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NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/19

In what will certainly be an entertaining NBA slate, we have a few teams on the second halves of back-to-backs while others are dealing with the injury bug. While things will surely shift dramatically leading up to lock, let’s dive into our preview. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Fred VanVleet ($8,100 DK / $8,400 FD)

With OG Anunoby out for an extensive period, Fred VanVleet and the rest of this Raptors starting unit will be tasked with shouldering a heavier load on offense. Facing a Sacramento Kings team that ranks 8th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating is certainly enticing for FVV, who carried a 25% usage rate with Anunoby out, dating back to last season. In addition, Sacramento ranks 28th in the NBA versus pass-first primary ball handlers, making this a good spot for FVV to grab a 20-point double-double.

Jalen Brunson ($6,700 DK / $6,500 FD)

With Luka Doncic unlikely to play for the second straight game, we’re likely looking at one of the highest rostered players on the NBA slate in Jalen Brunson. While his price took a drastic jump from the last slate, Brunson sported a 26.2% usage rate a few nights ago, nearly logging a triple-double with his 18/9/9 scoring line on 44.4% shooting on 18 attempts. Logging nearly 37 minutes for the Mavericks, the trio of Brunson, Porzingis, and Hardway Jr. are all in the conversation once again to be some of the most popular plays on the slate, making them a focal point for cash games.

Honorable Mentions:

  • LaMelo Ball ($10,400 DK / $8,800 FD)
  • Alex Caruso ($5,400 DK / $5,500 FD)

Shooting Guards

Talen Horton-Tucker ($6,000 DK / $6,000 FD)

Despite only playing three games for the Lakers this season due to an offseason injury, THT has made his mark in LA. Logging over 34 minutes per night, THT sports a 25.5% usage rate, where he has posted 23.3 PPG on 49% shooting, including 40% from behind the arc. While his price has doubled since his debut, he’s still an elite option on tonight’s NBA slate versus a Boston team that allows over 12 three-pointers made to their opponents.

Lugentz Dort ($5,000 DK / $6,200 FD)

While I never thought I’d see the day where I’m writing up Lu Dort, when someone’s hot, they’re hot. Coming into tonight’s matchup versus the Bucks with five straight games of 20 or more points, Dort has a 25.2% usage rate during this stretch, where he’s shot 58.8% from the field and has 24.6 PPG across 32.3 MPG. While Jrue Holiday gives the Bucks one of the NBA’s best on-ball defenders on the perimeter, their off-ball defense has been mediocre at best, ranking 24th in the league to opposing spot-up shooters.

Honorable Mentions

  • Paul George ($10,300 DK / $10,100 FD)
  • Zach Lavine ($8,600 DK / $7,900 FD)

Small Forwards

Miles Bridges ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD)

While the small forward position is awfully thin, Bridges will be in play on tonight’s NBA as he attempts to take on a weak Indiana wing defense. With a 22.6% usage rate in his last three contests, Bridges has 21 PPG across 38.5 MPG, where he’s shot 52.1% from the field, and will be taking on Caris LeVert and his 109.4 defensive rating.

Scottie Barnes ($6,700 DK / $6,800 FD)

While this is being written before the Raptors take on the Jazz, Barnes will be taking on a lot more responsibility, both offensively and defensively, in the absence of OG Anunoby. While both players are awfully similar in playing style, the transition will be seamless for Barnes, similarly to the role he played when the Raptors were without Pascal Siakam during the first month of Barnes’ NBA career. After a brutal matchup against one the league’s best defenses in Utah, expect a much better night from Barnes and the Raptors here.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Josh Giddey ($6,500 DK / $5,800 FD)
  • Gary Trent Jr. ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($8,900 DK / $8,700 FD)

Always – and I mean always – play frontcourt players versus Charlotte. One of Sabonis or Myles Turner will break the NBA slate tonight, so both will be featured here; Sabonis has been taking far less attempts since Caris LeVert came back into the lineup, but the upside remains for the big man who is still carrying a 21% usage rate across his last five games, posting a 16/12.8 double-double on 54.4% shooting, including 54.5% from deep.

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD)

You all know how I feel about playing massive chalk (highly rostered players) in NBA tournaments, but KP is once again a cash lock for us after his price barely increased from his last slate. KP led the Mavs with a 33.6% usage rate on the night in the absence of Luka Doncic, posting a 21/8/7 scoring line while taking 20 FGA, including seven three-pointers, and he gets the very same opponent in the Phoenix Suns.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Pascal Siakam ($8,400 DK / $8,100 FD)
  • Wendell Carter Jr. ($6,700 DK / $6,200 FD)

Centers

Deandre Ayton ($6,700 DK / $7,800 FD)

There are only two centers I’m considering for tonight’s NBA slate at the time of writing, and one of them is Ayton. Being underpriced once again, Ayton has been efficient since his return to the Suns lineup, posting a 19/13.8 double-double average in five contests while logging just over 30 minutes per night. While his volume will always be third in line behind the backcourt of CP3 and Booker, his efficiency around the rim makes him an elite Point/$ play.

Myles Turner ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD)

See Sabonis write-up above about Charlotte’s frontcourt; the Hornets rank fifth in the NBA in pace, 24th in defensive efficiency, and dead last against true big men. Turner comes into this one off two bad games in a row, but had eight games in a row scoring in double figures prior, where he sported a 17.8% usage rate and shot 58.4% from the field.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Nikola Jokic ($12,000 DK / $11,300 FD)
  • Jonas Valanciunas ($9,300 DK / $8,200 FD)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

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