DraftKings

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/6

The NBA has eight total games today, split into a three-game slate and a five-game slate. We’re going to hit on both in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/6 and carve paths to green for both slates so let’s get to work! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Early Slate (3:30 start time)

Teams To Monitor 

Nets – The biggest piece of news is the status of James Harden as he was out last game with a hammy injury. I would expect the Nets to be cautious with Harden with the news that Brooklyn may ship him before the trade deadline and even though the Nets got blown off the floor, it’s hard to want to go back to Kyrie Irving. Over 132 minutes this season without Harden and Kevin Durant on the floor, Kyrie has a 32.4% usage rate and 1.34 points per minute so the salary is justified against the Nuggets backcourt. Cam Thomas is not going to shoot 11-19 for the field again but he also played 31 minutes and that is notable at the salary, as is James Johnson who started and played 20 minutes. 

Bulls – Even if Coby White and Zach LaVine are out again, I wouldn’t be too keen to chase Nikola Vucevic at a five-digit price point going against Joel Embiid (one of the best plays on the slate). DeMar DeRozan would be a different story as he has a massive 44.2% usage rate if they’re missing the number of players they were on Friday. Both he and Vuc have an FPPM of at least 1.48 so I’d just take the better matchup with DeRozan. In that scenario, Ayo Dosunmu would log massive minutes as well with a 27.7% assist rate. 

Wolves – It looks like D’Angelo Russell is back in action this afternoon while Patrick Beverly is questionable, but if Beverly is out then D’Lo becomes more appealing. I’m less inclined to pay the salary for Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards if D’Lo is active, especially when we have studs at similar price points and Embiid/Nikola Jokic at the top of the grid. 

Main Slate (6:00 start time)

Pelicans at Rockets 

Pelicans – The duo of Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas looks spectacular and I’m not even opposed to playing them together, although we do have some big studs to target as well. It’s just hard not to have at least one tonight against the Rockets who are the perfect mix of pace and horrid defensive rating. JoVal is averaging 9.2 paint touches per game, scores 9.4 points in the paint, and he’s one of four players with over 20 rebounding chances per game. Considering Houston is in the bottom five guarding the paint, it’s one of the best spots for JoVal. Ingram is always interesting under $9,000 and his 1.15 FPPM fits nicely along with the team-leading 29.8% usage rate. Lastly, Jaxson Hayes is an intriguing GPP option as he’s played at least 26 minutes in each of the past three games and two of those have resulted in over 30 DK points. They seem to be happy giving him a trial in the starting lineup, but it could end at any moment. If you’re playing the Rockets, the only real option is Christian Wood as their rotations cannot be banked on. I wouldn’t want to get too invested in Alperen Sengun because he only played so much in a blowout. I don’t think you have to force a run-back to play a Pelican or two. 

Hawks at Mavericks 

Hawks – This is probably the funnest game of the night as Trae Young squares off against Luka Doncic and fantasy fireworks should follow. I’m hoping it is reasonable to play both but we’ll see how the day unfolds with other value. Young has picked it up over the last four weeks with a 60% true shooting rate, 40% assist rate, 34.4% usage rate, and 1.37 FPPM. His salary is very appealing, as are some of the secondary players like De’Andre Hunter since he’ll be asked to play 35 minutes or more with 0.75 FPPM. I’m going to be tempted to play Clint Capela since he’s fallen to $5,700 on DraftKings. His minutes have been lower but Dallas has enough size with Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber, and others to force at least 24 minutes. Capela is never under $6,500 so even in limited minutes, that salary is crazy in this spot. 

Mavericks – The salary for Luka has racked $12,000 but how can anyone argue that with his performance in the past four games. He’s racked up 64.5, 71, 71, and 79.25 DK points and this spot should be no different. His usage rate is 39.6% without Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. in addition to 1.68 FPPM. Atlanta is still 27th in defensive rating this season and even though they have been playing better, Luka cannot be defended when he’s in the zone like he is right now. I’m not all that interested in much else from Dallas because I want Luka to do everything but Dorian Finney-Smith is always a fine last man in the lineup since he’ll play a boatload of minutes. 

Teams To Monitor

Pacers – We’ll need information on Domantas Sabonis and Goga Bitadze before making many decisions with the Pacers. If they’re both out, Terry Taylor is well in play as the lone “big man” on the roster and he’ll be needed as much as possible with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley on the other side. 

Bucks – They haven’t played yet Saturday night as I’m writing this, but this is the profile of a spot for someone to sit on the back-to-back situation. If it happens to be Giannis Antetokounmpo, all bets are off for the slate, and the trio of Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Bobby Portis are all far more appealing. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/5

We only have five games tonight and only one player is above the $10,100 threshold on DraftKings, which will make construction interesting. There are quite a few players ruled out already that will help lead us into certain directions in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/5!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Thunder at Kings 

Thunder – Josh Giddey is still on the radar even though he is over $7,500 on DK and that feels like the line to cross, even without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and facing the Kings who are in the bottom five in defensive rating and in the top five in pace. The Thunder playing a back-to-back shouldn’t matter all that much and Lu Dort will be on the floor plenty as he’ll be tasked with guarding some combo of Tyrese Haliburton, De’Aaron Fox (if active), or Harrison Barnes. He’s a hair pricey as well because we know that shot can go haywire every single game but we always want pieces against the Kings. Both players have a usage rate over 23% without SGA and an FPPM of at least 0.90 on top of it. Darius Bazley has been playing consistent minutes off the bench as well in the past three games, at least 26 minutes. That is before they played last night but at $4,300, he could be a strong value. 

Kings – I don’t think we can bank on Fox playing until we’re told otherwise by the team and questionable reads as doubtful to me. If he’s out, we can consider both Haliburton and Davion Mitchell, who is finally over $5,000. He’s been playing massive minutes though and was almost at 40 last game to go along with a 21.5% usage rate and 0.83 FPPM without Fox. Haliburton has been tough to get right lately but the salary is justified because he has 50+ DK point upside. He’s also shown plenty of downside lately so we can leave him as a GPP-only play if Fox is out. I’m curious to see what the model makes of Damian Jones as he’s played 19, 27, and 24 minutes in his past three and has 25 DK or more in the past two. The OKC interior is nothing to worry about at all and even in limited minutes, Jones could smash his salary. 

Note- The Knicks/Lakers game is not terribly interesting on the New York side but Anthony Davis is finding his groove and they need it. He’s rattled off three of four games since returning from injury of at least 57 DK points and I’m right back to the well and he should come close to 1.45 FPPPM here. 

Bucks at Trail Blazers 

Bucks – If we get the value that we’d need to feel comfortable, Giannis Antetokounmpo should wreck the Portland defense. They don’t have nearly enough size to deal with Giannis and the 1.69 fantasy points per minute is the best on the slate. When everyone is healthy for the Bucks, I tend to not play the secondary players because if I’m paying for Giannis, I want him to do it all and the game to funnel through him. The one potential value is Grayson Allen, as he’s shooting 39.2% from deep and the Blazers are in the bottom five in FG% allowed from a 3-point distance. The trio of Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Bobby Portis would only be in play if something changes. 

Blazers – We’ll need to double-check how they ran their rotation because it’s only 10:18 p.m. right now but C.J. McCollum and Anfernee Simons have my attention. I’m not likely to play Jusuf Nurkic at the salary against Giannis on the interior. Simons and McCollum are going to be bombs away since the Bucks allow the second-highest frequency from 3-point land and they are both high volume shooters who are over 39% from deep. CJ Elleby and Ben McLemore will be interesting as well but we need more info on how the rotation will run without Norman Powell and Robert Covington. 

Honorable Mention – Heat at Hornets 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/3

The NBA is chugging along with another six games tonight and this balance schedule is much more enjoyable than alternating nights with 13 games and then three games, as they did last week. We have one game that is slated to be an absolute track meet tonight and one that we want some exposure to somewhere along the line in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/3!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Kings at Warriors 

Kings – It’s almost impossible to start at any other point than this game as both teams are inside the top 12 in pace this season and the Kings are bottom-five in defensive rating. The blowout factor is palpable and I’ll be curious if the line is enough to consider. I would also point out that the Warriors just struggled to put the Houston Rockets away in a game that saw Steph Curry score over 40 raw points, so Golden State has hit a bit of a rut for the season. The status of De’Aaron Fox is once again important to how we approach Tyrese Haliburton as the most expensive King but Davion Mitchell remains in play regardless. He’s now $4,800 and we talked about it last night on the live show that the Kings needed his on-ball defense against James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Well, in steps Steph and Klay Thompson so even if Mitchell doesn’t start, he’s going to log heavy minutes once again. Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes are deeper GPP plays, but not priority targets tonight as the Warriors are still in the top 10 in defensive rating even without Draymond Green. 

Warriors – He may well be the most expensive option on the slate but this is more toward the comfort level to play Steph. As much as I love him, he was pushing well over $11,000 for a while and that is a hard path for him to really hit value outside of a massive scoring game. I’m not sure anyone on the Kings is dumb enough to talk trash to Steph and stare him down like Kevin Porter Jr. did last time out, but Curry might be coming out of his shooting funk a little bit. Over the past three games, he’s 16-34 from deep and the Kings allow the seventh-highest FG% from deep. Klay would be a pass from me at $6,000 unless we know he’s going to play 30 minutes but be aware his shot has been erratic and it has to be on for him to hit value. I would be moderately interested in Kevon Looney but over $5,000 is a little dicey, even though the Kings are in the bottom half of the league in points and rebounds allowed in the paint. 

Lakers at Clippers 

Lakers – The LA players are far from set in stone on a back-to-back but assuming it is still LeBron James sitting out (the knee is still swollen so I think it’s more than fair to assume he sits for a bit), Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook are on the table with an emphasis on Davis. His salary went down, and even if DK is insistent on listing him as a center only his appeal is still there under $10,000. To their credit, the Clippers are 11th in points allowed in the paint but this is AD. When he’s on, the combo of Ivica Zubac, Serge Ibaka, and Isaiah Hartenstein is not going to stop Davis from doing what he wants in the paint, including scoring almost 10 points a game in the paint. Let’s see how the Lakers approach it, but the late-night hammer is appealing as usual. 

Clippers – We never lie to you guys and in full transparency, the Clippers are a nightmare to project for any slate without Paul George in the lineup. It’s seemingly a different Clipper every single game and that can make it frustrating. For me, the players that stand out are Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris, and I prefer Jackson. It’s hard to ignore that Jackson is leading the team with a 30.2% usage rate and 1.01 points per minute, even with the understanding that his true shooting rate is 49.4% and the floor is certainly there. The Lakers struggle with ball-handlers so R-Jax has the edge there. Morris is sitting at 25.1% for the usage rate and 0.94 points per minute, so both are in play as a run-back option. 

Teams To Monitor

Spurs – Both Jakob Poeltl and Jock Landale are out for the Spurs and that means we should have Drew Eubanks as a primary salary-saver. The matchup is not kind since he has to face Bam Adebayo but the Spurs need some see to deal with Bam and Dewayne Dedmon. Dejounte Murray facing off against Jimmy Butler has my attention but Derrick White at just $6,000 is a fine way to fill a guard spot as well if you’re in the mid-range. 

Hawks – The status of Trae Young is vitally important to the slate tonight because if he’s out, that opens up a lot for Atlanta. If he plays, Young being under $10,000 is interesting even against the Suns. He was playing some of his best basketball of the year before the shoulder issue, shooting over 40% from deep. John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Delon Wright, and Kevin Huerter all have usage rates over 23% and Bogdanovic and Collins lead in FPPM at 1.02 and 1.07. Bogdanovic getting up to 30 minutes last game is very interesting since he’s under $5,000. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/2

We get nine games tonight and the top end of the salary grid is positively loaded with options in excellent spots. Since this is the NBA, the landscape will certainly change before lock but we can start to outline what we like in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/2!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Trail Blazers at Lakers 

Trail Blazers – The bulk of the game stacks tonight are later on in the evening and the game in the least window is super appealing since both teams are bottom 12 in defensive rating and the Lakers are top-five in pace. Both Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons are probable but the main player I’m focused on is C.J. McCollum even at $8,100. He leads in usage at 28.6% and the Lakers can’t defend ball-handlers at all this season. If the build doesn’t allow for McCollum, Simons is very interesting as well with a 26.2% usage rate and both players are scoring dependent so the discount isn’t the worst thing in the world. He’s coming off a terrible game as well so the salary is low and Simons isn’t likely to shoot 3-16 again since he’s had a 57.4% true shooting rate on the season without Damian Lillard. 

Lakers – I’m not sure there are many more uncomfortable phrases in the DFS landscape than “I love Anthony Davis”, yet here we are. Portland is 24th in points allowed in the paint and 10th in rebounds allowed but Nurkic does not know how to defense, to quote the goat Ghost. Davis is seventh in paint touches with 10 per game and sixth in points scored in the paint with 9.5. On top of that, LeBron James is listed as doubtful and when he’s out, Davis has a 29.8% usage rate and leads the team with 1.39 points per minute. I can’t stomach Russell Westbrook anymore than the actual Lakers and the only value play that I would be interested in is Malik Monk if he plays. He’s shooting 41.3% from deep this year and Portland is still 0.5% away from allowing the highest 3-point FG% across the league. 

Nets at Kings 

Nets – This is one of the primary game stacks, but the status of both Kyrie Irving and James Harden are vital to the game and the entire slate. Kyrie has not played on a back-to-back yet this season but he’s also playing normal minutes and Kevin Durant remains out. They both have over 1.30 points per minute and at least a 30% usage rate so against the Kings, both would be worthwhile investments and it depends on the build around them. If one of these players sits, the other is one of the best spend-up options on the slate. Both teams are in the top 10 in pace and Sacramento is 29th in defensive rating. Nicholas Claxton would be of interest as well since LaMarcus Aldridge is out and Claxton has 0.97 points per minute. The Kings are in the bottom 10 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint so this is a dynamite spot. 

Kings – Hopefully we get a lean on De’Aaron Fox before lock because if he remains out for his sixth straight game, Tyrese Haliburton is a strong play once again. He sporting 1.05 points per minute and a massive 39.3% assists rate in an elite game environment, and that means Davion Mitchell should start again as well. He’s played at least 30 minutes in each of the past four games and has hit over 29 DK points in three straight while he sits under $5,000 again. Harrison Barnes would be the last of the trio that I would give consideration but he is GPP-only because his production is erratic. Even in the past five games, he has two over 40 DK and one of just 12. 

Thunder at Mavericks 

Thunder – The Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander through the All-Star break so the salary looks high for Josh Giddey but he can still get there. He only played 33 minutes last game and the Thunder pulled away in the fourth so he had a few minutes shaved off his time on the court, making it easy to see where he can get to 45 DK. Lu Dort is always in play too but he wouldn’t be a cash play unless he’s overwhelming chalk because his shot comes and goes a lot. His true shooting rate is 48.9% without SGA but the usage is 26.9% so it’s really just a matter of if he can get hot from the floor. 

Mavericks – Tim Hardaway Jr. had foot surgery during the week and Kristaps Porzingis remains out so Luka Doncic will be popular and I can’t mount an argument against it. His usage rate is 39.6%, the points per minute is 1.67, and the assist rate is 49.2% when KP and THJ are off the floor and the ceiling is 70+ DraftKings points like it was last game. While Jalen Brunson, Maxi Kleber, and Dorian Finney-Smith are in play and I want to see what the model does with them, my attention is focused on a different model darling from his last game – Marquese Chriss. He went from 16 minutes to 19 in the last game and he has a 124-minute sample size this season without KP and THJ. The minutes are not secure but 1.21 points per minute at potentially 20 minutes against the Thunder frontcourt is massively appealing at stone minimum. 

Honorable Mention – Hornets at Celtics 

Teams To Monitor 

Pacers – Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner, and Goga Bitadze are all out tonight for Indy and Isaiah Jackson is likely going to be popular again. His price rose by $1,300 but he also played 30 minutes and went for 46 DraftKings points so the field is likely happy to go back to the well. 

76ers – They will still be missing Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz so the easiest route to get some exposure would be Seth Curry. Even if he just plays 35 minutes without overtime, he’s only $5,300 and shoots 40.3% from deep. He shot 4-15 last game and is due for a rebound, which could push him well over 30 DraftKings points tonight. 

Jazz – Rudy Gobert is out, Donovan Mitchell is out, Joe Ingles has suffered an ACL injury, and Hassan Whiteside is questionable. Not only could the Jazz bring us some value in players like Jordan Clarkson and Bojan Bogdanovic but the flip side is they may have nobody to guard Nikola Jokic. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life