DraftKings

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31

We’re back to just five games today for the slate but there is not a shortage of playoff-caliber teams that need wins. There is a clear top-flight game that we want exposure to but there are other very strong spots that need attention in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Bucks vs Nets 

Bucks – There is only one game that is over 229 points for the total to start the night and this game is at 238. If Giannis Antetokounmpo plays 38 minutes again tonight, there’s a very strong chance he could lead the slate in scoring after going for 75 DK in the last game and the matchup on the inside is far easier against the Nets, who rank 14th in points allowed in the paint. The difference between Andre Drummond and Joel Embiid is enormous and the Bucks are only one game behind the one seed. The Nets are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating and it’s not hard to see Giannis having a field day in this one. I’m still in on Brook Lopez as well because he sunk under $4,000 and he has enough range to make Drummond come out from under the hoop, which is his comfort zone. The minutes have been there for BroLo and he took 14 shots in the last game. I don’t expect that many again but you’re not paying a big salary for him and he could help fit two studs, potentially. The duo of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday would not be priority spends for me (I’d prefer Jrue) but it should be noted that if they treat this game as a playoff game, these two will play close to 40 minutes. Even with Giannis, they’re over 1.10 FPPM on the season and that could work even if Giannis eclipses 70 DK. 

Nets – Normally, I try to ground everything in this article in stats and metrics but I can’t help but feel like we get Kevin Durant on an absolute mission tonight. He’s averaged over 30 points in the two games he’s played them this year but it’s crunch time and you can’t tell me it doesn’t still burn him the Nets lost in the playoffs last year. I don’t think it’s likely that we can play KD and Giannis together so I’d still give the edge to Giannis but it’s still possible for the Nets to host the 7/8 game. Kyrie Irving has been super quiet for three straight games for fantasy and shooting 17-51 over those contests is driving that slump. That can’t last and the Bucks bleed 3-point attempts allowed so he’s on the table, but Kyrie is more of an MME option for me because driving to the hoop can be a little difficult among Giannis and Lopez. I’m not that interested in going with any other Net with KD and Kyrie soaking up so much usage on the team (well over 30% each). 

Cavaliers vs Hawks 

Cavaliers – Cleveland is down to the seventh seed while Atlanta is fighting to at least host the 9/10 game and potentially jump into the 7/8, so this is a mother massive game. Cleveland gets to face a bad defense in the Hawks and both teams played last night, so the defense may not be all that intense tonight. I keep feeling like Darius Garland is too expensive but given the situation they are in, maybe he’s at least playable. In the past month when Evan Mobley has been off the court (along with others), Garland is at 1.28 FPPM and a 32.4% usage rate. Seeing as how Trae Young is still a below-average defender, Garland has a path to 60 DK even if it’s a touch more narrow than you’d like for a player this high on the salary grid. Kevin Love may have bit us last night, but he’s far more affordable tonight and only played 26 minutes last night. With Love, you need that shot to work because he’s not going to rack up a ton of stats past that but the matchup and loss of any rim protection demand Love play near 30 minutes again. I’m going to be interested to see how the field reacts to Caris LeVert as well, who had a monster game. He scored 46 DK points on 32 real points and 11-19 for the floor, so there’s not exactly a lot that can be replicated to that line as far as shooting. However, in the past month in the sample from Garland, LeVert s at 0.96 FPPM and that’s with a 46.5% true shooting rate. His talent level is far above that. 

Hawks – We touched on this yesterday that the Cavs have no rim protection and Luka Doncic made nine shots within 10 feet and Cleveland allowed 50 points in the paint, nine points higher than the season average. Enter Trae Young, who is averaging 17.3 drives per game and scores 10 points from that play. It’s hard not to be interested when he’s under the $11,000 mark and Young is still carrying extra work on the offensive end with no John Collins. You could also very much talk me into Clint Capela who only had to play 20 minutes last night and he can take advantage of the weakness on the interior. Before last night, Capela played 31 minutes in consecutive games and cleared 40 DK points. Cleveland has nobody to stop him and I am very interested in the mid-range. 

Teams To Monitor 

Clippers – Coach Ty Lue admitted that Paul George playing 30 minutes wasn’t the plan, but it happened, and getting the toothpaste back in the tube is going to be tough. At $9,400, I’m very intrigued by George but the caveat is he did shoot 6-9 from deep. Either way, walking into 20 shots and PG13 has a 34.2% usage rate and 1.30 FPPM on the season. 

Jazz – I’m tempted by Donovan Mitchell after they suffered one of the worst losses of the season and there are not much better get-right spots than the Lakers. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31

We’re back to just five games today for the slate but there is not a shortage of playoff-caliber teams that need wins. There is a clear top-flight game that we want exposure to but there are other very strong spots that need attention in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Bucks vs Nets 

Bucks – There is only one game that is over 229 points for the total to start the night and this game is at 238. If Giannis Antetokounmpo plays 38 minutes again tonight, there’s a very strong chance he could lead the slate in scoring after going for 75 DK in the last game and the matchup on the inside is far easier against the Nets, who rank 14th in points allowed in the paint. The difference between Andre Drummond and Joel Embiid is enormous and the Bucks are only one game behind the one seed. The Nets are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating and it’s not hard to see Giannis having a field day in this one. I’m still in on Brook Lopez as well because he sunk under $4,000 and he has enough range to make Drummond come out from under the hoop, which is his comfort zone. The minutes have been there for BroLo and he took 14 shots in the last game. I don’t expect that many again but you’re not paying a big salary for him and he could help fit two studs, potentially. The duo of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday would not be priority spends for me (I’d prefer Jrue) but it should be noted that if they treat this game as a playoff game, these two will play close to 40 minutes. Even with Giannis, they’re over 1.10 FPPM on the season and that could work even if Giannis eclipses 70 DK. 

Nets – Normally, I try to ground everything in this article in stats and metrics but I can’t help but feel like we get Kevin Durant on an absolute mission tonight. He’s averaged over 30 points in the two games he’s played them this year but it’s crunch time and you can’t tell me it doesn’t still burn him the Nets lost in the playoffs last year. I don’t think it’s likely that we can play KD and Giannis together so I’d still give the edge to Giannis but it’s still possible for the Nets to host the 7/8 game. Kyrie Irving has been super quiet for three straight games for fantasy and shooting 17-51 over those contests is driving that slump. That can’t last and the Bucks bleed 3-point attempts allowed so he’s on the table, but Kyrie is more of an MME option for me because driving to the hoop can be a little difficult among Giannis and Lopez. I’m not that interested in going with any other Net with KD and Kyrie soaking up so much usage on the team (well over 30% each). 

Cavaliers vs Hawks 

Cavaliers – Cleveland is down to the seventh seed while Atlanta is fighting to at least host the 9/10 game and potentially jump into the 7/8, so this is a mother massive game. Cleveland gets to face a bad defense in the Hawks and both teams played last night, so the defense may not be all that intense tonight. I keep feeling like Darius Garland is too expensive but given the situation they are in, maybe he’s at least playable. In the past month when Evan Mobley has been off the court (along with others), Garland is at 1.28 FPPM and a 32.4% usage rate. Seeing as how Trae Young is still a below-average defender, Garland has a path to 60 DK even if it’s a touch more narrow than you’d like for a player this high on the salary grid. Kevin Love may have bit us last night, but he’s far more affordable tonight and only played 26 minutes last night. With Love, you need that shot to work because he’s not going to rack up a ton of stats past that but the matchup and loss of any rim protection demand Love play near 30 minutes again. I’m going to be interested to see how the field reacts to Caris LeVert as well, who had a monster game. He scored 46 DK points on 32 real points and 11-19 for the floor, so there’s not exactly a lot that can be replicated to that line as far as shooting. However, in the past month in the sample from Garland, LeVert s at 0.96 FPPM and that’s with a 46.5% true shooting rate. His talent level is far above that. 

Hawks – We touched on this yesterday that the Cavs have no rim protection and Luka Doncic made nine shots within 10 feet and Cleveland allowed 50 points in the paint, nine points higher than the season average. Enter Trae Young, who is averaging 17.3 drives per game and scores 10 points from that play. It’s hard not to be interested when he’s under the $11,000 mark and Young is still carrying extra work on the offensive end with no John Collins. You could also very much talk me into Clint Capela who only had to play 20 minutes last night and he can take advantage of the weakness on the interior. Before last night, Capela played 31 minutes in consecutive games and cleared 40 DK points. Cleveland has nobody to stop him and I am very interested in the mid-range. 

Teams To Monitor 

Clippers – Coach Ty Lue admitted that Paul George playing 30 minutes wasn’t the plan, but it happened, and getting the toothpaste back in the tube is going to be tough. At $9,400, I’m very intrigued by George but the caveat is he did shoot 6-9 from deep. Either way, walking into 20 shots and PG13 has a 34.2% usage rate and 1.30 FPPM on the season. 

Jazz – I’m tempted by Donovan Mitchell after they suffered one of the worst losses of the season and there are not much better get-right spots than the Lakers. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31

We’re back to just five games today for the slate but there is not a shortage of playoff-caliber teams that need wins. There is a clear top-flight game that we want exposure to but there are other very strong spots that need attention in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Bucks vs Nets 

Bucks – There is only one game that is over 229 points for the total to start the night and this game is at 238. If Giannis Antetokounmpo plays 38 minutes again tonight, there’s a very strong chance he could lead the slate in scoring after going for 75 DK in the last game and the matchup on the inside is far easier against the Nets, who rank 14th in points allowed in the paint. The difference between Andre Drummond and Joel Embiid is enormous and the Bucks are only one game behind the one seed. The Nets are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating and it’s not hard to see Giannis having a field day in this one. I’m still in on Brook Lopez as well because he sunk under $4,000 and he has enough range to make Drummond come out from under the hoop, which is his comfort zone. The minutes have been there for BroLo and he took 14 shots in the last game. I don’t expect that many again but you’re not paying a big salary for him and he could help fit two studs, potentially. The duo of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday would not be priority spends for me (I’d prefer Jrue) but it should be noted that if they treat this game as a playoff game, these two will play close to 40 minutes. Even with Giannis, they’re over 1.10 FPPM on the season and that could work even if Giannis eclipses 70 DK. 

Nets – Normally, I try to ground everything in this article in stats and metrics but I can’t help but feel like we get Kevin Durant on an absolute mission tonight. He’s averaged over 30 points in the two games he’s played them this year but it’s crunch time and you can’t tell me it doesn’t still burn him the Nets lost in the playoffs last year. I don’t think it’s likely that we can play KD and Giannis together so I’d still give the edge to Giannis but it’s still possible for the Nets to host the 7/8 game. Kyrie Irving has been super quiet for three straight games for fantasy and shooting 17-51 over those contests is driving that slump. That can’t last and the Bucks bleed 3-point attempts allowed so he’s on the table, but Kyrie is more of an MME option for me because driving to the hoop can be a little difficult among Giannis and Lopez. I’m not that interested in going with any other Net with KD and Kyrie soaking up so much usage on the team (well over 30% each). 

Cavaliers vs Hawks 

Cavaliers – Cleveland is down to the seventh seed while Atlanta is fighting to at least host the 9/10 game and potentially jump into the 7/8, so this is a mother massive game. Cleveland gets to face a bad defense in the Hawks and both teams played last night, so the defense may not be all that intense tonight. I keep feeling like Darius Garland is too expensive but given the situation they are in, maybe he’s at least playable. In the past month when Evan Mobley has been off the court (along with others), Garland is at 1.28 FPPM and a 32.4% usage rate. Seeing as how Trae Young is still a below-average defender, Garland has a path to 60 DK even if it’s a touch more narrow than you’d like for a player this high on the salary grid. Kevin Love may have bit us last night, but he’s far more affordable tonight and only played 26 minutes last night. With Love, you need that shot to work because he’s not going to rack up a ton of stats past that but the matchup and loss of any rim protection demand Love play near 30 minutes again. I’m going to be interested to see how the field reacts to Caris LeVert as well, who had a monster game. He scored 46 DK points on 32 real points and 11-19 for the floor, so there’s not exactly a lot that can be replicated to that line as far as shooting. However, in the past month in the sample from Garland, LeVert s at 0.96 FPPM and that’s with a 46.5% true shooting rate. His talent level is far above that. 

Hawks – We touched on this yesterday that the Cavs have no rim protection and Luka Doncic made nine shots within 10 feet and Cleveland allowed 50 points in the paint, nine points higher than the season average. Enter Trae Young, who is averaging 17.3 drives per game and scores 10 points from that play. It’s hard not to be interested when he’s under the $11,000 mark and Young is still carrying extra work on the offensive end with no John Collins. You could also very much talk me into Clint Capela who only had to play 20 minutes last night and he can take advantage of the weakness on the interior. Before last night, Capela played 31 minutes in consecutive games and cleared 40 DK points. Cleveland has nobody to stop him and I am very interested in the mid-range. 

Teams To Monitor 

Clippers – Coach Ty Lue admitted that Paul George playing 30 minutes wasn’t the plan, but it happened, and getting the toothpaste back in the tube is going to be tough. At $9,400, I’m very intrigued by George but the caveat is he did shoot 6-9 from deep. Either way, walking into 20 shots and PG13 has a 34.2% usage rate and 1.30 FPPM on the season. 

Jazz – I’m tempted by Donovan Mitchell after they suffered one of the worst losses of the season and there are not much better get-right spots than the Lakers. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30

Wednesday greets us with another monster slate that will likely be very concentrated on a handful of games as the tanking Thunder, Rockets, Pacers, and Trail Blazers are all on the slate. They will be popular targets but don’t forget the playoff teams tonight when building lineups in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

The Tanks 

Thunder 

Most of the field is likely to flock to teams that have strong value plays to fit in the studs they want and that makes plenty of sense. All of these games carry very high totals to start out the night before and I’m betting the two teams that lead interest are the Thunder and Trail Blazers. People will feel good about those teams going bonkers on the last slate and there are still some good plays. 

Let’s start with the Thunder and assume that Tre Mann is going to play tonight instead of getting scratched 30 minutes before the game this time around. He’d be looking at 15-20 field goal attempts against a team that is in the bottom five in defensive rating this season and the best approximation of FPPM and usage rate for Mann in this situation is 1.04 and 30.2%. It’s a 208-minute sample size so it’s not the most minutes but it’s also not insignificant either. 

If we take Mann off the court, Theo Maledon would be nearly must-play (he’s a strong play regardless) at just $5,400. He played 40 minutes last game and in his 172-minute sample, the FPPM is 1.24 and the usage rate is over 28%. If they are down to eight men again, my main target in addition to Maledon would be Aaron Wiggins who also played 40 minutes and would be expected to carry the offense as well. Aleksej Pokusevski is getting up there for my taste and Isaiah Roby would be hard-pressed to flirt with 40 DK points again, though I’d rather play him than Poku at the salary. Keep in mind, Roby is not very likely to shoot 11-13 from the field including 4-5 from deep again. 

Key Run-Back Options – Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela 

Trail Blazers 

They are running a joke of a lineup right now and I’m not banking on Brandon Williams or Drew Eubanks to pay off their salaries over $7,000. This isn’t the Thunder on the other side and while the Pelicans aren’t world-beaters, they are way better than OKC and are fighting for the play-in game. Instead of trying to attack the interior with an expensive Eubanks, I’d much rather drop down a bit in salary and focus on the tier of CJ Elleby, Keon Johnson, and then Greg Brown or Ben McLemore. We still need clarity on if Brown is playing but we’re still looking at nine players in this rotation. Elleby and Johnson likely have the safest minutes but this team is committed to the tank so there are really no sure things at all. McLemore needs to be lights out from beyond the arc and New Orleans is in the bottom 10 in FG% allowed but if his floor is sub-10 DK points. I really want to see what the model does with this team before deciding, but I’m not that interested in paying the premium on this side. 

Key Run-Back Options – Brandon Ingram (played 26 minutes, 30 is reasonable here), Jonas Valanciunas, C.J. McCollum 

Rockets 

We already know that Christian Wood, Dennis Schroeder, and Eric Gordon are out but what complicates matters is the fact Alperen Sengun is questionable. He missed the fourth quarter in the last game so I would be very surprised if he plays in this game but it has a total of 233 points and a spread under three. This could be the most popular game of the night and we’re looking at Kevin Porter, Jalen Green, Jae’Sean Tate, K.J. Martin, and Josh Christopher to carry the load. Christopher especially could be the punt of the night at just $3,900 and he played 30 minutes in the last game and went for 42 DK points. That may not be a huge surprise because when all the Rockets who are missing are off the floor, Christopher leads the team with a 1.10 FPPM and his usage rate is 25.6%m followed by Martin at 0.96. These guys will be premier punts on a slate that has plenty of studs to chase. If Sengun is out, it’s all systems go for the cheaper players. 

Key Run-Back Options – Davion Mitchell (expensive), Trey Lyles, Damian Jones, Donte DiVincenzo, Chimezie Metu

The Studs 

Nikola Jokic – I mean…where else would we start other than the man who’s going to win MVP again this year? Not only did Giannis possibly jump Joel Embiid last night in the voting (I said what I said), Jokic is one of the primary targets on this slate. Denver is in the softer part of their schedule and Jokic has to put this team on his back every single night. He’s playing 35 minutes some nights and the Indy frontcourt is not built to deal with his size or skill level. His points+rebounds prop will be of interest to me again tonight and Jokic is worth every cent. We touched on this in the last slate but the Pacers have a defensive rating of over 120 points since the trade deadline and that would be the worst mark in the NBA by five points during the regular season. We could get some Indy value, but I would put the other three teams ahead of them. I especially think Houston could be the best fit for the evening. 

Luka Doncic – The matchup with Cleveland is more than enticing and if Luka had been playing like he is since February, the MVP race would have a much different tone. He only played 30 minutes flat last night as the Mavs wiped the court with the Lakers and Dallas is fighting to maintain home-court advantage. What is really going to challenge the Cavaliers to stop Doncic is the lack of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, who is listed as out. Doncic drives at the second-highest rate in the league and scores over 12 points per game. With their rim protection taking a massive hit, Luka has immense upside again tonight. 

Dejounte Muray – It’s another monster game for the Spurs since the Lakers lost last night because right now, the Lakers are out and the Spurs are in. This is a surprising turn of events and the pace in this game should be wild as both teams are in the top six in pace and the total is 231.5. Murray has been even better than usual since the trade deadline (where the Spurs were sellers) with a 29% usage rate and 1.48 FPPM. He’ll need all the tools working to deal with the Grizzlies who just seem to never lose without Ja Morant and we can expect 35+ minutes once again. I’m not crazy about the rebounding upside here and would find the extra for Luka, but it’s not hard to see Murray lead the slate. 

Honorable Mention 

Heat/Celtics – This game on the surface is massive as these teams are slugging it out with the 76ers and Bucks for first in the East. However, Boston’s defense has chewed up everyone in their path since the year started and the total is under 220 points. You could argue it’s the most “important” game on the slate, but I do think we have better fantasy spots than this matchup. I will mention Bam Adebayo wince Robert Williams is out for the Celtics because the paint is suddenly way more vulnerable for Boston. 

Wolves/Raptors – I don’t have Spicy P going for 40 points again so I really like OG Anunoby because his salary is not high enough for a player that’s on the court for 40 minutes. He only took 12 shots in the last game and still put up 31.5 DK because he’s going to do a little bit of everything. His defense will be needed for Anthony Edwards on the wing and if you’re in the mid-range, OG could be your man. The Raptors are going to continue to play just monster minutes and the Wolves are allowing the third-highest frequency of 3-point attempts in the league. Gary Trent is in a solid bounce-back spot as well, and the same could be said for Karl-Anthony Towns. If Edwards is dealing with OG, KAT has to be the main guy in this matchup. 

Suns/Warriors – If Steph Curry was active, I’d be way more excited for this game and it’s fair to point out the spread is just 6.5 points. Still, Phoenix is in a great spot and while you can play Devin Booker any day of the week, it’s the combo of Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton that would have my attention a bit more. Golden State has had some issues with big men from time to time and when you have the Point God feeding you the ball, Ayton can do some damage in the pick-and-roll even though the metrics say Golden State has handled that play type well this year. I don’t exactly see why they’re letting CP3 play 36 minutes at this point since everything is locked up and he’s had some seriously bad injury luck, but an $8,000 Paul has plenty of upside. He’s flirting with 11 dimes per game and when it’s crunch time, he gets to his spot among the best in the league. With the salaries of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, I’m not likely to force a run-back from the Warriors. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life