez. He had one of the worst seasons of his career last year. His strikeouts were down significantly and his xFIP was one of the highest numbers of his career. To make matters worse for him, he’ll be facing off against a Rays team that just crushes lefties. The projected Rays lineup today had a .171 ISO and a .337 wOBA vs. lefties last season. They have some lefty smashers and we’ll want to take advantage of that today.
My priority with the Rays stack today will be Randy Arozarena. He smashed lefties last year, to the tune of a .240 ISO and a .382 wOBA. Fresh off his WBC stint, he’s becoming a force to be reckoned with. He’ll be in all of my lineups today. Next up will be Yandy Diaz. While he doesn’t hit for much power vs. lefties, he does have a very high wOBA of .379. He’ll set the tone at the top of this lineup today.
My value plays in this lineup will be Isaac Paredes, Christian Bethancourt, and Jose Siri. Of the bunch, Paredes is my favorite as he showed a lot of pop at times last season. Franco, Margot, and Ramirez are also very much in play today.
The Baltimore Orioles offense is going to be a fun one to watch this season. They are much improved up and down the lineup. The rotation however is still one that is awful and one we’ll be able to attack often. On most teams, Kyle Gibson would be a back-of-the-rotation guy. For the Orioles, he’s being asked to be the ace of the staff. That says a lot about the Orioles’ pitching staff. With Gibson, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. His numbers against both sides of the plate are pretty similar.
Any Red Sox stack needs to start with their star player, Rafael Devers. Devers had a very solid year vs. righties in 2022 and he made us some money with our MLB DFS lineups. He had a .252 ISO and a wOBA that was pushing .400. He’s extremely pricey today at nearly $6k, but he should do extremely well in this matchup vs. Gibson. Next up will be a newcomer to the states, Masataka Yoshida.
Yoshida was a star in Japan and his skillset should transfer pretty nicely to the states. He’ll be hitting in the middle of this lineup today and is fairly priced at $4.4k. Other guys I really like here today will be Trison Casas at just $2.9k on DK, Reese McGuire at just $2.2k, and Alex Verdugo. The Red Sox are set up today to put up a big number on opening day. Vegas likes them a lot, and so do I!
We waited many months for this day and it’s going to be a great one. I plan on loading up on both Rays and Braves with my bats. My pitching will be focused on Mad Max and Shane Mac. This will hopefully be a recipe for success today!
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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