Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/6
The NBA has eight total games today, split into a three-game slate and a five-game slate. We’re going to hit on both in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/6 and carve paths to green for both slates so let’s get to work!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Early Slate (3:30 start time)
Teams To Monitor
Nets – The biggest piece of news is the status of James Harden as he was out last game with a hammy injury. I would expect the Nets to be cautious with Harden with the news that Brooklyn may ship him before the trade deadline and even though the Nets got blown off the floor, it’s hard to want to go back to Kyrie Irving. Over 132 minutes this season without Harden and Kevin Durant on the floor, Kyrie has a 32.4% usage rate and 1.34 points per minute so the salary is justified against the Nuggets backcourt. Cam Thomas is not going to shoot 11-19 for the field again but he also played 31 minutes and that is notable at the salary, as is James Johnson who started and played 20 minutes.
Bulls – Even if Coby White and Zach LaVine are out again, I wouldn’t be too keen to chase Nikola Vucevic at a five-digit price point going against Joel Embiid (one of the best plays on the slate). DeMar DeRozan would be a different story as he has a massive 44.2% usage rate if they’re missing the number of players they were on Friday. Both he and Vuc have an FPPM of at least 1.48 so I’d just take the better matchup with DeRozan. In that scenario, Ayo Dosunmu would log massive minutes as well with a 27.7% assist rate.
Wolves – It looks like D’Angelo Russell is back in action this afternoon while Patrick Beverly is questionable, but if Beverly is out then D’Lo becomes more appealing. I’m less inclined to pay the salary for Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards if D’Lo is active, especially when we have studs at similar price points and Embiid/Nikola Jokic at the top of the grid.
Main Slate (6:00 start time)
Pelicans at Rockets
Pelicans – The duo of Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas looks spectacular and I’m not even opposed to playing them together, although we do have some big studs to target as well. It’s just hard not to have at least one tonight against the Rockets who are the perfect mix of pace and horrid defensive rating. JoVal is averaging 9.2 paint touches per game, scores 9.4 points in the paint, and he’s one of four players with over 20 rebounding chances per game. Considering Houston is in the bottom five guarding the paint, it’s one of the best spots for JoVal. Ingram is always interesting under $9,000 and his 1.15 FPPM fits nicely along with the team-leading 29.8% usage rate. Lastly, Jaxson Hayes is an intriguing GPP option as he’s played at least 26 minutes in each of the past three games and two of those have resulted in over 30 DK points. They seem to be happy giving him a trial in the starting lineup, but it could end at any moment. If you’re playing the Rockets, the only real option is Christian Wood as their rotations cannot be banked on. I wouldn’t want to get too invested in Alperen Sengun because he only played so much in a blowout. I don’t think you have to force a run-back to play a Pelican or two.
Hawks at Mavericks
Hawks – This is probably the funnest game of the night as Trae Young squares off against Luka Doncic and fantasy fireworks should follow. I’m hoping it is reasonable to play both but we’ll see how the day unfolds with other value. Young has picked it up over the last four weeks with a 60% true shooting rate, 40% assist rate, 34.4% usage rate, and 1.37 FPPM. His salary is very appealing, as are some of the secondary players like De’Andre Hunter since he’ll be asked to play 35 minutes or more with 0.75 FPPM. I’m going to be tempted to play Clint Capela since he’s fallen to $5,700 on DraftKings. His minutes have been lower but Dallas has enough size with Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber, and others to force at least 24 minutes. Capela is never under $6,500 so even in limited minutes, that salary is crazy in this spot.
Mavericks – The salary for Luka has racked $12,000 but how can anyone argue that with his performance in the past four games. He’s racked up 64.5, 71, 71, and 79.25 DK points and this spot should be no different. His usage rate is 39.6% without Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. in addition to 1.68 FPPM. Atlanta is still 27th in defensive rating this season and even though they have been playing better, Luka cannot be defended when he’s in the zone like he is right now. I’m not all that interested in much else from Dallas because I want Luka to do everything but Dorian Finney-Smith is always a fine last man in the lineup since he’ll play a boatload of minutes.
Teams To Monitor
Pacers – We’ll need information on Domantas Sabonis and Goga Bitadze before making many decisions with the Pacers. If they’re both out, Terry Taylor is well in play as the lone “big man” on the roster and he’ll be needed as much as possible with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley on the other side.
Bucks – They haven’t played yet Saturday night as I’m writing this, but this is the profile of a spot for someone to sit on the back-to-back situation. If it happens to be Giannis Antetokounmpo, all bets are off for the slate, and the trio of Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Bobby Portis are all far more appealing.
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