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DraftKings

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/19

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

In what will certainly be an entertaining NBA slate, we have a few teams on the second halves of back-to-backs while others are dealing with the injury bug. While things will surely shift dramatically leading up to lock, let’s dive into our preview. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Fred VanVleet ($8,100 DK / $8,400 FD)

With OG Anunoby out for an extensive period, Fred VanVleet and the rest of this Raptors starting unit will be tasked with shouldering a heavier load on offense. Facing a Sacramento Kings team that ranks 8th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating is certainly enticing for FVV, who carried a 25% usage rate with Anunoby out, dating back to last season. In addition, Sacramento ranks 28th in the NBA versus pass-first primary ball handlers, making this a good spot for FVV to grab a 20-point double-double.

Jalen Brunson ($6,700 DK / $6,500 FD)

With Luka Doncic unlikely to play for the second straight game, we’re likely looking at one of the highest rostered players on the NBA slate in Jalen Brunson. While his price took a drastic jump from the last slate, Brunson sported a 26.2% usage rate a few nights ago, nearly logging a triple-double with his 18/9/9 scoring line on 44.4% shooting on 18 attempts. Logging nearly 37 minutes for the Mavericks, the trio of Brunson, Porzingis, and Hardway Jr. are all in the conversation once again to be some of the most popular plays on the slate, making them a focal point for cash games.

Honorable Mentions:

LaMelo Ball ($10,400 DK / $8,800 FD)
Alex Caruso ($5,400 DK / $5,500 FD)

Shooting Guards

Talen Horton-Tucker ($6,000 DK / $6,000 FD)

Despite only playing three games for the Lakers this season due to an offseason injury, THT has made his mark in LA. Logging over 34 minutes per night, THT sports a 25.5% usage rate, where he has posted 23.3 PPG on 49% shooting, including 40% from behind the arc. While his price has doubled since his debut, he’s still an elite option on tonight’s NBA slate versus a Boston team that allows over 12 three-pointers made to their opponents.

Lugentz Dort ($5,000 DK / $6,200 FD)

While I never thought I’d see the day where I’m writing up Lu Dort, when someone’s hot, they’re hot. Coming into tonight’s matchup versus the Bucks with five straight games of 20 or more points, Dort has a 25.2% usage rate during this stretch, where he’s shot 58.8% from the field and has 24.6 PPG across 32.3 MPG. While Jrue Holiday gives the Bucks one of the NBA’s best on-ball defenders on the perimeter, their off-ball defense has been mediocre at best, ranking 24th in the league to opposing spot-up shooters.

Honorable Mentions

Paul George ($10,300 DK / $10,100 FD)
Zach Lavine ($8,600 DK / $7,900 FD)

Small Forwards

Miles Bridges ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD)

While the small forward position is awfully thin, Bridges will be in play on tonight’s NBA as he attempts to take on a weak Indiana wing defense. With a 22.6% usage rate in his last three contests, Bridges has 21 PPG across 38.5 MPG, where he’s shot 52.1% from the field, and will be taking on Caris LeVert and his 109.4 defensive rating.

Scottie Barnes ($6,700 DK / $6,800 FD)

While this is being written before the Raptors take on the Jazz, Barnes will be taking on a lot more responsibility, both offensively and defensively, in the absence of OG Anunoby. While both players are awfully similar in playing style, the transition will be seamless for Barnes, similarly to the role he played when the Raptors were without Pascal Siakam during the first month of Barnes’ NBA career. After a brutal matchup against one the league’s best defenses in Utah, expect a much better night from Barnes and the Raptors here.

Honorable Mentions:

Josh Giddey ($6,500 DK / $5,800 FD)
Gary Trent Jr. ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($8,900 DK / $8,700 FD)

Always – and I mean always – play frontcourt players versus Charlotte. One of Sabonis or Myles Turner will break the NBA slate tonight, so both will be featured here; Sabonis has been taking far less attempts since Caris LeVert came back into the lineup, but the upside remains for the big man who is still carrying a 21% usage rate across his last five games, posting a 16/12.8 double-double on 54.4% shooting, including 54.5% from deep.

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD)

You all know how I feel about playing massive chalk (highly rostered players) in NBA tournaments, but KP is once again a cash lock for us after his price barely increased from his last slate. KP led the Mavs with a 33.6% usage rate on the night in the absence of Luka Doncic, posting a 21/8/7 scoring line while taking 20 FGA, including seven three-pointers, and he gets the very same opponent in the Phoenix Suns.

Honorable Mentions:

Pascal Siakam ($8,400 DK / $8,100 FD)
Wendell Carter Jr. ($6,700 DK / $6,200 FD)

Centers

Deandre Ayton ($6,700 DK / $7,800 FD)

There are only two centers I’m considering for tonight’s NBA slate at the time of writing, and one of them is Ayton. Being underpriced once again, Ayton has been efficient since his return to the Suns lineup, posting a 19/13.8 double-double average in five contests while logging just over 30 minutes per night. While his volume will always be third in line behind the backcourt of CP3 and Booker, his efficiency around the rim makes him an elite Point/$ play.

Myles Turner ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD)

See Sabonis write-up above about Charlotte’s frontcourt; the Hornets rank fifth in the NBA in pace, 24th in defensive efficiency, and dead last against true big men. Turner comes into this one off two bad games in a row, but had eight games in a row scoring in double figures prior, where he sported a 17.8% usage rate and shot 58.4% from the field.

Honorable Mentions:

Nikola Jokic ($12,000 DK / $11,300 FD)
Jonas Valanciunas ($9,300 DK / $8,200 FD)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/18

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/18

There are only six games tonight for the NBA but it is a puzzle at this point. We have a lot of very important cogs on multiple teams that can change the complexion of the slate in a hurry. Let’s dive in and start outlining some scenarios to prepare for the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/18 and find green screens!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Ja Morant ($10,000 DK/$10,000 FD)

You guys knew this one was coming as a primary ball-handler against the Clippers and Morant scored 44 DraftKings points in the last game in just under 25 minutes. Yes, his usage and fantasy points per minute have dropped a bit with Dillon Brooks back in action but it’s still over 24% and 1.33. I do not believe that Morant is going to take a backseat to Brooks forever as far as usage goes and he’s third in drives to the hoop this year. I’ll admit that the Clippers are one of the top-five teams in allowing points in the paint, but that isn’t a huge concern with Morant. He’s too talented and he has a perimeter shot this season as he’s shooting 38.2% from deep.

The format is going to be a little different today in that we’ll lay out an elite option at each position and then talk about the If/Then scenarios, such as this first one –

IF Stephen Curry is out for Golden State, THEN Jordan Poole is a must-play option. When Curry is off the floor this season, Poole has a 35.2% usage rate and 1.11 fantasy points per minute. It wouldn’t be much of a different situation than Jalen Brunson last night, except Poole doesn’t have Kristaps Porzingis to share with as well. Cleveland is on a back-to-back and is extremely short-handed, a great spot to exploit for Poole.

IF Spencer Dinwiddie is out as expected, THEN Raul Neto and Aaron Holiday become strong punt options. I know we don’t normally dip this low, but Dinwiddie is likely sitting the second portion of the back-to-back set. Neto and Holiday will split minutes but Neto has the advantage in usage at 19.3% and fantasy points at 0.84. We’ll look to the model to confirm.

Honorable Mention

Dejounte Murray

Monte Morris

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($9,400 DK$8,700 FD)

With Dinwiddie expected to sit, Beal enters the conversation for me for one of the first times this season. His usage bumps up to 34.8% and the fantasy points per minute are 1.26, not to mention he’s generating 10.6 points from driving to the hoop. Miami is top-five in points in the paint allowed as well but Bam Adebayo is not guaranteed to play tonight after sitting last night. Beal will be relied on for nearly 36 minutes and he’s sitting seventh in points scored in isolation. The Heat have allowed the fifth-most points in that play type and Beal would have the ball even more without Dinwiddie.

IF Nic Batum and/or Terrance Mann is out for the Clippers, THEN Eric Bledsoe looks like a strong candidate. They would be down to about 7-8 players and that would include Serge Ibaka and Brandon Boston. Bledsoe shot poorly last game and we have a very low minute sample with these players out. Even if Mann is back, Bledsoe is sitting at 1.02 fantasy points per minute and a 21.8% usage when the rest of the LA players are off the court. I’ll take 20 minutes in a game against the 29th ranked defensive rating and the 12th highest pace. The Clippers are one of the most important teams of the night.

Honorable Mention

D’Angelo Russell

Shake Milton

Small Forward

Jimmy Butler ($9,500 DK/$9,700 FD)

I think we can say that Butler’s ankle is fine because he played 36 minutes last night while the Heat were short-handed. I would have some reservations about Adebayo playing since he’s missed multiple games and if he’s out, Butler has a 1.47 fantasy points per minute with Bam off the floor. The Wizards have zero chance to defend Butler tonight and they have faced the eighth-most attempts in transition. Butler is shooting 61.8% in that play type and is top 10 in points per game, raising his ceiling to 50+ DraftKings points again. Even if Bam is in, I’m still interested but could wind up spending down.

IF Curry is out, THEN Andrew Wiggins is in the conversation. I won’t be happy about it but Andre Iguodala is already out and someone else besides Poole has to score. His usage is over 29% but his fantasy points per minute are just 0.88, very Wiggins-like. Still, he’d be a lock for 32+ minutes and could be chalky so at least in cash, it’s a consideration.

IF OG Anunoby is out, THEN Scottie Barnes is more interesting because Anunoby leaves a giant hole in minutes. Barnes will almost never come off the floor and has a paltry 18.6% usage rate but 0.94 fantasy points per minute. He leads the team in minutes without Anunoby as well, so the sample can be trusted a bit more. Utah is a very tough spot but the minutes can’t be discounted.

Honorable Mention

Paul George (could be more appealing pending Clippers status)

Kyle Kuzma

Power Forward

This position is the worst of the night in my eyes. Tobias Harris is the default pay-up option and at almost $9,000, I can say I’m not that interested. Two games ago saw him record a 30-point double-double and he just managed to hit 51 DraftKings points. Harris only has 1.20 fantasy points per minute this year in the scenario the Sixers are in tonight. Pascal Siakam is less appealing against the Utah interior defense as well.

As things stand, I could be looking towards a Deni Avdija for the Wizards or Otto Porter as a punt. Avdija has been playing some more minutes and last night saw him play 25 even with Beal in the lineup. For Porter, Iguodala already being ruled out is a nice boost for him as far as minutes go because he should grab a few extra.

IF Adebayo is in and fully healthy, THEN he is a priority on FanDuel where he can be slotted in at the PF position, and even on DK, he should smash Washington in the paint with 5.9 paint points per game (Butler is even higher). Washington is 22nd in points allowed in the paint.

Honorable Mention

Aaron Gordon

Center

Nikola Jokic ($12,000 DK/$11,600 FD)

The Joker appears expensive and he sure is, but he’s got what I believe to be the best chance to lead the slate in fantasy points even if Curry is in. If he’s out, Jokic should be the favorite as he’s shooting 38.6% from deep and finds himself without Michael Porter Jr. and most likely Will Barton. In that scenario, Jokic has a 38.5% usage ad 1.94 fantasy points per minute. That is immense and we have punts already from the Wizards that can work with him.

Look at it like this – Jokic has a floor of 60 in this scenario and a punt like Neto should score at least 20. That’s a floor of 80 (roughly, just for easy math) and a 6x return on a $15,200 salary is 91.2. It’s not that hard for Jokic to score 70 and Neto to hit 25. The matchup against Andre Drummond does not scare me in the least. Among players that attempt more than two field goals, Jokic has the highest points per possession in the post-up game and the second-most points per game. Philly has held opponents to a 44.7% FG% and Jokic is at 58.9%.

IF Jarrett Allen can play, THEN he enters consideration. He’d be relied upon for big minutes and the Warriors are just 16th in points allowed in the paint. Allen is fifth in points scored in the paint and should be a double-double threat with Evan Mobley sidelined.

Honorable Mention

Ivica Zubac

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

4 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Hot Shot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Nov. 18)

Richard Masana 4 years ago

written by Richard Masana

This article focuses on 11/18 NHL Picks for both DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbooks and FanDuel and DraftKings Daily Fantasy. We analyze tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format so that we can gain an edge on the field at large. Full rankings for each position for both sites are available below.

Thursday 11/18 NHL Slate and DFS Gameplan

Welcome back to the Hot Shot for an eleven-game Thursday slate!

With these larger slates, I highly advise passing on full three-man lines but instead going with pairs of two-man stacks as the goal is to attempt to capture the top scorers on the night across multiple games.

Full DraftKings and FanDuel Rankings can be found below as well as cash game considerations for each site.

Three Favorite Lines

Toronto One “Auston Matthews“ – Add-Ons “Mitch Marner, Nick Ritchie” – DraftKings or FanDuel

This is the smash spot that the Maple Leafs have been waiting for. As of late, they have mostly been winning games with limited scoring and great defense/goaltending. On the other hand, the Rangers have been engaged in some high scoring shootouts over their last six games, the logs are 3-2 “vs. Canadiens”, 4-3 “vs Devils”, 5-3 “vs Blue Jackets”, 4-3 “vs Panthers”, 0-6 “vs the Flames”, 5-6 “vs the Oilers” and I’d say only Calgary, the Panthers, and Edmonton are arguably above the Toronto offense on that list.

If the trend continues the Leafs have a floor of four goals here and when the Leafs score four goals, chances are very high Auston Matthews and the top line are involved in a few of them. Given the superior matchup, I prioritize Toronto over the other expensive line listed at the bottom when paying up. If you want to leave Marner off for his lack of goal scoring and just roll Matthews as a one-off, that works too. You can also opt for the Toronto second line as well and pass on Matthews and I think that’s reasonable.

Florida One “Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Bennett, Anthony Duclair” – DraftKings Only “Criminally Underpriced”

Down their star in Aleksandr Barkov, Florida has adjusted all of their lines and top power-play unit and had dropped four straight games after a hot start to the season prior to a home drubbing of the road-weary Islanders “don’t remind me”. That losing stretch included a 7-3 loss to said New Jersey Devils “albeit in New Jersey”. The Devils have had a ton of rest last playing Sunday due to a postponement Tuesday with Ottawa.

Vegas sees goals here as this is one of two games with a six total as of the time of writing. I think the better betting value is on the Devils but the better daily fantasy value is on Florida, at least on DraftKings where they are criminally underpriced for such huge favorites. In Barkov’s absence, Jonathan Huberdeau and Sam Bennett have moved up to the revised top line alongside Anthony Duclair. All three are up top on the first power-play unit.

Edmonton One Two Man “Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman” or Edmonton Power Play One “Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman and/or Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins” – DraftKings or FanDuel

They have a tougher matchup than Toronto but if using Florida One and saving at defense, splurging elsewhere, I think the Edmonton top power-play unit is more doable with salary than on other nights so why not? It’s one of only two games along with Florida/New Jersey with a six total. I am not sure what else to tell you about the two big guns on this line McGod and Leon Draisaitl, probably not much if we’re a month into the season and you still play NHL. Conversely, you can also go with McDavid and Hyman who have a double correlation on both the top line and power-play unit without adding a power-play piece like Draisaitl or Ryan Nugent Hopkins. I am more bullish on stacking on Edmonton’s power play for correlation than most teams as their main guys usually get the near full two minutes.

11/18 NHL Game Odds and Totals

Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET

New Jersey Devils (+165) at Florida Panthers (-195) – 6 Projected Goal Total

New York Rangers (+150) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-170) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

Calgary Flames (-170) at Buffalo Sabres (+150) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

Pittsburgh Penguins (-145) at Montreal Canadiens (+125) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

Tampa Bay Lightning (-135) at Philadelphia Flyers (+115) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

Late Games

Dallas Stars (+120) at Minnesota Wild (-140) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

San Jose Sharks (+135) at St. Louis Blues (-155) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

Winnipeg Jets (+135) at Edmonton Oilers (-155) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Columbus Blue Jackets (-155) at Arizona Coyotes (+135) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

Carolina Hurricanes (-140) at Anaheim Ducks (+120) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

Detroit Red Wings (+145) at Vegas Golden Knights (-165) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

11/18 NHL FanDuel Individual Rankings

Centers

Auston Matthews – Toronto – $9,600
Conor McDavid – Edmonton – $9,700
Elias Lindholm – Calgary – $7,600
Sam Bennett – Florida – $6,200
Chandler Stephenson – Vegas – $5,100

Wingers

William Nylander – Toronto – $7,800
Kyle Connor – Winnipeg – $8,900
Lucas Raymond – Detroit – $5,300
Joe Pavelski – Dallas – $5,400
Evgeni Dadonov – Vegas – $4,200

Defense

Aaron Ekblad – Florida – $6,400
Moritz Seider – Detroit – $4,200
Nate Schmidt – Winnipeg – $4,100
Neal Pionk – Winnipeg – $4,900
Dougie Hamilton – New Jersey – $7,000

Goalies

Jacob Markstrom – Calgary – $7,900
Elvis Merzlikins – Columbus – $7,600

11/18 NHL DraftKings Individual Rankings

Centers

Auston Matthews – Toronto – $8,500
Connor McDavid – Edmonton – $9,500
Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton – $9,100
Elias Lindholm – Calgary – $6,400
Sam Bennett – Florida – $5,100

Wingers

Jonathan Huberdeau – Florida – $5,700
William Nylander – Toronto – $7,500
Kyle Connor – Winnipeg – $7,400
Vladimir Tarasenko – St. Louis – $6,400
Anthony Duclair – Florida – $4,500

Defense

Brandon Montour – Florida – $3,000
Ryan Suter – Dallas – $2,900
Nicolas Hague – Vegas – $3,500
Rasmus Sandin – Toronto – $2,500
Jake Muzzin – Toronto – $3,300

Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy – Tampa Bay – $7,700
Jacob Markstrom – Calgary – $8,500
Elvis Merzlikins – Columbus – $8,200

Cash Considerations “DraftKings”

Auston Matthews, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Bennett, Conor McDavid, Brandon Montour

Cash Considerations “FanDuel”

Don’t play any cash games on FanDuel tonight

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL Week 11 DFS: Tight Ends

Jason Mezrahi 4 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

Just like that and we are already in NFL Week 11. We have had a good run on tight ends and hope to continue providing value each week in my NFL DFS Tight Ends article. Tight ends are sometimes forgotten and left to the last pick in your lineup and that can easily leave you with an outcome of 0-2 points. This could be devastating for your chances of a takedown or simply cashing. Each week I will lay out my favorite options up top and the best value plays on the board as well. Once you’re done reading this article make sure to hop in our expert chat on Discord to stay up to date with lineup discussions.

Let’s take a look at our NFL Week 11 DFS Tight Ends!

TRAVIS KELCE, KC $7,100 DRAFTKINGS, $6,900 FANDUEL

I guess after last week’s performance we now know that Travis Kelce is not washed and the man is still good at football. He caught 8 of his 10 targets for 119 yards receiving in a blowout and exceeded 20 points for the first time since Week 3. He will be rather popular this week due to the matchup against the Cowboys who rank 23rd against defending the tight end position. This game has the highest total on the board with a 56.5 over under, so I will be buying shares of Kelce and the Chiefs. The Chiefs are favored at home by 2.5 and are projected to score 29.5 points. Kelce will be my cash game play at the tight end position, and I will be overweight on him for tournaments.

DARREN WALLER, LV $6,100 DRAFTKINGS, $6,700 FANDUEL

A nice pivot off of Kelce will be Waller in Week 11. Waller has been rather quiet all year and has been battling an ankle injury for the past couple of weeks. Ownership will be low on Waller as everyone will be hopping back onto the Kelce bandwagon. In cash I will be doing the same as the floor is safer with Kelce, but in tournaments I will be taking some shots on Waller as a one off. The Bengals have been gashed through the air for 260 yards and are allowing 361 total yards per game as a defense. The pivot on FanDuel doesn’t make much sense for only $200 of savings but on DraftKings the $1,000 can go a long way to upgrade another spot in your lineup.

GEORGE KITTLE, SF $6,300 DRAFTKINGS, $6,800 FANDUEL

Similar to Waller, Kittle is a nice pivot off of Kelce in tournaments. Coming off of 2 impressive games after a long stint on injured reserve, Kittle is primed for another nice performance in Week 11. Kittle gets a juicy matchup versus the Jaguars who rank 24th at defending the tight end position. This Jaguars defense weakness is defending the pass as they rank 25th against the pass and give up the 24th most points per game. Kittle has averaged over 5 targets per game in his last 4 starts and is the second option in the passing game behind Deebo. The Niners are projected to score 26 points in this game and with Jimmy G back in command of this offense Kittle should be in line for a good game in Week 11.

COLE KMET, LAC $3,400 DRAFTKINGS, $5,100 FANDUEL

I haven’t targeted players from the Bears the whole season and I would never pay up for one. But in lineups I need value Kmet makes sense. In the last 4 games, Kmet has been targeted 25 times and has paid off his salary in 3 of those 4 games. He hasn’t found paydirt all season and the confidence I have in this offense as a whole is not great. With that being said, the price is right on Kmet. Kmet has slid into the second most targeted spot since Fields has become the starter, which allows me to take some shots rostering him in tournaments. The Ravens present a nice opposition as they rank 25th against tight ends and are a league worst pass defense allowing the most passing yards. At half the cost of Kelce on DraftKings, I will be totally fine with 8-10 points from Kmet in Week 11.

GERALD EVERETT, MIN $3,100 DRAFTKINGS $5,000 FANDUEL

Another value spot in Week 11 is Gerald Everett. With Russ back at QB last week, Everett caught all 8 of his targets for 63 yards. The matchup versus Arizona is not ideal by any means as I respect their defense. But if Seattle can move the ball as well as PJ and the Panthers did last week we can see a nice game out of Everett again. Everett is the safety valve in this offense. So if Arizona brings the pressure which I believe they do, Everett should be targeted a bunch as Metcalf and Lockett look to push the ball down field. I do like this matchup better if Kyler Murray plays and pushes the pace. This will lead to the Seahawks playing from behind, which should increase Everett’s reception and yardage numbers. If Murray plays, I have a slight lean to Everett and if he doesn’t Kmet might be the better option for tournaments in Week 11.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week 11 DFS Tight Ends article and the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, covering cash games and tournaments, and we will have articles, videos, and podcasts so lock in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last minute news.

4 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Between the Benches for DraftKings and FanDuel (Nov. 17)

Allan Fabrykant 4 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

We’re back with another Wednesday Night Win Daily NHL Article! I’ve seen a lot of great activity in the chat and a lot of strong finishes as well! Let’s continue our positive trend tonight. We have a small 3-gamer for tonight’s slate. So, let’s get ready for the newest edition of WinDaily’s Between the Benches! For tonight’s 11/17 NHL slate, the slate begins at 9:00 pm ET. Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get into it!

11/17 NHL Stack Report

Colorado Avalanche 2
Burakovsky – Kadri – Nichushkin (FanDuel: $14,800 | DraftKings: $13,600)
– Going with the second line is a little different but based on their recent performances its really hard to ignore them. A good case could be made for going with Colorado’s top line despite the face that they’re missing a key player but there’s a better argument to play Colorado’s second line. Not only have they been performing better than the top line as of late but they are also cheaper. Kadri is on a six game game point streak, Burakovsky is on a five game point streak, and with Nichushkin only playing three games this season he has a three game point streak. Not bad, especially when compared to Colorado’s top line who has been a little cold as of late. Tonight they’ll be up against the Vancouver Canucks in what is most likely the best matchup of the slate. They have the highest implied goal total at 3.4, Vancouver is on a four game skid and the Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko has been abysmal this season giving up 3.33 goals per game and registering a sub .900 SV% In summation, i’ve been impressed with the recent performances of Colorado’s second line and their price allows you to fill in the rest of your line with high-priced studs.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Sam Girard (FD: $4,700 | DK: $3,800)
Washington Capitals 1
Ovechkin – Kuznetzov – Wilson (FanDuel: $23,200 | DraftKings: $21,800)
– This line will most likely be one of the highest owned on the entire slate. Not only have they been performing extremly well but there aren’t many other “pay up” spots that seem quite as intriguing as Colorado’s top line is missing their top centre Nathan MacKinnon. The Kings have generally been overperforming based on their results from last season but the Capitals and specifically this top line should hold a decided advantage over them. Washington is also coming in at one of the higher implied totals on the slate at 2.9 and Ovi along with his linemates are all among the top of their team in points and average around 20-21 minutes of ice time per game, including top power play time.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): John Carlson (FD: $6,400 | DK: $6,700)

Honorable Mention(s): SEA1 (Eberle/Wennberg/Schwartz), CHI1 (DeBrincat/Dach/Kane)

11/17 NHL Goalie Tracker

Best (Goalies to Roster)

Ilya Samsonov (FD: $8,300 | DK: $7,800)
Phillip Grubauer (FD: $7,800 | DK: $7,900)
Honorable Mention(s): Darcy Kuemper

Worst (Goalies to Target)

Marc-Andre Fleury (FD: $7,600 | DK: $7,500)

11/17 NHL Wild Card Targets

JT Miller (FD: $7,200 | DK: $5,200)
– Despite the Canucks shaky start to the season, JT Miller has been a consistent bright spot which has carried the team to their occasional success while giving 100% in every game. JT Miller is now on an 8-game point streak and has regularly logged over 20 minutes of ice time per game. He works in a two-man (or three-man) stack with either Quinn Huges or Nils Hoglander (or both). On DraftKings, you’ll also get a nice discount on the crafty forward. Overall, the Canucks have a tough matchup against the Avalanche but you can’t go wrong with JT Miller.
Honorable Mention(s): Logan O’Connor, Alex Iafallo

Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)

Centre – Nazem Kadri

Winger – Alex Ovechkin (CASH LOCK)

Defence – Sam Girard

Goalie – Ilya Samsonov

11/17 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Ovechkin – Kane – Kadri – Putting Up Points

Honorable Mention(s): Rapidfire

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4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/17

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

We have another sprawling 11 game slate after just three games last night, so the options are much more spread out. However, we already have two players that will be massive chalk and you’re just going to lock them in cash and potentially be overweight in GPP. Let’s talk about that and a whole lot more the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/17 to carve out our paths to green screens! It’s Wet Wednesday – Let’s ride!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

LaMelo Ball ($9,000 FD)

I’ve deliberately left out the DK pricing because Ball is simply too expensive, pushing $11,000. However, he’s too cheap over on FD against the Wizards. I will say they have changed so far this year, ranking in the top four in defensive rating (that’s right….the Wizards) and in the bottom half of the league in pace. However, Ball is still eighth in touches per game and he’s scoring seven points per game as the pick-and-roll ball handler. Washington has held teams to just a 38% FG% in that play type, but that can’t last. Ball has immense upside in this spot with his 1.37 fantasy points per minute and the Hornets push the pace at third overall.

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400 DK/$8,600 FD)

Brogdon just keeps on trucking this season and he’s second in the league in touches on the year. The usage is 28% and he leads the team in assist rate at 32% with 1.19 fantasy points per minute. Brogdon is also fourth in unites so it’s difficult to ever truly kill you when you’re playing 37 minutes per night. Detroit is fifth-worst in points per possession allowed to pick-and-roll ball handlers and Brogdon is tied for the third-most points per game in that play type. Everything lines up for Brogdon to score 40+ DraftKings points.

Ricky Rubio ($6,500 DK/$6,600 FD)

The bodies are dropping in Cleveland with Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley already ruled out. They might get Kevin Love back but Rubio’s salary still stands out in a major way. With that trio off the court, Rubio has a 32.7% usage rate to lead the team and 1.11 fantasy points per minute. Now, it has to be noted that sample is only 25 minutes because those three played so much but Rubio slid into the starting lineup in the least game without Allen. He logged 37 minutes and catches a Brooklyn team that got waxed last night against the Warriors. He should be over $7,000 in this scenario.

Honorable Mention

Cole Anthony (especially if Jalen Suggs is out)

Chris Paul

Value Options

Shooting Guard

Zach LaVine ($8,500 DK/$7,900 FD)

The Bulls find themselves continuing on their West Coast trek and they are also still without center Nikola Vucevic. That has been a bonus for LaVine as he has a 36.1% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute in that scenario. If there is a spot where he can flash some ceiling, the Trail Blazers are it since they sit 24th in defensive rating. They are not giving up a lot in transition right now but I’m not convinced we should believe that a bottom-six defensive rating can hold transition chances to the third-lowest FG%. LaVine has scored the fourth-most points in that play type so far and he should flirt with 50 DraftKings points.

Cade Cunningham ($6,100 DK/$5,800 FD)

Some will call this chasing the first big fantasy game of Cunningham’s career but I’m here to tell you he’s got many more on the horizon. I don’t think he’ll be too popular because of the next person we’ll talk about but Cunningham is starting to see his shooting even out. He went 10-20 from the field last time and that second number is just as important as the first. Cunningham is the franchise and the more comfortable he gets, the more games we’ll see with 16+ field goal attempts. His usage is up to 28.6% and that is tied with Jerami Grant for the team lead. His shooting still has a ways to go because the true shooting is at 43.8%. Ride the wave and know that you’re on the front of it and he’s likely $7,500 for a chunk of this season.

Jalen Brunson ($5,700 DK/$6,500 FD)

The reason it’s hard to gauge Cunningham for popularity is right here. Luka Doncic is out or this game and Brunson is carrying an absurdly low salary on both sites. He leads the team with minutes without Doncic on the floor and has a 27.6% usage rate and 1.23 fantasy point per minute. The matchup isn’t spectacular with the Suns sitting sixth in defensive rating but they are fourth in pace so far and that is notable. Really, the matchup is far less important than situation for Dallas here and you lock and don’t look back. Even in GPP, it’s going to be hard to argue for the fade.

Honorable Mention

Anthony Edwards

Tyler Herro (he could break the slate if Butler remains out)

Value Options

Small Forward

Brandon Ingram ($8,600 DK/$8,100 FD)

Ingram was on a “minutes limit” this past game and would up playing 32, so I think it’s safe to say that’s not a huge concern there. It sounds tough but their season is already on life support with their start and Ingram has to help string some wins together. On the season, Ingram has a 32.2% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute so far and without Zion Williamson, he can shoot at will like he did last game with 23 attempts. His outlook would be boosted even further if Jimmy Butler remains out and the Heat have fallen to ninth in defensive rating.

Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,800 DK/$5,200 FD)

We don’t need to spend much time here because THT is going to be a massively popular player once again. Slotting him in with Brunson and Porzingis leaves you over $6,400 per player on DraftKings and that’s a good start for cash. Horton-Tucker played 37 minutes this past game so we can easily expect 30+ tonight. He’s seen very strong usage rate at 26.5% and 1.10 fantasy point per minute. He only needs 30 DraftKings points to hit value at 6x and both teams are in the top 12 in pace.

Honorable Mention

Miles Bridges

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Value Options

Power Forward

DeMar DeRozan ($8,900 DK/$8,500 FD)

If not playing LaVine (and even if you are), DDR is a great option once again. He’s featuring a 32.3% usage rate and 1.36 fantasy points per minute while Vucevic is off the floor and Portland is 19th in points allowed in the paint. DDR has averaged a little over 20 points in drives to the hoop and pull-up shots, which meshes nicely with Portland’s below average defense. He’s been such a major component to this Chicago squad and has surpassed 50 DraftKings points in the past couple of games, proving he has the upside to justify this salary.

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,400 DK/$8,800 FD)

The DraftKings pricing is especially terrible as he went for over 55 DraftKings points last game, is without Luka, and his salary rose $400. Look, as much as we tend to dislike Porzingis chalk, there’s not getting around it tonight. He and Brunson are the first two players into the cash lineup and the real question is GPP exposure. Without Luka, KP is averaging 1.47 fantasy points per minute. Now, I don’t want anyone to get upset because this isn’t a shot. I know we’re going to hear in the Discord how well KP has been playing. That is true, but his true shooting without Luka so far in 60 minutes is 67.9%. That’s ridiculously high. On this size of a slate, you can argue that KP is not needed for GPP and that could be the route I take (meaning I’d be underweight to the field).

Honorable Mention

Julius Randle

Wendell Carter Jr.

Value Options

Center

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,400 DK/$9,800 FD)

This is a great spot for Towns as the teams are ninth and eighth in pace and the Kings are 21st in defensive rating. While KAT is not a big paint player, that may not be a big deal. Sacramento is firs in points allowed in the paint but he’ll be able to drag Richaun Holmes away from the basket. KAT only has a 25.6% usage rate but 1.28 fantasy points per minute and he’s top 12 in rebounding chances per game. This is one of the more elite game environments of the night and we should pay attention.

Deandre Ayton ($6,200 DK/$7,800 FD)

He’s not quite as appealing on FD but Ayton is very underpriced on DK considering he played 32 minutes in his return to the lineup. He’s never going to be a high usage player at just 19.8% but the fantasy points per minute is at 1.15. Ayton is also 10th in rebounding chances on the season and Dallas is 27th in paint touches. I’m strongly considering adding him to the core group for DK cash games because I would be surprised if he’s not popular on that site.

Honorable Mention

Christian Wood

Bam Adebayo (Just like Herro, takes a giant bump if Butler is out)

Value Options

ou can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: RSM Classic

brucegray19722@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Sea Island Golf Club

7,005 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bermuda

Sea Island was designed in 1928 by Harry Colt and C.H. Allison but did undergo some restorations from Tom Fazio in 1998. I always note that the main takeaway from a Fazio design is the extreme undulation that can be found throughout, but I think he did an excellent job of keeping the links-style nature about as pronounced as the day it was constructed.

One of the most notable things to keep in mind is that players will be forced to play either their Thursday or Friday rounds on the Plantation Course. Rotational events are always a little more challenging to handicap, but there are at least some similarities in green size and grass type. I’m not going to go wild trying to model both courses into the mix since I think it does more harm than good when the more critical weekend rounds are going to be found at the same track, but I don’t mind adding in some emphasis on par-five scoring since the one-off day will feature four par-fives. I didn’t do that in my model, but I certainly believe it is on the table. Wind typically plays as a factor with narrow landing areas off the tee, and it is a benefit if you can find the short grass. On average, the field connects on 80 percent of their greens in regulation when hitting their approach shots from the fairway, which is right up there with the highest GIR percentage on tour. The putting surfaces are larger than average, and we have an eye-popping nine par-fours that measure between 400-450 yards. I will call it 10 for the sake of my research since one of them is just outside at 452, but the only two outliers are the 368-yard 8th hole and the 470-yard 18th.

The last two items I feel are worth mentioning would be 8.7% more putts get made from 10 feet and beyond here than a typical stop. That is a little troublesome when building models because it suggests a putting contest, and then the distance of 125-175 on approach shots is 8.5% higher than average. All other ranges are below the median output total. Tournaments like this are tough to measure since putting plays such a prominent role, but I tried to get unique in my outlook. As always you can listen to any of my podcasts to get a more in-depth breakdown, including the one I do weekly with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck where we handicap the entire show live at 5:00 pacific time on Tuesday.

Weighted Strokes Gained Category – Easy Courses/Bermuda Grass/Under 7,200 Yards (30%) – It was a relatively even split between the three, but to me, those three stats encompassed what I wanted to find at a venue that isn’t perfect from a quantifiable sense. It also let me combine statistics together that are 1. Predicable and consistent when we get set ups like this and 2. Might go under the radar as primary pieces of a calculation.
Weighted Putting + Iron Play (30%) – I also did 30% on a recalculated metric that took proximity from 125-175 yards and putting from five feet and beyond on Bermuda greens and combined them together with a 65/35 split of putting over proximity to form a unique category there. That is the opposite of conventional wisdom when you typically do something like that since proximity tends to be more important than a random putting total, but I didn’t see a great deal of predictability from that range in past leaderboards. Yes, the plurality of shots come there, but the easy answer remains that more putts are being made from 10-feet and beyond, which naturally means irons aren’t being hit as close.
Moderate To Severe Wind (10%) – It is still an easy course, but the one true defense can be the gusts. I thought it helped to have it in my model to an extent, even if it is an outlier type stat.
Greens In Regulation Gained (15%) – I noted this on my ‘Be The Number’ podcast that I wanted to try and avoid the GIR or accuracy routes this week because it starts making the same builds as every other user. That obviously has less importance in the betting market since what others are betting has little impact on what I am going to do, but I did like this stat because of the correlation I found from past leaderboards
Par-Four Scoring 400-450 Yards (15%) – That is another outlier category that isn’t great for modeling purposes, but the fact that I have rounded us off to have 10 means over 55% of the scoring chances come in this precise zone. That has to mean something when we are condensing data into the same range over and over again.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Scottie Scheffler (10,900) – It has been a quick turnaround for Scottie Scheffler, who is just a few weeks removed from a much cheaper price tag. However, some of these spots can be intriguing when a player is marginally overpriced but comes in as one of the pivots of the range. I am curious to see where Scheffler heads by Wednesday night, but it is the same theory I mentioned with him last week at the Houston Open. My model thinks he is a negative value against his price. A positive value against his ownership. And he is the betting favorite in all H2H matchups. Not that I take that to be worth a ton, but it at least doubles down the notion that multiple outlets have him as the man to beat. I’m going to keep an eye on where his popularity goes, but I can find interest in playing him if this hovers anywhere near 10 percent.

Webb Simpson (10,700) – My model always likes Webb Simpson, and it particularly finds interest in him when he gets handed a track where he has found past success. We see that here with two top-three results over his past three showings, although it is worth noting that there have been two additional finishes inside the 30s since 2016. That technically means this might not be as robust of a venue as locations like the Wyndham Championship, Sony Open or RBC Heritage, but there isn’t a better golfer on tour when it comes to predictability at the same events yearly.

Louis Oosthuizen ($10,400) – Louis Oosthuizen has surprisingly gone ice cold with his putter, losing in four straight events and averaging negative-two strokes per start. Oosthuizen is leading this field in strokes gained tee to green over his past 24 rounds, so if he is able to flip the script with what should be the best part of his game, the stats are trending towards a big result. I do have some concerns with him for cash-game-type contests because it is always scary when what you do best isn’t working, but that can easily be fixed, especially for something like an outright ticket. We don’t need the safety in a bet like that and just want upside. As far as things go for GPPs, I am going to find myself overweight on him because of the upside he possesses. The South African looks to be the lowest-owned option of the big four, and I believe he carries as much win equity as whoever you want to compare him to for the week.

Cameron Smith ($10,300) – Cameron Smith is the number one ranked player in my model when looking for that recipe of irons + putting and is also fifth when it comes to scoring on an easy course. The Aussie has some of the most playability across the board in my mind.

Fade – Harris English ($10,100) – I don’t feel as strongly about this as I did before talking to Joel Schreck on our live show, but Harris Enlgish remains off the table completely for me in cash after withdrawing from the CJ Cup when his back flared up a few weeks ago. I can see more of the interest in GPPs because of how he fits statistically in a few areas, but I prefer him on long iron tests than these pitch and putt events.

$9,000 Range

Corey Conners ($9,900) – I guess I am all in on Corey Conners at the RSM. Here is a list of categories where he graded in the top-10 of my model. You will see it is almost across the board in every pertinent measurable, including various others that I didn’t include into my mix but still found worth looking into. I will note that OTT is a few percent more impactful here than an average tour stop. A lot of that is because of the accuracy that comes into play, but we have seen good OTT players like Jason Day and Luke List take varying routes to find success. Conners is second in the field when it comes to strokes gained off the tee over the two-year model that I run, and he grades inside of the top-10 in strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained total, strokes gained at easy courses, venues under 7,200 cards, wind play, Bermuda grass, par-four scoring from 400-450 yards, accuracy, GIRs gained and his combination of putting + iron play. When we look at just that weighted putting total, he turns into one of the biggest climbers when running a model to find how a golfer improves when putting from distance versus an overall array of the stat. The top-five largest improvements I had came from Branden Grace, Russell Henley, Conners, Matt Wallace and Charles Howell III.

Other Targets: Joaquin Niemann ($9,700), Adam Scott ($9,000) – I tend to believe Russell Henley is a better outright bet than he is DraftKings play at 20%.

$8,000 Range

Chris Kirk ($8,000) – Chris Kirk is one of just four players to grade inside the top-19 for me in all metrics that I looked at in my model. The other three were Corey Conners, Webb Simpson and Russell Henley.

Other Thoughts: Justin Rose ($8,800), Brendon Todd ($8,400) and Seamus Power ($8,200) are where I am most interested in finding additional exposure. I do like Joel Dahmen ($$8,500), but I would prefer for his ownership to drop by a few points for GPPs.

$7,000 Range

Brian Harman $7,800 – Brain Harman is GPP-only at $7,800, but he is one of the better contrarian values I can find in this group. Three top-32s in his last four at the track. The iron play is worrisome having lost in seven straight, but while the results during that time have been far from good, he isn’t exactly bombing in his performances either. Three have resulted in missed cuts. The rest have ranged from 29th to 75th. He is definitely far from my favorite play because of his lack of safety, but I do think he has top-20 win equity in this field. That means something when nobody looks like they want to use him

Charles Howell $7,800 – Charles Howell III can be fit into pretty much any build and ranks as one of the five best improvements in this field when given this specific green type.

Matt Wallace $7,600 – Matt Wallace is someone that never grades out well for me but landed fourth in my model when looking at overall rank. The best way to deploy him is likely in cash, but 10-11% is low enough for me to consider in GPPs as well.

Additional Thoughts: JASON DAY ($7,600), Kevin Streelman ($7,600), Branden Grace ($7,400), Emiliano Grillo ($7,400), Lanto Griffin ($7,300), Brian Stuard ($7,200) and Alex Smalley ($7,100) are plays I will be finding myself on in various spots. I didn’t include them with the top group because I just looked at the highest priced choices, but there is value to be found throughout in this range.

$6,000 Range

Michael Thompson ($6,700) – Twelve consecutive rounds of being par or better to go along with four made cuts. Those are huge benefits for a golfer that now draws a venue that suits his game as the ninth-ranked player in this field for accuracy and 21st at courses under 7,200 yards.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Harry Higgs ($6,900), Zach Johnson ($6,900), Camilo Villegas ($6,800), Cameron Davis ($6,800), Andre Putnam ($6,400), Davis Thompson ($6,400)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Roundtable with Ghost and Adam 11/16

DFSGhost 4 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With the NBA schedule being adjusted this season to limit the amount of travel, we’re seeing a vast split in day-to-day action between a large number of games on one night, versus few games on another. Tonight, we have three games on tap, but it all begins with a potential NBA Finals preview at 7:30pm EST. It’s Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: At first glance, I’m likely going with two studs. With Joe Harris being out, the Brooklyn Nets hold a ton of value both in their starting lineup and off the bench, similarly to the Golden State Warriors’ front court.

Adam: As we stand now, I may wind up being more balanced than anything else. That doesn’t mean I’m not going to play star-level players, but I may not force in the guys that are over $10,000 on DraftKings because we have strong plays in the $8,500-$9,900 range.

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: Things may change as we get closer to lock, but right now I will be anchoring my build around Dejounte Murray and Kevin Durant. With the former getting a matchup versus the LA Clippers fresh off a 20-point triple-double, you know I’m going right back to the Spurs’ primary ball handler. As for the latter, Durant draws a home matchup versus his former franchise, where he’ll be tasked to run the offense all night long and – surprisingly – isn’t the most expensive player on the slate.

Adam: As a peek behind the curtain, I’m writing my part before Ghost writes his portion and we haven’t spoke to each other yet. I know he’s going to talk up Dejounte Murray and I’m on board, so I’ll point out that Donovan Mitchell is under $9,000, faces a Sixers perimeter defense that includes Tyrese Maxey and Shake Milton, his usage is over 34%, and the Sixers are in the bottom 10 in FG% allowed from 3-point distance.

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: While Paul George is the furthest thing from a bad play, the fact that I can get Kevin Durant for only $100 more on DK makes me land there rather than playing one of my favorites for MVP thus far.

Adam: Paul George and it’s not that he’s a bad play, but I play GPP only on these small slates. He’s within $600 of Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and James Harden who I believe all have higher upside. As amazing as George is playing, he’s not likely to go for 70 DraftKings points as often as the other three.

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Kevin Durant and Patty Mills. While I do think Golden State covers (and wins outright), Durant will have the most amount of touches in a game that reeks of spite, while Mills’ production off the bench for the Nets will be crucial against a Golden State defense that is simply outstanding right now.

Adam: James Harden and Patty Mills. For Harden, he’s second in the league in isolation frequency and points scored in that lay typer per game while Golden State gives up the fifth-most points per game and the sixth-most points per possession. Both of these players will have ample opportunity to knock down three’s because Golden State allows the third-highest frequency of attempts from beyond the arc. Mills should see close to 30 minutes, if not more with Joe Harris out tonight and sits at 0.80 fantasy points per minute with an 18.7% usage rate. That is plenty for his salary.

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Despite Kevin Durant dropping 35-10-5, Golden State not only covers as underdogs in Brooklyn, but they win outright behind solid contributions from Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, and none other than the current MVP favorite, Steph Curry.

Adam: Dejounte Murray has the highest fantasy score of the night.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

The RSM Classic: Initial Picks

labatts2225@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by labatts2225@gmail.com

The PGA Tour heads to Sea Island Resort in St. Simons Island, Georgia for the final PGA event of the season. I purposely worded that in italics because there WILL be one more event the week after Thanksgiving. Robert Streb returns to defend his crown after sticking a wedge shot inches from the pin last year to hold off a hard charging Kevin Kisner in a playoff hole. That was actually Streb’s 2^nd win here as he’ll go for the Sea Island hat trick this week in yet another loaded field. A little known insider fact is that there are actually a large group of PGA professionals that call Sea Island home: Harris English, Patton Kizzire, J.T. Poston, Keith Mitchell, Hudson Swafford, and Greyson Sigg will all be teeing it up this week on their home course. There are also a ton of professionals that live in the nearby area as well. What a lot of the industry won’t tell you is that none of the tour pro’s who call this home have ever won The RSM Classic.

This event is actually played on two different courses. On Thursday and Friday half of the field will play the Plantation Course and the other half will play the Seaside Course. Then they will switch. After the cut, on the weekend, ALL of the players will play the Seaside course. I mention this because although the Plantation course does not have shot-link data, it’s known to be the easier of the 2 courses. This sets up for an advantage in Showdown lineups, making sure you’re getting the players on the Plantation course in the first 2 days. That said, I’m going to focus on the Seaside course as this is where 3 days will be played. Tom Fazio re-designed the par 70, 7005 yard oceanside course in 1999. Distance off the tee has basically been neutralized here, so we’ll be targeting fairway finders for sure. The course will also go back to our typical fall swing birdie fest with Bermuda grass greens.

Key Metrics (in order)

SG:APP

Fairways Gained (driving accuracy)

Greens in Regulation (GIR)

Birdie or Better %

Par 4 (400-450)

SG:P (putting on Bermuda)

3 Putt Avoidance

Easy Courses, Windy Conditions

Initial Picks

Webb Simpson ($10700) – Looks to be finding his game again after a T14 his last time out at The C.J. Cup. He also has 4 top 10’s at The RSM including 2 playoff losses.

Louis Oosthuizen ($10400) – One of the most accurate ball strikers on the planet. His form leaves a bit to be desired at this price, but Oosti is still looking for that all important first PGA win (on American soil), and it won’t kill you if he finishes in his typical 2^nd place.

Cam Smith ($10300) – This guy just continues to show up on the leaderboard EVERYWHERE. It’s a hefty price but you’re not going to find a more consistent golfer in this top tier.

Corey Conners ($9900) – We haven’t seen him in a while but he’s as accurate as they come on short courses. He’s 1^st in my model and if he brings his putter he may win the RSM.

Russell Henley ($9600) – Another accurate short course specialist. Henley has been knocking on the door every event since last year’s U.S. Open. He’s a couple of Bermuda putts away from another victory.

Alex Noren ($9500) – It’s stupid but Noren has the thing where he does well every other tournament. Coming off a T45 at Mayakoba it may be time to go back to this golfer who can get hot with the putter. Not sure I can pay this price but I’m gonna consider him when we get some ownership numbers.

Kevin Kisner ($9200) – This Georgia native loves playing this course in his backyard. He’s a great course fit here but comes in with some of the worst form in this field. HIGH Risk/Reward option.

Seamus Power ($8200) – Remember last week wasn’t a birdie fest and Power let a lot of people down getting cut after shooting a first round 75. Nothing’s broken here, he bounced right back with a 2^nd round 70. Let’s hope the ownership stays low. I’m going right back to Seamus at this price.

That’s my cream of the crop. There are a couple other guys I’m not playing but you may consider at the RSM:

Scottie Scheffler, Harris English, Taylor Gooch, Adam Scott, Joel Dahmen, and Brendon Todd.

Let’s take a look at some more RSM value.

Chris Kirk (8000): He’s playing well and going home. A little to pricey for me, but I know Sia is on him this week.

Charles Howell III (7800) – Also going home in good form. Lacks the DK scoring I like at birdie fests

Jason Day (7600) – If there’s ever a time to jump on the Spencer band wagon, this is it. He’s showing glimpses of hope and T12 here last year.

Aaron Rai (7400) – This guy is a good golfer just finding his footing on American soil. He’s finally coming around and it’s best to be early on a guy before the field recognizes he’s there.

Tyler Duncan (7200) – His recent form has caught my eye. Good history here as well.

Alex Smalley & Taylor Moore (7100) – These rookies are good. Better than their prices here in this field. I’d give these up and comers some serious consideration.

Chez Reavie (7000) – Short course specialist. A bit nervous about his birdie fest/DK point potential but at this price, all we need is cut makers.

Camilo Villegas (6800) – Great course history, and last years FIRST ROUND LEADER (hint, hint). Also part of a 5 man playoff back in 2016, and I just LOVE his story so I’m pulling for him.

Fishing with others: Lucas Glover, Andrew Landry, Matt NeSmith, Taylor Pendrith, Greyson Sigg, Hudson Swafford, and Vaughn Taylor.

I always like to give you one more, that you may not know.

Ludvig Aberg ($6500) – He’s a Swedish kid, a junior at Texas Tech and the world’s 3^rd ranked amateur. Just played The Bermuda Championship where he opened with B2B rounds of 68.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Sia’s SW is now 46-13.

WinDaily has 4 other tools coming at you later this week to help with your process of building winning Draftkings lineups. Check out our live show on Tuesday night with Sia, Joel and Spencer. Both Antonio and Spencer also release articles later in the week as well. Check back on Wednesday evening to catch Steven’s ownership article to help you nail down those final low-owned guys that’ll get you that big GPP win. As always, make sure to stop into the WinDaily Discord room to ask questions from our stellar PGA team or just compare notes with some of the other members of our family.If you haven’t already, follow WinDailySports on YouTube and via Apple podcasts to check out all the content at WinDailySports.com. We’ve been hitting big with our NFL, NBA, and NHL content and you’re going to want to be part of that. Hope you enjoyed this article.

– Isaiah

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/15

DFSGhost 4 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Another great NBA slate yesterday from the team and today’s looks even better. With numerous stars already ruled out or questionable to play, there will be a ton of moving pieces, but that’s the beauty of the sport. It’s Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,200 DK / $8,600 FD)

While the position is filled with quality options at the top of the pricing grid on tonight’s NBA slate, the upper mid range will be king. Beginning with Malcolm Brogdon, we are looking at multiple players that are underpriced as both a product of their environments, and due to injuries on their team. Since returning to the Pacers lineup, Brogdon has a 27% usage rate through his last four contests, logging over 36 MPG with a 21.3/7.5/6.5 scoring line. Carrying a 29.5% assist rate into tonight, Brogdon gets a Knicks team that not only ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, but also has a starting unit with the worst defensive rating in the history of the league, thus far.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,600 DK / $6,500 FD)

With Bradley Beal out yet again for the Wizards tonight, look no further than Dinwiddie to know who the highest rostered player on the NBA slate will be. Sporting a 33.4% usage rate with Beal on the sideline, Dinwiddie has a ridiculous uptick in volume, posting a 28.5/7.5/8.5 scoring line on 54.8% shooting, all while taking 21 FGA per night.

Honorable Mentions:

Ja Morant ($10,000 DK / $10,000 FD)
Cole Anthony ($7,400 DK / $7,600 FD)

Shooting Guards

CJ McCollum ($7,700 DK / $7,700 FD)

While Damian Lillard’s status for tonight’s game is unknown at the time of writing, we’ll assume he remains out for the Trail Blazers. As I alluded to in the section above, the upper mid range is loaded tonight and McCollum will certainly be a strong consideration in our NBA lineups should Lillard miss a second straight game. With a 31.4% usage rate with Lillard sidelined, McCollum will get all the volume he can handle for the second night in a row, despite the tough matchup versus Toronto’s 2-3 zone defense.

Tyler Herro ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

Right back to the well with my pre-season favorite for both the Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved Player awards. Tyler Herro has been a walking bucket this season, logging over 33 MPG off the bench for the Miami Heat. Behind his 28.2% usage rate, Herro’s propelled this Heat offense to new heights, taking over 18 FGA per night and will be relied upon to start alongside Kyle Lowry once again, should Jimmy Butler be ruled out with an ankle injury.

Honorable Mentions

Dennis Schroder ($6,500 DK / $5,700 FD)
Lugentz Dort ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)

Small Forwards

Kyle Kuzma ($6,700 DK / $6,800 FD)

Similarly to Dinwiddie, Kyle Kuzma saw a notable uptick in volume and offensive responsibility with Bradley Beal sidelined. A 3.4% increase in usage rate has led Kuzma to take over 15 FGA per night in two games without Beal, where he averaged a 21.5/10.5 double-double; Brandon Ingram is certainly more of a threat to Kuzma’s ceiling on both ends of the floor than someone like Josh Hart, but Kuzma’s versatility on offense will be on display no matter who he lines up against tonight. He’s a strong play for GPPs on tonight’s NBA slate, and as close to a lock, alongside Spencer Dinwiddie, as it gets for cash games.

Dillon Brooks ($6,500 DK / $5,800 FD)

While the Kuzma route is the safe – and smart – route to take with our first small forward, we’re spicing things up here with a practically unrostered Dillon Brooks. Coming back from a fractured left hand, Brooks has been simply amazing in two appearances for the Grizzlies, sporting a 31% usage rate while posting back-to-back 20-point performances, chipping in 4.5 RPG and 3 APG along the way. What intrigues the most about Brooks the most, despite being on a minutes limit, is that he has taken 17 and 18 shots, respectively, in his first two games this year, including 11 of 35 total attempts coming from behind the arc. If we’re looking to get wild on this NBA slate, Brooks is firmly in my player pool at the time of writing.

Honorable Mentions:

Saddiq Bey ($6,400 DK / $6,100 FD)
Jae’Sean Tate ($5,300 DK / $5,500 FD)

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis ($10,400 DK / $10,700 FD)

The Chicago native gets a matchup versus his hometown with simply nobody to guard him. The Bulls have been missing Nikola Vucevic tremendously since he landed on the COVID list, and tonight, it will be as evident as ever. While Russell Westbrook continues to struggle, it’s been Davis and his 30.6% usage rate with LeBron out that has carried the Lakers; he’s averaging a 26/11.8 double-double with LeBron out this season, and nobody – and I mean nobody – will be able to guard AD tonight. Whether the Bulls attempt to play Tony Bradley more minutes to match his size or go small (lol) with Alize Johnson and Derrick Jones Jr., AD can certainly lead the NBA slate in scoring.

Pascal Siakam ($8,300 DK / $8,200 FD)

With Siakam having all restrictions lifted, it’s all systems go for this Raptors offense. Last game was the first where we got to see Siakam at full strength, and he did not disappoint; Siakam had a 24.6% usage rate on the night, but played over 34 minutes, where he posted a 25/12/7 scoring line on 64.3% shooting. Slotting in at the ‘5’ as the primary roll man to VanVleet’s pick ‘n roll, in addition to being the receiver on the Scottie Barnes dribble-and-drive, Siakam will have a field day versus a Portland front court that has been decimated by small-ball bigs. Once again, the upper mid range is beyond loaded on this NBA slate.

Honorable Mentions:

Domantas Sabonis ($8,800 DK / $8,700 FD)
Evan Mobley ($7,200 DK / $7,500 FD)

Centers

Jonas Valanciunas ($9,100 DK / $8,800 FD)
Montrezl Harrell ($6,500 DK / $8,000 FD)

Honorable Mentions:

Myles Turner ($6,700 DK / $7,700 FD)
Value Spot

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/18

Thursday 11/18 NHL Slate and DFS Gameplan

Three Favorite Lines

Toronto One “Auston Matthews“ – Add-Ons “Mitch Marner, Nick Ritchie” – DraftKings or FanDuel

Florida One “Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Bennett, Anthony Duclair” – DraftKings Only “Criminally Underpriced”

Edmonton One Two Man “Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman” or Edmonton Power Play One “Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman and/or Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins” – DraftKings or FanDuel

11/18 NHL Game Odds and Totals

Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET

Late Games

11/18 NHL FanDuel Individual Rankings

Centers

Wingers

Defense

Goalies

11/18 NHL DraftKings Individual Rankings

Centers

Wingers

Defense

Goalies

Cash Considerations “DraftKings”

Cash Considerations “FanDuel”

Let’s take a look at our NFL Week 11 DFS Tight Ends!

TRAVIS KELCE, KC $7,100 DRAFTKINGS, $6,900 FANDUEL

DARREN WALLER, LV $6,100 DRAFTKINGS, $6,700 FANDUEL

GEORGE KITTLE, SF $6,300 DRAFTKINGS, $6,800 FANDUEL

COLE KMET, LAC $3,400 DRAFTKINGS, $5,100 FANDUEL

GERALD EVERETT, MIN $3,100 DRAFTKINGS $5,000 FANDUEL

11/17 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Sea Island Golf Club

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Joaquin Niemann ($9,700), Adam Scott ($9,000) – I tend to believe Russell Henley is a better outright bet than he is DraftKings play at 20%.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Justin Rose ($8,800), Brendon Todd ($8,400) and Seamus Power ($8,200) are where I am most interested in finding additional exposure. I do like Joel Dahmen ($$8,500), but I would prefer for his ownership to drop by a few points for GPPs.

$7,000 Range

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Harry Higgs ($6,900), Zach Johnson ($6,900), Camilo Villegas ($6,800), Cameron Davis ($6,800), Andre Putnam ($6,400), Davis Thompson ($6,400)

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