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DraftKings

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30

written by joeborst@zeigler.com

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30

Wednesday greets us with another monster slate that will likely be very concentrated on a handful of games as the tanking Thunder, Rockets, Pacers, and Trail Blazers are all on the slate. They will be popular targets but don’t forget the playoff teams tonight when building lineups in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

The Tanks

Thunder

Most of the field is likely to flock to teams that have strong value plays to fit in the studs they want and that makes plenty of sense. All of these games carry very high totals to start out the night before and I’m betting the two teams that lead interest are the Thunder and Trail Blazers. People will feel good about those teams going bonkers on the last slate and there are still some good plays.

Let’s start with the Thunder and assume that Tre Mann is going to play tonight instead of getting scratched 30 minutes before the game this time around. He’d be looking at 15-20 field goal attempts against a team that is in the bottom five in defensive rating this season and the best approximation of FPPM and usage rate for Mann in this situation is 1.04 and 30.2%. It’s a 208-minute sample size so it’s not the most minutes but it’s also not insignificant either.

If we take Mann off the court, Theo Maledon would be nearly must-play (he’s a strong play regardless) at just $5,400. He played 40 minutes last game and in his 172-minute sample, the FPPM is 1.24 and the usage rate is over 28%. If they are down to eight men again, my main target in addition to Maledon would be Aaron Wiggins who also played 40 minutes and would be expected to carry the offense as well. Aleksej Pokusevski is getting up there for my taste and Isaiah Roby would be hard-pressed to flirt with 40 DK points again, though I’d rather play him than Poku at the salary. Keep in mind, Roby is not very likely to shoot 11-13 from the field including 4-5 from deep again.

Key Run-Back Options – Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela

Trail Blazers

They are running a joke of a lineup right now and I’m not banking on Brandon Williams or Drew Eubanks to pay off their salaries over $7,000. This isn’t the Thunder on the other side and while the Pelicans aren’t world-beaters, they are way better than OKC and are fighting for the play-in game. Instead of trying to attack the interior with an expensive Eubanks, I’d much rather drop down a bit in salary and focus on the tier of CJ Elleby, Keon Johnson, and then Greg Brown or Ben McLemore. We still need clarity on if Brown is playing but we’re still looking at nine players in this rotation. Elleby and Johnson likely have the safest minutes but this team is committed to the tank so there are really no sure things at all. McLemore needs to be lights out from beyond the arc and New Orleans is in the bottom 10 in FG% allowed but if his floor is sub-10 DK points. I really want to see what the model does with this team before deciding, but I’m not that interested in paying the premium on this side.

Key Run-Back Options – Brandon Ingram (played 26 minutes, 30 is reasonable here), Jonas Valanciunas, C.J. McCollum

Rockets

We already know that Christian Wood, Dennis Schroeder, and Eric Gordon are out but what complicates matters is the fact Alperen Sengun is questionable. He missed the fourth quarter in the last game so I would be very surprised if he plays in this game but it has a total of 233 points and a spread under three. This could be the most popular game of the night and we’re looking at Kevin Porter, Jalen Green, Jae’Sean Tate, K.J. Martin, and Josh Christopher to carry the load. Christopher especially could be the punt of the night at just $3,900 and he played 30 minutes in the last game and went for 42 DK points. That may not be a huge surprise because when all the Rockets who are missing are off the floor, Christopher leads the team with a 1.10 FPPM and his usage rate is 25.6%m followed by Martin at 0.96. These guys will be premier punts on a slate that has plenty of studs to chase. If Sengun is out, it’s all systems go for the cheaper players.

Key Run-Back Options – Davion Mitchell (expensive), Trey Lyles, Damian Jones, Donte DiVincenzo, Chimezie Metu

The Studs

Nikola Jokic – I mean…where else would we start other than the man who’s going to win MVP again this year? Not only did Giannis possibly jump Joel Embiid last night in the voting (I said what I said), Jokic is one of the primary targets on this slate. Denver is in the softer part of their schedule and Jokic has to put this team on his back every single night. He’s playing 35 minutes some nights and the Indy frontcourt is not built to deal with his size or skill level. His points+rebounds prop will be of interest to me again tonight and Jokic is worth every cent. We touched on this in the last slate but the Pacers have a defensive rating of over 120 points since the trade deadline and that would be the worst mark in the NBA by five points during the regular season. We could get some Indy value, but I would put the other three teams ahead of them. I especially think Houston could be the best fit for the evening.

Luka Doncic – The matchup with Cleveland is more than enticing and if Luka had been playing like he is since February, the MVP race would have a much different tone. He only played 30 minutes flat last night as the Mavs wiped the court with the Lakers and Dallas is fighting to maintain home-court advantage. What is really going to challenge the Cavaliers to stop Doncic is the lack of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, who is listed as out. Doncic drives at the second-highest rate in the league and scores over 12 points per game. With their rim protection taking a massive hit, Luka has immense upside again tonight.

Dejounte Muray – It’s another monster game for the Spurs since the Lakers lost last night because right now, the Lakers are out and the Spurs are in. This is a surprising turn of events and the pace in this game should be wild as both teams are in the top six in pace and the total is 231.5. Murray has been even better than usual since the trade deadline (where the Spurs were sellers) with a 29% usage rate and 1.48 FPPM. He’ll need all the tools working to deal with the Grizzlies who just seem to never lose without Ja Morant and we can expect 35+ minutes once again. I’m not crazy about the rebounding upside here and would find the extra for Luka, but it’s not hard to see Murray lead the slate.

Honorable Mention

Heat/Celtics – This game on the surface is massive as these teams are slugging it out with the 76ers and Bucks for first in the East. However, Boston’s defense has chewed up everyone in their path since the year started and the total is under 220 points. You could argue it’s the most “important” game on the slate, but I do think we have better fantasy spots than this matchup. I will mention Bam Adebayo wince Robert Williams is out for the Celtics because the paint is suddenly way more vulnerable for Boston.

Wolves/Raptors – I don’t have Spicy P going for 40 points again so I really like OG Anunoby because his salary is not high enough for a player that’s on the court for 40 minutes. He only took 12 shots in the last game and still put up 31.5 DK because he’s going to do a little bit of everything. His defense will be needed for Anthony Edwards on the wing and if you’re in the mid-range, OG could be your man. The Raptors are going to continue to play just monster minutes and the Wolves are allowing the third-highest frequency of 3-point attempts in the league. Gary Trent is in a solid bounce-back spot as well, and the same could be said for Karl-Anthony Towns. If Edwards is dealing with OG, KAT has to be the main guy in this matchup.

Suns/Warriors – If Steph Curry was active, I’d be way more excited for this game and it’s fair to point out the spread is just 6.5 points. Still, Phoenix is in a great spot and while you can play Devin Booker any day of the week, it’s the combo of Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton that would have my attention a bit more. Golden State has had some issues with big men from time to time and when you have the Point God feeding you the ball, Ayton can do some damage in the pick-and-roll even though the metrics say Golden State has handled that play type well this year. I don’t exactly see why they’re letting CP3 play 36 minutes at this point since everything is locked up and he’s had some seriously bad injury luck, but an $8,000 Paul has plenty of upside. He’s flirting with 11 dimes per game and when it’s crunch time, he gets to his spot among the best in the league. With the salaries of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, I’m not likely to force a run-back from the Warriors.

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30

joeborst@zeigler.com 3 years ago

written by joeborst@zeigler.com

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

The Tanks

Thunder

Key Run-Back Options – Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela

Trail Blazers

Key Run-Back Options – Brandon Ingram (played 26 minutes, 30 is reasonable here), Jonas Valanciunas, C.J. McCollum

Rockets

Key Run-Back Options – Davion Mitchell (expensive), Trey Lyles, Damian Jones, Donte DiVincenzo, Chimezie Metu

The Studs

Honorable Mention

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Valero Texas Open

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

There is a ton of additional content that you can find from me this week at WinDaily. Please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jordan Spieth ($10,600) – Everyone seems to be landing on the same golfers this week on DraftKings. I mentioned this comment on ‘Bettor Golf Pod’ that pretty much any pivot you are considering should be made because the contrast between players in every zone is pretty minuscule. For me, Jordan Spieth will be one of the two options where I find myself overweight because of the reduction in ownership, and it doesn’t hurt matters that he grades as a fantastic course fit when I run my two-year data. Spieth rates 12 spots better than expectation in weighted tee to green, a category where he cracks the top-10 in the field, and he also ranks inside the top-10 in TPC play, performance in windy conditions and par-four scoring between 350-400 yards.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200) – We don’t have as steep of a difference inside the DFS market as we do betting, but don’t we believe Bryson DeChambeau would be 10 or 12/1 in this field if he was entering the week with a guaranteed clean bill of health? The price tag on DraftKings seems fair for all the uncertainties following him entering TPC San Antonio, but the sub-10 percent ownership mark is fantasy golf’s version of ignoring one of the top upside golfers in this field.

Other Consideration – Abraham Ancer ($10,300) feels overpriced.

$9,000 Range

Corey Conners ($9,800) – It has been three consecutive years where Corey Conners has graded number one on my model at this event. Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau are the only two golfers that come close to matching his pedigree inside of my data when running this for upside, and it is hard to find much to dislike about the Canadian. Sure, the ownership will be up there, but you can quickly get around it by leaving some extra funds on the table or finding pivots in other areas.

Si Woo Kim ($9,600) – Si Woo Kim is quietly one of the sneakier options on the board this week because of his enhanced price tag. Most gamers would rather play the likes of Corey Conners, Chris Kirk or Gary Woodland, but I would advise everyone to take a deeper dive into what the South Korean brings to the table. Kim ranks eighth in this field for DK points, and he hasn’t finished outside of 45th at the course in his last four attempts. I am aware that we will need better than a 45th-place showing for him to pay off his price tag, but his combination of weighted tee to green inside my model and par-five scoring gives him one of the highest ceilings in the field.

Other Targets: Tony Finau ($9,100) – Finau is a super intriguing GPP target at less than 10 percent. Don’t be afraid to take a chance on his upside.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: I am not as aggressively attacking the $8,000 range as most. The two I like the best would be Kevin Streelman ($8,700) and Luke List ($8,500), but there is a lot more volatility in this section than I would care to see. Streelman and List will certainly be fixtures in my player pool. Charley Hoffman ($8,200) has to be a name to monitor because of his past success at TPC San Antonio, but I will likely find myself moving up or down the board in a lot of spots while constructing my builds.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Sahith Theegala ($7,800) – Here is a stat that you will only get over at Win Daily this week. I ran a specific model that you can’t find anywhere to show who the best golfers in the field would be when combining tee to green and par-five scoring, and the results yielded the following. 1. Rory McIlroy, 2. Hideki Matsuyama, 3. Tony Finau, 4. Jordan Spieth, 5. Si Woo Kim, 6. Bryson DeChambeau, 7. Luke List, 8. Sahith Theegala, 9. Doug Ghim and 10. Matt Jones. I am going to bypass including Doug Ghim ($7,600) and Matt Jones ($7,000) in an additional write-up of their own, but as you can see with me taking Jones on the PGA Draftcast tonight, both are very much in play.

K.H. Lee ($7,600) – Eleven straight made cuts for K.H. Lee, who also grades as one of the better golfers off the tee.

Martin Laird ($7,500) – I don’t love the ownership with Martin Laird being over 12.5%, but the ball-striking has remained intact despite back-to-back missed cuts. Laird has gained 4.9 strokes off the tee and approach over his past two starts, but all of that has been undone by losing a combined 8.7 shots with his flat stick. I am willing to trust what the past course results are telling me for the 39-year-old, and I think this is a situation where the form is better than the finishes.

Troy Merritt ($7,300) – A few weeks removed from being one of the chalkiest options on the board, Troy Merritt has returned back to normalcy and should register as a five percent owned golfer for the Valero. Merritt has a nice combination of safety and overall rank on my model, and he is one of a handful of $7,000 golfers that grades as a positive value in all iterations of the sheet.

C.T. Pan ($7,200) – The course history leaves a ton to be desired, but the raw metrics point towards C.T. Pan finally tackling TPC San Antonio. I would use Pan as a GPP-only target.

Matt Jones ($7,000) – I know I said I wasn’t going to include Matt Jones in his own section, but I changed my mind! Jones’ combination of weighted tee to green and par-five scoring gives him a chance to provide a top-10 at virtually no ownership.

Lee Westwood ($7,000) – I mentioned an English golfer on the PGA Draftcast tonight and forgot to elaborate on who I was speaking of before the show finished. Westwood looks like he is going to be less than one percent owned.

Additional Thoughts: You can view my model to get a better idea of all the $7,000 golfers that I like this week!

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Guido Migliozzi $6,100 and Adam Svensson $6,800 are two of my favorite targets.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Valero Texas Open: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

The PGA Tour continues its Texas swing in San Antonio this week as 140 players battle at The Valero Texas Open. I encourage everyone to check out the PGA Draftcast for the course breakdown and some deep dives into this field. It’s also very important to stay close to the Win Daily Sports PGA Discord tomorrow as Steven will have some insight from the course itself along with updated weather information. And finally, don’t forget about Steven and Spencer’s article coming out Wednesday for some more analysis, ownership and DFS picks. Now, let’s get to the Initial Picks.

Rory McIlroy (11200) – The best in the field and I’m not sure it’s super close. Doesn’t have the experience that I normally prefer, but this is a pretty straightforward course and that shouldn’t be a big issue. I like the fact that he didn’t participate in the match play and I expect him to be fresh and to want to take this tournament down, in spite of the look ahead spot. UPDATE: Steven went out to Rory’s Tuesday’s Valero practice round and stated Rory did not look good. I’m keeping him as a pick, but I’ll point out that I like Spieth and Bryson as alternatives (mainly Spieth).

Chris Kirk (9400) – Great history at The Valero and great recent form. He’ll likely be very chalky, but I’ll still play him in some GPPs. He’s a pretty obvious play in cash as well.

Gary Woodland (9300) – This course requires a bit of everything and a bit of everything is exactly what Woodland has. He’s been very good lately, and yet, remains slightly under the radar. Wouldn’t shock me to see him come in here and win. Tied for 6th here last year along with Chris Kirk.

Adam Hadwin (8900) – Another guy to likely be very popular this week as the recent form has been very good and continues to trend upward. Should be a great course fit and had a solid showing at The Valero last year with a 23rd place finish.

Mito Pereira (8100) – No experience here, but a big time value with great upside. Mito has been great T2G and on APP as of late, but curiously average SG Par 5. I expect that to change this week and I’m hoping the putter cooperates as well.

Patton Kizzire (8000) – Another great value who has great recent form and finished 9th at The Valero here last year. He’s been doing very well in a lot of key metrics including SG Par 5, APP, and oh yea, DK points.

Martin Laird (7500) – He’s burned me the last two tournaments but this looks like a venue where he has some comfort based on his finishing positions. Add to that his metrics are off the charts, aside from the dreaded putter. Over the last two tournaments he’s lost nearly 10 strokes PUTT which simply awful. With that said, I suspect he’s comfortable on these greens based on his finishing positions and the PUTT historically being ok at this venue. Proceed with caution.

Matthew NeSmith (7100) – A pretty big steal in my opinion, especially if you’re going by very recent form (last 12 rounds). He has seemed to capture some of the APP play that he was known for a couple of years back and he’s also keeping it in the fairway and scoring very well on the Par 5s. That’s exactly what you want here. Finished 34th here last year. I’ll note I think Doug Ghim, Matt Kuchar and Beau Hossler are sneaky in this range as well.

Doc Redman (6700) – Much like NeSmith, Doc appears to have found some of his old game and grades out well above average in the field in plenty of key metrics including APP, SG Par 5, Good Drives and T2G. 44th place at The Valero on his first try last year.

JJ Spaun (6700) – The Secret Weapon at the Valspar finished a healthy 27th. I hear some chatter about him as people are starting to notice, but the price remains very good. I expect JJ to make the cut and potentially make some noise in this field. He’s not really a Top 10 candidate but another Top 20ish finish is certainly in play.

Secret Weapon – 50-18. See you in Discord.

Be sure to get in our Discord, watch our PGA Draftcast if you haven’t already. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Bettor Golf Podcast Presents the Valero Open

Jason Mezrahi 3 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

FSGA Golf writer of the Spencer Aguiar and professional sports bettor breaks down the Valero Open with top ranked DFS player and professional handicapper Nick Bretwisch. These guys consistently pick winners each and every week and they get granular with each play to make sure they find you the best lines in the market to take advantage of. They have developed their own personal betting models and attack the sportsbooks when they see and edge and value. The discipline and knowledge they bring to the table is something that we all need to make part of our process if we want to be a successful bettor. You will not find a better PGA podcast for betting and this one is free for all to listen. Make sure you check it out and subscribe so you never miss an episode.

Take a listen to the Bettor Golf Podcast podcast by clicking here.

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 03/29

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

A smaller NBA slate does not mean there is a shortage of playoff implications or injury news to crucial players. The Lakers are now a mere 0.5 games ahead of the Spurs for the last spot in the Play-In tournament, while two Eastern Conference heavyweights battle it out for playoff seeding that can be the difference between a 1 seed and a 4 seed. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5)

Invest in the most competitive game environments as the NBA season dwindles down. It will be a recurring theme for the next week, but the Eastern Conference race is simply too close to avoid it. Tonight, the Bucks and the 76ers have massive implications on the line for playoff seeding, as both are tied for the 2 seed, while only being one game back of the Heat for the 1 seed.

All eyes will be on two of the leading scorers in the NBA, and there isn’t a lineup I’ll make without Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight. Having scored 30 or more points in six of his last seven, Giannis is a real threat to lead the NBA slate in scoring tonight. He has sported a 36.8% usage rate during that span, posting a 33.4/11.4/4.3 scoring line on 59.1% shooting. His minutes haven’t been at a season-high since the beginning of the month, but the Bucks will need 35+ from the face of their franchise tonight if they want to keep pace in the East.

While James Harden hasn’t been lighting it up on the offensive end in the last stretch for the 76ers, I can’t fault you if you fall on him at 10.2 on DK. However, I’m looking to pair Giannis with Joel Embiid in this one. I can provide the analytics, but realistically the sheer volume that Embiid will have tonight will do more of the talking than anything else. It won’t matter if Brook Lopez, Giannis, or anyone else stands in the paint all night long – you won’t be able to stop an MVP candidate from taking this game over.

LA Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks (-11.5)

The question most will ask themselves on this NBA slate is: “Am I playing Russell Westbrook?” Truth be told, there’s no denying the volume that he’ll have with both LeBron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (foot) likely sitting this one. Westbrook shoulders a heavy 33.9% usage rate with both off the court, and has an impressive 1.36 FPPM to go along with it. However, the Mavericks are elite versus primary ball handlers, ranking 2nd in the NBA in adjusted scoring and assist rate allowed, to go along with a 108.5 net defensive rating, placing them 7th in the league. Most of the field will flock to Westbrook, but I will not be.

Since I am not playing Westbrook, I feel more than comfortable getting at least one other Laker in my NBA lineups, if not two. Both Malik Monk and Carmelo Anthony will be in for a ton of shots tonight and are much more affordable to pair with Giannis and Embiid as opposed to Westbrook, while Austin Reaves and Dwight Howard, albeit risky, make for decent value plays.

While Luka Doncic is in the best spot of any stud on the NBA slate, I simply can’t pay top dollar for a stud in a game that Vegas pegs as a blowout. If you are playing Doncic, that’s where I’d pair him with Westbrook and hope that the two go back and forth, and seemingly outscore – or at least keep pace – with Giannis and Embiid/Harden.

Teams to Monitor:

Chicago Bulls (-4)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 03/29

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5)

LA Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks (-11.5)

Teams to Monitor:

Chicago Bulls (-4)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 03/28

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With four teams either tied for first in the Eastern Conference or a mere 0.5 games behind, things will get interesting down the stretch of the NBA season. Preseason favorites like the Nets and Lakers are now projecting to be on the road in a potential must-win Play-In game, while others continue to make impressive runs since the All-Star break. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

The Studs

Tonight, Nikola Jokic will be a lock for me in every NBA lineup. As you will see in the second section of the article, there will be ample room to get two of the studs on this slate, and The Joker needs to be one of them. Every game is crucial to the Nuggets at this stage of the season, as they look to fend off the Timberwolves to avoid the Play-In tournament, who are a mere 1.5 games back of them for the 6 seed. Jokic has sported a 33.2% usage rate in March, posting a 29.7/12.2/7.6 scoring line on 61.9% shooting. With a matchup versus a Hornets team that ranks 28th in the league to skilled centers, allowing some of the worst scoring and rebounding rates in the league, Jokic is in for a big day.

Simply put, the Spurs are in a must-win spot against one of the worst teams in the NBA. Murray, who leads the league in steals, will thrive in transition versus a Rockets perimeter offense that leads the league in turnover rate. Other than sitting last in the NBA in defensive rating, Houston also bleeds fantasy points against primary ball handlers, most notably allowing one of the highest assist rates to primary ball handlers, where Murray has averaged 9.3/game on the year.

The Value

Indiana Pacers (+7.5)

Malcolm Brogdon and Isaiah Jackson will be out for tonight’s game against the Hawks, and while options such as Justin Anderson and Terry Taylor have been useful in the last week, I’m not forcing any Pacers into my NBA lineups. Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield remain active, and Goga Bitadze is still questionable, leaving many questions surrounding this offense at the time of writing.

Boston Celtics (+4)

Al Horford and Robert Williams have already been ruled out, opening up a ton of minutes in the Celtics frontcourt. Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum is a prime candidate to be rested with knee soreness tonight, paving the way for Jaylen Brown to lead the charge on offense, next to Marcus Smart, Grant Williams, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard. With Toronto having a small lineup that plays position-less basketball, the Celtics can utilize a combination of their offensive players with Grant Williams at the ‘5’, should Daniel Theis not be able to keep pace.

Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies (-10.5)

Steph Curry remains out for the Warriors, while Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Otto Porter Jr. are likely going to rest for tonight’s game against the Grizzlies, who will be without Ja Morant. Rather than looking to the combination of Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins, the Warriors offer a ton of value with Jonathan Kuminga, Nemanja Bjelica, and Gary Payton II.

OKC Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)

It will be imperative to get this game right on tonight’s NBA slate, as it will be wildly popular. Not only does this one tip off three hours after lock, but there are still players waiting to be confirmed, in addition to nearly every roster player being ruled out on both sides of the ball. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey out for the Thunder, the trio of Tre Mann, Theo Maledon, and Aleksej Pokusevski will be interesting targets, while Portland has Trendon Watford added to the injury report, opening up things for the likes of Greg Brown, CJ Elleby, and Drew Eubanks to log heavy minutes in the frontcourt.

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 03/28

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

The Studs

The Value

Indiana Pacers (+7.5)

Boston Celtics (+4)

Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies (-10.5)

OKC Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Between the Benches for DraftKings and FanDuel (Mar. 27)

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

Welcome, everyone! What a week of NHL we’ve had! We are back with another weekend slate, this one like most have different games on DraftKings and FanDuel, so be sure to check when your slate locks! For tonight’s 3/27 NHL slate, as mentioned, we have a smaller five (7) gamer and the slate begins at 6:00 pm ET (5:00 pm ET on DraftKings). Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get right into it!

3/27 NHL Stack Report

1. Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Marner – Matthews – Bunting
– Despite the fact that the Leafs are really struggling to put together wins as of late, this line is certainly not the problem. Especially when Auston Matthews is leading the league in goals and in the top ten in points. Last night, this line played a role in both goals, despite the 4-2 loss to the Habs. This line has been extremely consistent as of late and are always good for a goal or two. All three of the top liners for the Leafs see power play time with Auston and Mitch on the first unit and Bunting on the second. It should come as no surprise that the Leafs are coming into tonight with an implied total of 3.7 goals, even against a high scoring team like the Panthers. Lets not forget that the Panthers are starting Spencer Knight between the pipes, his inconsistency trouble could give the Leafs goalies a run for their money!
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Morgan Rielly

2. Winnipeg Jets 1
Connor – Dubois – Wheeler
– We’re finally at the most lopsided game of the slate and yes it’s the late hammer. Winnipeg has been ok this season but currently sit just outside a playoff spot. Fortunately for them, they’re up against the Arizona Coyotes who have consistently been THE WORST team in the NHL this season, yes, worse than Montreal, and worse than Seattle. The Coyotes have been worse than any other NHL franchise this season. They also have the stats to prove it, they sit dead last or near last in almost every offensive and defensive stat category and they’ve currently embarked on a four-game losing skid as they enter Winnipeg’s home arena tonight. Winnipeg has seen a lot of success out of their top line, especially from Kyle Connor who registered two points in their last game (including a slick short-handed goal). With his last two point game, Connor currently sits at 10 points over his last five games and that fact coupled with the Jets implied total sitting at over four, it’s really hard for me to avoid the Jets in tonight’s slate.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Josh Morrissey

Honorable Mention(s): COL1 (Nichushkin-MacKinnon-Rantanen), NYR1 (Kreider-Zibanejad-Vatrano) (DK Only), PIT1 (Guentzel-Crosby-Rust) (DK Only)

3/20 NHL Goalie Tracker

Best (Goalies to Roster)

Connor Hellebuyck
Juuse Saros
Honorable Mention(s): Darcy Kuemper

Worst (Goalies to Target)

1. Karel Vejmelka
Honorable Mention(s): Jon Gillies, Carter Hart (DK Only)

3/27 NHL Wild Card Targets

Cole Caufield
– We’ve discussed Caufield’s comeback season in previous articles but the fact remains that he just doesn’t seem to slow down. Last night he registered another point giving him 9 points over his last seven games (6 of which were goals). Although Montreal is coming into tonight as an underdog, it’s really hard to tell which team has been worse between the Canadiens and the Devils. Bottom line is that Caufield will have his opportunities to score tonight as the Devils defense is really bad and their goalie Jon Gillies holds a sub .900 SV% and a 3-10-1 record.
Honorable Mention(s): Yegor Sharangovich, Joel Farabee, Mark Giordano, Andrew Copp (DK Only)

Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)

Center – Auston Matthews

Winger – Valeri Nichushkin

Defenseman – Cale Makar

Goalie – Connor Hellebuyck

3/27 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Main Slate: Putting Up Points

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DraftKings

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30

The Tanks

The Studs

Honorable Mention

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30

The Tanks

The Studs

Honorable Mention

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Consideration – Abraham Ancer ($10,300) feels overpriced.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Tony Finau ($9,100) – Finau is a super intriguing GPP target at less than 10 percent. Don’t be afraid to take a chance on his upside.

$8,000 Range

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: You can view my model to get a better idea of all the $7,000 golfers that I like this week!

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Guido Migliozzi $6,100 and Adam Svensson $6,800 are two of my favorite targets.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5)

LA Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks (-11.5)

Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5)

LA Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks (-11.5)

The Studs

The Value

Indiana Pacers (+7.5)

Boston Celtics (+4)

Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies (-10.5)

OKC Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)

The Studs

The Value

Indiana Pacers (+7.5)

Boston Celtics (+4)

Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies (-10.5)

OKC Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)

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